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Erik Karlsson

Erik Karlsson On The Trade Block?

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Erik Karlsson’s recent comments combined with the Ottawa Senators’ ongoing struggles has created a rumor firestorm that isn’t likely to die down any time soon. The Senators are 1-8-1 in their last ten games and are sinking further and further out of playoff contention this season. Owner Eugene Melnyk is unsurprisingly sensitive right now and Karlsson stating that he would not take a discount to re-sign in Ottawa when his contract expires after next season has rubbed Melnyk the wrong way, according to Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman and Nick Kypreos.

That does not mean that Karlsson is being traded right away or even that the Senators plan to trade him at all. However, steps are being taken to allow a potential Karlsson trade to happen. Sportsnet reports that the Senators have asked all of their players with modified no-trade clauses  – Karlsson, Bobby Ryan, Mike Hoffman, Derick Brassard, Zack Smith, Alexandre Burrows, Nate Thompson, Clarke MacArthur, Dion Phaneuf, and Johnny Oduya – to submit their lists of team they would or would not be traded to, per the terms of each individual clause. For Karlsson, he has a a ten-team no-trade list that will now be on record for the Senators and GM Pierre Dorion, should they choose to make a move.

In the opinion of Kypreos, a move should be made and it should be made soon. Karlsson’s market value, the team’s poor performance, and the Senator’s relatively low revenue and unwillingness to spend to the salary cap ceiling all make a Karlsson extension extremely unlikely. Rather than wait until next season for Karlsson to become just a rental player, Kypreos believes that a trade should be made by this summer and the earlier the better. It is hard to imagine Ottawa getting a fair return for arguably the best defenseman in the NHL, but they will surely get a better deal trading Karlsson this season instead of next.

Yet, the public relations train for the Senators will keep rolling. No one will make it known that Karlsson is trade bait until an actual deal is finalized. The team has enough issues that they don’t need their best player disgruntled and the locker room in disarray. Karlsson being traded is a real possibility, but you won’t hear it from Melnyk or anyone else in Ottawa any time soon.

Poll: Which Top Name Would You Rather Spend Free Agent Money On?

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John Tavares is still a pending unrestricted free agent. Every team in the NHL is keeping an eye on that situation, eager to know whether free agency will get its biggest star in quite some time (perhaps ever) when the calendar turns to July 1st. Chatter has already begun about the superstar class of 2019, headlined by Drew Doughty, Erik Karlsson, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Tyler Seguin, Logan Couture, Jeff Skinner and many, many more. Those discussions won’t stop anytime soon, as there are sure to be at least a few names that aren’t re-signed early.

Still, after some of the initial dreaming dies down teams have to start realistically figuring out if they can afford a superstar at the UFA premium. Not every team can pay Connor McDavid $12.5MM per season, even if he’s worth every penny. That question has been asked recently about Ottawa in particular, as the team has historically needed to keep player salaries relatively low. If Karlsson pushes the very limit of his value, Ottawa might not be able to afford him.

So, let’s try a hypothetical. If the trio of Tavares, Doughty and Karlsson all hit the market at the same time and were commanding around the same money/term, which one would you go after? Where would you want your money tied up? Vote for the player you’d most want to sign, but then also explain in the comments below the answer to another question. Would you rather spend big (big) money on forwards or defense in free agency?

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Ottawa Senators Plummet While Trade Speculation Heats Up

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The Ottawa Senators were within a goal of the Stanley Cup Final last season. On the backs of heroic performances by Erik Karlsson and Craig Anderson, a trapping, defensive team pushed the Pittsburgh Penguins to the brink of elimination before bowing out in double overtime of game seven. That had fans of the team excited about this season, and pushing for GM Pierre Dorion to add to a team that was close to the Stanley Cup.

As former NHL executive Frank Provenzano notes for The Athletic though, thinking your team is close to winning it all after one unexpected playoff run can be dangerous. Provenzano is among the first (of what is sure to be many) to suggest what had previously been unthinkable: perhaps it’s time to consider trading Karlsson.

Erik KarlssonJust a few weeks ago the Senators went out and added Matt Duchene, bringing in a former Olympian who was expected to kick-start their offense. The fact that he had just a year and a half left on his deal (coincidentally the same length as Karlsson) didn’t matter, as they were close enough that he could push them over the edge right away. They needed to move out Kyle Turris (and several other pieces) to do so, but he seemed unlikely to re-sign with the team after this season when he became an unrestricted free agent. The problem there is, as Craig Button screamed into the radio airwaves yesterday on TSN 1050, “they traded a better player for a lesser player.” Button believes Turris is better than Duchene right now, and the early returns would back him up.

Turris has 12 points in 13 games for the Nashville Predators since the deal, while Duchene has just two. The Senators meanwhile have gone 3-8-1 with Duchene in the lineup, including losing seven of their last eight in regulation. That has seen them tumble down in the standings, even as they play in arguably the weakest division in the NHL. As of Thursday, they find themselves ahead of only Buffalo in the Atlantic Division and tied with the Florida Panthers with 24 points. Not good enough for a team that expected to compete.

While the NHL season is far from over, and a rebound from the team is more than just possible, it may be time to start thinking about drastic changes to their core group. As noted above, Karlsson is only signed until the summer of 2019 and has made it clear that he’ll cost a boatload on the open market. Derick Brassard and Mike Hoffman are signed for one and two years respectively after this season, and are both no longer young players with years of improvement ahead of them. Mark Stone, the team’s best forward will hit restricted free agency this summer and should expect a big deal, but it’s not clear how long-term he’ll want to go with the club. Stone will turn 26 before the summer hits, and could get to unrestricted free agency himself with just a one-year deal.

It’s not over for the Senators just yet, but Provenzano’s article won’t be the first written about the possibility of a Karlsson trade. After July 1st hits, and an extension is possible, every passing day will fuel speculation on whether the team should move him before he hits the open market. As one of the most valuable players in the league, it’s not clear who would even have the guts to give up the kind of package Ottawa would need in return. But it’s an interesting possibility if the season continues to progress as it has so far for the Senators.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Erik Karlsson Unwilling To Take Hometown Discount

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Erik Karlsson’s contract doesn’t expire until the end of the 2018-19 season and he isn’t even eligible to sign an extension yet, but when you’re the best defenseman in the NHL, everyone is focused on your future and (potential) availability. So, it’s no surprise that a question of his future was posed at practice Thursday. However, the surprise, at least for many Senators fans, was his answer, as retold by the Ottawa Citizen’s Ken Warren:

“When I go to market, I’m going to get what I’m worth, and it’s going to be no less, no matter where I’m going… That’s the business part of it. That’s the way every player has been treated ever since this league has started, and I think the players have been a little bit on the other side of things when it comes to negotiations. I think it’s time to realize that when we go to the table, it’s business on both parts, not just (owners)… “I like it here, I’m comfortable here, I’ve been here my whole career… but at the end of the day, when it comes down to it, if it’s not the right fit and it’s not going to work out business-wise, then you’re going to have to look elsewhere because that’s what (owners) are going to do, as well.”

Karlsson isn’t incorrect – it is far more frequent in all pro sports to see a star athlete take a hometown discount to stay with a team than it is for a team executive to offer a premium contract to retain such an athlete. Karlsson clearly recognizes that he is one of the best in the game and is deserving of perhaps a record-setting contract, one that should at least erase P.K. Subban’s $9MM mark as the highest AAV ever handed to a defenseman. A Norris-caliber defenseman hitting the open market at the age of 28 is beyond rare and Karlsson is ready to cash in. However, the big question – and one that could plague the team for the next year plus – is whether the Ottawa Senators will be the club that ponies up for Karlsson’s massive promotion.

 

Poll: Which Defenseman Is Most Likely To Reach Free Agency In 2019?

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When Craig Custance of The Athletic told Drew Doughty about the “Superclass” of defensemen scheduled to become unrestricted free agents in 2019—a group that includes the aformentioned Kings’ defender along with Erik Karlsson, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Ryan McDonagh and Ryan Ellis among others—all he said was “I didn’t know any of that.” 

To be sure, even if Doughty didn’t know about the long list, general managers around the league will have noticed long ago. Obviously, many of these players will be re-signed long before free agency even comes close. Each of them is eligible to sign a contract extension on July 1, 2018 and likely will as soon as they’re able. Others though may take some time with their decision. When you’re talking about contracts that could push eight years and $80MM (or even higher), players often want to know exactly where the team will be when the deal starts.

So which of the those five is most likely to make it to free agency? Each have been core players with their respective teams for many years, but each have different situations surrounding them. Ekman-Larson is in the midst of another disappointing season in the desert, while Ellis has been criminally underpaid for several years. Make sure to explain why in the comments below!

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Drew Doughty Pondering His Next Contract

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If you look early enough, the 2019 unrestricted free agent class looks like it could be historical. Erik Karlsson, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Ryan Ellis, Tyler Seguin, Jeff Skinner, Joe Pavelski, Artemi Panarin, Sergei Bobrovsky, Cam Talbot and many, many more are all set to become UFAs. Obviously the majority of those names will likely be re-signed by their current clubs, and many aren’t likely even thinking about their next contract just yet. One that is however is Drew Doughty, who recently spoke with Craig Custance of The Athletic concerning his upcoming free agency.

Drew DoughtyDoughty, always unfiltered, speaks about what he thinks negotiations would start at for both him and Karlsson and explains how he’ll try to be in touch with the Ottawa defenseman throughout the process. One specific quote, on where he thinks his salary would sit is extremely telling:

Right now, I guess we’d be gauging off what P.K. [Subban] makes. I think both of us deserve quite a bit more than that.

Subban currently holds the highest cap hit for any defenseman in the league at $9MM, with Brent Burns’ extension bringing him closest at $8MM next season. The idea that Doughty and Karlsson will command “quite a bit more” than that may be a tough thing for any team (especially an internal-budget team like Ottawa) to swallow, even if it is for a franchise defenseman.

Custance lists the Toronto Maple Leafs and Detroit Red Wings (two lead markets of The Athletic) as potential suitors for Doughty if he does hit free agency, though the defenseman is quick to point out that he loves the Los Angeles organization and is by no means saying he’ll be a free agent when his current contract ends. If he or any of the other franchise players do though, another interesting market to watch for will be the NHL’s newest landscape: Vegas.

We’ve examined the Golden Knights’ salary structure in the past, but it is important to once again note something in particular. Vegas has just four one-way contracts on the books for the 2019-20 season, one of which is David Clarkson who will continue to be on long-term injured reserve. The team has basically all but $10MM of the salary cap—which could be well in excess of $80MM by then—with which to spend the next few seasons, making them a dangerous player in free agency. While other teams are hampered by re-signing their own young players or dealing with the effects of bad contracts from the past, Vegas will have free rein to do what they please in the summer of 2019.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Snapshots: Chabot, Johansson, Berglund

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Just a day after sending him down to the minors, the Ottawa Senators have called defenseman Thomas Chabot back up from AHL Belleville. The team is finding it hard to keep the promising blue liner in the AHL and for good reason.  The 2015 first-round pick has looked better and better with each game played in the NHL, now with three points and a +2 rating through five 2017-18 contests. He also handled more ice time well in his most recent stint, including extensive action on the power play. In fact, Chabot’s 2:34 average power play time on ice is second only to Erik Karlsson among Ottawa defensemen. The Sens are running out of excuses to not keep their prized prospect in the big leagues, especially when he has shown superior play in the NHL versus the AHL and appears to have already outgrown the minors. There was no specific reason given by the team for this latest recall, but one would think that Chabot could be up for a longer stint this time around.

  • Another fan base ready for an exciting addition back to their roster is the New Jersey Devils. Devils beat reporter Amanda Stein reported today that Marcus Johansson has been cleared to re-join the team and should be ready for New Jersey’s upcoming road trip. Johansson has not played since November 1st due to a concussion, but appears to back at full strength for a Devils team that has exceedingly outperformed expectations this season despite several medical absences. Johansson, of course, was New Jersey’s big off-season acquisition, coming over via trade from the Washington Capitals. However, Johansson has only seen ten games of action in 2017-18 and should be primed to add to his mere five points thus far when he takes the ice again this week.
  • Fellow Swede and injured center Patrik Berglund appears poised for a return from injury soon as well. St. Louis Blues beat writer Lou Korac reports that the long-time Blue could be back as early as Wednesday from off-season shoulder surgery that has kept him off the ice so far this season. Yet, like fellow core teammate Jay Bouwmeester, the Blues have hardly felt his absence this year. The NHL’s best team has been rolling in 2017-18 without Berglund, Robby Fabbri, Zach Sanford, and until recently Bouwmeester. Yet, logic would dictate the team would only get better upon Berglund’s return and that should scare the other 30 teams in the NHL.

Maple Leafs Notes: Andersen, Rielly, Marner, Rask

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The Toronto Maple Leafs started the season scoring tons of points, but still finding it hard to close out games as their defense and their goaltending was under constant scrutiny. Things looked even worse last week when they team wrapped up its road trip and allowed 11 goals in two games against the St. Louis Blues and Los Angeles Kings combined. However, the tide seems to be turning and suddenly the goaltending seems to have shaken their rust off, according to Eric Koreen of The Athletic (subscription required).

The scribe points out that starting goaltender Frederik Andersen has steadied the ship on their recent three-game homestand in which Andersen has allowed just seven goals in three games, a much stronger percentage that previously. With a save percentage hovering well under .900, Andersen seems to have settled down in net this week with a .930 save percentage. Even backup Curtis McElhinney got into the act, putting up a strong performance Saturday against the Boston Bruins, stopping 38 of 39 shots for the win.

Koreen admits that Toronto’s defense has improved, but the goaltenders have had to make quite a few big saves during the games, suggesting that if the goaltenders can keep it up, the team should find itself continually atop of the Eastern Conference standings.

  • Howard Berger of Between the Posts praises the offensive play of Toronto Maple Leafs’ Morgan Rielly. He notes that Rielly is the unsung hero of the team as he has quietly put up 16 points in 19 games so far this year. Only John Klingberg, Kevin Shattenkirk and Erik Karlsson have more points for a defenseman that Rielly, who is on pace to amass 74 points on the year, which would be the fourth-highest number for a Toronto Maple Leafs blueliner. Rielly’s highest points total in his career is 36 points, which he attained in the 2015-16 season.
  • James Mirtle of The Athletic writes that the Maple Leafs have high hopes that Mitch Marner can get back on track after a quality performance against the Boston Bruins on Friday night. He points out that after 55 games last year, Marner was 22nd in scoring, but then got injured and has never really seemed the same since then. In fact, he’s had just five goals in his last 39 games from that point on. He finished the season with 19 goals and 61 points, but has struggled this season. However, with Auston Matthews down, Marner stepped up and has started to show his skills on the ice. He added his second goal of the season last night, suggesting he might be ready to be a key contributor to the team going forward.
  • Lance Hornby of The Toronto Sun writes that the Maple Leafs are beginning to find some success against goaltender Tuukka Rask, best known to be one of the worst trades the team has made in a long time. Rask’s rights (he was a first-round pick in 2005) were traded back in 2006 in exchange for goaltender Andrew Raycroft, who started one year for Toronto and put up a 2.99 GAA that year before taking a backup role the next year. The team, however, has had some success against the now-veteran, 10 years later, as they have bested him in their last four meetings, dating back to last year.

Failed Trade Might Prompt Senators To Move Turris Quickly

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After Friday night’s attempt to deal Ottawa Senators’ Kyle Turris to Nashville in a three-team trade fell through, don’t be surprised if the Ottawa Senators escalate their search for a trade partner to fix this rapidly awkward situation. While no one was surprised that Turris was not available for interview after the team’s 5-4 loss to the Vegas Golden Knights Saturday, the situation has become much more tense in the past 24 hours. Not only that, but the team is

Bruce Garrioch of The Ottawa Sun writes that an extension with Turris is highly unlikely, especially now. And the fact that Turris almost got traded to Nashville suggests the team isn’t planning on trying. Supposedly, he is asking for seven years at $6MM annually, while Ottawa is offering five years at similar money. And while that doesn’t seem like the negotiations are too far off and a bridge could be found, there are definitely questions whether they ought to lock up the 29-year-old center to a long-term deal. They already have 30-year-old Bobby Ryan locked up for four more years after this one at $7.25MM and don’t forget 32-year-old defenseman Dion Phaneuf is signed for three more years at $7MM. To add another long-term deal where all of them could begin to decline at once, could place the team into a hole the franchise might not recover from. They also have to consider long-term extensions for Erik Karlsson and Mark Stone as well.

That leaves the trade option. And Garrioch writes they need to move quickly, because the team can’t afford to let him walk away at the seasons’ end for nothing and Ottawa needs to get as much value as possible for Turris, so they don’t even have the luxury of waiting until the trade deadline.

The obvious deal would be to still make a deal for Colorado’s Matt Duchene, who they were supposed to get in the three-team for Turris, but since a third team was needed to make the deal, it’s obvious that Colorado has no interest in Turris and why would they want a 29-year-old soon-to-be free agent to join their rebuild? Would the Senators move a player like Thomas Chabot and more to acquire Duchene?

The Athletic’s James Gordon (subscription required) writes that Nashville might still be a viable option. They are obviously interested in Turris since they were trying to get him yesterday. However, what will the Senators get back in return? Would they be willing to take a package of young players and hope that their young talent like Colin White and Logan Brown are ready to produce now? However, a trade for youth could also hold up the team’s success another year or two, which won’t help their core of veteran players.

While the questions remain unanswered for the time being, the team’s loss to Vegas today reiterates that the Senators are a playoff bubble-team at best, so changes might be necessary no matter what to improve the franchise’s long-term options.

Metropolitan Notes: Bailey, Hagelin, Stephenson

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The New York Islanders may have come out of last night’s performance with a loss, but it definitely didn’t feel like one. For one, the team’s offense, particularly the power play, seems to have hit its stride and the team finds itself putting up solid numbers. A lot of that credit goes to their top line of John Tavares and Anders Lee. However, it’s the third man on that line that deserves quite a bit of credit, according to Newsday’s Arthur Staple, who gives much of the line’s success to Josh Bailey.

Bailey has been the key to the team’s offensive firepower, especially on the power play and has helped fix that power play which started the NHL season at a 0-for-20. The scribe points out that while Tavares and Lee have combined for five of the team’s nine goals, all coming since their Oct. 19th game against the New York Rangers, it is Bailey’s passing work that has made the difference. The 28-year-old winger is among NHL leaders with six power play assists since then and has had nine assists in the last four games, giving him 13 assists this season. In fact, since the start of last year (the 2016-17 season), Bailey has racked up 56 assists and only 10 players in the NHL have more than him, including names like Connor McDavid, Erik Karlsson, Patrick Kane and Niklas Backstrom.

Unfortunately, for the Islanders while that’s great to see him taking that next step, its also another cause for concern as he is in the last year of a five-year, $16.5MM deal. He undoubtedly will expect a raise, likely a significant one and suddenly along with Tavares, the team will have their work cut out for them this offseason.

  • Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post Gazzette writes that Pittsburgh Penguins’ fourth-line wing Carl Hagelin is well aware that his offense needs to step up. The recently scratched wing has struggled this year offensively. While he’s never been an offensive juggernaut, the 29-year-old has struggled with just a goal and an assist in 14 games. Add that to the $4MM the team owes his this year and next year, his struggles even stand out more. Mackey writes that it’s his shooting percentage that has fallen off a cliff since last year. His 4.4 percent shooting percentage is way down from his earlier career averages of 9.4 percent.
  • Mike Vogel of NHL.com writes that the Washington Capitals’ line of Lars Eller, Tom Wilson and Chandler Stephenson is thriving in the three games that they’ve been paired together. Eller and Wilson have played together quite a while, but it has been the addition of Stephenson, who replaced the injured Brett Connolly that has made the difference in the line. The 23-year-old might finally be breaking into Washington’s lineup after only playing in 13 games combined in the last two years. So far, his one goal and two assists in four games looks solid. In the three games, the Eller-Wilson-Stephenson line has posted three goals and eight points, the most of all the Capitals lines. The success of the back-end line is welcome since the top six lines have struggled recently.

 

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