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What Is The Best Way To Build A Champion?

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At the Chicago Blackhawks convention, winger Patrick Kane was noted for saying that the Pittsburgh Penguins were the measuring stick for championship teams in the NHL. The sentiment is a fair one, after the Pens were the first team in the Cap Era to repeat and the first to go back-to-back since the ’96-97 and ’97-98 Detroit Red Wings.

Back in April, Sportsnet did a fascinating piece on how every Stanley Cup playoff participant was built and a quick glance at each team realizes that a healthy mix of good drafting, smart trades, and keen signings from the free agent pool lead to stability. Is there a metric of perfection? Hardly. The Blackhawks are saddled with huge contracts to players with a lot of miles on them. They developed well, they drafted well under Dale Tallon (Bowman has been a mixed bag), and Bowman made some shrewd trades to keep the band together. The official metric (at that time) was a mix of their roster being 40% drafted; 20% acquired through trade and another 40% picked up as free agents. Two months later, the Hawks violently shook up their roster after a stunning four-game sweep to the Nashville Predators.

So how about the Pittsburgh Penguins? The back-to-back champs clocked in at 44% drafted, 41% traded, and just 15% signed. Remember, it wasn’t too long ago that many analysts and pundits were wondering if Sidney Crosby should be dealt to rebuild, whereas ESPN’s Matthew Coller eerily wrote this:

Barring a miracle turnaround under coach Mike Sullivan, it appears the Pittsburgh Penguins’ run as an elite team is over, whether they make the playoffs this season or not. Recently fired coach Mike Johnston might be at fault for some of their struggles, but the Penguins’ big picture is clear: They have fading superstars, a broken-down prospect system and bandages covering up giant gashes in the team’s depth.

Evgeni MalkinObviously, the miracle turnaround happened and the Pens have two more Stanley Cups to show for it. This isn’t to slag Coller at all—in fact, if you can remember back to December 2015 the Penguins were playing listless hockey and appeared to truly need a reshaping. But sometimes different voices—and players—can make all the difference.

So what does it take for a franchise to win a Cup? Here are a few thoughts:

Sometimes, It Takes A Fresh Pair Of Eyes

The Penguins did just that. Ray Shero was the general manager from 2006-2014, and was fired following a bitter first round exit. Head coach Dan Bylsma followed soon after, once Jim Rutherford was hired. Rutherford’s arrival was hardly celebrated at the time, and the Penguins were bounced in five games just a year later. Rutherford then turned around and acquired Phil Kessel, booted Johnston for Sullivan in December of 2015, and snagged Trevor Daley from Chicago in a steal (Rob Scuderi, who was flipped later to Los Angeles).

Rutherford didn’t build the roster. He didn’t have a history with the franchise. Instead, he came in with a different perspective than those who were around to construct it. The one metric that advanced or conventional statistics don’t capture are the human elements that lead to winning. They’re not measurable. Statistics are important as is robust scouting. But a fresh perspective, where biases are not entrenched, go a long way. Sometimes, a front office reboot is just what the doctor ordered. Staying the course for too long can bring down a franchise. The Detroit Red Wings certainly seem to be an example of that, currently in cap hell, with contracts bloated in money, years, and no-trade clauses. Many think that Ken Holland, who’s had a dismal eight years since the Wings’ last Finals appearance, has simply been there too long to make any sizable changes. Loyalty, after all, is a powerful agent.

This isn’t to say that full-scale change is always the way to go. Patience is a virtue. But sometimes, a different look at things can go a long way.

Draft Well

This is the no-brainer. You can’t whiff on your top picks. The Penguins built a foundation when the ping pong ball bounced their way three times, allowing them to draft Marc-Andre Fleury, Evgeni Malkin, and Crosby in three straight drafts. From there, it’s finding the right complimentary pieces and then developing that talent through the minors. Of those 16 playoff participants examined in the Sportsnet piece, only one team didn’t have a roster that was composed of over 33% drafted players (Boston Bruins – 25%). That’s a third of the roster contributing to a playoff appearance—an obvious necessity to prolonged success.

Trading Is Risk/Reward Based On Who’s Pulling The Trigger

Trades certainly put the Penguins over the top but they don’t always work out. Just ask George McPhee and David Poile about that Filip Forsberg deal. But it goes without saying that teams can’t be afraid to make a deal here and there. Poile is proof positive of that. He swung the trade that netted P.K. Subban, and has swindled other teams to acquire both core and supplemental talent. Trading can’t be relied upon solely to build a winner, but adding the right pieces at opportune times can be the difference between a deep playoff run and just missing the playoffs.

Free agency, especially in the salary cap era, has become akin to navigating a field full of land mines. Long terms and big dollars are spent on players and only seasons later, buyouts used to purge the mistake. There are certainly cases of it working well, but it seems like it’s best to tread lightly during the free agent signing period.

There will never be a perfect science to building a team. Sometimes it’s just a little luck that propels a team on the bubble to a Stanley Cup Final appearance or even just qualifying for the playoffs. Regardless, it’s interesting to note that as the Penguins head into a season trying to capture a third consecutive Cup, smart drafting, trading and a fresh perspective can go a long way in winning.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

New Jersey Devils Sign Five Restricted Free Agents

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The New Jersey Devils have signed another pair of restricted free agents, inking Stefan Noesen, Blake Coleman, Blake Pietila, Kevin Rooney and Ben Thomson. The details are as follows:

The Devils came into the offseason with a huge group of RFAs, one that has been whittled down in the past few days after the team signed a trio yesterday to go with these five. They now have just Damon Severson left to sign, who came into the summer as perhaps the most important player on the team to get under contract.

Noesen is undoubtedly the most interesting name in this group, after spending the latter half of the season with the Devils this year. Claimed off waivers from the Ducks in January, Noesen is a first-round pick who has had trouble developing much offensive performance since joining the professional ranks. Still, he’s only 24 and fit in admirably in the Devils’ bottom-six where he recorded eight points in 32 games. Though he isn’t what you would call dynamic with the puck, he did generate quite a number of shot chances in his New Jersey stint, and could legitimately find a home in the NHL next season.

The other four all seem like minor league depth at this point in their careers, though each played at least a few games in the NHL last season. Coleman led the bunch with 23, and though he does have some offensive upside seems destined to be a 13th forward at best going forward. That’s not to say they can’t play big roles in the organization, as they’ll help the new Binghamton Devils AHL team try to duplicate the recent success of the last affiliate in Albany. That team has made it to the AHL playoffs in three of the past four years, and should be formidable again this season.

Minor Transactions: 7/25/17

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For a Tuesday in late July, it’s been an especially busy day for hockey transactions, including the NHL signings of Mika Zibanejad with the New York Rangers, Robin Lehner with the Buffalo Sabres, Mark Streit with the Montreal Canadiens, and several deals by the Colorado Avalanche and New Jersey Devils. Yet, there has been a flurry of notable activity in the AHL and overseas today too, including the following:

  • The once-promising NHL career of Matt Fraser has taken another odd turn away from its original path. Fraser, still just 27 years old, has signed with Dornbirner EC of the EBEL, a lower tier European league based mostly out of Austria. The team has announced the deal, though terms have not been released. Fraser moves to the EBEL after a season in Sweden, where injuries limited him to only four games with Rogle BK. Before that, many will remember Fraser as a star in the AHL for the Texas Stars and, after the Tyler Seguin trade, the Providence Bruins. Fraser even played in 60 NHL games with the Boston Bruins and Edmonton Oilers in 2014-15 and looked to be on his way to becoming an NHL regular. However, after signing a one-year deal with the Winnipeg Jets in 2015 and failing to make the team, Fraser had the worst AHL season of his career and decided to head overseas. So far, it has not worked out, but Fraser will now try his hand at EBEL action, where he could easily be the best player for Dornbirner, who currently count another former Bruin, Jamie Arniel, as their top scorer.
  • Another player who failed to meet expectatiosn in North America and will now head to a lesser European league is Dane Fox. The former Erie Otters superstar, who scored 107 points in 67 games in his final OHL season, has not found anywhere near the same success at the pro level. A high-profile signing by the Vancouver Canucks in 2014, the undrafted forward has made his last junior season look very much like a fluke with his play since then. Fox has skated almost exclusively in the ECHL over the past three seasons, playing in only two AHL games and not even in consideration for an NHL look with the Canucks and Carolina Hurricanes. Now, Fox will head to Germany to play with the Nurnberg Ice Tigers of the DEL. Nurnberg is the likely favorite in the DEL next season and roster many players with NHL experience, including 2016-17 top scorer Steve Reinprecht and recent signee Tom Gilbert. Fox’s pro hockey career is very much up in the air right now, but if he can shine through on an experience Ice Tigers roster, perhaps he’ll get another shot in North America .
  • The AHL’s San Diego Gulls, the Anaheim Ducks’ affiliate, has re-signed forward Jordan Samuels-Thomas to a two-year minor league deal, the league announced. The 27-year-old recorded a pro career-high 24 points and +13 rating for the Gulls last year and is a fan favorite and active member of the San Diego community. The former NCAA standout was a seventh-round pick of the Atlanta Thrashers in 2009, but was never signed to an entry-level deal after spending five years in college.
  • The Chicago Wolves, now the new affiliate of the Vegas Golden Knights, have signed one of their own, inking Scooter Vaughan to a one-year deal, according to a team release. The hard-nosed defenseman worked his way up through hockey’s ranks, spending four years at the University of Michigan, three years in the ECHL, and going on four years in the AHL, with the last two spent in Chicago. The next stop could be the NHL, now that the Wolves are associated with the Knights, who obviously have the least organizational depth of any team in the league. A career-best performance in 2017-18 could earn Vaughan his first NHL contract next year.
  • A pair of AHL defenseman will change teams for the upcoming season as Paul Geiger, recently of the Rochester Americans, has signed with the Hershey Bears, the Washington Capitals’ affiliate, while the Carolina Hurricanes’ minor league partners, the Charlotte Checkers, have signed former St. John’s Ice Caps defender Josiah Didier. Both Geiger and Didier are still just 24 years old and were solid college players, at Clarkson and Denver respectively, but need big seasons with their new teams after pedestrian starts to their pro careers, that is if they want to reach the NHL someday.
  • The 2016-17 captain at Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI) has found his new home, and he’s in a good spot. Riley Bourbonnais, a 23-year-old center who was nearly a point per game player for RPI last year, has inked his first AHL deal with the Wilkes-Barre Scranton Penguins, the feeder team of the two-time Stanley Cup champs. The team announced their newest addition and have high hopes that he can bring the same well-rounded game he showed in college to the pros.

New Jersey Devils Sign Three Restricted Free Agents

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The New Jersey Devils did some house cleaning today, signing Scott Wedgewood, Joseph Blandisi and Mirco Mueller. Mueller will be on a two-year one-way deal that pays $850K per season, Blandisi will earn $680K per season on a two-year two-way deal, and Wedgewood will get the minimum $650K on a one-year two-way contract.

Mueller, the only one of the group who will play next season on a one-way deal was acquired by the Devils last month for a second-round pick from the San Jose Sharks, where he’d not been able to crack the lineup with any sort of consistency. A running gag last season was the incredible amount of times Mueller was moved between the Sharks and the San Jose Barracuda in the AHL, usually not playing a game during his NHL stints. In New Jersey, he’ll be afforded a much bigger role and given the chance to grow into the potential that made him a first-round pick a few years ago.

Blandisi has been a sort of 13th forward for the Devils the past two seasons, getting into 68 contests and registering 26 points. The Devils have hoped to coax out some of his offensive talent without giving him too big a role, considering that he scored 52 goals and 112 points as an over-aged player in his final year of junior hockey. There’s clearly talent there, but he’ll likely have to adjust his play style to be able to fit into a bottom-six on a full-time basis.

Wedgewood lost nearly the entire 2016-17 season when he underwent shoulder surgery in November, in what should have been a key development year. After putting up an outstanding 2015-16 campaign that resulted in his NHL debut, he was considered a possible successor to Cory Schneider down the line and at least had a future as an NHL backup. While this wasn’t the end of his career by any means, he’ll have to get back on the ice and prove that he’s still the same goaltender who put up a .933 save percentage in the AHL.

Dead Space: Bought-Out, Buried, And Retained Salaries For Every Team

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It’s something that often goes unnoticed, but with the cap showing minimal growth the last few years, teams are starting to feel the crunch more than ever. Buyouts have become more common, especially with players with under three remaining years on their contracts. And it’s not just the big name busts that have seen the ax lately – we’ve seen lesser names at lesser money take the fall for their respective teams, then needing to scramble for work elsewhere in the league. Additionally, salary retention in trades has become a more utilized tactic as of late. Teams with “unmovable” contracts have offered to retain part of a poor contract in order to entice a team into giving them some relief.

All this said, some teams have been better with foresight than others. Some teams have shown a track record of being entirely unable of handing out poor contracts over the past five or so seasons. Considering many teams showed some progress in being more frugal this off-season, it seems a wise time to review the dead space every team has accumulated, either due to poor management decisions or poor luck.

Colorado Avalanche – $4.83 MM in 2017-18, issues resolved after current year – Francois Beauchemin buyout; Cody McLeod retained

Arizona Coyotes – $4.61 MM in 2017-18, issues resolved after 2020-21 – Mike Smith retained; Mike Ribeiro, Antoine Vermette buyouts

Columbus Blue Jackets – $4.025 MM in 2017-18, issues resolved after 2020-21 – Fedor Tyutin, Jared Boll, Scott Hartnell buyouts

Carolina Hurricanes – $3.71 MM in 2017-18, issues resolved after 2020-21 – Eddie Lack retained; Alexander Semin, James Wisniewski buyouts

Toronto Maple Leafs – $3.28 MM in 2017-18, issues resolved after 2021-22 – Tim Gleason, Jared Cowen buyouts; Phil Kessel retained

Nashville Predators – $2.83 MM in 2017-18, issues resolved after 2018-19 – Viktor Stalberg, Eric Nystrom, Barret Jackman buyouts

Boston Bruins – $2.73 MM in 2017-18, issues resolved 2019-20 – Dennis Seidenberg, Jimmy Hayes buyouts

New York Rangers – $2.61 MM in 2017-18, issues resolved after 2022-23 – Dan Girardi buyout

Minnesota Wild – $2.5 MM in 2017-17, issues resolved after current year – Thomas Vanek buyout

Los Angeles Kings – $2.4 MM in 2017-18, issues resolved after 2023-24 – Matt Greene buyout; Mike Richards termination/recapture

Edmonton Oilers – $2.33 MM in 2017-18, issues resolved after 2020-21 – Lauri Korpikoski, Benoit Pouliot buyouts

Anaheim Ducks – $2.21 MM in 2017-18, issues resolved after 2023-24 – Mark Fistric, Simon Despres buyouts; Patrick Maroon retained

Vancouver Canucks – $2.13 MM in 2017-18, issues resolved after 2021-22 – Roberto Luongo, Jannik Hansen retained; Chris Higgins buyout

New Jersey Devils – $2.09 MM in 2017-18, issues resolved after 2023-24 – Mike Cammalleri, Devante Smith-Pelly buyouts; Ilya Kovalchuk recapture

Tampa Bay Lightning – $1.83 MM in 2017-18, issues resolved after 2019-20 – Matt Carle buyout

Calgary Flames – $1.82 MM in 2017-18, issues resolved after 2018-19 – Mason Raymond, Lance Bouma, Ryan Murphy buyouts

Detroit Red Wings – $1.67 MM in 2017-18, issues resolved after 2020-21 – Stephen Weiss buyout

Dallas Stars – $1.5 MM in 2017-18, issues resolved after 2018-19- Antti Niemi buyout

Philadelphia Flyers – $1.5 MM in 2017-18, issues resolved after current year – R.J. Umberger buyout

Winnipeg Jets – $1.46 MM in 2017-18, issues resolved after 2018-19 – Mark Stuart buyout

Florida Panthers – $1.33 MM in 2017-18, issues resolved after 2018-19 – Jussi Jokinen buyout

Las Vegas Golden Knights – $1.1 MM in 2017-18, issues resolved after current year – Alexei Emelin retained

Ottawa Senators – $350,000 in 2017-18, issues resolved after current year – Andrew Hammond buried

Buffalo Sabres – Minimal in 2017-18, increased issues ($791,00) resolved after 2022-23 – Cody Hodgson buyout

 

 

Chicago Blackhawks, St. Louis Blues, Washington Capitals, Pittsburgh Penguins, New York Islanders, San Jose Sharks,  Montreal Canadiens – No dead cap space

After compiling the list, it became clear that utilizing these options isn’t a complete hindrance to competing in the NHL. In fact, most clubs have between $1 MM and $3 MM in dead space. That said, of the teams that have not needed to utilize the buyout or retention options, there has been a great deal of success. And among the five worst offenders, the Leafs, Hurricanes, Blue Jackets, Avalanche, and Coyotes, none has moved past the first-round in multiple years. It’s hard to draw massive conclusions without taking the context of each individual situation into account, but there is something to be said for making every dollar of cap space count. Perhaps this is merely a byproduct of past success rather than an indicator of future success, but considering how amenable many managers have become to the option, it bears consideration.

(All totals courtesy of the fantastic CapFriendly.com)

Severson Could Receive Bridge Deal

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  • Defenseman Damon Severson is the most prominent of the nine remaining restricted free agents that the Devils have. Andrew Gross of Fire and Ice looks at some comparable players on both long-and-short-term contracts and projects that New Jersey will ultimately opt for a bridge deal.  From a financial standpoint, the team has the flexibility to go long-term if they so desire as they sit more than $19MM under the salary cap as things stand per CapFriendly.

Free Agent Profile: Johnny Oduya

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Johnny Oduya is a name that has fallen off most hockey fanatics’ radar this off-season, and perhaps there is good reason for that. Oduya is 35 years old and came off a brutal playoff performance in their sweep against Nashville. The league is certainly trending in the “what have you done for me lately” direction, so no one should be entirely shocked that he remains unclaimed this deep into July.

That said, it’s still conceivable that he has a bounce back year. For a bargain bin price, he’s worth taking a shot on. Although his dreadful 2016-17 outing had him finish with only 9 points and an uninspiring 46.8% Corsi For, he’d been above the 50% mark the prior 5 seasons. He can lo longer handle a ton of minutes, and he will need sheltering from top competition, as many bottom-pairing defensemen do. He only averaged 18:16 of ice-time through the year, but considering that 59.3% of his zone starts were in the defensive end, he managed to hold his own. As a veteran 6th or 7th defenseman, he may still have something to offer.

Potential Suitors

The Blackhawks are seemingly always looking to re-unite with names from their past glories, but the fit may not be one Stan Bowman is willing to try again. He looked sluggish and out of sorts, and got blown by on numerous occasion by the depth players of Nashville. That said, the team will likely need at least another defenseman on the roster, so it’s not impossible. But with Duncan Keith (34), Brent Seabrook (32), and Michal Rozsival (38) already making up half the defense, do they really want to get older still?

Oduya hasn’t been definitively linked to practically anyone. It’s quite possible he’s holding on to see what opens up as teams enter training camp. Teams like the Washington Capitals, Philadelphia Flyers, and Los Angeles Kings could use another 6/7, and would be on the hunt for a bargain. The New Jersey Devils of course completely lacking on the back-end, and might want a mentor for 22 year olds Mirco Mueller, Damon Severson, and Michael Kapla. In truth, a good 50% of the league that could afford to take a chance on him for a single season, but the question remains, who will?

Ultimately, we aren’t likely to hear much chatter on this front until the arbitration period has passed. Teams want to have their organizational contracts set in stone before offering a contract to what will ultimately amount to a stop-gap defender solution.

Projected Contract

Last month, we projected a one-year, $2.5MM deal for Oduya back with Chicago, but they certainly no longer have him in their plans. We had him ranked at a respectable 32nd in a weak UFA class, but even that may have been overestimating his remaining value around the league. Oduya will likely have to settle for a one-year deal to prove he still “has it”, and the monetary value of that contract will be far less. He could always decide to play in Europe, but at the bare minimum he’ll attract at PTO, much like Cody Franson. If he does sign before the end of summer, it will likely be for under $1 MM, quite the paycut from his 2016-17 AAV of $3.75 MM.

New Jersey Devils Must Focus On Defense

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The New Jersey Devils team struggled on all aspects last season, so general manager Ray Shero concentrated the offseason on upgrading its offense and they did that successfully. They selected Nico Hischier with the first-overall pick in this year’s draft and expect him immediately contribute as a center. They traded with the capped-out Washington Capitals to acquire 26-year-old winger Marcus Johansson for a couple of draft picks. They even signed veteran Brian Boyle to add a little scoring punch on the back lines. And with some of their young players slowly emerging, the Devils offense looks to be heading in the right direction.

Not so much on defense. Their defense, which struggled on giving up shots last year, hasn’t changed at all. The team still has Andy Greene, Ben Lovejoy, Damon Severson and John Moore as their top-four defenders — the same guys who tied for sixth in most goals allowed (2.94) and finished 10th in shots allowed (31.4). With no changes on defense, don’t be shocked if those numbers don’t improve too much. To make matters worse, there is expected to be little improvement among these regulars as most of them are getting old. Greene is turning 34 and starting to slow down. Lovejoy, 33, struggled last year and was demoted off the top line. Moore had a career-high 12 goals, but struggles on defense. Only the 22-year-old Severson has future promise.

However, what options remain? According to CBS New York’s Steve Lichtenstein, Shero is “keenly aware” that the team needs to upgrade their blueline. With all their promising youth and development on offense, the team seems to have few defensive prospects at all.

Despite the team’s $19.4MM in available cap space, via CapFriendly, there isn’t much available on the free agent market. The team failed to bring over Kevin Shattenkirk at the onset of free agency. Their attempt failed as he instead inked a long-term deal with the rival Rangers. The best possibility remaining at this point would be Cody Franson, but according to Lichtenstein, he is not on Shero’s radar. Perhaps a trade can fix their defense. Vegas has too many defenders and one might be able to be had for cheap. One of them is former Devil Jonathon Merrill, who they lost to Vegas in the expansion draft, but how much of an improvement would he be if he was part of the problem in New Jersey last year. Hopefully, New Jersey has a plan.

Ilya Kovalchuk Still Has “Dreams Left” To Accomplish In NHL

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If you’re sick and tired of hearing about Ilya Kovalchuk this summer, know that it isn’t over just yet. After a long back and forth that ended in the Russian sniper signing back with SKA St. Petersburg of the KHL for another season, he’s not finished with his desire to return to the NHL. According to Igor Eronko of Sport-Express, Kovalchuk today said that this would be his last year in the KHL, and that “there are some dreams left” in North America. Ilya Kovalchuk

Kovalchuk of course left for the KHL in the middle of a 15-year contract from the New Jersey Devils, spurning many fans along the way. His return this year would have been predicated on the Devils completing a sign-and-trade, something that he won’t have to worry about next year. His rights are relinquished by the team when he turns 35, and he’ll be granted unrestricted free agency on July 1st.

It’s unclear how many teams would have interest in the then 35-year old, as there are some restrictions on contracts signed at that age. It would however allow him to sign a one-year incentive laden contract, built with a low salary and performance bonuses for games played, points scored and other things. That’s if he doesn’t get multi-year options, as many believed he was after this year.

Coming off a 78 point season in the KHL last year, it’s clear that Kovalchuk can still play at a high level, but whether that game translates back to the NHL is unclear. Remember this is a player who twice scored 52 goals in a season, and was one of the most dynamic mixes of speed and power in the entire league.

This seems like the end of the Kovalchuk rumors for now, but as the 2017-18 season comes to a close expect it to ramp back up. For now, Russia will look forward to having him on their Olympic roster and SKA will try to win another Gagarin Cup.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

John Quenneville Expected To Shift To Wing; Update On Damon Severson's Contract Talks

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  • Although he was drafted as a center, the Devils feel John Quenneville is best suited as a winger moving forward, AHL bench boss Rick Kowalsky told NJ Advance Media’s Chris Ryan. Kowalsky added that the 21-year-old is comfortable on both wings which could help get him to the NHL quicker.  New Jersey has a lot of talent down the middle and added number one pick Nico Hischier as well as bottom six center Brian Boyle to the mix this offseason so a position change for their top pick in 2014 was already looking like a likely outcome.
  • Still with the Devils, GM Ray Shero noted to The Record’s Andrew Gross that there’s no rush to lock up RFA blueliner Damon Severson. The 22-year-old is coming off his entry-level contract and didn’t have arbitration rights this offseason.  Shero added that there are several different options when it comes to Severson which suggests they will be exploring short-term and long-term offers in the weeks ahead.

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