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Marc-Andre Fleury

Snapshots: Three Stars, RFAs, Marleau

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The NHL has released their latest Three Stars of the Week, and to absolutely no one’s surprise Patrik Laine finds himself on top. Despite plenty of other outstanding performances last week, Laine was the easy choice after scoring 11 goals in just four games including a five-goal effort on Saturday night. The young Winnipeg Jets forward set all kinds of franchise records with the outstanding performance, and joined an incredibly small group of players to post five goals in a game before their 21st birthday. Only Laine, Don Murdoch and Wayne Gretzky have ever done so; Laine will have to do it again this season to tie Gretzky with two such performances.

Coming in second and third this week are Marc-Andre Fleury and Nikita Kucherov, two players well versed in this award. Fleury earned third star honors just over a month ago, while Kucherov has been in the top three several times throughout his career. The Vegas Golden Knights goaltender and Tampa Bay Lightning forward will have to continue their strong play if they hope to compete for the Stanley Cup again this season, and may even find themselves on this list again down the road.

Central Notes: Landeskog, Rinne, Schmaltz

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Colorado Avalanche forward Gabriel Landeskog has made quite a name for himself as he currently is tied for the NHL lead in goals scored with 11. That’s quite a feat for a player, who has averaged 20 goals a season for the past seven seasons, a number he could surpass before Thanksgiving. Regardless, Landeskog says most of his success comes from a combination of playing with the top line of Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen, as well as his growing skills and confidence on the ice, according to Sean Keeler of the Denver Post.

“It’s just a combination of luck and hard work and confidence, and being in the right place at the right time,” Landeskog said. “I think, right now, I don’t think there’s a reason maybe other than our line’s played really well and has been able to create some scoring chances. Together with those two guys, yeah, I’ve been able to put some in the back of the net.”

While Landeskog’s game could easily drop back to earth at any time, many feel that the 25-year-old, a former second-overall pick back in 2011, may just have finally found his game.

“I think he’s worked on (his shooting), he’s worked on his touch around the net,” Avs coach Jared Bednar said. “He’s getting into those areas more, and he’s coming up with rebounds and loose pucks. And part of that is his teammates being able to move the puck into those areas on a more consistent basis.”

  • The Athletic’s Adam Vingan reports that one potential problem that could come with Pekka Rinne’s new two-year extension that he signed earlier today would be that there could be some expansion ramifications for the Nashville Predators. The scribe notes that since Rinne will have the same no-movement clause in his next contract, the Predators could be forced to protect Rinne and have to expose Juuse Saros to the Seattle expansion franchise in a couple of years. However, Rinne could opt to waive the no-movement clause as well and allow himself to be taken by Seattle like Marc-Andre Fleury did in Pittsburgh. Regardless, it’s too early to speculate, especially since the Seattle team hasn’t been formally approved.
  • After being scratched Thursday night, Chicago Blackhawks center Nick Schmaltz feels that he has learned his lesson after picking up just one assist in the last five games, according to the Chicago Sun-Times’ Mark Lazerus. “I don’t think I was playing as good as I can — especially in Vancouver, I didn’t think I had a very good game,” said Schmaltz. “Take it as a learning lesson and move on from it and make sure that I’m playing to stick in the lineup every night.”

Snapshots: Three Stars, Bortuzzo, Backes

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The NHL has released the Three Stars for the third week of the season, and Colorado Avalanche captain Gabriel Landeskog has found himself in the top spot. Landeskog makes up part of one of the most dangerous trios in the league alongside Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen, and finished last week with six goals and seven points in just three games. Landeskog is still just 25 years old despite this being his eighth season in the league and still has the potential to breakout and become a point-per-game player. That’s what he is so far with ten through his first eight games, and is an early bet to break his career high of 65 points this season.

Connor McDavid and Marc-Andre Fleury round out the stars of the week, taking home second and third respectively. Fleury especially bounced back from some early season struggles and is once again playing at a high level for the Vegas Golden Knights. The 33-year old goaltender is now tenth all-time in wins, and should pass Tony Esposito by season’s end to climb another spot.

  • Robert Bortuzzo won’t be suiting up for the St. Louis Blues in Winnipeg tonight, as he’s flown back to St. Louis to be evaluated for a lower-body injury. The defenseman played on Saturday night, but is now apparently dealing with something serious enough to leave the team. The 29-year old has one goal through five games for the Blues, and is coming off the best season of his career in 2017-18 when he suited up for 72 contests. The team will have to go without his physicality and penalty killing for the time being, and will re-insert Jay Bouwmeester into the lineup for tonight’s game.
  • It’s similar news for David Backes, who has left the Boston Bruins to return home and “have some tests done.” Backes didn’t play in Vancouver on Saturday night, and was limited to just over six minutes of ice time against the Edmonton Oilers after taking an early hit and being checked for a concussion. The 34-year old forward hasn’t scored yet this season, and could be on his way out of the Boston lineup on a long-term basis if he both can’t stay healthy and can’t produce. Unfortunately for the Bruins, he’s still has two more years after this season at a $6MM cap hit, and currently has a no-movement clause.

Metropolitan Notes: Murray, Couturier, Lundqvist, Merzlikins

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The Pittsburgh Penguins have a lot invested in their goaltender of the present and future in Matt Murray. You would think replacing Marc-Andre Fleury might be a challenging procedure, but Murray’s .923 save percentage in 49 games proved that the youngster was ready for the full-time role, one of the reasons why it wasn’t as hard to let Fleury go. However, last year’s struggles already has several fans worried about Murray’s long-term success.

Murray struggled with both injuries as well as the death of his father during the 2017-18 season in which he still played in 49 games, but didn’t fare as well, posting a .907 save percentage as well as a 2.92 GAA. However, Murray as well as the team’s other backups, Casey DeSmith and Tristan Jarry, have worked hard with goaltending coach Mike Buckley, who challenged each one of them, according to Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.

Buckley feels that Murray has put too much pressure on himself to replace Fleury and needs to accept that he’s the “guy” now.

“The next step for him is to take it all in and enjoy it. ‘Hey, I’m the guy now. I can accept that. I don’t have to be Marc-Andre Fleury, but I can be tighter with my teammates and really open up to them.’” Buckley said.

Buckley added that Murray has worked hard on his conditioning and hopefully should be able to avoid injury, although some injuries like concussions are just unavoidable.

“In terms of how he takes care of his body, he’s meticulous,” Buckley said. “The problem is the things that you can’t control. A concussion, for example. Someone coming down and landing on you the wrong way. There’s really very little you can do about that.”

  • Sam Carchidi of philly.com writes that Philadelphia Flyers general manager Ron Hextall says that No. 1 center Sean Couturier will be “absolutely” 100 percent at the start of the season in October and is already ready to resume skating. Couturier, who was expected to miss four weeks on Aug. 22 with a lower-body injury, is coming off a career-best season in which he scored 31 goals and 76 points and was a key part to the Flyers’ late-season success on a line with Claude Giroux and Travis Konecny.
  • Shayna Goldman of The Athletic (subscription required) writes that this will be a challenging season for New York Rangers goaltender Henrik Lundqvist, who is coming off two poor seasons and now finds himself in the middle of a rebuilding project. Lundqvist has endured a very physical workload over the course of his career and didn’t get significant rest last season from then-head coach Alain Vigneault. One thing is imperative. The 36-year-old needs rest, which will be a key for new head coach David Quinn. The problem is that the team lacks an adequate backup as the no longer have either Cam Talbot or Antti Raanta serving behind him. The team now has a number of prospects, including Alexandar Georgiev, Dustin Tokarski and Marek Mazanec. However, unless one of them can step up, none seem likely to provide Lundqvist the kind of rest that he needs.
  • With the possibility that the team could lose star goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky to another team when he hits free agency next season, the Columbus Blue Jackets are placing more emphasis on the future suddenly, according to Aaron Portzline of The Athletic (subscription required). While the team has their immediate goaltender of the future in their backup Joonas Korpisalo, the team is focusing their long-term hopes on Elvis Merzlikins, their third-round pick in 2014, who has been a dominant prospect for Lugano of the Swiss League. The 24-year-old has been one of the top goaltenders in the league, posting a .924 save percentage last year and is ready to come to North America next season.

Snapshots: Gibson, Kesler, Subban, Cross

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While the Anaheim Ducks didn’t have to discuss a long-term extension with goaltender John Gibson this summer, the team wanted to get their 25-year-old netminder signed as quickly as possible, according to The Athletic’s Eric Stephens (subscription required). They did that Saturday when they signed him to an eight-year, $51.2MM signing with an AAV of $6.4MM.

One of the key reasons general manager Bob Murray and the Ducks negotiated the deal now was the team wanted to avoid the possibility that Gibson would have an even greater year than what he had, which would have driven up the price even more. The team now expects Gibson to raise his game anyway as he must improve his playoffs stats and attempt to remain healthy, which has occasionally been a problem, because eight years is a long ways down the road.

  • In an interview with Anaheim Ducks coach Randy Carlyle, The Athletic’s Lisa Dillman (subscription required) asked several questions about Ryan Kesler, who missed the first three months of last season after undergoing hip surgery in the offseason, and really struggled after returning. With rumors of Kesler potentially missing more time or sitting out an entire season this year, Carlyle said everything will come down to training camp. “His body will have three months of rest and rehabilitation,” said Carlyle. “Now here we go, training camp is going to be another test. What he went through last year wasn’t what he envisioned or we envisioned. He’s a guy who is very determined. I don’t think it’s about excuses. It’s about finding the right fit. It’s hard to point a finger in any one direction when you’ve got people that are not 100 percent. We’ll support the players and try to find the right combination. But we went through this once. I’m sure we’re not going to take the same route as we did the last time. There’s going to have to be a different approach taken.”
  • Las Vegas Review-Journal’s Ed Graney wonders whether the Vegas Golden Knights should be worried about their backup goaltending situation. The team had issues with 33-year-old starter Marc-Andre Fleury in the past as he missed two months earlier in the season due to a possible concussion. The team has 24-year-old Malcolm Subban as the backup, but he also dealt with numerous injuries throughout the season and then the playoffs. While Subban finished the season with 13 victories in 22 appearances, his numbers weren’t that good as he posted a 2.68 GAA and a .910 save percentage. Is he the goaltender of the future? Most don’t think so.
  • The Athletic’s Fluto Shinzawa (subscription required) featured veteran minor league defenseman Tommy Cross, who didn’t want to leave the Boston Bruins. However, with a goal to become an NHL-level defenseman and time running out, the 28-year-old blueliner opted to sign with the Columbus Blue Jackets. Cross has played 279 games with the Providence Bruins in the AHL after signing out of Boston College, but has managed to appear in just six NHL games so far and been passed over by so many prospects that the three-year AHL captain felt it was time to move on.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Vegas Golden Knights

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Navigating the Salary Cap is probably one of the more important tasks for any general manager to have. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2018-19 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Vegas Golden Knights

Current Cap Hit: $70,812,500 (under the $79.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Alex Tuch (One year remaining, $925K)
D Zach Whitecloud (Two years remaining, $925K)

Among the many things that went right for Vegas was the play of Tuch, who was a surprise in training camp and quickly earned himself a full-time role. The 6-foot-4, 222-pound winger had an impressive rookie season with the Golden Knights, scoring 15 goals and 37 points with much of his playing time coming with the team’s third line. He only improved over time, showing an ability to get into the corners and extend offensive opportunities for the team. He tallied six goals in the playoffs as well, which allowed the Golden Knights to let go veterans James Neal and David Perron, knowing that the 22-year-old Tuch is ready to take his game to the next level. With one year remaining on his entry-level deal, expect him to become a key restricted free agent for the team next season.

Potential Bonuses

Tuch: $93K
Whitecloud: $93K

Total: $186K

One Year Remaining, Non Entry-Level

F William Karlsson ($5.25MM, RFA)
D Nate Schmidt ($2.23MM, UFA)
F Oscar Lindberg ($1.7MM, UFA)
D Deryk Engelland ($1.5MM, UFA)
F Pierre-Edouard Bellemare ($1.45MM, UFA)
F Tomas Nosek ($963K, RFA)
F Ryan Carpenter ($650K, UFA)
D Brad Hunt ($650K, UFA)
G Malcolm Subban ($650K, RFA)

The most important piece the Vegas Golden Knights need to lock up is Karlsson, who just signed a one-year deal with Vegas Saturday. However, now the team has just one year to lock up Karlsson, the team’s top scorer, to a long-term extension. Less than a year, actually, as the team can’t agree to an extension until Jan. 1, 2019. That gives Vegas time to see how 25-year-old will respond in his second year. After piling up 43 goals last season (and seven more in the playoffs), the team wants to see that he can put up similar numbers before handing him a major deal considering the most he’s ever scored in his NHL career was nine goals.

The team will also have to lock up the speedy Schmidt, as well to a long-term deal at some point. The 27-year-old was a key figure on the Golden Knights defense, posting career highs of five goals and 36 points, but also showed his mettle in the playoffs, putting up another three goals and seven points. He could easily get a similar deal to the one that Miller signed with the team (four years, $15.5MM) earlier in the offseason. With an influx of prospects likely to hitting the team for the 2019-20 season, several veterans will have to prove they deserve new contracts this coming  year, including Lindberg, Bellemare, Engelland, Carpenter, Hunt and Subban, although unless someone has a breakout year, none should cost the team too much.

Two Years Remaining

F David Clarkson ($5.25MM, UFA)
F Cody Eakin ($3.85MM, UFA)
F Ryan Reaves ($2.78MM, UFA)
F Erik Haula ($2.75MM, UFA)
D Nick Holden ($2.2MM, UFA)
D Jonathon Merrill ($1.38MM, UFA)
F William Carrier ($725K, RFA)

The team likely will have to pay up if they want to keep Haula. The team’s second-line center may move to the third line now that the team locked up Stastny to a free agent deal. However, if Huala can continue to produce like he did last season, the 27-year-old should be able to fetch a nice contract. He had a career-high in goals last season as he scored 29 and 55 points.

The team should also recoup some of their losses as well in two years as Clarkson’s deal will expire, so that will free up $5.25MM for the team as the team currently has to wait till the start of the season before they can place his contract on LTIR. Others like Eakin and Reaves will likely have to earn another deal over the next two seasons. Both had solid showings for Vegas this year, but will have to prove their consistency. While Reaves deal looks overpaid on paper, the team opted to give him three years worth of money as long as he only signed for two years.

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The Contract Each Team Would Most Like To Trade: Part III

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Nearly every team has one of those players: a top talent they were excited to sign and never thought could do anything but help them. In hindsight, history shows that more often than not, expensive, long-term free agent contracts don’t work out. It may look good at first (or it may look bad right away to the outside observer), but players struggle to make their value last throughout a lengthy contract. Those contracts come back to bite teams and are hard to get rid of. As teams begin to finalize their rosters at this point in the off-season, many are struggling to make everyone fit under the salary cap and are regretting these past signings that exasperate a cap crunch that can be tough for even a mistake-free club. We already took a look at the first third and second third of the league; here are the contracts that each of the final ten teams would most like to trade, from Philadelphia to Winnipeg:

Philadelphia Flyers: Andrew MacDonald – two years, $10MM remaining

Based purely on salary versus what he brings to the table, Jori Lehtera’s $4.7MM contract is the worst on the Flyers. However, Philadelphia is far from cap trouble this season, currently among the five lightest payrolls in the league, and Lehtera’s deal expires after this season. However, next year the Flyers will need to re-sign or replace Wayne Simmonds, hand new deals to Ivan Provorov and Travis Konecny, and likely find a new starting goalie. The cap crunch will be much more real and the over-inflated $5MM contract of Andrew MacDonald will hurt. MacDonald’s six-year, $30MM contract was immediately panned by the public and it wasn’t long after that he was buried in the minors for cap relief and to keep him out of the lineup. MacDonald simply is not the player he was with the New York Islanders earlier in his career when he could eat major minutes, was stellar in man-to-man defense, and could block shots with the best. What he is being paid now is far beyond what he is actually worth. Some would say that Radko Gudas is worse, but that is an argument that suffers from recency bias. Combining the past two seasons, Gudas actually has the same amount of points as MacDonald in fewer games and less ice time, a better plus/minus rating, far more shots, and of course infinitely more hits. At $3.35MM for the next two years, Gudas is a far better deal.

Pittsburgh Penguins: Carl Hagelin – one year, $4MM remaining

The real answer is that GM Jim Rutherford would not like to trade any more players. He already ditched two of his worst contracts by sending Matt Hunwick and Conor Sheary to the Buffalo Sabres and he isn’t eager to make another salary dump. However, the reality is that Rutherford is going to find it hard to manipulate his roster this season with just over $1MM in cap space. As such, it is likely that another Penguin could be on the move. An outside observer could easily point to the Jack Johnson contract as one that stands little chance of maintaining its value over the term and the same argument could be made for Patric Hornqvist as well. However, Rutherford just signed those deals and wouldn’t move them even if he could. That leaves a short list of players who could be moved and the only one that sticks out as being overpriced is Carl Hagelin. Hagelin has played an important part of the Penguins’ reign over the past few years, but at $4MM he has not cracked 40 points in any of the three seasons and can go cold for weeks at a time. Rutherford won’t make a move unless it can benefit the team, but if he can get another scoring winger in exchange for a package that dumps Hagelin’s salary, he’ll do it.

San Jose Sharks: None

Mikkel Boedker, Joel Ward, and Paul Martin are all gone. Two top forwards, the two best defensemen, and the starting goalie are all locked up long-term at a reasonable rate. The Sharks have almost $4.5MM in cap space this season, giving them room to add. Congratulations to GM Doug Wilson and his staff. This roster is the epitome of cap compliance mixed with depth and talent. There is not one contract that the team would be interested in dumping.

St. Louis Blues: Alexander Steen – three years, $17.25MM remaining

The Blues currently have all but $285K of their cap space committed to 24 players. The team may send Chris Thorburn or Jordan Nolan down to the AHL, but will only gain marginal space. Something else has to give. If they could target any player to move to alleviate some pressure, it would be Alexander Steen. With just seven forwards and three defensemen (as of now) signed beyond next season and the majority of players in line for raises or free agent replacements, these cap woes aren’t going away anytime soon and an expensive long-term deal needs to be shipped out. Understandably, St. Louis is all in this season and wouldn’t be eager to ship out an important top-six piece. However, Ryan O’Reilly, Vladimir Tarasenko, Brayden Schenn, and Jaden Schwartz are the new young core up front now and paying 34-year-old Steen $5.75MM for three more years for declining production just doesn’t make sense. The Blues could potentially land some nice pieces from another contender for Steen as well. Admittedly, the Tyler Bozak contract looks even worse than Steen’s, but the Blues won’t be looking to trade a player they just signed.

Tampa Bay Lightning: Ryan Callahan – two years, $11.6MM remaining

The long-term implications of several other deals aside, the Lightning’s Stanley Cup window is wide open and their focus is on the here and now. The one player really impeding their ability to add freely to the roster is Ryan Callahan. While GM Steve Yzerman has excelled at extending most of his core below market value, the six-year, $34.8MM contract for Callahan was a mistake. Injuries limited Callahan to just 18 games in 2016-17, but last year he played in 67 games yet he only managed to score 18 points. Callahan’s days as an impact player are over, but he is still being paid like one at $5.8MM. While Tampa Bay can manage this season with close to $3MM in cap space, they would have more to work with without him. However, Callahan’s contract will really present a major road block next summer, when the Bolts need to re-sign Brayden Point, Yanni Gourde, Anton Stralman, and more. There is no doubt that Yzerman will look to unload Callahan’s contract before it comes to that point.

Toronto Maple Leafs: Nikita Zaitsev – six years, $27MM remaining

The Maple Leafs severely jumped the gun when they rewarded Nikita Zaitsev with a seven-year deal after his rookie season in 2016-17. Although Zaitsev was an import, making his NHL debut at 25 years old, his situation epitomizes why bridge deals exist. Toronto sought to lock him up long term and gave him nearly a maximum term at $4.5MM, just $500K less per year than top defender Morgan Rielly. In his encore performance last season, he showed that he is not worthy of the salary nor length of that contract, dropping from 36 points to 13 points for the year, turning the puck over at an alarming rate, and eventually becoming a healthy scratch. This team simply can’t afford the type of long-term mistake that they made with Zaitsev. While it’s nice that they have Reilly, John Tavares, and Nazem Kadri signed long-term, it’s Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, and William Nylander they need to worry about. The Maple Leafs will have to balance multiple expensive, long-term deals moving forward and would love for Zaitsev’s to not be one of them.

Vancouver Canucks: Loui Eriksson – four years, $24MM remaining

It seems unlikely that the recently-signed deals for Jay Beagle and Antoine Roussel will work out well, but they at least deserve some time. Loui Eriksson has had his time and has done nothing with it. While the Canucks aren’t under any cap pressure, they can’t enjoy seeing Eriksson’s $6MM cap hit – the highest on the team – on the books for four more years, especially when the bulk of his front-loaded salary has already been paid out. Eriksson was brought in with an expectation that he would be the ultimate fit with Daniel and Henrik Sedin. Instead, he has scored just 47 points combined over two seasons, less than his final season total with the Boston Bruins. The Sedins are now gone, the team is trying to get both younger and more physical and defensive-minded, and Eriksson is simply an expensive poor fit. There’s not much more to say about a player who desperately needs a change of scenery and a team that wants him gone.

Vegas Golden Knights: None

The Golden Knights are riding high after an outrageously successful first season in the NHL. It is highly unlikely that they see anything wrong with their current contracts, almost all of which were either hand-picked or signed by GM George McPhee. Give it some time and that could change. Reilly Smith is notorious for a significant drop in production in his second year with a team, but is signed for four more years at $5MM. Paul Stastny for three years at $6.5MM per seems like a solid deal, but he has always produced better surrounded by equal talent. Does Vegas have enough to justify his signing? A $2.775MM cap hit for Ryan Reaves doesn’t seem to make a whole lot of sense. Finally, there’s the three-year, $21MM extension for heroic goalie but also 33-year-old well-worn vet Marc-Andre Fleury, which could end poorly. And this isn’t even counting what could be a massive reactionary contract for one-year breakout star William Karlsson. The Knights don’t see any problems right now after finding immediate success, but if they slide significantly in year two, things could get ugly.

Washington Capitals: T.J. Oshie – seven years, $40.25MM remaining

No, it’s not Tom Wilson. The call of the question is which contract each team wants to trade, not which is objectively the worst. Wilson’s contract does seem excessive, but he is just 24 and could grow into that salary (doubtful but possible). Plus, the organization loves what he brings to the team. T.J. Oshie on the other hand is heading in the wrong direction. Oshie has done what he was brought in to do: help the Capitals win the Stanley Cup. It took a max eight-year term to keep Oshie off the market last summer and now Washington has their Cup but also has a 31-year-old with diminishing returns signed for seven more years. Oshie could absolutely still help the Capitals over the next few years, but it’s doubtful that he will be back in 60-point range in that time. He also will be nothing more than a cap space vacuum when he’s in his late thirties making $5.75MM. Oshie is a great player and one of the more likeable guys in the league, but this contract has little upside left. The Capitals would at the very least consider trading Oshie now, which can’t be said for most of their other core players.

Winnipeg Jets: Jacob Trouba – one year, $5.5MM remaining

The list ends with a tricky one. Is $5.5MM a fair value for Trouba? An arbitrator thinks so and the Jets would likely agree. However, Trouba’s contract has been a nightmare for the team. The young defenseman clearly does not want to be in Winnipeg and has set himself up for yet another arbitration clash next summer, after which he will bolt in free agency. The Jets have no long-term security with Trouba and that meddles with their future planning. With Blake Wheeler, Tyler Myers, and several others also in need of new contracts next summer, the Jets don’t need another Trouba arbitration award cutting into their cap space just so that he can walk after the season. The team will definitely look to get maximum value in a trade for Trouba over the next season.

The Case For A Tristan Jarry Offer Sheet

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The art of the offer sheet is all but dead in the NHL. As The Athletic’s Craig Custance writes, there have only been eight offer sheets in the salary cap era, all but one have been matched, and none have been signed since 2013. It remains a shadowy threat for every GM looking to lock up his young restricted free agents, but at this point is more myth than reality. Custance even conducted a poll of nine GM’s that implied a feeling across the league that no offer sheets are coming this off-season. Even with attractive targets like the cap-strapped Detroit Red Wings’ Dylan Larkin, the Calgary Flames’ newly-acquired Noah Hanifin, and a key piece of the Toronto Maple Leafs’ young core, William Nylander, none of the GM’s could see a realistic spot where making an offer would be worth the effort as the team would always be able to match.

What about thinking outside the box and not looking at the top targets but at the team most unlikely to match? The Pittsburgh Penguins are not getting any sympathy from teams around the league. Winners of two of the last three Stanley Cups, a playoff team every year since 2007, and home to the best player in the league, the Penguins have had a great run and it’s unlikely to end any time soon. While many teams fear the backlash associated with poaching young players through offer sheets, Pittsburgh is perhaps the only team in the league that could come under attack and no one else would mind. The Penguins have also put themselves in a position that makes them easy prey. CapFriendly currently estimates that the team has just $745K in cap space heading into next season. Even if Jimmy Hayes fails to break camp or Zach Aston-Reese is sent down – the only foreseeable options, the Pens are still left with no more than $1.5MM in space and will need room to maneuver during the season.

Pittsburgh has just one restricted free agent left to re-sign: 23-year-old goaltender Tristan Jarry. Jarry has not been considered an offer sheet threat for a couple of reasons. The first is simply that he has yet to prove that he is a true NHL-caliber goalie. Jarry was a star at the junior level with the WHL’s Edmonton Oil Kings and was drafted in the second round by the Penguins in 2013. His first two pro seasons were spent entirely in the AHL, expect for one spot start in Pittsburgh, and he made the transition look easy, posting strong numbers through 78 combined games. Last season was a deviation from that smooth upward trajectory. The departure of Marc-Andre Fleury left Jarry as the primary backup to starter Matt Murray and the NHL level proved to be a little more difficult. Jarry had an up-and-down season with streaks of both good and bad play. He also struggled when he was returned to the AHL in favor of Casey DeSmith or briefly Antti Niemi. However, at the end of the season Jarry’s line of a .908 save percentage, 2.77 goals against average, and .609 quality start percentage in 26 NHL appearance was more than respectable for his first year in the bigs. Has he proven without a doubt that he can be an NHL regular or reliable backup? No, but the potential is there.

The other reason that Jarry would seem to be a strange offer sheet target is that he is waiver-exempt. Jarry is too young and inexperienced to have lost his waiver protection. This means that a team could hypothetically offer far above market value and multiple years and the Penguins could simply match it and stash Jarry in the minors without a second thought. The only problem is that Pittsburgh especially could not leave Jarry in the AHL for a whole season, nevertheless multiple. Since Murray became a fixture in net for the Penguins in 2015-16, he has made 111 appearances in three seasons with no more than 49 games in any year. In that same time, the Penguins have used six other goaltenders. Excluding Fleury, who was the starter in Murray’s first season and split time with him the following year, Jarry, DeSmith, Niemi, Mike Condon and Jeff Zatkoff have had to make 59 appearances over the past three years – more than half of Murray’s games played. Pittsburgh’s injury-prone starter clearly needs multiple quality options behind him until he can prove himself over a full season. DeSmith, who admittedly outplayed fellow rookie Jarry last season but in 12 fewer starts, may struggle to even backup Murray this season, nevertheless replace him for short stretches with untested minor league journeyman John Muse – the only other Penguins goalie – as the backup. The Penguins need a third-string goalie who costs as close the minimum against the cap as possible. If Jarry was to sign an offer sheet for even $1.5MM AAV, Pittsburgh would struggle to move that contract back and forth or keep him on the roster all year long. A team with ample cap space and a well-off ownership group could easily improve on that offer as well. Only moving out salary or injured reserve space would conceivably allow the Penguins to keep Jarry at that price or more.

At the end of the day, an offer with just the right amount of salary and term would be hard for the Penguins to match in their current state. Sure, they could simply sign a proven veteran free agent to a minimum deal and move on, but losing a promising young netminder would be a blow. On the other side of the table, it would only cost a team at most a third-round pick – the compensation for any deal with an AAV under $2.03MM – to land a young, high-ceiling goalie who is still waiver-exempt. If Jarry excels at the NHL level, they made a great deal; if he struggles, he can be sent to the AHL risk-free for further development and may still turn out be a great deal. The rest of the league would hardly mind seeing Pittsburgh and wheeler-dealer GM Jim Rutherford baffled by an offer sheet as well. It seems to be a win-win. Will it happen?

Marc-Andre Fleury Signs Three-Year Extension With Vegas Golden Knights

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Saturday: CapFriendly (via Twitter) provides a breakdown of the no-trade clause, noting that Fleury will be able to block a trade to ten teams each season.

Friday: The Vegas Golden Knights have locked up their goaltender, signing Marc-Andre Fleury to a three-year contract extension. Fleury still had one year remaining on his current contract, meaning this extension will kick in for the 2019-20 season. The deal will pay Fleury $21MM, and carry a cap hit of $7MM per season. It also includes a no-trade clause, though notably not a no-movement clause which was part of the reason Fleury ended up in Vegas in the first place. In the expansion draft process, teams were forced to protect players with no-movement clauses unless they agreed to waive it, something that Fleury did to help the Pittsburgh Penguins retain Matt Murray who would have been otherwise exposed. The Golden Knights won’t be in that same situation when the next expansion team comes around.

Instead, Fleury will continue to be the face of the NHL’s 31st franchise for a few more years. The 33-year old goaltender registered arguably the best season of his NHL career in 2017-18, when he fought through injury to lead the Golden Knights on a deep playoff run. In the regular season Fleury posted a .927 save percentage, the best full-season number of his career, and followed it up with the same number in the playoffs. That 20-game playoff run included four shutouts and just 47 goals allowed en route to a Stanley Cup Finals appearance in the franchise’ first season. Fleury is earning $5.75MM in the final year of his current contract but will get a healthy raise next year. Frank Seravalli of TSN gives us the yearly breakdown of the three-year extension:

  • 2019-20: $8.5MM
  • 2020-21: $6.5MM
  • 2021-22: $6.0MM

Indeed there is more to Fleury than his on-ice performance. He, James Neal and Deryk Engelland were immediately raised up as the new faces of the Golden Knights organization, the first two for their star power and the latter for his ties to the community. Though that moniker may now be shifting to younger stars like William Karlsson, Jonathan Marchessault and Nate Schmidt, who broke out as legitimate stars this season, Fleury remains a big part of the marketing strategy for Vegas. His personality and charm have been raised up as something to celebrate for the Golden Knights, and with his healthy on-ice performance backing it up he has become an even bigger star than he was in Pittsburgh—despite having won three Stanley Cups with the Penguins.

That explains some of why the team gave him a huge raise, but this contract doesn’t come without concerns. The fact that Fleury had a career year for the Golden Knights helped them find great success, but it also likely means he won’t be able to replicate or improve on his numbers going forward. He’ll turn 34 before the first year of the extension kicks in, and 35 soon after it does. Goaltenders—especially elite ones—can often hold on to their peak performance longer than the average player, but with Fleury’s history of injury and already relatively long career there could be a big drop off coming. Fleury of course broke into the NHL at the age of 18 after being selected first overall and has already played in 737 regular season NHL games, good for 22nd all-time. Add in his 135 playoff contests (which rank sixth all-time) and he’s already played more than an entire career’s worth for many goaltenders.

The question then becomes does Vegas actually suffer financially if Fleury’s on-ice performance drops even somewhat. The $7MM cap hit would be incredibly difficult to swallow for many teams, but the Golden Knights are starting from nothing and have room to spare going forward. They’re still not close to reaching the salary cap ceiling in 2019-20, and can easily fit in an extension for Karlsson without trouble. The issue though comes on whether this is a model for sustained success. For all the Golden Knights accomplished this season, their prospect pipeline is still shallow despite some top-end names from the 2017 draft. After trading away several picks to add Tomas Tatar, they found themselves waiting until #61 to make a selection in 2018 and again until #99 to step up to the podium for a second time. Though they still have plenty of selections going forward, cap space and financial might was their biggest weapon in trade negotiations.

Fleury alone doesn’t remove that weapon, and in fact Vegas will still be able to hold some cap-pressed teams hostage if they want to. But with several of the moves over the last few months the team has come from one with almost no long-term money on the books, to one with quite a bit. A long-term deal for Karlsson, which will be buying out almost entirely free agent seasons will only increase the amount of future finances that are wrapped up, and limit their ability to weaponize that immense freedom and space.

Still, no one in Vegas is complaining today as they lock up one of their top performers. Without Fleury the Golden Knights may have been swept out of the playoffs early, and he certainly can provide plenty of experience and leadership during any potential struggles. The deal’s front-loaded nature would actually make it easier to move down the line if someone like Malcolm Subban takes a big step forward and assumes the starting role, and the team has more than enough room to handle it themselves. Still, Vegas has to be careful where they make their next few bets, or risk losing their house advantage.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Snapshots: Fleury, Trotz, Lucic

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Among the many players that are eligible to sign contract extensions next month is Golden Knights goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury.  He wasted little time making his preference known, telling reporters, including Jesse Granger of the Las Vegas Sun, that he’s hoping to stick around beyond next season:

“Vegas has given me this opportunity to do what I love, and I wouldn’t want to go anywhere else. Hopefully I can finish my career here.”

The 33-year-old will enter the final year of his contract in 2018-19 with a $5.75MM cap charge.  His first season with the Golden Knights was certainly a memorable one as he posted a 2.24 GAA and a .927 SV% in 46 regular season games while putting up identical numbers in 20 postseason starts.  If he can put up comparable numbers next season, Fleury may be lining himself up for a nice raise on his next deal.

Elsewhere around the league:

  • There has been plenty of discussion surrounding Capitals head coach Barry Trotz who is without a contract for next season. Speaking following their win on Thursday, GM Brian MacLellan stated that Trotz wanted to be back, then he would be back.  Trotz told reporters, including Isabelle Khurshudyan of the Washington Post, that he “absolutely” sees a future for himself in Washington.  He plans to take a couple of days to enjoy the Stanley Cup victory and then start discussing a new deal.  One team that will certainly be keeping an eye on how talks go is the Islanders who now have a head coaching vacancy of their own to fill.
  • Following a report from Thursday that suggested that the Oilers were looking to move on from winger Milan Lucic, David Staples of the Edmonton Journal believes that there may be a taker for him around the league, even if it does require some sort of inducement to get someone to take the 30-year-old. He points out that there are always teams who value size and grit and the success of Washington’s Tom Wilson in the postseason certainly shows that there is still a place for those types of players in the league.  If a trade involving Lucic was to happen, it seems reasonable to think that it would occur after July 1st as he is due a $3.5MM signing bonus on that date.

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