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Free Agent Focus: Montreal Canadiens

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Free agency is now a little less than a month away and teams are looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several impact players set to hit the open market in July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well.  We continue our look around the NHL with an overview of the free agent situation for the Montreal Canadiens.

Key Restricted Free Agents

F Cole Caufield – While the Canadiens have the fifth-overall selection and there have long been rumors aplenty of Winnipeg Jets forward Pierre-Luc Dubois’ desire to play in Montreal, this Canadiens offseason is all about Caufield. The 22-year-old sniper has emerged as a star since he arrived on the scene late in the 2020-21 season and was scoring at a 46-goal pace before undergoing season-ending shoulder surgery.

Canadiens head coach Martin St. Louis seemed to revive Caufield after a miserable start to his rookie season and since the Canadiens’ new bench boss took over Caufield has been the centerpiece of Montreal’s offensive attack.

He won’t turn 23 until January, and his chemistry with team captain and franchise face Nick Suzuki is something Montreal can build around as they continue a rebuild. It’s overwhelmingly likely that the Canadiens would prefer a long-term extension for Caufield, similar to the eight-year deal former GM Marc Bergevin inked with Suzuki in 2021.

But the main question is whether the two sides can reach an agreement on a long-term deal both sides are satisfied with, as there are some questions that will need to be answered. While they remain likely to prefer a long-term deal, could the Canadiens be more hesitant to pay top dollar for a Caufield extension given Caufield’s shoulder injury?

On the flip side, could Caufield prefer a shorter bridge contract in order to sign his long-term deal a little further down the line when he won’t have his injury hanging over his head, and when the salary cap will be quite a bit higher? Those are difficult questions to answer, but thankfully for Canadiens fans the bottom line is there does appear to be a shared desire to find a long-term solution that keeps Caufield with the 24-time Stanley Cup champions.

F Denis Gurianov – Acquired in a straight swap for veteran scorer Evgenii Dadonov, Gurianov flashed some serious promise in Montreal but also remained mired in similar inconsistencies to the ones that doomed his tenure with the Dallas Stars. The 2015 12th overall pick turns 26 this summer and is eligible to receive a qualifying offer at the $2.9MM he made last season. After he scored five goals and eight points in 23 games in Montreal, the Canadiens will need to decide if they have a place for Gurianov next season, and if so whether they’re willing to keep him at his qualifying offer price tag.

As the success of offseason trade acquisition Kirby Dach illustrated, the Canadiens believe they have an exceptional player development infrastructure and the type of environment in place to allow underperforming players to take new steps forward in their careers. It’s possible that they’ll want to see what their staff can do with Gurianov given more time, though it does seem more likely that they’d prefer to retain him at a cap charge a few notches below his qualifying offer.

F Rafael Harvey-Pinard – Harvey-Pinard burst onto the scene after Caufield’s injury and ended up finishing the season tied for fourth on the Canadiens in goal scoring, proving to be a major success story for the Canadiens’ development pipeline. He scored 14 goals in just 34 games and showcased the kind of work ethic and hockey sense that reminded some fans of players such as Brendan Gallagher and Artturi Lehkonen.

A 2019 seventh-round pick, Harvey-Pinard has scored exceptionally well at the AHL level (56 points in 69 games in 2021-22, 16 goals, and 31 points in 40 games this past year) and seems to be a potential long-term NHL player for the Canadiens. It’s probably a bit too early for the team to consider an extension with significant term attached for Harvey-Pinard as he still has just 38 NHL games on his resume, but a short-term one-way deal that gives Harvey-Pinard the platform to shine on the Canadiens’ roster on a more extended basis could be the right move for both parties.

Other RFAs: F Jesse Ylonen, F Lucas Condotta, F Mitchell Stephens, F Joel Teasdale, D Nicolas Beaudin

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

F Sean Monahan – While the main reason the Canadiens acquired Monahan last summer was to acquire the first-round pick the Calgary Flames sent with him, early this season it seemed Montreal had unlocked something in Monahan as well. The 28-year-old averaged nearly 28 goals per season from 2013-2020 but had recently seen injuries decimate his on-ice effectiveness and availability. That paved the way for the Flames to pay the Canadiens to acquire him and for Monahan to get a clean slate to attempt to revive his career.

After 25 games, it seemed that he’d done exactly that as he’d scored 17 points, good for a 56-point 82-game pace. But once again major injuries prematurely ended Monahan’s season, and placed the future of his career into serious question. If he can remain healthy, he’s the type of player nearly every NHL team could find a place for. But he’s unfortunately been unable to find the ice consistently in recent years, and any interested teams will have to factor that into whether they offer him a contract.

The CBA has provisions placing Monahan in a unique position, where he will be eligible to earn performance bonuses on his next contract as a player who has played over 400 NHL games and spent over 100 days on injured reserve. Could an incentives-laden one-year deal returning Monahan to Montreal make sense for both sides?

F Jonathan Drouin – While it’s to a lesser extent than Monahan, injuries have also laid waste to the recent seasons of Drouin’s career. Significant wrist troubles have sapped much of the luster from a shot that scored 21 goals earlier in his career, and Drouin scored only two goals in 58 games this past season. Now 28 years old, it’s clear the 2013 third-overall pick isn’t going to be the star offensive generator he was once promised to become.

But what’s also clear is that Drouin still has something to offer an NHL club. Despite lacking the ability to threaten defenders and netminders with his shot, Drouin still managed to tally 27 assists and finished with 29 points in 58 games, a 41-point full-season pace. He remains a skilled offensive player capable of contributing on a scoring line, and given his recent struggles he could likely be signed this summer to a relatively cheap contract.

With the ability to sign anywhere, Drouin will likely be more of a priority for clubs hard-pressed by the salary cap looking to add some skill on the cheap to their roster. As a result, it looks increasingly likely that his formal exit from Montreal will come soon.

F Alex Belzile – A well-traveled minor-league veteran, Belzile set a career-high in NHL games played with 31 this season, and scored decently well with 14 points in largely a fourth-line role. Belzile is a versatile depth forward with some physicality to offer and has been a difference-making AHLer for many years now. It’s likely in the Canadiens’ best interest to retain him on a reasonable contract extension to bolster the lower end of their NHL lineup, though one can’t rule out that Belzile’s recent performances might have generated leaguewide interest in his services.

Other UFAs: F Anthony Richard, F Chris Tierney, F Paul Byron, D Frederic Allard, D Madison Bowey, D Corey Schueneman

Projected Cap Space

With Carey Price’s $10.5MM AAV contract now almost certainly a permanent LTIR fixture, the Canadiens have more breathing room under the cap than they might have had in recent years. The expiry of Monahan and Drouin’s two contracts, which together cost over $10MM against the cap, provides additional room for the team to maneuver. While a solid chunk of the Canadiens’ projected $19MM in cap space will be earmarked for a Caufield extension, there remains ample room for the team to operate and potentially make some meaningful additions.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Minor Transactions: 06/04/23

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The start of the new league year and NHL free agency is inching closer, and more transaction activity is picking up throughout the world of professional hockey. We’ll keep track of moves from overseas and minor leagues here.

  • Former Vancouver Canuck Mike Zalewski will not receive a contract offer from ICEHL club Klagenfurt AC, ending his one-year stint there. A versatile forward who contributed to the 32-time Austrian champions’ penalty kill, Zalewski scored just five points in 20 games this season for Klagenfurt after a December transfer from Graz. The undrafted 30-year-old last played in North America in 2016-17, when he scored 18 points in 54 AHL games and managed to skate in one contest for the Vancouver Canucks.
  • Former college hockey star Troy Loggins has signed a one-year contract to remain with his current club, HC Nove Zamsky of the Slovakian Extraliga. The soon-to-be-28-year-old scorer transferred to Slovakia in January after beginning the season with Swedish HockeyAllsvenskan side Vasterviks IK. Before signing in Sweden last summer, Loggins had tried his luck at playing North American pro hockey and found some success at the ECHL level, scoring 25 points in 45 games for the Toledo Walleye in 2019-20. He also managed to skate in 28 AHL contests the following season, and now that he’s playing overseas he seems to have established himself as a difference-maker at the top level of Slovak pro hockey.
  • Veteran SHL rearguard Jonas Ahnelov announced he is leaving Leksands IF on social media today, confirming the end of his four-season run there. The 35-year-old 2006 third-round pick played three seasons in North America from 2008-2011, each with the AHL’s San Antonio Rampage. While he never made it to the NHL, Ahnelov has had an accomplished career patrolling the bluelines of the SHL and KHL. He’s logged over 500 games at the highest level of Swedish hockey and another 140 in Russia, and will now need to find a new team in order to continue his pro career.
  • 2020 Montreal Canadiens sixth-round pick Alexander Gordin is rumored to have signed a one-year contract with VHL club Ryazan VDV, per a report out of Russia. The 21-year-old forward was selected 171st overall at the 2020 draft by the Canadiens and this past season broke into Russia’s second-tier league, the VHL, as a regular for the first time. He scored eight goals and 12 points in 36 games for HK Rostov and also managed two points in six games at the KHL level with HK Sochi. As a drafted KHL prospect the Canadiens hold Gordin’s rights indefinitely, so they will likely continue to monitor his prospects moving forward, though with this transfer it is looking less and less likely that a future in Montreal is in the cards, though it’s obviously not impossible.

This page may be updated throughout the day. 

Free Agent Focus: Minnesota Wild

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Free agency is now a little less than a month away and teams are looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several impact players set to hit the open market in July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well.  We continue our look around the NHL with an overview of the free agent situation for the Minnesota Wild.

Key Restricted Free Agents

G Filip Gustavsson – A 2016 second-round pick, Gustavsson was acquired by the Wild last offseason in a one-for-one trade with veteran Cam Talbot. The expectation was that Gustavsson would serve in tandem with entrenched starter Marc-Andre Fleury, with the future Hall of Famer likely to receive the higher-leverage starts. Gustavsson blew all those expectations out of the water, though, and in 39 games played posted a .931 save percentage and 2.10 goals-against-average, marks that ranked second in the NHL behind Vezina Trophy frontrunner Linus Ullmark.

The 24-year-old’s breakout came as a surprise due to the fact that he had posted just an .892 save percentage with the Ottawa Senators in 18 games the year prior, and he has a career .898 save percentage in the AHL. But it came at an incredible time for Gustavsson, as he’s now due for a new contract and has put together about as strong of a recent body of work as a netminder could hope to have.

For Minnesota, the difficulty with Gustavsson’s new deal will be deciding whether they believe he can replicate this past season’s form. Investing significant dollars in him based on a sample size of under 50 starts is a risk, and the Wild have to think about who they have in the pipeline – top goalie prospect Jesper Wallstedt. Recent reporting indicates both sides are optimistic a deal will be reached, but with Minnesota strapped for cap space, these negotiations could be difficult.

D Calen Addison – The 23-year-old Addison’s rookie season was quite the up-and-down affair. There were some genuine positives, such as Addison leading the NHL in rookie power play scoring with 18 power play points. The blueliner finished with 29 points in 62 games played, which is nearly a 40-point 82-game pace. That’s an extremely impressive level of production for a first-year rearguard. But Addison’s play at even strength routinely drew criticism and the difficulties he faced defending in his own end resulted in him becoming a frequent healthy scratch later in the Wild’s season.

That mix of exciting promise and disappointing inconsistency places Addison in an intriguing spot heading into the offseason. He’s clearly developed beyond the AHL level (he was an All-Star and All-Rookie team selection in 2002-21) but in order to earn the trust of head coach Dean Evason, he’s going to need to take major steps forward in his game. His box score numbers likely merit a decent raise from the $795k cap hit he played his rookie season on, but one wonders if Minnesota is ready to commit to him in that sort of fashion.

Other RFAs: F Sam Steel, F Brandon Duhaime, F Mason Shaw, F Damien Giroux, F Nick Swaney, G Hunter Jones

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

D Matt Dumba – With the emergence of Brock Faber late in the Wild’s season and the team’s ever-present salary cap issues, it seems this Dumba’s exit from Minnesota after nearly a decade as a lineup regular will be confirmed later this summer. The soon-to-be 29-year-old blueliner is still widely respected in the Wild organization for what he brings to the table, but it would take significant creativity for the Wild to find a way to match the types of offers Dumba could receive from other clubs on the open market.

While his offensive production has declined precipitously from 2017-18’s 50-point peak, Dumba still logs top-four minutes and is a valued locker room leader. It’s true that he might have trouble earning the $6MM he earns on his current deal in today’s current cap environment, though it would be no shock to see him cross the $4MM AAV mark on a multi-year deal, which is likely to be a price too rich for the Wild to afford.

D John Klingberg – Expected to land a major free agent contract in last summer’s open market, interest in Klingberg’s services was less robust than he or his representation may have anticipated. This resulted in him accepting a one-year, $7MM contract from the Anaheim Ducks with the likely hope that he’d have another strong season and re-enter the open market on even stronger footing. Klingberg didn’t exactly have a strong season, though, as he failed to make a difference on what was an anemic Ducks power play, and his declined offensive production shined an even harsher light on his deficiencies as an all-around defenseman.

The former 67-point scorer remains a dynamic offensive defenseman, but as he’s set to turn 31 years old he’s unlikely to receive the type of payday he seemed lined up for just over a year ago. And whatever contract offer he does end up accepting, it’s unlikely to be from the Wild due to their lack of cap space.

F Oskar Sundqvist – Sundqvist, like Klingberg, was a mid-season trade acquisition of the Wild. He actually played quite well in Minnesota, providing versatility and physicality to their lineup, but injuries have significantly impacted his ability to build momentum as a difference-making NHLer.

Now 29 years old, Sundqvist is likely to be an in-demand bottom-six option on the open market next month.

While Minnesota would surely like to be able to retain the 2019 Stanley Cup Champion’s services, they’re also more likely to rely on cheaper players to fill roles deeper in their lineup.

As a result, Sundqvist will likely be forced elsewhere if he wants to have a chance at matching the $2.75MM AAV he earned on his last deal.

F Gustav Nyquist – Nyquist only managed to play in nine games as a member of the Wild thanks to an injury he suffered as a member of the Columbus Blue Jackets, but he nonetheless managed to make his mark. He managed to score 10 points in those nine games, and his five points in six playoff games tied him for the team lead with Ryan Hartman and Mats Zuccarello. Set to turn 34 before the start of next season, Nyquist is unlikely to receive significant long-term offers this summer.

But his form in Minnesota reminded teams that he’s still capable of some valuable offensive production, and it was only one season ago that he managed to cross the 50-point mark for the third time in his career. Nyquist has scored 40 or more points in a season eight times and is likely to be an option for a team with some cap space looking to add some reliable production to their middle-six.

Other UFAs: F Ryan Reaves, F Brandon Baddock, F Mitchell Chaffee, D Joe Hicketts, D Dakota Mermis, G Zane McIntyre

Projected Cap Space

This is where things get tricky for Minnesota. The team will have $14,743,588 in dead money on their books thanks to the buyouts of Ryan Suter and Zach Parise, a figure that eats up nearly one-fifth of their total available salary cap space. Since their core of key contributors from Kirill Kaprizov to Joel Eriksson Ek eat up significant cap space as well, the team has very little financial room to maneuver this summer. They should have enough to take care of contract extensions for expiring players such as Gustavsson and Addison, but pursuing more meaningful roster upgrades (such as acquiring a long-awaited star-level first-line center) is likely to either require major roster surgery or some extreme financial creativity.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Free Agent Focus: Dallas Stars

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Free agency is a month away and teams are looking ahead to when it opens.  There will be several impact players set to hit the open market in July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well.  We continue our look around the NHL with an overview of the free agent situation for the Dallas Stars.

Key Restricted Free Agents

F Ty Dellandrea – Playing in his first complete season in the NHL, Dellandrea made a massive improvement on his previous two seasons. This year, playing in a full 82 games, the young forward scored nine goals and 19 assists while averaging a bit over 14 minutes of ice time per night. Dellandrea also provided the Stars with a serious physical presence, throwing 125 body checks on the season.

Drafted 13th overall in the 2018 NHL Draft, the Stars were waiting on a talent outburst that Dellandrea could provide. Playing mostly in the AHL last season, Dellandrea scored 23 goals and 27 assists in 68 games for the Texas Stars, finishing second on the team in points.

In the playoffs this year, Dellandrea actually received more playing time than he did during the regular season, based in large part due to Joe Pavelski’s injury against the Minnesota Wild. In 15 games, Dellandrea scored three goals, two of those coming in the Stars’ Game Five victory against the Vegas Golden Knights in the Western Conference Finals.

As Dallas looks to remain competitive in the Western Conference, and will surely look to continue their run of being a Stanley Cup contender, Dellandrea will be an important piece to keep around. Holding a workhours mentality, Dellandrea’s ability to provide offense at clutch moments, and also provide an undeniable physical presence, is an important piece to have on any team looking to capture the Stanley Cup.

Other RFAs: F Nicholas Caamano, F Riley Damiani, F Scott Reedy, F Marian Studenic, D Dawson Barteaux, D Oskari Laaksonen, G Matt Murray, G Adam Scheel

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

F Evgenii Dadonov – Acquired in an under-the-radar trade with the Montreal Canadiens prior to the 2023 NHL Trade Deadline, Dadonov quickly became the most important trade acquisition for Dallas during the regular season. In 23 games for the Stars, Dadonov scored only three goals but still managed 12 assists down the stretch for Dallas.

He continued his strong pace in the playoffs, scoring four goals and six assists in 16 games, including one game-winning goal. Although finishing a contract that was paying him a total of $5MM a season, Dadonov’s next contract should come at a much lower cost. The contract was originally signed with the Ottawa Senators back in 2020, but Dadonov has been traded three times since the ink hit the paper.

F Max Domi – Also coming in as a trade deadline acquisition, Domi was brought in to fill the hole on the Stars’ second line next to Tyler Seguin and Mason Marchment. The trio did not stay healthy down the stretch, and fans were unable to see the full line in action until the Stanley Cup playoffs.

Although Domi had a slow start to his career with Dallas, this line really came together during the playoffs, completely taking over the game during the series against the Minnesota Wild. On an individual level, Domi himself completely unleashed during the Stars’ Game Four win over the Seattle Kraken, scoring two goals and one assist to secure the victory. Being traded twice in as many seasons, Domi will surely be looking for a multi-year agreement this summer to obtain some security.

Other UFAs: F Luke Glendening, F Joel Kiviranta, F Frederik Olofsson, D Joel Hanley, G Dylan Wells, F Riley Barber, F Rhett Gardner, F Fredrik Karlstrom, F Tanner Kero, F Riley Tufte, D Will Butcher, D Benjamin Gleason, D Alexander Petrovic, D Jerad Rosburg, D Ryan Shea

Projected Cap Space

With several depth pieces scheduled to hit free agency, the Stars only have around $7.4MM available to them in cap space this summer. Their major extension has already been signed, as Pavelski will remain another year at $3.5MM.

If the team does look to extend all three of Dellandrea, Dadonov, and Domi, they will undoubtedly need to create some sort of cap space in the process. Unfortunately, if the team is not looking to include a draft selection or prospect in a trade, they will likely lose either Dadonov or Domi to free agency.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Bettman Presser Notes: World Cup, Senators, Relocation, Nichushkin, Front Office

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Before the start of the Stanley Cup Final between the Florida Panthers and the Vegas Golden Knights, Commissioner of the NHL, Gary Bettman, and Deputy Commissioner of the NHL, Bill Daly, gave their annual version of hockey’s “State of the Union” address to the media. The two spoke at length about a plethora of topics, and one of the more intriguing tidbits was that the NHL is looking into bringing back the World Cup of Hockey (Tweet Link).

In 1996, what was formerly known as the Canada Cup, the World Cup of Hockey was born, and it took place at the then-new Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia, and also the then-new Bell Centre in Montreal. The United States was the eventual champion, beating Canada in three games.

The tournament took a short break, continuing again in 2004, where Canada became the eventual winner against Finland. The last time the tournament was held was back in 2016 when Canada beat the European team in two games.

In the 2016 rendition, the World Cup of Hockey featured new teams such as Europe and North America. The European team featured countries that were not represented by their own national teams, including players from countries such as Austria, Denmark, France, Germany, Norway, etc. The North American, which ended up being one of the most fun teams to watch during the tournament, featured players from Canada and the United States that were under the age of 23.

Other notes:

  • As the Ottawa Senators look to find a new owner, Bettman states that the process could still take a couple more weeks (Tweet Link). The last time the Senators went through a sale was back in 2003 when the late Eugene Melnyk purchased the team for a reported sum of $92MM. Melnyk oversaw the Senators team that made it to the Stanley Cup Final in 2007, and the Eastern Conference Finals in 2017. Having passed in the spring of 2022, the team residing in Canada’s capital should have a new owner by the end of the month.
  • After the announcement that the city of Tempe would not be housing the Arizona Coyotes, rumors immediately sprung about a possible relocation. In the press conference, Bettman reported that Ryan Smith, the current owner of the NBA’s Utah Jazz, has expressed interest in relocating the Coyotes to Salt Lake City (Tweet Link). Although this is considerable news, especially coming from the Commissioner, Bettman did express a strong desire for the Coyotes to remain in Arizona and says that the NHL is helping the franchise find locations in Phoenix.
  • Early in the 2023 NHL Playoffs, it was reported that forward Valeri Nichushkin of the Colorado Avalanche would be sent home for the remainder of the playoffs. Asked about this during their press conference, especially in light of the police body came footage being released, Daly reports that Nichushkin is not under investigation, and is free to play during the 2023-24 NHL season (Tweet Link). Although it was never reported otherwise, it is positive news for Colorado, after recently receiving news that captain Gabriel Landeskog would miss the entirety of next season.
  • As eliminated teams are looking to fill both General Manager and head coach vacancies, it appears that two names could be officially coming to the market. Bettman reports that longtime NHL head coach, Joel Quenneville, and former General Manager, Stan Bowman, have both requested interviews to be reinstated in the league (Tweet Link). Both have been prohibited from working in the NHL ever since the sexual assault exposure from former player, Kyle Beach, came out during the 2010 Stanley Cup playoffs.

 

PHR Playoff Primer: Florida Panthers vs Vegas Golden Knights

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With the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs now underway, PHR makes its first foray into playoff series analysis with our 2023 Playoff Primers. Where does each team stand in their series, and what storylines could dominate on and off the ice? Our Stanley Cup Playoffs coverage concludes with the Stanley Cup Finals matchup between the Florida Panthers and Vegas Golden Knights.

Before the 2023 Stanley Cup Finals get underway, we know that one franchise will win its first Stanley Cup in franchise history. The last time this was true was back in the 2018 Stanley Cup Final, as the Washington Capitals defeated the Vegas Golden Knights in five games.

For the Golden Knights, this will be their second Cup Final in six years, already becoming one of the most successful expansion franchises in the history of the league. Going on a Cinderella run for seemingly the entire year of their inception, the current iteration of the team has much more star talent than their last Finals appearance.

The Florida Panthers, a year removed from winning the President’s Trophy as the top regular season team, have mirrored the Golden Knights’ Cinderella run from six years ago. The last team to find a spot in the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs, the Panthers knocked off this year’s President’s Trophy winner, the Boston Bruins, followed up by knocking off the Toronto Maple Leafs and Carolina Hurricanes.

Regular Season Performance

Vegas: 51-22-9, 111 points, +43 goal differential
Florida: 42-32-8, 92 points, +17 goal differential

Head-To-Head

January 12, 2023: Vegas 4, Florida 2
March 7, 2023: Florida 2, Vegas 1

Season series tied 1-1-0

Team Storylines

In terms of offense, there are names that stick out immediately for both teams: Matthew Tkachuk for the Panthers, and Jack Eichel for Vegas. In 16 games for Tkachuk, the new pride of Florida has scored nine goals and 12 assists, including a whopping four game-winners. Already having four years of playoff experience under his belt with the Calgary Flames, this has been far and above Tkachuk’s best performance after the regular season.

Unlike Tkachuk, getting his first taste of NHL playoff action after many years spent with the rebuilding Buffalo Sabres, Eichel has shown exactly why he would have been a first-overall selection in any draft not featuring Connor McDavid. In 17 games played this postseason, Eichel has scored six goals and 12 assists, showing incredible prowess on Vegas’ powerplay.

Aside from their primary offensive weapon in Tkachuk, Florida has four other players that have scored over 10 points in this year’s playoffs, including Carter Verhaeghe, Aleksander Barkov, Sam Reinhart, and Sam Bennett. Vegas, on the other hand, has a total of six players that have scored over 10 points, including Jonathan Marchessault, Ivan Barbashev, Mark Stone, William Karlsson, Chandler Stephenson, and Reilly Smith.

On defense, Florida’s primary defenseman in this year’s playoffs, and throughout much of the year has been Brandon Montour. Having a complete breakout year in the regular season, scoring 73 points in 80 games, Montour has kept up his excellent play throughout the playoffs. In 16 games, he’s scored six goals and three assists while averaging almost 28 minutes a night for the Panthers. If having a defenseman of Montour’s status wasn’t good enough, Florida also has the first-overall selection of the 2014 NHL Draft, Aaron Ekblad, in the midst, also carrying the ability to make big plays and eat steady minutes on the back end.

Clearly the best defenseman in Vegas, and arguably the top defenseman in this year’s playoffs, is Alex Pietrangelo. Although receiving a one-game suspension after slashing Edmonton Oilers’ all-star Leon Draisaitl, Pietrangelo has scored nine points in 16 games, averaging around 24 minutes a night for the Golden Knights. Carrying a rating of +8 up to this point, Pietrangelo has also been a fantastic powerplay quarterback for Vegas.

In net, as much as fans might think there is a larger separation between the two in terms of name recognition, both Sergei Bobrovsky and Adin Hill are playing some of the best goaltending of their individual careers. In 14 games for Bobrovsky, he has managed an 11-2-0 record, carrying a .935 SV% and a 2.21 GAA. Surprisingly, posting slightly better numbers than Bobrovsky, Hill has a 7-3-0 record in 11 games played, posting a .937 SV% and a 2.07 GAA.

Prediction

An often-used trope is especially good when it’s true, and in terms of this series, it could go either way. Both team’s are leaning on their star players for scoring, but are also receiving plenty of depth scoring as well. Both teams have minute-munching defensemen that can lead on both sides of the puck, and both teams have goaltenders that are playing superbly between the pipes.

Although it’s difficult to find any separation between these two teams, the one big distinction would be the goal differential, where Vegas holds a +10 advantage over the Panthers in that category. However, goal differential or not, the Panthers also hold a very slight advantage in winning percentage. Vegas was able to shut down McDavid, Draisaitl, and Roope Hintz, while Florida was table to silence Sebastian Aho, Mitch Marner, and David Pastrnak.

In the end, much like we’ve seen in past Stanley Cup Finals, the hockey gods will always have their way, and the more they win, the more it seems fate is on the side of the Panthers this year. Tkachuk has held the weight of his performance, and as the emotional leader above his shoulders for Florida throughout the playoffs, and look for him to replace that weight with 34.5 pounds of silver and nickel when all is said and done.

Prediction: Panthers win in seven games.

Blues Not Planning To Use A Buyout This Offseason

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Like many teams this summer, cap space is at a premium for St. Louis this summer, leading to suggestions that they’ll try to move out a veteran player to free up some wiggle room.  If they wind up doing so, it won’t be via the buyout route as GM Doug Armstrong told reporters including Matthew DeFranks of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch that he doesn’t see the Blues taking that approach with any of their players when the window opens up later this month.

As things stand, the Blues have around $7.5MM in cap room for next season, per CapFriendly, assuming that the Upper Limit only moves up by $1MM.  With that money, they have a few forwards to sign and possibly a backup goalie if they feel they’re better off with Joel Hofer getting one more season of starter minutes in the minors before moving up to the NHL full-time.  They have enough money to do those things but that won’t leave much left for roster improvements.  While Armstrong indicated that he will be looking to be active this summer, he understands the team isn’t a player or two away from getting back in the playoffs.

“I think there’s a little bit of you see the team that got in on the last couple of days go to the finals, it’s like let’s get there really quick again. We want to make sure that we’re doing things that are long-term success. I don’t see us being, as I said, very active. We’re going to be active, but we’re going to be smart active, we’re not just one player away from being a favorite to win.”

Some wondered if defenseman Marco Scandella could be a buyout candidate this summer with one year left on his deal that carries a $3.275MM cap charge.  He has struggled in recent seasons and dealt with injury woes in 2022-23 but he was able to return late in the year, making him buyout-eligible.  Such a move would have freed up $2MM in cap savings for next season but added $1MM in dead money for 2024-25.  Armstrong’s comments would appear to take that idea off the table although it wouldn’t be surprising to see the veteran shopped on the trade market in the coming weeks.

It has been quite a while since St. Louis went the route of a contract buyout as the team has done it only twice with the most recent coming back in 2009 when they opted to buy out the final season of Jay McKee’s contract.  It doesn’t appear as if they’ll be ending that streak this summer.

East Notes: Killorn, Orlov, Rangers

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The Lightning are believed to have made a long-term, low AAV offer to pending unrestricted free agent winger Alex Killorn, notes Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman in his latest 32 Thoughts column.  The 33-year-old is coming off a career year that saw him put up 27 goals and 37 assists in 82 games and has the most points of any player set to hit the open market.  After playing on a $4.45MM AAV deal that has been team-friendly the last couple of seasons, Killorn will have a chance at a sizable increase in free agency.  Tampa Bay would undoubtedly love to keep him in the fold but with minimal cap space to work with this summer, they can’t afford to pay market value.  Accordingly, their most realistic chance to keep him is a long-term agreement that would almost certainly be an overpayment by the time it expires but a low enough AAV that they can squeak him in under the Upper Limit.  Even so, that will be a tough sell.

Elsewhere in the East:

  • While the Bruins would likely want to keep defenseman Dmitry Orlov in the fold if they could free up enough cap space to do so, the veteran told Sport-Express’ Alexey Shevchenko that he’s looking forward to seeing what’s available in free agency. The 31-year-old is coming off another strong season, notching 36 points in 66 games between Washington and Boston while logging 22:33 per night, the second-highest ATOI of his career.  Orlov, who also indicated that he’s not planning to sign in the KHL, is coming off a contract that carries a $5.1MM AAV and is likely to get a fair bit more than that on the open market with a long-term agreement.
  • The Rangers have not yet interviewed Patrick Roy for their coaching vacancy, reports Larry Brooks of the New York Post. However, it’s worth noting that Roy is still coaching with his QMJHL team, Quebec, set to play the final game of the Memorial Cup on Sunday so perhaps at that time, GM Chris Drury might reach out to his former teammate.  Roy has some NHL experience under his belt having spent three seasons behind the bench in Colorado before abruptly resigning in 2016.  Among coaches still available New York has already interviewed Peter Laviolette and Jay Leach and the team is set to do so soon with John Hynes if they haven’t already done so.

Offseason Checklist: Minnesota Wild

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The offseason has arrived for all but the two teams that still have a shot at winning the Stanley Cup.  It’s time to examine what those eliminated squads will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Minnesota.

Despite leading the NHL in dead cap space by a significant margin, the Wild were in the thick of the playoff race at the trade deadline, resulting in GM Bill Guerin opting to add several pieces to aid in what they hoped would be a long playoff run.  Instead, it was an early exit at the hands of Dallas.  The in-season flexibility they had is no more but Minnesota’s checklist this offseason involves trying to add proven (and thus, more expensive) players at multiple positions to their roster.

Look For Center Upgrade

This has been a long-standing issue for the Wild going back for years.  They have always had some strong pieces on their roster but finding consistent impact middlemen has been a challenge.  Joel Eriksson Ek is coming along nicely and has become a quality two-way top-six center but isn’t a top option.  Frederick Gaudreau has fared better than they could have hoped when they signed him in 2021 but he’s not an ideal top-six threat.  Ryan Hartman can play down the middle but is a better fit on the wing while Sam Steel isn’t the solution either.

In an ideal world, the Wild find a way to land a top center, filling a long-standing need and giving Kirill Kaprizov a true running mate on the top line.  But realistically, is that achievable?  There aren’t any true number one options in free agency and while Winnipeg might have an impact center available on the trade front, would they really move him within the division?  That doesn’t seem too likely.

Taking a step down, adding another second-line center, while still a difficult task in this market, would still be a big help.  That would at least allow them to mix and match the newcomer with Eriksson Ek which helps in matchups.  It would also give them a boost offensively after finishing 22nd in the NHL in goals scored.  However, it must be said that they only have about $9MM in cap space per CapFriendly with anywhere from six to eight players needing to fit into that money.  Finding a way to add some proven help down the middle would result in them subtracting from somewhere else on their roster.

Minnesota still likely has high hopes for Marco Rossi, the ninth-overall pick back in 2020.  A natural center, he could eventually fill a spot in the top six.  But that time won’t be coming next season after a tough showing that saw him record just one assist in 19 NHL games although he picked up 51 points in 53 games with AHL Iowa.  Down the road, Rossi could be an option but they shouldn’t be counting on him for too much in 2023-24.

Re-Sign Gustavsson

Last offseason, Guerin freed up some cap room by moving Cam Talbot to Ottawa for Filip Gustavsson, a move that opened up nearly $2.9MM in flexibility.  The swap certainly carried some risk to it as they went from a proven NHL netminder to one that had all of 27 games of experience with numbers that weren’t overly confidence-inspiring.  However, those concerns were unfounded as the 24-year-old had a simply dominant 2022-23 campaign, recording a 2.10 GAA and a .931 SV% in 39 games, ranking him second to only Boston’s Linus Ullmark in both categories.

The timing was great for such a showing as Gustavsson is set to become a restricted free agent this summer with salary arbitration rights for the first time.  He’s well-positioned to earn a significant raise on the $787.5K AAV he had the last two seasons although, with now just 66 regular season appearances under his belt, it’s fair to say that he doesn’t have enough of a track record to land true starter money (nor can they afford to give him that).

One question that Guerin will need to answer is how long he wants the deal to be.  Gustavsson is two years away from UFA eligibility while they also have top prospect Jesper Wallstedt waiting in the wings.  A long-term contract is out of the question but is the better play to do a medium-term agreement or a one-year pact that buys both sides more time to assess if his performance was a one-off or a sign of things to come?

The one-year deal would be cheaper (likely somewhere in the $3MM area) but it would also give him a quick ticket to file for arbitration in 2024 and go straight to unrestricted free agency the following year if he wanted.  On the slip side, a contract that buys out a year or two of UFA eligibility would likely push past the $4MM mark but give them a bit of certainty in the NHL with Marc-Andre Fleury’s deal up next summer and Wallstedt still a few years away from being ready to push for the starting job.  But can they afford that and accomplish everything else they want or need to this summer?  That could be tricky and ultimately dictate what direction they go with their young netminder.

Zuccarello Extension Talks

While his tenure with Minnesota got off to a bit of a slow start in 2019-20 in the first of his five-year deal, veteran winger Mats Zuccarello has been one of the key producers for the Wild since then.  The 35-year-old has frequently been on a line with Kaprizov and the results were certainly there this season as Zuccarello surpassed the 20-goal mark for the second time while picking up 67 points, the second-most of his career.  His two most productive years have been the last two seasons.  That’s certainly a strong selling point heading into extension talks this summer; Zuccarello is eligible for a new deal as of July 1st.

Zuccarello’s next deal will be a 35-plus agreement as he’ll be starting his age-37 season in 2024-25 but even so, there’s a good chance he’ll get a multi-year contract.  However, that age is likely to be a mitigating factor when it comes to the cost.  At a $6MM price tag currently, his recent level of production would typically move that AAV higher but it might not in this case.

Some teams have shown a willingness to add on an extra year than they might prefer in return for a lower cap hit and it wouldn’t be too shocking to see Minnesota do so here.  They still have two seasons of significant dead cap space from the Ryan Suter and Zach Parise buyouts before those costs dip by more than $13MM.  That would make it easier for them to carry Zuccarello a little longer on their books long-term while his accepting a similar (if not slightly lesser) cap charge now will help their short-term challenges for 2024-25.  This one doesn’t have to get done now but as the offseason progresses, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the two sides get the ball rolling on discussions.

Add Defensive Help

Minnesota’s back end is going to look a bit different on opening night in October compared to the unit that they iced at the end of the first round against Dallas.  Long-time Wild blueliner Mathew Dumba seems all but a lock to move on now following a tough year.  Trade deadline addition John Klingberg was a straight rental and isn’t expected to be back either.  On top of that, veteran Alex Goligoski clearly doesn’t seem to be a part of their plans moving forward after being scratched more than 30 times during the regular season and the entire first round.  He still has another year left at $2MM and it’s likely they wouldn’t mind finding a new home for him, assuming Goligoski waives his trade protection.

Additionally, there are questions about Calen Addison’s future with the team after he, too, sat in the playoffs.  The 23-year-old had a productive year with 29 points in 62 games and is set to become a restricted free agent for the first time this summer.  He should have some trade value if they decide to move him but that’s also going to open up another spot on the back end to fill.

Brock Faber will be around for his first full professional campaign after signing late in the season but there is definitely at least one opening to fill, even if Addison sticks around.  In a perfect world, a top-four blueliner to round out the top three of Jared Spurgeon, Jonas Brodin, and Jacob Middleton but again, that will be tricky given their current salary cap situation.  Guerin is going to have to get creative to address this in the coming weeks as a result.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Minor Transactions: 6/3/23

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Free agency is now less than a month away and activity on the transaction front is starting to pick up around the hockey world.  With that in mind, we’ll keep track of some of the minor moves of some interest here.

  • Russian winger Konstantin Okulov has again opted not to pursue an NHL contract, instead signing a two-year extension with CSKA Moscow, the KHL team announced. The 28-year-old has drawn NHL interest on several occasions and likely would have had a fairly strong market again this year after notching 54 points in 60 games this season, putting him tied for tenth in league scoring.  If he continues to play at that level over the next two years, there could still be some NHL interest for him in 2025.
  • While Carl Lindbom signed his entry-level deal with Vegas back on Thursday, he won’t be debuting in North America next season. Instead, Farjestad of the SHL announced that Vegas has loaned the 20-year-old to them for the 2023-24 campaign.  Lindbom had strong numbers in Sweden’s second-tier Allsvenskan this season, posting a 1.86 GAA with a .930 SV% in 36 games and will now get a chance to try his hand at Sweden’s top level.
  • Former Canadiens center Lukas Vejdemo has signed a four-year deal with SHL Leksand, per a team release. The 27-year-old missed most of last season after suffering a hamstring injury late in the 2021-22 campaign but caught on late with Djurgarden of the second-tier Allsvenskan late in the season.  The term of this deal makes it unlikely that Vejdemo – who has two goals in 13 career NHL games – will get another opportunity in North America.

This post will be updated throughout the day.

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