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Mitch Marner

Golden Knights Acquire, Extend Mitch Marner

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Tuesday: Both sides have officially announced the one-for-one swap.

Monday, 6:45 p.m.: PuckPedia has shared the financial breakdown of Marner’s new deal with Vegas:

  • Year 1: $4MM salary, $11MM signing bonus, full no-movement clause
  • Year 2: $4MM salary, $10MM signing bonus, full no-movement clause
  • Year 3: $4MM salary, $9.75MM signing bonus, full no-movement clause
  • Year 4: $4MM salary, $7.25MM signing bonus, full no-movement clause
  • Year 5: $5MM salary, $6MM signing bonus, full no-movement clause
  • Year 6: $5MM salary, $6MM signing bonus, full no-movement clause
  • Year 7: $5MM salary, $5MM signing bonus, full no-movement clause
  • Year 8: $5MM salary, $5MM signing bonus, full no-movement clause

4:07 p.m.: According to Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman, the Vegas Golden Knights have acquired forward Mitch Marner from the Toronto Maple Leafs. Shortly thereafter, Friedman shared that Marner is expected to sign an eight-year, $96MM deal ($12MM AAV) with the Golden Knights. According to TSN’s Bob McKenzie, Nicolas Roy is the only player headed to the Maple Leafs in the reported deal, making it a one-for-one swap.

Arguably the league’s top available free agent since Artemi Panarin in 2019, the Golden Knights have assured that Marner won’t even reach unrestricted free agency. Marner will join a star-studded roster in Nevada that already includes Jack Eichel, Mark Stone, and Shea Theodore.

Unlike his situation in Toronto, Marner also joins a team that’s entrenched in winning. Without question, the most successful expansion team in NHL history, the Golden Knights have qualified for the postseason in seven out of their eight seasons, reaching three Western Conference Finals, two Stanley Cup Finals, and winning one Stanley Cup.

After the money is squared away, the Golden Knights should have approximately $2MM remaining in salary cap space. Defenseman Alex Pietrangelo is set to miss the entire 2025-26 season, potentially longer, providing Vegas with an added $8.8 million in flexibility. Coupled with Roy’s $3MM salary, the Golden Knights had plenty of flexibility to bring in Marner on a long-term contract.

In Marner, Vegas will add one of the league’s premier playmakers to its already high-end offense. Since debuting for the Maple Leafs in the 2016-17 season, Marner has scored 221 goals and 741 points in 657 games, averaging 20:03 of ice time per night. Aside from his offensive capabilities, Marner is exceptional on the defensive puck, earning a +128 rating with a career 52.7% CorsiFor% at even strength and a 90.1% on-ice save percentage at even strength.

By re-signing Brandon Saad and Reilly Smith over the past two days, and adding Marner this afternoon, the Golden Knights have completely addressed their need for quality wingers before unrestricted free agency has even opened. Furthermore, with $2MM remaining in salary cap space, Vegas has some flexibility to add toward the bottom of their lineup, or to shore up their defensive core with cheaper deals.

Marner’s addition reaffirms the adage of the ’rich becoming richer’. The Golden Knights finished the 2024-25 campaign with the fifth-best goals scored average (3.34), third-best goals against average (2.61), second-best powerplay (28.34%), 13th-best shooting percentage (11.0%), ninth-best CorsiFor% (51.8%), and 11th-best in high-danger scoring chances (51.9%). Interestingly enough, despite being known for his offensive talents, Marner may help Vegas the most on the penalty kill, as they finished this past season ranked 26th with a 75.74% kill rate.

In terms of the salary cap, this deal is only likely to improve for the Golden Knights. Marner will earn 12.57% of Vegas’ available salary cap next year while watching that percentage drop to 10.57% in only two years. Considering that they’ll need a new contract for Eichel after next season, Vegas should be in good shape to retain both for the foreseeable future.

Unfortunately, Marner does carry some baggage when it comes to the Stanley Cup playoffs. Like the Maple Leafs, the Golden Knights are firmly within their competitive window and have been competing for the Stanley Cup since becoming a team less than a decade ago. Although he won’t deal with a similar media landscape in Vegas, Marner will have similar expectations regarding his postseason performances.

In fairness to Marner, he’s been a quality postseason player, just not to his standard. During his time in Toronto, Marner scored 13 goals and 63 points in 70 playoff games, achieving a +9 rating. Although this would be viewed as quality production for most players, it’s a 0.22 drop-off in point-per-game average compared to his regular-season output. Now cemented in Vegas for the prime years of his career, Marner will only have so many more chances to correct the version of himself as a player when hockey becomes as important as it ever can.

Meanwhile, the Maple Leafs have done well by turning nothing into something. The likelihood of Marner staying in Toronto has been known for several weeks, and the Maple Leafs have made sure to get another asset in return rather than lose him for nothing. Unlike Marner, the player they’re acquiring from the Golden Knights has considerable postseason experience.

Over the last four years, Roy has become a valuable third-line center in Vegas. He can play all three forward positions and can move up and down the lineup, making him an extremely versatile forward.

Since becoming a full-time player for the Golden Knights in the 2021-22 season, Roy has scored 57 goals and 141 points in 284 games with a +26 rating, averaging 15:48 of ice time per game. His playoff scoring has declined, with five goals and 15 points in 40 games, but he contributed to the Golden Knights’  Stanley Cup victory in 2023. He should help create a stalwart third line in Toronto next to Max Domi and Scott Laughton.

Photo courtesy of Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images.

Maple Leafs Could File For Tampering If Mitch Marner Signs With Golden Knights

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The Toronto Maple Leafs are just days away from a separation with their superstar right-winger Mitch Marner. Signs have pointed towards Marner testing the free agent market for the bulk of the regular season – but official word of the split came via Chris Johnston of The Athletic in mid-May. It’s been a scramble in the five weeks since, with multiple teams pushing their way into the sweepstakes for a 100-point winger. As usual in big-end moves, the Vegas Golden Knights have made themselves front-and-center in discussions – and even gone as far as discussing a trade to acquire Marner’s negotiation rights. But draft day rumors have revealed that, should Vegas sign Marner right away on July 1st without a trade, the Maple Leafs are prepared to file a tampering charge against the Golden Knights, per Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman on the latest 32 Thoughts Podcast.

Friedman emphasized repeatedly that despite these rumors, there is no present evidence of any tampering in Vegas. He also added that charges of tampering would likely go away should the two sides complete a trade before July. But teams are recently acutely sensitive to evidence of tampering, and Friedman adds that the NHL has recently been eyeing opportunities to set examples of how player rights should be managed and respected.

Tampering has been a hot topic in the NHL over the last year. The NHL included a reminder of tampering rules in the 2024-25 season’s first round of GM meetings in November. Specifically, Deputy Commissioner Bill Daly reiterated that teams do not have the power to negotiate or agree to new deals with pending-free agents until noon ET on July 1st, unless provided express permission from the rightsholder.

Marner isn’t the only player with tampering concerns swirling around. The Maple Leafs were also the subject of a tampering scare over the last few weeks, after popular podcaster Paul Bissonnette shared that Toronto had already agreed to a deal with Brad Marchand on the Spittin Chiclets podcast — though it appeared those claims were ultimately debunked. The NHL also investigated possible tampering charges against the New Jersey Devils, Seattle Kraken, San Jose Sharks, and Chicago Blackhawks last summer – for their potentially premature signings of Brett Pesce, Brandon Montour, Tyler Toffoli, and Tyler Bertuzzi respectively. The Ottawa Senators also alleged “soft tampering” against the New York Rangers for their pursuit of Brady Tkachuk in December.

On a Hockey Night in Canada broadcast from December, Friedman listed out some of the potential penalties for teams caught tampering (captured here by @PuckReportNHL on Twitter). At a team level, the possible punishments included a fine of up to $5MM, termination of contracts signed, forfeiture of draft picks, and rewarding of confiscated draft picks or cash to the effected club. Players can also be penalized with a $1MM fine, suspension, or expulsion from the league.

For a player like Marner, the thought of tampering charges will ring loud. He is headed for a possible record-breaking, or record-tying, contract this summer after netting 102 points in 81 games this season. He’s among the league’s best wingers – and will be making the first move of his nine-year career with a change of teams this summer. If the NHL is looking for an example to set, closely monitoring free agent negotiations at this scale would be a strong place to start.

These concerns could be mitigated by a swap of assets for Marner’s negotiating rights, which would allow Vegas to sign Marner ahead of July 1st while also providing compensation back to the Maple Leafs. Should Vegas have any concerns, that move may be a nice safeguard to ensure they can land another lineup star with no barriers. Then again, with no clear evidence of tampering, rumors or concerns spreading around NHL circles will be no more than that, until a team is proven guilty.

Golden Knights, Maple Leafs Discussing Mitch Marner Trade

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According to Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman, the Vegas Golden Knights and Toronto Maple Leafs are in active negotiations for a sign-and-trade deal that would see Mitch Marner end up in Nevada. Friedman followed up on the initial report, stating that forward Nicolas Roy is expected to be part of the return to Toronto if a deal is finalized. A few moments later, TSN’s Bruce Garrioch reported that the Maple Leafs requested defenseman Nicolas Hague in the return as well.

Although sign-and-trades of this caliber are exceptionally rare, the Golden Knights’ motivation to make the move now, instead of pursuing Marner for nothing in a few days, is likely twofold. Acquiring him with a new contract in place now eliminates all competition for his services, and would allow Vegas to add an eighth year to his contract via Toronto.

Besides the magnitude of the hypothetical trade, the news comes with little surprise. The Golden Knights are no stranger to making sizeable additions to the roster and have been linked to Marner by various outlets for several weeks.

Depending on the dollar amount for Marner’s next deal, Vegas should be able to get a deal done rather comfortably. Assuming Roy is in the trade, the Golden Knights would have approximately $8.6MM available in cap space, with an additional $8.8MM available if defenseman Alex Pietrangelo is headed for the long-term injured reserve.

Adding Marner to a forward core that already includes Jack Eichel and Mark Stone would be enough to create one of the most dynamic offenses in the league. Eichel was the team’s leader in points this past season, scoring 28 goals and 94 points in 77 games. Meanwhile, Marner recently concluded the best individual season of his career, scoring 27 goals and 102 points in 81 contests with a +18 rating.

Despite not having a 100-point scorer in their brief team history, Vegas was still able to finish with the league’s fifth-best offense this season, averaging 3.34 goals per game. Unfortunately, their defense may suffer as a result of the trade.

Assuming Pietrangelo is headed for the LTIR, and Hague is included in the trade, that leaves the Golden Knights in the unenviable position of giving consistent minutes to Ben Hutton and Kaedan Korczak throughout the 2025-26 campaign, with few dollars to improve. They may find better options on the trade market, but it’ll be challenging with Marner presumably anchoring their salary cap table.

According to Friedman, Vegas views their situation similarly when it comes to their defensive core. The insider for Sportsnet indicated earlier that the Golden Knights attempted to acquire defenseman Rasmus Andersson from the Calgary Flames earlier this week, though nothing worthwhile came to fruition.

Meanwhile, while only knowing a few of the reported names hypothetically headed to Toronto, Roy would be a quality addition for the Maple Leafs. Although he’s best used as a third-line center, Roy would bring a ton of versatility to Toronto’s forward with the ability to play up and down a lineup.

He’s been a consistent secondary scorer for the Golden Knights over the past four years, scoring 57 goals and 141 points in 284 games with a +26 rating, averaging 15:48 of ice time per night while maintaining a 47.9% success rate in the faceoff dot. Additionally, he’s a capable presence in the playoffs, scoring three goals and 11 points in 22 postseason contests during Vegas’ run to a Stanley Cup title in 2023.

Moving to the blue line, Hague is a known commodity in the league and has generated plenty of interest this summer. Utilizing a similar playstyle to Jake McCabe, Hague is a quality top-four option who can eat meaningful minutes. Although he’s not much of a point producer, Hague is an incredibly physical defenseman and stalwart in the defensive zone, managing a 90.9% on-ice save percentage in 364 games as a Golden Knight.

Trade Notes: Dobson, Marner, Karlsson, McBain

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The opening day of the 2025 NHL Draft got off to a quick start earlier today when the New York Islanders traded defenseman Noah Dobson to the Montreal Canadiens for Emil Heineman and a pair of first-round picks. If the Islanders’ old General Manager, Lou Lamoriello, had it his way, Dobson would have already been wearing a different Canadian team’s uniform.

According to Arthur Staple, formerly of The Athletic, Lamoriello attempted to package Dobson with other pieces at last season’s trade deadline to acquire forward Mitch Marner from the Toronto Maple Leafs. Ultimately, likely due to Toronto’s disapproval at the time, no trade materialized between the two teams.

It stands to reason that the Islanders may have known Dobson was out of their price range on a long-term extension for some time, and the new administration faced similar issues as the last. At any rate, the Islanders now have approximately $21MM in cap space entering the offseason without a big-ticket extension on their horizon.

Other trade notes:

  • It’s a well-known fact that the Vegas Golden Knights are looking to trim their salary cap table so they can put together a legitimate pursuit for Marner. Still, it doesn’t appear that long-time forward William Karlsson will be a part of that exodus, as David Pagnotta of The Fourth Period reported that there’s little activity on the Karlsson trade front. The 11-year veteran is coming off an injury-riddled season and has two years left until he reaches unrestricted free agency, making him a difficult sell to other organizations.
  • According to Josh Yohe of The Athletic, the Pittsburgh Penguins are looking to capitalize on the lack of progress in contract negotiations between the Utah Mammoth and forward Jack McBain. Yohe indicated that McBain would be an ideal fit for the Penguins’ hole at third-line center, and his physicality and tertiary scoring ability are of great intrigue to General Manager Kyle Dubas.

Pacific Notes: Elias Pettersson, Marner, Eklund

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While the trade rumors don’t seem to subside related to the Vancouver Canucks’ forward Elias Pettersson, The Athletic’s Pierre LeBrun doesn’t believe the star forward will be dealt.

Rumors surrounding Petterson have been circulating since the trade deadline. At that time, the team was struggling, and Pettersson and J.T. Miller were at the forefront of trade speculation. While Miller was eventually dealt to the New York Rangers, Pettersson remained with the franchise that drafted him fifth overall in the 2017 NHL Draft. Despite a difficult 2024-25 season, Pettersson is still just 26 years old and already has five seasons with 27 or more goals to his name, and is two seasons removed from a 102-point campaign.

If the team does intend to move Petterson, they’ll have to do so before his full no-move clause kicks in July 1.

Elsewhere in the Pacific:

  • The Athletic’s Chris Johnston noted on TSN 1050 that he believes the San Jose Sharks will make a run at pending free agent star Mitch Marner. While the Sharks have more than enough cap space to make the signing, with over $40 million available according to PuckPedia, and boast young talent like Macklin Celebrini and Will Smith, Johnston noted that he doesn’t view San Jose as a great fit for Marner. As Johnston said, “I would be surprised if he went to a place coming off a rebuild. I think he’s going to go to one of the better teams in the league.”
  • Sharks GM Mike Grier said he is not focused on signing winger William Eklund to an extension and is instead concerned with Eklund’s health above all else, per Curtis Pashelka of The Mercury News. Eklund is eligible to sign a contract extension as of July 1st, and Grier previously seemed committed to getting a deal done, noting that he had met with Eklund’s agent to get an early sense of what the asking price might be. Eklund took his game to the next level last season, posting career highs in goals (17), assists (41), and points (58). However, at the World Championships, he was involved in a scary incident when he was cut on the wrist by a skate. Although he was reported to be in stable condition afterward, the long-term effects remain uncertain.

Ducks Interested In Tavares, Boeser As Marner Backup

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While the Anaheim Ducks may be prepared to offer pending free agent Mitch Marner a record-breaking offer, the team is interested in several other additions if Marner signs elsewhere. This list includes veterans John Tavares and Brock Boeser, per The Fourth Period.

Anaheim holds more than $30MM in cap space (per PuckPedia), and ownership recently discussed the desire to build a Stanley Cup-caliber team as soon as possible, setting off speculation that they’ll aggressively pursue Marner. Yet with only one winner in that sweepstakes, the Ducks are also eyeing pending free agents like Tavares and Boeser to bolster their offense.

While Marner appears almost certain to leave Toronto, Tavares remains optimistic about re-signing with the Leafs. Still, at 36, he may view Anaheim’s cap-rich, rebuilding opportunity as perhaps his final shot at a big payday. After posting 38 goals last season (his most since the 2018-19 season), Tavares proved he still has a lot left in the tank. Although his next contract won’t match his current $11MM AAV, Tavares could still land a significant multi‑year deal if he tests the open market.

Anaheim is also among a host of teams reportedly tied to Boeser. As David Pagnotta of the Fourth Period reported, Boeser is a “longshot” to return to Vancouver, setting the stage for the 28-year-old sniper to hit the open market. While the interest in Boeser’s services appears lengthy, the type of deal he’ll command is a bit murkier than other pending free agents. Unlike Tavares, Boeser didn’t set the world on fire in his contract year. His goal total dropped from 40 during the 2023-24 season to just 25 last season. His points also fell by 23, and his plus/minus dropped from plus-23 to minus-25 year over year. Still, Boeser posted his sixth career season with at least 23 goals and remains on the right side of 30. The limited options in this free agent class also work to his advantage.

Heeding the turnaround desire from ownership, the Ducks have already had a busy offseason, including the hire of Joel Quenneville as head coach, trading for veteran forward Chris Kreider, and resigning pending restricted free agent Nikita Nesterenko. The team also faces a tough decision regarding goalie John Gibson, who has long been rumored to be on the trade block. Through it all, it’s expected that the Ducks will seek to add offensive firepower in free agency, with Tavares and/or Boeser potentially serving as solid backup options if they miss out on Marner.

UFA Notes: Marner, Tavares, Toninato, Del Gaizo

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As the top pending unrestricted free agent, winger Mitch Marner will have a chance to choose between a bunch of contract options.  According to Pierre LeBrun in his latest post for The Athletic (subscription link), a couple of teams believe that Marner is considering signing just a two-year deal this summer with the hopes of getting a long-term contract in place in 2027 when the Upper Limit of the salary cap is projected to be around $113MM at that time.  The value of the two-year pact would still likely surpass that of Mikko Rantanen’s AAV ($12MM) with Dallas, the new benchmark for a contract given to a winger.  The 28-year-old had 27 goals and 75 assists in 81 games this season for the Maple Leafs while adding 13 points in 13 playoff contests.

Other news regarding players set to hit the open market next month:

  • The Maple Leafs and center John Tavares are still not close on a new contract. Tavares has made it known that his desire is to remain with Toronto while the Leafs are hoping that he’ll leave some money on the table to do so.  However, he’s the top middleman in a thinning UFA group at that position and is coming off a 38-goal, 74-point season.  Realistically, he could push for $7.5MM or more on a multi-year deal if he gets to July 1st.  Speculatively, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Toronto offering a long-term deal at a lower rate per season to maximize their cap flexibility this summer.
  • Pending UFA center Dominic Toninato has dropped his agent Neil Sheehy, relays Murat Ates of The Athletic (subscription link). Instead of hiring a new one, he plans to represent himself in negotiations this summer.  The 31-year-old has spent the last five seasons with the Jets although most of his playing time has come with AHL Manitoba.  Toninato was held off the scoresheet in five games with Winnipeg this season while he had 18 goals and 18 assists with the Moose.  He’s a strong candidate to sign another two-way pact with the team before much longer.
  • Defenseman Marc Del Gaizo won’t be returning to the Predators next season, reports Lower Broad Hockey’s Nick Kieser (Twitter link). The 25-year-old is eligible to become a Group Six free agent next month and it appears that he’ll test the market instead of re-signing.  Del Gaizo played in 44 games with Nashville this season, picking up nine points, 53 blocks, and 71 hits while averaging 16:45 per game.  He also suited up in 30 games with AHL Milwaukee, notching eight goals and four assists after putting up at least 30 points at that level the previous two years.

Snapshots: Nugent-Hopkins, Malkin, Marner

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Edmonton Oilers centerman Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is expected to stick in the lineup for Game 6 despite missing Monday’s practice, head coach Kris Knoblauch told Daniel Nugent-Bowman of The Athletic. His off-day will instead be chalked up to rest, after Nugent-Hopkins appeared in 20 minutes of action in Game 5.

Nugent-Hopkins appeared in 24 minutes of ice time and scored two points in Edmonton’s 5-4 win over Florida in Game 4. He ranks third on the Oilers’ offense in ice time (19:44) and postseason scoring (20 points in 21 games) behind only Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. It’s the expected pecking order, but Nugent-Hopkins’ role has still been a crucial part of Edmonton’s postseason success. They’ll rest assured knowing he’s expected to appear in a must-win game on Tuesday.

Other notes from around the league:

  • Retirement winds are beginning to blow around Pittsburgh Penguins legend Evgeni Malkin. It remains unclear exactly when the Russian forward is expecting to retire, though sources around the team say Pittsburgh is unlikely to offer him a new contract next summer, per Josh Yohe of The Athletic. Malkin will enter unrestricted free agency after the 2025-26 season after riding out a four-year, $24.4MM contract. He posted the lowest scoring pace of his career this season, with 50 points in 68 games equating to 0.74 points-per-game. That mark surpassed his previous career-low of 0.82 set last season, when he scored 27 goals and 67 points in 82 games. Those numbers are still mighty impressive, and could earn Malkin a few more years even as he slows down. He could also be a candidate to leave the NHL with a few good years left, and finish his playing career in Russia’s KHL. Mettalurg Magnitogorsk continue to hold Malkin’s KHL rights. He previously appeared in 169 games and scored 156 points with the club.
  • Top free agent Mitch Marner may take his time deciding on a new landing spot when the market opens on July 1st, Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman shared on his latest 32 Thoughts podcast. Friedman adds that Marner could have plans to establish meetings throughout multiple cities before he signs his next deal. Negotiations for Marner’s last contract – a six-year, $65.41MM deal signed in 2019 – notoriously dragged on through September. He posted multiple career-years on the deal, including breaking the century mark for the first time this season with 102 points in 81 games. Marner is likely to rival records with a lengthy and expensive deal this season. Taking time to ensure it’s with the right fit will be a helpful bit of due diligence.

Blue Jackets Expected To Pursue Mitch Marner

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With more than $40MM to spend and only a few notable holes to fill on the roster, the Columbus Blue Jackets will have difficulty being outspent on players this summer. Keeping that in mind, Aaron Portzline of The Athletic expects General Manager Don Waddell to be very involved in Mitch Marner’s market.

Unfortunately, the Blue Jackets’ ability to spend won’t alienate all of their competition this offseason, as a report from yesterday indicated the Anaheim Ducks are contemplating a record-breaking offer for Marner’s services. Still, Columbus has even more financial flexibility than Anaheim, making their pitch the most worthwhile part.

In his article, Portzline hinted at the fact that the Blue Jackets have pursued Marner before. After the 2019 Stanley Cup playoffs, when the Blue Jackets eliminated the Presidents’ Trophy-winning Tampa Bay Lightning in the opening round, the team’s top two talents, Artemi Panarin and Sergei Bobrovsky, departed via free agency.

Columbus’s General Manager at the time, Jarmo Kekäläinen, immediately contacted the Toronto Maple Leafs when Marner’s entry-level contract expired that same summer. Portzline doesn’t believe the Blue Jackets’ trade interest got to the point of exchanging names, as Marner signed a six-year, $65.41MM contract closer to training camp.

If Columbus ultimately signs Marner, they’ll have two of the most defensively responsible wingers in the league. Marner has finished in the top 10 of Selke Trophy voting in three out of the past five years, while Kirill Marchenko finished with a higher CorsiFor% and on-ice save percentage compared to Marner this season at even strength.

Bringing in Marner would also allow the Blue Jackets to bring in another star talent since the tragic death of Johnny Gaudreau on August 29th of last summer. Columbus embarked on a remarkably competitive season in honor of their late teammate, and adding a player of Marner’s talent would certainly boost the team’s morale level.

Unlike some of the other teams with an abundance of cap space this summer, the Blue Jackets would allow Marner to stay on a competitive roster, while also having a much smaller media presence compared to Toronto.

Ultimately, only time will tell what crest Marner will wear on his jersey next season. He won’t have a shortage of suitors, as several teams outside of Anaheim and Columbus have the available capital to make a run at his services.

Ducks May Offer Record-Breaking AAV For Mitch Marner

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Many have speculated that the Ducks will be a major player in the Mitch Marner sweepstakes. The All-Star winger is nearly guaranteed to hit the open market on July 1, and Anaheim has the third-most cap space in the league early in the offseason, according to PuckPedia.

That flexibility, plus a mandate from ownership to contend for a playoff spot next season, means they could offer Marner the most lucrative seven-year offer of any club this summer. James Mirtle of The Athletic reports Monday they’re considering offering him an AAV that would push north of the $14MM mark, making him the league’s highest-paid player starting next season.

Whether Marner is considering teams that aren’t currently established playoff contenders remains to be seen. Still, it’s hard to imagine any team, aside from the Blue Jackets and their $40.4MM in cap space, being willing to enter that range. Even an offer matching, not exceeding, Oilers superstar Leon Draisaitl’s league-high $14MM cap hit comes in well north of his projected market value of just a shade under $13MM, according to AFP Analytics.

There will naturally be sticker shock when it comes to many deals this summer, with an 8.5% increase in the salary cap’s Upper Limit from $88MM to $95.5MM. Draisaitl’s mega-extension, which costs 14.66% of the cap when it starts next season, would be equivalent to a $12.9MM AAV had it gone into effect last year.

Any conversation about Marner pushing into the $14MM tier per season will result in direct comparisons between him and Draisaitl, especially with the latter’s extension being signed under a year ago and kicking in at the same time Marner’s next deal will. That’s where things will get hairy for Anaheim regarding public perception of the contract, even if acquiring a dynamic offensive threat of Marner’s caliber is a crucial long-term step in helping them return to relevance.

Draisaitl is one year Marner’s senior and had a two-year head start on him in beginning his NHL career, but the former wasn’t immediately thrust into top-six minutes like Marner was. Even still, Draisaitl’s career points per game rate of 1.21 dwarfs that of Marner’s 1.13.

The discrepancy between the two increases when putting them on equal footing regarding sample size. Draisaitl’s points-per-game rate increases to 1.32 from the beginning of Marner’s career in 2016-17. Over the past three seasons, Draisaitl has operated at a 120-point pace per 82 games compared to Marner’s 102.

The soon-to-be-former Maple Leafs winger has historically been a far more valuable player defensively than Draisaitl, but that changed this season, at least in terms of public perception. Draisaitl came one place ahead of Marner in Selke Trophy voting after posting career-best possession numbers (58.8 CF%, 61.2 xGF%) at even strength. While playoff production has far less impact on contract value, Draisaitl is in a different tier, with a 1.49 career points per game rate in the postseason compared to Marner’s 0.9.

Combine all that with Draisaitl playing a more traditionally valuable position, and it’s hard to imagine many other teams willing to match a $14MM offer for Marner if the Ducks make it, even if they technically have the resources to do so. Suppose he enters July 1 open-minded about his next destination. That discrepancy between Anaheim’s offer and whatever the second-best one is for him financially could be enough to tip the scales in the Ducks’ favor.

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