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Stretch Run Storylines: Buffalo Sabres

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As things stand, the NHL is planning to have games resume at some point over the coming weeks.  Assuming the regular season continues, there will be plenty of things to watch for over the stretch run.  Over the coming weeks, PHR will examine the top stretch run storylines for each team.  We continue our look at the Atlantic Division with Buffalo.

The Buffalo Sabres had high hopes the team would make that next step this offseason and the team did start strong once again with Jack Eichel leading the way. However, once again, the Sabres struggled midway through the season and saw them drop in the standings and out of the playoff race. The team in some ways is quite young, but with no playoff appearances since the 2010-11 season, there is quite a bit of pressure on the team to figure things out and get back to winning.

Lack Of Long-Term Deals

One of the most interesting things about the Sabres is that their future is quite open as Buffalo has locked up just five players past the 2020-21 season and will have to start looking at locking up some of their talent long-term at some point down the road. The biggest problem for Sabres’ management is that they have made some poor decisions over the years with long-term deals handed out to Kyle Okposo and more recently Jeff Skinner, both of which currently look like questionable deals.

The team should gain quite a bit of cap space this summer with a number of players about to hit unrestricted free agency, including Wayne Simmonds, Michael Frolik, Jimmy Vesey, Zemgus Girgensons, Johan Larsson, Matt Hunwick and Vladimir Sobotka. While the franchise may bring one or two of them back, it does free up some cap room to add some talent. The team also have a number of restricted free agents, who could be eligible for long-term deals, including Sam Reinhart, Victor Olofsson, Dominik Kahun, Brandon Montour and Linus Ullmark. The question is whether Buffalo is ready to lock some of these players up.

Goaltending Questions

The Sabres thought they solved their goaltending issues a couple of years ago when they signed Carter Hutton to a three-year deal. However, that experiment hasn’t gone well either. The goaltender has struggled in a starting role, struggling even more this year than in his first season. This year in 31 appearances, the 34-year-old has a 3.18 GAA and .898 save percentage and finally the Sabres decided to split the starts between Carter and Ullmark.

Ullmark is a lock to return, but the question is what to do with Carter. Do they want to give him one more chance or perhaps buy out his final year. Is Ullmark, who did show significant improvement this season (2.69 GAA, .915 save percentage in 34 appearances), ready for a starting role? Should the team go out and sign one of the many big-named unrestricted free agent goalies this offseason? Lots of questions, but the team must make a decision down the road to fix those woes.

Development Of Youth

The Buffalo Sabres now need their youth to take that next step in their development. The team has finally seen Eichel take that next step into both a leader on and off the ice, which is something the Sabres needed desperately. Olofsson proved extremely valuable in his rookie campaign with 20 goals and 42 points in 54 games, but dealt with some injuries that prevented him from making an ever bigger impact on the ice.

However, what the Sabres need is for more of their young talent to take that next step. Casey Mittelstadt struggled even more in his second season with just four goals and nine points in 313 games and was sent to Rochester to work on his confidence. Promising youngster Tage Thompson also spent the season with the Americans of the AHL to work on his game and was injured quite a bit. Defensive acquisition Henri Jokiharju struggled in his first season as well.

What the team needs is for some of their young players to take that next step like Eichel. Buffalo needs more from Rasmus Dahlin, the first-overall pick in 2018, and they must successfully develop prospect Dylan Cozens if/when he makes the team next year. Others need to step up as well.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

West Notes: Flames, Boucher, Little

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Some teams are using this pause in the schedule to take care of some contracts but the Flames won’t be among those.  After speaking with GM Brad Treliving, TSN’s Jermain Franklin reports (video link) that Calgary won’t be making any decisions with regards on their pending unrestricted free agents (highlighted by defensemen T.J. Brodie and Travis Hamonic) as well as whether or not to remove the interim tag from Geoff Ward until the league presents a clear path on when and how the season will resume.  At this stage, it’s hard to see a concrete timeline put in place anytime soon so this may linger for a while yet.

More from the Western Conference:

  • From the same video, Franklin notes that Flames goalie David Rittich was dealing with an elbow injury during the season half of the season and had treatment on it before returning home. It’s reasonable to suggest that the issue affected his performance as from February 1st to the suspension of the schedule, he had just a .885 SV% in 11 games after posting a .913 mark before that point.
  • Several European teams have expressed an interest in signing Canucks pending restricted free agent Reid Boucher, reports TSN 1040’s Rick Dhaliwal (Twitter link). However, at this time, the winger intends to remain in North America.  Boucher spent the entire season with AHL Utica and led the Comets in scoring with 33 goals and 34 assists in 53 games.  His 67 points were second to only Sam Anas (Minnesota) in the league while his 1.26 point per game led all AHL players.
  • Jets center Bryan Little could return if play resumes on the 2019-20 season, notes NHL.com’s Tim Campbell. He was ruled out for the rest of the year back in February as he continues to recover from surgery to repair a perforated eardrum but with the extended time off, he now could be available to return.  The veteran would certainly be a welcome addition to Winnipeg’s lineup and could give them a boost offensively with them in a tight battle for a playoff spot.  He has five points in seven games this season and came into the year having surpassed the 40-point mark in six straight seasons.

Bob Boughner Has The Upper Hand To Remain As Sharks Head Coach

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While the Sharks haven’t entirely committed to removing the interim tag from head coach Bob Boughner, it certainly seems as if they’re leaning in that direction.  Speaking on a recent conference call, GM Doug Wilson told reporters, including Curtis Pashelka of The Mercury News that Boughner currently has the upper hand in the process but that they intend to do a thorough review once the season officially comes to an end.

Boughner was named as the interim bench boss back in December, taking over from Peter DeBoer (who took over as the head coach in Vegas barely a month later).  While San Jose sits at the bottom of the standings in the West (they have a 14-20-3 record under Boughner after being 15-16-2 under DeBoer), Wilson felt there was some progress made in the second half of the year:

I was pleased to see some of the overall play improve over the last half of the year. There were times more often than not that we were playing the game the right way.

Of course, Boughner’s performance behind the bench this season isn’t the only reason that he is the frontrunner to get the job on a full-time basis.  He spent two years as an assistant with the team (2015-16 and 2016-17) before joining Florida as their head coach and a good chunk of the core is still there and that familiarity certainly doesn’t hurt.

If he does eventually have the interim tag removed, a quick turnaround is going to be expected.  The Sharks don’t have much in the way of salary cap flexibility to change their roster so the majority of their core will likely return.

Having fewer top players go down with injuries will certainly help in that regard and Wilson did have some positive news on that front.  Center Tomas Hertl is well ahead of schedule in his recovery from knee surgery while defenseman Erik Karlsson (thumb) and center Logan Couture (concussion) are close to being fully healthy and could return if the season resumes at some point over the coming weeks and months.

Byfuglien Saga Reaching Conclusion

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In times like these it is easy to forget about those NHL transactional situations that were ongoing when the league decided to pause their season, but even though no games are being played there is work being done to conclude them. One such situation revolved around the Winnipeg Jets and Dustin Byfuglien, which included all the markings of a good drama—a lack of communication, heaps of frustration and the withholding of large sums of money.

Byfuglien, 35, seemed like he was leaning towards retirement at one point last offseason, but when he didn’t go that route and instead simply failed to report to Jets’ training camp he was eventually suspended by the team without pay. The veteran defenseman opted for ankle surgery in October without the team’s involvement, only complicating things.

For months now there has been reporting suggesting that the two sides were getting closer to a settlement on the dispute over his remaining salary, but nothing has been officially announced from either side. Last night on TSN’s Insider Trading, Darren Dreger explained that it all may be coming to a head soon:

It is nearing an end, but obviously given current events it’s not top priority for all involved. What I know is that the National Hockey League is scheduled to discuss the situation with the Winnipeg Jets in the very near future. Now, the Players’ Association, the league, the player and the Winnipeg Jets are all aligned in the termination agreement, but it hasn’t been executed yet and because of that the Winnipeg Jets aren’t in a position to announce. The detail work between the league and Winnipeg Jets is expected to ironed out in the near future.

While it’s unclear what kind of an agreement will be executed in terms of payment, it will mark the end of Byfuglien’s tenure in Winnipeg. Whether he plays NHL hockey again in the future will be up to him, but you can bet that there will at least be some lukewarm interest should he hit unrestricted free agency. To be clear, Byfuglien would not be eligible for the 2019-20 playoffs with a new team regardless of when they happen.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Montreal Canadiens Extend Laurent Dauphin

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The Montreal Canadiens will be bringing back another one of their minor league forwards, agreeing to a one-year, two-way contract extension with Laurent Dauphin. The deal will carry a salary of $700K in the NHL, $175K in the AHL and a $200K guarantee. Dauphin was scheduled to become a Group VI unrestricted free agent at the end of the season after playing in just 35 NHL games through his first several professional seasons.

Dauphin, 25, was originally selected in the second round of the 2013 draft, but never did really become the offensive weapon in the pros that he was at the junior level. After a number of years in the Arizona Coyotes minor league system, peppered with 35 NHL games across four different seasons and a trade to the Chicago Blackhawks that lasted just six months before he was returned, Dauphin found himself on the move last February to the Nashville Predators organization.

Even with his new home, there wasn’t much of an NHL opportunity, so Dauphin found himself on the move again a few months ago. He arrived in his native Quebec and ended up suiting up for 25 games with the Laval Rocket, scoring 15 points. He apparently has done enough to prove he deserves another shot next season, though it’s still unlikely he ever becomes an impact player in the NHL.

Potential Compliance Buyout Candidates: Part I

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As the current Coronavirus crisis wears on, it seems more and more likely that the NHL will not return to action soon and when play resumes, it will almost certainly not be the full remaining regular season schedule. That lost revenue is expected to impact the 2020-21 salary cap, perhaps even keeping the current $81.5MM upper limit in place. Given that teams expected an increase, initially projected to be between $84-88.2MM, this stagnation could have a harsh impact on a number of clubs’ cap situations. As such, many expect that compliance buyouts will return in some form or fashion to ease that pain. These buyouts, which do not count against the salary cap, would allow for teams to open up space that they otherwise expected from a cap increase.

Here is a rundown of the top compliance buyout candidates for the first third of NHL teams:

Anaheim Ducks: Adam Henrique

– The first team on the list is a tough call. Henrique has had a good season and the Ducks are not in significant cap trouble. However, with a long list of promising forward prospects and a defense that needs work, the team could opt to move on from the veteran forward and to create roster space and cap flexibility. Henrique, 30, is signed for four more years at $5.825MM.

Arizona Coyotes: Phil Kessel

– The Coyotes are in one of the worst positions in the league in terms of cap space, so the team would have to use a compliance buyout if the opportunity is offered to them. Kessel has been a relative bust in his first season with the ‘Yotes and is signed for two more years at $6.8MM. He has the potential to improve in year two, but Arizona may not have the luxury of taking the chance. The added cap space would be a major relief for the team.

Boston Bruins: John Moore

– Given the Bruins’ depth on defense in both veteran assets and budding prospects as well as Moore’s relegation to a backup role on the Boston blue line, he has become an expendable asset, especially if both Zdeno Chara and Torey Krug are back next season. Moore is signed longer than any current Bruins defenseman with three years and $8.25MM remaining, but the team’s commitment to him seems less than any of his fellow blue liners.

Buffalo Sabres: Kyle Okposo

– Unfortunately for the Sabres, the Okposo signing in 2016 has never panned out. His production dropped from 64 points with the New York Islanders in 2015-16 to just 45 points in his first year in Buffalo and that total has gone down in every year since. Okposo was on pace for just 24 points this year and may not even reach that mark. The Sabres would be quick to part ways with Okposo, who has three years at $6MM annually left on his contract, taking up valuable cap space that the team needs to use to improve the rest of their roster.

Calgary Flames: Milan Lucic

– Even with the salary being retained by the Edmonton Oilers on Lucic’s contract, his $5.25MM cap hit is still a pain for the Flames. The veteran power forward is not going to score 20+ goals or 50+ points in a season ever again and Calgary could do more with the added cap space over the next three years.

Carolina Hurricanes: Jake Gardiner

– For whatever reason, the Gardiner signing simply has not worked out as the Hurricanes had hoped. Gardiner, who was signed late last summer at a relative discount, has been a fine addition, but hasn’t been the point producer and power play ace that Carolina had hoped for. Following the deadline addition of Brady Skjei to arguably the deepest blue line in the NHL already, Gardiner and his remaining three years and $12.15MM are expendable.

Chicago Blackhawks: Brent Seabrook

– One of the more obvious choices on this list, Seabrook’s contract may the worst in the NHL right now. The 34-year-old has four years left at $6.875MM AAV on an eight-year, $55MM deal signed back in 2015. Over the term of the contract, Seabrook has declined rapidly and is a shell of his former self, regardless of health. The cap-strapped Blackhawks would not think twice about moving on.

Colorado Avalanche: Erik Johnson

– Johnson is a well-liked and well-respected long-time member of the Avalanche. However, as time has gone on the team has surrounded him with better, younger, and more affordable blue line options. As valuable as Johnson’s experience and leadership may be, he is an expendable piece without a clear future role. Signed through 2022-23 at a $6MM cap hit, Johnson is an expensive piece to keep around just for the intangibles and the Avs could look to use this opportunity to clear some space for some anticipated big game hunting this off-season.

Columbus Blue Jackets: Alexander Wennberg

– Blue Jackets fans have been calling for Wennberg’s head for years now and may finally get their wish. The once-promising young forward turned a 59-point 2016-17 season into a six-year, $29.4MM contract and then proceeded to regress immensely over the past few seasons instead of continuing to improve as expected. With another three years left at $4.9MM per, Wennberg doesn’t seem likely to get back to a level of play that would warrant his current cap hit and Columbus could move on, even from a 25-year-old homegrown product.

Dallas Stars: Andrew Cogliano

– The Stars are a team with numerous big names and long contracts, but their most inefficient name might just be Cogliano. Rather than using a buyout to move a heavy cap hit, Dallas could opt to trim the fat by removing a player that hasn’t been a good fit. Cogliano has showed that his six points in 32 games last season with the Stars following a trade from Anaheim was not a fluke; he followed it up with 14 points through 68 games this year. Expecting Cogliano to get back to 30+ point form in 2020-21 in his final year at $3.25MM seems hopeful at best and Dallas could use that space elsewhere with some lineup holes to fill this summer.

Stay tuned for Part II coming soon.

Micheal Ferland Experiencing No Concussion Symptoms

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Though players all around the league would obviously like to get back on the ice and start competing for the Stanley Cup once again, there is one silver lining in this current season suspension. Injured players, like Micheal Ferland of the Vancouver Canucks, have received even more time to rest and recuperate from their ailments. Ferland, who has suffered multiple concussions and was limited to just 14 games this season, is back home according to his agent who told Rick Dhaliwal of TSN that the power forward is experiencing “zero symptoms.”

The 27-year old Ferland signed a four-year, $14MM deal with the Canucks last summer to be part of their new identity as a fast, physical team. Joining other power forwards like J.T. Miller, Jake Virtanen and Antoine Roussell upfront, Ferland gave the Canucks a reliable 40-point winger who could move up and down the lineup depending on the situation. Unfortunately, his health has been completely unreliable for the team, after suffering the third (known) concussion of his career in early November. He would return just over a month later but lasted all of 13 minutes over two games before he was taken out with symptoms again. Another try at the AHL level in February would last just a single period before the symptoms came back, with concern growing for his future at every turn.

At this point, all anyone can do is hope that Ferland’s day-to-day life can return to normal. It’s not clear how the rest of his hockey-playing career will go, but there is still three years and $9.5MM left on his contract.

Evening Notes: Rossi, Flyers, Tryamkin, Oilers

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Marco Rossi won’t have to wait very long to hear his name called once things get underway at the 2020 NHL Draft.  The center led the OHL in scoring this season with 120 points in 56 games which is quite impressive for anyone, let alone a draft-eligible player.  If he doesn’t stick with whichever NHL team drafts him though, don’t expect him to return to junior hockey.  He told Jean-Francois Plante of Le Droit that if he isn’t in the NHL, his plan is to go back overseas and play in a professional league instead; 67’s head coach Andre Tourigny told Plante that the team wouldn’t block him from trying to do so.  The Austrian came up through the ranks in Switzerland before joining OHL Ottawa and could opt to play there once again.

Elsewhere around the hockey world:

  • While some teams are using this layoff to get a head start on contract discussions, that doesn’t appear to be the case in Philadelphia. Flyers GM Chuck Fletcher told Jordan Hall of NBC Sports Philadelphia that he hasn’t started any talks about a new deal with any of their pending free agents.  Among the notable unrestricted free agents on their roster are goalie Brian Elliott, defenseman Justin Braun, and center Derek Grant while forwards Oskar Lindblom and Nolan Patrick, who have had their seasons cut short to respective health concerns, headline their list of restricted free agents.
  • With the KHL season now over, talks between the Canucks and defenseman Nikita Tryamkin have picked up, reports Postmedia’s Ben Kuzma. The 25-year-old spent parts of two seasons in Vancouver before returning to Russia for the last three seasons.  However, Tryamkin is looking to return to Vancouver for the 2020-21 campaign but his agent Todd Diamond acknowledged that the uncertainty surrounding next year’s salary cap is also likely to play a role in any contract talks.
  • If play resumes, the Oilers should have a pair of players back in their lineup. Head coach Dave Tippett told reporters, including Daniel Nugent-Bowman of The Athletic (Twitter link) that defenseman Mike Green (knee) and winger Joakim Nygard (upper body) have both recovered from their respective injuries and will be ready to go whenever the puck drops.  Green was one of Edmonton’s trade deadline additions but played in just two games before getting hurt while the speedy Nygard has nine points in 33 games in his rookie campaign.

Snapshots: League Timeline, 2021 Draft, Bouwmeester

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UPDATE 4:45pm: The Toronto mayor’s office clarified the ban to TSN radio, indicating that it does not include sporting events, only “city events and event permits.”

4:00pm: As mentioned in the earlier story about the NHL extending their period of self-isolation for players and team staff, even April 15th—the new end date the league announced—seems very aggressive given the much longer bans that states, provinces, and cities have already instituted. This afternoon Toronto, one of the league’s biggest markets,  announced a ban on all public events through June 30th. That would seemingly include playoff hockey games, making it quite difficult to resume any action that includes the Maple Leafs in the next three months.

While there could be ways around a ban like this for regular season games—neutral venue sites could potentially be used—it’s hard to see a world where the Maple Leafs would be forced to play playoff contests somewhere else. Revenue from the playoffs in the league’s big markets is crucial, especially so in a season cut short. At this point, fans can only wait and see what happens, but the NHL season is just getting further and further away.

  • Another major market that has already lost an NHL event is Montreal, where the Canadiens were stripped of the 2020 Entry Draft—or at least the full scale of it. Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic reports that Montreal can expect to have a full draft either in 2021 or 2022, though there is another interesting option for next year. LeBrun tweets that the new Seattle franchise has shown interest in trying to bring the entry draft in next season to pair with the expansion draft, though it isn’t clear if it will be feasible at this point.
  • Among all the disruptions and distractions, it’s sometimes hard to find any good news these days. Alex Pietrangelo of the St. Louis Blues gave us some of that today, when he told reporters including Dan Rosen of NHL.com that teammate Jay Bouwmeester is doing well in his recovery from a cardiac episode he suffered in February. The Blues captain noted that teammates have checked in on Bouwmeester and that he has seen him walking about their shared neighborhood recently.

Toronto Maple Leafs Frontrunners To Sign Alexander Barabanov

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March 31: Maple Leafs’ GM Kyle Dubas admitted at media availability today that his team is pursuing Barabanov, explaining to Chris Johnston of Sportsnet that the team likes the Russian forward’s ability to make plays under pressure. Johnston also notes that there doesn’t seem to be any rush from Barabanov’s side to make a decision.

March 28: With the KHL playoffs now canceled, many of the league’s top free agents can now consider signing new contracts. One of the more interesting forwards, Alexander Barabanov, has expressed interest in coming to North America and signing with an NHL team with at least 20 teams showing interest in the diminutive forward to this point.

However, a recent report from Sport-Express’ overseas reporter Igor Eronko suggests that the Toronto Maple Leafs are the leading candidate to sign the 25-year-old, although he did report that there are three teams he’s considering, which also includes the Arizona Coyotes. TSN’s Darren Dreger does add that nothing is confirmed. In fact, there are no guarantees he’s definitely coming to the NHL yet. He reports that Barabanov and his agent Dan Milstein will begin interviewing teams next week.

Barabanov has played full seasons for SKA St. Petersburg in the KHL for the past five years and has scored anywhere between 10 to 20 goals in each of the last four years. He scored a career-high 17 goals and 46 points in 58 games in the 2018-19 season but saw his numbers dip this past year after suffering a broken hand in December from a slashing incident. He finished his season with 10 goals and 20 points in 43 games. Regardless, the forward is expected to fill a role as a solid bottom-six forward despite his lack of size at 5-foot-8 and 159 pounds.

If Toronto is the front-runner, it wouldn’t be a big surprise as general manager Kyle Dubas has made it a priority to add undrafted talent to his salary cap-strapped team by looking overseas. He added forward Ilya Mikheyev out of the KHL last year, who did make an impact in the first half of the season before suffering a wrist laceration when the skate of New Jersey’s Jesper Bratt ran over his wrist. Mikheyev has eight goals and 23 assists in 39 games this season. Despite the injury, he is expected to play a major role for the Maple Leafs next season. Toronto hopes they can get similar production from Barabanov if he agrees to sign with them.

Arizona is also in the mix. The Athletic’s Craig Morgan confirmed the Coyotes interest as general manager John Chayka talked with Barabanov earlier this season when he visited St. Petersburg. No word on who the third team Barabanov is considering.

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