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Snapshots: NHL Draft, Ovechkin, Crosby, Guentzel

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Yesterday, the NHL postponed the 2020 NHL Draft, which had been set to take place in Montreal on June 26-27. The league did not however indicate what the plan was to make up the event, which must occur in some form or fashion prior to the 2020-21 season. However, Pierre LeBrun writes for The Athletic that there are three possible solutions for the draft make-up. The least likely would be that the draft is simply postponed to a later date and takes place in Montreal as initially planned. LeBrun does not believe that a full draft, complete with teams, prospects, and fans alike in attendance, is a realistic option. Slightly more likely would be a scaled-down version, which LeBrun compares to the post-lockout draft in 2005, that still takes place in Montreal but with far less fanfare, but even this seems unlikely. The outcome most see occurring, falling in line with what junior leagues have decided for their own drafts, would be a virtual NHL Draft, wherein teams make their picks live from their individual war rooms. LeBrun mentions the possibility of a centralized location, in Montreal or elsewhere, with team reps and top prospects in attendance to react to the virtual selections.

If the draft does move to a virtual format, LeBrun reports that the league has promised Montreal that they will receive either the 2021 or 2022 NHL Draft. He adds that the NHL may even consider combining the NHL Entry Draft and NHL Expansion Draft into one week-long event in Montreal next summer. Given the rabid fan base of the city, it would be as good a location as any – barring Seattle itself maybe – to hold the Expansion Draft. If Montreal were to lose the draft this year only to gain two drafts next year, that would be quite the consolation prize.

  • Count arguably the two biggest names in hockey as supporters of calling the regular season and jumping right into the playoffs. On a conference call today among representatives of each of the Metropolitan Division teams, Pittsburgh’s Sidney Crosby and Washington’s Alex Ovechkin lobbied for the NHL to skip the remaining regular season games and resume play with the first round of the postseason, in whatever format they choose. Crosby opined that playing as many regular season games as possible would be best for the integrity of the season, but he “wouldn’t mind starting right at the playoffs.” Ovechkin was more direct, saying that he is “bored” with the league’s current pause and that his Capitals “don’t want to play those extra games” and would “rather start the playoffs right away.” Unsurprisingly, Carolina’s Jordan Staal, whose Hurricanes are safely in the postseason right now, agrees with Ovechkin and Crosby, while brother Marc Staal of the New York Rangers, who were hot before the league postponed its action, would rather resume the regular season in hopes of getting in. Curiously though, Columbus’ Nick Foligno, whose Blue Jackets would be in the standard playoff structure by total points but not by points percentage, the likely determinant of qualification, supported a jump right to the postseason, while the New York Islanders’ Anders Lee, whose team is in the opposite situation, preferred to finish the regular season. Opinions are sure to change based on the length of the league’s pause, the options for returning to action, and the potential format of postseason play, but for now there is major support behind surrendering the regular season in favor of an immediate postseason of some sort.
  • There are few NHL stakeholders who are benefiting from the current indefinite break in action. One of the only exceptions is Crosby’s teammate, Jake Guentzel. Guentzel suffered a shoulder injury in late December and was given a four-to-six-month recovery window following surgery. In a normal league year, that likely meant that Guentzel would be lucky to play again this season, only able to return for the playoffs, and almost certainly wouldn’t be able to get back to full strength. However, given the delay of the current pause, the status quo has shifted. Chris Adamski of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review relays word from GM Jim Rutherford that Guentzel’s rehab is going well and the team is optimistic that he will play again if the season resumes. Especially considering the strong likelihood that the NHL will need a mini training camp for teams to get back to game speed, Guentzel may even be back at full strength before a potential resumption of the regular season or start of the postseason in June or July. Guentzel recorded 43 points in 39 games playing with an injury-depleted forward corps prior to his own injury and would be a major asset for the Penguins, who would be the No. 3 seed in the Metropolitan Division if the playoffs began based on the current standings.

NHL Extends Isolation Period To April 6

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While the NHL’s main focus is on returning to action, at some point and in some way, that day won’t be coming any time soon. The Associate Press reports that the league is extending its recommended period of self-isolation for players and staff during this ongoing epidemic. Team facilities and organized activities will remain off-limits until April 6.

This change presents a ten day increase over the initial quarantine recommendation that the league made, which would have been set to end on March 27. The move resulted from opinions from both the board of governors and general managers, who held conference calls over the past two days. It also aligns more closely with the recommendations of federal and state health officials.

Meanwhile, there is still no word on when the league will resume its season and in what manner. The NHL has previously stated that they will wait for guidance from health officials before making that move and this isolation extension is certainly a signal that the resumption of play is not coming soon. Yet, the league hopes to still play out the regular season and postseason, if at all possible, while still maintaining a full 2020-21 campaign.

Latest On NHL’s Plans For Resuming Play

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Until the NHL returns to action from its current “pause”, most of the news will continue to revolve around when and how the league will return to play. Following a call between the league’s general managers today, the insiders at TSN had a number of updates on the possible timeline, as well as some of the major hurdles facing the NHL as it puts together a plan in this unprecedented time.

Bob McKenzie reports that the NHL has now gone one step further from an earlier report that they had requested arena availability from each team through July. McKenzie says that potential timeline has now been extended through August, as the new request was made this week. This could line up with a popular plan among players, which would see the NHL resume their regular season in July, compete in the 2020 postseason in August and September, take October off as the “off-season” and then return for the new league year in November. A version of this plan could be in play at the NHL, who have reiterated both a hope for a full completion of the current regular season and playoffs as well as a commitment to a full 2020-21 season.

Of course, the possibility of playing games in July and August – important games at that – raises a key logistical issue: ice conditions. Combating the heat of the summer months would be no small task. However, Pierre LeBrun believes that it is possible for every NHL team to maintain suitable ice conditions in those warmer months. He does stipulate that it would be an expensive venture, both in manpower and in air conditioning and maintenance costs. He also adds that the most important factor would be the diligence of the team ice crews, who will have to work harder and smarter than they ever have to make sure the ice surface is playable for potential playoff games during the hottest days of the year.

The other issue with 2020 games in July and August and beyond is of the legal variety. McKenzie points out that a number of current NHL contract are set to expire on June 30. While this date is simply a representation of the last day of the league year, it is written into contracts and would need to be amended to allow for an extended league year through the summer. He adds that work visas would also be affected, which could be an even more difficult hurdle as compared to contract terms, which can likely be handled internally through the league and players’ association.

Regardless, the league will do whatever it can to make sure that the season goes on, hopefully in full but at worst in part. Frank Seravalli relays an estimate that if the league does not resume the 2019-20 season in summer manner, they will be facing losses of up to $1 billion. They also do not expect any insurance bailouts to help resolve the situation. This is all the incentive that the league, teams, players, and all stakeholders need to be flexible when constructing a plan to return to action. Already, the league office and many teams have begun to cut staff salary in an effort to save for possible losses, but the best way to avoid a potential billion-dollar gouge is to somehow find a way to complete the season with as many games, regular and playoff, as possible.

IOC To Wait One Month Before Deciding On Olympic Fate

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The International Olympic Committee announced today they are giving themselves a mid-April deadline to decide on the fate of the Olympics which are currently slated to start in Tokyo on July 24 through August 9, according to CBC Sports. There are several options the IOC could choose from, which includes postponing the event due to COVID-19. Sportsnet also reports that cancellation of the event has been ruled out.

That decision could play an instrumental role for the NHL as many believed that the NHL’s decision on how long they could postpone their season might hinge on the Olympic Games. The Athletic’s Pierre LeBrun made it clear a week ago that the NHL had no interest in putting their playoffs up against the Olympics in late July, leaving the league with a tentative drop-dead date. However, if the Olympics opts to postpone their Summer Games, the NHL may be able to bide more time to push the season back.

LeBrun also noted last week that a possible playoff format has been informally proposed that would push the playoffs into August and September, which then wouldn’t interfere for the 2020-21 season. That scenario could become increasingly more likely if the Olympics is postponed.

Snapshots: 2020-21 Season, Trade Conditions, 2020 Draft

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While hockey minds are hard at work trying to come up with a plan to fairly complete the 2019-20 NHL regular season and playoffs, if and when the league returns to action, those strategies cannot interfere with a full 2020-21 season. TSN’s Pierre Lebrun relays word from NHL Deputy Commissioner Bill Daly that the league sees an 82-game season next year as imperative and will not entertain any options that call for a shortened 2020-21 season due to the interference with the 2019-20 campaign. With that said, LeBrun adds that the league will be flexible when it comes to start and end dates and schedule density next year, so long as each team plays 82 games. This could allow for the NHL to adopt an idea that has become popular amongst players during the break: a brief training camp and resumption of regular season play in July, an August and September postseason, an October off-season, and a return to action for a condensed 2020-21 season at some point in November. LeBrun notes that a cancellation of bye weeks and All-Star events next year could help to make a plan like this become reality. The NHL will look at all of their options, assuming there is a possibility that the current season can resume, to make next season run as normally as possible with 82 games being the critical criteria.

  • Should the NHL not be able to complete the 2019-20 season as scheduled, TSN’s Frank Seravalli states that one of biggest things that the NHL will need to clarify is a policy on trade and contract conditions. Those conditions are made with the implication of an 82-game schedule, as well as a full postseason. If those things become an impossibility, is there a fair way to determine whether conditions were met or not? Seravalli uses last summer’s trade between Pacific Division rivals Edmonton and Calgary as an example. In the swap of Milan Lucic for James Neal, a unique condition was added that awards the Flames a 2020 third-round pick if a) Neal scores at least 21 goals and b) Lucic scores ten or more goals fewer than Neal. As it stands, Neal has 19 goals on the season, so the first condition would not be met if the season ended today. However, since the deal was made with the assumption of 82 games, a pro-rated result would see Neal with 23 goals and Lucic with nine, which would result in Calgary landing the pick. The problem, as Seravalli describes, with either strategy is that it does not accurately make up for missed games. With a number of conditional picks and bonus clauses in play, the NHL would face the tough task of how it decides to treat conditions if the regular season and possibly the playoffs as well cannot be completed. Seravalli even mentions compensatory draft picks as a possibility to offset effected trade conditions.
  • One league event that is certain to occur, at some point and in some manner, is the 2020 NHL Draft. The draft is likely to remain in Montreal, but the June 26-27 dates look unlikely and the usual public audience and organized fanfare would be even more improbable if the event does go on as scheduled. In all likelihood, the draft will be postponed, but it will occur all the same. As such, NHL.com has released their updated March rankings of the top 31 players in the class. Although there hasn’t been much new film to study in recent weeks, with junior leagues paused, the college season cancelled, and most European leagues ending as well, the staff at NHL.com has made a notable changes since their last edition earlier this month. Finnish forward Anton Lundell has snuck into the top ten, supplanting Russian goaltender Yaroslav Askarov. Much like eventual Florida Panthers pick Spencer Knight last year, there was heavy top-ten talk about Askarov this season as well, but it has cooled somewhat of late as the depth of elite forward in the class could make it difficult to select a netminder so early.

Extension Notes: Donovan, Svedberg, Leksands

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While Matt Donovan would undoubtedly rather remain under contract with the Nashville Predators, he will settle for staying in familiar territory and continuing his relationship with the organization. The Predators’ AHL affiliate, the Milwaukee Admirals, announced today that they had signed Donovan to a two-year AHL contract, an extension of sorts for the veteran defenseman. While Donovan only played in two games with Nashville last season and zero this season, he has been crucial piece for Milwaukee in both campaigns. An experienced two-way defenseman who has spent time in the New York Islanders organization as well as in Sweden and in the NCAA with the University of Denver, Donovan is known as a possession defenseman who can jump up into the play but can also be relied upon for physicality and defensive awareness. A top-pair defenseman for the Admirals, Donovan will continue to play a major role for the team while he sets his personal sights on playing his way back onto an NHL contract.

  • A move that flew under the radar recently – as fans hold out hope for a continued NHL season and are not thinking ahead to free agency just yet – is goaltender Niklas Svedberg resigning in Sweden. The 30-year-old netminder, and former member of the Boston Bruins and Minnesota Wild, was one of the best goalies in the SHL this season. Yet, despite what could be a weak goalie market this summer, Svedberg has opted to re-up with Djurgardens IF rather than test the NHL waters again. The team announced a new two-year deal with Svedberg, retaining one of their most valuable assets for a while longer. Svedberg would be 33 before he could have the chance to suit up once again in North America, which could mean that his NHL days are over. The talented keeper never quite found the right time to break into a consistent NHL role, despite strong numbers at both the NHL and AHL level – including an AHL All-Star nod in 2012-13 – as well as some stellar seasons in the KHL and SHL. It seems the veteran goalie is simply content to stay in his native country and continue to be one of Sweden’s best at his position.
  • Staying in Sweden, Leksands IF has a lot to look forward to as they have retained two young standouts in Alexander Lundqvist and Nils Aman. The team announced two-year contract extensions with both exciting young pieces, who each made their SHL debut this season. Lundqvist, 19, is the nephew of Hall of Fame defenseman Nicklas Lidstrom and a budding puck-moving defenseman in his own right. Undrafted in 2019, Lundqvist will be up for grabs again this year and should draw more attention following a 24-point campaign in the SuperElit and an eight-game stint in the SHL. At 6’2”, 183 lbs. and lauded skating ability, Lundqvist projects as a solid two-way defenseman and should step into a regular SHL role next year. Aman, 20, has a similar stature to Lundqvist but plays up front and has the numbers to prove it. Aman posted 47 points in 30 games in the SuperElit and made the most of his own eight-game stint in the SHL with three points. Aman looks ready for the top level and should slot into a consistent role next year as well. A youth movement could be coming to Leksands, who need all the help they can get after only missing the relegation game due to the league’s recent cancellation.

Could Coronavirus Lead To The Return Of Compliance Buyouts?

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Just two weeks after the NHL announced a projected 2020-21 salary cap range that would have represented a major boost in teams’ spending power, things could not have gone in a worse direction in terms of meeting that estimation. The Coronavirus outbreak has shut the league down and there is no way to know when or if games will return this season. The league hopes to resume play and even maintains that they would like to avoid missing any games, but with each passing day that reality grows less and less likely. COVID-19 fears seem almost certain to cost games if not the entirety of the remaining regular season schedule and, in the worst-case scenario, possibly the playoffs as well. Missed games are missed revenue opportunities and the board of governors would be highly unlikely to approve a cap increase, especially of the magnitude initially projected, if they continue to suffer losses.

The last time that the NHL was forced to cancel games was in the 2012-13 lockout-shortened season. As the league and players’ association battled over collective bargaining terms, the NHL missed the first half of their season. A 48-game schedule began on January 19th, which for all involved was better than nothing but was certainly a hit to owners’ bottom lines. The 2012-13 campaign was expected to carry a $70.2MM cap hit, but that instead was a pro-rated number that in reality was just $60MM. The following season, given the lost revenue, the cap only meagerly returned to just $64.3MM, the same upper limit as in 2011-12.

Due to the unexpected stagnation of the salary cap for those two years, many teams were left under immense pressure to fit their rosters under the ceiling. In response, the NHL offered a solution: the “compliance buyout”. The compliance buyout follows the same rules as a standard buyout, allowing teams to cut ties with a player at the cost of two-thirds of the remaining value of their contract (one-third if under 26) over the course of double the length of the remaining term on the contract. The one defining difference is that compliance buyouts do not count against the salary cap. The NHL made this option available in the 2013 and 2014 off-seasons, with a limit of two per team over the two summers, and 18 teams took advantage. In fact, a number of teams are still paying off those buyouts – with a ways to go – with standouts including Christian Ehrhoff, Brad Richards, Ilya Bryzgalov, Vincent Lecavalier, and of course Rick DiPietro.

Could the compliance buyout make a return appearance should the Coronavirus outbreak continue to prevent NHL action from returning? If NHL teams end up losing revenue due to missed games, the 2020-21 salary cap limit will at best be the low end of the league’s projection, which is $84MM. And that would still be a $2.5MM increase. More likely in the case of canceled games would be the salary cap remaining at $81.5MM or only increasing marginally. Such a shift in the expected course of action would leave many teams in trouble. A report earlier today named the Chicago Blackhawks as one team that would have to make difficult roster decisions in the event of a stagnant cap, but they are far from alone. 13 teams already have $70MM+ in salary committed to 2020-21, while many of the 12 more  teams in the $60-70MM range either have key free agents to re-sign or are working with a small number of signed players. The Arizona Coyotes, who lead the pack with $79.99MM committed to just 18 players, were already hard-pressed to deal with an $84MM salary cap, nevertheless a continuation of the current $81.5MM. They would be left in a nearly impossible situation, unless offered a way out.

As such, it seems like a strong possibility that the compliance buyout could make its triumphant return. While the league does not want to address the “what if” of missed games at this point in time, should it reach the point where that result is inevitable, compliance buyouts will certainly become a hot topic. Whether the league would go about the process in a similar manner as they did last time around remains to be seen. They might instead offer a one-time shot this summer in light of NHL Expansion in 2021 that should get the salary cap back on track. It’s too early to tell, but as we all wait out the Coronavirus, it’s worth wondering whether the league could bring back an old device to mitigate the lasting effect of the pandemic.

Ottawa Senators Player Tests Positive For COVID-19

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The NHL could only escape for so long. Tonight the Ottawa Senators have announced that one of their players has tested positive for coronavirus (COVID-19) and is in isolation. The player is experiencing mild symptoms.

According to Hailey Salvian and James Mirtle of The Athletic (subscription required), several Senators players are dealing with symptoms and awaiting test results. The report notes that the Senators team played at the Staples Center in Los Angeles just before the NHL shutdown, which had just hosted the Brooklyn Nets of the NBA, who have had four players test positive for COVID-19 in recent days.

The Senators announced that the team is now notifying anyone who has had close contact with the player in question—whose identity has not yet been revealed—and that the rest of the team has been asked to stay isolated.

This is the first NHL player to test positive for the disease.

If it was contracted in the Staples Center facilities, it shows just how important it was for both leagues to quickly suspend play. After the Senators played on March 11th, there was due another team—be it NHL or NBA—in one of the visiting locker rooms for each of the next 11 days. The Nets, Houston Rockets, Anaheim Ducks, New Orleans Pelicans, Denver Nuggets, Dallas Mavericks, Montreal Canadiens, Utah Jazz, Boston Bruins, Phoenix Suns, Vancouver Canucks and Arizona Coyotes were all on the schedule from March 12th through 22nd, not to mention the Los Angeles Kings, Clippers and Lakers who would all be sharing the playing surface.

NHL Issues New Directive To Players

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After the CDC recommended all gatherings of more than 50 people to be avoided for the next eight weeks, sports leagues around North America quickly realized that their suspended seasons may not be returning as quickly as originally planned. With that in mind the NHL has now issued a new directive to players according to Chris Johnston of Sportsnet, indicating that they are allowed to go home or leave the country but must stay in self-quarantine until the end of March. As Johnston explains, this comes in stark contrast to the league’s previous plan to keep players in their team cities and ready to return to practice. Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman quotes the memo directly:

Our objective will be that, in addition to continuing regular updates, we will be able to provide high-level guidance on potential of opening a training camp period roughly 45 days into the 60-day period covered by the CDC’s directive.

That timeline can obviously change by the minute as we have seen, meaning at this point it’s hard to even speculate on when the NHL will return to action. Players leaving the country will only make restarting the league take even longer once a decision is made, and will very much mean any activation would be dependent on the travel policies of the involved nations.

World Championship In Jeopardy Of Being Cancelled

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While it may not come as much of a surprise with hockey leagues and tournaments getting cancelled, one of the biggest tournaments coming up in May is the World Championship, which is supposed to be held in Switzerland between May 8-24, could find itself on the chopping block as well.

According to German website SRF (translation required), IIHF President Rene Fasel has expressed concern over whether the World Championships will likely be played.

“With the current facts, it is hard to imagine that the World Cup will be held. We have a responsibility to the people of the country,” said Fasel. “It is now a matter of discussing the situation – with all those involved. We still have some time and would like to make the decision with a clear head.”

With the tournament just eight weeks away, it would seem unlikely that the tournament will continue at the moment with the threat of COVID-19 at its peak in Europe. On top of that, with the NHL season still to be determined, there is a possiblity that NHL players will not be availabe at the start of the tournament, even players from non-playoff teams, as the season could be pushed back.

Fasel will have a conference call Tuesday with national officials regarding the status of the tournaments and said he hopes to have a decision made by the end of the week.

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