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Looking At The Boston Bruins Salary Cap Crunch

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In a rundown of hockey news today, Matt Porter of the Boston Globe addressed, amongst other things, the Boston Bruins impending salary cap crunch, and speculated on what the organization could do to improve its situation (link). In sum, Porter says that even with Brad Marchand slated to miss time after surgery on both of his hips, presumably landing him on LTIR to start the season, and with Patrice Bergeron either not returning or perhaps taking a steep discount, Boston could still find itself up against the salary cap next season, not even considering any moves the team needs to make to improve.

As of right now, the Bruins are projected to have just $2.84MM in salary cap space next season, which does not factor in making any moves, or creating any additional space, like putting Marchand on LTIR. Though not over the cap, if Boston wants to improve or even return the same quality team to the ice, they will need to spend to do so, but would have to get creative with how they shed salary. One suggestion Porter makes is to buy out the contract of forward Nick Foligno, who has one-year at $3.8MM left on his contract. Doing so would reduce the cap hit to just $1.933MM next season and $930K after. Foligno has been a reliable point producer and excellent leader his entire career, however his production fell off sharply this season with Boston, tallying a mere two goals and 11 assists in 64 games.

Still a tremendous veteran presence for any team, his $3.8MM cap hit is tough to justify on a team as close to the ceiling as Boston. If the organization wants to eliminate his entire cap hit, they will likely find a market for which to trade him, however the veteran will have a 16-team no-trade list and dealing him would likely require the Bruins to send draft pick or prospect compensation with him. It might seem unlikely that Foligno would accept a trade from a perennial contender to, expectedly, a rebuilding team, however a team in the market to absorb Foligno’s salary would likely be able to give him the ice-time and role he might prefer, as well as a chance to be dealt to a competitive team at the trade deadline anyways.

Another suggestion from Porter would be to make a practical trade of a regular, albeit replaceable player, such as forward Craig Smith or defensemen Matt Grzelcyk or Mike Reilly. Smith, who has one more year at $3.1MM, has been a solid contributor for Boston since coming over from the Nashville Predators in free agency prior to the 2020-21 season, putting up a solid 16 goals and 20 assists in 74 games this season. With his solid play and reasonable cap hit, Boston should be able to find a partner in a Smith trade and even receive an asset in return. The Bruins could then replace Smith in-house with young options like Fabian Lysell, Oskar Steen, or Jack Studnicka, as Porter suggests.

As good as Reilly and Grzelcyk have been for the Bruins, Porter adds that they are very similar players, thus making one potentially expendable in the right situation. Both players have two more years remaining on their contracts, Reilly at a cap hit of $3MM and Grzelcyk at just under $3.69MM. In addition to having very similar styles of play, the two have also had remarkably similar production, both tallying 44 points over their previous two seasons, Grzelcyk doing so in 110 games, Reilly in 125. On the left side, the team does also have Derek Forbort under contract at $3MM for the next season, though he is not as remarkably similar to Grzelcyk and Reilly as those two are to one another. Trading any of the three would also not pose a hazard to Boston’s depth, as they also have the recently-acquired-and-extended Hampus Lindholm and 25-year-old Jakub Zboril, who is still awaiting his first job as an NHL-regular.

Finally, a seemingly obvious solution for Boston would be to trade forward Jake DeBrusk, who owns a $4MM cap hit through 2023-24, and notably asked for a trade earlier this season (link). After requesting the trade, DeBrusk continued to play hard, and well, for Boston, ultimately finishing the season with 25 goals and 17 assists in 77 games. For his career, DeBrusk has continually produced similar numbers outside of a poor, outlier 2020-21 season and at age-26 for most of next season, his contract represents solid value for whatever team has him. Trading DeBrusk might seem like a given, but if the winger possibly changed his mind or is willing to play out the remainder of his contract, keeping him may be a prudent decision for Boston considering his value. Though DeBrusk has the highest cap hit of any player discussed, ultimately when trying to build a competitive team under the salary cap, the salary cap hit is less important than the overall value the team is receiving on the deal.

NHL Announces Conference Final Schedule Scenarios

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After one-half of the conference finalists have been set, the NHL has released the potential schedule matrix for the 2022 Eastern and Western Conference Finals.

No matter what, the Eastern Conference Final will start June 1, whether it be in Raleigh or Manhattan. The Tampa Bay Lightning will be the visitor after sweeping the Presidents’ Trophy-winning Florida Panthers in the Second Round. The Lightning actually finished with the same point total as the New York Rangers (110), but surrender the tiebreaker, so it’s impossible for them to start the series at home. They would also start on the road against the Metropolitan Division champion Carolina Hurricanes. The Eastern Conference Final will be televised on ESPN in the United States.

For the Western Conference, the schedule depends on the result of tonight’s Game 6 between the Colorado Avalanche and St. Louis Blues. If Colorado is victorious tonight, the series will start on May 31st in Denver. If it goes to a Game 7, the Edmonton Oilers will travel to either Denver or St. Louis for Game 1 on June 2. In the United States, the Western Conference Final will be on TNT.

The last possible day for Conference Final action is June 15, with a potential Western Conference Final Game 7 between the Oilers and either the Avalanche or Blues.

Atlantic Notes: St. Louis, Giroux, Senators

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The Montreal Canadiens made waves earlier this season when the most storied franchise in NHL history replaced a head coach that had just guided them to their first Stanley Cup Final appearance in nearly 30 years with someone who had no professional coaching experience to speak of. However, under Laval native Martin St. Louis, the Canadiens, despite being battered and bruised, looked rejuvenated and carried much more of the same energy that had taken them through four rounds in 2021.

Now, it appears that St. Louis has done enough to impress the team’s front office and guide them through what’s likely to be a tumultuous next few seasons in terms of roster construction. TSN’s Darren Dreger reports that he expects the Canadiens to announce an extension for St. Louis “in the near future”, although there’s no timeline given for this. The Canadiens finished the season 14-19-4 under St. Louis, a marked improvement over the team’s abysmal 8-30-7 record under Ducharme.

  • After being swept out of the Second Round by the Tampa Bay Lightning, Claude Giroux expressed interest today in returning to the Presidents’ Trophy-winning Florida Panthers. How the team manages to make that work under the salary cap, though, is a gigantic mystery. While the Panthers don’t have any significant pieces to re-sign aside from Giroux and Mason Marchment, the team is greatly restricted in salary space next year by the combined $6.575MM cap hit from the Keith Yandle and Scott Darling buyouts. With that, the team will have just $4MM in cap space this offseason with depth roster spots to fill. Giroux would need to take a steeply discounted deal, which could be unlikely given the much more rich offers he’ll receive elsewhere. Giroux had 23 points in 18 games down the stretch for the Panthers in the regular season and eight points in 10 playoff games.
  • The Ottawa Senators appear to be ready to take aggressive steps in exiting their rebuild, with general manager Pierre Dorion saying that the team’s seventh overall pick at the 2022 NHL Draft is on the table for trade. Dorion also said that he’s focused on acquiring a top-four defenseman or a high-end forward, if possible. While the Senators do have a strong pool to deal from, they’re also a core that has proven very little with the team staying stagnant in the standings this season. With the team sitting on over $20MM worth of cap space again this offseason, though, they have the roster flexibility to make moves.

Minor Transactions: 05/25/22

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While the North American focus on hockey remains starkly on the Stanley Cup Playoffs, most European seasons have wrapped up by now. That means a lot of players with NHL pedigrees are involved in some foreign transactions. We’ll keep track of those here today:

  • Defenseman Andrey Pedan, a 2011 third-round pick of the New York Islanders and 13-game NHL veteran with the Vancouver Canucks, is on the move in the KHL. SKA St. Petersburg acquired him via trade today from Dynamo Moskva, meaning Pedan will suit up for his third different KHL team since returning to Russia in 2018. Born in Lithuania, Pedan has Russian citizenship but underwent the majority of his development in North America. He came to join the OHL in 2010 and played professionally exclusively in North America through 2018.
  • Former Minnesota Wild and Washington Capital Casey Wellman announced his retirement today via Instagram. The California native was never drafted but made the jump to the NHL after the Wild picked him as a free agent from UMass in 2010. Before beginning a professional career in Europe in 2015, Wellman appeared in 54 NHL games, scoring six goals, 10 assists and 16 points.

Pittsburgh Penguins Extend Taylor Fedun

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It turns out there’s a second piece of news regarding a Pittsburgh Penguins depth defenseman today. The team announced Wednesday morning that Taylor Fedun has agreed to a two-year, two-way contract extension that runs through the 2023-24 season and carries an average annual value of $762,500.

The news comes after news broke that Juuso Riikola had left the organization as an unrestricted free agent, opting to play in Sweden for 2022-23.

Fedun, now 33, last played in the NHL during the Dallas Stars’ run to the 2020 Stanley Cup Final. After he ended up spending the entire 2020-21 season with the Stars either on the taxi squad or in the AHL (only two games), Fedun signed as an unrestricted free agent with Pittsburgh this past offseason. He spent the entirety of 2021-22 with the AHL’s Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins, serving as captain and tallying five goals, 11 assists, and 16 points in 44 games.

The Edmonton-born defender will stick around in the AHL as a valuable mentor for up-and-coming Penguins defensemen, and he can still be a decent call-up option in the case of injury.

Undrafted, Fedun first broke into the league as a 25-year-old with the Edmonton Oilers in 2013-14. Since then, he’s appeared in NHL games for the Stars, San Jose Sharks, Vancouver Canucks, and Buffalo Sabres. Over seven separate seasons, Fedun has 127 NHL games under his belt with eight goals, 27 assists, and 35 points. He’s seen limited usage in those games, averaging a career number of 13:56 per game.

Juuso Riikola Signs In Sweden

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The Pittsburgh Penguins won’t be getting at least one depth defenseman back next season. IK Oskarshamn of the SHL has announced the signing of Juuso Riikola for the 2022-23 season.

Riikola spent four years in the Penguins organization but spent most of his time in the AHL for the first time this year. He signed with the team in 2018 as a free agent after a six-year stint in the Finnish Liiga with KalPa. However, Riikola had played just seven NHL games over the past two seasons combined, playing just two in 2020-21 while spending the entire season on the taxi squad.

Over the past four NHL seasons, the 28-year-old Riikola played 80 games, tallying three goals, 10 assists and 13 points. While a reasonable option to slide into the lineup in case of injury, at his age, Riikola will likely opt to stay in Europe long-term, playing out his prime years in a more sizeable role.

Mikko Koskinen Reportedly Heading Overseas For 2022-23

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Despite currently serving as the backup for the Edmonton Oilers and even seeing game action in Game 1 of the Second Round, there appears to already be some clarity on goalie Mikko Koskinen’s future for next season. Former NHL head coach Bob Hartley spoke today, saying that Koskinen has already accepted an offer to play for HC Lugano in the Swiss National League next season.

If true, it will likely mark the end of Koskinen’s second and final stint in North America. The Finnish netminder, drafted 31st overall by the New York Islanders in 2009, had one stint in North America from 2009-2012 in the Islanders organization, playing in four NHL games. He returned to the NHL as a free agent with Edmonton in 2018, serving as a solid tandem netminder for them for the past four seasons. As uncertainty mounts in the Oilers crease moving forward, though, it looks like Koskinen has opted to take himself out of the picture for their second goalie next season.

40-year-old Mike Smith is (somehow) still under contract with the team for next season, and they do have a solid internal option in Stuart Skinner as the backup. However, with such a gigantic question mark with Smith as a 41-year-old starter, Edmonton will surely attempt to make a significant acquisition in free agency to shore up the crease.

 

Looking Ahead To Nick Leddy’s Impending Free Agency

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Despite being with his third team in the last year, Nick Leddy is back in a familiar place: the Stanley Cup Playoffs. A veteran of 12 NHL seasons, Leddy has been to the playoffs in 10 of them, suiting up for 125 playoff contests, four of which have come this postseason as a member of the St. Louis Blues, the first playoff games he has played not wearing a Chicago Blackhawks or New York Islanders jersey. Once Leddy’s season is over, whenever that may be (St. Louis currently trails Colorado 1-0 in their second round series), Leddy will find himself in uncharted territory: unrestricted free agency.

At 31-years-old, Leddy has never had the opportunity to hit the open market, initially signing extensions as a RFA with the Chicago Blackhawks, and then the New York Islanders after an October, 2014 trade. Leddy’s expiring contract, a seven-year, $38.5MM deal, was signed with the Islanders in 2015 before Leddy was set to become a RFA. That contract proved to provide good value to the Islanders, for whom Leddy played 518 regular season games and 67 playoff games, many of which were as one of the team’s top defensemen. However, with cap concerns creeping up this past offseason, Leddy would find himself once again traded, this time to the rebuilding Detroit Red Wings. The veteran was tasked to be a leader in a young dressing room, with the organization hoping they could take the next step. On the outside of the playoff picture once again, Detroit dealt Leddy at the trade deadline, where he would become a key piece on the blueline for the St. Louis Blues, who have their eyes set on their second Stanley Cup in four seasons.

Now an UFA, Leddy will look to parlay his experience into another contract to cover his early and mid-30’s. What Leddy’s next contract will look like is an interesting discussion however, as he has plenty to admire, but does pose some concerns for a team that would be committing to him. First, looking at the positives, Leddy can be described as a durable defenseman who skates and moves the puck well, and who has developed his defensive game nicely in the past few seasons. Over the course of his career, Leddy has missed very few games and would average over 40 points-person-season in his prime. After a tough 2017-18 season which would see Leddy accumulating a minus-42 rating despite having 42 points of his own, Leddy was able to reinvent his game under coach Barry Trotz. Though the strong point totals did not come back to their previous form, the defenseman showed his ability to work diligently in his own end and move the puck out routinely.

On the other hand, after being traded to Detroit and away from the system that saw him take steps forward defensively, Leddy again struggled in his own end, and played to a minus-33 rating in Detroit before being traded to St. Louis. With the Blues, Leddy would rebound, posting eight points to go with a plus-3 rating in 20 regular season games down the stretch. Still, as a 31 year old defenseman who relies heavily on his skating, Leddy’s prime is likely behind him and even with the steps he has taken to round out his game, his occasional struggles defensively do raise concern.

All of this is to say, Leddy is more than a capable NHL defenseman, but these factors will play into what his next contract looks like. He almost certainly will not receive the seven-year term he has on his current contract, and the $5.5MM AAV it carries is potentially out of the question too. However, on a shorter-term contract of three or four years, Leddy could push a number that is close to his previous salary even if he cannot reach it.

One name to look at as a potential comparison for Leddy is Toronto Maple Leafs defenseman T.J. Brodie. The former Calgary Flames blueliner signed his four-year, $20MM contract with Toronto just after turning 30 years of age, a year younger than Leddy is now, but on a similar trajectory. Brodie, like Leddy, made a name for himself in his mid-20’s as a smooth skating, puck moving defenseman who could regularly provide point totals in the mid-40’s. Then, like Leddy, Brodie’s defensive struggles would become apparent before making adjustments to solidify his defense.

Unlike Leddy, when Brodie’s defensive game took a change for the better between 2017-18 and 2018-19, his offensive output would stay the same. However, the next season, 2019-20, Brodie’s offensive numbers would dip severely, albeit still playing a sound game in his own end. It was after this season that Brodie hit the UFA market and signed with Toronto. Now for Leddy, much as it was for Brodie after making impressive changes to his defensive game, but hitting some bumps in the road, he will hit the UFA market.

Ultimately, Leddy’s market should come down to a combination of factors that should include the flat salary cap, how teams believe his game will fit in their system, and perhaps most importantly, how those teams feel his game, which is particularly skating-reliant, will age over the life of the contract. What may be his biggest selling point, however, is something mentioned in the beginning of this article: his 125 games, and counting, in the Stanley Cup playoffs, accumulated over 10 of his 12 NHL seasons, including a Stanley Cup, experience which, of course, cannot be taken away with age.

Edmonton Oilers Recall Seven Players

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The Edmonton Oilers’ AHL affiliate, the Bakersfield Condors, were eliminated from the Calder Cup playoffs on Friday, and as a result, the Oilers became free to call up players without fear of their absences negatively impacting their affiliate team. Today, the Oilers announced that they have called up seven players from the Condors, a group that will form the team’s “Black Aces,” or players who practice, travel, and remain ready for their NHL teams but typically do not see game action. Those seven players are:

Perhaps the most significant name there is the goaltender, Skinner. In the unfortunate and unlikely circumstance that the Oilers’ starting goaltender, Mike Smith, gets injured or is otherwise unable to play, it’s possible that coach Jay Woodcroft could prefer to start Skinner over backup Mikko Koskinen, given their respective performances in the regular season. Koskinen played in 45 games this regular season and had a .903 save percentage and a 3.10 goals-against-average. Skinner, on the other hand, posted a .913 save percentage this year, albeit in only 13 games of work at the NHL level.

The Oilers are obviously hoping that they won’t have to make such a choice, but now with Skinner and some top prospects such as Broberg, Holloway, and Samorukov in the fold, they have some more options in case this version of the Battle of Alberta proves to be especially violent.

Snapshots: Blidh, Santini, Rubins

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Boston Bruins forward Anton Blidh expressed frustration over his role and ice-time with the team through the last few weeks of the regular season and in the playoffs. In talking to Fluto Shinzawa of The Athletic, Blidh mentioned that he did not appreciate being scratched in all seven of the Bruins’ playoff games, as well as 11 of the final 12 regular season games, and even said that at times, he would have preferred to be in the AHL, where he could have played regularly. Shinzawa suggested that while Blidh did have his positives and perhaps could have challenged forward Nick Foligno for ice-time, he did have his drawbacks and Bruins Head Coach Bruce Cassidy ultimately preferred to go with Foligno’s experience in these situations.

A pending UFA, Blidh does not have to endure his frustrations with the Bruins any longer if he chooses not to. Originally a sixth-round draft pick of Boston in 2013, Blidh has played parts of six seasons with the team, tallying four goals and eight assists in 70 career games in that time. Some of Blidh’s frustration can be understood, as a look back at the last three seasons shows that Blidh has played in 49 NHL games in that period, but just 15 AHL games. This season, Blidh played in 32 contests for Boston, but played zero AHL games. Even with COVID-shortened seasons, playing in just 64 games over three seasons could foreseeably be frustrating for any player.

  • The St. Louis Blues announced that they have recalled defenseman Steven Santini from the Springfield Thunderbirds of the AHL. After spending the entire year with Springfield, putting up 18 points in 66 games, Santini has shuffled back and forth between Springfield and St. Louis in the month of May, even getting his first NHL action of the 2021-22 season against the Minnesota Wild in the first round of the playoffs. It’s unclear if there is a specific motive behind the Blues’ decision to recall Santini, however it does raise eyebrows given the team’s rash of injuries to their defensemen late this season and into the first round, which necessitated Santini’s playoff appearance in the first place.
  • It appears that Toronto Maple Leafs prospect Kristians Rubins will head to the World Championships to join Team Latvia (link). Listed at 6’5″ and 227 pounds, Rubins has made a name for himself as an imposing, physical defender who can shut down the opposition. In 58 games with the AHL’s Toronto Marlies this season, Rubins had one goal an 10 assists, and was even able to make his NHL debut for the Maple Leafs, playing in three games in December. The 24-year-old may have joined Latvia sooner, however he was on the Maple Leafs roster in the playoffs as a reserve.

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