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Poll: How Many Top Free Agents Will Re-Sign Before July 1st?

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The season is over for all but four NHL teams, meaning free agents from the other 27 clubs are already focused on July 1st and the start of free agency. How many of those top free agents are still considering staying where they are versus testing the market? How many teams have the means and interest to re-sign them?

In January, PHR published our Mid-Season UFA Power Rankings: 1-10, 11-20, and honorable mentions. Mark Stone, Eric Staal, Jakob Silfverberg and Jimmy Howard – four of our top 25 –  have already signed extensions. However, the other top names and their current squads have exactly seven weeks to decide whether or not they will follow suit.

The Columbus Blue Jackets went all in at the trade deadline and it paid off with the franchise’s first ever playoff series win, a shocking sweep of the President’s Trophy-winning Tampa Bay Lightning. Yet, the acquisitions of Ottawa Senators standouts Matt Duchene (No. 5) and Ryan Dzingel (No. 16) was not enough to get the team through round two, nevertheless to a Stanley Cup title. Now, the team faces the possibility that their new additions could walk in free agency alongside stars Artemi Panarin (No. 2) and Sergei Bobrovsky (No. 6), leaving them with major holes to fill. The latter duo have long been expected to test the market, perhaps even as a package deal. Additionally, the conditional 2020 first-round pick tied to re-signing Duchene would seemingly make it less likely that Columbus opts to extend him, especially given their lack of picks in the upcoming draft. None of those three have officially ruled out a return to the Blue Jackets, but it doesn’t look good. On the other hand, Dzingel, an Ohio State University alum, looks like he could be a more natural long-term fit, but it hasn’t prevented rumors that other teams are very interested in signing him.

Another free agent-heavy team that blew through round one of the playoffs only to be knocked off in round two are the New York Islanders. After losing John Tavares last summer, going through the same with top forward Anders Lee (No. 9) would be devastating for the Islanders franchise. Yet, the captain still remains unsigned. It’s fair to assume they will eventually figure it out, but that line of thinking if awfully reminiscent of last year. New York is reportedly pushing hard to retain enter Brock Nelson (No. 11) and winger Jordan Eberle (No. 15) as well, but they could be more inclined to test the market. There’s also the question of resurgent goalie Robin Lehner (No. 23). Will the Islanders lock up the young keeper who was so solid this season? Or will they refuse to pay market value for a player that has benefited from their system while splitting time with Thomas Greiss?

Another team of interest are the San Jose Sharks, who remain alive in the Western Conference Final. Superstar defenseman Erik Karlsson (No. 1) and respected veteran forward Joe Pavelski (No. 7) are both heading for free agency and the Sharks may be hard-pressed to sign both. There’s also deadline addition Gustav Nyquist (No. 14) to consider re-signing, as he has had a strong postseason with the Sharks. The Carolina Hurricanes are also one of four teams still playing and are definitely happy they held on to forward Micheal Ferland (No. 18). Ferland is reportedly expected to test the market, but after a deep postseason run he may be more open to extending his stay with the Hurricanes.

It was a difficult end to the year for the Winnipeg Jets, who were one-and-done this year, falling to the St. Louis Blues in the first round. Between rental center Kevin Hayes (No. 8) and big defenseman Tyler Myers (No. 10), the Jets have a pair of coveted free agents on the roster who they would surely like to keep, but that is the least of their worries as they face a daunting impending cap crunch. It could make bringing back even one of the two nearly impossible. The same goes for defenseman Jake Gardiner (No. 12) and the Toronto Maple Leafs. The Leafs will have a hard enough time keeping their roster together and re-signing their current restricted free agent, nevertheless managing to re-sign Gardiner.

Generally, playoff rentals proceed to hit the free agent market rather than re-up with their new teams. In addition to Duchene, Dzingel, Hayes, and Nyquist, Nashville’s Wayne Simmonds (No. 13), Dallas’ Mats Zuccarello (No. 21), and Colorado’s Derick Brassard (No. 24) could very well be headed to yet another destination. Simmonds and Brassard were disappointments in their short stays, but Zuccarello proved to be a nice fit with the Stars. However, the team would lose a first-round pick rather than a second-round pick to the New York Rangers if they were to re-sign the veteran forward. That may not be enough to stop them from extending him, though.

If there was any doubt that the Buffalo Sabres couldn’t re-sign Jeff Skinner (No. 4), one would think he would have been dealt at the trade deadline. However, he remains suspiciously unsigned and would be a massive addition to the free agent market if he does make it to July. Skinner has been a great match with Jack Eichel and certainly looks like a long-term fit in Buffalo, but the team’s second-half struggles could have Skinner re-thinking a long-term stay.

Vancouver’s Alexander Edler (No. 22) stated that his preference was not to be dealt at this year’s trade deadline and to instead re-sign with the Canucks. The two sides have been working toward an extension, but until pen meets paper he is still an impending free agent that will attract considerable attention. Similarly, Semyon Varlamov (No. 17) has expressed an interest in remaining with the Colorado Avalanche, but it’s unclear if the feeling is mutual. Varlamov would have to take a major pay cut to stay on as backup and may rather test a goalie market that has already lost Howard and could lose Lehner before free agency opens.

Compared to recent years, this impending free agent class does look to have fewer locks for extensions among top players. Any of these names could hit the market, although odds are they won’t all choose to do so. Regardless, this could be a healthy market come July 1st. Just how deep could it be? That’s for you to guess. How many of these top free agents will sign extensions?

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Minnesota Wild Extend Eric Staal

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Eric Staal didn’t get moved by the Minnesota Wild today despite being an unrestricted free agent at the end of the season, and now we know why. Bob McKenzie of TSN reports that Staal has signed a two-year extension with the Wild that will carry a $3.25MM average annual value. That will actually represent a slight reduction in average salary for Staal, who is in the last season of a three-year $10.5MM deal.

A $6.5MM guarantee for Staal immediately strikes as an extremely team-friendly deal, given that he recorded 42 goals during the 2017-18 season. Though that number has come down this year, Staal is still likely to finish as a 50+ point center this season. There were several reports of teams showing interest in Staal over the last few days, but the veteran forward had expressed his desire to stay in Minnesota. The new contract will include a modified no-trade clause.

Even at the reasonable price however, this contract does seem at odds with what the Wild have done over the last few weeks. GM Paul Fenton has made it clear he intends on changing the makeup of the team, trading Nino Niederreiter, Charlie Coyle and today Mikael Granlund. In each move Fenton has brought back a relatively young forward, but the team now looks like it might be heading towards more of a retooling period than one of real Stanley Cup contention. Even in a down year Staal likely could have brought back a substantial return on the trade market, especially when looking at the packages brought back by other centers like Kevin Hayes and Matt Duchene.

Staal ranked #19 among our Midseason UFA Power Rankings, but now won’t have to deal with the process that took him to Minnesota in the first place. The former Stanley Cup Champion with the Carolina Hurricanes is closing in on 1,000 career points and should get there with the Wild next season.

Snapshots: Staal, Brassard, Stars

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Wild center Eric Staal is expected to be on the move in the next 48 hours but it appears that’s not his preference.  Speaking with Sarah McLellan of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune, the veteran indicated that he’d like to remain with Minnesota and even had his agent communicate that preference earlier in the season:

I’ve felt like it’s been a good fit for me, and I’ve enjoyed playing here. This is an organization that wants to win and will do whatever it takes to win, and you can’t ask for more than that as a player. You’re just a piece and a part of that, but it’s been fun. But whatever will happen will happen.

The 34-year-old has had an up-and-down season and just snapped an 11-game goalless drought on Friday night against Detroit.  However, he has already reached the 40-point mark and would be an interesting addition for a team looking for a middle-six upgrade down the middle.  The Wild appear now to be sellers so there’s a good chance he’ll be on the move.  Staal has a ten-team no-trade clause and has a $3.5MM cap hit.

Other news and notes from around the NHL:

  • Panthers center Derick Brassard is expected to be scratched today against Los Angeles in anticipation of a trade, notes George Richards of The Athletic (Twitter link). Florida only acquired him at the beginning of the month but as they’re well out of a playoff spot and the 31-year-old is a pending free agent, it’s not surprising that they’re going to be looking to move him already.  Brassard has struggled considerably this season with just 19 points in 50 games so it’s quite unlikely that Florida will come close to getting what the Senators got for Brassard at the deadline last year, a package that involved a first-round pick.
  • After adding Ben Lovejoy earlier today, it appears the Stars are finished tinkering with their back end. Speaking with reporters, including Matthew DeFranks of the Dallas Morning News, GM Jim Nill stated that he’s finished adding to the back end and has shifted his focus towards adding some scoring depth.  Dallas also added Jamie Oleksiak late last month and it appears they’ll be sticking with their defense-by-committee approach the rest of the way.  One player that they’re not likely to get back is Stephen Johns.  He has missed the entire year with concussion-like symptoms but Nill indicated (via Sean Shapiro of The Athletic on Twitter) that they expect that he will not play this season.

Deadline Primer: Carolina Hurricanes

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With the trade deadline just days away, we continue our look at the situation for each team over the coming weeks.  Where do they stand, what do they need to do, and what assets do they have to fill those needs?  As we continue with the Metropolitan Division, here is a look at the Carolina Hurricanes.

In less than 100 hours, the 2019 NHL Trade Deadline will come and go. While there are many deals still to be made, most teams have at least decided if they are buying, selling, or sitting out at the deadline. Perhaps the one team still waiting to make that call are the Carolina Hurricanes, and for good reason.

Tuesday night was a rough result for the Hurricanes. The team fell to the non-playoff New York Rangers, while the Pittsburgh Penguins and Montreal Canadiens both picked up wins. Carolina now trails both of those teams by three points, while the Columbus Blue Jackets occupy the final wild card spot with a one-point lead and a game in hand on the Hurricanes. Despite their strong play of late, Carolina looks like the first team out in the Eastern Conference right now. Of course, that can change before the deadline. The ‘Canes have a winnable match-up tonight against the Florida Panthers, followed by a tougher test against the Dallas Stars on Saturday. How they perform, as well as the results for the Blue Jackets, Penguins, and Canadiens, before Monday will inform their deadline decision.

Carolina holds the NHL’s longest playoff drought of nine years and desperately would like to make the playoffs. At the same time, they are a young team who could really use the return on any trade assets if the postseason doesn’t look realistic. It’s a difficult choice to make, but where they sit in the playoff race after the next few days could cause them to lean one way or another or, perhaps the most likely outcome, no way at all.

Record

31-23-6, fifth in the Metropolitan Division

Deadline Status

TBD

Deadline Cap Space

$76.26MM in full-season cap hit, 1/3 used salary cap retention slots, 43/50 contracts per CapFriendly

Upcoming Draft Picks

2019: CAR 1st, BUF 2nd, CAR 2nd, CAR 3rd, CAR 4th, CAR 5th, CAR 6th, CGY 6th, BOS 7th
2020: CAR 1st, CAR 2nd, BUF 3rd, CAR 3rd, CAR 4th, CAR 5th, BUF 6th, CAR 6th, CAR 7th

Trade Chips

With their status at the deadline still so uncertain, chances are the Hurricanes will be involved in both the buyers’ and sellers’ markets, but could very well choose to do nothing at all. For discussion’s sake though, let’s say the Hurricanes decide to sell. Of the two options, selling is more probable as there are no pieces that Carolina could move that would automatically end their push for the postseason. The one player who would certainly be on the move is impending UFA power forward Micheal Ferland. Ferland, acquired from the Calgary Flames in the off-season, has been excellent in Carolina and is in fact on pace for a career high in points. However, Ferland seems destined to test the free agent market and the recent acquisition of Nino Niederreiter has made his departure manageable. Carolina would miss Ferland’s contributions down the stretch this season, but are prepared for life without him and would likely land a nice return if they chose to trade him. Several contenders are in search of grit and offense at this time of the year and Ferland checks both boxes.

Ferland is the only impending UFA skater thought to have any value on the trade market. Captain Justin Williams is not available and Greg McKegg has been a serviceable player that is more valuable to the ’Canes as a depth option than any low-end return might be. However, goaltenders are a different story. Both Curtis McElhinney and Petr Mrazek are impending free agents and both have performed well this season, especially McElhinney. With Scott Darling still under contract next year, young Alex Nedeljkovic in consideration, and a strong goalie free agent class, it’s unclear if McElhinney or Mrazek will be back in Raleigh next season. With that in mind, the Hurricanes may be willing to part with one or the other at the deadline if the right offer presents itself. It goes without saying that if the team could move Darling, they would.

Elsewhere in the lineup, there continues to be speculation that the Hurricanes would like to deal from a position of strength on defense. With Dougie Hamilton, Justin Faulk, Brett Pesce, and Trevor van Riemsdyk on the roster, Carolina is flush with talented right-shot defenders. Chances are one will be dealt at some point soon. However, it will be in a hockey trade, with the ‘Canes getting a top-nine forward back in return. Such trades are uncommon at the deadline, so don’t hold out hope that the team will be make such a move before the off-season.

What if the Hurricanes are buyers? Then the list of trade chips is a slightly more extensive. Charlotte Checkers defensemen Haydn Fleury and Roland McKeown continue to wait patiently for roles in Carolina that may never come and the time may have arrived for the Hurricanes to move them in the right deal. The same could be said for another pair of impending RFA’s, forwards Andrew Poturalski and Saku Maenalanen, both of whom have been productive in the minors but underutilized at the top level. This is just the tip of the iceberg of what is an impressive pipeline for the Hurricanes, but as they’re not expected to be major buyers, top names like Martin Necas, Janne Kuokkanen, Jake Bean, and Adam Fox are likely untouchable. Carolina has plenty of draft picks to peddle as well, rather than moving their top prospects

Five Players To Watch For: F Micheal Ferland, G Curtis McElhinney, D Haydn Fleury, D Roland McKeown, F Saku Maenalanen

Team Needs

1) Top-Six Forward: It’s no secret that the Hurricanes desire a top-six forward. The team was in on William Nylander for months before he re-signed with the Toronto Maple Leafs (they could revisit that option this summer) and eventually swung a deal with the Minnesota Wild for Nino Niederreiter. However, scoring is still an issue. This season, only the Dallas Stars and New York Islanders have scored fewer goals per game than Carolina among teams in playoff position. The offense is stagnant at times and has been carried by Sebastian Aho and Teuvo Teravainen all year. Looking ahead, the likely loss of Micheal Ferland could further diminish scoring next season. Although the pipeline is loaded with capable forward in Carolina, the team needs a long-term top-six addition. It remains to be seen if such a player is available at the deadline this year. Expect the ’Canes to kick the tires on Jonathan Huberdeau and Mike Hoffman, as well as the likes of Jason Zucker or Adam Henrique.

2) Value Forwards: If Carolina decides to buy in to playoff run this year, but the prices are too high on a long-term forward acquisition, the team would be better off trying to wait out the market to add some bargains than give up considerable future pieces for top rentals. For example, the idea of an Eric Staal return is great, but not an affordable option for Carolina. Instead, players like Richard Panik, Sven Andrighetto, or Alex Chiasson would come at a much lesser cost and would be less risky acquisitions in light of Carolina’s current playoff position, but would help fill some gaps in the lineup and create some more offense. The Hurricanes may very well stand pat at the deadline, but making even just a minor addition up front could go a long way.

Five Key Stories: 2/11/19 – 2/17/19

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With the trade deadline now just over a week away, activity has started to pick up around the NHL.  Rumors of major trades continue, but so far just a few deals have been completed.

Lafreniere To Stay In CHL: Potential 2020 first-overall pick Alexis Lafreniere set the record straight after rumors were circulating that the 17-year-old may opt to sign a contract overseas and follow the footsteps of Auston Matthews who played his draft year in the Swiss NLA. Lafreniere’s agent, Momentum Hockey Agency, released a statement making it clear that while the young talent did look into playing overseas, he and his family decided to stay in the CHL with Rimouski Oceanic of the QMJHL where he’s played the last two years, having totaled 74 goals and 172 points in 110 games. At 6-foot-1, he already has the size and proven ability to play in a professional league, but he will stay put for one more year.

Pastrnak, Maatta Injured: The Boston Bruins and Pittsburgh Penguins each took a hit to their team when each team lost a significant player to injury. The Boston Bruins lost David Pastrnak for a minimum of two weeks after he underwent thumb surgery on Feb. 12 after he fell at a team function. The Bruins, who are fighting with the Toronto Maple Leafs for the second spot in the Atlantic Division won’t be helped even if its for a few weeks without Pastrnak, who is the team’s leading scorer with 31 goals as well as 66 points, second on the team. The Penguins also took a hit on their blueline when they placed Olli Maatta on injured reserve with an upper-body injury that would sideline him indefinitely. The team was getting back Justin Schultz from injury at the time, but the team was looking forward to getting back a fully healthy defense, which now they won’t have for some time. To make matters worse, the team had recently dealt away Jamie Oleksiak to make room for Schultz, leaving the team with a lack of depth all of the sudden.

Wild Owner Approves Selling: Just hours after Minnesota Wild head coach Bruce Boudreau guaranteed that the Wild would make the playoffs, Wild owner Craig Leipold announced that he has given general manager Paul Fenton the green light to sell off some of the team’s players in advance of the upcoming trade deadline. With the team dropping four straight and having a 2-5-3 record in their last 10 games, it might be time for Fenton to make his mark on this team after being hired this summer to fix the team’s inability to advance deep into the playoffs. Among the numerous players who could be shipped off include pending unrestricted free agent Eric Staal as well as Charlie Coyle, who still has one more year on his deal. There are also a number of bottom six players who could be moved as well, including Eric Fehr, Matt Hendricks, Brad Hunt, Matt Bartkowski and Anthony Bitetto.

Philadelphia’s Hart Gets A Mentor: The Philadelphia Flyers finally consummated a rumored trade in which it acquired Edmonton Oilers goaltender Cam Talbot for Anthony Stolarz. While Edmonton freed themselves some much needed cap room as Talbot was making $4.17MM, the Flyers got themselves what they hope will be a long-term veteran who can mentor their prized rookie Carter Hart for the next few years. Talbot, who was already familiar with Hart before, waived his no-movement clause to come to Philadelphia and made it clear that he was open to signing a new contract before July 1 to remain with the team.

Ottawa Intends To Trade Duchene: The Ottawa Senators have stopped in their attempts to sign Matt Duchene to an extension and have indicated to all teams that they intend to trade the 26-year-old center. According to reports, the Senators have shifted their focus of signing Duchene to making a full effort to locking up Mark Stone to an extension. Stone may have a day or two to make up his mind on whether he is willing to sign an extension or he too, will be made available to the league with the intention of selling them off at the trade deadline. Already there has been rumors that the Nashville Predators, the Columbus Blue Jackets and the New York Islanders have expressed serious interest in acquiring the center with more suitors likely to join in before the upcoming trade deadline on Feb. 25.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Ottawa Senators Plan To Trade Matt Duchene

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A “decision” on the trade plans of the Ottawa Senators for impending free agent forwards Matt Duchene, Mark Stone, and Ryan Dzingel has been anticipated all week long. With a week left before deadline day, the Senators have to be listening to offers for all three at this point, but there had been no word of extension talks ending with any of the standout out UFA’s. That is until now. According to several sources, for one reason or another the Senators have made the decision to trade Duchene.

Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman got the ball rolling late last night, when he reported that Ottawa had shifted their focus from re-signing Duchene to re-signing Stone. Friedman wrote that the Senators and Stone had re-engaged in extension talks over the last few days after abandoning talks with Duchene. He stated that Duchene is now available to all interested teams. This morning, TSN’s Darren Dreger reiterated the point by stating that unless there is an unexpected change in the mindset from Duchene’s camp, the center will be traded. He continued that Stone has bought himself another day or two, but that a decision should be made on the star winger soon as well. Colleague Pierre LeBrun followed that up by stating that several teams have already checked in on Duchene. LeBrun believes that the Nashville Predators, who have been interested in Duchene for several years, and the Columbus Blue Jackets, who are expected to target the Senators’ rentals as Artemi Panarin replacement options, are the early leaders in trade talks.

Of the three Ottawa free agents, many expected Duchene to be the most likely to re-sign, due to family ties to the area. It has also been speculated that there is a chance Duchene could be traded and still sign with the Senators as a free agent, giving him a chance to win a title this year and giving Ottawa some nice pieces to help jump-start their rebuild. However, the reason Duchene originally wanted to be traded by the Colorado Avalanche last year was so that he did not have to endure a rebuild. With that in mind, it was always a strong possibility that Duchene’s days in Ottawa were numbered. Now that he is officially on the trade block, the dominoes could begin to fall. If Duchene is available due to a breakdown in contract talks, that could also hurt the chances that Stone would opt for an extension in Ottawa. Additionally, Dzingel continues to be an afterthought compared to Duchene and Stone, which could result in his departure, unless talks with Stone end soon as well and he becomes the priority. Outside of the Senators organization, Duchene’s market will also dictate the price and interested teams for centers like Kevin Hayes, Eric Staal, and Derick Brassard, while the Blue Jackets’ involvement could heat up trade talks surrounding Panarin and set the market for all rentals. With a week to go, things are finally starting to heat up on the rumor mill.

Minnesota Wild Owner Approves Of Seller Status At Deadline

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In direct opposition to comments made earlier today by head coach Bruce Boudreau, who guaranteed his team would make the playoffs, the owner and general manager of the Minnesota Wild have made other plans. The Athletic’s Michael Russo reports that owner Craig Leipold has given first-year GM Paul Fenton the “green light” to move roster players before the trade deadline given the team’s current slump.

Russo writes that Leipold and Fenton met yesterday to discuss the state of the team. Minnesota has just one win in it’s past seven games since losing captain Mikko Koivu to season-ending injury and has slipped into the thick of the “turtle derby” for the final playoff spot in the Western Conference. The Wild have fallen significantly behind the Dallas Stars and St. Louis Blues in the division and now hold on to the second wild card slot by a mere two points over the Vancouver Canucks with a game in hand. Behind Vancouver at 57 points sit the Arizona Coyotes, who are working toward full health, and the Colorado Avalanche, with their potent top line, both at 55 points and a game in hand on Minnesota. There’s also the Chicago Blackhawks at 55 points and even games and the Edmonton Oilers at 53 with a game in hand and a determination to make the postseason. The Wild are by no means guaranteed a playoff spot, even if they keep their current roster together or even make a minor addition or two, as an onslaught of other teams are within striking distance. In light of this situation, Leipold has given Fenton his approval to improve the Wild for the future if he can, even if that means hurting the team’s playoff odds.

So what exactly does this mean for Minnesota? Russo does not expect sweeping changes. He feels that Leipold and the Wild brass still feel that their Stanley Cup window is open, but without Koivu and Matt Dumba, the team’s odds of even making it to the postseason and through the first round are slim, never mind finally winning a title. The core players are likely safe, but Fenton will use his newly-granted flexibility to test the trade waters on his impending free agents and some other expendable pieces. Eric Staal is the player that will jump out to most; the respected veteran is in the final year of his contract and could help many contenders down the middle. Bottom-six forwards Eric Fehr, Matt Hendricks, and Matt Read and depth defenders Brad Hunt, Anthony Bitetto, Nate Prosser, and Matt Bartkowski are all impending UFA’s and should all be up for grabs as well. Among signed players, rumor mill regular Charlie Coyle and buried bruiser J.T. Brown are also obvious names to watch. Russo quickly examines the trade status of much of the roster and settles on Greg Pateryn and Marcus Foligno as possible outside-the-box casualties as well.

There isn’t going to be a fire sale in Minnesota, but no longer are the Wild going to be considered buyers. Perhaps a strong showing by the team in the six games between now and the deadline – four of which are against non-playoff teams – will even convince Fenton to stand pat and hope they can hold on to a wild card spot. However, if Minnesota cannot shake this slump, then Staal and any of the other marketable players mentioned are likely to be gone ahead of the deadline. Perhaps that causes the Wild to miss the playoffs, perhaps it doesn’t, but when the odds are 50/50 as is, the team may as well get what they can for expiring and expendable pieces.

Trade Rumors: Panarin, Staal, Dzingel, Clifford

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For all the talk of an Artemi Panarin trade, The Athletic’s Pierre LeBrun cautions that the Columbus Blue Jackets keeping the star forward as an “own rental” is a very real possibility. Lebrun believes that it is all a cost-benefit analysis for the team, “because there’s almost no chance GM Jarmo Kekalainen simply sells off Panarin without also trying to replace him in some fashion via a separate transaction.” The Blue Jackets are on a four-game winning streak and, with a win last night over the Washington Capitals, leapfrogged their rivals in points percentage to put them on pace to finish second in the Metropolitan Division. Columbus is still searching for it’s first playoff series win in franchise history and is not going to give up all hope of that accomplishment this season when they have played so well all season and could earn a home ice advantage in the first round. As LeBrun notes, that means that if the Blue Jackets do in fact trade away Panarin, they would only do so knowing they could acquire another player of similar ability for a favorable price. LeBrun believes that Kekalainen continues to monitor the situation in Ottawa, as Senators forwards Matt Duchene or Mark Stone would be the most likely targets. However, if the Senators’ asking price for either Duchene or Stone is too similar to the return on a Panarin trade, the Blue Jackets lack incentive to shake up their roster for only a minor gain in trade capital. Most likely, this means that Panarin could stay in Columbus as an “own rental” rather than be traded if, of course, the Blue Jackets remain hot through the deadline, but also if the demand from Ottawa is more of a flip of trade assets from a Panarin deal. If the Blue Jackets cannot walk away from the deadline with both an immediate replacement from Panarin and significant future piece, it’s possible that the star scorer isn’t going anywhere until this summer.

  • LeBrun also touches on another team having to tackle a cost-benefit analysis. The Minnesota Wild are in a tough spot; the team has been in playoff position all year, but have just one win in their past seven games since the season-ending injury to captain Mikko Koivu. At this rate, the Wild are going to miss the playoffs, as the Vancouver Canucks, Colorado Avalanche, and Arizona Coyotes are right on their tail. However, even a slight improvement could be enough for Minnesota to clinch the final wild card spot. But does that mean they shouldn’t also be sellers? LeBrun writes that without considerable improvement before the deadline, first-year GM Paul Fenton will need to seriously consider trading his most valuable rental piece, Eric Staal. Staal’s absence, especially in light of the loss of Koivu, would likely see the team fall out of playoff position. Yet, his presence likely isn’t enough to get them through the first round anyway. For what it’s worth, LeBrun adds that Staal has not made it easy on the Wild to move him. The veteran center’s trade protection includes a ten-team no-trade list, which LeBrun reports is primarily contenders. This could force Fenton’s hand when it comes to making a decision on Staal. However, even if Staal is open to a move, the team will have to consider the repercussions on their season. The return on the trade in future value would have to be worth the immense risk of missing the postseason, even with little hope of advancing.
  • In updating TSN’s Trade Bait List, Frank Seravalli writes that interest is picking up on Ottawa Senators forward Ryan Dzingel. While the media, and seemingly the Senators themselves, have been primarily focused of Matt Duchene and Mark Stone, Seravalli notes that Dzingel is enjoying a career year and teams are taking notice. With his trade value at a new high, his cap hit still low, and no sign of an extension, Dzingel is certainly on the block and is a valuable asset and Seravalli feels that the chatter points toward a trade. He has moved Dzingel up to No. 19 on the list.
  • Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reports that Los Angeles Kings forward Kyle Clifford is a person of interest for the Toronto Maple Leafs and the two sides discussed Clifford during the recent Jake Muzzin negotiations. Toronto could go back to Clifford in their pursuit of a physical, bottom-six forward before the deadline. Like the reported interest in Luke Glendening, the only problem for Toronto when it comes to Clifford is term and salary. Clifford has just one year remaining at $1.6MM, but even that might be difficult for the cap-crunched Maple Leafs to spend on a probable fourth-liner. It remains a good potential fit, but the Leafs will likely look for pure rentals before returning to Clifford, unless the Kings are willing to retain salary.

Minnesota Wild, Eric Staal Have Not Held Extension Talks

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In terms of rental centers that might be available at the deadline, most of the focus has been placed on just a few names. Matt Duchene, Kevin Hayes and Derick Brassard have been speculated on ad nauseam, but a new name may just enter the conversation before long. Eric Staal of the Minnesota Wild opened up to Michael Russo of The Athletic (subscription required) for a superb feature that examines how his play has been affected by the lack of contract talks this year, and how the veteran forward knows that the next few games might decide whether he is playing for the Wild or someone else after the deadline. The biggest takeaway from the piece is that Staal and the Wild have still had no conversations at all regarding a potential extension, despite him being in the final season of a bargain three-year contract and scheduled to hit unrestricted free agency on July 1st.

Though it’s obviously impossible to know just how much a team would pay up for Staal’s services down the stretch, Russo asked a few front office executives who all believed that the Wild would not be able to secure a first-round pick for the 34-year old center. Any asking price though is contingent on what the Wild do over the next few weeks, since they currently sit in third place in the Central Division and would be going to the playoffs if the season ended today. Like other teams over the last few years though, perhaps the Wild know that even if they do make the playoffs they’re not going to be able to navigate the field of powerhouses in the Western Conference. The team would be looking at a first-round matchup with the Nashville Predators at the moment, and getting through both Nashville and the Winnipeg Jets seems almost impossible at the moment.

This isn’t a situation exactly like Columbus, where the Blue Jackets must make a decision about whether holding onto Artemi Panarin through the deadline is worth it. Panarin’s potential return through trade would be enormous, and it seems less and less likely that he wants to re-sign with the Blue Jackets at the end of the season. Staal is open about his desire to stay in Minnesota if possible, and if the potential return is just say, a second-round pick, it’s hard to imagine Fenton slapping a for sale sticker on his first-line center.

Still, there’s a reason why Staal still found himself in our Top-20 Midseason UFA Power Rankings. The veteran center brings almost everything that a contender like the Jets, Boston Bruins or Pittsburgh Penguins would be looking for at the deadline, and should have several suitors chasing him in free agency if he reaches it. A recent resurgence has him with 36 points through 49 games this season, just after recording 42 goals and 76 points for the Wild in 2017-18. While a first-round pick at this exact moment may be out of reach, remember how the Bruins ended up paying a lofty price to secure another veteran goal scorer last season. Rick Nash cost Boston a first-round pick and prospect Ryan Lindgren, even if the Rangers did take some salary back in Ryan Spooner and Matt Beleskey. If an arms race does ramp up closer to the deadline, Staal might be the ticket to recouping some of the draft picks the Wild have sent packing over the last few seasons.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

2019 Midseason UFA Power Rankings: 11-20

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With the halfway point of the season now behind us and the trade deadline fast approaching, the All-Star break seemed like the perfect time to take a preliminary look at the UFA Class of 2019. Here is the first half of our top-20 rankings, based on votes from writers Gavin Lee, Brian La Rose, Zach Leach and Holger Stolzenberg. We’ll run numbers 1-10 as well as an honorable mention group early next week.

11. Brock Nelson, New York Islanders — If this list had come out at the end of last season, there would be little chance that Nelson would rank as high as he does now. After posting an extremely disappointing 35-point season in 2017-18, Nelson has come back to life under new head coach Barry Trotz and already has 16 goals and 31 points through 49 games. The big center has seen increased minutes since the departure of John Tavares and is thriving in a two-way role, making him an easy fit for almost any team across the league. Nelson will still be just 27 when the 2019-20 season starts and likely coming off a career year. Like the other Islanders on the list, the team will try to retain his services if possible.

12. Jake Gardiner, Toronto Maple Leafs — There are few more divisive figures in Toronto than Gardiner, who has drawn boos from the home crowd at times this season because of his high-risk style. Still, the 28-year old defenseman is logging nearly 22 minutes a night and is on pace for another 40-point season. The analytically-minded may point to his excellent possession metrics and say he should be ranked higher on this list, but his defensive ability and handedness may somewhat stifle his market. Still, defensemen are always in demand and he’ll have no trouble finding a multi-year deal if Toronto can’t find room to fit him into their crowded salary structure.

13. Wayne Simmonds, Philadelphia Flyers — The do-it-all winger is one of the biggest names on the trade market as we approach the deadline, meaning he very well might not make it to free agency if an acquiring team can convince him to stay. Simmonds adds a little bit of everything a team would want, mixing toughness and physicality with real skill around the net and a history of producing on the powerplay. Set to turn 31 before the next season begins and with a lot of miles already on his body, there may be some who are scared off by the dropping point totals the last few years and refuse to give Simmonds a long-term deal.

14. Gustav Nyquist, Detroit Red Wings — Just when you thought you had Nyquist figured out as a 40-50 point winger, he breaks out in the first half for Detroit with 43 points in 51 games. On track to blow past his career highs of 36 assists and 54 points, there will be several suitors that believe he can be that missing secondary scoring piece that costs a little less than the top names. Nyquist has always had a ton of skill and ability, but is this season’s performance just a mirage formed by opportunity and lack of playoff expectations?

15. Jordan Eberle, New York Islanders — It’s something of the opposite story for Eberle, who has failed this season to meet the lofty totals that he has reached with such consistency in the past. After six consecutive seasons with at least 20 goals (not counting the shortened 2012-13 campaign in which he tallied 16 in just 48 games), Eberle is at risk of not reaching that mark in 2018-19. With just 11 goals and 23 points in the first half, perhaps it is simply a buy-in to the more defensive structure of Trotz’ new-look Islanders. He’ll be 29 next season, but the idea of 30-goal upside and a history of clutch performances will certainly intrigue teams all around the league.

16. Ryan Dzingel, Ottawa Senators — While the Senators have turned into a circus over the last year given all the off-ice incidents, it’s easy to overlook the performances from some of their underrated players. Dzingel is the poster boy for that after a 23-goal season went almost unnoticed last year. This year he’s back at it with a little more fanfare, and now has 20 goals and 38 points through his first 48 games. All eyes are on Mark Stone and Matt Duchene at the trade deadline, but if the Senators don’t get Dzingel under contract he could be a valuable addition for any team. The fact that he’ll only turn 27 in March will be appealing to many teams looking for a cheaper option in the summer, but there’s no doubt Dzingel will get a raise on the $1.8MM cap hit he carries this year.

17. Semyon Varlamov, Colorado Avalanche — At the end of the 2014 season, Varlamov looked like he was going to take over the goaltending position in the NHL. He had just finished second in Vezina Trophy voting and fourth for the Hart after going 41-14-6 and posting a .927 save percentage. The Avalanche had certainly found their goaltender—at least so they thought. Since then Varlamov has battled inconsistency and this season has just a .908 save percentage through 31 starts. Colorado has Philipp Grubauer in place and look like they’ll move on, making a soon to be 31-year old Varlamov one of the most interesting names in free agency. Does a team trust him enough to hand over the starting role on a multi-year deal, or will he have to prove himself again in a tandem?

18. Micheal Ferland, Carolina Hurricanes — Ferland had the fortuitous opportunity to get his career on track beside Johnny Gaudreau and Sean Monahan in Calgary before eventually getting moved to the Hurricanes as part of the blockbuster deal last summer, and now faces some tough questions about his future. It looks like the Hurricanes aren’t going to be able to convince him to stay, meaning he’ll head into free agency as sort of a question mark. Though he has 13 goals on the season, Ferland has tickled the twine just twice in his last 20 games dating back to November and has dealt with concussion issues. While he’s an extremely attractive asset at the deadline because of his low cost, investing big money in him this summer could be dangerous despite his relative youth.

19. Eric Staal, Minnesota Wild — It may say 34 years old on Staal’s birth certificate, but he hasn’t played like a declining asset since arriving in Minnesota. The long-time Carolina captain scored 65 and 76 points in his first two years with the Wild and is on pace for another 60-point performance this season. That kind of production from a center long known for his capable defensive play is extremely valuable, though his age will obvious cause teams to pause before handing out the dough. Another trade deadline candidate if the Wild fall out of the playoffs, he’ll have to perform better down the stretch than he did for the New York Rangers in 2016 if he wants to secure one last big payday.

20. Jakob Silfverberg, Anaheim Ducks — It’s been a tough year for almost every Ducks forward and Silfverberg is no exception. With just 19 points through his first 42 games and now dealing with an injury, there’s a chance he may post his lowest point total since 2013-14 when he played just 52 games. Still, a winger that earns Selke votes every season and can chip in around 20 goals isn’t worth nothing and there should be plenty of interested parties come July 1st. A strong second half by the Ducks or a new address at the trade deadline could really give Silfverberg’s market a boost, especially given his history as an excellent playoff performer.

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