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Stretch Run Storylines: Nashville Predators

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As things stand, the NHL is planning to have games resume at some point over the coming weeks.  Assuming the regular season continues, there will be plenty of things to watch for over the stretch run.  Over the coming weeks, PHR will examine the top stretch run storylines for each team.  We continue our look at the Central Division with Nashville.

It’s been an inconsistent season for the Nashville Predators, who many felt could challenge for the Central Division title this season. Instead, the team struggled out of the gate, which included a six-game losing streak in November and by early January, general manager David Poile made a decision to let go of long-time coach Peter Laviolette and associate coach Kevin McCarthy after the team had a 19-15-7 record. The team replaced him with recently fired coach John Hynes, who took over and saw the team fight its way back into the final wild card spot, but with continued inconsistent play and several teams breathing down their necks, the team will have to fight to remain in the playoffs.

Questionable Offense

When looking at the team’s top four point producers so far this year, the Nashville Predators have two defenseman in their top four, including defenseman Roman Josi, who leads the team in scoring by far with 65 points this season. That is fine when the team runs its offense through its defense. However, the team’s first line players, however, aren’t having great seasons, which has only made things more challenging.

While there is still plenty of time left, assuming the regular season resumes, Filip Forsberg looks to be heading for a career-low in goals. After never posting lower than 26 goals in his tenure with Nashville, the 25-year-old has just 21 goals and 48 points and still hasn’t been able to take his impressive game to that next level and develop into the star that many people had envisioned.

To make matters worse, Poile went out of his way to upgrade his defense by trading away P.K. Subban in the offseason and using that new-found money to sign center Matt Duchene to give the team a second dominant center. Duchene was expected to play the role of a major point producer after posting a 31-goal, 70-point season last year between Ottawa and Columbus. However, that hasn’t translated in his first year in Nashville as he has just 13 goals and 42 points through 66 games.

If Nashville wants to ensure a trip to the playoffs and maybe even surviving a round or two, the Predators must get more consistent play from their forwards. Even Viktor Arvidsson, who has averaged 30 goals for the three previous years has just 15 goals this season.

Goaltending Issues

A year ago, there were plenty of people that would have referred to the Predators’ goaltending tandem of Pekka Rinne and Juuse Saros as one of the best in the league. However, that hasn’t been the case so far this year.

The 36-year-old Rinne started a new two-year, $10MM deal this season, but few expected a major drop-off after he posted a 2.42 GAA and a .918 save percentage in 56 appearances last year. Unfortunately for the Predators, those numbers took a nosedive. In 36 games this season, Rinne has a 3.17 GAA and a .895 save percentage, which has allowed Saros to take an even bigger role, while also leaving questions on how wise it was to give Rinne two more years.

After a slow start, Saros has been much more successful and has taken on the starting role, having appeared in 16 games since February.  The 27-year-old netminder has a pedestrian 2.70 GAA in 40 appearances (a career high), but also has a .914 save percentage, winning 10 of those appearances.

The team needs Saros to continue his conversion into the team’s everyday starter, but also needs to hope that the break rejuvenates Rinne, who the team needs to bounce back and take some of the responsibility off Saros.

Coaching Transition

Often when teams fire their coaches at midseason, like the Predators did with Laviolette in January, the team hopes the change will inspire the team to take their game up a notch and show they are as talented as management had assumed at the start of the season. So far Hynes has the team at 16-11-1, only a slight improvement, yet while the team has been inconsistent since Hynes has taken over, Nashville has three three-game and three two-game winning streaks this year.

One would have to imagine that the layoff could benefit Hynes more than anything as he has more time to study tape and adjust his coaching techniques and lines to improve the team when they get back on the ice.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Poll: Can The Predators Make The Playoffs?

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Matt Duchene, the Nashville Predator’s blockbuster free agent addition of this past summer, remains very confident in his new team, despite how their season is going. Duchene, in the first season on a seven-year, $56MM contract, is one of a number of under-performing players on the Nashville roster. The team has not played up to expectations this year, which has already cost head coach Peter Laviolette his job and now threatens to cost the team a trip to the postseason. Yet, Duchene believes the team has what it takes to turn their season around and qualify. He told the media on Monday that he feels that Nashville is a playoff team and, to double down, he does not think they need to make a move ahead of the forthcoming NHL Trade Deadline.

It’s a mighty big prognostication from a player who has been part of the problem and not the solution for the Predators this year. Duchene is on pace for just 56 points this season, which would be among the worst years of his career, when he was supposed to be shine on a talented Nashville roster. He’s not alone; Filip Forsberg (59 points), Ryan Johansen (47), Viktor Arvidsson (40), Kyle Turris (36), and Mikael Granlund (30) are all on pace to finish well below what has come to be expected of them. On top of that, veteran starter Pekka Rinne and young backup Juuse Saros are both experiencing the worst campaigns of their careers. Nearly all of Nashville’s key pieces outside of Roman Josi have disappointed to this point in the season, leaving them in the basement of the Central Division and among the worst teams in the league in a number of categories.

Yet, maybe Duchene has a point. A closer look would imply that perhaps Nashville is more than their current last-place position in the Central Division. With substantial games in hand on Minnesota, Chicago, and Winnipeg, the Predators’ .543 points percentage before Monday night’s game is actually fourth-best in the division. Beyond that, while the Preds currently trail the Vegas Golden Knights by six points for the final wild card spot in the Western Conference, they are really just .005 points percentage points behind. Nashville actually seems to be well-positioned to compete for a spot. Also strange is the seeming lack of correlation between the number of underachieving core producers on the Predators and the actual state of their offense. At 3.30 goals for per game, the team is tied for seventh-best in the league in offense so far this season, even if only Josi is among the top scorers at his position.

With all that said, there is no hiding the fact that the Predators have been poor defensively and on special teams this season, their goaltending situation is shaky at best, and their best forwards have not risen to the occasion all year. Will the returns of Ryan Ellis and Colton Sissons be enough to boost the team? Can their struggling stars turn things around without help?

We already know how Duchene would vote, but what say you? Can the Predators make the playoffs?

[Mobile users click here to vote]

Blue Jackets Notes: Recent Surge, Bjorkstrand, Wennberg

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No team in the NHL is hotter than the Columbus Blue Jackets in the new year. Columbus is 8-2-0 in their past ten games, which includes three shutouts and a pair of wins against the Boston Bruins. The team has now crept their way into the top wild card spot in the Eastern Conference, jumping ahead of the likes of Philadelphia, Carolina, and Toronto. Even more impressive is that the Blue Jackets have made this run while missing many of their best players: starting goaltender Joonas Korpisalo, top scorer Cam Atkinson and fellow forwards Oliver Bjorkstrand, Josh Anderson, and Alexandre Texier, and defensemen Ryan Murray and Dean Kukan. With those players on their way back to health – Atkinson made his return on Thursday – one would think that Columbus has a chance to not only sustain their success, but possibly even improve upon it.

Yet, the question then becomes whether the team can really buy in to this season after the events of 2018-19. Last year, the Blue Jackets went all in, trading away Anthony Duclair, two top forward prospects, a first-round pick, two second-round picks, and three additional picks to load up with rentals Matt Duchene, Ryan Dzingel, Adam McQuaid, and Keith Kinkaid. The team also opted not to move their own impending free agents in Artemi Panarin and Sergei Bobrovsky. Although Columbus stunned the Tampa Bay Lightning with a first-round sweep, the first playoff series win in franchise history, they fell in the second round and lost each of those six free agents in the off-season. If the Blue Jackets are again in a position only to battle for a wild card spot down the stretch, can the team risk another season of lost prospects and draft capital? Only time will tell how long the team can continue this dominant stretch and what position they may be in by late next month, but another active trade deadline would be a difficult hit to the team’s pipeline.

  • Columbus’ best bet may be to depend on their internal options to get healthy and play to the best of their abilities. The team announced a step in the right direction today, as Bjorkstrand has been activated from the injured reserve and will return to action for the first time since December 22. Bjorkstrand is actually returning earlier than his expected four-to-six week timeline, healing quickly from broken ribs. Bjorkstrand was on pace for a career year prior to his injury, with 23 points in his first 36 games. The 24-year-old winger was embracing his increased responsibility and Columbus has to hope that he can continue to excel in his elevated role the rest of the year. With Bjorkstrand back, Kevin Stenlund is the odd man out, reassigned to the AHL.
  • If the Blue Jackets are to lean on their existing roster this season for a playoff run, another intriguing situation will be the trade status of Alexander Wennberg. Wennberg has been on the trade block since early last season and in the minds of many hockey pundits remains a player that Columbus would like to move. The young center has not lived up to the long-term extension the team signed him to back in 2017, which carries a $4.9MM cap hit for three more years beyond this season. However, as opposed to last season when Wennberg recorded only 25 points and was scratched a handful of games, Wennberg too has embraced his increased role in the wake of free agent departures and injuries this year. The 25-year-old has played in all but one game for the Blue Jackets, recording 20 points. This puts him on pace for 34 points on the year, a sharp uptick from last season. It also makes him a top-six scoring forward for the team so far this year. Can Columbus afford to move out a player in such an important role this year for only salary cap purposes when they are trying to make it back to the postseason?

West Notes: Predators, Hjalmarsson, Kuemper, Flames

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After adding Matt Duchene in free agency this summer, the Predators were expected to once again be one of the top teams in the Central Division.  However, that hasn’t come to fruition as Nashville is tied for last in the division (though they’ve played the fewest games in the conference).  Speaking with 104.5 The Zone (audio link), GM David Poile indicated that he’s “open for business” when it comes to the trade market and acknowledged that if things don’t turn around quickly, they could be sellers for the first time in quite a while.  When asked about the possibility of making a coaching change, Poile stated that replacing Peter Laviolette is “not in my game plan right now”.  Laviolette is in his sixth season with the team and they have made the playoffs in each year that he has been there.

More from the West:

  • Coyotes defenseman Niklas Hjalmarsson has resumed skating in a non-contact jersey, notes Richard Morin of the Arizona Republic. He has been out since suffering a broken fibula in their fourth game of the season.  GM John Chayka mentioned that there’s still no set timeline for his return but that he’s now more day-to-day than week-to-week.  Meanwhile, goaltender Darcy Kuemper has resumed skating on his own but it’s still uncertain if he’ll be cleared to play by the All-Star break.
  • While there isn’t an imminent trade on the horizon, Flames GM Brad Treliving told reporters, including Sportsnet’s Eric Francis, that he fully intends to use the cap room freed up by the Michael Frolik trade and went as far as to call that the return in the trade and not the fourth-round pick they received. Calgary didn’t retain any of his $4.3MM cap hit in the move which puts them with nearly $5MM in total cap room to work with between now and the deadline.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Nashville Predators

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Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2019-20 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Nashville Predators

Current Cap Hit: $80,165,476 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

D Dante Fabbro (two years, $925K)
F Rem Pitlick (one year, $925K)
F Eeli Tolvanen (two years, $894K)

Potential Bonuses

Tolvanen: $2.85MM
Fabbro: $850K

The team has a few players with entry-level contracts who could make an immediate impact. Fabbro is the obvious one, especially after the team traded away P.K. Subban to New Jersey in a cap-saving move. Fabbro, the team’s first-round pick in 2016, finally signed in late March after three seasons at Boston University, playing in four regular season games, followed by six playoff games, combining for one goal and two points in amongst those 10 games. Now with Subban gone, the team has to hope that Fabbro will be ready to immediately take over the open top-four spot in the team’s defense. If not the team could have some issues at that spot. The team also inked Pitlick, the team’s third-rounder in 2016, after three years at the University of Minnesota. After tallying 47 goals in three years, the team hopes that Pitlick can make his mark on the team immediately.

Tolvanen, who dominated in the KHL at 18 years of age, failed to make the Predators team last year and spent most of his season with the Milwaukee Admirals in the AHL, scoring 15 goals and 35 points in 58 games and will try to force his way into the Predators lineup this year with a good training camp.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F Mikael Granlund ($5.75MM, UFA)
F Craig Smith ($4.25MM, UFA)
D Roman Josi ($4MM, UFA)
D Dan Hamhuis ($1.25MM, UFA)
F Austin Watson ($1.1MM, UFA)
F Rocco Grimaldi ($1MM, UFA)
F Miikka Salomaki ($750K, UFA)
F Daniel Carr ($700K, UFA)
D Matt Irwin ($675K, UFA)
D Yannick Weber ($675K, UFA)
F Frederick Gaudreau ($667K, UFA)

The most well documented story is the Predators’ desire to lock up Josi to a long-term deal. The 29-year-old has proven to be an excellent defensive blueliner, but has also shown off quite a bit of offense, putting up 40 or more points for the past six seasons, including a 56-point performance last year. Josi has indicated that he wants to stay in Nashville, but evidently is waiting to see how the restricted free agent market pans out before signing any deal.

With significant cap issues coming up over the next few years, the Predators will have to make key decisions on what they want to do with Granlund and Smith. Nashville acquired Granlund at the trade deadline last year, swapping a younger Kevin Fiala for the 27-year-old, who will be a free agent at the end of the season. Granlund, who scored 47 goals in his two previous seasons, stepped back last year, scoring just 16 goals last season and only one of those in 16 games with Nashville. If Granlund can return to his 25-goal ways, the Predators are likely to find a way to keep him in the future, but another poor season could end their relationship early. Smith is a different situation. He’s been a 20-goal scorer for five of his last six seasons, but will be 31 when he signs his next deal. The question is whether the team wants to lock him up when he’s on the wrong side of 30.

Most of the other players listed here are depth options, with a number of bottom-pairing forwards and defensemen.

Two Years Remaining

G Pekka Rinne ($5MM, UFA)
F Nick Bonino ($4.1MM, UFA)
G Juuse Saros ($1.5MM, UFA)
D Steven Santini ($1.42MM, RFA)

The next two years could be the final two for Rinne, who will be 38 at that time. The veteran goaltender and Vezina Trophy winner put up another impressive season last year with a 30-19-4 record and a .918 save percentage. He will likely carry the load for the next two years, but Saros, the team’s goaltender of the future, will likely see more and more games before taking over as the Predators’ No. 1 goaltender in 2021-22. Saros played 31 games last season and while posting a 2.62 GAA, he did sport a .915 save percentage and should eventually get an extension.

Bonino was brought in from Pittsburgh to be the team’s third-string center and jumpstart the team’s bottom-six. He has done that, but also has found himself dropped down to the fourth line in the meantime and at $4.1MM, that’s a lot of money to be paying a bottom-line player. The only long-term hope, is that room is made so that Bonino, who posted 17 goals and 35 points last season, can return to his third-line role eventually.

Three Years Remaining

F Filip Forsberg ($6MM, UFA)
D Mattias Ekholm ($3.75MM, UFA)
F Calle Jarnkrok ($2MM, UFA)

The team has a solid bargain going with Forsberg making just $6MM per season. The Predators have gotten impressive production out of the winger, who posted 28 goals and 50 points last season (surprisingly his worst season of his career so far) and there is still hope that the 25-year-old may take his game up another notch and return to his 30-goal, 60-point mark that he has reached twice in his career or even take his game even further. However, the skilled winger remains an impressive player at a reasonable price for the next three years.

Ekholm may be the biggest bargain of the lot as the 29-year-old is one of the most underrated players in the league, showing off great defensive skill as well as posting 40 points for the first time in his career last year. Ekholm scored eight goals and 44 points last year and at under $4MM, the team has a cheap top-four player for quite a few years to come. Jarnkrok also gives the team a discounted player as the depth winger is a solid value at just $2MM per year.

Four Or More Years Remaining

F Matt Duchene ($8MM through 2025-26)
F Ryan Johansen ($8MM through 2024-25)
D Ryan Ellis ($6.25MM through 2026-27)
F Kyle Turris ($6MM through 2023-24)
F Viktor Arvidsson ($4.25MM through 2023-24)
F Colton Sissons ($2.86MM through 2025-26)

The team had to finally pay out to get themselves the No. 2 center that they desired. They thought they did that a few years ago when the traded for Turris and extended him, but so far that match hasn’t been what the team hoped for. However, after moving out Subban, the team had enough cap room to replace him on the roster with their biggest need, which will be filled by Duchene, who should be the perfect top-six center the team has coveted for year. Duchene is coming off a 31-goal, 70-point season and if he can continue to post numbers like that should be a solid value as well at $8MM per year. Turris, on the other hand, now moves down to the third-line center position and the team has high hopes that the 30-year-old will rebound from a seven-goal, 23-point disappointment last year. However, after a solid showing at the World Championships this summer, the team hopes he can rebound.

It’s hard to believe that people talk about the Nashville defense constantly, but only one of them is signed longer than three years. However, Ellis signed his long-term deal, which looks like a bargain for the team. The 28-year-old broke 40 points for the first time in his career and with his exceptional defense, is going to be a key member of their blueline for a long time.

Johansen’s goals have been down since coming over from Columbus, but he continues to be a dominant passer and put up a career high in assists this year with 50 as well as 64 points, the second-best of his career. The 27-year-old should only get better. Arvidsson is also locked up long-term as the 26-year-old scored a career-high 34 goals last season and has proven to be a top-line winger and even looks like a bargain at $4.25MM. Sissons also was just recently signed to a long-term, seven-year contract at a low price as the team believes he should be part of their bottom-six for a long time.

 

Buyouts

None

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Still To Sign

None

Best Value: Ekholm
Worst Value: Turris

Looking Ahead

The Nashville Predators have been put together impressively, using their no-tax situation to their advantage as players have made it clear that they want to stay in Nashville. The team has a solid core, but after a disappointing playoffs, the team must prove that they can return to their old dominance, especially in a challenging division like the Central, and continue to be one of the top teams in the league. Adding another top-six center should help and if they can get the most out of their players, the Predators should be a dominant team for years, but if head coach Peter Laviolette can’t get some of his players to take the next step in their development, they may be in trouble too.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Snapshots: Werenski, Kempny, Pominville

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Despite all that has happened over the past few month, Columbus Blue Jackets GM Jarmo Kekalainen has no regrets. He tells ESPN’s Greg Wyshysnki that the team’s decision to go “all in” at the trade deadline, holding on to Artemi Panarin and Sergei Bobrovsky and acquiring Matt Duchene and Ryan Dzingel, was a “calculated risk”. Even though all four have departed this summer via free agency, Kekalainen made his best effort to retain them and isn’t doing to dwell on the players’ decisions not to return. Instead, the bold executive is focused only on the coming season. Kekalainen answered Wyshynski confidently about a number of issues facing his team entering 2019-20, but paid extra attention to the stalled contract talks with RFA defenseman Zach Werenski:

The real frustration for me [is when it] drags on into training camp, because that’s a time for ‘team’… They start preparing and jelling and building that chemistry that we need as a team. When it goes to training camp time, it takes away from that preparation. It takes away from the team. That’s what I’m concerned about. And that’s where we’ve drawn the hard line before: We don’t believe in taking that preparation time away from the team. We think it should be resolved before the team gets together and gets ready for the season.

It seems that the Blue Jackets and Werenski are no closer to a resolution in contract talks and it is starting to impact the GM. With so much talent leaving Columbus this off-season and very few new faces arriving, Columbus needs their leaders and core players in training camp to get ready for what will likely be a more challenging season. Werenski is one of those key players and Kekalainen is clearly doing all that he can to get the talented young blue liner back under contract as soon as possible. As training camp draws closer, the question will be whether the Blue Jackets cave to Werenski’s demands to ensure that their valuable “preparation” is not adversely affected.

  • The division rival Washington Capitals may also be without a key defenseman in training camp and perhaps longer. Michal Kempny is still working his way back from a season-ending hamstring injury and The Athletic’s Tarik El-Bashir writes that there is no clear timeline for his return. Fortunately, after a summer spent rehabbing at home in the Czech Republic, Kempny has resumed skating back in D.C. and is working one-on-one with Capitals strength coach Mark Nemish. Kempny hopes to be ready for training camp, but truly has his sights set on simply being at full strength for the team’s regular season debut. “I’m getting there,” Kempny said, “I’m not 100 percent yet, for sure. I still need some time. If I’m going to make the (start of) training camp, that’s going to be great. But we’ll see… My goal is to be ready for the season.”
  • At one point this off-season, veteran forward Jason Pominville was also hoping to see another opening night of NHL action, but as the summer has drawn on without much interest in the free agent, his mindset has shifted. Pominville explained to NHL.com that he is “fine with the way things ended” last season, if it was indeed the end of his playing career. The 36-year-old returned to the Buffalo Sabres two years ago, re-joining the team with which he spent the first nine years of his now 15-year NHL career, and proved that he could still be a contributor, posting back-to-back 30+ point seasons and taking on an important role in the locker room. Pominville hoped that he could return to Buffalo for another season, but since that seems like a longshot, he’s content to stay in the city and not move his family, even if that means hanging up his skates.

Atlantic Notes: Senators, Dahlin, Alzner

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The Ottawa Senators are very much a brand new team entering the 2019-20 season. Gone are the likes of Mark Stone, Matt Duchene, Ryan Dzingel, Cody Ceci, and Zack Smith. New to the team are names like Artem Anisimov, Nikita Zaitsev, Ron Hainsey, and Connor Brown, while prospects like Erik Brannstrom, Drake Batherson, Josh Norris, and Max Veronneau are set to push for regular roles. On top of all of the roster turnover, the team also has a new head coach in D.J. Smith. Given these considerable changes, Smith’s comments to Sportsnet’s Wayne Scanlan comes as little surprise. First and foremost, Smith tells Scanlan that the Senators will not name a captain in the coming season. The team did not have a captain last season following the departure of Erik Karlsson and now has even fewer tenured veterans. He did say that there will be veteran members, old and new, who he will rely on to play leadership roles in the locker room, but simply feels that the team must wait for a captain to naturally emerge. It also may not necessarily be one of the established veterans, as Smith notes that he will make a “conscious effort” to share ice time and responsibility evenly between the older players and many young players pushing for an opportunity. More than anything, Smith states that he hopes to change the culture in Ottawa, instilling a sense of belief and confidence in the new additions, young players, and perhaps even some of those long-time Senators who have survived a couple of difficult seasons. Based on Smith’s comments, it seems that the Senators will be a very new team indeed in many ways this coming season.

  • A young leader is developing for one of the Senators’ divisional rivals, the Buffalo Sabres. Phenom Rasmus Dahlin, the No. 1 overall pick in 2018 and a Calder Trophy finalist last season, is not afraid to speak his mind and knew what he was doing when he made some bold predictions to the Associated Press’ John Wawrow. “We’re going to be a winning team and be in the playoffs,” Dahlin told Wawrow, “I’m putting more pressure on myself… I think everyone is putting more pressure on ourselves now, and we’re ready to go… I feel more prepared. I feel more mature. Like that one year of experience, I know what’s coming this season. I feel more comfortable in my position… we’re going to get something good going on here.” It’s a strong statement from Dahlin and one that will surprise many. The Sabres have not made the playoffs since 2011 and finished 13th in the Eastern Conference this past season after a late-season collapse. The team arguably plays in the toughest division in the game as well, as Atlantic powerhouses Tampa Bay, Boston, and Toronto will almost certainly claim the top three seeds in the division, leaving Buffalo to fight for one of two wild card spots. Yet, the Sabres have to be happy that their 18-year-old centerpiece is bold enough to put those playoff expectations on his shoulders and will look to follow him back to postseason glory this season, no matter how tough the road may be.
  • Montreal Canadiens defenseman Karl Alzner would like to be part of his team’s playoff push next season as well. Unfortunately, Alzner’s poor play left him relegated to the AHL for all but nine games last season. After spending the summer working out with teammates Carey Price and Shea Weber, Alzner tells TVA’s Louis-André Larivière that he feels he is ready to once again be a regular contributor and hopes he is given a fair shot to compete for such a role in the team’s upcoming training camp. While Alzner stated that he does not want to waste years of his career, whether or not he has an NHL role is ultimately up to him. His own play and taxing $4.625MM cap hit are why he spent last season with the Laval Rocket and he must prove that he is worth keeping on the roster. Alzner revealed that he did not formally request a trade last season, but that he will likely do so if he is cut from Canadiens camp this fall. However, there may not be much of a market for his services and likely even less interest in promising him a regular role at the NHL level.

Predators Expected To Sign Matt Duchene

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Monday: TSN’s Darren Dreger has the breakdown of Duchene’s contract, which includes $28MM in signing bonuses. Colleague Pierre LeBrun adds that the deal also includes a modified No-Trade Clause in the final three years that allows Duchene to select seven teams he cannot be traded to.

Sunday: Matt Duchene was the top center on the free agent market and it appears he’s heading back to the Western Conference.  Sportsnet’s Chris Johnston reports (Twitter link) that Duchene is set to sign with the Predators on a contract with an $8MM AAV.  Pierre LeBrun of TSN and The Athletic adds (via Twitter) that it’s expected to be a seven-year deal, the maximum term for a free agent not re-signing with his own team.  That price tag will tie fellow pivot Ryan Johansen as the top cap hit on the team.

Duchene matched his career high offensively in 2018-19 with 70 points (31-39-70) in 73 games.  He started off the year in Ottawa but when he wasn’t able to come to terms on an extension prior to the trade deadline, he was flipped to the Blue Jackets as Columbus went all in.  He wasn’t as productive with them during the regular season (12 points in 23 contests) but he picked up his play in the postseason, picking up five goals and five assists in their ten games, ranking second on the team in playoff scoring.

While Columbus certainly would have wanted to keep Duchene, this news provides them with a small silver lining.  As part of the trade with the Senators, they would have had to part with their 2020 first-round pick if he re-signed with them.  As that’s not happening, that pick won’t change hands which closes the book on that swap.

In Duchene, Nashville is landing someone who they feel can solidify their depth down the middle.  They tried Kyle Turris as their second line pivot (interestingly enough, he was part of the trade that sent Duchene to Ottawa) but that hasn’t worked out.  Duchene’s offensive track record suggests that this move has a better chance of working.

The Preds signalled their intentions of making a splash in free agency back at the draft when they dealt defenseman P.K. Subban to New Jersey for a package that largely consisted of future assets to free up just over $7.5MM in cap room (after taking Steven Santini’s salary into consideration).  It turns out they’ll use all of that and then some to land Duchene but in the process, they’ve landed one of the top free agents on the market.  The 28-year-old ranked third in our Top 50 UFA Rankings.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Chicago Blackhawks Acquire Andrew Shaw From Montreal

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The Chicago Blackhawks announced they have re-acquired forward Andrew Shaw from the Montreal Canadiens in exchange for three draft picks. Chicago will send a 2020 second-round pick, a 2020 seventh-round pick and a 2021 third-round pick to Montreal in exchange for Shaw and a 2021 seventh-round pick.

Shaw spent the first five years of his career in Chicago after the Blackhawks drafted him in the fifth round in 2011. The physical forward scored 20 goals in the 2013-14 season and followed that up with 15 and then 14-goal campaigns after that. However, with salary cap troubles on them in 2016, the Blackhawks were forced to trade Shaw to Montreal in a draft-day deal for two second-round picks. One of those picks turned into Alex DeBrincat.

Shaw signed a six-year $23.4MM deal a few days later with the Canadiens. He has provided the Canadiens with solid middle-six depth in the three years he’s been with Montreal, picking up 19 goals and a career-high 47 points last year where he spent most of his time on the second line. Shaw still has three years remaining on his deal at $3.9MM AAV. With Chicago, he should immediately slot in on either the second or third line and provide the team with both scoring and a physical presence.

For Montreal, who many feel could be major players in free agency on Monday, the team now has $12.6MM in cap space with rumors that the team is right in on players like Matt Duchene and Anders Lee. Unloading Shaw and his $3.9MM could go well into helping the team add a more veteran scorer to the lineup, while adding three future picks, including a future second and third-rounder should only help the Canadiens down the road.

Snapshots: Duchene, Donskoi, Vrana, Engelland, McElhinney, Berglund

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While speculation has center Matt Duchene likely signing a long-term deal with the Nashville Predators, Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman writes that the Montreal Canadiens aren’t out of the running yet. While Nashville may still be the favorite to land the star center, Friedman writes that one of his sources says that it’s not locked in and Montreal still is in the race.

Duchene, who grew up a fan of the Canadiens, would be a big addition for the Canadiens if they can land him. Duchene would likely become their top center in hopes of vaulting Montreal back into a playoff spot.

  • TSN’s Pierre LeBrun reports that while things are still in the works, he believes that the Colorado Avalanche and an unidentified team are the finalists to sign unrestricted free agent forward Joonas Donskoi. The 27-year-old scored 14 goals and 37 points last season and could provide the team with a solid middle-six option for the Avalanche. While LeBrun notes that he doesn’t know who the other team is, he believes that Buffalo and Edmonton are not in the running anymore.
  • The Washington Capitals managed to trade off one of their key restricted free agents in Andre Burakovsky Friday in hopes of saving some cap room, but even being free of that contract, the money is tight in Washington. In fact, Washington general manager Brian MacLellan said that because the NHL salary cap was lower than expected ($81.5MM), the team will likely be forced to sign restricted free agent Jakub Vrana to a short-term deal, according to NHL.com’s Tom Gulliti. Washington had initially planned to lock up Vrana to a long-term deal when the team had expected the cap to be set at $83MM, but with the number being lower than expected, the MacLellan doesn’t believe the team has the money to sign him long-term.
  • Vegas Golden Knights President of Hockey Operations George McPhee confirmed that the team is close to signing veteran unrestricted free agent defenseman Deryk Engelland, according to Las Vegas Review-Journal’s David Schoen. The 37-year-old had a down season last year, but the veteran who actually played in Vegas in the ECHL before the Golden Knights came about, has been a community leader there. He is likely expected to take a bottom-six role next season and could find himself more in a 6th/7th role on defense.
  • TSN’s Pierre LeBrun reports that the Montreal Canadiens are among three teams that are interested in signing veteran goaltender Curtis McElhinney. The 36-year-old had a great season in Carolina after the Hurricanes claimed him off waivers from the Toronto Maple Leafs at the beginning of the year. He finished the season with a 2.58 GAA and a .912 save percentage in 33 appearances. LeBrun also adds that it doesn’t look like Toronto is one of the other two teams.
  • Former NHL player Patrik Berglund, who walked out on the Buffalo Sabres in the middle of last season, is exploring a return the the NHL and has several teams interested, according to Fox Sports Midwest’s Andy Strickland. Berglund, who was packaged to Buffalo in the Ryan O’Reilly trade last offseason, didn’t like it in Buffalo and finally requested that his contract to be terminated after playing just 23 games in a reduced role. The 31-year-old scored 17 goals in the 2017-18 season, but scored just twice before walking away this year.

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