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Trade Deadline Primer: Nashville Predators

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Although we’re less than three months into the season, the trade deadline is already just three weeks away.  Where does each team stand and what moves should they be looking to make?  We continue our look around the league with the Nashville Predators.

The Nashville Predators are sellers. In fact, the Predators being ready to gut their roster has been one of the more talked-about storylines of the 2020-21 season. Ask any media personality in hockey and they will say that Nashville is shopping this guy and listening on that guy. It seems that almost anyone on the roster could be available as the Predators have been labeled as disappointments.

Yet, hidden behind the headlines, the outrage level likely isn’t that high internally in Nashville. Quietly, the team is actually playing quite well of late. Since Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman proclaimed last month that there were only three untouchables on the entire Nashville roster, the team has gone 10-7-1 including four wins in a row and wins in six of their past seven. The team is up to .500 on the season and that could be enough to sneak into the postseason in the Central Division’s final spot. In their history, the Predators have never really torn apart their roster and restarted and it seems unlikely that they have the proper motivation to do so now.

With that said, this is still not where the 2017 Western Conference Champions thought they would be at this point in time. The season results have gotten worse each year since their Stanley Cup Final appearance: a second-round exit in 2018, a first-round loss in 2019, and a failure to even advance beyond the qualifying round last year. Now, there is a real possibility that the Predators could miss the playoffs entirely this season. A team loaded with depth and numerous talented veterans, Nashville should be better and it is somewhat inexplicable why they aren’t. As a result, there needs to be a shake-up. However, given the recent improvements, the Predators’ approach to the deadline is likely to be less fire sale and more strategic dealing, especially in a buyer’s market.

Record

17-17-1, .500, T-5th in Central Division

Deadline Status

Seller

Deadline Cap Space

$2.46MM in full-season space ($10.97MM at the trade deadline), 0/3 retention slots used, 45/50 contracts used per CapFriendly

Upcoming Draft Picks

2021: NSH 1st, NSH 2nd, NSH 3rd, NSH 4th, COL 4th, NSH 5th, NSH 6th
2022: NSH 1st, NSH 2nd, NSH 3rd, NSH 4th, NSH 5th, NSH 7th

Trade Chips

It is probably easier to start with the players who aren’t for sale. As Friedman noted back in February, that definitely includes career Predator goaltender Pekka Rinne, who is in the last year of his contract and quite possibly his career and is being honored with the ability to go out on his own terms (and a No-Movement Clause helps). It also included cornerstone defensemen Roman Josi and Ryan Ellis. At the time, this was the extent of Friedman’s list. He even noted that young defender Dante Fabbro or top scorer Filip Forsberg could be available at the right price. Now, that is almost certainly not the case. Friedman has also since flipped on Ellis’ availability, but he should be safe. Nashville also has no reason to trade young impact players, such as off-season acquisition Luke Kunin, recent first-round pick Eeli Tolvanen, collegiate standouts Rem Pitlick and Jeremy Davies, and impressive goaltender Juuse Saros.

Beyond that group, it probably isn’t a stretch to say that GM David Poile will at least listen to offers for anyone else on the roster. Part of that is due to the Predators’ current situation and the slim likelihood that they can contend this season, even if they do sneak into the playoffs in a top-heavy Central Division. This means that they receive no benefit from hanging on to their impending unrestricted free agents. Mikael Granlund is the top trade chip among this group. The skilled forward was a late off-season signing and somewhat of an afterthought heading into the season, but leads all Nashville forwards in time on ice, proving himself to be an invaluable piece. Other teams have taken notice as well, as Granlund’s name has been floated on the rumor mill more than a few times and has been linked to several contenders. Another late off-season addition, Erik Haula will also be for sale. A similarly versatile forward to Granlund, Haula hasn’t made as much of an impact but has previously proven to be an asset in the right system. Among other expiring contracts, veterans Brad Richardson and Luca Sbisa, if healthy by the deadline, could draw some interest at a cheap price point. Despite their recent success, the Predators only reason for not trading any of these potential rentals would be if they had interest in an extension and only Granlund, their most valuable piece, would conceivably fit the bill.

The other reason why Poile is open to moving other players off his roster, those with term on their contracts, is partially due to the impending Expansion Draft. Whether the Predators choose to use the standard 7-3 protection scheme or instead choose the 8-skater scheme in order to protect Mattias Ekholm, they will be exposing key players either way. Ironically, the Predators’ impressive depth on paper is not doing much to help them this season but will hurt them in expansion. Ekholm is at the top of most trade boards as a name likely to move before the deadline. The Seattle Kraken would not hesitate to claim him if he was to be left exposed in the draft and the Predators will not give him up for free when he can command a strong return on the trade market as a balanced, two-way defenseman with an affordable contract and a reliable top-four track record. Yet, even if Ekholm is traded and the Predators can protect three defensemen and seven forwards, they still face liability up front. Nashville simply has too many valuable names at forward, even if many are underachieving. Are they really ready to let expensive, underwhelming former stars like Ryan Johansen or Matt Duchene go for free? Could they really leave career Predators like Calle Jarnkrok or Colton Sissons exposed? And they also need to consider protecting younger names like Pitlick an Yakov Trenin who could be looked upon to take on larger roles moving forward. There are simply too many names in Nashville for a valuable player not to be left exposed, so why not listen to trade offers instead. Moving Johansen or Duchene this season is unlikely due to cap implications, but Jarnkrok, Sissons, Rocco Grimaldi, and Nick Cousins are all for sale at the right price. The difference between last month’s mindset and the current strategy is likely that only one or two of the aforementioned players are likely to go, rather than the whole lot in a fire sale.

The x-factor for Nashville at the deadline is forward Viktor Arvidsson. By no means does the team have to trade the talented winger, who will have a safe spot on their protection list come Expansion Draft time if he is still on the roster. However, Arvidsson has been in decline for two seasons now – an unexpected regression for a 27-year-old. Arvidsson is still relied upon to play a key top-six role for Nashville, but is failing to produce like he did as a back-to-back 61-point player just a few years ago. On one hand, the Predators would be selling low on the skilled forward, who should still have plenty left in the tank. On the other hand, moving Arvidsson if they are happy with an offer could be the reality check that the team desperately needs. If the trade market remains underwhelming though, as many expect, it is more likely that Arvidsson stays put for now. Trading him at his lowest point while the team is finally gaining traction is not the shake up they need.

Others to Watch For: D Mark Borowiecki ($2MM, 2022 UFA), D Matt Benning ($1MM, 2022 UFA), G Kasimir Kaskisuo ($700K, UFA), D Ben Harpur ($700K, RFA), F Michael McCarron ($700K, RFA)

Team Needs

1) Draft Picks – Despite several years in a row of regular season success, the Predators have managed to build themselves a nice pipeline of talent. At every position, they have multiple players who project to be good NHLers. The problem with their current pipeline is that it is getting a little old. Some of their best prospects are already in the pros, bouncing between the NHL and AHL or locked into contracts overseas. Many others are collegiate players on the older side for prospects. Nashville needs some fresh blood and the best way to do that is to add draft picks. Though they have their full complement of draft picks this year (minus a seventh-rounder), draft pick packages will be the way to go as they move on from current roster players.

2) Top-Four Left-Handed Prospect Defenseman – If available, the one area that Nashville could target a specific player rather than load up on draft picks is at left defense. With Ekholm looking like his time in Nashville is winding down and some concern over whether Boston University defenseman David Farrance will sign with the team or instead opt for free agency, there could be a major hole in the top-four at LHD. The Predators have the cap space to find a capable free agent stopgap, but could use a long-term plan. Young pros Fabbro, Alexandre Carrier, and Frederic Allard are all right-handed and Davies looks like a solid NHLer but is already 24 and lacks top-pair upside. In the pipeline, Marc Del Gaizo is an intriguing prospect but more likely a bottom-pair defender. No one else even projects to be an NHLer. The Predators need to reload on the blue line, and can do that through the draft, but if a top young left-handed defense prospect is offered up, they would be wise to consider. To a lesser extent, center is also a position that could become a need sooner rather than later in Nashville as many of the Predators’ top forward prospects are not necessarily projected to play center at the top level. A natural pivot with top-six upside would be a nice addition, but isn’t as pressing as left defense and could be more easily found where the team expects to pick in the first round of the 2021 NHL Draft.

Predators Place Matt Duchene On Injured Reserve

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Things continue to go from bad to worse in the injury front for the Predators as the team announced (Twitter link) that Matt Duchene has been placed on injured reserve with a lower-body injury in advance of their game today against Florida.  The center is expected to miss the next three-to-five weeks.

As has been the case for many of Nashville’s players this season, it hasn’t been a good year so far for the 30-year-old.  Duchene has just three goals and five assists in 23 games which is hardly the type of production they’re expecting from a player that’s tied for the highest cap hit on the team at $8MM (along with fellow underachieving center Ryan Johansen).

Nonetheless, Duchene’s absence adds to their quickly-growing list of impact players out of the lineup; he now joins defenseman Ryan Ellis, goalie Juuse Saros, and Luke Kunin as regulars that are out while Luca Sbisa has been out since the season-opener.  For a team that isn’t the deepest, it’s a tough spot to fill but in the meantime, Erik Haula – who looks like a possible trade candidate over the next few weeks – should be in line for a bigger role at some point although Mikael Granlund (another candidate to be moved) will move down the middle for now.

Trade Rumors: Predators, Fleury, Vesey

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While Mattias Ekholm may be the name that teams are clamoring over right now, whether he’s actually available or not, he isn’t the only Predator that might eventually be on the block. Many, including top analysts Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet and Pierre LeBrun of TSN, believe that the Predators are quickly approaching the point of no return this season and will begin to move players shortly. Despite a talented roster on paper, Nashville sits in seventh place in the Central Division with a points percentage of just .400 through 15 games. More than a quarter of the way through their campaign, the Predators face a slim chance of turning it around and making the playoffs, especially in this season’s difficult makeshift format.

While Nashville may not quite be ready to fully blow up their roster, both Friedman and LeBrun agree that impending free agents Mikael Granlund and Erik Haula are as good as gone. Both had significant interest on the open market late into this past off-season before deciding on Nashville and that interest should remain. Granlund especially has performed well – he’s arguably Nashville’s second-best forward thus far – and should net a decent return. That may not be the end of the list, though. Veterans Brad Richardson and Luca Sbisa may also hold rental value, while term forwards like Nick Cousins, a disappointment in his first season with Nashville, Rocco Grimaldi, or Calle Jarnkrok could also find themselves on the block. Friedman notes that top-six centers Matt Duchene and Ryan Johansen may be made available, but given their massive contracts and lacking production in the current flat cap climate, interest will likely be slim. Their potential availability is still a sign that the Predators could be considering a major shake-up nonetheless.

  • Although they considered moving him this off-season in an effort to open up cap space, Friedman does not believe that Vegas Golden Knights goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury is still available. The fan favorite has been stellar this season, especially in light of the struggles of “starter” Robin Lehner. While Lehner has battled injury and inconsistency, Fleury has posted a .937 save percentage and 1.56 GAA, and most importantly seven wins through nine starts. He has been a major reason why the Knights are off to such a hot start; a start that likely would have gone the other way had Fleury been moved this off-season leaving the frustrated Lehner as the only experienced goalie on the roster. So while Fleury remains an aging asset on an expensive contract who at least had the appearance of only being a backup moving forward, he has proven himself invaluable to Vegas. With a number of teams troubled in net, including Fleury’s former Pittsburgh Penguins, there is a renewed interest in taking on Fleury’s contract in order to take advantage of his current hot streak, but don’t expect the Golden Knights to give him up this season.
  • Following their acquisition of Alex Galchenyuk, Friedman wonders if the Jimmy Vesey experiment has already come to an end in Toronto. The free agent addition has just three points in 16 games despite having been given ample opportunity to produce. Given the Maple Leafs’ tight salary cap situation, even with a pair of players currently on Long-Term Injured Reserve, Toronto has to be measured in every roster decision. Once Wayne Simmonds and Jack Campbell return to health and especially if Galchenyuk has earned a role in the starting lineup by that time, the team likely will not have room to carry Vesey, even at just $900K against the cap. An affordable (to most) impending free agent with size and goal-scoring ability, it seems likely that someone would be willing to give Vesey another shot, especially if they can get him for free on waivers. If the Maple Leafs feel that Vesey will not clear, the countdown may have already begun for the team to make a trade before he is lost for nothing on the waiver wire.

Morning Notes: Johnson, Murray, Predators

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Jim Rutherford may be a bigger fan than most of Jack Johnson, but that doesn’t mean the Pittsburgh Penguins defenseman will be in the lineup on opening night. Rutherford, the Penguins GM, spoke with Josh Yohe of The Athletic yesterday and explained that after acquiring Mike Matheson from the Florida Panthers there may not be any room on the left side for Johnson next season.

[Brian] Dumoulin and [Marcus] Petterson are still young and aren’t going anywhere. And obviously we like Matheson a great deal. He’ll play on the left side. So, that’s our left side. Those three. That’s it.

Rutherford suggested that Johnson could play the right side or is maybe “just going to be a depth guy” for 2020-21, but it certainly wasn’t the same vote of confidence he gave when the season ended. There is still lots of offseason left and the Penguins priority may be moving a goaltender, but make no mistake that there may still be changes coming on the blue line.

  • Michael Murray has been hired by the Minnesota Wild as an assistant to the general manager, coming over from his post with the AHL. Murray was named vice president of hockey operations for the minor league in 2011 and was considered the second in command behind commissioner Dave Andrews. As Michael Russo of The Athletic points out on Twitter, Murray happens to be the son of Minnesota GM Bill Guerin’s former agent. The team explained that Murray will help oversee the day-to-day of the hockey operations department and assist with contract negotiations, player development, and scouting.
  • The Nashville Predators are considering moving one of their centers according to Frank Seravalli of TSN, who lists Ryan Johansen, Matt Duchene, and Nick Bonino on his latest Trade Bait board and mentions Kyle Turris as well. Nashville has an incredible $26.1MM in cap space locked up in those four, with only Bonino’s deal (the cheapest of the bunch) expiring anytime soon. There wasn’t a 45-point player in the bunch of them this season, with Duchene (42) coming closest.

Columbus Blue Jackets Eyeing Big Splash This Off-Season

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Last off-season, no team took a bigger hit than the Columbus Blue Jackets. The club lost two of their franchise stars in forward Artemi Panarin and goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky to free agency, along with expensive rental forwards Matt Duchene and Ryan Dzingel. Panarin, Bobrovsky, and Duchene were in fact the three largest UFA contracts handed out last summer. No one expected the Blue Jackets to be able to rebound from those losses, but one year later the team knocked out a talented Toronto Maple Leafs team in the qualifying round and gave the Tampa Bay Lightning, one of the NHL’s best, a run for their money in the the first round.

Columbus showed that they still have what it takes to be a contender even with last year’s major losses. The team has discovered not one but two reliable options in net, has one of the top defensive pairs in the league and solid depth behind them, and a mix of youth, experience, skill, and grit up front. If there is one thing that the Blue Jackets still lack, it is what they lost in Panarin and Duchene: elite top-six forwards. While the team has a number of young players who may grow into that role, the club does not appear content to sit in wait, instead hoping to take action this off-season. The Athletic’s Aaron Portzline writes that whispers out of the organization is that GM Jarmo Kekalainen is preparing to add at least one if not two high-skill forwards this off-season, with a bona fide top-six center as the priority.

On the surface, this plan makes perfect sense. Portzline notes the Blue Jackets ranked second-to-last in forward scoring this season, which undoubtedly was partially the result of a rash of injuries up front but is still an indictment of the forward corps’ ability to produce. The team also has roughly $68MM committed to 20 players who were regular players this season with just a few restricted free agents to take care of, so there could be cap space to spare on the free agent market.

However, adding impact forwards will be easier said than done. While Columbus has approximately $13.5MM in cap space, should they opt for long-term contracts for budding top-six center Pierre-Luc Dubois and solid young defenseman Vladislav Gavrikov, much of that space could be eaten up. On top of that, the team will have to make decisions on re-signing RFA forwards Josh Anderson and Devin Shore as well. If both return, the team will be right up against the cap ceiling without even touching the free agent market. They will also be facing a roster crunch with 17 players already signed to one-way contracts worth $1.6MM or more, including recent KHL import Mikhail Grigorenko but not any of the aforementioned RFA’s.

Even if the team does have space to explore the top names on the open market, they may find that no one fits their top-six center criteria. While the team will surely kick the tires on big names like Taylor Hall, Tyler Toffoli, Mike Hoffman, and Evgenii Dadonov, none of that group is a solution down the middle. The second tier also only offers players that are not necessarily natural centers: Mikael Granlund, Carl Soderberg, or even old friend Derick Brassard. Columbus’ best bet may be to target a younger, more moldable player with some center experience, such as Vladislav Namestnikov, Erik Haula, or Alex Galchenyuk. However, there really isn’t an ideal target to sure up the center position in the top six.

For both internal and external reasons, Kekalainen seems likely to explore the trade market in his efforts to add at least one of his target top-six forwards and most likely at center. Portzline also opines that this is a likely route and that the team could deal from their depth at forward or defense to make a deal. On the blue line in particular, the team will have eight experienced NHL defenseman once Gavrikov is re-signed and will likely have to thin that group. Portzline believes that David Savard would be the easiest to move, while talented but oft-injured Ryan Murray or useful Markus Nutivaara could also draw interest. Up front, the rights to Anderson or Shore could certainly be dealt and the team will likely dangle Alexander Wennberg again this off-season. The real question is whether the team would give up on a top young prospect like Emil Bemstrom, Alexandre Texier, or Liam Foudy. Portzline also believes that teams could come calling on goaltenders Joonas Korpisalo and Elvis Merzlikins, but dealing either one could just create another hole in the lineup.

With plenty of trade chips, the Blue Jackets could cash in on a desperate market. Given both the flat salary cap and the looming threat of the 2021 Expansion Draft, there will likely be many teams open to moving established forwards this off-season and Columbus has a much better chance of finding a true top-six center – and perhaps even another top forward – via trade. One way or another, the club has been inspired by its playoff run and has its sights set on improving immediately, so don’t be surprised to see the Blue Jackets make a big splash this summer.

Stretch Run Storylines: Nashville Predators

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As things stand, the NHL is planning to have games resume at some point over the coming weeks.  Assuming the regular season continues, there will be plenty of things to watch for over the stretch run.  Over the coming weeks, PHR will examine the top stretch run storylines for each team.  We continue our look at the Central Division with Nashville.

It’s been an inconsistent season for the Nashville Predators, who many felt could challenge for the Central Division title this season. Instead, the team struggled out of the gate, which included a six-game losing streak in November and by early January, general manager David Poile made a decision to let go of long-time coach Peter Laviolette and associate coach Kevin McCarthy after the team had a 19-15-7 record. The team replaced him with recently fired coach John Hynes, who took over and saw the team fight its way back into the final wild card spot, but with continued inconsistent play and several teams breathing down their necks, the team will have to fight to remain in the playoffs.

Questionable Offense

When looking at the team’s top four point producers so far this year, the Nashville Predators have two defenseman in their top four, including defenseman Roman Josi, who leads the team in scoring by far with 65 points this season. That is fine when the team runs its offense through its defense. However, the team’s first line players, however, aren’t having great seasons, which has only made things more challenging.

While there is still plenty of time left, assuming the regular season resumes, Filip Forsberg looks to be heading for a career-low in goals. After never posting lower than 26 goals in his tenure with Nashville, the 25-year-old has just 21 goals and 48 points and still hasn’t been able to take his impressive game to that next level and develop into the star that many people had envisioned.

To make matters worse, Poile went out of his way to upgrade his defense by trading away P.K. Subban in the offseason and using that new-found money to sign center Matt Duchene to give the team a second dominant center. Duchene was expected to play the role of a major point producer after posting a 31-goal, 70-point season last year between Ottawa and Columbus. However, that hasn’t translated in his first year in Nashville as he has just 13 goals and 42 points through 66 games.

If Nashville wants to ensure a trip to the playoffs and maybe even surviving a round or two, the Predators must get more consistent play from their forwards. Even Viktor Arvidsson, who has averaged 30 goals for the three previous years has just 15 goals this season.

Goaltending Issues

A year ago, there were plenty of people that would have referred to the Predators’ goaltending tandem of Pekka Rinne and Juuse Saros as one of the best in the league. However, that hasn’t been the case so far this year.

The 36-year-old Rinne started a new two-year, $10MM deal this season, but few expected a major drop-off after he posted a 2.42 GAA and a .918 save percentage in 56 appearances last year. Unfortunately for the Predators, those numbers took a nosedive. In 36 games this season, Rinne has a 3.17 GAA and a .895 save percentage, which has allowed Saros to take an even bigger role, while also leaving questions on how wise it was to give Rinne two more years.

After a slow start, Saros has been much more successful and has taken on the starting role, having appeared in 16 games since February.  The 27-year-old netminder has a pedestrian 2.70 GAA in 40 appearances (a career high), but also has a .914 save percentage, winning 10 of those appearances.

The team needs Saros to continue his conversion into the team’s everyday starter, but also needs to hope that the break rejuvenates Rinne, who the team needs to bounce back and take some of the responsibility off Saros.

Coaching Transition

Often when teams fire their coaches at midseason, like the Predators did with Laviolette in January, the team hopes the change will inspire the team to take their game up a notch and show they are as talented as management had assumed at the start of the season. So far Hynes has the team at 16-11-1, only a slight improvement, yet while the team has been inconsistent since Hynes has taken over, Nashville has three three-game and three two-game winning streaks this year.

One would have to imagine that the layoff could benefit Hynes more than anything as he has more time to study tape and adjust his coaching techniques and lines to improve the team when they get back on the ice.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Poll: Can The Predators Make The Playoffs?

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Matt Duchene, the Nashville Predator’s blockbuster free agent addition of this past summer, remains very confident in his new team, despite how their season is going. Duchene, in the first season on a seven-year, $56MM contract, is one of a number of under-performing players on the Nashville roster. The team has not played up to expectations this year, which has already cost head coach Peter Laviolette his job and now threatens to cost the team a trip to the postseason. Yet, Duchene believes the team has what it takes to turn their season around and qualify. He told the media on Monday that he feels that Nashville is a playoff team and, to double down, he does not think they need to make a move ahead of the forthcoming NHL Trade Deadline.

It’s a mighty big prognostication from a player who has been part of the problem and not the solution for the Predators this year. Duchene is on pace for just 56 points this season, which would be among the worst years of his career, when he was supposed to be shine on a talented Nashville roster. He’s not alone; Filip Forsberg (59 points), Ryan Johansen (47), Viktor Arvidsson (40), Kyle Turris (36), and Mikael Granlund (30) are all on pace to finish well below what has come to be expected of them. On top of that, veteran starter Pekka Rinne and young backup Juuse Saros are both experiencing the worst campaigns of their careers. Nearly all of Nashville’s key pieces outside of Roman Josi have disappointed to this point in the season, leaving them in the basement of the Central Division and among the worst teams in the league in a number of categories.

Yet, maybe Duchene has a point. A closer look would imply that perhaps Nashville is more than their current last-place position in the Central Division. With substantial games in hand on Minnesota, Chicago, and Winnipeg, the Predators’ .543 points percentage before Monday night’s game is actually fourth-best in the division. Beyond that, while the Preds currently trail the Vegas Golden Knights by six points for the final wild card spot in the Western Conference, they are really just .005 points percentage points behind. Nashville actually seems to be well-positioned to compete for a spot. Also strange is the seeming lack of correlation between the number of underachieving core producers on the Predators and the actual state of their offense. At 3.30 goals for per game, the team is tied for seventh-best in the league in offense so far this season, even if only Josi is among the top scorers at his position.

With all that said, there is no hiding the fact that the Predators have been poor defensively and on special teams this season, their goaltending situation is shaky at best, and their best forwards have not risen to the occasion all year. Will the returns of Ryan Ellis and Colton Sissons be enough to boost the team? Can their struggling stars turn things around without help?

We already know how Duchene would vote, but what say you? Can the Predators make the playoffs?

[Mobile users click here to vote]

Blue Jackets Notes: Recent Surge, Bjorkstrand, Wennberg

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No team in the NHL is hotter than the Columbus Blue Jackets in the new year. Columbus is 8-2-0 in their past ten games, which includes three shutouts and a pair of wins against the Boston Bruins. The team has now crept their way into the top wild card spot in the Eastern Conference, jumping ahead of the likes of Philadelphia, Carolina, and Toronto. Even more impressive is that the Blue Jackets have made this run while missing many of their best players: starting goaltender Joonas Korpisalo, top scorer Cam Atkinson and fellow forwards Oliver Bjorkstrand, Josh Anderson, and Alexandre Texier, and defensemen Ryan Murray and Dean Kukan. With those players on their way back to health – Atkinson made his return on Thursday – one would think that Columbus has a chance to not only sustain their success, but possibly even improve upon it.

Yet, the question then becomes whether the team can really buy in to this season after the events of 2018-19. Last year, the Blue Jackets went all in, trading away Anthony Duclair, two top forward prospects, a first-round pick, two second-round picks, and three additional picks to load up with rentals Matt Duchene, Ryan Dzingel, Adam McQuaid, and Keith Kinkaid. The team also opted not to move their own impending free agents in Artemi Panarin and Sergei Bobrovsky. Although Columbus stunned the Tampa Bay Lightning with a first-round sweep, the first playoff series win in franchise history, they fell in the second round and lost each of those six free agents in the off-season. If the Blue Jackets are again in a position only to battle for a wild card spot down the stretch, can the team risk another season of lost prospects and draft capital? Only time will tell how long the team can continue this dominant stretch and what position they may be in by late next month, but another active trade deadline would be a difficult hit to the team’s pipeline.

  • Columbus’ best bet may be to depend on their internal options to get healthy and play to the best of their abilities. The team announced a step in the right direction today, as Bjorkstrand has been activated from the injured reserve and will return to action for the first time since December 22. Bjorkstrand is actually returning earlier than his expected four-to-six week timeline, healing quickly from broken ribs. Bjorkstrand was on pace for a career year prior to his injury, with 23 points in his first 36 games. The 24-year-old winger was embracing his increased responsibility and Columbus has to hope that he can continue to excel in his elevated role the rest of the year. With Bjorkstrand back, Kevin Stenlund is the odd man out, reassigned to the AHL.
  • If the Blue Jackets are to lean on their existing roster this season for a playoff run, another intriguing situation will be the trade status of Alexander Wennberg. Wennberg has been on the trade block since early last season and in the minds of many hockey pundits remains a player that Columbus would like to move. The young center has not lived up to the long-term extension the team signed him to back in 2017, which carries a $4.9MM cap hit for three more years beyond this season. However, as opposed to last season when Wennberg recorded only 25 points and was scratched a handful of games, Wennberg too has embraced his increased role in the wake of free agent departures and injuries this year. The 25-year-old has played in all but one game for the Blue Jackets, recording 20 points. This puts him on pace for 34 points on the year, a sharp uptick from last season. It also makes him a top-six scoring forward for the team so far this year. Can Columbus afford to move out a player in such an important role this year for only salary cap purposes when they are trying to make it back to the postseason?

West Notes: Predators, Hjalmarsson, Kuemper, Flames

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After adding Matt Duchene in free agency this summer, the Predators were expected to once again be one of the top teams in the Central Division.  However, that hasn’t come to fruition as Nashville is tied for last in the division (though they’ve played the fewest games in the conference).  Speaking with 104.5 The Zone (audio link), GM David Poile indicated that he’s “open for business” when it comes to the trade market and acknowledged that if things don’t turn around quickly, they could be sellers for the first time in quite a while.  When asked about the possibility of making a coaching change, Poile stated that replacing Peter Laviolette is “not in my game plan right now”.  Laviolette is in his sixth season with the team and they have made the playoffs in each year that he has been there.

More from the West:

  • Coyotes defenseman Niklas Hjalmarsson has resumed skating in a non-contact jersey, notes Richard Morin of the Arizona Republic. He has been out since suffering a broken fibula in their fourth game of the season.  GM John Chayka mentioned that there’s still no set timeline for his return but that he’s now more day-to-day than week-to-week.  Meanwhile, goaltender Darcy Kuemper has resumed skating on his own but it’s still uncertain if he’ll be cleared to play by the All-Star break.
  • While there isn’t an imminent trade on the horizon, Flames GM Brad Treliving told reporters, including Sportsnet’s Eric Francis, that he fully intends to use the cap room freed up by the Michael Frolik trade and went as far as to call that the return in the trade and not the fourth-round pick they received. Calgary didn’t retain any of his $4.3MM cap hit in the move which puts them with nearly $5MM in total cap room to work with between now and the deadline.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Nashville Predators

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Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2019-20 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Nashville Predators

Current Cap Hit: $80,165,476 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

D Dante Fabbro (two years, $925K)
F Rem Pitlick (one year, $925K)
F Eeli Tolvanen (two years, $894K)

Potential Bonuses

Tolvanen: $2.85MM
Fabbro: $850K

The team has a few players with entry-level contracts who could make an immediate impact. Fabbro is the obvious one, especially after the team traded away P.K. Subban to New Jersey in a cap-saving move. Fabbro, the team’s first-round pick in 2016, finally signed in late March after three seasons at Boston University, playing in four regular season games, followed by six playoff games, combining for one goal and two points in amongst those 10 games. Now with Subban gone, the team has to hope that Fabbro will be ready to immediately take over the open top-four spot in the team’s defense. If not the team could have some issues at that spot. The team also inked Pitlick, the team’s third-rounder in 2016, after three years at the University of Minnesota. After tallying 47 goals in three years, the team hopes that Pitlick can make his mark on the team immediately.

Tolvanen, who dominated in the KHL at 18 years of age, failed to make the Predators team last year and spent most of his season with the Milwaukee Admirals in the AHL, scoring 15 goals and 35 points in 58 games and will try to force his way into the Predators lineup this year with a good training camp.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F Mikael Granlund ($5.75MM, UFA)
F Craig Smith ($4.25MM, UFA)
D Roman Josi ($4MM, UFA)
D Dan Hamhuis ($1.25MM, UFA)
F Austin Watson ($1.1MM, UFA)
F Rocco Grimaldi ($1MM, UFA)
F Miikka Salomaki ($750K, UFA)
F Daniel Carr ($700K, UFA)
D Matt Irwin ($675K, UFA)
D Yannick Weber ($675K, UFA)
F Frederick Gaudreau ($667K, UFA)

The most well documented story is the Predators’ desire to lock up Josi to a long-term deal. The 29-year-old has proven to be an excellent defensive blueliner, but has also shown off quite a bit of offense, putting up 40 or more points for the past six seasons, including a 56-point performance last year. Josi has indicated that he wants to stay in Nashville, but evidently is waiting to see how the restricted free agent market pans out before signing any deal.

With significant cap issues coming up over the next few years, the Predators will have to make key decisions on what they want to do with Granlund and Smith. Nashville acquired Granlund at the trade deadline last year, swapping a younger Kevin Fiala for the 27-year-old, who will be a free agent at the end of the season. Granlund, who scored 47 goals in his two previous seasons, stepped back last year, scoring just 16 goals last season and only one of those in 16 games with Nashville. If Granlund can return to his 25-goal ways, the Predators are likely to find a way to keep him in the future, but another poor season could end their relationship early. Smith is a different situation. He’s been a 20-goal scorer for five of his last six seasons, but will be 31 when he signs his next deal. The question is whether the team wants to lock him up when he’s on the wrong side of 30.

Most of the other players listed here are depth options, with a number of bottom-pairing forwards and defensemen.

Two Years Remaining

G Pekka Rinne ($5MM, UFA)
F Nick Bonino ($4.1MM, UFA)
G Juuse Saros ($1.5MM, UFA)
D Steven Santini ($1.42MM, RFA)

The next two years could be the final two for Rinne, who will be 38 at that time. The veteran goaltender and Vezina Trophy winner put up another impressive season last year with a 30-19-4 record and a .918 save percentage. He will likely carry the load for the next two years, but Saros, the team’s goaltender of the future, will likely see more and more games before taking over as the Predators’ No. 1 goaltender in 2021-22. Saros played 31 games last season and while posting a 2.62 GAA, he did sport a .915 save percentage and should eventually get an extension.

Bonino was brought in from Pittsburgh to be the team’s third-string center and jumpstart the team’s bottom-six. He has done that, but also has found himself dropped down to the fourth line in the meantime and at $4.1MM, that’s a lot of money to be paying a bottom-line player. The only long-term hope, is that room is made so that Bonino, who posted 17 goals and 35 points last season, can return to his third-line role eventually.

Three Years Remaining

F Filip Forsberg ($6MM, UFA)
D Mattias Ekholm ($3.75MM, UFA)
F Calle Jarnkrok ($2MM, UFA)

The team has a solid bargain going with Forsberg making just $6MM per season. The Predators have gotten impressive production out of the winger, who posted 28 goals and 50 points last season (surprisingly his worst season of his career so far) and there is still hope that the 25-year-old may take his game up another notch and return to his 30-goal, 60-point mark that he has reached twice in his career or even take his game even further. However, the skilled winger remains an impressive player at a reasonable price for the next three years.

Ekholm may be the biggest bargain of the lot as the 29-year-old is one of the most underrated players in the league, showing off great defensive skill as well as posting 40 points for the first time in his career last year. Ekholm scored eight goals and 44 points last year and at under $4MM, the team has a cheap top-four player for quite a few years to come. Jarnkrok also gives the team a discounted player as the depth winger is a solid value at just $2MM per year.

Four Or More Years Remaining

F Matt Duchene ($8MM through 2025-26)
F Ryan Johansen ($8MM through 2024-25)
D Ryan Ellis ($6.25MM through 2026-27)
F Kyle Turris ($6MM through 2023-24)
F Viktor Arvidsson ($4.25MM through 2023-24)
F Colton Sissons ($2.86MM through 2025-26)

The team had to finally pay out to get themselves the No. 2 center that they desired. They thought they did that a few years ago when the traded for Turris and extended him, but so far that match hasn’t been what the team hoped for. However, after moving out Subban, the team had enough cap room to replace him on the roster with their biggest need, which will be filled by Duchene, who should be the perfect top-six center the team has coveted for year. Duchene is coming off a 31-goal, 70-point season and if he can continue to post numbers like that should be a solid value as well at $8MM per year. Turris, on the other hand, now moves down to the third-line center position and the team has high hopes that the 30-year-old will rebound from a seven-goal, 23-point disappointment last year. However, after a solid showing at the World Championships this summer, the team hopes he can rebound.

It’s hard to believe that people talk about the Nashville defense constantly, but only one of them is signed longer than three years. However, Ellis signed his long-term deal, which looks like a bargain for the team. The 28-year-old broke 40 points for the first time in his career and with his exceptional defense, is going to be a key member of their blueline for a long time.

Johansen’s goals have been down since coming over from Columbus, but he continues to be a dominant passer and put up a career high in assists this year with 50 as well as 64 points, the second-best of his career. The 27-year-old should only get better. Arvidsson is also locked up long-term as the 26-year-old scored a career-high 34 goals last season and has proven to be a top-line winger and even looks like a bargain at $4.25MM. Sissons also was just recently signed to a long-term, seven-year contract at a low price as the team believes he should be part of their bottom-six for a long time.

 

Buyouts

None

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Still To Sign

None

Best Value: Ekholm
Worst Value: Turris

Looking Ahead

The Nashville Predators have been put together impressively, using their no-tax situation to their advantage as players have made it clear that they want to stay in Nashville. The team has a solid core, but after a disappointing playoffs, the team must prove that they can return to their old dominance, especially in a challenging division like the Central, and continue to be one of the top teams in the league. Adding another top-six center should help and if they can get the most out of their players, the Predators should be a dominant team for years, but if head coach Peter Laviolette can’t get some of his players to take the next step in their development, they may be in trouble too.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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