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Free Agent Focus: Nashville Predators

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Free agency opens in six days and there are quite a few prominent players set to hit the open market, especially after today’s qualifying offer deadline. Those who received offers and remain restricted still need to be re-signed as well. Nashville has only two such RFA’s, but plenty of UFA’s in need of attention. Here’s a closer look at their free agent situation:

Key Restricted Free Agents: F Colton Sissons – Sissons proved that the 2017-18 season and bookend postseasons were no fluke with his performance this year. Sissons emerged on the scene during the Predators’ 2017 Stanley Cup run and he has not let up since. Not only did the 25-year-old set career highs with 15 goals and 30 points this season, he continued to show that he is a high-end defensive forward. It was a dominant year at the face-off dot for Sissons, who also led the team in hits and was second in blocked shots among forwards. Sissons was a force in the bottom-six and the team would like to have him there long term. Nashville is famous for signing budding young players to team-friendly long-term deals and Sissons is a prime candidate to be the next in line. With offensive totals that are still relatively low and a role on the team that could still technically be considered “fourth-line”, Sissons could be taken for a good rate on a long-term deal only to continue blossoming into an elite two-way center.

F Rocco Grimaldi – After bouncing around from Florida to Colorado and not being made a qualifying offer last summer, Grimaldi signed with Nashville and finally found a team willing to give him consistent ice time and opportunity. The 5’6″ forward responded with a career-high 13 points and 53 games, as well as some impressive possession metrics. Grimaldi is limited by his size and may never be a full-time player, especially in the more aggressive Western Conference, but the Predators solved the puzzle of how best to use him last year and he will likely be an affordable extension that can continue to be a capable depth piece. His mere $715K qualifying offer may even be a fair place to start.

Other RFAs: None

Key Unrestricted Free Agents: F Wayne Simmonds – Simmonds is a key free agent… for other teams. The Predators have already announced that they will not bring back the 30-year-old power forward. Though really, who can blame them? After coming over from Philadelphia at the trade deadline, Simmonds recorded just three points in 17 regular season games and was benched for all but two of the Predators’ playoff games. It was a bad fit for both sides and a continued partnership seemed like a long shot. Simmonds may be slowing down, but the interest in him is reportedly still heating up. The respected veteran will be playing in the NHL for years to come still, just not in Nashville.

F Brian Boyle – Boyle, on the other hand, was a trade acquisition who did work out and there could be mutual interest in an extension. The 34-year-old did not produce much on the score sheet, but excelled defensively, as he always have. A big, physical presence who plays a smart defensive game, Boyle is the time of veteran fourth liner that can put a contender over the top. At the right price, Nashville wouldn’t mind being that defender. However, Boyle will have to come down from his expiring $2.55MM cap hit to remain a Predator, but other teams may be willing to maintain that salary.

Other UFAs: F Phil Di Giuseppe, F Tyler Gaudet, F Justin Kirkland, G Tom McCollum, F Cody McLeod, F Zac Rinaldo, F Cole Schneider

Projected Cap Space: Moving a $9MM cap hit off the books in exchange for next to no salary in return will do wonders for your cap space. Following the P.K. Subban trade, the Predators now have an estimated $13.2MM in cap space accounting for 21 players, a few of whom will not be on the opening night roster. That should leave the team with more than enough room to get Sissons and Grimaldi under contract, as well as bring in a big-name free agent (read: Matt Duchene).

Latest On Matt Duchene, Nashville Predators

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The Nashville Predators cleared a whole ton of cap space over the weekend, sending star defenseman P.K. Subban to the New Jersey Devils without taking any notable salaries back. That sets them up to be players in free agency once again, and most expect them to focus on Columbus Blue Jackets forward Matt Duchene. Duchene has long been a target of Predators GM David Poile, and Chris Johnston of Sportsnet has faith that the team will eventually get a deal done. Speaking on the 31 Thoughts podcast, Johnston nearly guaranteed that Duchene will go to Nashville in free agency:

100%. I will admit that I’m putting myself out there a bit because it would be foolish to say that he might not hear something in free agency that could change his mind, that someone might call him or his agents at CAA and offer an amount of money that obviously I don’t think Nashville is willing to give him. But this has been such a long dance between him and the Predators. No secret of his love of country music, of that city itself where he owns a home I believe. The Preds have had their eye on him and were involved in the trade discussions with Colorado going back a couple of years when he ended up in Ottawa. To me, I really don’t see this playing out any other way–but there is the occasional surprise in our business.

Duchene, 28, can now speak with any team during the unrestricted free agent interview period and assess his market for this summer. The veteran center is coming off a career-high 31 goals and 70 points in 2018-19 despite splitting that time between the Ottawa Senators and Blue Jackets. His performance in the playoffs for Columbus was exceptional, laying to rest some of the doubt that has followed him throughout his career. Despite playing in 727 regular season games over ten seasons, Duchene has now suited up just 18 times in the NHL playoffs.

With Kevin Hayes setting the UFA market at center with a seven-year, $50MM earlier this month, Duchene can look forward to a huge payday wherever he signs. Though he is almost a year older, Duchene represents such a huge upgrade on the offensive side of the puck that he very well could be looking at a deal worth millions more per season. That kind of deal was impossible for the Predators before moving Subban, and still may require them to move out another contract or two at some point down the road. Kyle Turris is the obvious candidate to go, especially if the team is bringing in Duchene to take over that second-line center role.

NHL Sets Salary Cap at $81.5MM for 2019-20

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The NHL and NHLPA have made it official, as TSN’s Bob McKenzie reports that the NHL salary cap for 2019-20 will be $81.5MM, as many had recently projected with the salary floor being set at $60.2MM.

That isn’t good news for teams that are at or near the cap as many teams had hoped that the cap might be closer to $83MM like it was projected several weeks ago. However, recently rumors had been rumbling that the number would be closer to $82MM and potentially as low as $81.5MM, which is what it ended up being, which is a worst-case scenario for teams hoping for that extra space to maneuver.

That could prompt more teams that need to open up cap space to make cost-cutting moves. The league has seen some of that already today with the Nashville Predators unloading the $9MM contract of defenseman P.K. Subban in order to free up space to extend defenseman Roman Josi and potentially sign a free-agent center such as Matt Duchene in the coming week. The Toronto Maple Leafs sent a future first-rounder to Carolina also today in order to unload the final year of Patrick Marleau and his $6.25MM contract. The Tampa Bay Lightning also unloaded J.T. Miller’s $5.25MM contract that still has four more years on it for a future first-rounder as well. Other teams that are in trouble and could be making similar cap-saving moves include the Vegas Golden Knights, San Jose Sharks, Pittsburgh Penguins and Washington Capitals.

The announcement, however, could be big news for teams with plenty of cap space to sell. The Devils acquired a top-four defenseman for a very little return, while Vancouver added a top-six forward in Miller. There are six teams underneath the ceiling of $60.2MM, including the Philadelphia Flyers, Winnipeg Jets, New Jersey Devils, Columbus Blue Jackets, Ottawa Senators and the Colorado Avalanche. Several of those team have significant free agents to sign, however, including Winnipeg, Philadelphia and Colorado, but there are many teams that could take advantage, now more than ever, of some of the teams who have already capped themselves out. In fact, Columbus general manager Jarmo Kekalainen was thrilled at the cap number.

“It doesn’t affect us. I like it,” Kekalainen said (via NHL.com’s Dan Rosen). “It’s going to squeeze some teams some more. … They’re going to have to solve their problems and maybe we can be a solution.”

Free Agent Notes: Salary Cap, Marner, Gusev, Duchene, Dillon

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With rumors of the 2019-20 salary cap possibly being lower than the $83MM that teams initially expected, TSN’s Pierre LeBrun reports that an NHLPA spokesperson told him that there should be an announcement on the salary cap this evening.

With talks that the salary cap could be as low as $81.5MM, LeBrun writes that the NHLPA is taking their time to weigh that number. That number is expected to have a significant effect on teams, especially on those that are tight to the cap as that leaves them even less room to work with and could force teams to dump salaries even more than ever.

  • LeBrun also tweets that the agent for Toronto Maple Leafs winger Mitch Marner, Darren Ferris, is expecting to hear from other teams on Wednesday, the day the RFA speaking period begins. With plenty of talks of high demands and a suggested willingness to sign an offer sheet, Toronto Maple Leafs general manager Kyle Dubas has his hands full. Dubas and Ferris did not meet this week in Vancouver and Ferris is expected to leave the draft for home, although there is plenty of time for both Dubas and Ferris to meet next week.
  • While many fans of the Vegas Golden Knights have been looking forward to seeing KHL star forward Nikita Gusev play this season, TSN’s Darren Dreger suggests that the restricted free-agent may not end up getting the chance. With plenty of cap concerns, Vegas may not have enough money to sign the 26-year-old winger, and the Golden Knights may opt to trade him to relieve some of those cap issues. Dreger adds that multiple teams have inquired about Gusev, who currently would be penciled in on their third line and could be expendable for the right price. Gusev signed a one-year deal, $925K in April of this year, but he didn’t appear in a game for the Golden Knights. He won the KHL MVP award in 2018 and has scored 63 goals in the last three season for SKA St. Petersburg.
  • The Athletic’s Craig Custance reports that he has heard there won’t be any deal between the Columbus Blue Jackets and unrestricted free agent center Matt Duchene before the speaking period opens on Sunday. While that isn’t a major surprise, of all the Blue Jackets’ big-named free agents, Duchene was their best hope to re-signing. However, especially after the recent P.K. Subban deal, it is believed that Nashville has become the front-runner for Duchene’s services.
  • Bruce Garrioch of the Ottawa Sun reports that the San Jose Sharks would be open to moving defenseman Brendan Dillon for the right price. Dillon, who is currently slated to play on the top defensive pairing next to Brent Burns is making $3.27MM, but with significant cap issues coming this offseason, the team could use the extra cap room to try and make sure it can sign all of its top free agents, including restricted free agent Timo Meier, as well as unrestricted free agents Joe Pavelski, Joe Thornton, Joonas Donskoi and Gustav Nyquist, although the latter two are less likely to return.

Senators Notes: No. 19 Pick, Paajarvi, Hogberg

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Perhaps excited by the extension of Anthony Duclair and the additional second-round pick added by the Erik Karlsson contract, both occurring earlier today, Ottawa Senators GM Pierre Dorion was very positive and open when speaking with the media today. Per The Ottawa Sun’s Bruce Garrioch, Dorion began by discussing the team’s plans for the upcoming NHL Draft. The Senators will travel to Vancouver tomorrow to begin meetings ahead of the round one of the draft on Friday night, but Dorion has already had many conversations with rival GM’s. Dorion states that he has already spoken with multiple teams about possibly moving up in the first round from No. 19. The Senators are without their own first-rounder, owed to the Colorado Avalanche from last year’s Matt Duchene trade, but the team was fortunately able to recoup a top pick from the Columbus Blue Jackets in their own sale of Duchene. With that said, No. 19 is not exactly where a rebuilding team would like their first pick to be, even though Ottawa already has a deep, talented pipeline. Following the Karlsson news, CapFriendly reports that the Senators now have 28 picks in the next three drafts, including 16 in the top three rounds. That is plenty of ammunition if Dorion decides that he wants to move up the board on Friday. Teams like the Philadelphia Flyers and Vancouver Canucks have hinted at their willingness to move back, while the Colorado Avalanche may also be open to moving their second pick in the round, No. 16. If Dorion is intent on moving up, he should be able to find a taker.

  • Dorion also made the somewhat surprising reveal that the Senators are not pursuing a contract extension with free agent forward Magnus Paajarvi. Paajarvi, 28, has spent the past season and half with Ottawa after coming over from the St. Louis Blues on waivers in 2017-18. Although the 2009 tenth overall pick has never been able to live up to his draft stock nor his rookie year production, Paajarvi has grown into a solid two-way player and enjoyed the best season since his first in Ottawa this past year. Paajarvi seemed like a safe bet to stay with the Senators, especially given his key role on the penalty kill, but Dorion has other plans. He did say that talks continue with fellow UFA’s Oscar Lindberg and Brian Gibbons, both of whom performed well after deadline trades, as well as RFA defenseman Cody Ceci. As for Paajarvi, he’ll likely land on his feet elsewhere in the league once free agency opens.
  • Finally, Dorion announced that a contract resolution with RFA goaltender Marcus Hogberg is imminent. Hogberg is expected to sign with the team this week after rumors emerged early this off-season that he was considering a move to Europe. It remains possible that Hogberg could still be loaned elsewhere, as his signing only adds to a logjam of keepers in both Ottawa and AHL Belleville. The Senators expect to enter next season with a tandem of veteran Craig Anderson and returnee Anders Nilsson. As of now, Mike Condon will also be in the mix. In the minors, the team hopes to give top goalie prospect Filip Gustavsson, college standout Joey Daccord, and now Hogberg the time in net they need to develop properly. If that is going to be impossible, even with a likely Condon departure, Hogberg is the top candidate to be loaned away, despite his advantage in pro experience.

Erik Karlsson Re-Signs With San Jose Sharks

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UPDATE: The Sharks have now officially announced the Karlsson extension and it is worth even more than previously believed. Karlsson is set to make $11.5MM on average over an eight-year term for a total of $92MM, according to CapFriendly. That includes $53MM in signing bonuses, largely front loaded in the early years for potential lockout protection, as well as in the final two years to dissuade a buyout. The contract also includes a full No-Movement Clause. There is little doubt remaining that San Jose is all in on Karlsson given these terms, which make Karlsson the highest paid defenseman in NHL history and behind only Connor McDavid and Auston Matthews overall. The Sharks simply have to hope that he can get back to full health and remain that way as long as possible, while those teams that missed out on a chance to court him this summer have to hope that the somewhat underwhelming replacement options don’t drastically increase their asking price.

 

It’s been an ongoing narrative early this off-season that the San Jose Sharks were willing to do whatever it takes to re-sign Erik Karlsson, after the all-world defenseman played well – when healthy – in his first season with the team. Karlsson is considered not just the top defenseman on the free agent market, but arguably the biggest name overall, and that’s taking into account his injury concerns. Few defensemen in the NHL can do what a healthy Karlsson can offensively and the 29-year-old was set to cash in on the open market. Yet, it seems that GM Doug Wilson and the Sharks have convinced Karlsson that he doesn’t need to test the waters to find a considerable contract and a winning team. TSN insider Bob McKenzie reports that “all signs are pointing” to Karlsson returning to San Jose and colleague Pierre LeBrun follows it up by stating that “a deal is indeed done.”

McKenzie is hardly the first to report that extension talks were getting close between the two sides, but when the respected hockey mind makes a pronouncement like this, it generally carries significant weight. LeBrun thus checked in himself and found previous reports that the two sides were talking about a contract in the neighborhood of Drew Doughty’s eight-year, $88MM contract to be true. LeBrun believes that is will be an eight-year deal worth more than Doughty’s $11MM AAV. This would make Karlsson’s cap hit the third-largest in NHL history.

Unless his negotiating rights were to be traded prior to July 1st, the Sharks were always going to be the only team that could offer Karlsson that valuable eight year. However, it is likely their willingness to move into the double-digit AAV realm that pushed negotiations closer to a resolution. Especially in a season in which Karlsson missed 29 games due to injury, there was plenty of speculation that his value would take a hit on the free agent market, resulting in lesser term or at least a lower dollar value over a long-term deal. Instead, the Sharks seemingly plan to keep Karlsson in town by offering him the same contract he likely would have landed prior to this past season and hope that recent groin surgery solves the nagging soft tissue damage that cost the superstar blue liner so much time this season.

Assuming this extension becomes official shortly, it will have wide-ranging effects. San Jose cannot afford to re-sign Karlsson to this contract and also re-up restricted free agents Timo Meier and Kevin Labanc without making some sacrifices. Priority unrestricted free agents like Joe Pavelski, Joe Thornton, Gustav Nyquist, and Joonas Donskoi cannot all return if any can. Signing even one of those players may force the Sharks to move out other salary from the roster. Additionally, per the terms of the original Karlsson trade, San Jose will also surrender a 2021 second-round pick to the Ottawa Senators in exchange for extending their acquisition. As for the rest of the free agent market, one of the top names is now off the board. The demand and thus the price for the next tier of defensemen – Jake Gardiner and Tyler Myers – just went up, as did the cost of bringing in a big name like Artemi Panarin or Matt Duchene after both Karlsson and Jeff Skinner received larger contracts than expected.

The greater story here though is that the Sharks’ Stanley Cup window, which some saw as closing if Karlsson, Pavelski, and Thornton were all to leave, has now been extended with the re-signing of one of the game’s best defensemen, so long as he can stay healthy. With Karlsson, Brent Burns, and Marc-Edouard Vlasic together on the blue line for at least six more years and core forwards like Logan Couture, Evander Kane, Tomas Hertl, and soon Meier locked up, the team has strength at both ends and will continue to be a top competitor year in and year out.

 

Snapshots: Blue Jackets, Sharks, Avalanche

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GM Jarmo Kekalainen and the Blue Jackets knew what they were getting into when they held on to top impending free agents Artemi Panarin and Sergei Bobrovksy, despite substantial hints that both planned to depart, and then went out and added another valued UFA in Matt Duchene at the NHL Trade Deadline. Columbus went all in, and while they didn’t win or even reach the Stanley Cup, they did succeed in winning the franchise’s first ever playoff round. Now, as they get set to potentially watch several star player walk away as free agents, Kekalainen and company are going to either squeeze every last drop out of those UFA’s or at least won’t make it any easier for them to jump to rival teams. TSN’s Pierre LeBrun reports that the Blue Jackets have declined to give Panarin and Bobrovksy permission to talk to other teams about a sign-and-trade possibility. They have also kept the price of acquiring their negotiating rights high; LeBrun speculates the team is asking for a second-round pick. As the June 23rd UFA negotiation period approaches, and not long after it the start of free agency on July 1st, it seems Panarin and Bobrovsky are likely to remain Blue Jackets until the very last minute, unless a team ponies up. As for Duchene, the Blue Jackets remain interested in re-signing him, so similar rumors haven’t started yet, but don’t expect the deadline addition to be treated any differently if it comes to that.

  • Columbus has likely lost hope of re-signing their top free agents, but San Jose is still holding out when it comes to Erik Karlsson. Karlsson is set to be the top defenseman on the market, but the Sharks would like him to skip that opportunity in favor of remaining with the team. The Athletic’s Kevin Kurz writes that the two sides continue to work on an extension, with terms rumored to be close to the eight-year, $88MM contract signed by Drew Doughty of the rival Los Angeles Kings. Barring a trade in the coming weeks, only San Jose can offer Karlsson that eighth year, which may be even more valuable to the veteran defenseman given his recurring injury issues this season. Kurz agrees that the market may have cooled for Karlsson, so a long-term offer from the Sharks will very likely be the best deal he gets. This makes his decision less about salary and more about whether San Jose is where Karlsson wants to potentially spend the rest of his career.
  • Misinformation is very common in draft and free agency season, so it should come as little surprise that one Denver source says the Avalanche are interested in drafting defenseman Bowen Byram just days after another said they weren’t. Byram is undoubtedly the best defenseman in the draft class, so no team with the chance to draft him is going to totally ignore him. The WHL product could go as early as No. 3 to the Chicago Blackhawks, but likely won’t get any farther than No. 6 to the Detroit Red Wings. Colorado falls squarely in the middle there at fourth overall and will surely consider Byram. But if Mike Chambers of The Denver Post is to be believed, the Avs will take the “best player available” route with their first of two first-round picks and would select Byram if he’s there. We won’t know for sure how it all plays out for just over one more week.

Free Agent Focus: Columbus Blue Jackets

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Free agency is now less than a month away from opening up and there are quite a few prominent players set to hit the open market while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign. Columbus does have a few important restricted free agents, but it’s the unrestricted free agents that have dominated the press over the last year.

Key Restricted Free Agents: D Zach Werenski – The defenseman wraps up his entry-level deal and now is expected to get quite a pay raise after making $1.775MM last season. The top pairing defenseman may not have the accolades and numbers that partner Seth Jones carries, but with the way the market has been rising, the 21-year-old blueliner could seriously cash in this summer and could conceivably make even more than Jones’ current $5.4MM per year deal. Regardless, Werenski had a solid season for the Blue Jackets, posting 11 goals and 44 points and has scored 38 goals over three seasons, an impressive feat for a young defenseman. Werenski also added a goal and six points in 10 games during Columbus’ playoff run this season.

D – Ryan Murray – Other than playing 82 games back in 2015-16, Murray’s biggest problem has been staying healthy. Other than that one season, the most games the 25-year-old has played was 66 and that was back in his rookie campaign. The talented blueliner played in 56 games this past season, but was hampered with a back injury for quite some time as well. This is Murray’s last year as a restricted free agency as he could become an unrestricted free agent in 2020-21 and could opt to depart. Although Murray has shown talent, Columbus might have a problem handing the former second-overall pick in 2012 a long-term deal if he can’t stay healthy. That’s why Murray could be a solid trade candidate, most recently to Chicago.

Other RFAs: D Adam Clendening, F Markus Hannikainen, D Scott Harrington, G Joonas Korpisalo, F Ryan MacInnis, F Sonny Milano, F Eric Robinson, F Justin Scott, F Lukas Sedlak, D Doyle Somerby, F Sam Vigneault

Key Unrestricted Free Agents: F Artemi Panarin – The 27-year-old has been everything that Columbus had hoped for when the Blue Jackets traded for him two years ago. Panarin scored 55 goals and 114 points over those two seasons, but it became apparently clear that he had little interest in signing any sort of extension and wished to move on when he hit unrestricted free agency. Rather than trade him away, the team chose instead to hold onto him and bulk up for the playoffs, which did allow Columbus to advance to the second round of the playoffs for the first time ever. Unfortunately, the team has no chance to sign him as he has quickly become the most sought-after free agent, most likely to sign a deal with either Florida or the New York Rangers.

G Sergei Bobrovsky – Unfortunately for Bobrovsky, the team is in the exact same pickle that they are with Panarin. The long-time goaltender has been one of the faces of the franchise for years in Columbus and while many initially thought he just was holding out for a Carey Price-like contract, it has been quite clear that he too intends to leave the Blue Jackets and sign elsewhere with many people believing that he might choose to sign with Florida as well. Regardless, Bobrovsky becomes the most highly-touted goalie on the free-agent market. While his regular season numbers took a minor dip with a 2.58 GAA and a .913 save percentage, the 30-year-old netminder finally showed some skill in the playoffs with a 2.41 GAA and a .925 save percentage in 10 appearances.

F – Matt Duchene – If there is one big-name free agent that Columbus might be able to retain, it will be Duchene, who is at least considering staying with the Blue Jackets. Unfortunately, there are also a large number of teams that are interested in signing him as well, which could make a signing tough. Acquired at the trade deadline from Ottawa for several prospects and their 2019 first-round pick, Duchene added a second-line center presence that helped solidify the team’s top six and between the two teams combined for 31 goals and 70 points. The down side of signing him is the team would lose their 2020 first-rounder as well, making it even more of a challenging decisions for the franchise.

Other UFAs: G Jean-Francois Berube, D Tommy Cross, F Ryan Dzingel, G Keith Kinkaid, F Mark Letestu, D Adam McQuaid

Projected Cap Space: Cap space is definitely not an issue in Columbus as the team is projected to have more than $32MM in cap room. The problem is the team is likely to lose all four of their top unrestricted free agents and must find a way to attract other free agents without having to overpay them. However, that will be a challenge for general manager Jarmo Kekalainen, who has done an excellent job in recent years to compete in a small market. Regardless, the team must find a way to add a top talent and hope that its prospect depth can keep the team above water for the next couple of years.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Arizona, Columbus To Aggressively Pursue Matt Duchene

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While the Matt Duchene rumors have been quite exciting already, they show no sign of slowing down. Despite whispers that the top free-agent center is interested in joining the Nashville Predators, more teams keep coming up. The most recent interest comes from the Arizona Coyotes. The Athletic’s Pierre LeBrun (subscription required) writes that the Coyotes, searching for another top-line center, intend to aggressively pursue Duchene, while the Columbus Blue Jackets haven’t given up on re-signing their deadline acquisition either.

The 28-year-old scored 31 goals and 70 points between Ottawa and Columbus last season, but a solid postseason in which he registered five goals and 10 points in 10 playoff games was enough to make him one of the most sought-after impending free agents, especially with teams in need at the center position.

Arizona used Derek Stepan as their top-line center this season, but the team would be better served moving Stepan to a second-line role and inserting a new name into the No. 1 spot, giving them two solid options down the middle and allowing Arizona to utilize other forwards like Nick Schmaltz and Alex Galchenyuk at the wing position. Arizona, which narrowly fell short of the playoffs this season, has made it clear that they want to upgrade their team and become playoff relevant after years sitting in the Pacific Division cellar.

As for Columbus, LeBrun writes that the franchise is still negotiating with Duchene’s agent, Pat Brisson, to bring the center back. One question that comes up is whether the team would be willing to offer eight years, and upwards of $80MM to Duchene, especially when they would also have to give Ottawa their 2020 first-round pick if they successfully re-sign him. While many have suggested that being aggressive at the trade deadline was good for Columbus, the team would look even better if it could retain at least one of Duchene, Artemi Panarin, Sergei Bobrovsky, or Ryan Dzingel this summer.

UFA Notes: Duchene, Smith, Simmonds, Vanek

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Speaking about the impending unrestricted free agent class on Sportsnet’s “31 Thoughts Podcast“, Elliott Friedman updated the statuses of several prominent UFA’s-to-be. Of course, few names will draw as much attention (and money) as Matt Duchene. Following a 70-point season and point-per-game postseason, there is little doubt the Duchene is the best available center and will soon cash in on a contract worth upwards of $60-70MM. What remains is simply who has the means and the interest to make that offer to Duchene. Although they would have to move out salary, Friedman echoes the sentiment that the Nashville Predators should not be counted out of the Duchene sweepstakes until a deal is done. The mutual interest between the two sides is well-documented, but the hurdles of clearing the necessary space remain. As such, Friedman also mentions that the Montreal Candiens are expected to be one of the front-runners for Duchene. The Habs have approximately $11.7MM in projected cap space with almost their entire 2018-19 roster locked up and are simply looking to add pieces to help them get into the playoffs after narrowly missing out this season. Duchene is the top center they need and fortunately can afford and Friedman hears that there is interest.

  • Friedman believes that the goalie market will be more active than many realize. With the growing trend of having a 1A-1B tandem or at least a well-rested starter, the value of backup goalies is going up and Friedman feels a veteran player like Mike Smith could be a beneficiary. Smith, 37, endured one of the worst seasons of his career in 2018-19, but played much better in the postseason despite the Calgary Flames’ early exit. There is still a chance that Smith could stay in Calgary and continue his tandem with David Rittich. However, the Flames are reportedly considering an upgrade. Yet, Smith could be of value to many other teams looking for an established veteran to be their backup. Smith is no longer a 50-game or maybe even 40-game goaltender, but Friedman feels he still has the pedigree to land a significant deal. Of course, if the goalie market is active, that means others like Semyon Varlamov, Brian Elliott, Cam Talbot, or Curtis McElhinney will be in the running for those priority backup jobs as well.
  • Another player whose market may be greater than once expected is power forward Wayne Simmonds. Simmonds had a dreadful year, recording just 30 points on the season, his lowest total since his rookie campaign. Just three of those points came after he was traded to the Nashville Predators and then Simmonds missed a chance at redemption as injury kept him out of all but two of the Predators’ postseason games. With his stock at its lowest, many were reasonably expecting Simmonds to draw considerably less interest this off-season than he may have just one year ago. However, Friedman warns that the performance of a player like the St. Louis Blues’ Pat Maroon may change that. Maroon has shown that hard-nosed, physical forwards still have a place in the game, particularly in the playoffs. Friedman feels Maroon – who is also a UFA – has reinvigorated the market for similar players, such as Simmonds or an experienced two-way forward like Derick Brassard, who himself had a down year. Simmonds is still unlikely to get the kind of contract he would have just a year or two ago, but he won’t be unemployed for very long despite his poor season.
  • Friedman wonders what the market will be like for veteran forward Thomas Vanek. After back-to-back seasons of being a valuable trade deadline commodity, Vanek finally stayed put this year with the Detroit Red Wings after requesting not to be dealt. Yet, Vanek finds himself on the move again as a free agent. The 35-year-old saw a major drop-off in production this year and is unlikely to be a fit back in Detroit. In fact, Friedman doesn’t see an obvious fit anywhere for Vanek, who has played for eight different teams in his long and successful NHL career. A veteran “hired gun” who also isn’t keen on moving is a tough player to fit and Friedman says there’s a chance that Vanek is done.

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