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Atlantic Notes: Johnson, Tatar

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Will the length of Tyler Johnson’s contract come back to haunt the Bolts? The Hockey News’ Ken Campbell writes that while he’s only 26 and the numbers were below his value, Johnson may very well already be in decline. Though his numbers were would have been similar had they gone to arbitration, Campbell wonders if Johnson will put up the numbers that got him the deal. Should he get 55-60 points per season, Campbell believes it to be worth the money, calling it a steal. But if his regression continues? He just hopes for general manager Steve Yzerman’s sake that the Jonathan Drouin deal doesn’t come back to haunt him, either.

It’s no secret that Johnson has struggled to stay healthy. His numbers have fallen steadily since his career year in 2014-15 where he put up 72 points. His playoff numbers in consecutive seasons were also impressive, and most likely what secured him the contract. Campbell also believes that Johnson is dependent upon his linemates, and in spite of averaging 53 points in his first four seasons, there’s a lot riding on it for him, and the Lightning.

  • There’s more interesting takes coming out of Detroit regarding Tomas Tatar. The curious case of his negotiations began with him saying if he only gets a year, he’s done in Detroit. General manager Ken Holland all but shrugged it off, which led many to wonder just how motivated the Red Wings were to getting a long term deal done. The Detroit Free Press’ Helene St. James reports that the Red Wings are wary of giving Tatar a seven-year deal. This is somewhat understandable in the cap era with the exception of one point–Holland has been more than happy to offer long term deals to players who haven’t exactly produced to warrant them–with Justin Abdelkader being the best example. So with Tatar, it’s curious. The Detroit News’ Gregg Krupa goes a step further, writing that it’s essentially “cap malpractice” if Detroit isn’t paying him because they’re too bloated from other contracts. St. James adds that Tatar hasn’t produced like T.J. Oshie, or Tyler Johnson, but to be fair, Tatar hasn’t been surrounded with the talent the aforementioned have. Further, as Krupa points out, that if a deal isn’t worked out, it’s more evidence of roster mismanagement. Once the model franchise of the NHL, the Red Wings decision making continues to baffle. The team isn’t much improved from last season, they’re strapped financially, and they’re fighting with their leading scorer on a deal. It will be interesting to see how ownership reacts should the Red Wings struggle out of the gate, especially with Holland making it a priority to make the playoffs.

Lightning Sign Dan Girardi

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The Tampa Bay Lightning have added to their defensive corps on the first day of free agency, signing recently bought out New York Rangers defenseman Dan Girardi to a two-year, $6MM deal, according to TSN’s Bob McKenzie. Girardi, who was scheduled to make $4MM with the Rangers this season, will now make $3MM yearly from the Lightning plus $1.1MM annually from his buyout, which puts him over what he would have made in New York.

Girardi is a polarizing player in the NHL. Many, including plenty of Rangers fans, felt that he was over-rated and overpaid in New York and is incapable of being a top-four defenseman in the NHL any more. Others rave about Girardi’s character and leadership and feel that he is a valuable asset. Regardless, Girardi will likely play a bottom-pair role for Tampa, but will be well-compensated to do so. The Lightning simply hope they are not the newest team to overpay Girardi and can instead get the most out of the veteran.

Girardi is coming off a career-low 15 points in 2016-17 and saw a drop off in hits and blocked shots as well. However, at one point Girardi was a guaranteed 20-30 point player who excelled at the defensive aspects of the game. The only question is which version of Girardi did the Lightning just commit to?

Girardi Drawing Interest After Buy-Out

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Although he was just bought out by the New York Rangers due to meager performance relative to his pay, multiple NHL teams have shown interest in signing the 33 year-old. Detroit, who is supposedly in the middle of a rebuild, seem compelled to inquire, according to The Athletic’s Craig Custance. The Grand Rapids Griffins championship run will provide an infusion of youth who have won at the professional level, and yet the defense remains a primary concern for GM Ken Holland. Missing the playoffs for multiple seasons may not be palatable to an organization so accustomed to success. It’s uncertain as to where Girardi would slot if he did sign in Detroit. The Wings have 7 defenseman on the roster (when you include RFA Xavier Ouellet), and 4 of those have no-trade clauses.

Also heavily rumored are the Tampa Bay Lightning. Elliotte Friedman stated that the team reached out to the defender, and that it is unknown how that conversation went. Newsday’s Steve Zipay made the connection to current Bolt Ryan Callahan, himself an ex-New York Ranger, with whom Girardi has close ties. Tampa GM Steve Yzerman does seem to like the old-school defensemen, and the team does have only 4 blueliners under contract while they negotiate terms with Slater Koekkoek. The team was already linked to Kevin Shattenkirk via the Tampa Bay Times’ Joe Smith, and players such Brendan Smith and Karl Alzner could find a decent fit on a second pairing. There are certainly more marquee names available out there, but perhaps the prices will become too steep for Yzerman’s liking. Girardi would almost certainly come cheap, and Tampa seems destined to make a push in the Atlantic after a down season – so it’s not an undesirable location.

The market that has surfaced for Girardi is quite remarkable considering his circumstances. Girardi has had three consecutive poor possession seasons which crescendo-ed this year with an 8th-worst Corsi 5-0n-5 finish among all defenders. In a league which is heading in the direction of deeper, more encompassing analytics, Girardi seems to buck every trend out there. He is probably still an NHL defender, but his immobile brand of defense is losing effectiveness fast and his shot-blocking may be beginning to take a toll on his body. His skating is sub-par and his offensive capabilities are very limited. He’s a good penalty killer, but at even strength is generally a net-negative regardless of how sheltered his minutes are. Still, as a veteran on a cheap contract, he might be worth a flier to regain form on a short-term deal. With such a poor UFA offering, it seems he has some value left and should be able to find a new contract with little pain.

Golden Knights Will Not Select Young Lightning Defensemen

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It has been rumored for some time that the Tampa Bay Lightning and GM Steve Yzerman had struck a deal with the Vegas Golden Knights and GM George McPhee to steer them away from certain players. The Tampa Bay Times’ Joe Smith has added some concrete names to that speculation this afternoon, reporting that Vegas would not select young Bolts’ defensemen Jake Dotchin and Slater Koekkoek. The pair were left exposed as Tampa Bay chose to protect Norris Trophy finalist Victor Hedman, his partner Anton Stralman, and veteran Braydon Coburn. 

Dotchin, 23, skated in 35 games with the Lightning as a rookie in 2016-17 and recorded 11 points along the way. At 6’3″, 210-lbs., the bruising blue liner played major minutes for Tampa and proved to be a reliable stay-at-home option. Koekkoek, also 23, was the tenth overall pick in the 2012 NHL Draft by the Bolts, and has played in 41 career NHL games over the past three season, including 29 this past year. Although Koekkoek has been able to move the puck well and score at the AHL level, he has yet to find the same consistency and success at the NHL level. Nevertheless, he has shown promise and the Lightning were not willing to lose he or Dotchin for nothing

So what is the deal that protected the pair? Speculation earlier today from Smith was that the Lightning may be offering up the rights to prominent Russian prospect Nikita Gusev as part of the deal. Smith pondered if that would be in exchange for protecting the young defenseman or in exchange for selecting the bad contract of veteran blue liner Jason Garrison. While it still remains unknown who the Knights will take from Tampa, the confirmation that it will not be Dotchin or Koekkoek alone could mean that Gusev is on his way to Vegas, where former SKA St. Petersburg teammate Vadim Shipachyov has already signed.

 

Tampa Bay Expected To Have Side Deal With Vegas

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Joe Smith of the Tampa Bay Times is reporting that the Tampa Bay Lightning have a side deal with the Vegas Golden Knights to protect their young defensemen, and Bob McKenzie was on TSN 1050 in Toronto confirming that he’s heard for a while that Steve Yzerman has had a deal in place. With Jake Dotchin and Slater Koekkoek both left unprotected, it seemed as though there must be something coming from the Lightning to steer the Vegas pick. Jason Garrison

The Lightning instead decided to protect Braydon Coburn, which was a huge surprise to everyone. In our mock draft, Dotchin garnered an easy majority as the Tampa Bay pick with his upside and late play for the team showing he’s ready for an NHL role next season. James Mirtle of The Athletic notes that the Lightning may be looking to move salary out, which seems to point directly at Jason Garrison. The 32-year old has one year left on his contract for $4.6MM and has a full no-trade clause. Having the Golden Knights choose him in the expansion draft is an easy way around that clause, with some sort of asset going back the other way in return.

If first-round picks are the going currency to dump your problems on the Golden Knights, the Lightning would be giving up the 14th-overall selection. That’s a hefty price to pay, and Smith speculates a deal may be centered around a forward prospect or the team’s two second-round picks instead. It also could be that the team simply wanted to keep Coburn as well, and will give up an asset without any salary heading the other way. With Tyler Johnson and Ondrej Palat leading a large group of RFAs for the team this summer, clearing more salary room out would allow them to be players in free agency. Before trading Jonathan Drouin it wasn’t even clear they’d be able to sign all of their forwards, but within a matter of days cap space could turn into an asset for the Lightning instead of a burden.

While the Golden Knights apparently don’t have a deal in place with Ottawa, it could have as many as nine other trades in place with teams around the league. Their position as the only expansion team in the new salary cap NHL has given them a lot of leverage in trade talks. While it may not be five first-round picks this year, it’s clear that George McPhee and the Golden Knights will collect a strong stable of assets this offseason.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Expansion Primer: Tampa Bay Lightning

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We’re continuing to break down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft, coming up next week: which players are eligible, and which will likely warrant protection or may be on the block. Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4pm CDT on June 17th. The full rules on eligibility can be found here, and CapFriendly has provided a handy expansion tool to make your own lists.

Steve Yzerman fired the first shot in the pre-expansion draft trade market by acquiring  Mikhail Sergachev from Montreal for Jonathan Drouin, a move that gave the Lightning flexibility both with the cap and their expansion protection list. It also filled a need with the Bolts on defense. With that in mind, it makes Yzerman and the Lightning’s decisions slightly easier as to who to protect and who to expose. But there are still some tough choices to make.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards: Steven Stamkos (NMC), Ryan Callahan (NMC), Nikita Kucherov, Alex Killorn, Vladislav Namestnikov, J.T. Brown, Erik Condra, Cedric Paquette, Ondrej Palat (RFA), Tyler Johnson 

Defensemen: Victor Hedman (NMC), Jason Garrison, Anton Stralman, Braydon Coburn, Andrej Sustr (RFA), Slater Koekkoek, Jake Dotchin

Goaltender: Andrei Vasilevskiy, Kristers Gudlevskis (RFA)

Notable Exemptions

Mikhail Sergachev, Brett Howden

Key Decisions

Unloading Drouin certainly helped from a financial and expansion list aspect.  This makes it somewhat easier for forwards to put on the protected list.

Ondrej Palat and Alex Killorn are both choices that benefitted from Drouin being moved. Killorn netted 19 goals while Palat will continue to get better. Stamkos and Callahan both have NMCs. Despite fighting injury and not matching his production from 2014-15, Johnson is too good of a talent to leave exposed.

It’s on defense where tougher decisions need to be made, and it will come down to three players. Hedman and Stralman will both be protected, Hedman because he has a no-movement clause and Stralman is key to the Lightning blueline. Jason Garrison and Braydon Coburn are both carrying heavier hits for the cap and will most likely be left alone when they’re exposed. Garrison could hypothetically be taken with his deal ending at the conclusion of the 2017-18 season, but the $4.6MM hit would probably scare Vegas away.

May 24, 2016; Tampa, FL, USA; Tampa Bay Lightning center <a rel=That leaves three choices to protect: Andrej Sustr, Jake Dotchin, and Slater Koekkoek. Sustr is a restricted free agent and won’t be able to command much in the way of money after having a down year. That doesn’t make him exempt from being exposed. If anything, seeing his numbers drop with a number of other options pounding on the door for the big club could make him the odd man out. However, he’s still an economical option and any leverage he had took a hit with the acquisition of Sergachev, who if scouting is correct, should find time on the Tampa blueline next season. But the problem with protecting Sustr is that Tampa would risk losing two young, and talented defensemen for nothing. In the same breath, would the Bolts want to possibly lose a steady defenseman who is only 26?

That leads to Dotchin and Koekkoek. Dotchin just turned 23, and registered 11 points in 35 games this season. The problem is, as Lightning blog Raw Charge pointed out, his sample size was limited compared to Koekkoek while being paired with Hedman. The 23-year-old Koekkoek logged 41 games over the past two seasons,  but played strong for AHL affiliate Syracuse during the Calder Cup playoffs. Picking between them is essentially splitting hairs. Koekkoek  appears to have the higher ceiling, and plays a cleaner game than Dotchin. Though they play different games, Yzerman might prefer a more disciplined, puck moving defenseman when choosing who to protect. At the same time, Dotchin plays a physical game, and can move the puck as well. He’s not afraid to muck it up, and provides a presence that protects his teammates on the ice–while still contributing on the score sheet. As Tampa Bay Times beat writer Joe Smith wrote, Dotchin has stood out to management, especially in the NHL and AHL during Syracuse’s Calder Cup Final run.

With two younger defensive prospects and after having a less than stellar season, predict Sustr to be exposed and Koekkoek protected. Don’t be surprised, as many others have written, if Yzerman pulls something off to keep all of his young defensemen so Dotchin remains in the fold.

Projected Protection List

F – Steven Stamkos (NMC)
F – Ryan Callahan (NMC)
F – Tyler Johnson (RFA)
F – Nikita Kucherov
F – Vladislav Namestnikov
F – Alex Killorn
F – Ondrej Palat (RFA)

D – Victor Hedman (NMC)
D – Anton Stralman
D –Slater Koekkoek (RFA)

G – Andrei Vasilevskiy

Vasilevskiy is truly the only option to protect as 24-year-old netminder Kristers Gudlevskis is unlikely to be taken with other options presumably available from other teams. Of the decisions, it seems to be the least of Tampa’s worries.

The Lightning, despite missing the playoffs and sustaining injuries to one key player after another, still have a strong lineup that will absolutely compete next season. Peddling Drouin off certainly helped matters, but the third player to protect defensively is a tough decision to make. At the end of the day, though, Yzerman has shown skills deft enough to take a challenging situation and somehow make it work out. Don’t be surprised if he finds a way to do it again.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Expansion Notes: Phaneuf, McPhee, Final Decisions

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TSN’s Pierre LeBrun tweets that nothing changed on Ottawa defenseman Dion Phaneuf’s decision to waive his no-movement clause prior to the 5pm deadline today. This doesn’t mean, however, that he won’t be traded. Phaneuf is definitely in the mix to be dealt as Ottawa agonizes over who to protect and who to leave exposed as lists are due tomorrow at 5pm. Phaneuf has been the subject of trade rumors, and it was confirmed by general manager Pierre Dorion that he’s received calls about the 32-year-old defenseman. Some pundits thought Phaneuf might waive his NMC before the 5pm deadline, but with that now passed, it will be interesting to see if he’s one of many players shuttled to another team to ease the restrictions on the list.

  • The USA Today’s Kevin Allen writes that Vegas general manager George McPhee has encouraged his staff to catch up on their sleep prior to the weekend as all NHL teams will have their protected lists submitted tomorrow. Noting that he only has 72 hours to put a team together, McPhee told Allen that teams have been straightforward with McPhee as to what they’re thinking and that it’s been in line with what McPhee and his staff expected. Allen reports that McPhee plans on informing each team who they plan on taking, so they can circle back to see if another deal can be worked out. Further, McPhee indicates that they are trying to build a balanced squad that can compete right away. He adds that they also want to acquire as many draft picks as possible to “expedite their building process.” McPhee also told Allen that even though he’s in his office at 6am Vegas time, his phone has been ringing non-stop with colleagues looking to make deals.
  • On the other side of McPhee’s phone line are 30 general managers wrangling with what they’re going to do in anticipation of the draft. The AP’s Stephen Whyno spoke with general managers who are also losing sleep over the draft, albeit for different reasons. Minnesota’s Chuck Fletcher told Whyno that he often reminds himself at 3am that he can “only lose one player–go back to sleep.” Florida’s Dale Tallon remarked that “everyone’s a little nervous, a little reluctant” in anticipation of what will happen. Tampa general manager Steve Yzerman already responded by trading Jonathan Drouin to Montreal while New York and Colorado bought out the contracts of Dan Girardi and Francois Beauchemin respectively. Meanwhile, LeBrun tweets that deals could go down to the wire after speaking with Fletcher while  Tampa Bay Times beat writer Joe Smith tweets that he sees Tampa Bay in potential talks with Fletcher since the Wild have a logjam at defense.

Analysts Weigh In On Sergachev-Drouin Deal

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The trade between Montreal and Tampa Bay that sent Jonathan Drouin and a 2018 conditional sixth round pick to the Habs for Mikhail Sergachev and a 2018 conditional second round pick was intriguing on a number of levels. It resulted in the Canadiens immediately inking Drouin to a six-year, $33MM deal, and flipped a defenseman to the Lightning, bolstering the blue line. It’s a deal that could not only begin the onslaught of trades that many have expected in the hockey world, but could have what Darren Dreger and Pierre LeBrun called a “major ripple effect” for Montreal. Here are some thoughts and musings from many in the hockey world.

  • Sportsnet’s Craig Hagerman details the expansion implications that the deal has. Getting rid of Drouin, Hagerman writes, offers Vegas a significantly less talented forward to choose from when they peruse Tampa’s choices.  Additionally, Sergachev is exempt from the expansion draft.  Montreal, on the other hand, still has a number of forwards they will have to expose. Hagerman adds that Tampa Bay general manager Steve Yzerman acted when the Lightning were looking at some tough choices on who to protect and expose.Oct 4, 2016; Quebec City, Quebec, CAN; Montreal Canadiens defenseman Mikhail Sergachev (22) checks Boston Bruins forward David Krejci (46) during the third period of a preseason hockey game at Centre Videotron. Mandatory Credit: Eric Bolte-USA TODAY Sports
  • TSN’s Frank Seravalli adds that the Bolts snagged a defenseman they desperately needed while the Canadiens grab the French-Canadian impact player they’ve been dreaming of since Stephane Richer, Pierre Turgeon, and Vincent Damphousse. Seravalli knows the trade was influenced by Tampa’s cap issues and its expansion draft decision. It gives them a chance to grow a potential top four d-man, while surrounding him with significant talent and other Russian influences on the team. Montreal adds a much needed goal scoring presence who has yet to even hit the prime of his career. The best part? He comes at a bargain.
  • The USA Today’s Kevin Allen sees this as a “do-over” for Yzerman in acquiring a top pairing defenseman. Allen writes that Yzerman chose Drouin over Seth Jones in the 2013 draft, and now has the chance to make up for that decision in acquiring Sergachev. He believes it’s a win for both sides, with the Habs acquiring a young scoring forward who is French-Canadian. The Canadiens, Allen writes, lost nothing on their current roster to add a dynamic scoring presence. For the Bolts, they gain an exceptional skater and a young defenseman who could possibly be on the roster next season.
  • But it’s not sunshine and rainbows for every writer. The Tampa Bay Times’ Martin Fennelly warns that it could be a deal Yzerman regrets. While he outlines the chance that Drouin doesn’t live up to what Montreal expects, he points out that the deal could “haunt” them as they’ll see Montreal often within the Atlantic Division scheduling, while adding that Drouin is an already established talent who will most likely delight in beating his former team. While Fennelly admits Sergachev to be a great prospect and saying that Yzerman hasn’t made many “bad” deals,  he believes this one has the potential to blow up in his face.

All photographs courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Tampa Bay Notes: Trades, Killorn, Namestnikov

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With the Tampa Bay Lightning having loads of offseason questions after not making the playoffs this past year, a lot is up in the air when it comes to their expansion protection plans. Regardless, Tampa Bay Times’ Joe Smith writes that general manager Steve Yzerman has said that he would like to work out a side deal with the Las Vegas Golden Knights, but said he isn’t sure he can as the Lightning may have too many good assets available.

The scribe writes to not be surprised, however, if the Lightning make a big trade, possibly for a defenseman in the next week before protection rosters must be turned in on Saturday. He mentions both the Anaheim Ducks and the Minnesota Wild as likely trade partners as both teams must move a defenseman as well. One suggestion would be to make an agreement with Las Vegas to select a defenseman from another team in the expansion draft and then package them to Tampa Bay in a bigger deal.

  • In a mailbag, Smith writes that he expects Tampa Bay to try to move center Alex Killorn before a no-trade clause kicks in. He signed a new seven-year deal last offseason, but a full-trade clause takes effect for the next three years on July 1. Then it goes to a modified no-trade clause for the final three years. Despite scoring a career high in goals (19) during the first year of that seven-year deal, the team may want to take advantage of his value and package him and his $4.45MM contract to solve some cap issues that the team must deal with. If the team doesn’t trade Killorn and he gets exposed for the expansion draft, don’t be shocked if Las Vegas head coach Gerard Gallant might take Killorn, who he coached for Team Canada at the World Championships this year.
  • Smith also mentions several players who are possible expansion picks by the Golden Knights, assuming Tampa Bay can’t pull off a side deal with them. Center Vladislav Namestnikov would be an obvious choice, if left unprotected, as well as restricted free agents Slater Koekkoek or Jake Dotchin. Namestnikov is just 24 and has scored 24 goals in the last two seasons. Koekkoek and Dotchin, both 23-year-old defensemen, each have promise. Koekkoek has only played in 41 total games, while Dotchin recorded 11 assists in 35 games in his rookie campaign.

 

 

The Pros And Cons Of Trading Jonathan Drouin

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Due to their tight cap space both now and in the near future, the Tampa Bay Lightning and general manager Steve Yzerman will have to make a big decision soon about the future of young 22-year-old rising star Jonathan Drouin. There has been talk for much of the offseason already that the team might look to trade the young scorer for a top-four defenseman, which has created some outrage about the team trading a player of Drouin’s potential.

Drouin had a breakout year in 2016-17, scoring 21 goals and adding 32 assists for a 53 point season. And he’s likely to have just scratched the surface of his potential. Yes, Drouin chose to sit out games in 2015-16 and both looked selfish for demanding a trade and caused problems for the Lightning, but Drouin and the organization has moved past that, according to Tampa Bay Times writer Martin Fennelly. The scribe writes that under no circumstances do you trade away a top-talent like Drouin. The former third-overall pick in the 2013 draft has the potential to be one of the best players in the NHL if he plays to his potential.

Many people believe that Drouin could be a point-a-game player. Hall of Famer Phil Esposito, the franchise’s founder, compared Drouin to Wayne Gretzky. And that’s why, according to Fennelly, that you don’t trade a potential star. You don’t have to. The scribe suggests trading Tyler Johnson instead. The 26-year-old scored 19 goals last year and should be able to bring in a solid defenseman – perhaps not a star – but a blueliner that can still improve that defense.

However, there are others factors to consider, writes Joe Smith of the Tampa Bay Times, as the two writers wrote opposing columns. When the team’s disappointing season ended, without a playoff berth, Yzerman didn’t blame all the team’s injuries, but the Lightning’s lack of defense and that is the key to the team’s future success. The team allowed opposing teams too many scoring opportunities due to a weak defense. It’s not like the Lightning can just go out and sign the top free agent defenseman on the market. The team couldn’t afford Kevin Shattenkirk, let alone Karl Alzner. Cap space is the problem.

Smith says the idea of trading Drouin is crazy, but you have to look at all the factors, which includes the defensive problems as well as the cap ramifications. The team must lock up three restricted free agents this year, including Drouin, Ondrej Palat and Johnson (as well as add a back-up goalie) with just $18MM in cap space. That would be a major challenge. The team must also factor in that they must give a big contract to Nikita Kucherov in two years as well.

On top of that, Drouin’s value is at an all-time high. Every team would want to put a package together to get the young scorer. His value would be able to net multiple assets with a top-two or top-four defenseman just the beginning of an offer. The team could net other assets of young talent and/or picks, which could keep Tampa Bay on top for years to come from a trade like this. There are rumors about packages ranging from Los Angeles Kings defenseman Jake Muzzin or Minnesota Wild’s Matt Dumba and Marco Scandella as potential starting points in trades. And if Yzerman waits until just before the expansion protection roster deadline, he may be able to get an even greater package.

However, Fennelly points out that Tampa Bay should be reminded of a similar situation several years ago when the Boston Bruins traded Tyler Seguin to the Dallas Stars in 2013 for a package of players because the Bruins thought Seguin was a problem-child. Seguin now is one of the best scorers in the league. You don’t want to be the team that traded away a star player.

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