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Poll: Who Do You Least Want To See Win The No. 1 Pick?

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If Deputy Commissioner Bill Daly’s face didn’t give it away during Friday night’s NHL Draft Lottery, this result was not what the league was expecting or hoping for. In a season when a decorated Original Six franchise, the Detroit Red Wings, had one of the worst campaigns of all-time and the league’s most downtrodden franchise, the Ottawa Senators, had not one but two high-percentage chances of winning the top pick, the No. 1 overall selection will instead go to a to-be-determined “playoff” team.

With the league expanding the postseason field to 24 teams this season as a result of COVID-19 cutting the regular season short, 16 teams will vie for a chance to move through a “knockout round” onto a more standard version of the NHL playoffs. However, now those same 16 teams, all of whom finished above .500 this season, will also be in the running to win the top overall pick and the right to select a generational talent in forward Alexis Lafreniere. All eight losers of the qualifying round will have even odds in a second running of the lottery and one lucky team will get playoff experience and an elite young player this season. No one is going to be truly happy with the result (apart from the lottery winner and their fans of course) but who would you least like to see win the top overall pick?

The Pittsburgh Penguins might be at the top of many peoples’ lists. The franchise has won three Stanley Cups in the last decade and no one would be surprised to see them win again this year, especially given the fact that they finished  the regular season in seventh league-wide in points percentage. The Penguins are the best team slated to play in the knockout round, but if by some chance they lose to the Montreal Canadiens, Lafreniere could potentially join Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and company in a move that could extend the dynasty for years still to come. The thought of the talented young winger playing beside either of those superstars would be daunting to every other team in the league.

Finishing just behind Pittsburgh with the ninth-best points percentage in the league this year were the Carolina Hurricanes. The club has quietly accumulated a deep, talented roster including a number of elite young players. Carolina is set to contend for titles for many years to come, but Lafreniere would make them truly dangerous. Like the Penguins, the Hurricanes simply do not need the best player in the draft. Keep in mind  that they were also one of just two teams to vote against the expanded postseason model, making it especially twisted if they were to reap the benefits of this one-off lottery structure. As good as the Hurricanes were at times this season, they are a popular upset pick in the qualifying round against the New York Rangers and could wind up in the lottery.

The New York Islanders finished just outside the top-ten in points percentage this season and have a deep, experienced team. They also play a sound defensive system. While it works to win games, it isn’t the most exciting strategy and could limit the upside of an explosive offensive talent like Lafreniere. On top of that, the Isles don’t even know where they will be playing their home games next season and have suffered from poor attendance in recent years. It doesn’t exactly sound like an ideal landing spot for an exciting top prospect. Fortunately, the Islanders drew a plus matchup against the Florida Panthers and should advance past the knockout round if they can stick to their smothering defensive game.

Given their luck in the draft lottery over the past decade, it’s pretty gross to think about the Edmonton Oilers being in the running for another No. 1 pick. Likely soon to be the home of two MVP’s in Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, the Oilers landing Lafreniere as their fifth first overall pick and ninth top-ten pick since 2010 would really be something. With an improved NHL roster and a strong pipeline of talent, the Oilers are finally starting to be self-sufficient and don’t need Lafreniere like they might have in recent year. However, if the team can’t hold off a poor Chicago Blackhawks club in the knockout round, maybe they do need the pick.

The Toronto Maple Leafs are another team that is chock full of young talent and it would be an embarrassment of riches (and embarrassing for the league) to see them land Lafreniere. While the team would be in prime shape to finally snap their Stanley Cup drought with the addition, the Leafs are already well on their way and will be contenders for years and years to come even without the top pick. Additionally, should Toronto win the lottery, there would certainly be those that would cry foul about the whole situation. The Maple Leafs face the Columbus Blue Jackets in the qualifying round in one of the more evenly matched of the upcoming series. Toronto is likely the slight favorite, but could just as easily wind up in the lottery.

The current iteration of the Chicago Blackhawks is not good. However, they are also the most dominant franchise of this decade with three Stanley Cups. It’s not east to find many outside of Chicago who have pity for the current Blackhawks given their sustained success of late. With some of those core players still in place and some exciting young pieces starting to build up, the Blackhawks may already be back on the rebound without the assistance of Lafreniere. If they make it a series with the star-studded Oilers, it will be even more evident that they don’t need a top pick to stay relevant. Like the Maple Leafs, some will also be outraged if the Blackhawks win the lottery due to the perceived favoritism shown by the league on a number of occasions in recent years.

If you really want to hear conspiracy theories though, look no further than the possibility of the Montreal Canadiens winding up with No. 1 overall. Yes, the Canadiens have no business in a playoff series and would have been in the standard draft lottery anyway, but there will be plenty who think that it is far too convenient if the Habs win the top pick when a Francophone and Quebec native is the best player on the board. It used to be that Montreal – who don’t forget have more Stanley Cups than any NHL franchise – was able to claim the best French Canadian players in the draft regardless of draft order. If that opportunity should inadvertently occur once again, plenty of people might get upset at the league despite the fact that Montreal technically is the most deserving (read: worst) of the qualifying round teams. The NHL does not want that drama right now and its most decorated club frankly does not need special treatment, perceived or otherwise.

As for the remaining teams, the Winnipeg Jets, New York Rangers, and Vancouver Canucks were all better than their records implied this season and already have elite young players, the Florida Panthers and Arizona Coyotes may not have the fan bases to support a young star like Lafreniere, and I’m sure there are reasons to root against the Nashville Predators, Calgary Flames, and Minnesota Wild as well. If you can think of a valid reason why the Columbus Blue Jackets, who have one playoff series win in franchise history, don’t deserve a stroke of good luck, that’s fine too.

What do you think? Which team do you absolutely not want to see Lafreniere go to, either because of existing talent or complaints of foul play or for any other reason? The reality is that one of these 16 will end up with the best player on the board, which in many ways is already a loss for the league, but it can get much worse from here.

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Dallas And Pittsburgh Ruled Out As Hub City Candidates

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We still don’t know which two cities will be serving as the hub hosts for the NHL’s planned return to action but we now know two more that won’t be.  After Columbus and Minnesota were reported as out on Tuesday, the Penguins announced that they were no longer in the mix while Pierre LeBrun of TSN and The Athletic adds (Twitter link) that Dallas has been informed that they are out as well.

That means that the hub city field is down to six teams.  In the East, Toronto is the last one standing while out West, Chicago, Edmonton, Los Angeles, Vancouver, and Vegas are still contenders.

The league’s preference is to have host teams play out of the opposite hub (in other words, the East plays in a Western city and vice versa) but that shouldn’t be construed as a sign that Toronto should be viewed as a contender.  If Los Angeles was to get it, they’d be able to host the West without any home ice ’advantage’ as the Kings aren’t among the 24 teams taking part.  The league has also said they have no concerns about both cities being outside of the Eastern time zone.

There is no firm timetable as to when the host cities will be announced.  However, with health and safety protocols still needing to be worked out, an announcement should be in the near future to allow the NHL and NHLPA to work out the final details while being able to hammer out city-specific arrangements.

Nick Bjugstad May Not Be Out For The Year After All

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Although the Penguins announced last month that Nick Bjugstad is out for the rest of the playoffs, that may not be the case.  GM Jim Rutherford told Josh Yohe of The Athletic (subscription required) that should Pittsburgh make a deep run into the postseason, there is a chance that the center could be available near the end.  However, it’s fair to question as to whether or not the team would want to put him in the lineup if that was to happen.  The oft-injured Bjugstad played in just 13 regular season games this season and struggled offensively with only a single goal and assist.  While he’s a capable player when healthy, asking him to jump into the middle of a late playoff series when he will have missed some much time would be a tough ask.

Chris Thorburn Officially Retires From NHL

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It’s been more than two years since Chris Thorburn played meaningful minutes in an NHL game, but the veteran forward is officially hanging up his skates, per Sean O’Leary of The Score. The NHLPA sent along their congratulations to Thorburn via Twitter.

Thorburn, 37, got to go out in style, winning the Stanley Cup in his second year with the St. Louis Blues in 2019. The Athletic’s Jeremy Rutherford chronicled Thorburn’s final season when he spent most of the year mentoring younger players for the Blues’ AHL affiliate. The longtime enforcer appeared in 50 games for the Blues in 2017-2018 for 7:02 ATOI as a 34-year-old, finishing the year with seven points.

The veteran winger was never an All-Star, topping out usage-wise with 13:48 ATOI during the Thrashers final season in Atlanta (2010-2011). He nonetheless carved out a role as a professional skater for 14 seasons. After Buffalo made him the 50th overall selection of the 2001 entry draft, Thorburn suited up for the Sabres, Penguins, Thrashers/Jets, and Blues, totalling 53 goals and 134 points.

Sullivan: No Decision Made On Starting Goalie Versus Montreal

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  • The Penguins are one of quite a few teams that will have an intriguing decision to make between the pipes for the playoffs. Head coach Mike Sullivan told Josh Yohe of The Athletic (subscription required) that he hasn’t decided yet whether Matt Murray or Tristan Jarry will get the nod to start against Montreal.  Previously, GM Jim Rutherford had said his expectation was that Murray would have the first opportunity as his playoff performance over his career has been strong.  However, Jarry’s numbers over the course of the regular season were considerably better.  The three-week training camp and round robin seeding set of games should ultimately decide who gets to start.

Emil Larmi And Samuel Poulin To Be Among Pittsburgh's Recalls To Expanded Roster

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  • Penguins goaltending prospect Emil Larmi has been recalled to join the team in Pittsburgh as they continue preparations for their play-in series against Montreal, reports Matt Vensel of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. The rookie posted identical 3.55 GAA’s with AHL Wilkes-Barre/Scranton (nine games) and ECHL Wheeling (11 games) this season.  While it’s expected that there will be a cap on the number of skaters that teams can carry when play resumes, there may not be one for goaltenders.  With that in mind, it appears that Pittsburgh will carry at least four as Casey DeSmith is a safe bet to be brought up as well.
  • Still with Pittsburgh, Louis Jean of TVA Sports reports (Twitter link) that prospect Samuel Poulin will be among their recalls as well. The Penguins took the 19-year-old 21st overall last June and he is coming off of a dominant season in the QMJHL.  After picking up 76 points in 67 games last season, he had 77 points in just 46 contests this year with Sherbrooke.  Poulin has already signed his entry-level deal.

Metropolitan Storylines: Pittsburgh Penguins

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While the stretch run is officially over with the NHL’s declaration that the play-in games won’t be part of the regular season, we still have one division left to get to in our Stretch Run Storylines series.  We now shift the focus to the Metropolitan Division with an eye on things to watch for in the postseason.  Next up is a look at Pittsburgh.

The Penguins were slumping before the COVID-19 pandemic suspended the schedule as they had dropped seven of their last ten games.  As a result, they fell out of the second seed in the Metropolitan Division and while that may not have seemed like a big deal at the time, it came with a price as they will now have to get through the play-in round against Montreal in order to get back to being a mid-seeded team in the East which is where they were before the season was shut down.  Here is what to watch for when Pittsburgh returns to the ice either next month or in early August.

Guentzel’s Return

Several teams will be benefitting from getting players back that weren’t expected to be available had the playoffs began at their normal time.  The Penguins are one of the ones that will be getting a core player back as winger Jake Guentzel is expected to be available to return.  He had been slated to miss four-to-six months as of late December due to shoulder surgery but by the time the puck drops, more than six months will have elapsed.

After putting up 40 goals and 76 points last season (both career highs), Guentzel was on track to beat those numbers this year as he had 20 goals and 43 points in just 39 games before the injury shut him down.  Adding someone that was producing at that rate will be huge for a team that was near the middle of the pack offensively during the regular season – in large part due to several key injuries throughout the year.

As things stand, it seems likely that Guentzel would reprise his role as Sidney Crosby’s left winger which is where he was for the majority of the year.  That would push late-season acquisition Jason Zucker down in the lineup, presumably onto the second line alongside Evgeni Malkin unless they want to move Zucker onto his off-wing.  When healthy, Pittsburgh features one of the more talented offences in the NHL and they’ll be getting a big part of that back with Guentzel.

Goalie Battle

One of the reasons that the Penguins were able to withstand the rash of injuries was the breakout of goaltender Tristan Jarry.  He went from being a third-string option that was available in a trade to a player that was selected to the All-Star Game.  Statistically speaking (2.43 GAA, .921 SV%), he vastly outperformed Matt Murray (2.87 GAA, .899 SV%) but that didn’t seem to matter much in terms of a distribution of playing time.  Out of the 69 games they played before the pandemic hit, Murray had 38 starts to Jarry’s 31 despite his struggles.

As a result, it’s far from a guarantee that Jarry will be getting the nod in the first game against the Canadiens.  If the regular season distribution is any indicator, it could suggest Murray will get the nod.  Having said that, teams are more willing to let their veterans play through their struggles during the regular season but the playoffs are a different animal altogether.

On top of that, there is the fact that both netminders are restricted free agents with salary arbitration this offseason.  Murray has to be qualified at $3.75MM and should still be able to land more than that while Jarry will be slated to earn a sizable jump on his current $675K AAV.  With more than $68MM in commitments for next season already and the expected flattening of the salary cap (currently at $81.5MM), it’s going to be difficult to keep both around.  If one of them takes the reins and runs with it in the postseason, it could play a key role in determining which one stays and which one could be on the move.

Wildcard On Defense

It has not been a year to remember for defenseman Justin Schultz.  After an injury-plagued 2018-19 campaign that limited him to just 25 games, he was hoping for a rebound year to boost his free agent fortunes.  That hasn’t happened.

Instead, a pair of lower-body injuries plus the cancellation of their final 13 regular season games limited Schultz to just 46 contests.  On top of that, he struggled mightily offensively, tallying just three goals and nine assists on the year, a far cry from the 51 he put up in his first full year with the team back in the 2016-17 season.  His minutes also dipped a bit as well.

But there’s no denying that when Schultz is healthy, he can impact the game in a lot of ways.  Instead of continuing to work off the rust, he’s now well-rested and knowing that he’ll be entering what is likely to be a weakened free agent market, he has a lot to play for.  During his time with the Penguins, the 29-year-old has been productive in the playoffs, putting up higher point-per-game averages than his regular season performance over the past three postseasons.  Doing that again would certainly boost Pittsburgh’s chances of a successful playoff performance while helping restore some value on the open market.  That certainly makes him one to watch on their back end.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Alexis Lafreniere Wins CHL Player Of The Year For Second Straight Season

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When your name is in the running for the first overall pick in the NHL Entry Draft, it doesn’t hurt to have a bullet point on your resume that only Sidney Crosby shares in hockey history. Forward Alexis Lafreniere of the QMJHL’s Rimouski Oceanic is projected to be the top pick in the 2020 draft almost unanimously. Any doubt that he may not take that title was likely put to rest on Wednesday when the CHL announced that Lafreniere had been named the 2019-20 CHL Player of the Year. As if that wasn’t enough of an accomplishment, this is actually the second straight campaign in which Lafreniere has received the award. He was named the CHL’s best player in 2018-19 as well. The only other player honored in consecutive seasons: Pittsburgh Penguins captain and one of the game’s all-time best, Sidney Crosby.

Lafreniere, 18, recorded an eye-popping 112 points in just 52 games this season with Rimouski. His 2.15 per-game scoring rate was the CHL’s best since another NHL mega star, Connor McDavid, was playing juniors. It also marks a sharp increase from Lafreniere’s 2018-19 production of 105 points in 61 games, which was still good enough to take home the CHL’s Player of the Year honors last season. Altogether, Lafreniere registered 72 goals and 217 points in 113 games across his two MVP campaigns and nearly 300 points total in his three junior seasons combined. As a result, there is approximately a 0% chance that he will ever play in the juniors again.

Instead, the presumptive top pick will simply sit and wait to see where his first pro destination will be. The NHL answer could arrive as early as later this month, as the NHL Draft Lottery is scheduled for Friday, June 26th. However, if the nearby Ottawa Senators or the historically bad Detroit Red Wings or one of the other non-playoff teams does not win the first to select first overall, Lafreniere will have to wait even longer. A second lottery later this summer would determine which playoff team eliminated in the knockout round of the NHL’s adapted playoff format would have the first pick. On top of that, there is still some concern that with a possible delayed start to the 2020-21 NHL season that Lafreniere’s pro career may actually begin in Europe. The young star has entertained the thought of getting his first pro season started on time, even if that isn’t with his NHL club. He would of course be expected to return to North America once the new season does begin.

Regardless of where Lafreniere ends up, any team that has him in their lineup will receive a major boost. Lafreniere has shown for several years now that he is a special prospect and his second straight CHL Player of the Year Award puts him in elite company. Is it too early to proclaim him the next Crosby? Of course. That won’t stop the winners of this year’s draft lottery from keeping their hopes up though.

John Nyberg Signs In SHL

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The Pittsburgh Penguins organization ended up only getting 16 games out of John Nyberg. The defensive prospect has signed a two-year deal with Brynas, returning to the SHL after his short stint in North America. Nyberg arrived in the Pittsburgh organization in a midseason trade with the Dallas Stars, but his entry-level deal is up and he won’t be signing a new one.

Originally selected in the sixth round by the Stars in 2014, Nyberg didn’t even come over to join their minor league program until 2018. Once there, the 6’3″ defenseman struggled to contribute much offense and even spent some time in the ECHL. He was sent to Pittsburgh in exchange for Oula Palve, who is also headed back to Sweden for the 2020-21 season.

As several reporters including Murat Ates of The Athletic discussed on Twitter yesterday, the lack of a concrete plan for the 2020-21 AHL season could force some players back overseas in order to land job security. Without a clear path to the NHL club a player like Nyberg may have more opportunity playing in his home country, given that the AHL season may be extremely truncated due to a lack of ticket sales.

If the Penguins wish to retain his exclusive rights temporarily, they can issue Nyberg a qualifying offer after the season ends.

Pittsburgh Penguins Player Tests Positive For COVID-19

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The Pittsburgh Penguins have announced that one of their players has tested positive for COVID-19. He is not in Pittsburgh and has been in isolation since experiencing symptoms, but has already recovered. Those who came in close contact with him have been notified. The identity of the player has not been revealed.

This is the ninth NHL player who has tested positive (at least publicly revealed to have tested positive) following five members of the Ottawa Senators and three members of the Colorado Avalanche that were diagnosed months ago.

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