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Poll: Early Hart Trophy Favorite?

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It may be the slowest stretch of the off-season, but the odds-makers at Bovada are staying busy. As Sports Illustrated’s Michael Blinn writes, the first odds for the NHL’s MVP Award, the Hart Trophy, for the 2018-19 season are out. Very few could have predicted that the New Jersey Devils’ Taylor Hall would have taken home the title this past season at this point last year. Is next year’s winner even on the board? Or will it be one of the heavy favorites?

To no surprise, Edmonton Oilers phenom Connor McDavid has the best odds to win the Hart for the second time in three years after being crowned in 2017. McDavid has 10/3 odds to win the award and those are actually pretty fair odds. Even last season, when McDavid was not even a finalist for the Hart, he nevertheless was the league’s leading scorer with 108 points, six more than the next-best player. It was the second season in a row that McDavid won the scoring title and that trend seems unlikely to change if he remains healthy. However, there are some who will say that McDavid’s Hart chances are tied to the success of the Oilers. The argument this past season was that he could not truly be the most valuable player in the league when his contributions still left Edmonton far from a playoff spot. With a roster that has been largely unimproved this off-season, another regular season disappointment for the Oilers could make it hard for McDavid to get back on top.

Next up is two-time Hart winner Sidney Crosby at 13/5. The face of the Pittsburgh Penguins dynasty has long been considered the best player on the planet. Yet, one would think that Crosby might actually have more than two MVP titles. Crosby has scored between 84 and 120 points in every healthy season of his career, but his impressive supporting cast detracts from the impact of those unbelievable numbers. Especially last season, when Crosby was narrowly outscored by both Evgeni Malkin and Phil Kessel, it would have been close to impossible for him to win the Hart. Malkin (18/1 odds) and Kessel (75/1 odds) are still Penguins and barring injuries to one or both, Crosby would have to take his game to an even higher level to get back into Hart consideration.

Maple Leafs centers John Tavares and Auston Matthews both have 10/1 odds to win the Hart, as the odds-makers clearly expect there to be plenty of offense to go around in Toronto next season. Injuries held Matthews to 63 points last season, outside the top 50 in scoring, while a healthy Tavares only managed to tie for sixteenth with 84 points for the New York Islanders. Both players will greatly need to improve their production to be Hart – and it is certainly possible now that they are playing together – yet an improvement by both could land them in Crosby/Malkin territory where they cancel each other out in the Hart race.

Reigning Stanley Cup, Conn Smythe, and Maurice Richard winner Alex Ovechkin also has 10/1 odds to take home the Hart. Ovechkin has done it three times before, more than any other active player in the league. However, Ovechkin’s 49 goals last year only came with 38 assists, as his 87 points kept him outside the top ten in scoring. At 33 years old this season, the Washington Capitals captain will have to fight both the aging process and a potential Cup hangover to improve his production if he wants a fourth Hart. Ovechkin’s 10/1 odds seem like a stretch.

At 15/1 are both the 2018 winner Hall and finalist Nathan MacKinnon, as well as Nikita Kucherov and Mark Scheifele. This is where the value lies in these early odds. The former duo greatly benefited from both excellent seasons – 97 points for MacKinnon and 93 points for Hall – but also being far and away the best players on the New Jersey Devils and Colorado Avalanche respectively. Both should again lead the way for their clubs and if they match their previous output and again sneak into the postseason, it would be no surprise to see them both back in consideration next year. As for Kucherov, he was the favorite to win the Hart for a long stretch last season as he led the league in scoring. Although his production tailed off as the season closed out, the dynamic Tampa Bay Lightning winger still managed to finish third with 100 points. Tampa will be top contenders again and promise to light up the score board with Kucherov leading the way. Perhaps this time he can seal the deal on the Hart. Scheifele is a dark horse candidate who could be the breakout star of the coming season like Hall and MacKinnon last year. The Winnipeg Jets franchise center played in only 60 games last year, but scored 60 points and continues to show flashes of brilliance. He could be a savvy pick to take home the hardware.

Among the rest of the field are some very interesting options. Los Angeles Kings star Anze Kopitar, a Hart finalist last season, has 18/1 odds and new weapon to play with in Ilya Kovalchuk (50/1 odds). Philadelphia Flyers captain Claude Giroux has 25/1 odds despite finishing second only to McDavid at the top of the scoring charts last season with 102 points. Boston Bruins winger Brad Marchand, also 25/1 odds, was arguably the most dangerous scorer in the league last season when on the ice, finishing 13th overall in scoring with 85 points in just 68 games – the only player in the top 50 to play in less than 70 games. Bargain odds belong to Artemi Panarin at 50/1. The Columbus Blue Jackets dynamo gets better each year since coming over to the NHL and could toy with 100 points in his second year with the team. That would make for an interesting off-season, as Panarin is slated for free agency next summer.

What do you think? Does Bovada have the right names at the top? Or will the Hart winner be another unpredictable upset like Hall?

Influx Of Foreign Talent A Trend In 2018 Off-Season

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While the NHL free agent market remains flush with talented veteran players, some now beginning to depart for Europe without any leads around the league, NHL teams have quietly imported a fair amount of foreign talent this off-season. While few of these players are stars or even surefire regulars at the NHL level, the fact remains that those on two-way deals slated for depth roles are nevertheless taking those jobs from the current remnants of the market, who at this point would gladly take an AHL assignment with upside. Teams clearly have felt this off-season that taking a chance on a promising foreign player was a better use of a contract than recycling aging domestic veterans. A total of 36 players who played in Europe last season are now headed to North America, where they will suit up for 24 different organizations – showing the popularity of importing talent this off-season. Here are the foreign free agent signings this summer:

D Ilya Lyubushkin (Arizona Coyotes)
F David Ullstrom (Arizona Coyotes)
F Martin Bakos (Boston Bruins)
D Lawrence Pilut (Buffalo Sabres)
F Yasin Ehliz (Calgary Flames)
D Marcus Hogstrom (Calgary Flames)
F Saku Maenalanen (Carolina Hurricanes)
F Dominik Kahun (Chicago Blackhawks)
G Kevin Lankinen (Chicago Blackhawks)
F Jacob Nilsson (Chicago Blackhawks)
G Pavel Francouz (Colorado Avalanche)
F Valeri Nichushkin (Dallas Stars)*
G Patrik Rybar (Detroit Red Wings)
G Mikko Koskinen (Edmonton Oilers)
D Joel Persson (Edmonton Oilers)
D Bogdan Kiselevich (Florida Panthers)
F Ilya Kovalchuk (Los Angeles Kings)
D Eric Martinsson (Minnesota Wild)
D Michal Moravcik (Montreal Canadiens)
D David Sklenicka (Montreal Canadiens)
F Carl Persson (Nashville Predators)
D Filip Pyrochta (Nashville Predators)
G Miroslav Svoboda (Nashville Predators)
D Egor Yakovlev (New Jersey Devils)
F Jan Kovar (New York Islanders)
D Yannick Rathgeb (New York Islanders)
F Michael Lindqvist (New York Rangers)
F Ville Meskanen (New York Rangers)
D Juuso Riikola (Pittsburgh Penguins)
F Lukas Radil (San Jose Sharks)
F Antti Suomela (San Jose Sharks)
F Par Lindholm (Toronto Maple Leafs)
D Igor Ozhiganov (Toronto Maple Leafs)
F Brooks Macek (Vegas Golden Knights)
F Juuso Ikonen (Washington Capitals)
F Maximilian Kammerer (Washington Capitals)
F Dennis Everberg (Winnipeg Jets)

While the obvious highlight of this list is the return of Kovalchuk, inking a substantial deal with the L.A. Kings, the rest are far more than just AHL placeholders. Nichushkin, albeit not a true free agent signing since his rights never left the Stars, is back in Dallas and looking to make an impact. Koskinen is set to be the primary backup to Cam Talbot in Edmonton and, while his role was muddied somewhat by the acquisition of Philipp Grubauer, Francouz is sure to see some action in net with Colorado. Kovar was brought in to be a starter in New York, while Ullstrom – a former Islander – will push for a roster spot with Arizona. After a couple of years abroad, Everberg is back in the league and hoping to find a role in Winnipeg. If Simon Despres, on a PTO with the Montreal Canadiens, earns a contract, he could make a difference as well.

Several more of these players could wind up winning spots in training camp battles, while even more will earn call-ups throughout the year. It is an extensive list and each and every name bears watching as they begin or continue their North American pro careers. Both the risk and upside of bringing over fresh, foreign talent versus sticking with experienced yet stagnant veterans is apparent. For some teams these gambles will fail, while others may find a diamond in the rough.

 

Retained Salary For 2018-19

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Among the ways teams can increase the value of potential trade candidates is by retaining a portion of their salary. These moves are often used on star players who may have declined slightly and are no longer deemed worthy of their big cap hits, or at the deadline in order to fit in as many contracts as possible for the playoff stretch. Any team can retain up to 50% of a player’s salary for the remainder of the contract, though a single player can only be involved in two of these transactions per contract.

Teams meanwhile are limited to three retained salary transactions on the books at any one time, and they cannot in aggregate equal more than 15% of the cap ceiling. That means, for this season a team can retain up to $11,925,000 in salary given the $79.5MM cap ceiling. Some teams have already started in on that number given the previous retained salary transactions that they are still paying off. Below is a list of all the active contracts involved in transactions like this:

Arizona Coyotes

Mike Smith – Retained $1,416,667 per season through 2018-19

Boston Bruins

Matt Beleskey – Retained $1,900,000 per season through 2019-20

Carolina Hurricanes

Marcus Kruger – Retained $308,333 per season through 2018-19

Florida Panthers

Jason Demers – Retained $562,500 per season through 2020-21

Ottawa Senators

Dion Phaneuf – Retained $1,750,000 per season through 2020-21

Toronto Maple Leafs

Phil Kessel – Retained $1,200,000 per season through 2021-22

Vancouver Canucks

Roberto Luongo – Retained $800,000 per season through 2021-22

Vegas Golden Knights

Derick Brassard – Retained $2,000,000 per season through 2018-19

While these transactions are hardly crippling the above teams, they are something to remember when the trade deadline rolls around and clubs are trying to swap contracts. Teams like Toronto and Vancouver who have retained salary for another four years might not want to get into a similar situation and lock up two of their three possible options for the future.

The other question surrounding retained salary transactions will be how they affect the upcoming CBA negotiations, after teams like Vegas have acted as a sort of middle man. Brassard was never really part of the Golden Knights, only coming there on his way from Ottawa to Pittsburgh in order to reduce his salary for the Penguins. Though Vegas received compensation, it is not how the rule was intended to be used.

Snapshots: Sharks, Trottier, Vitale

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Are the San Jose Sharks done for the summer? In a mailbag for The Athletic, Kevin Kurz addresses the concerns of some fans that the team has not done enough this off-season after missing out on John Tavares. Kurz states that GM Doug Wilson still has the full faith and support of ownership – as he should seeing that the Sharks have the highest average finish in the league during his tenure – and reiterates that Wilson always says that the roster isn’t complete until the trade deadline. Given that San Jose hit a home run with the Evander Kane trade this past spring and fueled their Stanley Cup run in 2016 by adding James Reimer, Nick Spaling, and Roman Polak, that mantra has been proven true. However, is waiting until March going to cut it this season? Kurz points out that between Tavares, Ilya Kovalchuk, and Max Pacioretty, it seems that the Sharks wanted to do more this summer. Pacioretty is still one of several potential trade targets prior to the beginning of the season, but it seems more likely that the Sharks will go into the season as is and let their play in the first few months of the season dictate whether a big move is necessary or not. However, a slow start or a major injury could cause Wilson to reinvigorate his search for scoring depth.

  • The New York Islanders have had a far worse summer than the Sharks and maybe any team in the league, but one of the franchise legends is still confident in the direction of the team. Hall of Famer Bryan Trottier sat down with NHL.com’s Dave McCarthy recently and spoke about the “bright future” of Mathew Barzal and the Islanders, despite the departure of John Tavares. “For him to… have the kind rookie season he had, he’s not disappointing anyone… I see wonderful things for Mathew in the future and for the Islanders”, Trottier stated. Between a legitimate rising star in Barzal and an impressive pipeline featuring the likes of Kieffer Bellows, Oliver Wahlstrom, Noah Dobson, Bode Wilde, and Robin Salo, Trottier is right that the future is bright, but the Isles will likely have to endure a few brutal years before they reach that point. Yet, Trottier also spoke to the credibility that new GM Lou Lamoriello and new coach Barry Trotz bring to the team and feels that with their leadership and the talent on the roster, the team can still succeed if others step up. This first season without Tavares will be telling as to how the team will fare in the coming years.
  •  One recently retired NHLer is getting back into the game. The Blues have hired St. Louis native Joe Vitale as their new radio analyst for next season, writes Jim Thomas of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Vitale announced his hiring live on the Blues’ radio affiliate, KMOX, saying:

    “This is my city… I always wanted to be a Blue. I’m so passionate about this team, since I was born from the very get-go with my dad bringing me to games as a kid.”

    Vitale played six seasons in the NHL, mostly with the Pittsburgh Penguins but wrapping up his career with the Arizona Coyotes after head injuries forced him into premature retirement. Now, he’s feeling positive about getting back into the game with his hometown team. Vitale was a high-energy player, a checking line regular and face-off specialist during his career, and will likely bring that same energy to the Blues broadcast.

 

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Pittsburgh Penguins

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Navigating the Salary Cap is probably one of the more important tasks for any general manager to have. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2018-19 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Pittsburgh Penguins

Current Cap Hit: $78,480,000 (under the $79.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Jake Guentzel (one year, $734K)

Potential Bonuses:

Guentzel: $133K

Guentzel’s first full NHL season was a strong one as he finished sixth on the team in scoring while showing he could play well in a top-six role.  That type of success has him poised to land a considerable raise on his next contract.  His situation somewhat mirrors that of Conor Sheary, who also largely came out of nowhere to show some chemistry with Sidney Crosby and be productive.  He landed $3MM per year on his second deal and that’s going to represent the floor for a new contract for Guentzel.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F Derick Brassard $3MM, UFA*)
F Matt Cullen ($650K, UFA)
G Casey DeSmith ($675K, UFA)
F Derek Grant ($650K, UFA)
F Carl Hagelin ($4MM, UFA)
F Jimmy Hayes ($650K, UFA)
D Chad Ruhwedel ($650K, UFA)
F Riley Sheahan ($2.1MM, UFA)

* – Vegas is retaining an additional $2MM on Brassard’s deal

Pittsburgh paid a notable price to bring in Brassard late last season and the move didn’t exactly pay immediate dividends.  While he certainly gives them even more enviable depth down the middle, they’ve kicked around the idea of making him a top-six winger as well.  At either rate, Brassard should be able to command something slightly above the $5MM he’s currently making when he hits free agency which is going to probably make him too pricey to keep around.  Even if he plays at the wing next season, there will be plenty of teams that view him as a center and with the demand for that position only getting stronger, he will have plenty of suitors on the open market.

Hagelin’s addition (one that cost them David Perron and Adam Clendening) is one that the Penguins would probably like back in hindsight.  His speed is a real weapon but he has produced more like a third liner than a top-six forward.  Given how tight they are to the cap, they can’t have too many inefficiencies like that on their books.  Unless he’s willing to take a big pay cut, he likely won’t be back.  Sheahan fit in nicely after being acquired early on from Detroit.  He’ll slot in as the fourth line center (unless Brassard moves to the wing) which will limit his potential for a raise on his next contract.  DeSmith will hold down the fort as the backup while allowing Tristan Jarry to take advantage of his waiver exemption and play a starting role in the minors and then will likely cede his spot to Jarry for 2019-20.

As for the other four, none project to have a particularly notable role for the upcoming season and are basically just cheap roster fillers.  They’ll either be retained around that rate for next year or be replaced by someone else that’s willing to play for the league minimum (which moves to $700K in 2019-20).

Two Years Remaining

G Matt Murray ($3.75MM, RFA)
D Justin Schultz ($5.5MM, UFA)
F Dominik Simon ($750K, RFA)
F Daniel Sprong ($750K, RFA)

Murray’s first full season as the undisputed starter for Pittsburgh didn’t quite go as well as anticipated.  He struggled to stay healthy and wasn’t quite as effective as he was the year before.  If that continues, his next contract wouldn’t be for much more than his current one.  However, if he establishes himself as a high-end number one starter within the next two years, he could double his current deal (and potentially then some).  Needless to say, he’ll have a lot on the line over the next 24 months.

Schultz wasn’t able to come close to repeating his performance from the year before, the one that earned him his current contract.  They’ll be counting on him to rebound next season and if that doesn’t happen, he’ll start to be involved in trade speculation before too long.  Simon and Sprong are both youngsters that will be looking to establish themselves as full-time NHL players.  Assuming that happens over the next two seasons, they should be in line for a decent raise; Sprong has the higher-end earning potential if he can lock down a top-six spot over that stretch.

Three Years Remaining

D Jamie Oleksiak ($2.138MM, UFA)

Oleksiak fit in nicely after being acquired in a midseason deal from Dallas.  He’ll slot in on their third pairing and while that cap hit may be a little high for someone that’s likely to be a number six defender, they’ll certainly be pleased with having a bit more stability in that role after rotating a few different players through that spot in recent years.

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Zach Aston-Reese Has Fully Recovered From Concussion And Broken Jaw

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Penguins winger Zach Aston-Reese has fully recovered from the broken jaw and concussion he sustained on a hit in the second round of the postseason, notes NHL.com’s Adam Kimelman.  Prior to the injury, he had played a regular role for Pittsburgh in the playoffs and should get a chance to push for a full-time spot on the wing in training camp after the team dealt Conor Sheary to Buffalo while non-tendering Tom Kuhnhackl back in June.  However, with a cap hit ($925K) that’s higher than some of the other veterans on the depth chart, there’s a chance that the team could still opt to start him in the minors to keep a bit more cap space available for midseason movement as well; the 24-year-old still has one year of waiver exemption remaining.

Matt Cullen Likely To Retire Following 2018-19 Season

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While there has been a fair bit of speculation over the last few years regarding when center Matt Cullen may decide to call it a career, it appears he’s leaning towards making the upcoming season his last.  In an interview with Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, Cullen acknowledged that his current mindset is that he is entering his final year:

“I’m definitely going into [the 2018-19 season] thinking that this is probably it.  I’m not going to formally announce anything before the season starts, but I think this probably is it.”

Cullen quickly signed a one-year, league minimum contract with the Penguins at the beginning of free agency after spending last season with Minnesota.  He struggled with the Wild, collecting just 22 points in 79 games, his lowest output since 2003-04 while his average playing time dipped to a career-low 11:54 per night.  At one point last year, it was expected that Cullen was going to be dealt back to Pittsburgh and while the deal ultimately fell through, the 41-year-old believes it was “awfully close” to coming to fruition.

His role two years ago with the Pens was as their fourth line center but it’s far from a guarantee that he will be back in that spot.  Pittsburgh is set to get full seasons out of Derick Brassard and Riley Sheahan who presently slide into their final two spots down the middle while they also added Derek Grant last month in free agency with the expectation that he will push for a spot as well.  As a result, Cullen may be entering his final year as a player who may need injuries to strike to get significant playing time.

If he can find a way to get into 55 games next season though, he would reach the 1,500 games played mark for his career, something that only 18 other players in league history have managed to accomplish.  That would certainly be quite the milestone to cap his playing days.

New Jersey Devils To Hire Mark Dennehy As AHL Head Coach

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The New Jersey Devils have snatched a coach from the Pittsburgh Penguins organization, agreeing to terms with Mark Dennehy as head coach of their AHL affiliate. Dennehy had been hired earlier this offseason to lead the Wheeling Nailers of the ECHL, but was given permission to interview for the advanced position in the AHL. New Jersey AGM Tom Fitzgerald released a statement thanking the Penguins:

I want to thank Jim Rutherford, Bill Guerin, the Penguins’ organization and the Wheeling Nailers ownership group for the opportunity to speak with Mark on this position. Mark has spent considerable time building, coaching and recruiting in one of college hockey’s most competitive conferences. His experience will help him connect with players coming from the collegiate and junior hockey levels. Mark is extremely excited for a new challenge and to take the next step in his coaching career.

Dennehy has spent the last 13 years coaching Merrimack College, where he was tasked with developing young players and getting them ready for their transition into the professional ranks. He’ll be given a similar role with the Binghamton Devils, where the job is to get picks and prospects ready for their NHL futures while still maintaining a culture of winning.

The Contract Each Team Would Most Like To Trade: Part III

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Nearly every team has one of those players: a top talent they were excited to sign and never thought could do anything but help them. In hindsight, history shows that more often than not, expensive, long-term free agent contracts don’t work out. It may look good at first (or it may look bad right away to the outside observer), but players struggle to make their value last throughout a lengthy contract. Those contracts come back to bite teams and are hard to get rid of. As teams begin to finalize their rosters at this point in the off-season, many are struggling to make everyone fit under the salary cap and are regretting these past signings that exasperate a cap crunch that can be tough for even a mistake-free club. We already took a look at the first third and second third of the league; here are the contracts that each of the final ten teams would most like to trade, from Philadelphia to Winnipeg:

Philadelphia Flyers: Andrew MacDonald – two years, $10MM remaining

Based purely on salary versus what he brings to the table, Jori Lehtera’s $4.7MM contract is the worst on the Flyers. However, Philadelphia is far from cap trouble this season, currently among the five lightest payrolls in the league, and Lehtera’s deal expires after this season. However, next year the Flyers will need to re-sign or replace Wayne Simmonds, hand new deals to Ivan Provorov and Travis Konecny, and likely find a new starting goalie. The cap crunch will be much more real and the over-inflated $5MM contract of Andrew MacDonald will hurt. MacDonald’s six-year, $30MM contract was immediately panned by the public and it wasn’t long after that he was buried in the minors for cap relief and to keep him out of the lineup. MacDonald simply is not the player he was with the New York Islanders earlier in his career when he could eat major minutes, was stellar in man-to-man defense, and could block shots with the best. What he is being paid now is far beyond what he is actually worth. Some would say that Radko Gudas is worse, but that is an argument that suffers from recency bias. Combining the past two seasons, Gudas actually has the same amount of points as MacDonald in fewer games and less ice time, a better plus/minus rating, far more shots, and of course infinitely more hits. At $3.35MM for the next two years, Gudas is a far better deal.

Pittsburgh Penguins: Carl Hagelin – one year, $4MM remaining

The real answer is that GM Jim Rutherford would not like to trade any more players. He already ditched two of his worst contracts by sending Matt Hunwick and Conor Sheary to the Buffalo Sabres and he isn’t eager to make another salary dump. However, the reality is that Rutherford is going to find it hard to manipulate his roster this season with just over $1MM in cap space. As such, it is likely that another Penguin could be on the move. An outside observer could easily point to the Jack Johnson contract as one that stands little chance of maintaining its value over the term and the same argument could be made for Patric Hornqvist as well. However, Rutherford just signed those deals and wouldn’t move them even if he could. That leaves a short list of players who could be moved and the only one that sticks out as being overpriced is Carl Hagelin. Hagelin has played an important part of the Penguins’ reign over the past few years, but at $4MM he has not cracked 40 points in any of the three seasons and can go cold for weeks at a time. Rutherford won’t make a move unless it can benefit the team, but if he can get another scoring winger in exchange for a package that dumps Hagelin’s salary, he’ll do it.

San Jose Sharks: None

Mikkel Boedker, Joel Ward, and Paul Martin are all gone. Two top forwards, the two best defensemen, and the starting goalie are all locked up long-term at a reasonable rate. The Sharks have almost $4.5MM in cap space this season, giving them room to add. Congratulations to GM Doug Wilson and his staff. This roster is the epitome of cap compliance mixed with depth and talent. There is not one contract that the team would be interested in dumping.

St. Louis Blues: Alexander Steen – three years, $17.25MM remaining

The Blues currently have all but $285K of their cap space committed to 24 players. The team may send Chris Thorburn or Jordan Nolan down to the AHL, but will only gain marginal space. Something else has to give. If they could target any player to move to alleviate some pressure, it would be Alexander Steen. With just seven forwards and three defensemen (as of now) signed beyond next season and the majority of players in line for raises or free agent replacements, these cap woes aren’t going away anytime soon and an expensive long-term deal needs to be shipped out. Understandably, St. Louis is all in this season and wouldn’t be eager to ship out an important top-six piece. However, Ryan O’Reilly, Vladimir Tarasenko, Brayden Schenn, and Jaden Schwartz are the new young core up front now and paying 34-year-old Steen $5.75MM for three more years for declining production just doesn’t make sense. The Blues could potentially land some nice pieces from another contender for Steen as well. Admittedly, the Tyler Bozak contract looks even worse than Steen’s, but the Blues won’t be looking to trade a player they just signed.

Tampa Bay Lightning: Ryan Callahan – two years, $11.6MM remaining

The long-term implications of several other deals aside, the Lightning’s Stanley Cup window is wide open and their focus is on the here and now. The one player really impeding their ability to add freely to the roster is Ryan Callahan. While GM Steve Yzerman has excelled at extending most of his core below market value, the six-year, $34.8MM contract for Callahan was a mistake. Injuries limited Callahan to just 18 games in 2016-17, but last year he played in 67 games yet he only managed to score 18 points. Callahan’s days as an impact player are over, but he is still being paid like one at $5.8MM. While Tampa Bay can manage this season with close to $3MM in cap space, they would have more to work with without him. However, Callahan’s contract will really present a major road block next summer, when the Bolts need to re-sign Brayden Point, Yanni Gourde, Anton Stralman, and more. There is no doubt that Yzerman will look to unload Callahan’s contract before it comes to that point.

Toronto Maple Leafs: Nikita Zaitsev – six years, $27MM remaining

The Maple Leafs severely jumped the gun when they rewarded Nikita Zaitsev with a seven-year deal after his rookie season in 2016-17. Although Zaitsev was an import, making his NHL debut at 25 years old, his situation epitomizes why bridge deals exist. Toronto sought to lock him up long term and gave him nearly a maximum term at $4.5MM, just $500K less per year than top defender Morgan Rielly. In his encore performance last season, he showed that he is not worthy of the salary nor length of that contract, dropping from 36 points to 13 points for the year, turning the puck over at an alarming rate, and eventually becoming a healthy scratch. This team simply can’t afford the type of long-term mistake that they made with Zaitsev. While it’s nice that they have Reilly, John Tavares, and Nazem Kadri signed long-term, it’s Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, and William Nylander they need to worry about. The Maple Leafs will have to balance multiple expensive, long-term deals moving forward and would love for Zaitsev’s to not be one of them.

Vancouver Canucks: Loui Eriksson – four years, $24MM remaining

It seems unlikely that the recently-signed deals for Jay Beagle and Antoine Roussel will work out well, but they at least deserve some time. Loui Eriksson has had his time and has done nothing with it. While the Canucks aren’t under any cap pressure, they can’t enjoy seeing Eriksson’s $6MM cap hit – the highest on the team – on the books for four more years, especially when the bulk of his front-loaded salary has already been paid out. Eriksson was brought in with an expectation that he would be the ultimate fit with Daniel and Henrik Sedin. Instead, he has scored just 47 points combined over two seasons, less than his final season total with the Boston Bruins. The Sedins are now gone, the team is trying to get both younger and more physical and defensive-minded, and Eriksson is simply an expensive poor fit. There’s not much more to say about a player who desperately needs a change of scenery and a team that wants him gone.

Vegas Golden Knights: None

The Golden Knights are riding high after an outrageously successful first season in the NHL. It is highly unlikely that they see anything wrong with their current contracts, almost all of which were either hand-picked or signed by GM George McPhee. Give it some time and that could change. Reilly Smith is notorious for a significant drop in production in his second year with a team, but is signed for four more years at $5MM. Paul Stastny for three years at $6.5MM per seems like a solid deal, but he has always produced better surrounded by equal talent. Does Vegas have enough to justify his signing? A $2.775MM cap hit for Ryan Reaves doesn’t seem to make a whole lot of sense. Finally, there’s the three-year, $21MM extension for heroic goalie but also 33-year-old well-worn vet Marc-Andre Fleury, which could end poorly. And this isn’t even counting what could be a massive reactionary contract for one-year breakout star William Karlsson. The Knights don’t see any problems right now after finding immediate success, but if they slide significantly in year two, things could get ugly.

Washington Capitals: T.J. Oshie – seven years, $40.25MM remaining

No, it’s not Tom Wilson. The call of the question is which contract each team wants to trade, not which is objectively the worst. Wilson’s contract does seem excessive, but he is just 24 and could grow into that salary (doubtful but possible). Plus, the organization loves what he brings to the team. T.J. Oshie on the other hand is heading in the wrong direction. Oshie has done what he was brought in to do: help the Capitals win the Stanley Cup. It took a max eight-year term to keep Oshie off the market last summer and now Washington has their Cup but also has a 31-year-old with diminishing returns signed for seven more years. Oshie could absolutely still help the Capitals over the next few years, but it’s doubtful that he will be back in 60-point range in that time. He also will be nothing more than a cap space vacuum when he’s in his late thirties making $5.75MM. Oshie is a great player and one of the more likeable guys in the league, but this contract has little upside left. The Capitals would at the very least consider trading Oshie now, which can’t be said for most of their other core players.

Winnipeg Jets: Jacob Trouba – one year, $5.5MM remaining

The list ends with a tricky one. Is $5.5MM a fair value for Trouba? An arbitrator thinks so and the Jets would likely agree. However, Trouba’s contract has been a nightmare for the team. The young defenseman clearly does not want to be in Winnipeg and has set himself up for yet another arbitration clash next summer, after which he will bolt in free agency. The Jets have no long-term security with Trouba and that meddles with their future planning. With Blake Wheeler, Tyler Myers, and several others also in need of new contracts next summer, the Jets don’t need another Trouba arbitration award cutting into their cap space just so that he can walk after the season. The team will definitely look to get maximum value in a trade for Trouba over the next season.

Poll: Who Is The Most Likely To Bounce Back The Best From Injury?

at CDT | by 1 Comment

Injuries plague teams every year and are often hard to predict or prepare for. Yet every season, several key players find their seasons ruined due to an injury. While the league didn’t really lose a superstar player like the Tampa Bay Lightning did in 2016-17 when Steven Stamkos went down with a torn lateral meniscus in his knee and appeared in just 17 games. However, there quite a few players who went down for a chunk of time that definitely diminished their seasons. However, assuming everyone is back healthy, who will come back and have the best season next year?

Among those that missed the most time include Jeff Carter of the Los Angeles Kings, who missed 55 games with a leg injury. The 33-year-old posted a solid 13 goals and 22 points in 27 games when he returned and should be poised to put up big numbers next season, centering the second line likely alongside Tanner Pearson and Tyler Toffoli. The question is when will Father Time catch up with him. Speaking of Father Time, San Jose Sharks center Joe Thornton missed quite a bit of time in the second half of the season when he suffered a knee injury that knocked him out for 35 games. The 39-year-old posted 13 goals and 36 points last season in just 47 games and could put up more impressive numbers if he can get in a full season.

Several players suffered through injuries, but also saw their numbers decline due to the lack of success of their franchises, including the New York Rangers’ Chris Kreider. The 27-year-old was looked to a year ago to lead the team in scoring after he posted a 28-goal season in 2016-17, and had 11 goals before being diagnosed with a blood clot, requiring surgery. He came back to add another five, but was far from the star forward the struggling Rangers needed. Montreal Canadiens’ Max Pacioretty also struggled last year, posting just 17 goals in the first 64 games before going down for the season with a knee injury. That production was a far cry from the four straight 30+ goal seasons he has put together before that. Can he bounce back to form whether that’s with Montreal or another team?

The Rangers also were without their star defenseman Kevin Shattenkirk for 36 games with a knee injury. The team signed to a four-year, $26.6MM deal last offseason and was looked upon to quarterback the Rangers’ offense. However, the 29-year-old managed just five goals and 18 assists in 46 games. Defenseman Justin Schultz also didn’t produce the big season that the Pittsburgh Penguins were hoping for as the 28-year-old blueliner missed 19 games with a lower-body injury. He went from a 12-goal and 51-point season in 2016-17 season to just four goals and 27 points this past year.

Goaltending also has quite a few options on players hoping to bounce back and while the Chicago Blackhawks’ Corey Crawford might be an obvious candidate, the veteran goalie did post excellent numbers (2.28 GAA, .929 save percentage) before he went down with what is believed to be a concussion. However, Montreal’s Carey Price was struggling quite a bit when he went down with a concussion. Price, who had just signed an eight-year, $88MM extension last summer, did get into 49 games, but finished with a poor 3.11 GAA and a disappointing .900 save percentage. Price has bounced back before from a down season, so there is hope the superstar goaltender can bounce back. Finally Colorado’s Semyon Varlamov struggled with injuries the past two seasons, needing two hip surgeries a year ago and then had knee issues this year. In 51 games, Varlamov finished with a 2.68 GAA, but also now has to share duties with newly acquired Philipp Grubauer if he wants to bounce back, especially since he will be an unrestricted free agent in a year.

So which player will be able to rebound from injury and return themselves to an elite player?

Pro Hockey Rumors app users, click here to vote.

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