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Free Agent Focus: Edmonton Oilers

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The free agent period is now less than one week away from opening up and there are several prominent players set to hit the open market while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign.  Here is a breakdown of the Edmonton Oilers’ free agent situation.

Key Restricted Free Agents: F Leon Draisaitl. At 21 years old and coming off a 29-goal season (along with 77 total points), Draisaitl would likely be the most important restricted free agent in the entire NHL. The Oilers have already come out and stated they will match any offer, no matter how high to retain one of the franchise’s cornerstone pieces on their team and it will prove costly. The third overall pick in the 2014 draft has been unstoppable in just three short years and he’s nowhere close to his prime. Extending the young German forward is critical for the team and a big reason the team just traded Jordan Eberle to the Islanders to free as much cap space as it can to lock up Draisaitl and Connor McDavid, who they hope to extend this year as well.

Other RFA’s: F Zack Kassian, D Joey Laleggia, D David Musil, F Zachary Pochiro, F Henrik Samuelsson, D Dillon Simpson.

Key Unrestricted Free Agents: F Tyler Pitlick. A few days ago, veteran defender Kris Russell would have been in this spot, but the defender signed a four-year, $4MM per year deal to stay with the Oilers. That leaves very little to worry about on the unrestricted free agent front. However, if you really look, Pitlick still has a lot of potential. The only problem is the 25-year-old center is quite injury prone. In the last three years, he has not played in more than 37 games a season due to various injuries with the most recent being a torn ACL back in December. Although, he was having a strong season before that, scoring eight goals in those first 31 games. However, considering the Oilers may be looking for cheap players with potential, they might consider giving Pitlick one more chance.

Other UFA’s: F David Desharnais, F Justin Fontaine, D Mark Fraser, F Matt Hendricks, D Eric Gryba, D Jordan Oesterle.

Projected Cap Space: With the Eberle contract now off the books and Russell signed long-term, that allows Edmonton almost $20MM in cap space to work with and they will likely need a lot of that to give extensions to Draisaitl and McDavid. While McDavid is not a restricted free agent until next year, the team can lock him up starting this summer and would be smart to do so. With what’s left, the team may look to add a few veterans to fill out the lineup and help guide this young team even further next year.

 

 

Offseason Keys: Edmonton Oilers

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While expansion was the early headline in what will be a busy NHL offseason, there are still several other storylines for each team in the months to come. Here is a closer look at what lies ahead for the Edmonton Oilers.

After years of continued struggles, everything came together rather nicely for the Oilers in 2016-17.  Connor McDavid built on a strong rookie season with a Hart Trophy campaign while Cam Talbot provided the strong goaltending they had been seeking for a while.  As a result, they made it to the second round, providing plenty of reason for optimism in Edmonton.

GM Peter Chiarelli has been busy already this offseason with the recent trade of winger Jordan Eberle to the Islanders for center Ryan Strome plus the re-signing of Kris Russell.  Even with those off the board, there is still work to be done.  Here are three remaining offseason keys for the Oilers.

McDavid Extension

There has been talk of McDavid’s second contract since the time he signed his first one.  He has more than delivered in his first two seasons with Edmonton and Chiarelli has already indicated that this will be his top priority this summer.

Mar 12, 2017; Edmonton, Alberta, CAN; Edmonton Oilers forward Connor McDavid (97) skates against the Montreal Canadiens at Rogers Place. Mandatory Credit: Perry Nelson-USA TODAY SportsThere are two questions in play here – how much will it cost and how long will the contract be?  Regardless of the term, it’s going to be among the highest cap hits in the league and I don’t think anyone on either side would expect otherwise.

The term presents the more intriguing question.  He’s eligible to sign for as many as eight years and he sits four years away from unrestricted free agency eligibility.  While many have expected he’ll take the eight years, it was suggested last month that a five year term would be more preferable to McDavid.  While that would result in a lower pay day now, it would allow him to sign his next contract with all years being UFA ones and likely a higher salary cap at that time.  Whichever way they go, there’s little reason to think this won’t get done around July 1st, the first day he’s eligible to sign.

New Deal For Draisaitl

Edmonton has the highest scoring restricted free agent this summer in center Leon Draisaitl.  The German forward is coming off a breakout season where he tallied 29 goals and 48 assists and has shown himself to be a number one center.

Offer sheets are extremely rare now but given the massive contract McDavid will get on his next deal, some have wondered if Draisaitl could be targeted.  Chiarelli has already stated he’ll match any offer but that might not stop a team from trying.  If an opposing squad wanted to make life difficult for Edmonton cap-wise, they could offer as much $9.8MM for five years with the offer sheet compensation being two first rounders, a second, and a third.

The expectation is that the two sides should be able to work out a deal shortly after the McDavid one is finalized (and it’s that contract that will likely lay the foundation for this one) but if that isn’t the case, there may be a team that decides to try to roll the dice on an offer sheet (assuming Draisaitl is willing to sign it, of course).  Assuming there is no offer sheet, a new deal for the 21 year old should come in around the $7MM per season range.

Add Defensive Depth

The Oilers will be without blueliner Andrej Sekera for a notable period to start next season.  He suffered a torn ACL against the Ducks in the second round and will be out anywhere from six to nine months.  On the shorter end, he’d miss roughly the first six weeks of the season but at the longer end of the scale, that could be half the season.

The team is in much better shape defensively than they were a couple of years ago with both Darnell Nurse and Matt Benning faring well as youngsters but behind them, there isn’t much that’s ready right away.  Griffin Reinhart would have helped in that regard but he was picked by the Golden Knights in expansion.

Veteran Eric Gryba is set to become an unrestricted free agent and while bringing him back would help in terms of depth, it wouldn’t be surprising to see them set their heights a little higher in free agency.  It’s not likely that they will go after the big names – especially with their big two forwards set to receive huge raises – but finding someone capable of playing a fourth or fifth defender role would help ease the pain of missing Sekera early on while giving them strong third pairing options when everyone is healthy.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

NHL Awards Recap

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The NHL Awards were held Wednesday night and even though they were quite overshadowed by the simultaneous expansion draft selections, some interesting choices were made for the trophies. Below are the award winners, finalists and final voting totals:

Ted Lindsay Award — Most Outstanding Player (as voted by his peers)

Winner: Connor McDavid
Runners-up: Brent Burns, Sidney Crosby

Selke Award — Best Defensive Forward

Winner: Patrice Bergeron
Runners-up: Ryan Kesler, Mikko Koivu
Voting

Norris Trophy — Best Defenseman

Winner: Brent Burns
Runners-up: Erik Karlsson, Victor Hedman
Voting

Calder Trophy — Rookie Of The Year

Winner: Auston Matthews
Runners-up: Patrik Laine, Zach Werenski
Voting

General Manager Of The Year

Winner: David Poile
Runners-up: Peter Chiarelli, Pierre Dorion
Voting

Jack Adams Award — Coach Of The Year

Winner: John Tortorella
Runners-Up: Mike Babcock, Todd McClellan
Voting

Bill Masterton Award — Perseverance, Sportsmanship and Dedication

Winner: Craig Anderson
Runners-up: Andrew Cogliano, Derek Ryan

Lady Byng Trophy — Most Gentlemanly

Winner: Johnny Gaudreau
Runners-up: Vladimir Tarasenko, Mikael Granlund
Voting

Vezina Trophy — Goaltender Of The Year

Winner: Sergei Bobrovsky
Runners-up: Braden Holtby, Carey Price
Voting

Hart Trophy — Most Valuable Player

Winner: Connor McDavid
Runners-up: Sidney Crosby, Sergei Bobrovsky
Voting

NHL Awards Preview

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Caught up in the excitement of the Expansion Draft, it’s easy to forget that there is also an awards show tonight. Yes, the best trophy in all of sports, the Stanley Cup, has already been presented to the Pittsburgh Penguins, as has the Conn Smythe Trophy for playoff MVP to their captain, Sidney Crosby. Crosby also already locked up the Maurice “Rocket” Richard Trophy for the most regular season goals. Edmonton Oilers wunderkind Connor McDavid captured the Art Ross Trophy for the most regular season points as well. Braden Holtby locked up the William M. Jennings Trophy already too, as the Washington Capitals allowed the least amount of goals against in the regular season. Yet, all three of these players and many more still have a lot on the line tonight. Here are the nominees for tonight’s NHL Awards:

Hart Trophy – Most Valuable Player

Sergei Bobrovsky, Columbus Blue Jackets

  • Star goalie helped to lead the Blue Jackets to their best record in franchise history, all while topping the league in save percentage (.931) and goals against average (2.06)

Sidney Crosby, Pittsburgh Penguins

  • The NHL’s leading goal-scorer and back-to-back winner of the Stanley Cup and Conn Smythe Trophy

Connor McDavid, Edmonton Oilers

  • 20-year-old phenom led the league in points and assists and took his team from the draft lottery to the second round of the playoffs

Norris Trophy – Best Defenseman

Brent Burns, San Jose Sharks

  • Not only led all defenseman in scoring with 76 points, but finished ninth overall among some of the league’s most dynamic forwards. Can check with the best of them as well.

Victor Hedman, Tampa Bay Lightning

  • A down year for the Bolts was a career year for Hedman, who finished just four points behind Burns with 72, and led all blue liners with 56 assists

Erik Karlsson, Ottawa Senators

  • If this award had been voted on after the playoffs, it might have been a different result. The NHL’s best puck-mover may still pull it off behind a 71-point campaign and an improved defensive game

Read more

Latest From Insider Trading: Duchene, Barrie, Oilers

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In the latest edition of Insider Trading from TSN (video link), Bob McKenzie reports that Avalanche forward Matt Duchene is the “player most likely” to be traded this summer.  Duchene has long been linked to the rumor mill throughout this past season but GM Joe Sakic’s asking price was too high to get an in-season deal done.

The 26 year old is coming off a down year with Colorado, recording 18 goals and 23 assists in 77 games, his lowest full-season output since 2011-12.  He has two years remaining on his current contract with a cap hit of $6MM before being eligible for unrestricted free agency.  The current free agent crop is lacking in impact top six forwards so despite a high price, there should be several teams interested in his services.

While McKenzie wouldn’t guarantee a deal gets done during the offseason, he classifies the situation as one where both the Avalanche and Duchene are hoping for a fresh start.

Other notes to pass along from the segment (although the full video is worth a watch):

  • The belief is that Sakic is still coveting a top blueliner in order to let Duchene go. Darren Dreger notes that part of the reason for that is to potentially allow Colorado to then move defenseman Tyson Barrie.  The 25 year old is a strong producer from the back end although his play in his own end has been a concern for them for a while now.  Barrie has three years left on his deal at a $5.5MM cap charge and Dreger believes it will take a top draft pick or a combination of picks and prospects to get a deal done.
  • While some expected that Edmonton’s Connor McDavid would see his extension for 2018-19 done before the team tries to deal with pending RFA Leon Draisaitl but Dreger reports that the Oilers would like to get both done at the same time. These two contracts will be the top priority in Edmonton this summer and considering the dollars it will take to get both done, they would undoubtedly like to get those contracts done sooner than later so they have a better sense of their salary cap situation before getting too deep into free agency or the trade market.
  • On that note, Dreger suggests that Oilers winger Jordan Eberle will “definitely get traded” this summer. Clearing his $6MM cap hit for two more years would ensure that Edmonton has plenty of money to get McDavid and Draisaitl’s new contracts done.  Earlier this week, GM Peter Chiarelli stated that he doesn’t think that they necessarily have to make a cap-clearing move this offseason but that they will have to at some point in the next couple of seasons.  Like Duchene, Eberle is a top six forward in a market that doesn’t have many of them available so the timing may be right for Chiarelli to do a deal now.

Snapshots: Price, Johansen, Cincinnati

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Beginning on July 1, several notable players will be eligible to sign contract extensions ahead of the final year of their contracts. Connor McDavid is the biggest name, but Carey Price is in a similar stratosphere.

The superstar goaltender is entering the final year of his six-year, $39MM contract ($6.5MM AAV), signed back in 2012. Price has a no-move clause (NMC) which allows him to submit a list of 15-team trade list.

According to TSN’s Pierre LeBrun, Canadiens GM Marc Bergevin and Price’s agent Gerry Johansson will meet next week to begin discussions. The two have had some preliminary discussions at the World Championships earlier this month, but have not had any “real negotiations” yet. The two sides are reportedly aiming to have something ready for Price to sign on July 1.

The Price contract will have a big impact on the Canadiens’ plans going forward. While he could command in the neighborhood of $10MM, that would negatively impact Bergevin’s ability to bring in offensive help, something the Canadiens desperately need.

  • Nashville center Ryan Johansen appeared on TSN 1040 in Vancouver, and opened up about his season-ending injury and comments about Ducks shut-down center Ryan Kesler. Johansen took a hit from Josh Manson, and was going to pull himself out of the game when the game ended in overtime. By the time Johansen hit the showers, he was unable to walk and had emergency surgery just hours later. He’s expected to make a full recovery, which is good news considering the serious risks related to acute compartment syndrome. Regarding Kesler, Johansen said his only regret was not being able to shake the Ducks’ hands at the end of the series.
  • The Buffalo Sabres have found a new AA affiliate, signing an agreement with the Cincinnati Cyclones. The Sabres’ previous ECHL affiliate, the Elmira Jackals, folded earlier this year. The Cyclones were previously affiliated with the Nashville Predators organization. This isn’t the first time there has been an agreement between Buffalo and Cincinnati; back in the 1970s, the Sabres had the Cincinnati Swords as their AHL affiliate. With the AHL above them, the ECHL is generally low on NHL prospects; just four Sabres prospects played in Elmira last season.

Pacific Notes: McDavid, Simek, Rakell, Eaves

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Extension talks have yet to begin between the Oilers and Connor McDavid’s camp but there are already plenty of theories as to what it may take to sign him.  Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman suggests (video link) that one potential avenue that McDavid may consider is to not sign the maximum eight year deal but rather something around five seasons, similar to what other top players such as Sidney Crosby, Steven Stamkos, and Patrick Kane (among others) have done in the past.

Doing so would then allow McDavid to be eligible for unrestricted free agency sooner and would allow him to potentially cash in on a max-term, bigger money deal at that time.  From the standpoint of the Oilers, this route would allow them to save a bit on his AAV as he still has four years of team control remaining once his contract expires in 2018.  With Leon Draisaitl needing a new contract as well, that extra money could come in handy.  In the same video, Sportsnet’s Nick Kypreos notes that the expectation is that the AAV for both young stars will be pretty close on their second deals, potentially within $500K.

Elsewhere in the Pacific:

  • The Sharks have agreed to terms with Czech defenseman Radim Simek, according to an iSport report in the Czech Republic (link in Czech). Simek’s European agent, Petr Hemsky, confirmed to them that Simek has signed a one year deal worth $830K if he’s with San Jose for the entire season.  There is likely a signing bonus not included in that amount as Simek will receive an entry-level contract.  The article states that the Rangers were also interested while it was reported last week that Vancouver was also interested in Simek’s services.
  • The Ducks won’t be getting any help from the infirmary when it comes to their elimination game against the Predators on Monday night. The team announced (Twitter link) that both Patrick Eaves and Rickard Rakell did not travel with the team to Nashville and will not play in Game Six.  Both players are currently dealing with lower body injuries and were the only 30 goal scorers on Anaheim’s roster this season.

Takeaways From Peter Chiarelli’s Year-End Press Conference

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The fact that the Oilers will be without top-four defenseman Andrej Sekera for a decent chunk of next season wasn’t the only notable bit of news that  came from GM Peter Chiarelli’s year-end press conference on Tuesday.

He also discussed his summer plans for the team, and no, he doesn’t see another Taylor Hall-for-Adam Larsson type blockbuster. Chiarelli did say that he was open to the idea of trading down in the upcoming Entry Draft; the team has the 22nd overall pick, no second, and two third-round picks in the first 93 picks. Because this draft is seen as weaker than previous years, Chiarelli said acquiring a second-round pick isn’t a necessity but that if a trade came up, he’d consider moving down from #22 to acquire more picks.

Also on the trade front, Chiarelli called the widespread criticism of Jordan Eberle and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins’s playoffs unfair. Trade speculation has run wild around those two, especially Eberle, but Chiarelli pumped the breaks on the suggestion that they need to be dumped at any cost. He praised Eberle’s improvement along the boards, and talked about the lack of confidence that the sniper suffered from. Eberle took 208 shots, which is the most he’s taken so far in his seven-year career, but shot at just a nine per cent rate, considerably down from his previous career-average of 14 per cent. Had he shot at that rate, he’d have scored 29 goals instead of 20. Chiarelli stressed that the team will be “careful about how [they] evaluate him.”

As far as Nugent-Hopkins, the general manager stressed the team-wide need of improving in the face-off circle. Chiarelli said that he gave Nugent-Hopkins “homework” for the summer. While Chiarelli kept a positive tone publicly, with both men on the trading block it would have been a poor decision to criticize them. With questions remaining about what position Leon Draisaitl will ultimately play and the acquisition of David Desharnais not being overly successful, Chiarelli will likely be looking to give Todd McLellan some more options in the face-off circle.

The main priority for Edmonton is signing their two best forwards to new contracts. Draisaitl is an RFA this summer, and Connor McDavid will be eligible to extend his deal on July 1. Chiarelli called McDavid priority one and Draisaitl priority two of this summer. All other free agents, like rugged winger and playoff cult hero Zack Kassian and controversial defenseman Kris Russell will have to wait until Chiarelli knows what sort of numbers he’s dealing with. The two men combined for about $6.4MM in cap space this past season (entry-level contracts plus bonuses), but will account for as much as $20MM by next season.

As far as the potential of a rival team offer sheeting Draisaitl, Chiarelli isn’t worried about that. Last week, I wrote about why offer sheets are so rare, and Chiarelli mentioned one of the stated reasons. The Oilers have the cap space to match any offer sheet to Draisaitl, so the only reason another team would submit an offer is to jack up the price. It’s highly unlikely that a team would go out of their way to try hurt another team’s cap situation because of the negative affect it would have on that GM’s reputation.

Had Sekera not been injured, the Oilers defense might not have had any changes on opening night. Oscar Klefbom is developing into a good top-pairing defenseman, Larsson had a strong first season, Darnell Nurse and Matt Benning have made strides together, and Chiarelli expressed interest in re-signing Russell and Eric Gryba. Chiarelli admitted the team doesn’t have a championship defense (yet). He pointed to Nashville and Anaheim, saying that “it would be nice to have a D at that level.”

Russell is loved by old-school hockey people, and considered highly overrated by people with a mind for advanced stats. While Russell blocks a ton of shots (213 in 68 games), he bleeds possession and hasn’t had a positive CF% Rel. (scoring chances when he’s on the ice compared to off the ice) since 2012 when he was in Columbus. He also scored just one goal this season despite playing the third-most minutes of all skaters. However, the injury to Sekera could motivate the Oilers to sign Russell to help fill the void. As mentioned above, Chiarelli will wait until he knows what McDavid and Draisaitl will cost before making any considerable signing, even if it means waiting until after July 1.

Chiarelli said the team blew his expectations out of the water, finishing with 103 points and getting to Game 7 of the second round. This summer will be about locking up key pieces and letting the young roster develop next season.

Oilers Notes: Free Agents, Draisaitl, Eberle, Pouliot

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The Edmonton Oilers were eliminated by the Anaheim Ducks in Game 7 on Wednesday night; now comes the post-season autopsies and plans for the coming summer.

The face of the franchise and perhaps the league, Connor McDavid is eligible to sign an extension on July 1. Pending-RFA Leon Draisaitl lead the Oilers in playoff scoring after finishing eighth in the NHL during the regular season. Those two players will go from entry-level contracts to somewhere between $16-20MM by next summer.

The upcoming McDavid contract has already been the subject of much digital ink. Now, Draisaitl’s breakout season has lead to questions about what he’s worth. At the beginning of the year, the debate was bridge-deal or long-term. After a 77-point campaign, it’s clear that the Oilers will be looking long-term with their young star. Over at Sportsnet, Jonathan Willis explored previous contracts for comparable stars. Based on contracts signed by players like Taylor Hall, Jordan Eberle, Anze Kopitar, and Johnny Gaudreau, Willis writes that Draisaitl’s new contract ought to be in the $6 to $6.5MM range. However, because of Draisaitl’s 37-game rookie season and the influence of McDavid, Willis notes that both sides have leverage.

Other free agents include Kris Russell, Zack Kassian, and Matt Hendricks. Hendricks will certainly be off the books, clearing close to $2MM. Russell will be interesting, as he’s the only member of the regular top-six who’s not under contract next season. If the Oilers want to improve their blue line, then Russell’s spot is the clear choice to upgrade.

  • On Thursday morning, the Oilers announced that Draisaitl will join Germany at the IIHF World Championships in Paris, France, and Cologne, Germany.  The native of Cologne ought to help Germany’s chances, as the team has just one regulation win in four games so far. It’s been a busy season for Draisaitl, who has played 104 games since mid-August beginning with the Olympic Qualifiers, the World Cup of Hockey, all 82 NHL regular season games, and then 13 NHL playoff games.
  • Eberle’s poor regular season and playoffs may mean he’s on the way out. He didn’t score a single goal during the playoffs, and was even outscored by Nashville goaltender Pekka Rinne by a score of three assists to two.  As Sportsnet’s Luke Fox puts it, “You’re selling low on Jordan Eberle, but you’re still selling, right?” Provided the Oilers can find more scoring depth on the right wing, then expect Eberle to be on his way out. Fox suggests Carolina, New Jersey, and Vegas as possible trade partners.
  • Left-winger Benoit Pouliot also struggled mightily this season, with just 14 points in the regular season and none in the playoffs. He also comes at a $4MM price tag, which makes any trade unlikely. He’ll be exposed to Vegas, with perhaps a prospect or pick offered as a sweetner. Failing that, a buyout could be the next option. It was a bad year, but Pouliot has previously scored a solid rate while being an aggressive forechecker and good penalty-killer. His penchant for bad penalties got him in coach Todd McLellan’s doghouse and he couldn’t play his way out.

Ted Lindsay Finalists Released

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The NHL has revealed the three finalists for the Ted Lindsay Award: Brent Burns, Sidney Crosby, and Connor McDavid.

The award goes to the player judged to be the most outstanding player in the league. The biggest difference between the Hart and the Lindsay is who votes; the Hart is voted on by the Professional Hockey Writers Association (PHWA) and the Lindsay is voted on by NHL players. It’s for this reason that players often seen the Lindsay as a more prestigious award to win, as it’s voted on by their peers.

Burns had a fantastic season, finishing ninth in NHL scoring. His 29 goals and 76 points were the highest by a defenseman, six more than Senators captain Erik Karlsson. Burns lead the Sharks in scoring by eight points (Joe Pavelski had 68), and was the most dangerous player on the ice for the Sharks on most nights. Going against Burns, however, is his 16-game goalless drought towards the end of the season. After scoring 27 goals in 59 games, Burns didn’t score between February 19 and March 28. However, that also illustrates the sheer dominance of Burns prior to the drought. Also, Karlsson had 82 points in 82 games in 2015-16 and failed to even be nominated for Lindsay or Hart. The last time a defenseman won the Award was 1974-75 when some guy named Bobby Orr won it.

Crosby is the only finalist who has won the award before, having won it three times in 2006-07, 2012-13, and 2013-14. Crosby had 44 goals and 89 points in 75 games this season. His 44 goals were good to win the Rocket Richard Trophy for the NHL’s leading goal scorer. Crosby scored 17 more points than his Penguins teammate Evgeni Malkin. Crosby is three-for-three when nominated for the Award.

However, the odds-on favorite is likely Oilers captain McDavid, who was the only 100-point scorer in the NHL this season. The 20-year-old McDavid scored 30 goals and 100 points in 82 games, winning the Art Ross trophy by 11 points over Crosby and Patrick Kane, both of whom had 89 points. While the other two finalists play for perennial contenders, McDavid was a huge part of the Oilers’ jump up the standings from 29th to 8th in the league.

The winner will be revealed at the NHL Awards in Las Vegas on June 21.

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