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Trade Rumors: Senators, Blackhawks, Avalanche

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With leading scorer Matt Duchene on injured reserve and expected out for “weeks”, what little chances the Ottawa Senators had of making the playoffs this season are likely to slip away. This was always the expected result of the 2018-19 season for Ottawa, but their efforts thus far to stay out of the basement of the NHL have surprised many and inspired some. However, as reality now begins to finally set in, the team must decide what they want to do with Duchene and fellow impending free agents Mark Stone and Ryan Dzingel. As Ken Warren of the Ottawa Sun writes, Duchene – currently tied for ninth in the league in scoring – will likely ask for an eight-year deal in the ballpark of $60-70MM to remain in Ottawa, reflective of the salary he will likely command on the open market. Stone will be in the same neighborhood, with Dzingel significantly lower albeit not cheap by any means, but the Senators cannot even begin negotiations with the pair until the new year, per the rules pertaining to their recent salary arbitration decisions. As such, the team is dealing with three high-quality expiring assets without any guarantee that they will be re-sign or if the team will be willing to meet their salary demands. In a season in which Ottawa could finish with one of the worst records in the league but lacks their first-round pick – given to the Colorado  Avalanche in the deal that landed Duchene – it stands to reason that GM Pierre Dorion will strongly consider recouping as much trade capital as possible if extensions are not in place by the trade deadline. Given the uncertainly surrounding the ownership status of Eugene Melnyk, whose tactics thus far leave much to be desired anyway, Warren believes that Duchene, Stone, and Dzingel, as well as any other free agent in the coming off-season, will think twice about a future in Ottawa. All things considered, it’s beginning to look like the trio stand a better chance to all be traded away in the coming months than any of them do of signing a long-term extension.

  • The Athletic’s Graeme Nichols wonders if yet another Senator is prime trade bait right now as well. With veteran goaltender Craig Anderson playing his best hockey of the season so far, Nichols opines that Ottawa would be best-served to try moving their starter while his stock is high. While the recent home-and-home series with the Montreal Canadiens did not go so well, Anderson did look very good in wins over the New York Rangers and San Jose Sharks prior, recording 63 saves on 65 shots over the two contests. Anderson also made 48 saves against the Dallas Stars last month and notched wins over the Tampa Bay Lighting and Pittsburgh Penguins. Admittedly, even as this best, Anderson is still a 37-year-old replacement-level goaltender at this point in his career and won’t command much of a return. However, the Senators’ season is sinking and they should get what they can while his value is potentially at its peak. The knock on moving Anderson this season has been that Ottawa has no suitable replacement – backups Mike Condon and Mike McKenna have performed very poorly in limited appearances – and thus trading Anderson means giving up on the season. Yet, with Duchene out long-term, any postseason hopes will fade and moving Anderson will begin to make more sense. As Nichols recalls, Anderson himself also alluded to a desire to move on from Ottawa this summer, so making a deal seems to be in the best interest of all parties. There are plenty of teams out there who would be intrigued by adding an established veteran in net this year and Anderson could soon fill that role.
  • The Chicago Blackhawks made it known yesterday that they are looking to move out some of their defensive depth, but NBC Sports’ James O’Brien asks if they are focused on the wrong players. Rather than try to flip the likes of Brandon Manning or Jan Rutta, for which they would receive relatively little, O’Brien believes that the team’s long-term needs would be better served by trading away a mainstay like Duncan Keith or Brent Seabrook. This is not so cut-and-dry, as O’Brien admits, but would be worth looking into. Both players carry no-trade clauses that Chicago GM Stan Bowman would first need to ask them to waive. Even if Seabrook was to agree, it seems very unlikely that Bowman would find a taker for the depreciating defenseman and his albatross of a contract. If by some chance he does, it would be a small return similar to Manning or Rutta, but with a far greater salary cap relief. Keith is another matter; while not what he once was, the 35-year-old is still a very capable defenseman who would play in the top four for nearly every team in the NHL, at least for now. The worry is that Keith will continue to age and his ability will fall off, while the Blackhawks continue to pay him more than $5.5MM per year and rely on him for top minutes. Removing that crutch (and cap hit) now, in what appears to be another lost season for the team, would give Chicago a strong return that they could use to begin rebuilding the team. The alternative, which also appears to be the current plan, of waiting for the current roster to turn things around, will only increase the risk of injury or drop-off from Keith while damaging his market value as he ages. A move now would be painful to the fan base in the short term, but the right move looking toward the future.
  • One team who could be a dangerous player at the trade deadline this season are the Colorado Avalanche. Per CapFriendly, the Avs are currently projected to have more than $56MM in cap space available at the deadline, or in other words have no limit to the amount of talent they can bring in if they so choose. Colorado is currently tied for the lead in the Central Division with the Nashville Predators and could even emerge as President’s Trophy threats this season. Armed with the best line in the NHL, including the top two scorers in the league, Mikko Rantanen and Nathan MacKinnon, and the best power play as well, the Avalanche are second in goals for per game among all teams. They also play well in their own end, seventh in goals against per game behind the efforts of Semyon Varlamov. Yet, the Avalanche are not without fault and could stand to add a contributor or two both on defense and up front. The team was expected to add top prospect Cale Makar to their blue line by the end of the regular season, but with his college squad, the UMass Minutemen, ranked No. 1 in the nation, Makar could be occupied through the Frozen Four tournament in mid-April. A capable puck-moving defenseman should thus be at the top of the list for Colorado, followed by an injection of offensive ability and two-way accountability among the forward corps, where their secondary scoring and penalty kill could both use work. While the matter of cost in trade capital is another question entirely, the Avalanche will have the cap space to hypothetically address their needs by adding the likes of Jordan Eberle, Kevin Hayes, and Jay Bouwmeester for example. That’s a dangerous premise for other contenders to consider as Colorado continues to excel this season.

What Your Team Is Thankful For: Colorado Avalanche

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As the holiday season approaches, PHR will take a look at what teams are thankful for as the season heads past the one-quarter mark. There also might be a few things your team would like down the road. Let’s take a look at what’s gone well in the early going and what could improve as the season rolls on for the Colorado Avalanche. 

What are the Avalanche most thankful for?

The continued improvement. Last season the Colorado Avalanche had an incredible season, going from one of the worst teams in the league to just squeaking into the playoffs. Colorado found themselves matched up with the top team in the league in the Nashville Predators and while no one gave the Avalanche any chance to beat the powerhouse squad, but the team still managed to take two games from them. This year has only gotten better for the franchise as they are currently tied for first place with the Predators in the Central Division and have started to show that they have an impressive team that is only getting better.

Who are the Avalanche most thankful for?

Their top line. Colorado’s top line of Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen and Gabriel Landeskog was impressive last year, but they have only gotten better this year. MacKinnon, who had a breakout season last year after posting 39 goals last year, already has 18 goals and is on pace for an even bigger year. MacKinnon, the runner-up for the Hart Trophy, could take the award this year with the way he is playing as he has 41 points already and he’s not even at the half-way point of the season.

Rantanen already has 11 goals and 43 points in just 26 games as he’s on pace for an even bigger season. He could be one of MacKinnon’s biggest challengers for the Hart Trophy if the 22-year-old continues to play the way he has. Landeskog, on the other hand, is playing well with 15 goals already, which likely has him headed for a career-high. While they were a very good line a year ago, the pairing has become one of the top lines in the NHL now. With Landeskog only being 26 and the veteran of the group, the line could be together for a long time.

What would the Avalanche be even more thankful for?

Secondary scoring. One of the team’s biggest problems is getting more scoring from its other lines. Many people felt that Tyson Jost and J.T. Compher might step up as well as other players, including Alexander Kerfoot and Colin Wilson. While they each have made some contributions, none of them have taken the next step. Jost has shown to be impressive when moved to the second line, yet he has just four goals and 10 points this season. Compher could be the answer, but has been out with a head injury. However, he has seven goals in the 10 games he’s played this year. Kerfoot has 18 points in 26 games, but only four of those are goals, while Wilson has seven goals and 10 points in 26 games.

The team needs one or two of these players (and preferably everyone) to take that next step and start providing the team with secondary scoring so when the first line gets shut down, the team doesn’t get shutout.

What should be on the Avalanche’s Holiday Wish List?

A young impact player. The team is quite young, but there is more talent on the way. The team could get a significant boost from 2017 first-round pick Cale Markar. The 20-year-old defenseman has been lighting up the college scene this year with the University of Massachusetts – Amherst. After posting respectable numbers as a freshman of five goals and 21 points in 34 games for the Minutemen, he has already topped those numbers in just 13 appearances. He already has six goals and 18 points with more than half a season to go. If the team can convince him to turn pro after the season, there is a good chance the fourth-overall pick could step right onto the ice during the stretch-run of the season and give the team another impact player on their defense.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Snapshots: Three Stars, RFAs, Marleau

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The NHL has released their latest Three Stars of the Week, and to absolutely no one’s surprise Patrik Laine finds himself on top. Despite plenty of other outstanding performances last week, Laine was the easy choice after scoring 11 goals in just four games including a five-goal effort on Saturday night. The young Winnipeg Jets forward set all kinds of franchise records with the outstanding performance, and joined an incredibly small group of players to post five goals in a game before their 21st birthday. Only Laine, Don Murdoch and Wayne Gretzky have ever done so; Laine will have to do it again this season to tie Gretzky with two such performances.

Coming in second and third this week are Marc-Andre Fleury and Nikita Kucherov, two players well versed in this award. Fleury earned third star honors just over a month ago, while Kucherov has been in the top three several times throughout his career. The Vegas Golden Knights goaltender and Tampa Bay Lightning forward will have to continue their strong play if they hope to compete for the Stanley Cup again this season, and may even find themselves on this list again down the road.

Mikko Rantanen Fined For Embellishment

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The NHL has issued a $2,000 fine to Colorado Avalanche forward Mikko Rantanen, citing two instances in which he broke Rule 64 for Diving/Embellishment this season. Fines will increase for Rantanen for any subsequent instances, and eventually include financial punishment to head coach Jared Bednar as well. The first incident, which garnered just a warning, was on October 16th against the New York Rangers, while the latest was during a November 14th game against the Boston Bruins.

Rantanen has been one of the league’s brightest stars this season and still leads the entire NHL in scoring with 32 points. His play alongside Nathan MacKinnon has been a revelation, and has the Avalanche poised to become one of the league’s most dangerous offensive teams. Unfortunately with this history, he’ll now be watched even more closely by the officials and may not get the benefit of the doubt on close calls. He also could very well draw the ire of his coaching staff if he causes them to be fined, or costs his team with an ill-timed penalty.

Central Notes: Jost, Zadorov, Nichushkin, Kane

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With a dominant top line that includes Nathan MacKinnon, Gabriel Landeskog and Mikko Rantanen, the Colorado Avalanche can’t be happier as they have combined for 75 points so far this season. However, the biggest concern for the team has been their secondary scoring, which most recently seems to have improved when the team re-inserted center Tyson Jost together with wingers Alex Kerfoot and Colin Wilson, according to Kyle Newman of the Denver Post.

Jost had spent some time with that line earlier this year, but between a demotion to the team’s fourth line and an injury that kept him out for four games, Jost finally got a chance to center the two wingers and has made the most of his opportunity with a pair of goals in the past week as well as improved play from both Wilson and Kerfoot.

“It’s tough to score every night, but I want to see them generate chances every night and I want to see them doing the right things defensively,” Colorado head coach Jared Bednar said. “They’re starting to earn more trust on the defensive side of the puck as a young line, and they’re finding ways to chip in, and the last (few games) are a prime example.”

  • Sticking with the Avalanche, Ryan S. Clark of The Athletic (subscription required) writes that Bednar has lost faith for the time being in defenseman Nikita Zadorov, who led the league in hits with 278 last year and averaged 19:28 of ice time last season. However, his role has changed as he is averaging just 15:12, was benched in the third period Wednesday against Boston and then finally was a healthy scratch for the team’s game against Washington on Friday. “We’ve got some D that are playing well,” Bednar said. “Like I said, we’ve got the depth at D now, seven (defensemen) and sometimes you gotta make tough decisions. … Sometimes that means moving around the lineup, elevating guys, lowering guys in the lineup with their minutes. Other times it means you have to make tough decisions and scratch some guys. That’s what we did with Nikita. He’s going to get an opportunity to go back in and continue to play. We’ll see how the game goes.”
  • Dallas Stars winger Valeri Nichushkin hasn’t scored an NHL goal in 989 days. Granted, he just spent the last two season in the KHL, which has something to do with that statistic. However, Nichushkin went 26 combined regular season and playoff games without scoring back in 2016 and now has gone 14 straight goalless games this season, according to SportsDay’s Matthew DeFranks. His struggles are not stopping him, however. “Tough start, but I feel better every game, especially the last three games, I had a lot of moments,” Nichushkin said. “I need to score and I think everything will be good. Team’s winning so I don’t care. I know I will be better.”
  • Chicago Blackhawks new head coach Jeremy Colliton has utilized the strategy of playing Patrick Kane as much as possible since he’s taken over, but another interesting stat is that Colliton has used Kane almost entirely on the power play, according to the Chicago Tribune’s Jimmy Greenfield. In fact, Kane has been used for 16:50 of power play time under Colliton in a total of 17:52, an unbelievable usage rate for a 30-year-old player. “I don’t think it’s been a problem so far, and I think the power play’s moving in the right direction,” Colliton said. “I thought the power play was better tonight than it was against St. Louis, but we scored against St. Louis so it (wasn’t) a talking point. We’ve just got to work on it.”

Atlantic Notes: Bergeron, Helm, Marner, Price

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The Boston Bruins already have plenty of injury concerns this season, especially on the defensive end. However, it may have gotten worse as the Bruins announced in an injury breakdown, that they have sent Patrice Bergeron back to Boston to be re-evaluated for his upper-body injury by team doctors with two games left on their road trip. That means that Bergeron is out for Saturday’s game against Arizona, although considering their next game won’t be until Wednesday, he could return to the team before then.

The team also reported that defenseman John Moore, already listed as day-to-day, has also left with Bergeron for Boston to get his lower-body injury looked at by doctors. The release also notes that Zdeno Chara, who was listed as out for four to six weeks, will not be re-evaluated for another four weeks.

While many were already aware of the defensive injuries, however the loss of Bergeron would be another devastating blow. The 33-year-old was driven into the boards on Friday on a hit from Dallas’ Radek Faksa. Bergeron has nine goals and 26 points in 19 games this season and anchors one of the top lines in the NHL.

  • The Detroit Red Wings may be without a forward as well as Detroit Free Press’ Helene St. James reports that Darren Helm, who left the first period of today’s game against New Jersey after taking a hard hit from Travis Zajac, could be out for a while. Red Wings head coach Jeff Blashill said that he had no timetable for his injury, but the 31-year-old winger was holding his right wrist after it had taken the brunt of his fall to the ice.
  • Steve Simmons of the Toronto Sun writes that with the way that Toronto Maple Leafs’ Mitch Marner has been playing lately, he is likely to fetch a huge price when he hits restricted free agency at the end of the year. The 21-year-old Marner, who has 26 points in the first 20 games is currently on a trajectory to hit 106 points this season and become the franchise’s first 100-point winger. That could cost the team that has carefully weighed each players’ salary carefully before signing John Tavares this summer. With holdout William Nylander asking for big numbers on his next contract, Marner could complicate things for Toronto as well as he might be the best young winger outside of Colorado’s Mikko Rantanen and Boston’s David Pastrnak.
  • Montreal Canadiens Carey Price’s numbers may not be particularly impressive as he owns a 2.99 GAA and a .899 save percentage. However, after an impressive performance against the Calgary Flames on Thursday, The Athletic’s Paul Campbell (subscription required) analyzes the 31-year-old’s play and notes that Price is starting to adapt to a combination of his aging skills and the improved shootings skills of younger forwards. The scribe breaks down his play Thursday, writing that if Price can continue to play like that, then the Canadiens have a chance to fare well this season.

 

Central Notes: Landeskog, Rinne, Schmaltz

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Colorado Avalanche forward Gabriel Landeskog has made quite a name for himself as he currently is tied for the NHL lead in goals scored with 11. That’s quite a feat for a player, who has averaged 20 goals a season for the past seven seasons, a number he could surpass before Thanksgiving. Regardless, Landeskog says most of his success comes from a combination of playing with the top line of Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen, as well as his growing skills and confidence on the ice, according to Sean Keeler of the Denver Post.

“It’s just a combination of luck and hard work and confidence, and being in the right place at the right time,” Landeskog said. “I think, right now, I don’t think there’s a reason maybe other than our line’s played really well and has been able to create some scoring chances. Together with those two guys, yeah, I’ve been able to put some in the back of the net.”

While Landeskog’s game could easily drop back to earth at any time, many feel that the 25-year-old, a former second-overall pick back in 2011, may just have finally found his game.

“I think he’s worked on (his shooting), he’s worked on his touch around the net,” Avs coach Jared Bednar said. “He’s getting into those areas more, and he’s coming up with rebounds and loose pucks. And part of that is his teammates being able to move the puck into those areas on a more consistent basis.”

  • The Athletic’s Adam Vingan reports that one potential problem that could come with Pekka Rinne’s new two-year extension that he signed earlier today would be that there could be some expansion ramifications for the Nashville Predators. The scribe notes that since Rinne will have the same no-movement clause in his next contract, the Predators could be forced to protect Rinne and have to expose Juuse Saros to the Seattle expansion franchise in a couple of years. However, Rinne could opt to waive the no-movement clause as well and allow himself to be taken by Seattle like Marc-Andre Fleury did in Pittsburgh. Regardless, it’s too early to speculate, especially since the Seattle team hasn’t been formally approved.
  • After being scratched Thursday night, Chicago Blackhawks center Nick Schmaltz feels that he has learned his lesson after picking up just one assist in the last five games, according to the Chicago Sun-Times’ Mark Lazerus. “I don’t think I was playing as good as I can — especially in Vancouver, I didn’t think I had a very good game,” said Schmaltz. “Take it as a learning lesson and move on from it and make sure that I’m playing to stick in the lineup every night.”

Snapshots: Three Stars, Betting, Rasmussen

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The NHL has decided on their Three Stars for the most recent week of hockey, and leading the way is someone who is no stranger to individual accolades. Sidney Crosby is the first star, after recording seven points in three games including two highlight reel efforts against the Edmonton Oilers and Calgary Flames. Crosby continues to shine as he enters the back half of his career, and is well on his way to another point-per-game campaign.

The other two spots go to young Western Conference stars, with Mark Scheifele and Mikko Rantanen garnering second and third star respectively. Scheifele has developed into one of the very best two-way centers in the entire league, and will lead the Winnipeg Jets into action in Finland this week. Rantanen meanwhile is part of the hottest line in hockey for the Colorado Avalanche, and currently leads the league in points with 21 through his first 12 games.

  • The NHL has announced a partnership with MGM Resorts to enter the world of sports betting, giving the organization use of their official branding and trademarks. Commissioner Gary Bettman spoke very positively about the development as he announced it, and also explained that player tracking systems will be ready to implement next season. The league expects the partnership to first and foremost help with fan engagement, though it also will provide a new revenue stream.
  • Though it had been expected, head coach Jeff Blashill of the Detroit Red Wings confirmed that Michael Rasmussen will remain with the team for the time being. Rasmussen has currently played nine games in the NHL this season, meaning his next test will burn the first year of his entry-level contract. Blashill spoke highly of his young rookie, and explained that he’ll be moved back to center as they deal with injuries to some of their other options.

Agent Mike Liut Set To Bury The “Bridge Deal” This Off-Season

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For some time now, the landscape of NHL contracts has been changing, trending away from short and relatively inexpensive contracts for young restricted free agents. These “bridge deals” had long been used by teams to keep promising young talent on a reasonable price tag after their entry-level contract expired. While teams have been complicit in the movement away from bridge deals, players have simply begun to produce at a much higher level far sooner than in the past and, in turn, agents have demanded more term and salary than they ever had the leverage to command previously. The bridge deal is not yet extinct, but players and their representatives are having a much easier time landing expensive, long-term deals as early as possible in recent years.

While the beginning of the end for affordable youth can be traced back to superstars like Sidney Crosby and Alex Ovechkin – whose cap hits now look like bargains some years later – it is within the last few years that young players of a lesser caliber than the all-world exception have been able to land similar pacts. The architect of multiple recent deals of great length and value has been Mike Liut of Octagon Sports. A former NHLer himself, Liut is the director of Octagon’s hockey division. Forbes reports that Liut manages 22 clients and over $325MM in player salary. His efforts to eliminate the bridge deal have played no small part in that impressive total. Liut negotiated the eight-year, $60MM contract signed by the St. Louis Blues’ Vladimir Tarasenko back in 2015, when Tarasenko had less than 200 NHL games to his credit. He then put together the eight-year, $49MM contract of the Winnipeg Jets’ Mark Scheifele in 2016, before he became the point-per-game player he is today. However, the crown jewel of Liut’s collection has to be the massive eight-year, $68MM contract belonging to the Edmonton Oilers’ Leon Draisaitl. Signed last year, Draisaitl’s deal carries an $8.5MM cap hit that is among the top fifteen players in the league. Yet, Liut somehow landed Draisaitl that deal after just two and half seasons, only one of which was truly impressive.

Now, Liut has a chance at a repeat performance of the Draisaitl deal not once, not twice, not even thrice, but with four different prominent players this off-season. Liut counts Patrik Laine, Mikko Rantanen, Brock Boeser, and Jake Guentzel among his clients and each of those four is set to have their entry-level contract expire this off-season. Winnipeg’s Laine has finished in the top ten in goal scoring in each of his first two seasons and was second only to Ovechkin for the league lead last year. Colorado’s Rantanen recorded 84 points in 81 games last year and currently shares the NHL lead in points and assists. Vancouver’s Boeser finished second in Calder Trophy voting last year and led the Canucks in scoring. Pittsburgh’s Guentzel is a Stanley Cup champion and a proven clutch scorer. Liut has shown an ability to bypass the bridge deal before and has an excellent chance at landing each of these players an expensive long-term deal. Other restricted free agents like Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, and Sebastian Aho are also certain to land similar deals. As such, in an off-season with an abnormal amount of high-profile RFA’s, each one could end up with an expensive, long-term extension. The effect, as Liut hopes, that the bridge deal dies as a result.

Snapshots: Foster, Aho, Rantanen

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One of the legendary moments from the 2017-18 season aside from the Vegas Golden Knights setting a new standard for expansion franchises, and Alex Ovechkin finally hoisting the cup above his head (and, alternately hoisting his head above the cup), was made on an otherwise unexceptional night in Chicago. With their regular goaltenders injured, the Chicago Blackhawks started minor league netminder Collin Delia for the first time in his career. Everything was set up for a normal debut by a budding prospect, but went awry in the third period.

In came Scott Foster, emergency goaltender extraordinaire, signed to an amateur tryout deal in order to fill in. Foster entered with 14 minutes remaining in the third period and made seven stops to secure the win for the Blackhawks. The former Western Michigan University backup goaltender became an instant folk hero in his local recreational league, and now has even more to tell his friends when they gather at the pub. The Blackhawks announced that Foster will serve as the third goaltender at optional skates this season, continuing to add more pages to the brief chapter of his NHL life.

  • There’s not much about the Carolina Hurricanes attack that doesn’t run through Sebastian Aho, the third-year forward with 14 points in his first nine games. Aho recorded 65 last season to lead the Hurricanes, and after Jeff Skinner and Elias Lindholm were jettisoned this summer there’s little reason to think he won’t lead them for years to come. That’s what owner Tom Dundon believes, and what he told Craig Custance of The Athletic (subscription required). Dundon was effusive in his praise of Aho’s game, and all but guaranteed that the Finnish forward would be in Carolina for a long time: “He’s going to play here. This is where he’s going to play. We’ll figure it out.” Aho is in the final season of his entry-level contract, and will be looking for a huge raise on his next deal. Custance suggests that the 21-year old is watching the William Nylander negotiation closely, as it could be a direct comparable for his own next summer.
  • Speaking of big second contracts, Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet notes that Mike Liut, the agent for both Mikko Rantanen and Patrik Laine, likes to wait until after his clients’ third season to sign their next big deal, instead of looking for an early extension. He’s done that with Vladimir Tarasenko, Rasmus Ristolainen and Leon Draisaitl, and Friedman implies that a similar path might be taken by Rantanen and Laine. The former is off to an incredible start in Colorado, while Laine is bound to take off at any moment.

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