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Looking At Claude Giroux’s Impending Free Agency

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With the Florida Panthers now swept out of the Stanley Cup Playoffs, many questions will arise this offseason about the future of this year’s Presidents’ Trophy winners. One of those questions will be the future of forward Claude Giroux, who the Panthers acquired at the Trade Deadline. The longtime captain of the Philadelphia Flyers was moved for what many viewed as an underwhelming return, and despite Florida’s early elimination, Giroux performed with renewed vigor on a better team. He had eight points in 10 playoff games but piled up assists in the regular season, notching 20 in 18 games with the Panthers. He still managed 42 points in 57 games with the Flyers prior to the trade on a massively struggling team, too. His eight-year extension that kicked in prior to 2014-15 is now expiring, and Giroux could hit unrestricted free agency for the first time in his 15-year career.

Giroux has already stated his desire to return to South Florida if the opportunity arises. However, with the worst year of the Keith Yandle buyout hitting the Panthers next season, the team has just under $4MM in projected cap space for the 2022-23 season, according to CapFriendly. That’s already an impossible number to sign Giroux unless he takes a serious old-man discount, but the team also has a handful of roster spots to fill on both forward and defense. The team could likely opt to trade Patric Hornqvist (with a limited no-trade clause) and the final year of his $5.3MM cap hit, though, which could seriously open the door for a Giroux return.

If Giroux can’t work out a return to the Panthers organization, though, teams will come prepared with serious offers for his services. The 34-year-old can still be counted on for at least 20 goals and 65/70 points in a full season, and he remains a very good defensive presence and faceoff man. Giroux is still boasting a streak of five seasons above a 55 percent mark in the faceoff circle, and although his skill set is now best used on the wing, he’s still valuable as a faceoff specialist. It’s hard to imagine Giroux receiving less than $6MM or $7MM, although a four-year term is likely an extreme maximum for Giroux at this point.

His hometown Ottawa Senators have been constantly linked to Giroux over the past few years, and the team hasn’t been quiet about their desire to improve this offseason drastically. With the team boasting nearly $25MM in cap space this offseason, they have the room and then some to make that sort of acquisition.

Is a return to the Flyers in the cards? It’s doubtful. Giroux hasn’t made a Stanley Cup Final in 12 years and he doesn’t have a ring. It’s that fact that makes it seem like a discount to stay in a team on the rise in Florida would make the most sense for Giroux. However, if the Senators play their cards right and their prospects develop properly, they could be in a position to win Cups by the end of a Giroux contract as well. Other teams in contending positions may not have the cap space to afford Giroux’s services, but it’s much too early to eliminate that scenario.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Joe Thornton Undecided About His Playing Future

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With the Panthers being eliminated earlier this week, the speculation about Joe Thornton’s playing future has already started.  Speaking with reporters today including NHL.com’s Alain Poupart, the veteran indicated that it’s too early to know if he’ll return for a 25th NHL season:

I haven’t put any thought into it at all right now. I think it’s still so quick. I wasn’t expecting that. It took me by surprise, so I’m sure I’ll talk with the family and see what our plan is next. I haven’t decided if I’m going to play or not, but we’ll talk and see how everybody’s feeling about it. We’ll see.

The 43-year-old signed with Florida early in free agency last summer but had a very limited role throughout the season when he was healthy enough to play.  He missed 20 games due to injuries and was a scratch for another 28, resulting in a career-low 34 appearances where he managed just five goals and five assists while averaging just 11:09 per game, also a career-low.  Thornton’s usage was even more limited in the playoffs as he played just once – the last game of the Tampa Bay series.

While Thornton is far from the All-Star player he was in his prime, he has a reputation for being a strong positive presence in the dressing room which likely played a role in Florida signing him last summer.  It’s also worth noting that he’s within striking distance of the all-time games played record set by long-time teammate Patrick Marleau; Thornton is 65 appearances away from equaling that mark.  A fully healthy season in 2022-23 could give him a realistic shot at setting the new standard.

At this point of his career, Thornton is going to be limited to a contract that’s basically at or around the minimum salary of $750K and he has signed minimum-salary deals the last two years.  Accordingly, there’s no real rush for him to make a decision; the types of offers he might have a shot at early in free agency will still be there at any other point of the offseason.  While many may want to know what’s next for Thornton, that decision may not be coming for a while.

Examining Sergei Bobrovsky’s Future

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When a team is eliminated from the postseason, and especially when it is four straight games, the entire organization goes under the magnifying glass. That’s exactly what has happened for the Florida Panthers, after bowing out quietly against the Tampa Bay Lightning in the second round. The Panthers scored just three goals in four games and were shut out completely in the deciding match.

Suddenly, the Presidents’ Trophy-winning squad went from the elation of advancing in the playoffs for the first time since 1996, to a team judged as a huge disappointment. Things like interim head coach Andrew Brunette’s future, which seemed so clear just a few weeks ago, have immediately come into question.

The same could be said about Sergei Bobrovsky, the veteran netminder with a checkered (if not downright bad) history in the playoffs. No team can blame their goaltender when they score just three goals in a four-game stretch but given his contract, which extends through 2025-26 and carries a $10MM cap hit, Bobrovsky was still expected to do more than the .911 save percentage he posted in the playoffs. It doesn’t ever help to be directly compared to Andrei Vasilevskiy at the other end of the rink, but given that he makes more money than the Tampa Bay netminder, some obviously will.

It’s not really about whether Bobrovsky was to blame, though. Nothing can change that fact, and the Panthers still have the core of a Stanley Cup contender in place. The question now is whether the 33-year-old goaltender will be the one playing behind them next season, especially given the presence of top prospect Spencer Knight.

Because the team selected Knight 13th overall in 2019, Bobrovsky’s name has been continuously thrust into trade speculation. But now with Knight pushing for more playing time and Bobrovsky’s game still not back to the Vezina-winning level he found in Columbus, there’s good reason for that speculation. Elliotte Friedman even spoke about how the Panthers did some work in that regard this year in the latest 32 Thoughts podcast for Sportsnet:

I suspect that they tried hard to trade him this year, or at least lay the groundwork to do it. I don’t know if it’s possible. I’ve heard they really worked on it. They really tried to see if it was possible. 

Even if the Panthers worked hard, a trade isn’t really even up to them. Bobrovsky holds a full no-movement clause through the end of 2023-24. At that point, it would change to a 16-team no-trade list, meaning the team could potentially get out of the last two years. As of right now, anything would have to go through the veteran netminder.

Notably, the Panthers have quite a few pending free agents and a buyout penalty that jumps to more than $6.5MM for the 2022-23 season. Combine that penalty with the rising salaries of players like Aleksander Barkov and Carter Verhaeghe, and you have a team that is almost already right up against the cap ceiling for next season. Moving Bobrovsky would obviously alleviate that problem, though there is certainly no guarantee the team would actually improve.

While Knight is still one of the top young goaltending prospects in the world, it is not like he has absolutely dominated to this point. The 21-year-old had a .908 save percentage in 32 NHL games this season, and a .905 in 11 minor league appearances. While there isn’t much doubt that he should become a legitimate NHL starter in time, the Panthers want to contend now with the in-their-prime core they have built.

This all leads to a very difficult summer for general manager Bill Zito and his front office, who has to make some tough decisions about the direction of the franchise.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Atlantic Notes: St. Louis, Giroux, Senators

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The Montreal Canadiens made waves earlier this season when the most storied franchise in NHL history replaced a head coach that had just guided them to their first Stanley Cup Final appearance in nearly 30 years with someone who had no professional coaching experience to speak of. However, under Laval native Martin St. Louis, the Canadiens, despite being battered and bruised, looked rejuvenated and carried much more of the same energy that had taken them through four rounds in 2021.

Now, it appears that St. Louis has done enough to impress the team’s front office and guide them through what’s likely to be a tumultuous next few seasons in terms of roster construction. TSN’s Darren Dreger reports that he expects the Canadiens to announce an extension for St. Louis “in the near future”, although there’s no timeline given for this. The Canadiens finished the season 14-19-4 under St. Louis, a marked improvement over the team’s abysmal 8-30-7 record under Ducharme.

  • After being swept out of the Second Round by the Tampa Bay Lightning, Claude Giroux expressed interest today in returning to the Presidents’ Trophy-winning Florida Panthers. How the team manages to make that work under the salary cap, though, is a gigantic mystery. While the Panthers don’t have any significant pieces to re-sign aside from Giroux and Mason Marchment, the team is greatly restricted in salary space next year by the combined $6.575MM cap hit from the Keith Yandle and Scott Darling buyouts. With that, the team will have just $4MM in cap space this offseason with depth roster spots to fill. Giroux would need to take a steeply discounted deal, which could be unlikely given the much more rich offers he’ll receive elsewhere. Giroux had 23 points in 18 games down the stretch for the Panthers in the regular season and eight points in 10 playoff games.
  • The Ottawa Senators appear to be ready to take aggressive steps in exiting their rebuild, with general manager Pierre Dorion saying that the team’s seventh overall pick at the 2022 NHL Draft is on the table for trade. Dorion also said that he’s focused on acquiring a top-four defenseman or a high-end forward, if possible. While the Senators do have a strong pool to deal from, they’re also a core that has proven very little with the team staying stagnant in the standings this season. With the team sitting on over $20MM worth of cap space again this offseason, though, they have the roster flexibility to make moves.

Mason Marchment To Miss Next Two Games

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  • Panthers winger Mason Marchment is doubtful to play in the next two games of their series against Tampa Bay, relays David Wilson of the Miami Herald. He has now missed the last four games with a lower-body injury and with Florida scuffling in the early going of this round, his secondary scoring and physicality are certainly being missed.  Meanwhile, interim head coach Andrew Brunette clarified that Anton Lundell wasn’t injured on Thursday but was merely benched after just over four minutes of ice time.

2022 Jack Adams Finalists Announced

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The NHL continues to release the finalists for their major regular season award, this time naming the three men that are in contention for the Jack Adams Award, presented to the coach who has “contributed the most to his team’s success” and voted on by the NHL Broadcasters Association. Last year’s winner was Rod Brind’Amour of the Carolina Hurricanes, but we’ll have a new name engraved this season.

The finalists for the 2021-22 season are Andrew Brunette of the Florida Panthers, Gerard Gallant of the New York Rangers, and Darryl Sutter of the Calgary Flames.

Brunette could win the award without actually even having any job security, as he is still technically only an interim head coach. Taking over from Joel Quenneville, when the Panthers were in first place, he didn’t miss a beat and took the team to an incredible 51-18-6 record under his watch, winning the Presidents’ Trophy. A huge number of Florida players experienced career-best seasons under the rookie head coach, as his high-flying style led to almost unstoppable offensive pressure.

Often, this award goes to the coach who takes a team to the largest gap between expectation and result. That might be the case for Gallant, whose young Rangers were expected to challenge for the playoffs but have become so much more than that. With a 52-24-6 record on the year, New York finished eighth in the entire NHL, their best season since 2014-15. It shouldn’t surprise anyone at this point that Gallant can get outstanding results out of an overlooked roster, after taking the Vegas Golden Knights all the way to the Stanley Cup Final in their inaugural season. Even in that year–when Gallant won the Jack Adams–the Golden Knights had a worse winning percentage than these Rangers.

For all the success that Sutter has had behind the bench, this trophy has eluded him over the years. The two-time Stanley Cup-winning coach has nearly 800 total wins under his belt but has only ever been a finalist for the award once before, way back in 2004 during his first go-round in Calgary. The Flames experienced a huge turnaround under his watch, going from a .491 winning percentage last season, to a .677 and first place in the division this year. Despite having some high-flying offensive talent, it was the buy-in on the defensive end that Sutter is so known for, and resulted in the Flames allowing just 206 goals against, third best in the league.

Tomorrow, the league will continue their announcements with the three finalists for the King Clancy Memorial Trophy.

Ben Chiarot Avoids Suspension, Earns Fine

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The Florida Panthers will still have Ben Chiarot available for their next game, after the Department of Player Safety has decided his headbutt on Tampa Bay Lightning forward Ross Colton will earn a fine, instead of a suspension. Chiarot has been fined $5,000 for the incident.

When the playoffs began, it seemed unlikely that there would be two head-butting incidents in the first handful of games but that is exactly what has happened after Darnell Nurse was suspended in the Edmonton Oilers’ first-round series. While there are some comparisons between the two plays, it seemed clear that Chiarot’s was of a lesser degree. Partway through the second period, he and Colton came together after a whistle, and the Panthers’ defenseman pushed his helmet into his opponent’s visor.

The league has obviously deemed that unacceptable but ruled it did not rise to the level of a suspension. Still, Chiarot will now be under the microscope as the Panthers try to continue their postseason run, and could receive further discipline should he be involved in any other incidents like this.

2022 Selke Trophy Finalists Announced

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The NHL has announced the finalists for yet another of its end-of-year awards, the Frank J. Selke Trophy. Always a hotly-contested and highly-debated award, the Selke Trophy is voted on by the Professional Hockey Writers Association on the basis of “the forward who best excels in the defensive aspects of the game.”

This year’s finalists are Aleksander Barkov of the Florida Panthers, Elias Lindholm of the Calgary Flames, and Patrice Bergeron of the Boston Bruins.

Barkov took home the award last season after previous top-five finishes and is one of the best two-way players in the league. His offensive numbers took another step forward this season, while his defensive play stayed quite high. Paired at times with rookie Anton Lundell on the penalty kill (a player who might find himself on the Selke ballot eventually), Barkov averaged more than two minutes of short-handed time a night for the Panthers, and was once again one of the most dominant faceoff men in the NHL. His 56.9% win percentage in the dot was the best of his career and continued a five-year trend of improvement in that area.

Lindholm, meanwhile, is a Selke finalist for the first time after anchoring the best even-strength line in the NHL this season. When he was on the ice alongside Johnny Gaudreau and Matthew Tkachuk, the Flames were nearly unstoppable, scoring more than twice as often as the opponents. The trio finished 1-2-3 in +/- rating, with Lindholm dragging his career number back into the black with a +61. While his linemates have a lot of impact on that overall success, the 27-year-old came into his own as a shutdown center, and also logged more short-handed ice time than any other Flames forward.

It always comes back to Bergeron though, who is now a Selke finalist for the 11th season in a row. Now 36, some would have expected his game to take a step backward at some point, but that wasn’t this season. The Bruins captain had one of the (if not the) best defensive seasons of his career, completely smothering the opponent whenever he was on the ice. Winning more than 60% of his draws for the fifth time in his career, dominating possession even more than in previous years, and actually setting a career-high with 78 hits, Bergeron will be tough to beat again this season.

With four Selke wins in the past, Bergeron has a chance to pass Bob Gainey and become the all-time leader with five trophies should he take it home this year. Barkov could become just the tenth player to win more than one.

Mason Marchment Unlikely To Be Available For Start Of Tampa Bay Series

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  • Panthers winger Mason Marchment is unlikely to be available for the start of their series-opener against Tampa Bay, relays David Wilson of the Miami Herald. The 26-year-old had a career year as a secondary scorer, notching 18 goals and 29 assists in just 54 games while also averaging two hits per game which made him a key part of Florida’s bottom six.  He missed the last two games with an unspecified injury and there’s no word on how much longer he might be out.  Meanwhile, interim head coach Andrew Brunette indicated that defensemen Aaron Ekblad and Ben Chiarot will be ready to start the season after being banged up in the final game of the Washington series.

Carter Verhaeghe A Game-Time Decision

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If the Florida Panthers are able to advance to the second round for the first time since 1996 (and only second time ever), Carter Verhaeghe might be the series MVP. The 26-year-old forward has ten points through the first five games, including five in the team’s come-from-behind game five victory. Unfortunately, with the Panthers looking to eliminate the Washington Capitals tonight, Verhaeghe may not be in the lineup. He’s a game-time decision according to head coach Andrew Brunette.

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