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Potential Compliance Buyout Candidates: Part II

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As the current Coronavirus crisis wears on, it seems more and more likely that the NHL will not return to action soon and when play resumes, it will almost certainly not be the full remaining regular season schedule. That lost revenue is expected to impact the 2020-21 salary cap, perhaps even keeping the current $81.5MM upper limit in place. Given that teams expected an increase, initially projected to be between $84-88.2MM, this stagnation could have a harsh impact on a number of clubs’ cap situations. As such, many expect that compliance buyouts will return in some form or fashion to ease that pain. These buyouts, which do not count against the salary cap, would allow for teams to open up space that they otherwise expected from a cap increase.

After taking a look at the first ten teams, we move on to the middle third of the NHL:

Detroit Red Wings: Justin Abdelkader

– When Abdelkader signed a seven-year extension with an AAV of $4.25MM following his career-best season in 2014-15, it was perceived to be a bargain at the time and few expected that it would turn out poorly. Yet, with three years still to go Abdelkader has failed to impress in each of the first four seasons, recording a total of just 78 points and consistently missing time due to injury. On a young rebuilding team, the 33-year-old forward’s slow, plodding game is not a fit and his salary is not commensurate to his role on the club. New GM Steve Yzerman wouldn’t hesitate to buy out the career Red Wing if given the opportunity.

Edmonton Oilers: James Neal

– Last summer’s swap of Neal for Milan Lucic was labeled as two teams exchanging bad contracts. However, Neal got off to a hot start and ended up with 19 goals and 31 points despite being limited to just 55 games due to injury. That being said, the 32-year-old forward, who was a -20 this season, is still probably the worst contract on the team. The likelihood of Neal playing up to his remaining $17.25MM over three years seems slim and the Oilers could use the cap space to add a younger, better winger. If Neal has earned the trust of the team, Kris Russell could be bought out before his final year at $4MM.

Florida Panthers: Sergei Bobrovsky

– Would the Panthers move on from Bobrovsky just one year after handing him a seven-year, $70MM deal? That could be the biggest question of the off-season if compliance buyouts become reality. The star goalie’s first season in Florida could not have gone worse as he posted a career-worst GAA and didn’t boast a shiny save percentage either. Expected to be the Cats’ savior in net, Bobrovsky was anything but. If they hesitate to cut ties with Bobrovsky and his play does not improve, he would undoubtedly become the worst contract in hockey. Though on the other hand, if Bobrovsky goes elsewhere and succeeds and Florida cannot find a suitable location, some would surely say that they didn’t give him enough of a chance.

Los Angeles Kings: Jonathan Quick

– The rebuilding Kings have been trying to move Quick for a couple of years now and it would be a surprise if they did not take advantage of a compliance buyout opportunity. A holdover contract from the days of yore, Quick’s ten-year, $58MM deal signed in 2012 remained a bargain for the first half of the term until Quick hit a wall last year. While his play rebounded this season, Quick is still not playing up to the all-world level that had become the norm. L.A. is still a ways away from contending and can make more use of extra cap space over the next three years than a goalie who is past his prime.

Minnesota Wild: Zach Parise

– The Wild and new GM Bill Guerin came awfully close to trading Parise at the deadline this season and in recent years players who have been rumored to be leaving Minnesota are always eventually dealt. However, the potential trade included the team taking back bad salaries to facilitate the movement of Parise’s remaining five years and $37.69MM. Although Parise showed a return to form somewhat over the past two years, he has never been able to replicate his numbers from earlier in career and the team has generally been unhappy with the results of their 13-year gamble. If the possibility to dump the 35-year-old Parise without any cap repercussions opened up, it would become a serious conversation. More interesting would be if the Wild also discuss Mats Zuccarello as a buyout candidate after he was a bust in the first of a five-year, $30MM deal.

Montreal Canadiens: Karl Alzner

– While there will be those that find some of the bigger names on Montreal as intriguing buyout candidates, Alzner seems like an obvious choice that will improve the roster without any risk of releasing a good player or upsetting team chemistry. Few players in recent history have had their team turn on them following a major contract as quickly as the Canadiens did with Alzner. After signing the physical defenseman as a top free agent in 2017, the Habs decided just a year later that he was not worthy of an NHL roster spot following a difficult first season. Alzner has played just 13 NHL games over the past two years, buried in the AHL for the remainder. With two years at $4.625MM remaining, Montreal would be happy to be completely rid of Alzner’s contract rather than receiving just minor saving from sending him to the minors instead.

Nashville Predators: Kyle Turris

– For a long time, Nashville GM David Poile was opposed to handing out expensive, long-term contracts. That policy served him well for quite a time, as the Predators ended up with a number of tremendous values on the roster. Since the team has started to move away from that practice, things have not gone so well. Turris is the poster boy for this statement. He signed a six-year, $36MM extension with Nashville not long after being acquired by the club early in the 2017-18 season and has never lived up to the expectations. His 54 total points over the past two years is less than the one-year total the season prior to his joining Nashville. Turris has become an expendable player, not only missing time due to injury but also as a healthy scratch. The team has been eager to move him and they likely wouldn’t hesitate to do so with a compliance buyout.

New Jersey Devils: Cory Schneider

– An overpaid, under-performing starting goalie is one thing; an overpaid, under-performing backup is another. It has been quite a time since Schneider was the top man in net in New Jersey and young Mackenzie Blackwood has now taken the reins. However, Schneider’s horrific numbers over the past two year suggest that he isn’t even capable of being an NHL backup at this point in his career. With two years remaining at $6MM, Schneider’s might be the worst goalie contract in the league and a rather obvious buyout candidate.

New York Islanders: Andrew Ladd

– Ladd, part of the infamous 2016 class of terrible free agent contracts, Ladd has never provided adequate value to the Islanders compared to his $5.5MM AAV. The team finally buried him in the AHL this season after recording just 71 points through his first three years. With the majority of their forwards signed to substantial long-term deals, there is almost no chance that Ladd can ever work his way back into the NHL mix for the Islanders. New York was ready to move him at the trade deadline and would be quick to buyout the final three years of his deal rather than continue to pay major money for him to play in the minors.

New York Rangers: Henrik Lundqvist

– While it would be a sad day for the Blueshirts and their fans, the reality is that Lundqvist is the best use of a compliance buyout on the team. New York was considering moving young Alexandar Georgiev at the deadline rather than continue to carry three goaltenders, as Igor Shesterkin looks like the starter of the future and King Henrik has become an immovable contract. However, the team would be far better off retaining both young goalies and moving on from Lundqvist, who at 38 years old had the worst season of his career and still has a season remaining at $8.5MM. That’s a hefty salary to pay the man who would be your third-string goalie next season if Georgiev is not moved. The Rangers have no shortage of options though if they cannot overcome the loyalty they feel toward Lundqvist. Defensemen Marc Staal, $5.7MM AAV, and Brendan Smith, $4.35MM AAV, have both outworn their welcomes in New York and would not be missed in the final years of their respective contracts.

Stay tuned for Part III coming soon.

Trade Rumors: Connor, Gostisbehere, Center Market

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With the Winnipeg Jets continuing to slide further and further from playoff contention this season, the team will have to begin entertaining trade offers. While impending free agents like Dmitry Kulikov, Luca Sbisa, and Gabriel Bourque could be the most likely trade casualties, Mike McIntyre of the Winnipeg Free Press writes that the team is receiving considerable interest in top line winger Kyle Connor. Normally, a player like Connor, who is skating more than 20 minutes per night and leading the team in goal scoring at the age of 23, would be untouchable. However, the Jets are deep up front and in desperate need of a new cornerstone on defense and the possibility of landing an elite young player or prospect who could fill that void may have them at least listening to offers for Connor. The division rival Colorado Avalanche are reportedly leading the hunt, with 2019 No. 4 overall pick Bowen Byram being the core piece that would head to the Jets. A young defenseman of Byram’s caliber would be a huge addition to the Winnipeg pipeline, but would not be able to play a top-pair role for a few years still to come. Is that enough to part with a player like Connor? McIntyre is skeptical and reiterates that in no way are the Jets shopping their young star. After all, they just signed Connor to a seven-year, $50MM extension back in September. However, given their disappointing season and bleak outlook on the blue line, it cannot be ruled out that the right price – Byram or otherwise – could entice the Jets to move Connor.

  • A difficult season for Philadelphia Flyers defenseman Shayne Gostisbehere continued not only in his last game, but in his last practice as well. Gostisbehere, who has missed 13 games this season due to injury and has struggled even when healthy, drew back into the Flyers’ lineup on Thursday night. The team proceeded to drop an embarrassing 5-0 loss to the New Jersey Devils, in which the pairing of Gostisbehere and Justin Braun were of little help. The Philadelphia Inquirer’s Ed Barkowitz recounts that Gostisbehere’s frustration boiled over in practice on Friday. The blue liner whiffed on a shot late in practice and responded by hurling his stick over the glass and storming off the ice. While Barkowitz makes no mention of any possible discipline for Gostisbehere as a result of this incident, there is a strong chance that he will take a seat for Saturday’s match-up against the Washington Capitals. While it may seem like Gostisbehere is wearing out his welcome in Philly with lacking results and now visible distress, head coach Alain Vigneault did acknowledge to Barkowitz that the team likely erred in rushing Gostisbehere back from his knee surgery rather than allowing him to serve a rehab stint in the AHL. But with the deed done, both sides have to live with the current situation. Or do they? Gostisbehere remains a hot name on the trade market and with the Flyers fighting for a playoff spot and needing help up front, a trade seems like a strong possibility. Gostisbehere is only 26 and has three years remaining on his current contract, but this seems like a situation where both sides might benefit from a fresh start. With each of their next five games coming against an Eastern Conference team currently in playoff position, a crucial stretch for the Flyers’ own postseason hopes, perhaps a Gostisbehere deal will come sooner rather than later.
  • The Flyers are one of a number of teams who could benefit from bringing in a center at the deadline. However, TSN’s Frank Seravalli points out that this is the weakest position in the current trade market. The top available option is Ottawa’s Jean-Gabriel Pageau, who some believe the team would rather re-sign than deal. Beyond that, the only other two centers on TSN’s Trade Bait List are Nashville’s Kyle Turris, and his remaining four years and $24MM, and Detroit’s veteran pivot Valtteri Filppula. Beyond that, Seravalli lists impending UFA’s Derek Grant of Anaheim and Nate Thompson of Montreal and younger players like San Jose’s Barclay Goodrow and Ottawa’s Chris Tierney as the top options. Once Pageau is off the board – or worse, if he isn’t traded at all – it is slim pickings down the middle on the trade market. Seravalli lists the Oilers, Capitals, and Jets as teams joining Philadelphia in the pursuit of a center, but not all of these teams will leave the deadline happy.

Poll: Can The Predators Make The Playoffs?

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Matt Duchene, the Nashville Predator’s blockbuster free agent addition of this past summer, remains very confident in his new team, despite how their season is going. Duchene, in the first season on a seven-year, $56MM contract, is one of a number of under-performing players on the Nashville roster. The team has not played up to expectations this year, which has already cost head coach Peter Laviolette his job and now threatens to cost the team a trip to the postseason. Yet, Duchene believes the team has what it takes to turn their season around and qualify. He told the media on Monday that he feels that Nashville is a playoff team and, to double down, he does not think they need to make a move ahead of the forthcoming NHL Trade Deadline.

It’s a mighty big prognostication from a player who has been part of the problem and not the solution for the Predators this year. Duchene is on pace for just 56 points this season, which would be among the worst years of his career, when he was supposed to be shine on a talented Nashville roster. He’s not alone; Filip Forsberg (59 points), Ryan Johansen (47), Viktor Arvidsson (40), Kyle Turris (36), and Mikael Granlund (30) are all on pace to finish well below what has come to be expected of them. On top of that, veteran starter Pekka Rinne and young backup Juuse Saros are both experiencing the worst campaigns of their careers. Nearly all of Nashville’s key pieces outside of Roman Josi have disappointed to this point in the season, leaving them in the basement of the Central Division and among the worst teams in the league in a number of categories.

Yet, maybe Duchene has a point. A closer look would imply that perhaps Nashville is more than their current last-place position in the Central Division. With substantial games in hand on Minnesota, Chicago, and Winnipeg, the Predators’ .543 points percentage before Monday night’s game is actually fourth-best in the division. Beyond that, while the Preds currently trail the Vegas Golden Knights by six points for the final wild card spot in the Western Conference, they are really just .005 points percentage points behind. Nashville actually seems to be well-positioned to compete for a spot. Also strange is the seeming lack of correlation between the number of underachieving core producers on the Predators and the actual state of their offense. At 3.30 goals for per game, the team is tied for seventh-best in the league in offense so far this season, even if only Josi is among the top scorers at his position.

With all that said, there is no hiding the fact that the Predators have been poor defensively and on special teams this season, their goaltending situation is shaky at best, and their best forwards have not risen to the occasion all year. Will the returns of Ryan Ellis and Colton Sissons be enough to boost the team? Can their struggling stars turn things around without help?

We already know how Duchene would vote, but what say you? Can the Predators make the playoffs?

[Mobile users click here to vote]

Nashville’s Austin Watson Moved From Healthy Scratch To First Line

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It has now been a week and a half since John Hynes replaced Peter Laviolette as the head coach of the Nashville Predators. In that time, it has been a mixed bag of results. Hynes lost his debut mere hours after his hire became official, but it came at the hands of the Boston Bruins, one of the league’s best teams. The Predators then scored a convincing win over the Chicago Blackhawks and a hard fought two points against the Winnipeg Jets. Just when it looked like the coaching change could be paying immediate dividends, Nashville dropped their past two games to the Edmonton Oilers and Anaheim Ducks.

Hynes has apparently decided that major lineup changes may be in order to get the team to play up to their expectations and he plans to begin those experiments on Saturday night against the Buffalo Sabres. After already demoting Viktor Arvidsson to the third line, Hynes is set to roll out another major lineup change. Austin Watson goes from healthy scratch for four of the five games of Hynes’ young tenure to the first line, joining Ryan Johansen and Calle Jarnkrok. He replaces Craig Smith, who is set to fall all the way to the fourth line with Kyle Turris and Colin Blackwell, with Yakov Trenin getting the healthy scratch due to Watson’s addition.

Hynes’ thinking with this move may not be as focused on offense as it is on defense. In fact, while many Nashville forwards have been disappointing on an individual basis this season, the team is tied for eighth in the NHL in goals for per game. The same can’t be said for goals against, where the Predators are ranked 24th. Nashville simply has not been a difficult team to play against this season and the loss of Colton Sissons has only exasperated that fact. There has been an obvious lack of physical response and energy from the forward group many nights. As they struggle to get a more balanced, two-way effort out of their forwards, Hynes may be hoping that a refreshed Watson, who leads the team in hits by a wide margin despite sitting six games (and Sissons is in second) can add some punch to the top line. Meanwhile, Smith can bring some experience and scoring threat to the fourth line, where maybe he can even get Turris re-energized.

Perhaps more important than strategy is that this moves by Hynes sends a message that no one’s role is safe under the new coach. The effort has to improve and no one is irreplaceable if they don’t perform. If the team continues to lose, don’t be surprised to see GM David Poile send the same message to his roster by the trade deadline.

Injury Notes: Kulikov, Keith, Granlund

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As if the Winnipeg Jets needed any more concerns on the blue line, yet the team’s short-handed defense corps was dealt another blow on Tuesday. Head coach Paul Maurice announced that Dmitry Kulikov has suffered an upper-body injury that is expected to leave him sidelined for upwards of two months. Maurice expects the veteran defender to return after the All-Star break in late January. Kulikov suffered the injury, speculated to be related to his left arm, on Friday night and did not play Saturday. However, there was hope that he would return to the lineup shortly, but that will not be the case. Kulikov, 29, had been enjoying a bit of a career resurgence early this year after dealing with injuries in each of this past three seasons. The former Panthers standout is third among Jets starting defensemen in time on ice and first in Corsi For, while leading the entire team in blocked shots. Personally, Kulikov was also on pace for the highest point total of his stint in Winnipeg. However, it now appears that it could be more of the same for the physical, but fragile rearguard. With Nathan Beaulieu already injured and the team still coping with the absences of Dustin Byfuglien, Jacob Trouba, Tyler Myers, and Ben Chiarot, Kulikov’s loss is a major blow for the Jets. Winnipeg has held their own to this point in the season, but one has to wonder when their luck will run out considering their depleted blue line.

  • The Chicago Blackhawks are another team dealing with a slew of injuries. So much so in fact that they were forced to ice only eleven forwards and six defensemen on Monday night after a roster full of short-term injuries and a sick goalie necessitated the call-up of AHL keeper Kevin Lankinen without enough room to make any other additions. While Robin Lehner is back on his feet, one of those other injured players is going to be out for a while longer. Blackhawks beat writer Carter Baum reports that top pair defenseman Duncan Keith is expected to miss at least another two games with a lingering groin injury. Keith will not travel with the team on their two-game road trip, extending what has already been a two-game absence. Groin injuries tend to stick around, so Keith could remain sidelined beyond the next two games and could also deal with the issue throughout the season. It’s a difficult situation for Chicago, who desperately needs their ice time leader and defensive mainstay to be active as much as possible if they wish to push for a playoff spot this season.
  • Kyle Turris is back in the lineup for the Nashville Predators, but not because head coach Peter Laviolette has changed his mind about the under-performing veteran. Instead, Turris has drawn in to replace Mikael Granlund. The Predators announced just prior to their game on Tuesday night that Granlund would not be in the lineup and is considered day-to-day with an undisclosed lower-body injury. Not much is known about Granlund’s status as of yet, but an extended absence could very well cost him his spot as a top-six forward for the team. Granlund has just 11 points in 26 games, only two more points than Turris has in 19 games. Granlund has been a disappointment since coming over from Minnesota last season, but even if Nashville has no intention of re-signing him, the impending free agent has ample incentive to get healthy and try to find his way back to an elite level of play.

 

Central Notes: Turris, Johnson, Crawford, Jets

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Although he has sat for six straight games and has played a very minor role this season, Predators center Kyle Turris has not yet asked for a trade, GM David Poile told reporters including Paul Skrbina of The Tennessean.   At the time he was acquired (signing a six-year, $36MM extension in the process), Turris was expected to slot in on the second line.  However, while he did well in 2017-18, he underachieved a year ago which led them to bring in Matt Duchene (who was a part of the same three-team trade in 2017) over the summer.

Since then, Turris has largely been banished to the fourth line with head coach Peter Laviolette showing no inclination to trying him on the wing.  Instead, recent recalls Mathieu Olivier and Daniel Carr have been playing ahead of him.  With four years left on his deal after this one, it’s unlikely that there would be a taker for him anyway but for now, Turris hasn’t asked the Predators to search for a new home for him.

Elsewhere in the Central:

  • On top of losing winger Colin Wilson to a long-term injury that will require surgery, the Avalanche will also be without Erik Johnson for a little while as Mike Chambers of the Denver Post reports that the defenseman is out week-to-week with an upper-body injury. Johnson is no stranger to missing time due to injuries as he has missed 20 or more games in three of the last five seasons.  Colorado has had a plethora of injuries already this season and now they’ll have to make do without one of their top blueliners for a while.
  • The Blackhawks announced (Twitter link) that assistant coach Marc Crawford will be away from the team while they investigate claims made by former NHL forward Sean Avery regarding their time with Los Angeles. The team won’t be making any further comment until their review is completed.
  • Winnipeg winger Mason Appleton has missed the past five weeks due to a foot injury sustained in advance of the Heritage Classic but it appears that he’s nearing a return. Mitchell Clinton of the Jets’ team website notes that Appleton could participate in the morning skate on Tuesday and that he’ll take place in a couple of full practices after that before being assessed for clearance to return.  That could have him on track to play this weekend against Anaheim.  Meanwhile, winger Gabriel Bourque is a little further behind in his recovery; head coach Paul Maurice indicated that he’s about a week away from returning from the lower-body injury sustained early last month.

Nashville Predators To Scratch Kyle Turris Again

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The Nashville Predators are one of a handful of teams in the NHL that were expected to be Stanley Cup contenders this season but are struggling to even string two wins together. The team is now on a five-game losing streak that includes blowout losses against the Colorado Avalanche (9-4) and Chicago Blackhawks (7-2), both division rivals ahead of them in the standings.

Just like the other teams making changes to try and spark their clubs, the Predators decided to make Kyle Turris and his $6MM cap hit a healthy scratch on Tuesday against the Winnipeg Jets. Turris will sit out again tonight when the Predators take on the Vancouver Canucks for the second time in four games, with Mathieu Olivier staying in the lineup on the fourth line.

It was Turris who was labeled as a potential difference maker for the Predators when they acquired him just two years ago. Nashville GM David Poile got involved in a three-way trade that saw Matt Duchene go from Colorado to Ottawa, flipping young defenseman Samuel Girard and forward prospect Vladislav Kamenev to the Avalanche in the process. Turris immediately signed a six-year, $36MM contract extension with the Predators and was set to become the team’s long-term answer in the middle of their second line.

Turris had after all just posted a 27-goal campaign with the Senators and was off to a quick start in the 2017-18 season. After arriving in Nashville things went well for a while—the veteran center had 17 points in his first 17 games as a Predator—but by the time the playoffs rolled around his ice time had already been reduced. Turris averaged fewer than 16 minutes a night in the 2018 postseason, a sign of things to come.

Last season was an absolute disaster, with just seven goals and 23 points to his name in an injury-shortened campaign. This season even when he does play, Turris’ ice time has been extremely limited and his responsibility almost completely removed.

Who has filled that second-line center role that Turris was penciled into when he arrived? Well it’s none other than Duchene, who arrived in Nashville through free agency less than two years after the Predators were involved in that three-way trade. Duchene was given a huge contract in the summer to be the running mate down the middle for Ryan Johansen, as Poile and head coach Peter Laviolette decided that Turris wasn’t cutting it.

Scratching such a hefty contract for two straight games is a clear sign that the Predators are ready to move on. Turris’ name has been out there in trade speculation for some time, but getting any sort of value back at this point seems impossible for Nashville. With four more years (after this one) at a $6MM cap hit, Turris is just too expensive for most teams to take on, especially not knowing exactly what he can offer them right now.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Evening Notes: Turris, Bruins’ Forwards, Gaudette

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Despite rumors earlier in the week that the Nashville Predators would be willing to move center Kyle Turris in a trade, but his contract (five years at $6MM AAV) will be a major stumbling block for the team, writes the Hockey News’ Lyle Richardson.

After an impressive performance at the World Championships, the Predators were hoping that Turris would have a bounce-back season after a seven-goal, 23-point performance last year. Unfortunately, when Nashville added center Matt Duchene in free agency, it moved all the centers down in the order with Nick Bonino taking the No. 3 center role and Turris sliding down to the fourth line.

The only positive point is that Turris is faring well this season despite the limited minutes as he has two goals and five points in seven games, which could make him a tradeable commodity, assuming Nashville might be willing to retain some salary.

  • NBC Sports’ Joe Haggerty writes that the Boston Bruins need to be aggressive with their struggles beyond the first line. Boston top line of Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand and David Pastrnak have been terrific. However, no forward outside of fourth-liner Sean Kuraly have more than one point so far this season. While head coach Bruce Cassidy said he will rely on his players to find their games, the scribe writes that it might be time to trade for some cheap top-six options, including Edmonton’s Jesse Puljujarvi and New York Islanders’ Joshua Ho-Sang with the idea of buying low and letting them develop in top roles.
  • The Province’s Ben Kuzma writes that the Vancouver Canucks might need to make a decision on what they intend to do with center Adam Gaudette. The 23-year-old impressed head coach Travis Green in training camp, which earned him a spot on the team. However, after only appearing in three games so far this season, the scribe wonders whether the team might have to decide on a what role to give to the young center. The team could move him permanently to the third line and slide Brandon Sutter to the wing, or maybe it would be better off giving him top-line minutes with the Utica Comets of the AHL.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Nashville Predators

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Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2019-20 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Nashville Predators

Current Cap Hit: $80,165,476 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

D Dante Fabbro (two years, $925K)
F Rem Pitlick (one year, $925K)
F Eeli Tolvanen (two years, $894K)

Potential Bonuses

Tolvanen: $2.85MM
Fabbro: $850K

The team has a few players with entry-level contracts who could make an immediate impact. Fabbro is the obvious one, especially after the team traded away P.K. Subban to New Jersey in a cap-saving move. Fabbro, the team’s first-round pick in 2016, finally signed in late March after three seasons at Boston University, playing in four regular season games, followed by six playoff games, combining for one goal and two points in amongst those 10 games. Now with Subban gone, the team has to hope that Fabbro will be ready to immediately take over the open top-four spot in the team’s defense. If not the team could have some issues at that spot. The team also inked Pitlick, the team’s third-rounder in 2016, after three years at the University of Minnesota. After tallying 47 goals in three years, the team hopes that Pitlick can make his mark on the team immediately.

Tolvanen, who dominated in the KHL at 18 years of age, failed to make the Predators team last year and spent most of his season with the Milwaukee Admirals in the AHL, scoring 15 goals and 35 points in 58 games and will try to force his way into the Predators lineup this year with a good training camp.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F Mikael Granlund ($5.75MM, UFA)
F Craig Smith ($4.25MM, UFA)
D Roman Josi ($4MM, UFA)
D Dan Hamhuis ($1.25MM, UFA)
F Austin Watson ($1.1MM, UFA)
F Rocco Grimaldi ($1MM, UFA)
F Miikka Salomaki ($750K, UFA)
F Daniel Carr ($700K, UFA)
D Matt Irwin ($675K, UFA)
D Yannick Weber ($675K, UFA)
F Frederick Gaudreau ($667K, UFA)

The most well documented story is the Predators’ desire to lock up Josi to a long-term deal. The 29-year-old has proven to be an excellent defensive blueliner, but has also shown off quite a bit of offense, putting up 40 or more points for the past six seasons, including a 56-point performance last year. Josi has indicated that he wants to stay in Nashville, but evidently is waiting to see how the restricted free agent market pans out before signing any deal.

With significant cap issues coming up over the next few years, the Predators will have to make key decisions on what they want to do with Granlund and Smith. Nashville acquired Granlund at the trade deadline last year, swapping a younger Kevin Fiala for the 27-year-old, who will be a free agent at the end of the season. Granlund, who scored 47 goals in his two previous seasons, stepped back last year, scoring just 16 goals last season and only one of those in 16 games with Nashville. If Granlund can return to his 25-goal ways, the Predators are likely to find a way to keep him in the future, but another poor season could end their relationship early. Smith is a different situation. He’s been a 20-goal scorer for five of his last six seasons, but will be 31 when he signs his next deal. The question is whether the team wants to lock him up when he’s on the wrong side of 30.

Most of the other players listed here are depth options, with a number of bottom-pairing forwards and defensemen.

Two Years Remaining

G Pekka Rinne ($5MM, UFA)
F Nick Bonino ($4.1MM, UFA)
G Juuse Saros ($1.5MM, UFA)
D Steven Santini ($1.42MM, RFA)

The next two years could be the final two for Rinne, who will be 38 at that time. The veteran goaltender and Vezina Trophy winner put up another impressive season last year with a 30-19-4 record and a .918 save percentage. He will likely carry the load for the next two years, but Saros, the team’s goaltender of the future, will likely see more and more games before taking over as the Predators’ No. 1 goaltender in 2021-22. Saros played 31 games last season and while posting a 2.62 GAA, he did sport a .915 save percentage and should eventually get an extension.

Bonino was brought in from Pittsburgh to be the team’s third-string center and jumpstart the team’s bottom-six. He has done that, but also has found himself dropped down to the fourth line in the meantime and at $4.1MM, that’s a lot of money to be paying a bottom-line player. The only long-term hope, is that room is made so that Bonino, who posted 17 goals and 35 points last season, can return to his third-line role eventually.

Three Years Remaining

F Filip Forsberg ($6MM, UFA)
D Mattias Ekholm ($3.75MM, UFA)
F Calle Jarnkrok ($2MM, UFA)

The team has a solid bargain going with Forsberg making just $6MM per season. The Predators have gotten impressive production out of the winger, who posted 28 goals and 50 points last season (surprisingly his worst season of his career so far) and there is still hope that the 25-year-old may take his game up another notch and return to his 30-goal, 60-point mark that he has reached twice in his career or even take his game even further. However, the skilled winger remains an impressive player at a reasonable price for the next three years.

Ekholm may be the biggest bargain of the lot as the 29-year-old is one of the most underrated players in the league, showing off great defensive skill as well as posting 40 points for the first time in his career last year. Ekholm scored eight goals and 44 points last year and at under $4MM, the team has a cheap top-four player for quite a few years to come. Jarnkrok also gives the team a discounted player as the depth winger is a solid value at just $2MM per year.

Four Or More Years Remaining

F Matt Duchene ($8MM through 2025-26)
F Ryan Johansen ($8MM through 2024-25)
D Ryan Ellis ($6.25MM through 2026-27)
F Kyle Turris ($6MM through 2023-24)
F Viktor Arvidsson ($4.25MM through 2023-24)
F Colton Sissons ($2.86MM through 2025-26)

The team had to finally pay out to get themselves the No. 2 center that they desired. They thought they did that a few years ago when the traded for Turris and extended him, but so far that match hasn’t been what the team hoped for. However, after moving out Subban, the team had enough cap room to replace him on the roster with their biggest need, which will be filled by Duchene, who should be the perfect top-six center the team has coveted for year. Duchene is coming off a 31-goal, 70-point season and if he can continue to post numbers like that should be a solid value as well at $8MM per year. Turris, on the other hand, now moves down to the third-line center position and the team has high hopes that the 30-year-old will rebound from a seven-goal, 23-point disappointment last year. However, after a solid showing at the World Championships this summer, the team hopes he can rebound.

It’s hard to believe that people talk about the Nashville defense constantly, but only one of them is signed longer than three years. However, Ellis signed his long-term deal, which looks like a bargain for the team. The 28-year-old broke 40 points for the first time in his career and with his exceptional defense, is going to be a key member of their blueline for a long time.

Johansen’s goals have been down since coming over from Columbus, but he continues to be a dominant passer and put up a career high in assists this year with 50 as well as 64 points, the second-best of his career. The 27-year-old should only get better. Arvidsson is also locked up long-term as the 26-year-old scored a career-high 34 goals last season and has proven to be a top-line winger and even looks like a bargain at $4.25MM. Sissons also was just recently signed to a long-term, seven-year contract at a low price as the team believes he should be part of their bottom-six for a long time.

 

Buyouts

None

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Still To Sign

None

Best Value: Ekholm
Worst Value: Turris

Looking Ahead

The Nashville Predators have been put together impressively, using their no-tax situation to their advantage as players have made it clear that they want to stay in Nashville. The team has a solid core, but after a disappointing playoffs, the team must prove that they can return to their old dominance, especially in a challenging division like the Central, and continue to be one of the top teams in the league. Adding another top-six center should help and if they can get the most out of their players, the Predators should be a dominant team for years, but if head coach Peter Laviolette can’t get some of his players to take the next step in their development, they may be in trouble too.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Central Notes: Gustafsson, Boqvist, Turris

at CDT | by 2 Comments

Despite his impressive development over the past two years, the Chicago Blackkhawks could find themselves in trouble with defenseman Erik Gustafsson. The 27-year-old has developed far better than they hoped. After a couple years in the AHL, he established himself with solid half-season in 2017-18 and then followed it up with a dominant year last season. If he continues on that course, unfortunately, the team might not be able to afford him when he becomes a free agent at the end of the season.

Gustafsson, signed out of Finland four years ago, posted an impressive year in 2018-19, scoring 17 goals and posting 60 points and has quietly established himself as a top-line defender for the Blackhawks. In a mailbag column, The Athletic’s Mark Lazerus (subscription required) writes that if Gustafsson continues his success, the team may be forced to trade him at the trade deadline as they likely wouldn’t have the money to pay a top-line defender with their salary cap. Chicago has little money freeing up next year besides their goaltending combination of Corey Crawford and Robin Lehner and they will have to replace that. On top of that, the have a pair of restricted free agents who each should command significant contracts in Alex DeBrincat and Dylan Strome. Regardless, if he commands a significant contract, that could cause a problem if Chicago finds itself in a playoff run.

It might be an easy decision if Chicago is out of the playoff race early and the Blackhawks might be able to nab a first-round pick in exchange for him as Lazerus points out that many teams would be willing to move a late first-round pick for a high quality defenseman.

  • Sticking with the Blackhawks, NBC Sports’ Charlie Roumeliotis writes that perhaps the most impressive player in Chicago’s development camp was defenseman Adam Boqvist, the team’s eighth-overall pick in 2018. According to Chicago’s player development coach Brian Campbell, Boqvist was impressive for a young player, who just turned 19, but the young blueliner still needs time to develop. “Yeah, I was impressed,” Campbell said. “Obviously, he’s come a long way in a year from last development camp. There’s no pressure being put on him. He’ll develop at his time. If he pushes for a spot, great, but I just don’t want people to get away. There’s a lot to keep learning and he wants to learn, which is the greatest thing. His teammates love him: great thing. He wants to do extra and learn the game: great thing. He is preparing himself days before, even in development camp, he’s preparing himself days before. So all great things and he’s on the right path.”
  • In an interview with Nashville Predators general manager David Poile, The Athletic’s Joe Rexrode (subscription required) writes that the GM strongly believes that center Kyle Turris just had a bad season last year. The 30-year-old Turris played in just 55 games, scoring just seven goals and 23 points, not good numbers for a team playing him $6MM for another five seasons. Poile believes that he played impressively for Team Canada at the World Championships and should have a bounce-back season. “I think he’s very happy here,” Poile said. “I don’t think he’s, and I hate speaking for him, but he’s not happy with either how we’re using him or how he’s played. And those are both tied in to each other. So we have to hope and believe after all the conversations and our knowledge of him over many years of success in the National Hockey League, that he’s going to come back and we’ll just chalk this up to a bad year. … That is the question. We want the Kyle Turris that we first traded for. And that’s both on him and on us.”

 

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