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Atlantic Notes: Larkin, Lightning, Moore

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The Detroit Red Wings have two options in regards to signing restricted free agent Dylan Larkin this summer. The team could go short-term or long-term. With a solid, but hardly spectacular season, the Red Wings might want to wait and see how the 21-year-old develops over the next year or two and hand out short contracts to see if he’s worth the money. That makes sense considering the team is capped out with so many long-term deals having been handed out to veterans over the past few years.

However, NBC Sports’ James O’Brien writes that the team needs to look at the long-term option instead and lock up Larkin as quick as possible as he compares Larkin’s situation to that of Leon Draisaitl of the Edmonton Oilers, who signed an eight-year, $68MM deal a year ago, which is starting to look like a bargain after the many signings since then.

Larkin, who has shown that he’s one of the few answers in Detroit still hasn’t broken out with the Red Wings. While his rookie campaign showed plenty of promise with 23 goals, he’s failed to duplicate that number since. However, while he did just tally 16 goals a season ago, his 47 assists was a career-high along with his 63 points, suggesting he might be due for a breakout season. Signing Larkin to a long-term deal now while his value isn’t through the roof might be better than waiting another two years when they will be forced to shell out top dollar in the future with the cap constantly increasing.

  • While it’s already been reported that the eight-year, $76MM extension that Nikita Kucherov signed will not take the Tampa Bay Lightning out of a potential Erik Karlsson trade, the team will have to make some moves if it does pull the trigger on a trade as the team has less than $3MM in cap space for this coming year. Brandon Schlager of the Sporting News writes that the most obvious candidates that would have to be moved would be forwards Ryan Callahan ($5.8MM AAV for two more years), Tyler Johnson ($5MM for six more years), Alex Killorn ($4.45MM for five more years) and defenseman Braydon Coburn ($3.7MM for one year).
  • Kevin Paul Dupont of the Boston Globe attempts to break down what the Boston Bruins defense will look like next season as well as what the team should expect out of their top free agent target, John Moore. The scribe writes that general manager Don Sweeney hasn’t struck gold yet with his long-term free agent deals, pointing to the contracts handed out to Matt Beleskey and David Backes. Beleskey was an outright failure, while Backes has been average, at best. Moore is just 27 years old and will be playing already for his fifth team, which isn’t a good sign. What the team’s plans are for his usage is also unknown as if the team intends to put him on the team’s second-line defensive pairings, then the team would force either Torey Krug or Brandon Carlo to the third-line pairing, which doesn’t make sense either unless the team intends to move Krug. However, there is still no proof that Moore is good enough to be a top-four player.

Coaching Notes: Cronin, Rallo, Lalonde

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Greg Cronin will be the new head coach of the Colorado Eagles as they move from the ECHL to the AHL for the 2018-19 season. Cronin had served with the New York Islanders for the past four seasons, first as an assistant coach and then as an associate with Doug Weight last season. With Barry Trotz coming in and bringing in a new group, Cronin will head to the AHL where the Eagles are trying to follow up incredible ECHL success with a bang in their first year of AHL contention.

Under Aaron Schneekloth—who will remain with the team as an assistant coach—the Eagles have won two consecutive Kelly Cups in the ECHL. They’ll be trying for the Calder this year, but Schneekloth, assistant Ryan Tobler and goaltending coach Ryan Bach will still be there for the journey under Cronin’s leadership. It is experienced leadership, as Cronin has many years of experience in the NHL as well as time spent as a head coach in both the AHL and NCAA.

  • Greg Rallo won’t have to wait long for his next career to begin, as the 36-year old has been named an assistant coach with the Milwaukee Admirals. Rallo only finished his playing career recently, suiting up for 29 games with the Texas Stars in the 2017-18 season. He’ll join head coach Karl Taylor—who was an assistant coach with Texas while Rallo played there—as part of a new staff with the Nashville Predators’ AHL affiliate.
  • The Tampa Bay Lightning have nabbed a coach from the Minnesota Wild organization, hiring Derek Lalonde as an NHL assistant coach for next season. Lalonde had been the head coach of the Iowa Wild in the AHL for the last two years, and is on a fast track to being an NHL head coach one day. He’s flown quickly through head coaching roles in the USHL, ECHL and AHL with winning records at all stops, and will now join a staff in Tampa Bay that is expected to compete for the Stanley Cup. Lalonde was hired to coach the Green Bay Gamblers just a year after now-Lightning head coach Jon Cooper left that organization following a championship season, only to bring the USHL team another championship in 2012.

Tampa Bay Lightning Re-Sign Adam Erne

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It’s not quite the deal that Nikita Kucherov received yesterday, but another Tampa Bay Lightning forward has re-signed with the team. Adam Erne has agreed to a one-year, one-way contract worth $800K. Erne was the team’s last remaining restricted free agent this summer.

The 23-year old Erne hasn’t quite been able to lock down a full-time role with the Lightning to this point in his short career, but could certainly challenge for ice time this season. Tampa Bay always seems to have more cap room when they want to make a big move, and it’s because of inexpensive players like Erne making a real impact at the NHL level. If he can continue to play a heavy game at the bottom of the lineup he’ll be a valuable contributor even without adding a ton of offense. That offense though could still come, as Erne has been a solid—if unspectacular—producer at the minor league level, scoring 26 points in 41 games last season for the Syracuse Crunch. He added just four points during 23 NHL contests.

If he’s not given an opportunity over the next two seasons, Erne would actually qualify for Group VI unrestricted free agency in the summer of 2020. He needs 31 NHL contests before then to become ineligible, or sign a longer-term contract next summer. For now, he’ll play out his year and try to prove that he deserves another deal as a restricted free agent in a year’s time.

Stars May Once Again Be Frontrunner For Erik Karlsson; Rangers Open To Acquiring Ryan Callahan

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  • With talks that discussions between the Senators and Lightning regarding defenseman Erik Karlsson have cooled off, Larry Brooks of the New York Post reports that Dallas has now re-emerged as the likeliest destination for the blueliner. The Stars had shown interest early on but weren’t inclined to include top prospect Miro Heiskanen in a trade which is what had seemingly put them out of the running early on.
  • From the same report, Brooks adds that the Rangers still have some interest in bringing back winger Ryan Callahan if Tampa Bay decides that they still need to free up some cap space for this season and next. New York will likely be seeking some form of draft pick compensation from the Lightning to relieve them of their $5.8MM per season obligation over the next two years.

Nikita Kucherov Signs Eight-Year Extension

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The Tampa Bay Lightning continue to lock up their stars, this time inking Nikita Kucherov to an eight-year extension. The deal was announced by Kucherov’s agent Dan Milstein of Gold Star Hockey on Twitter. The team then officially released the signing, announcing that the deal comes with an average annual value of $9.5MM. Stephen Whyno of the Associated Press has the full breakdown:

  • 2019-20: $1.0MM salary + $11.0MM signing bonus
  • 2020-21: $4.0MM salary + $5.0MM signing bonus
  • 2021-22: $3.5MM salary + $8.5MM signing bonus
  • 2022-23: $4.0MM salary + $5.0MM signing bonus
  • 2023-24: $5.0MM salary + $5.0MM signing bonus
  • 2024-25: $5.0MM salary + $4.0MM signing bonus
  • 2025-26: $5.0MM salary + $3.0MM signing bonus
  • 2026-27: $4.0MM salary + $3.0MM signing bonus

Kucherov, 25, is heading into the final year of his current contract and was scheduled to become a restricted free agent for the final time next summer. Instead, he’ll stay with the Lightning at a price that lets the team retain the rest of their core. Though $9.5MM will make Kucherov the highest-paid player on the Tampa Bay roster, it doesn’t cripple their ability to add more talent going forward. In fact, Chris Johnston of Sportsnet and Joe Smith of The Athletic both tweet that a Kucherov extension does not take the team out of the running for Erik Karlsson who is expected to sign a massive long-term extension with whichever team acquires him from the Ottawa Senators. The Lightning would need to move money out, but the team always expected to sign Kucherov to an expensive extension.

In fact, Tampa Bay looks like they’re in fine shape even with their newest extension. The team currently projects to have around $14MM in cap space next summer without factoring in any increase in the ceiling, and have only Brayden Point left as a key restricted free agent. Several names on the blue line will be expiring, but with the new deal for Ryan McDonagh the team has solidified their blue line without even addressing the Karlsson situation. In the 2020 offseason, when Andrei Vasilevskiy and Mikhail Sergachev will be looking for big raises, Ryan Callahan’s $5.8MM contract will be coming off the books—provided it hasn’t already been traded away.

While handing out long-term extensions like this does put quite a bit of risk on the team’s shoulders, Kucherov is worth every ounce. The Russian winger has gotten off to a Hall of Fame-level start to his NHL career, scoring 334 points in 365 games including cracking 100 (exactly) in the 2017-18 season. An exceptional goal scorer and exquisite passer, Kucherov can create offense by himself or pair with Steven Stamkos as one of the most dynamic duos in the league. Not only does he have the ability to lead the league in scoring at any time, but he’s also received Selke votes twice as one of the league’s best defensive forwards. That’s not his calling card, but Kucherov is capable in nearly every facet of the game.

Kucherov only just turned 25 last month, meaning he’ll finish this extension at age-33. Even as he enters the middle of the deal and no longer provides excess value, the Lightning have players to pick up the slack. Despite trading two top prospects away for McDonagh at the deadline and not selecting in this year’s first round, Tampa Bay still has plenty of young names that will be graduating to the NHL in the coming seasons. Those players will become key if the Lightning and GM Steve Yzerman pursue Karlsson or any other big tickets, as they’ll have to move out some salary to make everyone fit. Fortunately for the club, other than Callahan there are few undesirable deals on the books for the Lightning. J.T. Miller, Tyler Johnson, Ondrej Palat and Alex Killorn all have their warts, but would likely all have suitors on the trade market if made available. That flexibility allows Yzerman to go after even bigger names, while retaining his homegrown stars for the prime of their careers.

Photo courtesy of USA today Sports Images

Atlantic Notes: Bruins, Barkov, Canadiens

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While the Boston Bruins added a couple of small, but important pieces to their team this offseason in goaltender Jaroslav Halak and defenseman John Moore, their two biggest Atlantic Division rivals seem to be working at a much bigger scale. The Toronto Maple Leafs have already successfully signed superstar center John Tavares to a long-term deal, while the Tampa Bay Lightning are trying hard to acquire superstar defenseman Erik Karlsson.

Those two moves (although nothing is definite about Karlsson going to Tampa) suggest that maybe Boston isn’t doing enough to improve their own team. The team looks like they lost veteran Rick Nash who is still trying to decide if he intends to return to the NHL and hasn’t added much to their forward core this season. No doubt Boston general manager Don Sweeney is trying to work the trade market in hopes of picking up a Jeff Skinner or Artemi Panarin. However, NBC Sports Joe Haggerty writes that there is nothing wrong if the team can acquire such a player, but the team needs to stay the course and not overreact to the whatever the Maple Leafs or Lightning do.

Haggerty writes the team had a plan at the end of the season and they need to stick to it, which means the team must hold onto their talented young players and not consider moving them for big-name players. The team already had a plan in place in hopes to upgrade its team, using prospects and pieces such as Torey Krug and Anders Bjork. However, the team also needs to keep their elite young players like Charlie McAvoy and Jake Debrusk, because they will need them to stay with the organization for the next decade. The team shouldn’t panic and attempt to grab a big-name player if it will cost them their long-term future.

  • The Florida Panthers could be making major shakeups in their lineups next season, according to Matthew DeFranks of the SunSentinel. With the addition of more talent this season, including Mike Hoffman and a host of young talent, coach Bob Boughner has a lot of option for loading up his top line which features star Aleksander Barkov. The talented center has spent much of the last three years playing alongside Jonathan Huberdeau and Evgeni Dadonov, who arrived last season. However, with Hoffman and how well forward Nick Bjugstad played on the top line at times last season, it’s likely Barkov could get all new linemates next season, giving the team more depth on both their second and third lines.
  • Brendan Kelly of the Montreal Gazette writes that the Montreal Canadiens have done nothing to get better this offseason. The scribe writes that when you finished the season as the 28th worst team in the league, you need to make big changes. Instead, the team’s biggest trade of Alex Galchenyuk for Max Domi didn’t make the team better, especially since most experts believe that Arizona won the deal, but at best it’s a wash. Then the team’s biggest free agent signing was bringing back Tomas Plekanec, who isn’t the same player he once was and since he spent the majority of the season with Montreal last season, also can’t be anything more than a wash as well. The scribe also points out that if the team was rebuilding then they wouldn’t have tried so hard to go after Tavares or Paul Stastny this offseason. It just looks like another down year in Montreal.

Islanders Must Focus On Moving Forward After Tavares

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When the New York Islanders lost John Tavares, the franchise found itself in a worse situation than it had hoped. The team that struggled a year ago on defense and in goal now lost their top scorer and seem to lack identity (except in the front office). The team will likely make Calder Trophy winner Mathew Barzal the new face of the franchise, but without Tavares, there remains a significant hole in their lineup.

While it seems likely Barzal will replace Tavares as the team’s top center, the real question is who will take over as the team’s No. 2 center? One positive note for New York is that the team has almost $20MM in available cap space after Tavares opted to go to Toronto and that’s after the signings of Valtteri Filppula, Leo Komarov, Robin Lehner and Tom Kuhnhackl as well as trading for Matt Martin. Regardless, none of those players are candidates to fill that No. 2 center position. The team does have restricted free agent Brock Nelson as a candidate to fill that role, but his status is up in the air.

The Athletic’s Shayna Goldman (subscription required) suggests if the Islanders want to make some type of impact move to suggest to their fan base that they are ready to move on (because bringing in Filppula, Komorov, Kuhnhackl, Lehner and Martin didn’t accomplish that), they must look to the trade market where there are a number of interesting names that the team could look to acquire, especially at the center position to show they are moving forward.

The top name is interesting enough as Goldman suggests that New York looks at the Ottawa Senators who are looking to cast off players left and right. Already having moved on from Mike Hoffman and in current trade talks with Erik Karlsson, the scribe writes the Islanders could attempt to make an offer to pry centers Matt Duchene or Jean-Gabriel Pageau away.

While Duchene would probably cost the Islanders quite a bit, he could potentially be a reasonable replacement for Tavares. Even though Ottawa gave up a lot to acquire Duchene less than a year ago, they may be ready to move on from him as he will be a free agent after this season and he might not want to return after having to endure the many problems that Ottawa has dealt with in the past year. However in New York, the team could match him with players like Anders Lee, Jordan Eberle or Josh Bailey and get solid production from him and the team would have the cap room to lock him up. The only downside to acquiring Duchene (despite the likely high cost) would be the team would have to sign him as well as Lee and Eberle next season as all three would be unrestricted free agents for the 2019-20 season. Pageau would be a much cheaper option, but lacks much upside if they want to use him as a second-line center.

One other option would be to pry Tyler Johnson away from the Tampa Bay Lightning, especially with the team attempting to clear out cap space to accommodate Karlsson. Johnson would provide significant value as a second-line center as well, but is locked up for six years at $5MM AAV, so they would be able to hold onto him for a long time.

While finding a replacement for Tavares, the team must also attempt to fix their other issues as they’ve done little to address their defense or goaltending. Adding Robin Lehner helps a little, but after the 26-year-old suffered through a disastrous season (3.01 GAA and a .908 save percentage), a Lehner-Thomas Greiss combination doesn’t sound particularly thrilling. The defense also needs help. The team lost Calvin de Haan to Carolina, although they did bring back Thomas Hickey. Although the team has high hopes that Ryan Pulock is ready to move into a top-four role immediately, his defense has always been suspect, so he isn’t likely to improve the Islanders defensive deficiencies. Andrew Gross of Newsday writes that the team should consider looking into acquiring Justin Faulk from the Carolina Hurricanes as he would provide that stability and would look good as the No. 1 piece along with Hickey, Pulock, Johnny Boychuk and Nick Leddy.

Regardless, with few quality options available to them on the free agent market, the team likely has little choice to make a deal.

 

 

Poll: What Kind Of Extension Is Predators’ Ryan Ellis Worth?

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With top defensemen getting locked up to big, long-term deals everywhere, one only has to look around the league to see who is next. The most obvious target would be Nashville’s Ryan Ellis, who will be wrapping up the final year of his five-year, $12.5MM deal. Ellis, who is one of the core of Nashville’s talented back end, is one of the most underpaid blueliners in the league at $2.5MM AAV, should be in line for a great extension. After all, many of his defensive teammates are already well-paid, including P.K. Subban ($9MM for four more years), Roman Josi ($4MM for two more years), and Mattias Ekholm ($3.75MM for four more years).

Nashville claims that locking up the 27 year old is the team’s top priority this offseason. Yet little has happened. However, how much is he worth, asks Adam Vingan of the Tennessean? While two of the most significant extensions went to Los Angeles’ Kings Drew Doughty (eight years, $11MM AAV) and Arizona Coyotes’ Oliver Ekman-Larsson (eight years, $8.25MM AAV), Ellis likely doesn’t fit into that category. Therefore, Vingan writes that Nashville must compare Ellis’ play with several other tiers of defenseman that have recently signed new deals. The most likely comparables for Ellis will come down to the recent contracts signed by Washington Capitals’ John Carlson (eight years, $8MM AAV) and Tampa Bay Lightning’s Ryan McDonagh (eight years, $6.75MM AAV). However is he as good as those two?

The next tier would be contracts handed out a few years ago that could compare, such as Pittsburgh Penguins’ Kris Letang (eight years, $7.25MM AAV), Erik Johnson (seven years, $6MM AAV) and Anaheim Ducks’ Cam Fowler (eight years, $6.5MM AAV). Ellis’ stats are challenging to look when attempting to compare to any of those defensemen. Offensively, he’s never put up 40 points in a season yet, coming close once with 38 points (16 of those were goals). However, after missing the first half of this past season after undergoing knee surgery in the offseason, Ellis’ stats took a jump when he put up 32 points in 44 games, suggesting that his offense is starting to emerge. With his defense never under question, the Predators must come up with a number soon.

So what range should Ellis fall into?

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Erik Karlsson Trade Talks Have Stalled

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Over the past few days, it seemed like a trade for all-world defenseman Erik Karlsson was imminent. Originally, the Dallas Stars were confirmed to be the leader in the race and deep in talks with the Ottawa Senators on a deal for Karlsson. Not long after, it was the Tampa Bay Lightning who had reportedly pulled ahead and had a deal in place with Ottawa that simply required a third team to take on salary. Some even stated that a deal was done pending a trade call, a rumor that obviously lacked reliability. Karlsson remains a Senator and it now seems like a trade is not coming as quickly as expected.

The Athletic’s Joe Smith, who has had his finger on the pulse of the Lightning’s trade talks, is no longer optimistic about a deal getting done. Smith writes that a deal for Karlsson should not be expected any time soon and that nothing is “imminent or close”. Smith admits that a trade could still work out between Ottawa and Tampa, but it’s no longer the foregone conclusion that some had perceived. Meanwhile the Stars are rumored to have fallen out of favor when they refused to include star blue line prospect Miro Heiskanen in a deal for Karlsson. Sportsnet’s John Shannon believes that the Stars still have a chance to land Karlsson, but it seems that Dallas’ chances depend on whether or not they can be flexible with their offer.

The Senators now have a feel for the market and should be able to work out a fair value for Karlsson soon. However, what isn’t so easy is accommodating their insistence on also sending away Bobby Ryan and his $7.25MM cap hit over four years remaining on his contract. Sportsnet’s Chris Johnston reports today that this is the exact reason that finding a trade partner and working out the details of a deal could prove difficult. A three-team deal, like the one contemplated by Ottawa and Tampa Bay, is the most likely outcome for a Karlsson trade, but such deals don’t develop overnight. A trade could still be a ways away – The Athletic’s Chris Stevenson says that the Lightning, Stars, and Vegas Golden Knights all remain in the running – but Stevenson also says that nothing is close as the Senators have “retrenched” and the suitors are playing hardball. It seems that whichever team is able to up the ante on their offer and also be creative in managing several major contracts will be the team to land Karlsson and change the face of their franchise.

Tampa Bay, Ottawa Seeking Third Team To Facilitate Erik Karlsson Trade

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6:03 PM: TSN’s Darren Dreger reports (Twitter link) that the Rangers are a team that could potentially be involved as the cap facilitator.  Meanwhile, Joe Smith of The Athletic adds (via Twitter) that winger Ryan Callahan is in play for this move.  He has a 16-team trade list.

3:28 PM: The rumor mill has been working overtime this morning on a potential Ottawa Senators-Tampa Bay Lightning trade revolving around superstar defenseman Erik Karlsson, and now Travis Yost of TSN tweets that the teams are in the process of trying to find a third party to facilitate the deal, as balancing salaries is a key part of any transaction of this magnitude. Karlsson is expected to only be traded to a team if a contract extension can be worked out, while the Lightning are not expected to be one of the teams willing to eat Bobby Ryan’s contract. That contract could be exactly why the third team needs to be involved, though Tampa Bay themselves would likely need to move out contracts to fit in a Karlsson extension.

Remember that nothing is final at this point, and since the stakes in any potential blockbuster Karlsson trade are so high things can change at any moment. Just two days ago the Dallas Stars were considered the clear front runners, though now everything seems to be pointing towards the Lightning.

Karlsson is reportedly looking for a contract extension similar to the eight-year, $88MM deal that Drew Doughty recently signed, which would put any team in a financial bind. The Lightning, who know their way around superstar contracts, could potentially fit him in since they’ve inked their other top players to reasonable extensions the last few years. Steven Stamkos ($8.5MM AAV), Victor Hedman ($7.875MM) and Ryan McDonagh ($6.75MM) have all signed relatively team-friendly deals instead of going to free agency, and though the team still needs to sign Nikita Kucherov to a mega-deal, they even have some cap space remaining for the upcoming season.

There are obvious candidates for the Lightning to move to clear more room. Ryan Callahan ($5.8MM), Tyler Johnson ($5.0MM), Alex Killorn ($4.45MM) are all expendable long-term contracts given the emergence of several young players, while Anton Stralman ($4.5MM), Braydon Coburn ($3.7MM) and Dan Girardi ($3.0MM) are defensemen on expiring contracts who could be moved out given Karlsson’s impact on the blue line. The superstar defenseman only costs $6.5MM this season, meaning jettisoning just one of the above players would give the team enough cap space to acquire him.

Remember that teams during the offseason can go up to 10%, or $7.95MM, over the salary cap ceiling but must be compliant again by the beginning of the season. Even if Tampa Bay doesn’t find a taker for one of their contracts, they could still potentially acquire Karlsson only to find a way to get under the cap ceiling by the beginning of the year.

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