Salary Cap Deep Dive: Tampa Bay Lightning
Navigating the salary cap is one of the most important tasks for a front office. Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those who don’t often see struggles and front office changes.
PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation for the 2025-26 season. This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of PuckPedia. We’re currently covering the Atlantic Division, next up are the Lightning.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Current Cap Hit: $96,287,774 (over the $95.5MM Upper Limit)
Entry-Level Contracts
F Dominic James (two years, $910K)
Potential Bonuses
James: $102.5K
James declined to sign with Chicago and instead opted to go to free agency to get a better shot at NHL playing time. It took a bit of time but he has been up for most of the season, albeit in a bottom-six role. He should be able to get some of his games played bonus, an amount that might roll over to next year’s cap given Tampa’s cap situation. If James can stay in this role through next season, doubling this price tag could be doable.
Signed Through 2025-26, Non-Entry-Level
F Oliver Bjorkstrand ($5.4MM, UFA)
D Declan Carlile ($775K, UFA)
F Curtis Douglas ($775K, UFA)
D Darren Raddysh ($975K, UFA)
Bjorkstrand was the big pickup up front at the deadline last season with the fact he had an extra year left on his deal justifying a high price tag in terms of what they paid to get him. Back in the summer, a price tag in the $7MM range seemed feasible but he has been quieter than expected this season. That could lower the cost a bit on a longer-term deal but he also might be a candidate to take a one-year pact somewhere in the hopes of bolstering his value. That market could be fairly lucrative given how thinned out the UFA market has gotten so even with his struggles, he’s still heading for a raise. Douglas has played sparingly this season and while his NHL price will go up thanks to the increase in minimum salary, it’d be surprising if he received a one-way deal.
Raddysh has become one of the most interesting players in the upcoming UFA class. He quietly put up 30-plus points in back-to-back seasons which already made him a bargain at this price tag but this year, he’s hovering around 22 minutes and a point per game. Oh, and he’s a right-shot player too, the side always in maximum demand. The price tag for defensemen who can produce at a point per game can jump close to the $10MM per season range. It’s not feasible to think that Raddysh is going to land there given his smaller track record but something in the $6MM range could very well be doable. That’s still quite a jump for someone who was still trying to become a full-time regular just a few years ago.
Carlile is getting his first taste of extended NHL action and is holding his own in a limited role. He’s probably not going to jump too far past the $850K minimum salary but a one-way deal is a realistic goal to strive for.
Signed Through 2026-27
D Charle-Edouard D’Astous ($775K in 2025-26, $875K in 2026-27, UFA)
F Zemgus Girgensons ($850K, UFA)
F Gage Goncalves ($1.2MM, UFA)
F Pontus Holmberg ($1.55MM, UFA)
G Jonas Johansson ($1.25MM, UFA)
F Nikita Kucherov ($9.5MM, UFA)
D Emil Martinsen Lilleberg ($800K, RFA)
Even as one of the top-paid wingers in the league when this contract first started, Kucherov has been a bargain for the Lightning. Even if he agrees to keep taking a bit below market value, market value has jumped with the sharper increases to the salary cap. On the other hand, he’ll be entering his age-34 contract when this deal begins. A short-term deal could push the AAV into the $13MM or more range unless he wants to leave a lot of money on the table. I explored what a longer-term deal could look like in an effort to keep the price tag a little lower in a mailbag; if Tampa Bay wants to go six years, they could get an AAV more around the $10MM to $10.5MM range if all went well.
Holmberg has fit in nicely in his first season with Tampa Bay after being non-tendered by Toronto to avoid arbitration. The fact he can play center (even though he hasn’t much with the Lightning) will help his market value. If he can stay in a third-line role next season, doubling this price tag could be doable.
Goncalves has given Tampa Bay a bit of offense from the bottom six which is good but players like him often become non-tender candidates with teams wanting to keep their depth spots a little cheaper. With arbitration rights putting him in a spot to likely push for more than $2MM per season, Goncalves could be another in this trend. Girgensons had a tough first year in Tampa Bay but has been better this season, moving onto the third line. Still, at this stage of his career, teams will likely view him as a low-cost fourth liner. A small raise should be doable unless he wants to leave money on the table again to play for a contender.
Lilleberg has been a nice depth pickup after Arizona gave up his draft rights and a contract below the minimum next season (even after being boosted to reflect the new minimum salary) is a nice bonus. Value-wise, he’s a player who could seemingly land around the $1.5MM to $2MM mark but like Goncalves, his arbitration eligibility could work against him should he be unsigned by the end of June 2027. D’Astous has also been a nice find in free agency and quickly went from a player earmarked for AHL Syracuse to someone who has seen time in the top four. Even his in-season extension looks like a team-friendly one. If he stays as a top-four piece, a jump to the $3MM range could be realistic.
Johansson has been a below-average netminder throughout his career but with the Lightning having a high-end starter, they’ve opted for a low-cost second-string option. If he’s content with the role he has, another short-term deal around this price point is doable for him.
Signed Through 2027-28
D Maxwell Crozier ($775K, UFA)
G Andrei Vasilevskiy ($9.5MM, UFA)
Crozier is a full-time NHL player for the first time this season and understandably has had a limited role when he has been in the lineup. But a seventh defender at the league minimum for a few years is still reasonable value. The goal for Crozier will be to work his way into a full-time lineup spot which will need to happen for him to comfortably eclipse the $1MM mark on his next contract.
After a rough 2023-24 season by his standards, Vasilevskiy has bounced back to Vezina-level form and is providing a good return on this price tag. Like Kucherov, he’ll be heading into his age-34 contract and a long-term pact is going to be needed to keep this price tag down a bit. He’s someone who could aim to pass Igor Shesterkin’s $11.5MM AAV although if it’s a longer-term agreement, it could check in closer to where it is now.
Trade Deadline Primer: Tampa Bay Lightning
With the Olympic break now upon us, the trade deadline is less than a month away. Where does each team stand, and what moves should they be looking to make? We begin our look around the league with teams that have clear plans at the extremes of the standings, this time with the Lightning.
An aging core with extensive injury issues usually isn’t a recipe for success. No one’s told that to the Lightning, who’ve been one of the most consistent clubs in the league after starting the year on a 1-4-2 skid. They’ve lost nearly 70 man-games just from star players like Andrei Vasilevskiy, Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point, Anthony Cirelli, and Victor Hedman, but still rank top-five in both goals for and goals against while allowing the seventh-fewest shots per game in the league. In a wide-open Eastern Conference, they have as good a chance as anyone to make their fourth Stanley Cup Final appearance in seven years.
Record
37-14-4, 1st in the Atlantic (99.92% playoff probability)
Deadline Status
Buyer
Deadline Cap Space
$3.84MM on deadline day, 0/3 retention slots used, 47/50 contracts used, per PuckPedia.
Upcoming Draft Picks
2026: TBL 2nd, TBL 3rd, SEA 5th, TBL 5th, TBL 6th, TBL 7th
2027: TBL 2nd, TBL 3rd, TBL 4th, TBL 6th, TBL 7th
Trade Chips
Unlike in years past, the Bolts’ arsenal of draft picks isn’t completely drained. They don’t have their firsts for the next two years, but they do still have one in 2028. With the Artemi Panarin trade potentially setting a precedent for a buyer’s market, that may not matter too much if the Bolts follow their usual M.O. of opting for depth over flash at the deadline. The firsts they’re missing, though, went to acquiring players who are still contributing this season – Oliver Bjorkstrand and Yanni Gourde.
General manager Julien BriseBois was seemingly interested in landing a big fish this time around in Panarin, though. However, with Tampa’s player acquisition approach usually centering around a hyper-specific approach, it’s unrealistic to expect that eagerness to apply to just anyone.
High-value, middle-six forwards with term will remain attractive. In doing so, they’ll need to put forth a package in which the most attractive asset is worth more than a mid-to-late second-round pick. If they were in anything close to legitimate talks to acquire Panarin, even as a rental, they had to at least breach the subject of flipping their new top prospect. Tampa acquired center Sam O’Reilly from the Oilers last summer in a swap of late first-round picks last offseason. The 32nd overall pick in the 2024 draft, O’Reilly is in his final junior season in the OHL and was recently traded by the London Knights to the Kitchener Rangers. He hasn’t shown overwhelming offensive development since his draft year, but he was always touted as a safe, two-way third-line agitator with good vision.
If, for example, Tampa were to pursue a reunion with Flames winger Blake Coleman, they’d likely need to leverage O’Reilly to get him. The retooling Flames are under no imminent pressure to move him, since his deal runs through next season at a $4.9MM cap hit, and their ask from Tampa would likely be higher anyway, since Calgary would need to retain money on Coleman if they’re not taking a roster player back. They gave up a first-round pick to get him from the Devils back in 2020 and, while they don’t have a close one to spare this time around, O’Reilly could hold similar value.
Any trade the Bolts make is unlikely to involve a roster player of any consequence going the other way. They’ve been hanging on by a thread due to injuries for most of the campaign anyway and, while some expert coaching from Jon Cooper has kept their underlying numbers on the up-and-up throughout, making any meaningful subtraction from their depth – unless they’re bringing in multiple pieces like last year’s Bjorkstrand/Gourde pickup from Seattle – is antithetical to the Bolts’ usual preferences. One name they could have more comfortably leveraged, center Jack Finley, was just claimed off waivers by the Blues.
Behind O’Reilly, Tampa’s prospect pool was regarded as one of the weakest in the league entering the season. Years of contention will do that. That notion has been somewhat salvaged by an incredible breakout from 2025 fourth-rounder Benjamin Rautianen, though. In his native Finland, the 20-year-old center has exploded for 17 goals and 61 points in 46 games with Tappara, leading the Liiga in scoring. Expecting the Bolts to be willing to lose both O’Reilly and Rautianen in one trade deadline might simply be too much risk for a team without much else in the pipeline, though.
Team Needs
Third-Line Piece: It just so happens that Tampa’s preferred deadline target continues to make too much sense this time around. A down year for Point and injuries to him and Cirelli make their depth chart look thin down the middle at the moment, but at full strength, that’s not a concern. Finding someone to bump a more offensively limited name like Gage Goncalves out of a top-nine role on the wing, though, would be a legitimately helpful addition to an offense that already ranks fourth in the league at the Olympic break. Coleman makes sense, as could pending UFA Michael Bunting out of Nashville.
Right-Shot Depth On Defense: Tampa doesn’t need a needle-mover on the blue line. Darren Raddysh‘s breakout this season has ensured that. Still, he and Erik Černák are the only two righties in the system capable of playing NHL minutes in the postseason on a regular basis. Maxwell Crozier is a fine depth option, but expecting him to step into the top four in case Černák or Raddysh gets hurt – or dealing with some chemistry issues by icing so many lefties – isn’t a great thought. An experienced rental 3RD option for a mid-round pick, like Connor Murphy or a reunion with Luke Schenn, might be a shrewd move.
Image courtesy of Perry Nelson-Imagn Images.
Blues Claim Jack Finley Off Waivers From Lightning
There may be a trade freeze in the NHL right now but waiver wire moves can still be made. The Blues have added some young depth off the wire, as Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reports (Twitter link) that they’ve claimed center Jack Finley off waivers from the Lightning. Under the rules for roster movement during the break, he won’t be required to report to St. Louis until February 17th.
The 23-year-old was a second-round pick by Tampa Bay back in 2020, going 57th overall. At the time, Finley wasn’t lighting it up in junior hockey with WHL Spokane but with a six-foot-six frame and an ability to play down the middle, the Lightning hoped that he’d eventually fill out and become a potential bottom-six option for them. He had 57 points in his draft year and then in 2021-22 (2020-21 was largely wiped out), he managed just 50 so the offensive outburst never came.
However, Finley showed some promising signs offensively in the minors. In his first three full professional seasons, he reached the double-digit goal mark in all three, ranging between 12 goals in his rookie year to 14 tallies last season, when he wound up with 28 points in 40 contests with AHL Syracuse. Given that, Tampa Bay was hesitant to cut him in training camp, instead keeping him around at the back of their roster.
Unfortunately for Finley, playing time was difficult to come by. He played in just 11 games over the first two months of the season, resulting in a three-game conditioning stint with the Crunch, where he had three points. Finley did play a bit more regularly after being recalled, seeing action in 12 games over the last seven-plus weeks but that was still minimal playing time overall. On the season, he has two goals and one assist in 23 outings while playing just 8:25 per game. He’s also chipped in 37 hits and has won 48.5% of his faceoffs.
Finley, a St. Louis native, now joins a team that looks to be heading for at least some sort of rebuild or retooling process with the team well out of playoff contention. Accordingly, he should have an easier pathway to consistent playing time down the stretch if the Blues sell off more veterans as they did with the Nick Bjugstad trade earlier this week; Finley effectively fills his spot on the roster.
While waiver claims are often on short-term deals, that isn’t the case here. Finley is in the first season of a three-year deal that currently carries a cap hit of $775K. As the league minimum increases next season, the AAV of the deal will go up to reflect the higher salary being paid. The final two seasons of the agreement are a one-way salary so St. Louis is potentially absorbing around $2MM in cash costs over the next three years. But if Finley is able to fill a depth role during that stretch, it’ll be a worthwhile pickup for them.
Photo courtesy of Russell LaBounty-Imagn Images.
Lightning Place Jack Finley On Waivers
The Tampa Bay Lightning have made another roster move ahead of the NHL’s looming break, placing centerman Jack Finley on waivers per Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman.
Finley lost his waiver exemption just over two weeks ago, after being called up on December 20th. Teams across the NHL will now have a chance to add the 23-year-old, former second-round draft pick.
Finley has spent the bulk of the season on Tampa Bay’s roster. He won an extra forward role out of training camp and rotated into the lineup throughout November. The Lightning briefly assigned Finley to the minors in mid-December on the heels of a five-game scoring drought. The move seemed to provide a spark. Finley scored three points in three AHL games, returned to the NHL with a two-point performance, and earned an outright fourth-line role amid a handful of injuries.
But Finley hasn’t kept his hot streak alive in a nightly role. He has recorded no points and a minus-one over his last 10 appearances, even despite Tampa Bay posting a 9-0-1 record and +19 goal differntial in those games. Finley has bridged his lack of production by averaging the fourth-most hits per game on the team.
Tampa Bay will need more than that to keep the offense firing on all cylinders. A waiver designation could give the Lightning a chance to assign Finley to the minors, where he racked up 60 points in 92 games over the last two seasons. That is, if another team isn’t interested in locking Finley into their own bottom-six role.
Team Canada To Replace Injured Brayden Point With Seth Jarvis
After five days of practices, Tampa Bay Lightning forward Brayden Point has determined he will not be healthy enough to join Team Canada at the 2026 Winter Olympics. He has been removed from the roster and will be replaced by Carolina Hurricanes’ winger Seth Jarvis, per Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic and Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman.
Point sustained a knee injury in Tampa Bay’s January 12th win over the Philadelphia Flyers. The injury knocked him off the ice until last Saturday, when he returned to practice with the hopes of working back to health in time for a trip to Milan, per Eduardo A. Encina of Tampa Bay Times. Despite that return, Point has determined he won’t be at 100 percent before games kick off. Lightning general manager Julien BriseBois commended Point – and Tampa Bay teammate Anthony Cirelli – for their selflessness in giving up their spot rather than trying to play through injury in a text to LeBrun.
This switch will bring on some stylistic changes for Team Canada. Point is often used as a center, though seemed headed for a wing-role in Milan in part thanks to his 45.9 faceoff percentage this season. He is a reserved scorer who has managed 11 goals and 30 points in 37 games, typically finding his scoring chances from the slot. Jarvis has proven much more aggressive in recent years, typically operating as the first-man-in on Carolina’s forecheck and cutting his teeth in board battles. He has 69 hits on the season to Point’s four. Jarvis has also scored 25 goals and 43 points in 48 games, continuing his knack for strong scoring after cresting the 30-goal and 65-point mark in each of the last two seasons.
Both players found an impact for Team Canada at the 2025 4-Nations Face-Off. Point served up the lineup and managed two points in four games, while Jarvis defaulted to the bottom-six and scored one assist in three games. They were both on the ice for the tournament finale against Team USA, where Point’s 21 minutes of ice time ranked second on the offense behind only Connor McDavid. Jarvis played roughly 13 minutes in that game – second-lowest on the team ahead of Brad Marchand.
That deployment goes far in painting Canada’s view of the two stars. While Jarvis has acheived more success this season, he is still the junior to two-time Stanley Cup winner Point. Jarvis is six years younger and still carving out his presence in the NHL. This year’s Winter Olympics could go far in helping cement his status, especially after Jarvis only attended two tournaments with Canada – the 2019 World U-17 Hockey Championshp and Hlinka Gretzky Cup – prior to his selection to the 4-Nations roster. This will be his biggest stage yet and it comes at a perfect time. Jarvis is red-hot, with 10 points and a plus-eight in his last nine games, of which Carolina has won seven.
Notably, this decisions will leave Winnipeg Jets star Mark Scheifele and Chicago Blackhawks cornerstone Connor Bedard both at home. Scheifele hasn’t represented Canada internationally since the 2017 World Championship when he scored eight points in 10 games. Nearly a decade later, the Jets alternate captain is on pace for 40 goals and 100 points this season – so far at 27 goals and 68 points in 56 games. Bedard has offered plenty of offensive punch of his own, with 23 goals and 53 points in 43 games on a struggling Blackhawks offense. The duo are two of the league’s most skilled scorers but will be superceded by a winger who offers a bit more intangibles.
Photo courtesy of Sergei Belski-Imagn Images.
Anthony Cirelli To Miss Olympics
In an unfortunate update, Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman shared that Tampa Bay Lightning forward Anthony Cirelli will be unable to play for Team Canada in the upcoming Olympics due to injury. Friedman added that Sam Bennett would replace Cirelli on Team Canada’s roster.
Back in the 2022-23 season, after scoring 11 goals and 29 points in 58 games, Cirelli became a legitimate trade candidate for the Lightning. Tampa Bay had just signed him to an eight-year, $50MM extension, a high price to play for a center that wasn’t always available.
Lightning Recall Scott Sabourin
After more than a month away from the team, an old-fashioned enforcer is returning to the Tampa Bay Lightning. According to a team announcement, the Lightning have recalled Scott Sabourin from the AHL’s Syracuse Crunch.
Sabourin, 33, was only in the AHL for the last week and a half. On December 28th, in a game against the Montreal Canadiens, Sabourin got into a fight with defenseman Arber Xhekaj, leading to an undisclosed injury. Tampa Bay placed him on the injured reserve a few days later, and he wasn’t activated until January 23rd.
Unfortunately, Sabourin’s return to the Lightning’s roster comes with some bad news. Eduardo A. Encina of the Tampa Bay Times reported this morning that forwards Anthony Cirelli and Nick Paul, both injured in the Stadium Series contest against the Boston Bruins, aren’t expected to play again before the upcoming Olympic break. Additionally, Brayden Point, who is recovering from a knee injury, isn’t poised to return until after the Olympics, either.
The Lightning’s defensive core has already been tested this season. Now, their center depth will face a similar uphill battle over their last two contests before the break. Fortunately, Cirelli and Point are expected to play for Team Canada in the upcoming international contest, meaning there shouldn’t be any long-term injury concerns.
Assuming he plays in at least one of Tampa Bay’s final two contests, Sabourin will register his 10th game of the season, meaning he’ll need to clear waivers should they attempt to assign him back to AHL Syracuse. Over his nine contests thus far, he’s scored one goal and three points, averaging 8:12 of ice time per game.
Lightning Activate Victor Hedman, Reassign Maxim Groshev
Tampa Bay Lightning captain Victor Hedman is set to return under the lights of today’s Stadium Series game against Boston. The team activated him off injured reserve while assigning Maxim Groshev to the AHL in a corresponding transaction, as reported by Erik Erlendsson of Lightning Insider.
Hedman returning today has been expected in the last 24 hours, but the team had to clear $841k of salary cap space, now out of the way.
The 35-year-old has been sidelined since December 9 after undergoing elbow surgery. Remarkably, even without their #1 defender, the Bolts managed to come away with an 18-3-2 record while he was absent, along with fellow key lefty Ryan McDonagh also missing time. The success is in large part thanks to J.J. Moser and Darren Raddysh, both who are having career years complementing each other in a top pairing role.
Despite being bothered by the lingering elbow issue prior to surgery, Hedman hardly missed a beat, posting 12 helpers in 18 games and handling business in his own end as well, all on 21:05 a night. Finally able to return to action, the 17-year veteran will also have an opportunity to make his Olympic Games debut shortly, where he’ll help lead Team Sweden in Milan.
Considering their dominance even while so thin on the back end, his return along with McDonagh is a scary thought for opponents ahead.
Headed back down, Groshev has been subject of several such transactions throughout the campaign so far, oftentimes a healthy scratch but managing to make his NHL debut in late December, along with another appearance early last week against Utah. The 24-year-old defender notched an assist in his debut, averaging 11:30 across the two games.
Naturally, with Hedman as well as McDonagh healthy again, Groshev could be set to spend the rest of the year with Syracuse, as opportunities narrow. Even if such is the case, the 2020 draftee impressively earned his way to an NHL debut and helped the Lightning hold down the fort, playing as strong as ever. Tonight will be a memorable event for the club as they take the ice at Raymond James Stadium, with a long-awaited return of their captain, no less.
Multiple Lightning Players Resume Skating
- There is more positive news on the injury front for the Tampa Bay Lightning. It’s already been reported that captain Victor Hedman will return to the lineup tomorrow, and the team is only a few days away from returning a few more. According to team reporter Benjamin Pierce, the trio of Brayden Point, Emil Martinsen Lilleberg, and Charle-Edouard D’Astous all skated with the team at practice today. Once Hedman officially returns, they will be the only remaining players on the injured reserve.
[SOURCE LINK]
Lightning Expected To Activate Victor Hedman
The Tampa Bay Lightning should have their captain back for tomorrow’s Stadium Series. According to ESPN’s Greg Wyshynski, the Lightning are expected to activate Victor Hedman ahead of tomorrow’s outdoor matchup against the Boston Bruins.
Unfortunately, it won’t be a straightforward activation. According to PuckPedia, Tampa Bay will need to clear $841K of salary cap space to activate Hedman. Still, it’ll be fairly easy to get there. The Lightning could move Brayden Point from injured reserve to long-term injured reserve, or reassign Maxim Groshev to the AHL’s Syracuse Crunch.
It’s been nearly two months since Hedman last participated in an NHL contest. The 17-year veteran hasn’t played since December 9th after undergoing elbow surgery, limiting him to 18 games on the season.
Still, he’s been his typical self when healthy. Before the injury, Hedman registered 12 assists while averaging more than 21 minutes of ice time per game. Half of those tallies came on the Bolts’ powerplay.
Additionally, he hasn’t missed a step on the defensive side of the puck. Specifically at even strength, Hedman averaged a 53.7 CorsiFor% and 92.1 on-ice SV%. The latter output is the highest he has managed since the 2017-18 campaign.
It’ll be interesting to see how head coach Jon Cooper redeploys Hedman upon his return. He is a natural top-pairing option, but Cooper is likely to be hesitant about breaking up the combination of J.J. Moser and Darren Raddysh, given how well the pair has been performing lately.
Given that fellow veteran Ryan McDonagh recently returned from a foot injury, the Lightning could slide him down to the bottom pairing with Maxwell Crozier. That would give both McDonagh and Hedman ample time to ramp up to their natural playing time and spread out the depth as Tampa Bay returns to full strength.