Can The Lightning Remain Competitive For Much Longer?
The Lightning were bounced last week in Game 7 of their opening series against the Canadiens, in what was one of the most evenly matched series the NHL has seen in a long time. Still, it was a tale of two teams headed in opposite directions.
The Canadiens are at the beginning of their competitive window and are surging towards what could become a special era of hockey in Montreal, while the Lightning are on the downslope from their best era in franchise history. With the window to win closing and four straight first-round exits, it’s time to start asking how much longer the Lightning can remain a top team in the NHL.
The Lightning have been among the gold standard in the NHL for the past ten years, winning two Stanley Cups, reaching three Stanley Cup Finals, and making a fourth appearance in 2015. On top of that, they have sustained regular-season success and made hard decisions to let top players move to other teams.
All the while, they have found ways to replace the players who have moved on, either internally or through trades and free agency. Darren Raddysh is a great example of a free agent find who fits in seamlessly with the Lightning.
But with his pending free agency, plus Kucherov being 14 months away from free agency as well, and an aging core, it’s fair to wonder whether the salary cap, their aging stars, and a ton of playoff hockey have finally caught up to them.
Despite their stars aging, Tampa Bay’s core remains elite, and many of their best players are firmly in their primes, including Brayden Point and Brandon Hagel. Kucherov is on the wrong side of 30 but remains among the NHL’s best offensive players, and Andrei Vasilevskiy still gives the team elite goaltending. But are they still good enough to compete for a Cup?
At some point, the mileage on the players becomes a concern. Just look at what happened to the Penguins, Blackhawks and Kings after their Stanley Cup runs in the 2010s. All three teams had a few years of quick playoff appearances before their postseason run ended as they tried to hold on to their last bit of relevance. In all of those cases, the wear and tear caught up with the players. The veterans then aged out or moved on, and rough times followed.
It’s an inevitability in hockey; everyone ages out eventually. Tampa Bay is in the early stages of that cycle.
Not to mention, many members of the Lightning don’t get around the ice the way they once did, particularly on defense, which hurts the Lightning’s overall team speed and depth. Speaking of depth, it’s hard to imagine Tampa Bay replenishing it the way it has in the past, given that it has sent many futures out the door in win-now moves, which have also eroded its salary cap flexibility. Tampa Bay has done a good job of finding cheap replacements, but that becomes harder every year as depth pieces depart due to cap pressures.
The Lightning don’t have many high-end prospects in the pipeline and have one of the weakest prospect pools in the NHL, ranking 24th in The Athletic’s prospect rankings. While that ranking is an improvement from 29th place in 2025, it isn’t anything to write home about, and the Lightning don’t appear to have a ton of help coming in the way of prospects.
Forward Conor Geekie looks like a gamer after scoring at a point-per-game pace in the AHL this season. The 2022 11th overall pick was one of the pieces of the Mikhail Sergachev trade with Utah and could be ready for a full-time NHL role next season, which would be huge for the Lightning.
Tampa Bay would love a similar timeline for forward Sam O’Reilly, but he is likely a few years away from full-time NHL duty. The 2024 first-round pick (32nd overall) is in the midst of a terrific playoff run with the Kitchener Rangers of the OHL, but he probably needs a year or two of AHL seasoning before he’ll be ready for the NHL. O’Reilly was just named the winner of the Red Tilson Trophy, awarded annually to the Ontario Hockey League’s most outstanding player, and is chasing a third straight OHL title and a second straight Memorial Cup.
Those big games will bode well for O’Reilly’s development, but his offensive ceiling has been limited, and he hasn’t significantly increased his scoring over the last two years. Wheeler projects O’Reilly as a 3C in the NHL, which is great, but if the Lightning want to extend their window of contention, they’ll need more from him.
The final point to consider when it comes to Lightning’s competition is the division they play in. The Buffalo Sabres have finally arrived and appear to be the real deal. The same can be said for the Habs, who are poised to go on a long run as a potential powerhouse. Ottawa still boasts a solid core of young players, and the Red Wings have some nice pieces that are itching to get to the NHL, and you figure they will put it all together at some point.
Then there are the Panthers, who have a deep core of champions and will be hungry to return to the playoffs next season after an injury-riddled campaign this year. It’s impossible to guess what the division will look like next year, but even the Bruins and Maple Leafs don’t feel like they are going to go away easily. The Atlantic Division is an absolute buzzsaw, and next year could be the toughest yet.
Can Tampa Bay overcome all of these obstacles and roll back the clock? Only time will tell, but extending their window starts this summer, and they will have their work cut out for them. GM Julian BriseBois has proven doubters wrong in the past, as his club has consistently adapted to challenges and kept the window to win open.
It helps to have the best coach in the game behind the bench in Jon Cooper, but at some point, the magic runs out, and a team’s window of opportunity to win slams shut. For the Lightning, that day is coming; it’s just a matter of when.
Moser To Play At Worlds, Mignosa Makes College Commitment
Lightning defenseman J.J. Moser will suit up for Switzerland at the upcoming World Championship, per an announcement from the Swiss Ice Hockey Federation. The 25-year-old is coming off a strong season, one that saw him produce 29 points in 79 games while averaging a career-best 21:34 per night of playing time. Moser’s efforts saw him receive an eight-year, $54MM contract extension midseason that will keep him in the fold through 2033-34. With Victor Hedman not playing in their first-round exit against Montreal, Moser was counted on even more, logging 23:32 per night, the third-highest ATOI for Tampa Bay in the series. The Swiss are hosting this year’s Worlds and will now have another defensive anchor to rely on for the tournament.
- Still with the Lightning, prospect Marco Mignosa announced on his Instagram page that he will play for Penn State next season. The 21-year-old finished up his junior career this season with OHL Soo, collecting 35 goals and 54 assists in 65 regular season games while adding 17 points in 10 playoff contests. Mignosa, a 2025 seventh-round pick, briefly joined AHL Syracuse on an ATO but never suited up for them, maintaining his college eligibility in the process.
Nikita Kucherov, Nathan MacKinnon, Connor McDavid Named Hart Trophy Finalists
According to an announcement from the league, Nikita Kucherov of the Tampa Bay Lightning, Nathan MacKinnon of the Colorado Avalanche, and Connor McDavid of the Edmonton Oilers are the three finalists for the Hart Memorial Trophy. The award is given annually “to the player adjudged to be the most valuable to his team.”
Although he hasn’t won the award since the 2018-19 campaign, Kucherov becomes a finalist for the league-MVP for the third consecutive year. Despite not leading the league in scoring this season, it’s hard to argue that Kucherov isn’t deserving of the award. Given the number of injuries the Lightning dealt with this season, especially to the defensive corps, there’s no telling how bad the season could have gone if they didn’t have Kucherov’s point-producing offense (although a significant argument can be made that it was Andrei Vasilevskiy doing the heavy lifting).
Most impressively, Kucherov managed his fourth consecutive season in which he managed to register more than 80 assists. His final scoring line was 44 goals and 130 points in 76 games with a +43 rating, averaging over 20 minutes of ice time per game. In some of the major scoring categories, Kucherov ranked eighth in goals (44), second in assists (86), second in points (130), third in goals created (46.3), fourth in even-strength goals (35), fourth in goals per game (0.58), first in assists per game (1.13), first in points per game (1.71), and second in goals created per game (0.61).
MacKinnon, on the other hand, has a strong case, being the most dominant player on the most dominant team. Like Kucherov, he has become synonymous with the award over the last several years, finishing in the top five in voting for four consecutive years, and winning the award in the 2023-24 campaign.
He’s already won one major award this year, taking home the Maurice “Rocket” Richard Trophy as the highest-scoring player. MacKinnon finished with 53 goals and 127 points in 80 games with a +57 rating, averaging north of 22 minutes of ice time per game. Compared to the other finalists, MacKinnon finished first in goals (53), third in assists (74), third in points (127), second in goals created (48.0), first in even-strength goals (42), first in goals per game (0.66), fifth in assists per game (0.93), third in points per game (1.59), and third goals created per game (0.60).
Meanwhile, everything that is true of Kucherov and MacKinnon is true of McDavid. The 29-year-old has already won the award three times and has finished in the top 10 in voting every year of his career after his rookie campaign. As incredible as McDavid has been throughout his career, he quietly had the second-highest scoring season of his career, scoring 48 goals and 138 points in 82 games with a +17 rating, averaging nearly 23 minutes of ice time per game.
Taking home the Art Ross Trophy as the league’s highest-scoring, McDavid finished third in goals (48), first in assists (90), first in points (138), first in goals created (50.5), fifth in even strength goals (34), third in goals per game (0.59), second in assists per game (1.10), second in points per game (1.68), and first in goals created per game (0.62).
Despite each of the three finalists having a strong claim for the award, the conversation can’t be had without mentioning youngster Macklin Celebrini of the San Jose Sharks. The language used by the NHL regarding the award, along with the writers who make up the PHWA’s interpretation of it, has sparked considerable debate in recent years.
The argument regarding MacKinnon doesn’t seem as convincing, considering how dominant his teammates on the Avalanche were this year. However, there is a valid point that the Lightning and Oilers might not have made the playoffs this season if they hadn’t had either player available, though this is likely less applicable to the Lightning.
Even though the Sharks didn’t qualify for postseason play, there’s little rationality that the team would have been in striking distance of a playoff spot without Celebrini. The second-year forward scored 45 goals and 115 points in 82 games for the Sharks this season, with the next closest player, Will Smith, finishing with 59 points (albeit in limited action due to injuries). Furthermore, the gap between Celebrini’s and Smith’s point totals, 115 and 59, respectively, is significantly more than the gaps that Kucherov, MacKinnon, or McDavid had on their teams this season.
Regardless, the votes have already been cast, and we’ll find out in a few short weeks which one of the trio will ultimately be named the league MVP for the 2025-26 season.
Photo courtesy of Steven Bisig of USA TODAY Sports.
Latest On Darren Raddysh’s Pending Free Agency
The Tampa Bay Lightning appear to have found another internal success story on their blue line, as defenseman Darren Raddysh has played his way into a far more prominent role within the organization. According to Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman, the NHL Insider noted reported that Tampa Bay now views Raddysh as a “key part” of its power play and a long‑term piece of its defensive group, which has become a notable shift for a player who entered the league as a depth option.
Raddysh’s rise comes after a breakout 22-goal, 70‑point season, one that has given the Lightning a much‑needed boost as their veteran core continues to age. His ability to move pucks efficiently and run the top power‑play unit has added an element that the team has lacked since the departure of several key contributors in recent years. Head coach Jon Cooper has leaned heavily on Raddysh’s poise and distribution, and the results have pushed him from a secondary option into a central role.
The timing is also significant from a roster‑building standpoint. Raddysh played the season on one of the league’s most affordable contracts at a meager $975k, but that situation won’t last long. If Tampa Bay intends to keep him, he is in line for a substantial raise. Friedman’s report suggests the Lightning are well aware of that reality and may look to secure an extension.
Tampa Bay is projected to have just over $14 million in cap space entering the 2026-27 offseason, but that number shrinks quickly once roster spots and other pending decisions are factored in. Any new deal for Raddysh would need to fit within a tight structure, particularly with the Lightning still trying to maintain a competitive window.
Even so, locking in a productive right‑shot defenseman with power‑play utility would address one of the organization’s most pressing long‑term needs. Raddysh’s single-season emergence gives Tampa Bay a cost‑controlled contributor in the short term and a potential fixture on the back end as the roster transitions in the coming years.
Morning Notes: Hedman, Rutherford, Owen Sound
A few days ago, it was announced that the captain of the Tampa Bay Lightning, Victor Hedman, had taken a leave of absence from the team for mental health reasons. Taking the absence on March 25th, Hedman missed Tampa Bay’s last 15 games of the regular season, and their Round One series loss against the Montreal Canadiens.
From a team perspective, it’s a bind in all honesty, as you’re stuck between wanting the best for the player and their long-term health, while also recognizing that your team is better when Hedman is on the ice. Furthermore, there’s no set timeline for how long it takes a player to recover, unlike more objective injuries.
Still, Hedman shared that he’s feeling much better, and there’s not much concern that he won’t begin the 2026-27 season on time. In fact, speaking on 32 Thoughts, Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman indicated that there’s a “1000% chance” that Hedman plays next year. Given that there’s a distinct possibility that the Lightning lose defenseman Darren Raddysh in free agency this summer, having Hedman back for the whole year will make that pill go down much easier.
Additional morning notes:
- Canucks President of Hockey Operations Jim Rutherford provided more context behind his decision to step down from his role at the head of Vancouver’s front office. In an interview with Sportsnet’s Iain MacIntyre, Rutherford said, “It was time for me before the season even started; I was trending in that direction. But I think we can put something together here in our hockey department that I can feel good about when I step down.“
- According to Greg Cowan of the Owen Sound Sun Times, the OHL’s Board of Governors is preparing to meet to finalize the sale of the Owen Sound Attack. Cowan indicated that an official announcement of the sale is expected in the next few days and that the new ownership group plans to hire a relatively young player agent to lead the hockey operations department.
Anthony Cirelli, Brock Nelson, Nick Suzuki Named Selke Trophy Finalists
The NHL announced today that Anthony Cirelli of the Tampa Bay Lightning, Brock Nelson of the Colorado Avalanche, and Nick Suzuki of the Montreal Canadiens have been named the three finalists for the 2025–26 Frank J. Selke Trophy, awarded annually to the forward who “best excels in the defensive aspects of the game.” Voting was conducted by members of the Professional Hockey Writers Association at the conclusion of the regular season.
Cirelli earned his second consecutive Selke nomination after another standout two-way campaign in Tampa Bay. The Lightning posted the NHL’s second-best goal differential (+57) and third-best goals against (229), with Cirelli driving their defensive identity. Despite missing 11 games, he led all Tampa Bay forwards in shorthanded ice time (186:51) for a penalty kill that ranked third in the league at 82.6%. At even-strength, the Lightning outscored opponents 76-42 with Cirelli on the ice, a team-best 64.4% goal share, and the highest mark of his eight full NHL seasons. He also posted a career-high +38 rating and took a team-leading 1,075 faceoffs. Cirelli finished third in last year’s voting, becoming the first Selke finalist in franchise history.
Nelson, a first-time finalist in his first full season with Colorado, played a crucial role in the Avalanche’s defensive turnaround. They captured the Presidents’ Trophy, allowing a league-low 197 goals, 34 fewer than last year and 25 fewer than any other team this season. Nelson logged a career-high 1,591:55 in total ice time and nearly 50% more shorthanded minutes. Colorado’s penalty kill led the NHL at 84.6%, surrendering just 36 goals on 234 opportunities. Nelson also set personal bests in faceoffs taken (1,459) and wins (735, 50.4%). If he wins, he’d become the first player in Avalanche/Nordiques history to claim the Selke, the last Colorado player to reach finalist status was Joe Sakic in 2000–01.
Suzuki, the Canadiens’ captain, helped Montreal win its highest point total (106) since 2014–15 and its stingiest defensive season (251 goals against) in seven years. He played all 82 games, leading the team’s forwards in total ice time and even-strength minutes. Suzuki took 1,449 faceoffs (32.2% of Montreal’s draws) and ranked sixth in the league in total attempts. At even strength, the Canadiens outscored opponents 94–58 with him on the ice, a career-best 61.8% goal share. Suzuki aims to join franchise legends Bob Gainey and Guy Carbonneau, who won the award seven times.
The Selke Trophy was first awarded in 1977 in honor of longtime executive Frank J. Selke, a key architect of championship teams in both Montreal and Toronto.
The NHL’s awards finalist announcements continue Thursday, May 7, when the league will reveal the three finalists for the James Norris Memorial Trophy.
Lightning Notes: Raddysh, Kucherov, O’Reilly
The Tampa Bay Lightning have a pivotal offseason ahead of them as they look to rebound after a fourth consecutive first-round series loss, and one of the key situations they have to manage is the pending unrestricted free agency of defenseman Darren Raddysh. In his exit day media availability, GM Julien Brisebois said (via the Tampa Bay Times’ Eduardo A. Encina) that he has “already reached out to” Raddysh’s agent, Craig Oster of Newport. Brisebois said he and Oster have “been in touch throughout the second half of the year, just sharing concepts, ideas” on what a contract extension might look like.
Raddysh has lined himself up to receive a massive pay raise this summer. In a free agent market notably thin on difference-making talent, Raddysh is the best defenseman, and arguably best overall player, set to be available. He took over for Victor Hedman as Tampa’s top power play option and No. 1 defenseman, producing 22 goals and 70 points in 73 games. As a 30-year-old undrafted player, he’s set to receive a life-changing contract at some point this summer. Based on what Brisebois said today, it appears the Lightning are hoping that contract comes from them.
Other notes from Tampa Bay:
- Brisebois also addressed the future of future Hall of Fame forward Nikita Kucherov, who is set to enter the final year of his contract in 2026-27. He said of Kucherov: “I foresee him staying in our organization for a very long time,” and added that he will, “in due time,” engage with Kucherov’s agent on extension talks. Kucherov is repped by Dan Milstein of Gold Star Hockey. The 32-year-old scored 44 goals and 130 points in the regular season, and produced six points in seven postseason contests.
- Lightning prospect Sam O’Reilly was named the winner of the Red Tilson Trophy today, an honor awarded to the OHL’s Most Outstanding Player. The 2024 first-rounder, 20, scored 71 points in 56 games this season, and had 22 points in 14 playoff games. He was acquired by the Lightning from the Edmonton Oilers this past summer in the deal that sent Ike Howard to Alberta. Brisebois hinted today at a belief that O’Reilly may already be close to NHL-ready, saying the prospect “probably won’t need that much time in order to be able to come here and contribute.”
Victor Hedman Announces Leave Of Absence Was For Mental Health
Tampa Bay Lightning captain Victor Hedman revealed in a statement published Tuesday morning that over the past several months, he stepped away from the team for mental health reasons. A portion of his statement reads:
Over the past couple of months, I made the decision to step away and focus on my mental health. It was not an easy decision, but it was the right one.
I’ve always believed that being a leader means doing what’s best for the team. In this case, it also meant doing what was necessary to take care of myself, so I can be the best player, teammate, husband and father I expect to be.
I’ve been fortunate to have strong support from my family, my teammates and the organization, my therapist and I’m in a much better place today.
Hedman’s statement can be read in full here. Hedman originally took his leave of absence on March 25, with the Lightning simply stating that it was for “personal reasons.” He last played March 19, leaving a win over the Vancouver Canucks early due to what was originally reported as an illness. Head coach Jon Cooper said at the time, per Eduardo A. Encina of the Tampa Bay Times, that Hedman “wasn’t feeling well.”
Tampa’s captain is a player who requires no introduction. He is one of the defining blueliners of his generation: a two-time Stanley Cup champion, a Conn Smythe Trophy winner, a Norris Trophy winner, and a six-time Norris Trophy finalist overall. His 1,164 career games played and 811 career points are both the most by a defenseman in franchise history. He is a zero-doubt future Hockey Hall of Fame inductee and someone who will rank as one of the top blueliners in the recent history of the game.
A few days ago, Cooper told the media, including The Athletic’s Pierre LeBrun, that Hedman would be an option for the team “really soon.” He ended up not being able to return to the lineup as the Lightning’s season ended in game seven against the Montreal Canadiens. But the hope will be that Hedman’s progress can allow him to return to the ice next year.
Hedman is not alone as a player who has taken a leave of absence to focus on mental health. Ottawa Senators netminder Linus Ullmark took a leave of absence earlier this season, while other players such as Oliver Kylington and Jonathan Drouin have done the same in years past.
Maple Leafs Denied Permission To Interview Julien BriseBois
Although the reported group of final candidates doesn’t strike much inspiration, it’s now safe to say the Toronto Maple Leafs attempted to go big-game hunting for their GM vacancy. According to Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman, the Maple Leafs requested to interview Tampa Bay Lightning General Manager Julien BriseBois, but were quickly denied.
Frankly, it’s not surprising at all that Toronto was denied permission to interview BriseBois. As Friedman put it, “I don’t think anyone is shocked to hear that the Lightning would say no. I do think they asked permission to speak to him and were rejected.”
BriseBois, 49, has been the front office leader for the Lightning since the 2018-19 season, after Steve Yzerman stepped down from the role. Inarguably, three of the most important players on the team were drafted by Yzerman: Nikita Kucherov, Andrei Vasilevskiy, and Brayden Point. Still, that’s not to say that BriseBois has only been coasting off Yzerman’s success. He was the one who acquired Brandon Hagel, Jake Guentzel, and J.J. Moser, among others.
Regardless of which General Manager ultimately had the bigger hand in the team’s success, BriseBois was the General Manager of the team during their back-to-back Stanley Cup championships in 2020 and 2021. Because of that, he’s one of the most successful General Managers in the NHL, rivaled only by Bill Zito of the Florida Panthers. Given his track record, there’s no questioning why the Maple Leafs would be interested in bringing him on board.
Now, since they were rejected by the Lightning and potentially rejected by additional teams to speak with their front office leaders, the Maple Leafs appear headed for a split role. Reports suggest that Toronto is actively pursuing John Chayka and franchise legend Mats Sundin for higher management roles. Instead of having one man to lead the pack, the Maple Leafs may opt for a combined effort.
Injury Notes: Hayton, McBain, Paul, Ehlers, Nikishin
There could be some alterations to the Mammoth’s forward group as they look to stave off elimination at home in Game 6 tonight against the Golden Knights. Center Barrett Hayton returned to the lineup for Game 5 after missing over a month with an upper-body injury, but he’s been downgraded to a game-time decision for tonight as he continues to be on a pain management regimen, head coach Andre Tourigny said (via Cole Bagley of KSL Sports). Hayton played a minimal role in Wednesday’s double overtime loss, logging 12:49 of ice time as he shifted to the wing on the fourth line with Kevin Stenlund and Brandon Tanev. He had a -1 rating and went 6-for-14 (42.9%) on faceoffs. As for McBain, he missed time down the stretch with a lower-body injury before returning for Game 1, although he hasn’t played since. It’s unclear if he reaggravated that one or if it’s a different ailment keeping him out. The regular season saw McBain, 26, produce nine goals and 25 points in 75 games with a team-leading 271 hits in a bottom-six role.
More lineup notes from around the league as the first round nears a close:
- Lightning center Nick Paul was a late scratch for their Game 5 loss due to illness. However, his absence will end there as Renaud Lavoie of TVA reports he’s back in the lineup for Game 6. With Tampa trailing 3-2 and facing a fourth consecutive first-round elimination, Paul has yet to record a point in the series and has a -2 rating after a wildly disappointing regular season that saw his ice time slashed en route to posting a 7-8–15 scoring line and a -15 rating in 51 games.
- Nikolaj Ehlers wasn’t on hand for the Hurricanes when they dispatched the Senators in a sweep last weekend. After a long rest, Carolina’s second-round tilt against the Flyers will get underway tomorrow. Today, head coach Rod Brind’Amour said it “looks like” Ehlers will be available after missing Game 4 against Ottawa with a lower-body injury (via Walt Ruff of NHL.com) – along with defenseman Alexander Nikishin, who left that contest due to a concussion. Despite averaging over 20 minutes per game, Ehlers had been limited to one assist through his first three playoff outings as a Cane. His checking line with Jordan Staal and Jordan Martinook was spectacular at controlling play, however, logging a 62.2% expected goals share, per MoneyPuck. Meanwhile, the rookie Nikishin was held without a point in the series but eked out a +1 rating while averaging 16:31 of ice time per game.