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Atlantic Notes: Senators’ Youth, Walker, Howard, Nelson

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The Ottawa Senators seem to have little go right over the last year or so, whether it was the unhappiness of their star defenseman Erik Karlsson to the Matt Duchene trade in which the team traded away their No. 1 overall pick for next season to Colorado. With the team shipping off players left and right, that pick could be a costly one for the team.

However, the Ottawa Sun’s Ken Warren writes that who the Senators need to look at the success of the New Jersey Devils last season had when they opted to add a struggling team with youth. Just a season ago, the Devils had a 28-40-14 season and just 70 points. However, New Jersey brought in an infusion of youth, including Nico Hischier, Jesper Bratt, Will Butcher, as well as second-year players like Miles Wood and Pavel Zacha. That group altered the makeup of the struggling franchise and turned last season into a 44-29-9 season for 97 points, an increase of 27 points on the year. The team even qualified for the playoffs.

The Senators, who are actually loaded with quality prospects within their system, could get a similar infusion from their prospects. That possibility might start with 2018 first-rounder Brady Tkachuk, who opted to turn pro last week and has a chance to walk right into the Senators lineup. The team has other young players who are ready for full seasons this year, including Colin White, Logan Brown, Thomas Chabot, Filip Chlapik and Drake Batherson. The team also has last year’s second-round pick Alex Formenton, who made the Senators squad out of training camp last year, who could also make the jump this year. Some success from some of those kids could make people forget a little about some of the franchise’s struggles.

  • Former Toronto Maple Leafs enforcer Kurt Walker passed away Friday night at the age of 64 after a brief illness, according to the Toronto Sun’s Lance Hornby. Walker, who might have been better known after his short NHL career, was an advocate for retired NHL players. His efforts nearly a decade ago helped retired players and opened doors for affordable health care, concussion research on NHL retired players and stem-cell research. Walker played three seasons in the NHL, all for the Maple Leafs, playing in 71 games, tallying four goals, five assists and 152 penalty minutes.
  • Mlive’s Ansar Khan writes that the Detroit Red Wings need a solid year out of 34-year-old goaltender Jimmy Howard, who has one year remaining on his contract. Howard started the 2017-18 season strong, but struggled in the second-half of the season, finishing the year with a 2.85 GAA and a .910 save percentage in 60 games. The team may have to lighten his workload now that the team added Jonathan Bernier, but if Howard will have to have a better year to earn another contract with the team. Khan writes the team might want to give him a two-year extension as they lack goalie prospects in their system.
  • The Buffalo News’ Mike Harrington writes that Buffalo Sabres defensive prospect Casey Nelson has a good chance at breaking camp with the Sabres this year because he now requires Buffalo to pass him through waivers to send him to the AHL. Nelson, has played 55 games for Buffalo over the past three years and showed some promise last year, putting up three goals and eight assists in 37 games. However, because the team could conceivably lose him if they attempt to pass him through waivers, they may be more likely to hold onto him and send other prospects like Brendan Guhle to the AHL since he doesn’t require waivers.

Influx Of Foreign Talent A Trend In 2018 Off-Season

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While the NHL free agent market remains flush with talented veteran players, some now beginning to depart for Europe without any leads around the league, NHL teams have quietly imported a fair amount of foreign talent this off-season. While few of these players are stars or even surefire regulars at the NHL level, the fact remains that those on two-way deals slated for depth roles are nevertheless taking those jobs from the current remnants of the market, who at this point would gladly take an AHL assignment with upside. Teams clearly have felt this off-season that taking a chance on a promising foreign player was a better use of a contract than recycling aging domestic veterans. A total of 36 players who played in Europe last season are now headed to North America, where they will suit up for 24 different organizations – showing the popularity of importing talent this off-season. Here are the foreign free agent signings this summer:

D Ilya Lyubushkin (Arizona Coyotes)
F David Ullstrom (Arizona Coyotes)
F Martin Bakos (Boston Bruins)
D Lawrence Pilut (Buffalo Sabres)
F Yasin Ehliz (Calgary Flames)
D Marcus Hogstrom (Calgary Flames)
F Saku Maenalanen (Carolina Hurricanes)
F Dominik Kahun (Chicago Blackhawks)
G Kevin Lankinen (Chicago Blackhawks)
F Jacob Nilsson (Chicago Blackhawks)
G Pavel Francouz (Colorado Avalanche)
F Valeri Nichushkin (Dallas Stars)*
G Patrik Rybar (Detroit Red Wings)
G Mikko Koskinen (Edmonton Oilers)
D Joel Persson (Edmonton Oilers)
D Bogdan Kiselevich (Florida Panthers)
F Ilya Kovalchuk (Los Angeles Kings)
D Eric Martinsson (Minnesota Wild)
D Michal Moravcik (Montreal Canadiens)
D David Sklenicka (Montreal Canadiens)
F Carl Persson (Nashville Predators)
D Filip Pyrochta (Nashville Predators)
G Miroslav Svoboda (Nashville Predators)
D Egor Yakovlev (New Jersey Devils)
F Jan Kovar (New York Islanders)
D Yannick Rathgeb (New York Islanders)
F Michael Lindqvist (New York Rangers)
F Ville Meskanen (New York Rangers)
D Juuso Riikola (Pittsburgh Penguins)
F Lukas Radil (San Jose Sharks)
F Antti Suomela (San Jose Sharks)
F Par Lindholm (Toronto Maple Leafs)
D Igor Ozhiganov (Toronto Maple Leafs)
F Brooks Macek (Vegas Golden Knights)
F Juuso Ikonen (Washington Capitals)
F Maximilian Kammerer (Washington Capitals)
F Dennis Everberg (Winnipeg Jets)

While the obvious highlight of this list is the return of Kovalchuk, inking a substantial deal with the L.A. Kings, the rest are far more than just AHL placeholders. Nichushkin, albeit not a true free agent signing since his rights never left the Stars, is back in Dallas and looking to make an impact. Koskinen is set to be the primary backup to Cam Talbot in Edmonton and, while his role was muddied somewhat by the acquisition of Philipp Grubauer, Francouz is sure to see some action in net with Colorado. Kovar was brought in to be a starter in New York, while Ullstrom – a former Islander – will push for a roster spot with Arizona. After a couple of years abroad, Everberg is back in the league and hoping to find a role in Winnipeg. If Simon Despres, on a PTO with the Montreal Canadiens, earns a contract, he could make a difference as well.

Several more of these players could wind up winning spots in training camp battles, while even more will earn call-ups throughout the year. It is an extensive list and each and every name bears watching as they begin or continue their North American pro careers. Both the risk and upside of bringing over fresh, foreign talent versus sticking with experienced yet stagnant veterans is apparent. For some teams these gambles will fail, while others may find a diamond in the rough.

 

“A Lot Of Doubt” Still Surrounds Henrik Zetterberg’s Future

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Reports have surfaced every few weeks this summer that Detroit Red Wings captain Henrik Zetterberg may not play in the 2018-19 season due to a lingering back injury, and last week GM Ken Holland muddied the water even further. Holland called Zetterberg an “unknown” when speaking to reporters, and indicated he would know more in September. That timeline is what head coach Jeff Blashill repeated to Ted Kulfan of the Detroit News, but seemed even less confident in Zetterberg’s ability to play this season:

He’s had a hard summer and I don’t think his back is reacting great. Certainly we’ll know more in a month, but as of today, there’s a lot of doubt as to whether his back will be healthy enough to play.

If Zetterberg does sit out the year, the Red Wings could put his $6.08MM cap hit on long-term injured reserve to create some more cap flexibility. The actual salary of his deal drops to just $3.35MM this season, and the contract will pay him just $1MM in each of the next two years. That seems like quite the coincidence given that Zetterberg hasn’t missed a regular season game in three straight seasons, but Blashill was quick to point out that his captain was also forced to stop practicing entirely for the last two months of the 2017-18 season.

From 1990-91 to 2015-16 the Red Wings never missed the postseason, and Zetterberg played a crucial role in many of those seasons. He, Pavel Datsyuk and Nicklas Lidstrom formed the core of a powerhouse team for years, until the latter’s retirement in 2012. Now having missed the postseason in back to back years, the Red Wings will try to form a new young core of players like Dylan Larkin, Filip Zadina and Anthony Mantha to get them back to the promised land and compete for the Stanley Cup once again. It never seemed like Zetterberg could be a real part of that, even without a career-threatening injury popping up. The 37-year old has seen his offensive numbers decline in recent years, to the point of just scoring 11 goals last season. That was the lowest full-season total of his career, and one that the team should be able to replace.

They won’t as easily replace his leadership though, which will put even more pressure on Larkin to develop into a true first-line center. Without that the Red Wings could be in for a tough season, given their cap problems and lack of real elite talent throughout the lineup.

If it is the end for Zetterberg, he would be leaving the game with 960 career points in 1,082 regular season games. The veteran forward has been in Selke contention for nearly his entire career as one of the better defensive forwards in the league, and took home a Conn Smythe trophy during the Red Wings 2008 Stanley Cup run. Undoubtedly one of the most well-respected and beloved Red Wings players in history, this would be a tough way to see his career come to an end.

Zach Werenski On Track To Be Ready For Season

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Considering Zach Werenski played with an injured shoulder for almost the entire 2017-18 season, imagine how good he could be if he is at 100% for all of the upcoming campaign. That is the goal for the young Blue Jackets blue liner, who recently sat down with Columbus beat writer Brian Hedger. Werenski continues to recover from off-season surgery, but says that his goal is to “be there for Game 1”.

Werenski suffered the injury of note all the way back on October 30th, 2017. The sophomore defenseman nevertheless played in 77 games and recorded 37 points, even though he played with a brace for much of the year. Werenski then underwent corrective surgery in early May and had his left arm immobilized for much of the summer. However, the 2015 eighth overall pick is already ahead of schedule in his rehab and training. Columbus GM Jarmo Kekalainen shared a recovery timeline back in June that assumed Werenski would miss most of training camp, but the young defender tells Hedger that he hopes to back toward the start of training camp. Werenski has already begun shooting drills and is essentially back to his regular off-season training minus taking any contact. While the offensive rearguard is obviously motivated to be ready for the season for his teammates, coaches, and fans, he also admits to Hedger that playing in the teams opener, a road game against the Detroit Red Wings in his home state of Michigan, is an added personal boost. “Suffer now, but I’m going to be able to play in my hometown in front of my family and friends ” has been Werenski’s mantra this summer and so far things seem to be going well.

Should Werenski suffer even a small setback that leaves him unable to start the season, the Blue Jackets are less equipped to deal with his absence than they would have been last year. With Jack Johnson, Ian Cole, and even others like Taylor Chorney now gone via free agency, Columbus is relatively thin on the blue line after their superstar young pairing of Werenski and Seth Jones. Ryan Murray or Markus Nutivaara would likely be the replacement on the top pair with Jones while the other skates with David Savard, leaving the Jackets with a bottom pair featuring two of Scott Harrington, Gabriel Carlsson, Dean Kukan or new addition Adam Clendening. Count the Blue Jackets as being right there with Werenski in hopes that he is able to go from day one.

Over The Cap: Detroit Red Wings

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Although the St. Louis Blues are dangerously close to the salary cap ceiling and the defending Stanley Cup champs of the past three years, the Washington Capitals and Pittsburgh Penguins, are within an uncomfortable distance, the Detroit Red Wings are the only team who have surpassed the NHL’s $79.5MM limit at this point in time. When the team re-signed franchise center Dylan Larkin to a five-year, $30.5MM contract last week, his $6.1MM  salary boosted Detroit’s payroll for the coming season to $82.772MM for just 21 players. The Red Wings currently sit more than $3.2MM over the salary cap with a roster that contains just six defenseman. While the NHL CBA allows teams to surpass the cap by 10% in the off-season – up to $87.45MM – the Red Wings must clear enough space to begin the season under the cap.

Once the season is underway, the salary cap is unlikely to be much of an issue. Johan Franzen, who last played in October of 2015, has been sidelined with post-concussion symptoms for the past three seasons and is almost surely not going to return to the Detroit lineup. His $3.955MM contract on the long-term injured reserve will wipe out all of the Red Wings’ cap overages. Additionally, it remains a very real possibility that captain Henrik Zetterberg may also be on the shelf this year and possibly done with his hockey career altogether, with a nagging back injury reportedly making his availability over the final two years of his contract an “unknown”.  If Zetterberg doesn’t play, his $6MM cap hit added to Franzen’s on LTIR would give the Wings more than enough space.

However, injured reserve transactions cannot be made until after the official start of the NHL season. This has previously caused teams to trade away players unlikely to ever play again due to health, with the Chicago Blackhawks’ Marian Hossa as the latest example, even though their cap hits can be absorbed. A team tight against the cap, like Detroit, may struggle to manipulate their roster enough to fit those injured players under the cap on day one. As such, the easiest way that the team could get under the cap prior to the start of the season would be to find a taker for Franzen’s contract. The Wings would have to part with a pick or prospect, but may be able to unload the deal to a team far from the cap ceiling. If Detroit is certain that Zetterberg is also done, they could do the same with his contract, although a higher cap hit means parting with greater trade capital.

Barring an injured player salary dump, the Red Wings are likely left with the reality that they must trade a roster player in the next two months. The team may be able to sneak players like Martin Frk and Luke Witkowski through waivers before the season begins, but it would not result in enough savings to make a difference. Detroit would be unlikely to expose anyone else to waivers simply to clear space briefly. As such, it appears as if someone must go. While Red Wings fans and leadership alike might like the idea of shipping an aging defenseman like Niklas Kronwall or Jonathan Ericsson away or trying to sweet talk some team into taking on the behemoth contract of Frans Nielsen or Justin Abdelkader, it would be a surprise to see any team with interest in that foursome. The likes of Danny DeKeyser and Trevor Daley may also be immovable for a team rife with poor contracts. Instead, impending free agent Gustav Nyquist or two-way center Darren Helm are the most likely candidates, while a player like Luke Glendening heading elsewhere paired with some clever waiver action could do the trick. There is also a chance that, if he proves to be healthy, some team might be interested in Zetterberg.

It’s never a great situation for a team to be forced into trading away assets simply to become cap compliant for one day, but trading away an older player would nevertheless be a step in the right direction for a team that has never truly embraced a rebuild. Opening up salary with a trade, as well as an LTIR placement for Franzen, would allow the Red Wings some flexibility to test out some young players this season while building around their established young core, headlined by Larkin. The salary cap crunch could prove to be their ally long-term, but in the short-term the team is left with little option but to make a move and hope for the best.

Atlantic Notes: Red Wings, Krug, Reinhart, Kotkaniemi

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With the last piece of major housekeeping completed in Detroit after the Red Wings signed star Dylan Larkin to a five-year, $30.5MM deal, the team now has to take a look at their salary cap, which they will be over, even after they move forward Johan Franzen to LTIR. General manager Ken Holland told The Athletic’s Craig Custance, they will likely be “in the neighborhood” of $1MM over the cap.

“We’re very tight,” Holland said on Friday of the cap situation. “With this deal, we’re probably a dribble over. Not a lot, but we’re over. We’re going to have to make some decisions moving forward.”

One possibility would be to bury the contracts of Martin Frk and Luke Witkowski in the minors. However, if the team believes that veteran Henrik Zetterberg could end up missing the season as his injuries haven’t improved this summer, the team could place him on LTIR as well and wouldn’t have anything else to worry about. Custance adds, however, that if Zetterberg does return, that likely would end the chances of 2018 first-round pick Filip Zadina of making the roster out of training camp.

  • In a mailbag series, Joe Haggerty of NBC Sports writes that with eight quality NHL defenseman on the roster, the team will likely make a trade before the season starts. The team has Torey Krug, Zdeno Chara, Adam McQuaid, John Moore, Kevan Miller, Matt Grzelcyk, Charlie McAvoy and Brandon Carlo on the roster. The scribe writes that could mean that the team might be ready to move Krug if the team can get a big return for the blueliner. And they would need to, as Krug is one of the top offensive defensemen in the league as only Erik Karlsson, Victor Hedman, Brent Burns and John Klingberg have more points over the last two seasons. He has 22 goals and 110 points combined in that time.
  • The Athletic’s Ryan Stimson (subscription required) wonders where restricted free agent Sam Reinhart should play next year in the Buffalo Sabres’ lineup once he signs. The 22-year-old center has been a decent center for the Sabres in the past, but saw his game blossom once he was moved up and played on the wing next to top-line center Jack Eichel. With the team moving on from Ryan O’Reilly and bringing in prospect Casey Mittelstadt, what should the team do with Reinhart? The scribe breaks down Reinhart’s game and wonders if it would be best for the youngster to take over the team’s No. 2 center position and ease Mittelstadt in.
  • The Athletic’s Mitch Brown (subscription required) ranks the Montreal Canadiens’ top five prospects with 2018 third-overall pick Jesperi Kotkaniemi listed as their top prospect. The young centerman, who flew up the draft boards in the final weeks, anchors a list of prospects that Brown believes is the most exciting in the last five or six years. He has been successful playing in the SM-liiga as an 18-year-old and is expected to fill that long-waited hole in the middle.

Red Wings Could Look To Move Trevor Daley Near The Trade Deadline

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  • With the Red Wings expected to struggle next season, MLive’s Ansar Khan suggests that the team could look to move defenseman Trevor Daley around the trade deadline. The 34-year-old wouldn’t be a pure rental as he’s signed through 2019-20 but his offensive skill set and mobility could be enough for a contending team to be willing to take on the extra year of his deal.

Poll: Which 2014 Draft Pick Would You Rather Have On Your Team?

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Dylan Larkin hit the news today when he inked a five-year, $30.5MM ($6.1MM AAV) contract with the Detroit Red Wings which will take him to unrestricted free agency in the summer of 2023. That will be nearly a decade since he was drafted 15th overall in 2014, a year that is still recent enough to not be able to make clear definitions of the players taken in the first round. Aaron Ekblad was the first-overall selection that year and has turned into a very good defenseman for the Florida Panthers, though has been slowed in recent seasons by head and neck injuries. Leon Draisaitl was the third-overall pick and quickly established himself as a pillar of the contender that the Edmonton Oilers were trying to build, signing an eight-year $68MM contract last summer. Sam Reinhart and Sam Bennett were second and fourth respectively and have been underwhelming, though the former will now be surrounded by the best supporting cast he’s seen since joining the Buffalo Sabres.

Lower down in the first round though there is a group of forwards that are constantly compared. Larkin is included in this group, which also stars William Nylander (8th overall), Nikolaj Ehlers (9th), and David Pastrnak (25th). Nick Schmaltz (20th) may be soon included in any comparison, but has only just finished his first full season in the NHL. Other forwards around this part of the draft lag significantly behind in point totals, but these four have all already established themselves as key parts of their team’s offense. Pastrnak leads the way with a 0.80 points/game rate, while Nylander falls in just behind him at 0.73. Ehlers signed a seven-year extension with the Jets last fall which is about to kick in and pays him an average of $6MM for the next seven years. Pastrnak, who stepped almost directly into the NHL, inked a six-year deal a year ago which pays him $6.67MM per season. He proceeded to record an 80-point campaign in the first year of it, immediately making him a bargain for the Bruins.

Nylander is the last of the group to be signed long-term, and the Toronto Maple Leafs now find themselves at something of a crossroads. With Larkin’s deal coming in shorter and more expensive than Ehlers’ extension, the Maple Leafs are likely looking at something more akin to Pastrnak’s deal. It could very well even eclipse that $6.67MM number if the team tries to buy out several UFA seasons, which the Red Wings were only able to secure one of with Larkin. Though Nylander has made it clear he wants to sign a long-term deal with the Maple Leafs, the team might be forced into a bridge deal just so they can fit all of their young talent in alongside John Tavares’ huge free agent deal.

Since these four are so closely linked and compensated, there is an obvious question that arises. Who would you rather have on your team? Though Pastrnak has the upper hand in point production at the moment, he’s also been able to play on a line with some of the best in the league in Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand. Only Larkin plays center with any consistency, though Nylander has spent time there in the past. The added defensive responsibility in the middle might make him a better choice to build a team around, though he has lagged behind offensively through his first few seasons. Ehlers comes with three years of UFA status already purchased, and likely will have the lowest cap hit of the bunch. His $6MM cap hit is more than reasonable now, and should be a bargain as the cap continues to grow.

Cast your vote below for the player you would want most, including the contract situation they now come with. Make sure to leave your explanation in the comment section below.

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Snapshots: Gionta, Larkin, Berestnev

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Brian Gionta is still staying in shape in case a desirable contract falls into his lap, but doesn’t really like the idea of moving his kids around the country at this point in his career. Gionta spoke with Dave Stubbs of NHL.com, and explained that he’s instead looking at “non-playing hockey options” for the 2018-19 season. After captaining the US Olympic team and then signing for the end of the season with the Boston Bruins, Gionta may be finished with a playing career that lasted over 1,000 NHL games.

An extremely consistent two-way player, Gionta had an incredible career at Boston College winning the Hockey East title three times in four years and taking home a National Championship in 2001. His captaincy that season for BC would prepare him for the role he would be given in Montreal and Buffalo later in his career, after winning the Stanley Cup with the New Jersey Devils. A extremely well-respected player around the league, Gionta will likely finish his career with 595 points in 1,026 games and could be in line for a coaching role almost immediately.

  • Speaking of captains, Luke Fox of Sportsnet suggests that the path is now open for Dylan Larkin to be named captain of the Detroit Red Wings. After signing a five-year deal today, Larkin becomes the highest-paid player on the team eclipsing current captain Henrik Zetterberg, who may not even play this season (or ever again). If Larkin were to get a “C” on his sweater, he would follow a run that saw just three Red Wings players hold the honor over the last three decades. Zetterberg, Nicklas Lidstrom and Steve Yzerman have held the position since 1986, creating quite immense footsteps for the young forward to walk in.
  • The Val-d’Or Foreurs of the QMJHL will have super talented Daniil Berestnev on the team in 2018-19, taking one of their international roster spots. Berestnev was the seventh-overall pick in the most recent import draft, and will try to improve his stock for the 2019 Entry Draft with a good showing in North America. The 17-year old winger scored 62 points in just 38 games last season, putting him fourth in the U17 Russian league. Berestnev wasn’t included in the recent Hlinka-Gretzky tournament for Russia, but will get a chance at the CHL level to prove himself.

Henrik Zetterberg Still An “Unknown” For 2018-19 Season

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Just as Detroit Red Wings fans were celebrating a new contract for Dylan Larkin, GM Ken Holland once again muddied the waters on whether the team will have their captain for next season. Speaking on a conference call about Larkin’s contract, Holland told media including Helene St. James of the Detroit Free Press that Zetterberg is still an unknown for 2018-19 and has had trouble training this offseason:

I am anxious to know where Henrik Zetterberg is at. He’s a bit of an unknown as far as health. Have talked to his agent – he has had tough summer. He hasn’t been able to train anywhere near where at past summers. I’m hoping he’ll play.

Holland indicated that he would know more in September, but that if Zetterberg can’t play it does help the team’s cap issues that were created by Larkin’s $6.1MM average annual value. Obviously the team is hoping for the legendary forward to be healthy enough to play, but this is just the latest example of doubt that has been cast on his upcoming season.

Skeptics might look at this and question whether Zetterberg is truly too injured to play, given the coincidental decrease in salary he’s set to earn this season. After collecting at least $7MM in each of the first nine years of his current contract, the salary owed to him drops to just $3.35MM this season and $1MM for each of the next two. If Zetterberg retired the Red Wings would be on the hook for cap recapture penalties given the discrepancy of salary, a hit that couldn’t be moved to long-term injured reserve in order to give the team more flexibility. Remember that Zetterberg himself admitted last summer that the last two seasons of his contract were added to reduce the overall cap hit before rules were put in place to close that loophole. While the Detroit captain eventually walked back those comments some will still point to the timing of this injury as questionable.

Even though Zetterberg has played in all 82 games the last three seasons though, there have been multiple reports that a back injury has limited him for some time. Craig Custance of The Athletic (subscription required) relays a report from one source who said it was hard to watch Zetterberg even put on his skates given his injury. The 37-year old forward recorded just 11 goals in 2017-18, matching the lowest total in his entire career (and that came in a lockout-shortened season). Even if he did play, there’s no guarantee he would be effective on the ice, though he still was a positive possession player last season.

If he doesn’t play, Zetterberg’s $6.08MM cap hit could be added to Johan Franzen on long-term injured reserve, giving the Red Wings plenty of flexibility going forward. Even with that added benefit though, it would be tough to watch another one of the NHL’s greats simply fade into irrelevance while still under contract and not have a proper retirement ceremony for several seasons.

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