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Who Is On Pace To Score 60 Points In 2017-18?

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In 2016-17, only 42 NHLers hit the 60-point benchmark for the season. It was the lowest total since the 2012-13 lockout-shortened season (obviously), when only Martin St. Louis notched sixty, and down eleven from the 53 players who hit the mark two years earlier in 2014-15. However, with scoring up this season in the NHL, will the league increase it’s number of top scorers? Or will a greater depth and distribution of talent continue to limit players from reaching the high numbers of yesteryear?

As of now, with the 2017 segment of the season about to close, here are the players on pace for 60 points in 2017-18:

  1. Nikita Kucherov, Tampa Bay Lightning – Currently: 54 points in 37 games, Projection: 120 points
  2. Steven Stamkos, Tampa Bay Lightning – Currently: 48 points in 37 games, Projection: 107 points
  3. John Tavares, New York Islanders – Currently: 49 points in 38 games, Projection: 106 points
  4. Josh Bailey, New York Islanders – Currently: 49 points in 38 games, Projection: 106 points
  5. Jakub Voracek, Philadelphia Flyers – Currently: 46 points in 38 games, Projection: 99 points
  6. Claude Giroux, Philadelphia Flyers – Currently: 46 points in 38 games, Projection: 99 points
  7. Connor McDavid, Edmonton Oilers – Currently: 45 points in 38 games, Projection: 97 points
  8. Nathan MacKinnon, Colorado Avalanche – Currently: 43 points in 37 games, Projection: 95 points
  9. Blake Wheeler, Winnipeg Jets – Currently: 44 points in 39 games, Projection: 93 points
  10. Johnny Gaudreau, Calgary Flames – Currently: 41 points in 38 games, Projection: 89 points
  11. Phil Kessel, Pittsburgh Penguins – Currently: 41 points in 39 games, Projection: 86 points
  12. Alex Ovechkin, Washington Capitals – Currently: 41 points in 40 games, Projection: 84 points
  13. Anze Kopitar, Los Angeles Kings – Currently: 40 points in 39 games, Projection: 84 points
  14. Anders Lee, New York Islanders – Currently: 39 points in 38 games, Projection: 84 points
  15. Patrick Kane, Chicago Blackhawks – Currently: 38 points in 37 games, Projection: 84 points
  16. Brock Boeser*, Vancouver Canucks – Currently: 38 points in 36 games, Projection: 84 points
  17. Brayden Schenn, St. Louis Blues – Currently: 41 points in 41 games, Projection: 82 points
  18. Brad Marchand, Boston Bruins – Currently: 32 points in 29 games, Projection: 82 points
  19. Jon Marchessault, Vegas Golden Knights – Currently: 34 points in 33 games, Projection: 81 points
  20. Evgeny Kuznetsov, Washington Capitals – Currently: 39 points in 40 games, Projection: 80 points
  21. Taylor Hall, New Jersey Devils – Currently: 36 points in 36 games, Projection: 80 points
  22. Jonathan Huberdeau, Florida Panthers – Currently: 36 points in 38 games, Projection: 78 points
  23. Vincent Trocheck, Florida Panthers – Currently: 36 points in 38 games, Projection: 78 points
  24. Mathew Barzal*, New York Islanders – Currently: 36 points in 38 games, Projection: 78 points
  25. Sean Couturier, Philadelphia Flyers – Currently: 36 points in 38 games, Projection: 78 points
  26. Evgeni Malkin, Pittsburgh Penguins – Currently: 35 points in 35 games, Projection: 78 points
  27. Vladimir Tarasenko, St. Louis Blues – Currently: 38 points in 41 games, Projection: 76 points
  28. Jack Eichel, Buffalo Sabres – Currently: 35 points in 38 games, Projection: 75 points
  29. David Pastrnak, Boston Bruins – Currently: 34 points in 37 games, Projection: 75 points
  30. Mark Stone, Ottawa Senators – Currently: 34 points in 37 games, Projection: 75 points
  31. Brayden Point, Tampa Bay Lightning – Currently: 34 points in 37 games, Projection: 75 points
  32. Sidney Crosby, Pittsburgh Penguins – Currently: 35 points in 39 games, Projection: 74 points
  33. Jamie Benn, Dallas Stars – Currently: 35 points in 39 games, Projection: 74 points
  34. David Perron, Vegas Golden Knights – Currently: 29 points in 30 games, Projection: 74 points
  35. Evander Kane, Buffalo Sabres – Currently: 34 points in 38 games, Projection: 73 points
  36. Aleksander Barkov, Florida Panthers – Currently: 33 points in 37 games, Projection: 73 points
  37. Mikko Rantanen, Colorado Avalanche – Currently: 33 points in 37 games, Projection: 73 points
  38. Leon Draisaitl, Edmonton Oilers – Currently: 32 points in 34 games, Projection: 73 points
  39. Auston Matthews, Toronto Maple Leafs – Currently: 29 points in 29 games, Projection: 72 points
  40. Artemi Panarin, Columbus Blue Jackets – Currently: 34 points in 39 games, Projection: 71 points
  41. Tyler Seguin, Dallas Stars – Currently: 34 points in 39 games, Projection: 71 points
  42. Vlad Namestnikov, Tampa Bay Lightning – Currently: 32 points in 37 games, Projection: 71 points
  43. Eric Staal, Minnesota Wild – Currently: 33 points in 39 games, Projection: 70 points
  44. Ryan Getzlaf, Anaheim Ducks – Currently: 18 points in 15 games, Projection: 70 points
  45. Sean Monahan, Calgary Flames – Currently: 32 points in 38 games, Projection: 69 points
  46. Dylan Larkin, Detroit Red Wings – Currently: 31 points in 37 games, Projection: 69 points
  47. John Klingberg, Dallas Stars – Currently: 32 points in 39 games, Projection: 67 points
  48. William Karlsson, Vegas Golden Knights – Currently: 29 points in 36 games, Projection: 66 points
  49. Gabriel Landeskog, Colorado Avalanche – Currently: 28 points in 33 games, Projection: 66 points
  50. Shayne Gostisbehere, Philadelphia Flyers – Currently: 29 points in 35 games, Projection: 66 points
  51. Nicklas Backstrom, Washington Capitals – Currently: 31 points in 39 games, Projection: 65 points
  52. Alexander Radulov, Dallas Stars – Currently: 31 points in 39 games, Projection: 65 points
  53. Patrik Laine, Winnipeg Jets – Currently: 31 points in 39 games, Projection: 65 points
  54. Clayton Keller*, Arizona Coyotes – Currently: 31 points in 40 games, Projection: 64 points
  55. John Carlson, Washington Capitals – Currently: 31 points in 40 games, Projection: 64 points
  56. Reilly Smith, Vegas Golden Knights – Currently: 28 points in 36 games, Projection: 64 points
  57. Nikolaj Ehlers, Winnipeg Jets – Currently: 30 points in 39 games, Projection: 63 points
  58. P.K. Subban, Nashville Predators – Currently: 29 points in 38 games, Projection: 62 points
  59. Mats Zuccarello, New York Rangers – Currently: 29 points in 38 games, Projection: 62 points
  60. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Edmonton Oilers – Currently: 29 points in 38 games, Projection: 62 points
  61. Teuvo Teravainen, Carolina Hurricanes – Currently: 29 points in 38 games, Projection: 62 points
  62. Sebastian Aho, Carolina Hurricanes – Currently: 29 points in 38 games, Projection: 62 points
  63. James Neal, Vegas Golden Knights – Currently: 27 points in 36 games, Projection: 62 points
  64. Kyle Turris, Nashville Predators – Currently: 27 points in 34 games, Projection: 62 points
  65. Danton Heinen*, Boston Bruins – Currently: 26 points in 33 games, Projection: 62 points
  66. Drew Doughty, Los Angeles Kings – Currently: 29 points in 39 games, Projection: 61 points
  67. Dustin Brown, Los Angeles Kings – Currently: 29 points in 39 games, Projection: 61 points
  68. Mitch Marner, Toronto Maple Leafs – Currently: 29 points in 39 games, Projection: 61 points
  69. Jordan Eberle, New York Islanders – Currently: 28 points in 38 games, Projection: 61 points
  70. Joe Thornton, San Jose Sharks – Currently: 26 points in 35 games, Projection: 61 points
  71. Mikael Granlund, Minnesota Wild – 27 points in 34 games, Projection: 61 points
  72. Rickard Rakell, Anaheim Ducks – Currently: 27 points in 34 games, Projection: 61 points
  73. Tyler Johnson, Tampa Bay Lightning – Currently: 27 points in 36 games, Projection: 61 points
  74. Erik Haula, Vegas Golden Knights – Currently: 25 points in 32 games, Projection: 61 points
  75. Victor Hedman, Tampa Bay Lightning – Currently: 27 points in 37 games, Projection: 60 points
  76. Patrice Bergeron, Boston Bruins- Currently: 25 points in 32 games, Projection: 60 points
  77. Erik Karlsson, Ottawa Senators – Currently: 25 points in 32 games, Projection: 60 points

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Senators Preparing To Move Players

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Following a convincing 5-1 loss to the Boston Bruins last night – the same team they knocked out in the playoffs last season yet trail by 15 points in 2017-18 – the Ottawa Sun’s Bruce Garrioch writes that GM Pierre Dorion is ready to make some changes. It has been well reported to this point that the Senator’s struggles this season are real and, with the franchise’s future offering more questions than answers, there is a possibility of a fire sale and rebuild in the near future.

While earlier reports indicated that all-world defenseman Erik Karlsson may even be up for grabs, Garrioch says that Dorion has changed his tune, with the word being that Karlsson and young winger Mark Stone are the only untouchables on the Senators roster. Logic would dictate that promising rookies Thomas Chabot and Filip Chlapik are likely on that list as well, but the entire remainder of the roster could be up for grabs at the right price.

The shortlist offered up by Garrioch of the top trade bait includes winger Mike Hoffman, centers Derick Brassard and Jean-Gabriel Pageau and young defenseman Cody Ceci. While they might be harder to move, the team would surely like to get rid of Bobby Ryan and Dion Phaneuf as well. Of that group, the most intriguing name is definitely Hoffman, who by every metric is a top six scoring winger and would be of major interest to many teams across the league. While he may net the Senators a strong return, Hoffman is signed through 2020 at a reasonable $5.2MM and may be a player that Ottawa would regret moving on from.

Changes are coming to Ottawa. It could be a major trade tomorrow or it could be a series of smaller moves up until the Trade Deadline or perhaps even this off-season. However, Dorion is ready to make moves now and, with few pure sellers at this point in the season, the Senators will be a team to watch for the remainder of the 2017-18 campaign.

Atlantic Notes: Grzelcyk, Blashill, Karlsson

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With Boston defenseman Adam McQuaid nearing a return to the lineup, the Bruins will soon have a decision to make on their back end.  In order to make the roster and salary cap room to activate him off LTIR, the team will have to make a move.  On the surface, it would appear that blueliner Matt Grzelcyk, who is on recall from the minors, would be the logical one to go back down but Fluto Shinzawa of the Boston Globe argues that the 23-year-old has done enough to not only stay on the NHL roster but stay in the lineup when McQuaid gets the green light to suit up and suggests that going with seven rearguards may be the way to go for the time being.

Fortunately for the Bruins, they have several waiver-exempt forwards on the active roster which gives them some options to choose from but with McQuaid nearly ready to play, they’ll have to make a decision in the very near future.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic:

  • Although the Red Wings have come crashing down as of late, Ted Kulfan of the Detroit News believes it’s unlikely that a midseason coaching change is on the horizon. Instead, he expects the team to wait until after the season and make a decision on Jeff Blashill’s fate at that time as well as GM Ken Holland.  Holland’s contract is up at the end of the season so it may make more sense to make a decision on both their futures at the same time once April rolls around.
  • Senators defenseman Erik Karlsson is coming off a stellar performance on Saturday against Montreal and according to head coach Guy Boucher, he is right on target with their expectations when it comes to his recovery from offseason foot surgery. He told Postmedia’s Bruce Garrioch that they felt Karlsson wouldn’t be fully recovered until around the holiday break given the nature of the procedure and the fact he basically jumped into games with no training camp and minimal practice.  If Ottawa is to play themselves back into the postseason hunt, they’ll need their top blueliner at his best and it appears he’s getting closer to being just that.

What Your Team Is Thankful For: Ottawa Senators

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As the holiday season approaches, PHR will look at what teams are thankful for as the season nears the quarter point of completion. There also might be a few things your team would like down the road. We take a look at what’s gone well in the first month and what could improve as the season rolls on. So far we’ve covered the following teams:

Atlantic: BOS, BUF, DET, FLA, MON, TOR
Metropolitan: CAR, CBJ, NJD, NYI, NYR, PHI, PIT, WSH
Central: COL, MIN, NSH, STL
Pacific: ANA, ARZ, CGY, EDM, LAK, SJS, VAN, VGK

What are the Senators most thankful for?

They have to be thankful for that no matter how bad things have gotten in Ottawa in recent weeks, the Senators are only six points away from earning a playoff spot in the Atlantic Division. Shocking isn’t it. The Boston Bruins, currently holding the third playoff spot in the division, have 35 points, while Ottawa has 29 points with their 11-13-7 record. While that might require the team to actually win a few games, a sudden turnaround could easily have them competing for a playoff spot. The team might also be thankful for a solid performance at Saturday’s Centennial Classic where they shutout the Montreal Canadiens 3-0 in front of a national audience.

Who are the Senators most thankful for?

Several players are having solid seasons, but the play of Mark Stone has been solid this season. Even while on a current scoring drought (one goal in the past 13 games), he leads the team with 14 goals in 31 games, which should be an improvement over the 22 goals he had last season in 71 games. His defensive abilty is also a big plus on the ice. What’s even better is that he is just a restricted free agent next season, so the team has some remaining control of the 25 year old. In all likelihood, even if the team begins a rebuild, it’s likely Stone will be considered a part of that and wouldn’t be shipped off for picks or prospects.

What would the Senators be even more thankful for?

More than anything, the team needs to see some production from Matt Duchene. After trading away Kyle Turris, prospects and picks to win the Duchene sweepstakes, the 26-year-old center hasn’t improved the team’s offense at all and so far looks like the team may have made a mistake. He has six goals and nine assists in 31 games this season, but Duchene has put up just two goals and three assists in the 17 games that he’s been with the Senators. The team needs him to figure things out and begin leading a line that can put points on the board every night. It doesn’t help that the Nashville Predators addition of Turris only seems to have helped them. Turris has four goals and 13 assists in his 17 games with the Predators, which only makes the deal look worse.

What should be on the Senators Holiday Wish List?

The Senators have found themselves in the news for many things, but defenseman Erik Karlsson’s comments that he won’t take a hometown discount when he becomes an unrestricted free agent in 2019 didn’t sit well with many fans or their owner. In a perfect world, the Senators would find a way to recapture the magic they had a year ago and find a way to convince Karlsson to sign long-term and pay him what he’s worth. The question is what is the long-term plans for this franchise. Are they playing to win or should they blow up their team and rebuild for the future? A rebuild would go much quicker if they trade Karlsson, but finding a franchise defenseman isn’t an easy task either.

Metropolitan Notes: Hoffman, Lundqvist, Giroux, Hunwick

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The New York Islanders are doing everything they can to re-sign star forward John Tavares, which includes their attempt to build a new stadium, their hopes for a solid playoff run and now New York Posts’ Brett Cyrgalis writes that the team should consider taking advantage of the Ottawa Senators struggles and blow the team away with an offer for star defenseman Erik Karlsson.

The scribe writes that the Islanders are a perfect destination for the franchise defenseman, who recently told the press that he will not take a hometown discount after his contract expires in 2019. Many feel that the Senators nor their owner would want to pay as much as $11MM per year to retain him for the next eight seasons, especially after the team might be looking at a rebuild. Karlsson will be 29 when he is eligible to sign a new deal and if the team starts over again, there aren’t many good reasons to keep the star around. However, the Islanders are a team with assets and a will to win, especially if that might prove valuable to locking up Tavares.

Cyrgalis suggests the team offers top prospect Joshua Ho-Sang, one of the team’s 2018 first-rounders and second-rounders (they have two of each next year) and a few smaller pieces as the framework to the deal. The deal might vault the Islanders up a few pegs in the standings and create a dominant core of the future in New York.

  • Cyrgalis also wrote a piece about the amount of playing time that has been handed to New York Rangers goaltender Henrik Lundqvist. The goalie, who has played both ends of back-to-back games twice in the last two weeks, says he prefers it that way as the more he plays, the more relaxing it is mentally for him to play in the net. The 35-year-old does admit, however, it’s harder on him physically to play so many minutes. “Physically, it’s more challenging,” Lundqvist said. “But mentally, it’s easier, I find. The biggest part to the game is the mental aspect.”
  • Philly.com’s Marc Narducci writes that one reason the Philadelphia Flyers have improved could be the transition of Claude Giroux from center to left wing this season. Giroux has been paired with Sean Couturier this season on the team’s first line and while in many ways the transition to a wing spot has been a success, the 29-year-old admitted that it wasn’t that easy earlier this year. “I think it was an adjustment early on in the season,” Giroux said. “Now being on the wing the entire time, you get a little more comfortable on the wall or even in the neutral zone defensively.”
  • Pittsburgh Post-Gazette’s Jason Mackey writes that the play of Pittsburgh Penguins’ defenseman Matt Hunwick has actually improved since he suffered a concussion earlier this year. The 32-year-old blueliner signed with the team this offseason to provide defensive depth. He has been playing with the team since Nov. 18 after missing 15 games due to a concussion, but has actually played even better since missing time. He has three goals on the season since the concussion, most among Penguin defenders. Hunwick was a 42.6 percent possession player before the concussion, which has now increased to a 51.6 percent in the past 12 games and a 58.6 in the last five games. Unfortunately, that hasn’t translated well in the win column for the team, but it does make the team’s chances better.

Atlantic Notes: Hoffman, Kane, Red Wings Rebuild

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While a lot of talk about the Ottawa Senators currently revolves around defenseman Erik Karlsson, who will become a free agent in 2019 and expects top dollar, the Hockey News’ Lyle Richardson writes that a deal isn’t likely to happen any time soon as general manager Pierre Dorion still has hope that he can eventually work out an extension when the two parties can begin negotiating next July.

However, Richardson instead suggests the team might focus on moving some other pieces this season, especially pointing a finger at center Mike Hoffman. The 28-year-old will have two years remaining at 5.19MM AAV after this season, which increases his value. While his numbers are a little down (he’s only scored once in his last nine games), Hoffman is still in line for a solid 20-goal season as he currently has nine goals and 13 assists in 30 games. On top of that, he has put up 20 goals in each of his last three seasons.

Besides that, players such as Cody Ceci and Jean-Gabriel Pageau are other trade options, according to Richardson, but considering they are 23 and 25, respectively, the team may want to keep their youth if the goal is to rebuild the team. Bobby Ryan, Dion Phaneuf and Derick Brassard are also trade possibilities, but even less likely as all three have modified no-trade clauses and because of their high salaries, are unlikely to be going anywhere.

  • In the same article, Richardson writes the Buffalo Sabres are not likely to trade forward Evander Kane before the upcoming holiday trade freeze (Dec. 19 to 26). It’s more likely the team will make a move after that as they are still trying to raise his pricetag. The 26-year-old looks to be having a career year as he already has 31 points this season in 33 contests, nearly a point a game, along with 14 goals. Richardson writes that several teams are likely to bid on Kane, including the San Jose Sharks, the St. Louis Blues, the Anaheim Ducks and the Calgary Flames, although few of them are good fits.
  • Craig Custance of The Athletic (subscription required) compares the Toronto Maple Leafs roster and to the rebuilding plan of the Detroit Red Wings, pointing out where Detroit stands when it comes to building a franchise like the Maple Leafs. Custance writes that the obvious missing piece on the Red Wings is the lack of a superstar like Auston Matthews, but there some of the other pieces are present on the Red Wings roster. He compares Mitch Marner to that of Anthony Mantha, William Nylander to that of Dylan Larkin and Nazem Kadri to that of prospect Michael Rasussen and keeps going. Among many conclusions, Custance points out the lack of a superstar as well as the team’s need to grab a franchise-changing defenseman and goaltender, but feels Detroit might not be that far away if luck rolls their way.

Senators Notes: Boucher, Trade Talk, Karlsson, Neil

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Despite their considerable struggles as of late, the Senators will not be making a coaching change, GM Pierre Dorion told reporters at a press conference in advance of tonight’s game against the Rangers.  He did, however, acknowledge that he has been actively speaking to other teams in recent days, estimating that he has talked with 27 or 28 teams over the past 72 hours, via Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic (Twitter link).

Naturally, the discussion also included defenseman Erik Karlsson.  Speculation around him has grown in recent days, especially when it was made public that the team had asked for him to provide the teams for his no-trade clause (something they asked all of their other players with some form of no-trade protection).  Dorion stated (quotes via TSN’s Ian Mendes, both Twitter links) that their preference is to keep the blueliner around for another ten years but that with the streak they’re in, they have to look at everything.  While his comments should quash the coaching talk for the time being, the trade speculation is sure to continue for the foreseeable future.

Also from Ottawa:

  • Former Senators winger Chris Neil will be suiting up in Ottawa’s upcoming alumni game in advance of the outdoor game on Saturday but has already ruled out joining a team later on this season, he told Postmedia’s Ken Warren. Neil acknowledged that the Canadiens had offered him a tryout back in training camp as well as at least one other offer.  That other offer wasn’t from Ottawa and Neil has said that he believes that head coach Guy Boucher – who used him in a lesser role than he was accustomed to – played a big role in him being let go.  While he hasn’t officially retired, it will be hard to imagine Neil catching on with another team for 2018-19 after sitting out an entire season.

Kyle Turris Speaks Out About Not Signing In Ottawa

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When Kyle Turris was dealt to the Nashville Predators earlier this season, he immediately signed a six-year extension with the club for an average annual value of $6MM. He and Ottawa Senators GM Pierre Dorion both spoke to media saying a deal like that was never on the table between the two sides, basically pointing the finger at each other. Now, Turris is pointing the finger at an entirely different member of the Ottawa executive group.

Kyle TurrisSpeaking to media including Josh Clipperton of the Canadian Press ahead of the Predators’ matchup with the Vancouver Canucks tonight, Turris explained who really stopped any extension talks in Ottawa:

It’s tough because I think management did want to sign me, but I think that the owner didn’t. And that was his decision.

Senators owner Eugene Melnyk has been known to interfere with the hockey operations in many instances, and is about as hands-on as any around the league. While Turris’ comments don’t prove anything, you can be sure there was something that happened between he and management before being jettisoned to the Western Conference.

The Senators meanwhile have taken a nosedive since sending Turris out of town for Matt Duchene, and are now inspiring normally level-headed journalists like Ian Mendes of TSN to suggest a quick surrender this season. With trade rumors circling constantly around the team, the idea that Turris could have been kept on a reasonable extension won’t please many fans.

For his part, Dorion organized a press conference today to address some of the issues from the last few days. On Turris’ comments, he made his stance clear (via Arash Madani of Sportsnet):

Everything in hockey goes through me. Not Mr. Melnyk…

The contract he signed with [the Predators], he wouldn’t make with us. It’s that simple.

If there is any truth to the claim, it is curious why ownership wouldn’t want to keep Turris around. While he’s not the flashiest or most marketable player, he was a solid piece on an Eastern Conference final squad last season and will likely provide at least a few valuable years during the extension. Immediately, questions will go up over whether the fiscally conservative Melnyk was trying to save money, something that Senators fans have been dreading over the upcoming Erik Karlsson decision.

Karlsson is likely looking for an extension around twice as expensive as Turris, something that the Senators might not be able to afford even though Dorion made it clear today that he wants “Karlsson to be here for the next 10 years”. If they can’t, then perhaps Mendes is right and the “Ottawa Senators need to give up on this season and start thinking about the future.”

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

The Worst Case Scenario In Ottawa

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While the result is not yet final, the Ottawa Senators are in the midst tonight of what will likely end as a big loss to the Buffalo Sabres, the only team in the Eastern Conference with a worse record (for now). The team is in free fall, losing four straight games and eleven of their past twelve, not including tonight’s result. At 9-12-7, the Senators hold the third worst record in the NHL and rumors are swirling that no one on the roster is safe.

Back on November 5th, things seemed to be trending upward for Ottawa as GM Pierre Dorion was finally able to swing a trade to bring in coveted center Matt Duchene. In the process, the Senators gave up another legitimate top six center in Kyle Turris, goalie Andrew Hammond, 2016 first-rounder Shane Bowers, a 2019 third-round pick and a conditional 2018 first-round pick. Duchene has just four points and a -11 rating in 14 games with Ottawa so far and it’s already safe to say that the trade hasn’t worked out as planned.

So what’s next? With the Senators struggling, the conditional first-round pick sent to the Avalanche becomes very interesting. The 2018 pick is “top-ten protected”, meaning – as is likely – if Ottawa finished in the bottom third of the league, they retain their first round pick. Colorado would then get the Senators’ 2019 first-rounder. However, there is significant risk associated with that scenario. While the 2017-18 Sens have been underwhelming, there is enough talent on the roster to avoid falling apart entirely. The 2018-19 Senators though are another story. Ottawa just recently requested no-trade lists from ten key players and a fire sale could begin this season. The result could be an even worse squad next season and an even better pick heading to Colorado, perhaps even a top pick like center Jack Hughes or defenseman Bowen Byram.

So what is the worst case scenario in Ottawa? The team continues to struggle this year and is even worse next season, missing out on a potential franchise-altering prospect. After two years of failure, the team loses, via trade or free agency, Duchene, Erik Karlsson, Derick Brassard, and more. It may seem like a stretch, but it is in fact very possible. These are dark days in Ottawa, but the truth is that this could just be the beginning.

Latest On Erik Karlsson

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Erik Karlsson wants the trade speculation to calm down. After expressing that he wouldn’t consider taking a “hometown discount” to stay with the Ottawa Senators when he becomes an unrestricted free agent in the summer of 2019, and then being one of the players asked to submit his “no-trade” list on the weekend, rumors have run wild. Karlsson wants to put an end to that, and in speaking with Arash Madani of Sportsnet tried his very best.

This is the place I want to win with. I want to win in Ottawa. That’s where I’ll always be. It’s going to be my home, no matter where I end up playing when I get older, if that ever happens. So that’s the thing: I want to be where home is. I’m comfortable at home, I like it at home and Ottawa is home. Not only the organization, but the community and all my friends as well. That’s something that’s very important to me. Then, all the other stuff, they will just follow.

Karlsson regrets speaking about his future contract negotiations, but when they came during an anchor-like plummet to the bottom of the standings by the Senators they rang with a note of truth and expectation. The Senators have lost 11 of their last 12 games, including a 5-0 pummeling at the hands of San Jose on Saturday night. Ottawa was outshot 50-25 in the game, and now sit lower than all but the Buffalo Sabres in the Atlantic Division.

Still, despite many outlets (PHR included) suggesting it may be time to consider a move, Karlsson doesn’t appear to be on the block. In fact, Bruce Garrioch of the Ottawa Sun cites two league sources that tell him Karlsson hasn’t been discussed at all in trade talks with GM Pierre Dorion. Garrioch instead suggests that the trio of Mike Hoffman, Jean-Gabriel Pageau and Cody Ceci represent the “three best options that will bring return.” Hoffman was also among the group asked for their no-trade lists, while Pageau and Ceci have been linked to trade talks in the past.

The biggest decision still lies with Karlsson, who has 136 regular season games remaining under contract with the Senators. Whether they can even afford his next huge contract will be a huge factor in what happens during the end of this deal, as Dorion will surely get as many assets as possible if he realizes there is no extension coming. The two sides are able to negotiate on a new deal once July 1st, 2018 rolls around, a day circled on the calendar of many Ottawa fans.

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