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Looking At Claude Giroux’s Impending Free Agency

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With the Florida Panthers now swept out of the Stanley Cup Playoffs, many questions will arise this offseason about the future of this year’s Presidents’ Trophy winners. One of those questions will be the future of forward Claude Giroux, who the Panthers acquired at the Trade Deadline. The longtime captain of the Philadelphia Flyers was moved for what many viewed as an underwhelming return, and despite Florida’s early elimination, Giroux performed with renewed vigor on a better team. He had eight points in 10 playoff games but piled up assists in the regular season, notching 20 in 18 games with the Panthers. He still managed 42 points in 57 games with the Flyers prior to the trade on a massively struggling team, too. His eight-year extension that kicked in prior to 2014-15 is now expiring, and Giroux could hit unrestricted free agency for the first time in his 15-year career.

Giroux has already stated his desire to return to South Florida if the opportunity arises. However, with the worst year of the Keith Yandle buyout hitting the Panthers next season, the team has just under $4MM in projected cap space for the 2022-23 season, according to CapFriendly. That’s already an impossible number to sign Giroux unless he takes a serious old-man discount, but the team also has a handful of roster spots to fill on both forward and defense. The team could likely opt to trade Patric Hornqvist (with a limited no-trade clause) and the final year of his $5.3MM cap hit, though, which could seriously open the door for a Giroux return.

If Giroux can’t work out a return to the Panthers organization, though, teams will come prepared with serious offers for his services. The 34-year-old can still be counted on for at least 20 goals and 65/70 points in a full season, and he remains a very good defensive presence and faceoff man. Giroux is still boasting a streak of five seasons above a 55 percent mark in the faceoff circle, and although his skill set is now best used on the wing, he’s still valuable as a faceoff specialist. It’s hard to imagine Giroux receiving less than $6MM or $7MM, although a four-year term is likely an extreme maximum for Giroux at this point.

His hometown Ottawa Senators have been constantly linked to Giroux over the past few years, and the team hasn’t been quiet about their desire to improve this offseason drastically. With the team boasting nearly $25MM in cap space this offseason, they have the room and then some to make that sort of acquisition.

Is a return to the Flyers in the cards? It’s doubtful. Giroux hasn’t made a Stanley Cup Final in 12 years and he doesn’t have a ring. It’s that fact that makes it seem like a discount to stay in a team on the rise in Florida would make the most sense for Giroux. However, if the Senators play their cards right and their prospects develop properly, they could be in a position to win Cups by the end of a Giroux contract as well. Other teams in contending positions may not have the cap space to afford Giroux’s services, but it’s much too early to eliminate that scenario.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Pierre Dorion Provides Several Injury Updates

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In an interview on TSN 1200 (audio link), Senators GM Pierre Dorion provided an update on several injured players.  Forward Tim Stutzle suffered a recurrence of the knee injury he had earlier in the season while playing at the Worlds which resulted in his early exit from the tournament.  Fortunately, the injury isn’t a severe one as the youngster will need a couple of weeks to recover which will give him plenty of time to get ready for training camp in the fall.  Meanwhile, Jake Sanderson is on the right path in his recovery from a hand injury that prevented the blueliner from seeing any NHL action down the stretch and is expected to be ready for development camp this summer.

As for goaltender Matt Murray, Dorion added that the netminder is expected to be fully recovered from his concussion and be ready for training camp.  The 28-year-old is coming off another tough year that saw him post a save percentage of just .906 which has led to some speculation about his future with the Senators.  Murray has two more years left on his contract that carries a $6.25MM AAV.

Atlantic Notes: St. Louis, Giroux, Senators

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The Montreal Canadiens made waves earlier this season when the most storied franchise in NHL history replaced a head coach that had just guided them to their first Stanley Cup Final appearance in nearly 30 years with someone who had no professional coaching experience to speak of. However, under Laval native Martin St. Louis, the Canadiens, despite being battered and bruised, looked rejuvenated and carried much more of the same energy that had taken them through four rounds in 2021.

Now, it appears that St. Louis has done enough to impress the team’s front office and guide them through what’s likely to be a tumultuous next few seasons in terms of roster construction. TSN’s Darren Dreger reports that he expects the Canadiens to announce an extension for St. Louis “in the near future”, although there’s no timeline given for this. The Canadiens finished the season 14-19-4 under St. Louis, a marked improvement over the team’s abysmal 8-30-7 record under Ducharme.

  • After being swept out of the Second Round by the Tampa Bay Lightning, Claude Giroux expressed interest today in returning to the Presidents’ Trophy-winning Florida Panthers. How the team manages to make that work under the salary cap, though, is a gigantic mystery. While the Panthers don’t have any significant pieces to re-sign aside from Giroux and Mason Marchment, the team is greatly restricted in salary space next year by the combined $6.575MM cap hit from the Keith Yandle and Scott Darling buyouts. With that, the team will have just $4MM in cap space this offseason with depth roster spots to fill. Giroux would need to take a steeply discounted deal, which could be unlikely given the much more rich offers he’ll receive elsewhere. Giroux had 23 points in 18 games down the stretch for the Panthers in the regular season and eight points in 10 playoff games.
  • The Ottawa Senators appear to be ready to take aggressive steps in exiting their rebuild, with general manager Pierre Dorion saying that the team’s seventh overall pick at the 2022 NHL Draft is on the table for trade. Dorion also said that he’s focused on acquiring a top-four defenseman or a high-end forward, if possible. While the Senators do have a strong pool to deal from, they’re also a core that has proven very little with the team staying stagnant in the standings this season. With the team sitting on over $20MM worth of cap space again this offseason, though, they have the roster flexibility to make moves.

Latest On Senators Top Draft Pick

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  • Another GM has also communicated a willingness to move a top-ten pick for an impact player: the Ottawa Senators. Per Friedman, the Senators, who pick seventh-overall, are also curious about the possibility of using that pick to acquire a player more immediately able to help their team win. Friedman reports that the Senators “want someone with term,” and speculates that there should be a “wider range” of possibilities at the seventh pick compared to the second. The Senators have a strong prospect pool but finished 26th in the standings, so GM Pierre Dorion’s interest in exchanging his premium draft pick for more proven assets is definitely reasonable.

Offseason Checklist: Ottawa Senators

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The offseason has arrived for half of the league’s teams that aren’t playoff-bound plus some that were eliminated early in the playoffs.  It’s time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Ottawa.

Before last season, Senators GM Pierre Dorion declared the rebuild over.  The team went on to post a weaker points percentage and finished seventh in the Atlantic Division after finishing sixth in the North the year before.  Nevertheless, they’re still on the right path towards trying to get back into the playoff picture and their checklist follows that mindset with a mixture of retaining their current core and trying to add to it.

Shore Up Goaltending

One area that hasn’t been pretty the last couple of years is between the pipes.  Anton Forsberg exceeded expectations as a waiver claim and did well enough to earn himself a three-year extension just before the trade deadline.  After him, however, there are question marks; even Forsberg is somewhat of a question with just 104 games under his belt.

Matt Murray has struggled mightily in his two seasons with Ottawa, posting a 3.23 GAA and a SV% of just .899 over that stretch.  He suffered a concussion back in early March, the third documented one of his career already after having two in quick succession with Pittsburgh.  At this point, it’s hard to rely on him to provide much even though he has two years left on his contract at a $6.25MM AAV, one that’s effectively untradeable.

Their other in-house option is Filip Gustavsson.  Once viewed as a key goalie prospect of Ottawa’s future, he has underwhelmed in his limited NHL action so far.  He is waiver-eligible next season so he’s likely to be on the roster although relying on him would also be risky.

This is not a trio of goaltenders that will inspire a lot of confidence for a team with playoff aspirations.  Finding a capable second goaltender to partner with Forsberg would give them a big lift.  It’ll be easier said than done with Murray on the books and Gustavsson’s trade value not exactly at its peak but Dorion would be wise to try to bring in an upgrade between the pipes.

Flip The Switch

Regardless of whether or not they’re able to shore up the goaltending, Dorion needs to start focusing on some win-now moves.  They’re not going to go from being near the basement to a contender right away but the time has come to start shopping for veterans that are going to help the process of turning things around.

Up front, that means looking for a top-six winger.  Ottawa’s front line appears to be set with Brady Tkachuk and Drake Batherson flanking Joshua Norris.  However, with Tim Stutzle anchoring the second line, his options on the wing aren’t anywhere near as strong and have been a collection of youngsters looking to establish themselves in the NHL or a veteran like Connor Brown who has been more of a two-way player than a consistent offensive threat.  Bringing in a quality scoring winger would elevate Stutzle’s play and really give the Senators a second line that’s capable of producing with consistency.

There’s also work that needs to be done on the back end beyond non-tendering Victor Mete and parting with Michael Del Zotto.  Travis Hamonic was brought in to try to stabilize a back end that bleeds shots allowed (more than 33 per game after allowing just over 32 per game the year before) but while he’s a stable veteran, that alone isn’t going to change their fortunes.  A full season from Jake Sanderson probably doesn’t hurt but another impact defender would make a big difference.

Ottawa doesn’t yet have $60MM in commitments for next season and while that will change once they re-sign their restricted free agents, they will have ample room to try to add.  If they opt to buy out Colin White (at a cap charge of $3.75MM total spread out over six seasons), they’ll have nearly $4MM extra to work with this summer as well.

Re-Sign Norris

Last summer, it was Tkachuk that was in line for a big contract coming off his entry-level deal.  This year, it’s Norris.  The 23-year-old had a breakout campaign, leading Ottawa in goals with 35 while finishing third in points with 55.  Dorion’s preference has been to sign long-term contracts off expiring entry-level pacts as he did for Tkachuk, Batherson, and Thomas Chabot so he’s likely going to want to do the same here.

One of the challenges that both sides will here is Norris’ shorter track record.  His first season was just three games and he has only 125 career NHL appearances under his belt, the equivalent of a year and a half.  That isn’t a big sample size to go off of and he doesn’t have arbitration eligibility so this has the potential to be a particularly drawn-out negotiation.  If Ottawa wants to skip the bridge contract and look for a long-term pact, Norris’ camp is likely to point to Nick Suzuki’s contract in Montreal (eight years, $7.875MM AAV) which would also stay within their salary structure as it would check in a little below Tkachuk and Chabot.

Extension Talks

Speaking of long-term contracts handed out to players coming off of their entry-level contracts, Ottawa could be in that situation next summer with Stutzle’s deal coming to an end.  After a stronger sophomore year, Dorion will likely want to kick the tires on what an extension now might cost, knowing that a stronger platform season would result in a higher asking price the following year.  It’s likely to fall in the range of Tkachuk, Chabot, and probably Norris in terms of the AAV.

Ottawa also has a pair of intriguing players that will be unrestricted next summer and thus eligible for extension talks at the start of the new league year in mid-July.  Brown has been a solid performer since coming over from Toronto but is his role likelier to stay where it is now or do they envision him being more of a third-liner down the road?  The answer to that will go a long way in determining whether or not discussions of a new deal make sense.

The other UFA of note in 2023 is defenseman Artem Zub.  His numbers don’t jump off the page (22 points in 81 games) but he logged over 21 minutes a night and is a right-shot defender that will hit the open market in 2023 at the age of 27.  In other words, there is going to be a lot of interest if he gets to that point.  Dorion moved quickly to extend Zub when his entry-level contract ended and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him try to get an early extension done again.  If so, his teammate Nikita Zaitsev’s contract ($4.5MM AAV) is a possible comparable.

For the last few seasons, the Senators have been near the bottom in spending on the cap.  As their young core matures and other veterans are added or brought in to deepen the roster, that’s going to change fast.  The more certainty they can get on the spending front, the better which is why being proactive on the contract discussion front should be a priority for Dorion.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Salary figures courtesy of CapFriendly.

Tim Stutzle Hurt At World Championships

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Concerning news from the World Championships for the Ottawa Senators and Team Germany, as young forward Tim Stutzle was injured Monday in a game against France (link). The forward took a hit in the corner from France defenseman Thomas Thiry, coming up limp and leaving the ice, favoring his left leg. Stutzle, who had two assists in two games before the injury, would not return to the game.

Montreal Canadiens Win 2022 NHL Draft Lottery

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Beginning this season, the full effect of the changes to the draft lottery rules announced last year are in place. Starting this year, teams can only move up a maximum of 10 spots if they’re selected, meaning teams originally set at picks 12, 13, 14, 15, and 16 cannot move up all the way to the first overall pick. A win for one of these teams in the first draft lottery secures the pick for the team that finished last.

The team with the best odds coming in will win the draft lottery for the second straight year, though. The Montreal Canadiens will pick first overall in their own building, the first time such an occurrence has happened since 1985 when the Toronto Maple Leafs drafted Wendel Clark at Maple Leaf Gardens. The New Jersey Devils moved up from fifth overall to second overall, bumping down the Arizona Coyotes, Seattle Kraken, and Philadelphia Flyers down one spot each.

The order for the top 16 picks of the 2022 NHL Draft is as follows:

  1. Montreal Canadiens
  2. New Jersey Devils
  3. Arizona Coyotes
  4. Seattle Kraken
  5. Philadelphia Flyers
  6. Columbus Blue Jackets (via Chicago Blackhawks)
  7. Ottawa Senators
  8. Detroit Red Wings
  9. Buffalo Sabres
  10. Anaheim Ducks
  11. San Jose Sharks
  12. Columbus Blue Jackets
  13. New York Islanders
  14. Winnipeg Jets
  15. Vancouver Canucks
  16. Buffalo Sabres (via Vegas Golden Knights)

While Shane Wright is still the consensus no. 1 overall selection across public draft boards (and NHL Central Scouting), there’s been recent noise about players like Juraj Slafkovsky and Logan Cooley potentially challenging him for first overall. That’s an upset unlikely to happen, though, as Wright had a terrific second half of the 2021-22 campaign, finishing with 32 goals, 62 assists, and 94 points in 63 games with the OHL’s Kingston Frontenacs. He also has 10 points in eight playoff games at the time of writing. While teams will draft him for his elite playmaking ability, he’s got an underrated shot when he chooses to use it as well. Standout Slovak defenseman Simon Nemec, Czech defenseman David Jiricek, Canadian forward Matthew Savoie, and Finnish forward Joakim Kemell are also names to watch for near the top of the draft board.

Pierre McGuire Fired By Ottawa Senators

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The Ottawa Senators have made a change to the front office, firing vice president of player development Pierre McGuire according to A.J. Jakubec and Steve Lloyd of TSN.

It hasn’t even been a year since the Senators hired McGuire, announcing him on July 12, 2021. Notably, the press release that day included a statement from late owner Eugene Melnyk, not general manager Pierre Dorion, who is still in control of the front office after signing an extension in September. Dorion is trying to take the team from a rebuilding club to a contender, though things did seem to take a slight step backward this season when the team struggled out of the gate.

McGuire, 60, had returned to an NHL front office after more than two decades in a broadcasting role–a role he will likely be returning to now that he’s a free agent once again. His most recent role before this one was as a scout with the Senators in 1996, and a quick exit this time around could spell the end of his time in NHL front offices entirely.

For Ottawa, player development is more important than anything. As a club that isn’t among the league’s financial elite, getting value out of young players on entry-level contracts is the entire game. If McGuire wasn’t getting the best out of that development, it makes sense for the team to move on. With the likes of Jake Sanderson, Ridly Greig, Tyler Boucher joining the organization, the development department will be in the spotlight for the next little while.

Bettman: Senators Not For Sale

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  • After the sudden passing of longtime Ottawa Senators owner Eugene Melnyk, there has been much conversation about the future of his team and its ownership. When asked about that future, Bettman decided to pump the breaks on any speculation of a quick change in ownership for the Senators. Bettman said, as relayed by Sportsnet’s Luke Fox, that the Senators “aren’t for sale,” and that there have not been discussions on any level about a potential sale of the team. Bruce Garrioch of the Ottawa Sun reports that Senators management is currently reporting to the board that Melnyk put in place before his passing, and it was made clear from Bettman’s comments that this arrangement is not one the league sees any real need to immediately change.

Senators Send Three Junior Prospects To The AHL

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For players playing in junior in Canada, they typically have to be 20 before they can play in the minors with a couple of exceptions.  One of those is that a player can go down once their junior team is eliminated from the playoffs (or doesn’t qualify at all).  The Senators are certainly taking advantage of that provision as their farm team announced that prospects Tyler Boucher, Ridly Greig, and Carson Latimer have all been assigned to AHL Belleville.

Boucher was the tenth-overall pick last summer out of the U.S. National Development program and started the season at Boston University before changing his development path in late December when he signed with Ottawa.  The winger was assigned to OHL Ottawa in January and put up seven goals and seven assists in 24 regular season games with the 67’s while adding a goal and an assist in four playoff contests.

As for Greig, the 2020 first-round pick (28th overall) has a bit of AHL experience under his belt as he was able to play in seven minor league games last season while waiting for the WHL season to get underway.  The 19-year-old winger had a standout year with WHL Brandon, notching 26 goals and 37 assists in just 39 games while also being named to Canada’s entry for the World Juniors last December.

Latimer, meanwhile, was a 2021 fourth-rounder (123rd overall).  The winger started the season with Edmonton of the WHL before being moved to Prince Albert at the beginning of December where he had an opportunity to play a bigger role and made the most of it, picking up 12 goals and 20 assists in 44 games.

None of the three players were in the lineup for the opening game of Belleville’s play-in series against Rochester tonight but if the Senators are able to move on, it’s possible that Boucher and Greig, in particular, get a chance at some extra game action in the weeks to come.

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