Ottawa’s Contention Window Could Be Short
The Senators have struggled to start the year, despite high hopes and promises that this would be the year they finally made some noise. However, some three months into the season, the only noise out of Ottawa is the collective sighs as the team’s inconsistency drives its most loyal supporters up the wall.
The Sens have a relatively young team, and with youth comes growing pains. But this group has been together for quite a while now, and it’s fair to wonder if this is who they are: a talented group of individual players who, together, form a flawed team with a window to win that grows smaller by the day.
When the Senators began tearing apart their core in 2018, it was clear that dark days lay ahead, but in the background, there was always hope for a brighter future, and for good reason. Many of the teams that tore down their roster to the studs rebuilt their systems and competed for Stanley Cups.
Whenever fans discussed the bottom-out rebuild, they would bring up the Penguins, Blackhawks, Kings and Lightning, and the collective 10 Stanley Cups those four teams won over 12 years. However, tearing down the roster was never a guarantee of success.
For every Chicago or Pittsburgh, you had a Buffalo or Edmonton. Teams that had bottomed out, but never built anything worth talking about. And now, with the Senators nearing the halfway point of the season at the bottom of the Eastern Conference standings, it’s fair to start asking whether they are more Buffalo than Chicago.
Ottawa is still framed as a team on the rise. They are young, talented, and one would think poised to break through once the pieces fall into place.
But aren’t the pieces already in place? You would think so, given the players they’ve brought in over the past five years, such as Jakob Chychrun and Alex DeBrincat, two men who were brought in for a season or two and shuffled out quickly. Ottawa likely pounced too early when they brought in those players, sensing they were closer to winning than they actually were, and exposing some of the problematic elements of a rebuild that are often forgotten.
The Senators have a ton of talent in their core. There is no doubting that.
Just because a core is talented doesn’t mean there is synchronicity. Ottawa has some pieces nearing their prime, while others have long passed it, and some are just learning what it takes to be a full-time NHLer and are being asked to do too much. Talent isn’t really the issue in Ottawa; timing is.
In fairness to the Senators, they did most of what a rebuilding team is supposed to do. They hit on their top picks (Brady Tkachuk, Tim Stützle), had some big trade wins by shipping out veterans (Erik Karlsson), and signed their top stars to very reasonable contracts (Jake Sanderson, Stützle, Tkachuk). But once those players are signed, it becomes much more challenging to layer the roster with inexpensive depth, and that is generally done through drafting, which the Senators have struggled with outside the first round. This has begun to rear its head.
There has long been a mentality among Senators fans that the team would figure out who to surround their stars with later on, but the time to figure it out is now, and they don’t look like they have the solutions. The trouble with a competitive window in the case of the Senators is that when you make big bets and lose, the window to win doesn’t get delayed or kicked down the road; it shrinks. The Senators could be in the midst of finding that out.
The Senators’ stars have been out of the development stage for a few years now, and one has to wonder how long their star players will remain patient. They were supposed to be past the learning years and into the progression years, and while last year felt like a step in the right direction, this year feels like two steps back, with little help on the way in the form of prospects or significant additions.
Ottawa’s farm system ranks bottom-10 in the league (23rd on Elite Prospects, 25th on Daily Faceoff), and they are without a first-round pick this year. They have a healthy stash of draft picks outside of that, but don’t have a ton of cap room to make major splashes.
Speaking of the salary cap, Ottawa has $23MM available next summer with eight players to sign (per PuckPedia). Assuming defensive prospect Carter Yakemchuk makes the jump to the NHL, that leaves Ottawa with around $22MM and seven players to sign to NHL deals.
That’s not a bad number by any stretch, but realistically, they will be looking to sign a top-four right-handed defenseman, a top-six winger, a backup goaltender, and a few bottom-six forwards. It’s not a daunting task, but it doesn’t leave much wiggle room, and you have to wonder whether their roster will be much better next year.
And make no mistake, the years are about to matter a whole lot more to the players on the roster and the team. Drake Batherson has one year remaining on his deal after this one, as does defenseman Artem Zub, while the likes of Tkachuk and defenseman Thomas Chabot have two.
Batherson has been a massive bargain on his current deal, carrying a cap hit of just $4.975MM on a six-year deal and delivering 60-plus points per season. Batherson is also consistently in the lineup, having dressed for 82 games in each of the previous three seasons. His defensive play, on the other hand, is not something to write home about, but that can be said for many goal-scoring wingers in the NHL.
Batherson has given Ottawa a ton of value over the life of his current contract, and like it or not, he’s going to want to claw a lot of that back on his next deal, which figures to be a seven-year deal and will probably top teammate Shane Pinto’s $7.5MM deal. Does Ottawa want to pay Batherson $8MM or more annually? Hard to say, but they can’t get that deal wrong, and what kind of message would it send to trade him right before the Tkachuk negotiations start?
Speaking of Tkachuk, he is the heart of the team and one heck of a competitor. You have to believe that if Ottawa can’t show forward progress in the next 18 months, he won’t be in a hurry to sign a long-term deal with the Senators when he is eligible to do so in July 2027.
Tkachuk negotiated in a very tactical and aggressive way during the last round of contract talks, and you have to believe he won’t be an easy player to lock up long-term if real results aren’t shown. Tkachuk is being paid handsomely at the moment, carrying an AAV north of $8.2MM. Steve Warne of The Hockey News has reported previously that his father, Keith Tkachuk, doesn’t believe he will leave Ottawa, but losing does a lot, as does winning, and Ottawa’s results will have a lot of say in what Tkachuk does.
The Senators have no choice but to win often and soon. They can ill afford to let the years go by without success. Windows to win don’t usually slam shut; they close quietly when contracts age poorly, teams fail to develop players, and depth erodes. It happened to those aforementioned Stanley Cup champions, in Chicago’s case, much earlier than expected and in Pittsburgh’s case, much later. It will happen to Ottawa at some point, and the question is whether they will win before it does. Much of that will be determined over the next 18 months.
Photo by Eric Bolte-USA TODAY Sports
Senators Sign James Reimer To AHL PTO
The Ottawa Senators will be taking a look at a veteran goaltender, as James Reimer has been signed to an AHL professional tryout agreement, per Darren Dreger of TSN. According to Dreger, Reimer is expected to report to Ottawa in the next few days with an NHL contract.
With #1 option Linus Ullmark taking a leave of absence for personal reasons, the team needs help for the time being. Mads Søgaard was recalled from AHL Belleville earlier today, but he, along with Leevi Merilainen, surrendered eight goals in a resounding defeat against Colorado tonight. Merilainen has backed up Ullmark so far this season and played 15 games, but the 23-year-old has a 6-8 record and an .868 goals-against-average. Such a result tonight was indicative that a move was needed. Even once Ullmark returns, Reimer figures to be a steady enough backup, allowing Merilainen to develop further.
Reimer, 37, was listed as an outside option available to Ottawa just five days ago, and sure enough, the veteran has earned an opportunity to extend his career. Unable to secure a contract from his tryout with Toronto in the fall, Reimer will technically join the AHL’s Belleville Senators for now. If he were to play in a “tune up” of sorts, it would be his first AHL action since the 2010-11 season as a Toronto Marlie.
As long as he takes the crease for Ottawa at some point, they would become Reimer’s eighth NHL club. Belleville also offers Hunter Shepard between the pipes, a respectable AHLer, but the 30-year-old has not played at the same level as he did with the Hershey Bears over the past several seasons. Currently 23rd in the AHL despite having the league’s second highest scorer in Arthur Kaliyev, Belleville has lacked stability in net, and the latest news in Ottawa only intensifies it.
At this point, the Sens have little to lose to bring in a netminder with over 500 games of NHL experience. Reimer’s patience to keep playing has paid off, and the 2006 draftee could appear sooner rather than later, given the circumstances.
Senators Activate Lars Eller, Move Linus Ullmark To Non-Roster List
The Senators announced they’ve activated center Lars Eller from injured reserve. To open a spot, they moved goaltender Linus Ullmark to the non-roster list. He’s on an indefinite leave of absence from the club that began on Dec. 28.
Eller’s return tonight against his former team, the Avalanche, comes nearly a month after he sustained a foot injury on Dec. 11 against the Blue Jackets. He’s now missed 14 of Ottawa’s last 16 games due to that and a separate undisclosed injury.
Signed to a one-year, $1.25MM deal in free agency, the 36-year-old has been a serviceable fourth-line piece. No longer expected to churn out the 30-40 points he was good for in his prime, he’s only gotten on the scoresheet six times in 28 games (two goals, four assists). However, he’s been one of the league’s top faceoff men at a 60.5% win rate and has been up to the task as a shutdown specialist at 5-on-5, ranking fourth on the team in GA/60 at 2.45.
For now, his return pushes rookie Stephen Halliday to the press box. It’s unclear how long that arrangement will last. The 23-year-old is still looking for his first NHL goal but has already demonstrated good playmaking skills in limited minutes, notching six assists in 18 games despite averaging just 8:12 of ice time per game. That’s a 27-point pace over a full season, and he’s also averaging a shot on goal per game.
There’s not really a top-nine spot up for grabs for Halliday to push for, though, and Ottawa’s veteran-laden fourth line has had success defensively. If Halliday isn’t going to be a regular, it might behoove the Sens to take advantage of the 6’4″ pivot’s waiver-exempt status while they still can and get him more development time in Belleville.
While the non-roster designation doesn’t stop Ullmark from counting against the cap, it does mean he’s no longer taking up one of the Sens’ 23 available roster spot while he’s on his leave of absence. There’s still no indication as to when Ottawa’s starter might return. In what’s now been six straight starts for backup Leevi Merilainen, he’s posted a .860 SV% with a 2-4-0 record.
Senators Recall Mads Sogaard
The Senators have recalled goaltender Mads Søgaard from AHL Belleville, per a team announcement. He replaces Hunter Shepard, who was reassigned to Belleville in the corresponding move, as Ottawa’s interim No. 2 option while Linus Ullmark is away from the club.
Søgaard, 25, has seen at least one start for the Sens in each of the last four seasons but has failed to make a meaningful leap on Ottawa’s depth chart. The Sens selected him 37th overall in 2019 as the third goalie off the board, following Spencer Knight and Pyotr Kochetkov, but he appears to have topped out as a No. 3/4 option.
The big Dane checks in at 6’7″ and 231 lbs, a frame that has likely kept him under NHL consideration longer than his numbers would have dictated otherwise. After appearing to break out with a .916 SV% in 32 games with Belleville in 2023-24, he spent most of last year on the injured list and only had a .858 mark while going winless in eight appearances. This season, he’s been limited to a .887 SV%, 3.49 GAA, one shutout, and a 2-8-3 record in 15 games.
With a .879 SV% in 29 career NHL appearances, he doesn’t offer a ton of intrigue as a short-term backup option, either. While Ottawa has had goaltending problems all year with Ullmark churning out a .881 SV% and a league-worst -18.3 goals saved above expected, per MoneyPuck, the options behind him aren’t any better. Leevi Merilainen, their top name for the time being, has a .867 mark and -11.8 GSAx in just 14 games. Shepard, 30, allowed two goals on 12 shots in relief of Merilainen in Monday’s 5-3 loss to the Red Wings.
Goalie Notes: Ullmark, Senators, Reimer
In today’s press conference, Ottawa Senators General Manager Steve Staios admitted that there’s no timeline for netminder Linus Ullmark to return from his leave of absence. Ullmark took a personal leave on December 28th and has not played for the Senators since December 27th.
Although some have speculated that Ullmark’s indefinite leave from Ottawa impacted his candidacy for Team Sweden’s roster for the upcoming 2026 Winter Olympics, a report from Hans Abrahamsson and Viktoria Björklöf explained that wasn’t the case.
That update isn’t entirely surprising given Ullmark’s performance this season. After finishing with a .909 SV% last season, he’s only managed a .881 mark this season. Additionally, according to MoneyPuck, of the 49 netminders that have played 15 or more games this season, Ullmark is in 46th place with a -4.9 Goals Saved Above Expected.
Additional goaltending notes:
- Despite being without Ullmark for the foreseeable future, Staios mentioned in the same press conference that he doesn’t expect to bring in any outside help. It’s a nice sentiment that Staios has confidence in Ottawa’s current goaltending depth, but it’s a bit unfounded. The Senators’ current starter, Leevi Merilainen, has only managed an .872 SV% through 12 games this season, while the duo of Hunter Shepard and Mads Søgaard has combined for a .888 mark for the AHL’s Belleville Senators.
- One veteran netminder who is conceivably available to the Senators is James Reimer. In today’s rendition of 32 Thoughts, Elliotte Friedman shared that Reimer, who is currently an unrestricted free agent, is still looking for a place to play this year and would like to join a contender if possible. Reimer finished with a .896 SV% last season, split between the Anaheim Ducks and Buffalo Sabres, and it’s clear that the Senators still plan on contending this season, which could entice Reimer if they’re interested.
Senators Believed To Have Checked In On Rasmus Andersson
While the Senators enter play today in last place in the Atlantic Division and second-last in the Eastern Conference, they’re only three points out of a Wild Card spot and aren’t thinking about selling just yet. To that end, league sources suggested to Postmedia’s Bruce Garrioch that Ottawa has circled back and inquired about Flames blueliner Rasmus Andersson.
The 29-year-old is in the final season of his contract and while Calgary hasn’t ruled out the possibility of signing him to an extension themselves, the expectation is that he will likely be dealt before the trade deadline in March.
Andersson is a top-pairing right-shot defender, the type of commodity that is always in short supply and very high demand. In 40 games this season, he has eight goals and 18 assists, putting him on pace for his second career 50-point campaign. Meanwhile, Andersson is also averaging a career-high 24:10 per game of playing time.
With a $4.55MM cap charge, it’s fair to say that Andersson has been quite the bargain for Calgary and it’s a price tag that a lot of teams should be able to afford, including the Sens. However, given his role, production, and overall value, the Flames are well-positioned to command a significant return; a first-round pick and a top prospect could be a realistic ask at this point. If Calgary gave a team permission to discuss an extension beforehand, that price could go even higher.
That potential price could be a challenge for Ottawa to meet. As things stand, they’re set to forfeit their 2026 first-round pick as punishment for not declaring Evgenii Dadonov’s no-trade protection that eventually resulted in a vetoed trade back in 2022. While they can move future first-round picks as well, going multiple years without a top pick isn’t ideal for a team that currently finds itself out of a playoff spot.
Meanwhile, it appears their top prospects aren’t believed to be available. Garrioch reports that the Sens have zero interest in moving defensemen Carter Yakemchuk and Logan Hensler, their two most recent first-round selections. Yakemchuk is currently injured with AHL Belleville while Hensler just suited up at the World Juniors.
With those top assets unavailable, it’s hard to see Ottawa realistically getting involved in trade talks for Andersson. But they can be added to the list of teams keeping tabs on him, a group that includes (but is not limited to) Dallas, Los Angeles, Toronto, and Vegas.
Senators Loan Matthew Andonovski To OHL
The Senators reassigned defense prospect Matthew Andonovski from AHL Belleville to OHL Kitchener today, per a team announcement.
Andonovski was a fifth-round pick in 2023. As he’s 20 years old, he’s still eligible for major junior hockey, but Ottawa was no longer forced to return him to his junior team as stipulated by the NHL-CHL transfer agreement.
While Andonovski was eligible for a full-time assignment to Belleville, loaning him to Kitchener means he must stay there until their season ends. He’s not eligible to return to the AHL until then, and he would only be eligible for an NHL recall under emergency conditions, although he’s far enough down the depth chart that he wouldn’t be considered in that scenario.
The 6’2″, 201-lb lefty signed his entry-level contract with the Sens in the 2024 offseason, but the deal slid to this year after he was loaned out to Kitchener for the entire campaign. A physical shutdown defender, Andonovski served as the Rangers’ captain last season and racked up 21 points, a +10 rating, and 132 penalty minutes in 65 games.
This season, injuries have limited Andonovski’s pro debut to just three appearances with Belleville and none since Nov. 1. He posted zeroes across the board. Today’s news indicates he’s been cleared to return to play and will now partake in his fifth and final season with Kitchener.
Senators Activate Shane Pinto
The Senators welcomed back a key center to the lineup tonight against Columbus. Postmedia’s Bruce Garrioch relayed (Twitter link) that Shane Pinto was set to anchor the third line, meaning he has been activated off injured reserve. Ottawa had an open roster spot so no further moves needed to be made.
The 25-year-old has missed the last four weeks with a lower-body injury. With Lars Eller also on IR, they still don’t have their full complement of middlemen available to them but their top three are now intact.
Pinto got off to a terrific start to the season. He had seven goals in six games to start and by the time he reached his 18th game, he had nine goals and six assists, making for a nice return on his $3.75MM bridge deal. At that 18-game mark, he signed a four-year, $30MM contract extension, buying out his two remaining RFA-eligible seasons as well as his first two years of UFA eligibility.
However, things haven’t gone quite as well offensively for Pinto since then. In his nine games played since signing, he has just three goals and one assist before sustaining his injury. Still, he is certainly a welcome addition as they will need as much firepower as possible with starting goalie Linus Ullmark away from the team indefinitely on a leave of absence.
Meanwhile, Ottawa also welcomed back defenseman Tyler Kleven to the lineup after missing the last three games with a lower-body injury. He has five assists, 48 blocked shots, and 41 hits in 32 games this season. He remained on the active roster while injured so no corresponding move needed to be made for him either. Kleven took the place of Nick Jensen (healthy scratch) in the lineup.
Ottawa Senators Recall Hunter Shepard
As expected, the Ottawa Senators have recalled an additional netminder with Linus Ullmark taking an indefinite leave of absence for personal reasons. The Senators announced that they’ve recalled Hunter Shepard from the AHL’s Belleville Senators.
Shepard, 30, was the obvious choice for a recall with Ullmark out. The two-time Calder Cup champion and two-time National champion is in his first year with the Senators organization after signing a one-year, league minimum contract last summer.
He hasn’t dominated the AHL as he has in years past with the Hershey Bears, though he’s clearly been the best option in Belleville. In 11 games this season, Shepard has a 5-5-1 record with a .905 SV% and 3.16 GAA. By contrast, his tandem partner, Mads Søgaard, has a 2-6-3 record in 13 games with a .885 SV% and 3.47 GAA.
Still, despite his past accomplishments in the NCAA and AHL, Shepard lacks the same level of experience in the NHL as Søgaard does. Depending on how long Ullmark will miss, it’s unrealistic to think the Senators will start Leevi Merilainen for every game. The Senators have a particularly busy schedule coming up, with 10 games in 19 days beginning today against the Columbus Blue Jackets.
Regardless, if Shepard does feature in a game for Ottawa, it’ll be his first NHL appearance since the end of last season. It would be difficult for him to fare any worse than he did in that contest, allowing seven goals on 26 shots against the Blue Jackets.
Senators Reassign Xavier Bourgault And Dennis Gilbert
Dec. 29th: After Ottawa’s loss to the Maple Leafs, the team quietly moved Bourgault and Gilbert back to AHL Belleville, according to the AHL transactions log. Neither player participated in last night’s contest against the Utica Comets, so they won’t be eligible for an additional recall until after the new year.
Dec. 27th: The Senators have made a pair of roster moves coming out of the holiday break to give them some extra depth. The team announced that they’ve recalled forward Xavier Bourgault and defenseman Dennis Gilbert from AHL Belleville. To make room for them on the roster, center Lars Eller was moved to injured reserve.
This is the first regular season recall of Bourgault’s career (though he has been brought up as a Black Ace in the playoffs before). The 23-year-old was a first-round pick by Edmonton back in 2021, going 22nd overall but has played exclusively in the AHL since turning pro in 2022. Ottawa acquired him back in the 2024 offseason.
Bourgault has been quite productive with Belleville to earn this promotion. In 32 games this season, he has nine goals and 18 assists, including ten helpers in his last nine outings. As a result, he has already surpassed his output from last season when he had 26 points in 61 contests. He’s expected to make his NHL debut against Toronto tonight with the team announcing (Twitter link) that Bourgault is expected to slot in on the fourth line.
Gilbert, meanwhile, gets his second recall after being acquired from Philadelphia earlier this season. He got into one game on that first stint, his only taste of action at the top level in 2025-26 though he was injured for most of the season. Between Belleville and AHL Lehigh Valley, the 30-year-old has six assists in 13 games.