Should The Predators Move Juuse Saros?
The Nashville Predators had another disappointing campaign, missing the playoffs for a second straight year. It’s hard to say they fell short of expectations this year, given how low they were, but that doesn’t remove the sting of failing to reach the postseason for a team with several proud veterans in its lineup.
One of those veterans, goaltender Juuse Saros, had an especially frustrating season, facing the most shots in the NHL and finishing with the worst numbers of his 11-year career. The 31-year-old faced 1,701 shots this year and will likely face a similar workload next season unless significant changes take place in Nashville.
With his second straight sub-.900 SV%, Saros’s play is a cause for concern and could have management in Nashville debating whether he is still the guy for the Predators.
To put Saros’ decline into perspective, the first eight full seasons of his career saw him post a save percentage north of .900, including seven straight seasons above .910. Those are elite numbers among goaltenders, and that type of play garnered Saros some Vezina Trophy consideration in several of those years.
At the time of signing his current contract (July 1, 2024), Saros was among the league’s top netminders, which is why Nashville handed him an eight-year deal worth $61.92MM ($7.74MM AAV). It was a commitment to their star goalie, whom they had relied on for years, with 60+ games per season from 2021-2024.
That contract only kicked in this season, and the timing could not have been worse for Nashville, as Saros’ play fell off considerably in the first year of that lucrative extension.
This past season, Saros posted a .894 SV% to go with a 3.16 GAA and a 28-22-8 record in 59 appearances. Outside of the win-loss record, those numbers are very similar to last year’s, when he appeared in 58 games and had a 20-31-6 record with a .895 SV% and a 2.98 GAA.
Taking a deeper dive into some of his analytics, Saros had a -7.4 goals saved above expected (as per MoneyPuck) in 2024-25 and a -9.3 this past season. Taken together, those numbers paint the picture of a goaltender who has been significantly below average in each of the last two years.
With seven years left on that contract, Saros doesn’t look like the star netminder Nashville hoped he would be, and it is certainly a cause for concern. It’s hardly the first time a goalie on the wrong side of 30 has seen a drop-off in play, but it is especially troubling for Nashville for a variety of reasons, the biggest being the term and money left on the deal. Saros is still owed over $50MM over the remaining seven years, and if he struggles next season, that contract becomes an anchor.
So could they try to move him this summer, when his value is so low?
It might not be the worst time to do it, given how goalie-hungry the entire league is and how quickly the salary cap is accelerating. There are many teams with ample cap space and major goaltending issues who would be all too happy to roll the dice on Saros despite his recent struggles and expensive contract.
Just look at how desperate the Oilers were this past fall when they traded for Tristan Jarry and his pricey contract, even though Jarry was one of, if not the, most inconsistent goaltenders in the entire NHL. Edmonton even paid handsomely to acquire Jarry, despite his warts, because they had no other options.
Many other teams could face the same goalie landscape if they try to upgrade, which is good news for Nashville if they do indeed pursue a Saros trade.
One major hiccup in trading Saros will be his full no-movement clause, which is in effect for another five years and will be a major hurdle if Nashville looks to move him. The clause will effectively limit Nashville’s market to Saros’s preferred destinations, which might be the biggest issue if they try to move him.
Another major issue is that if Nashville plans to bring up some of their promising prospects and complete, who out there could be a better option than Saros? The free-agent market for netminders is thin, to say the least.
Sure, the Predators could roll the dice on a Stuart Skinner, but he isn’t an upgrade and brings his own inconsistency into the fold.
Backup Justus Annunen is another option, as he is signed for another two seasons, but he’s never been an NHL starter and has never played more than 34 games in a season. He also has just 80 games of NHL experience, making him an unlikely option for a starting role at this time.
Truthfully, the best option is the one that aligns with Nashville’s future plans. If the team elects to rebuild in a dramatic way, trading a pricey starting goalie makes sense.
However, if the Predators have any plans to be competitive again, they have much bigger issues than Saros’s goaltending. In any event, it will be an interesting summer for the Predators, as they could look quite different come training camp in September.
Image courtesy of Katie Stratman-Imagn Images.
Offseason Checklist: Toronto Maple Leafs
The offseason has arrived for half of the league’s teams that aren’t taking part in the playoffs. Accordingly, it’s now time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months. Next up is a look at the Maple Leafs.
To say this season didn’t go to plan for Toronto would be an understatement. Coming off just their second series win in the Auston Matthews era in 2025, there were going to be changes after bowing out to the Panthers – Mitch Marner‘s long-understood departure via a sign-and-trade to the Golden Knights was the biggest of them all – but the hope was that a bevy of depth free agent signings could help replace the star playmaker’s production by committee. Instead, the Leafs floundered, finishing with their worst record in 10 years and losing Matthews to a torn MCL in March, which eventually cost general manager Brad Treliving his job. Now, after installing John Chayka as his replacement earlier today, a list of daunting tasks awaits him without the guarantee of a first-round pick, which they’ll only retain if Tuesday’s lottery balls keep them within the top five.
Settle The Coaching Question
Chayka still has nearly two months until the opening of free agency in July, so he’ll have plenty of run-up to make player personnel decisions. The more pressing matter is the future of Craig Berube, who just wrapped up his second season behind Toronto’s bench with a 20-win regression. It would be surprising to see Chayka, who was aggressive with limited resources during his time atop the Coyotes’ front office, not move to bring in a new voice behind the bench. Doing so sooner rather than later is paramount, with a pair of high-profile, late-season fired candidates still available in Bruce Cassidy and Patrick Roy.
Seeing Berube remain behind the bench would be especially shocking, given how analytics-forward Chayka is. Even amid last season’s success, the Maple Leafs were middle of the pack in 5-on-5 expected goals share (49.8%) and were even worse in the playoffs, per MoneyPuck. This season, that number tumbled to a 30th-ranked 45.6% while their actual results followed suit, finishing 16th in goals for per game (3.07) but second-worst in goals against (3.60) and worst in shots against (32.4) by a significant margin.
Berube still has two years left on his contract, which he signed in 2024 to replace Sheldon Keefe. Given Toronto’s virtually unlimited financial resources, that’s not a concern for them, but it is indicative of just how quickly the franchise’s momentum has changed.
Solidify A Long-Term Plan
The Leafs’ two remaining “franchise” forwards after Marner’s departure, Matthews and William Nylander, have both expressed uncertainty about their futures if the team’s next GM opts for a full-scale rebuild rather than a short-term reload. Presenting them – particularly Matthews, who’s much closer to unrestricted free agency in 2028 – with a long-term vision needs to be higher on Chayka’s list so he can plan his offseason accordingly.
For a team whose draft pick and prospect cupboards are so bare, opting for a long-term route that Matthews and Nylander aren’t enthused about should immediately trigger trade conversations. Whether a deal of that magnitude could be cobbled together quickly enough to transpire by the draft is a different question entirely, but it’s a possibility all sides need to prepare themselves for (or definitively rule out) depending on Chayka’s vision.
They simply can’t afford a situation like Marner’s, where his signing rights as a pending UFA were sold for pennies on the dollar. They have plenty of cap space for next season, but a thin free agent market to spend it on. Matthews and Nylander could likely be appeased by a clear-cut plan of attack that gets them back to playoff/championship contention by the end of Matthews’ deal two years from now, but if that’s not something Chayka is confident in being able to achieve, he’ll be thrust into making one, if not multiple, of the most franchise-altering trades in recent memory.
Consider Goaltending Options
Toronto’s goals-against regression had more to do with team defense than goaltending, but it’s not as if their netminding was particularly inspiring. A year after serving as arguably the league’s most efficient goaltending tandem, Anthony Stolarz and Joseph Woll were both decidedly below average in 2025-26. Woll was “good” for -6.6 goals saved above expected in 39 outings while Stolarz had a -6.7 mark in 26 games amid another injury-plagued season, per MoneyPuck. This was, of course, after Treliving had locked Stolarz into a seemingly now ill-advised four-year, $15MM extension that begins next season.
That $3.75MM cap hit isn’t much of an eyesore on its own. Stolarz has long been one of the league’s better backups, and it stands he’ll rebound to some degree. But Toronto’s bright spot between the pipes this season was third-stringer Dennis Hildeby, who was excellent when stepping in during Stolarz and Woll’s various absences. Despite a 5-7-4 record, he managed a .912 SV% in 14 starts and six relief appearances to save a raucous 10.5 goals above expected.
Notably, Hildeby loses his waiver exemption next season. He won’t be able to head to the AHL without risking a claim. Still just 24 years old, that’s a fate the Leafs are surely looking to avoid. Chayka’s analytical bent means Hildeby likely won’t be the name on the way out if Chayka decides that carrying three goalies next season isn’t prudent.
However, there’s a strong argument to be made that staying the course is the best path forward. Stolarz’s ever-persistent injury concerns, despite his high ceiling, make a perfectly strong argument for carrying a third netminder, particularly with all three on affordable deals that would only total up to $8.25MM against the cap.
Toronto did briefly explore moving Stolarz prior to the trade deadline, but he stayed put. He’d almost surely be the name on the move if Chayka does move in that direction, but with a 16-team no-trade list, his options will be limited.
Refresh The Blue Line
Treliving leaves behind an overpaid, sluggish defense corps in Toronto. Obvious, easy-to-trade candidates are hard to come by. With seven names already signed to one-way deals for next season, pending UFAs Matt Benning and Troy Stecher are almost sure candidates to walk.
Outside of that, they have three 2027 UFAs in Brandon Carlo, Simon Benoit, and Philippe Myers. Only Carlo will fetch any significant value, and even then, it won’t be close to the potentially top-10 pick they’ll end up sending to the Bruins to acquire him at the 2025 deadline. Moving Morgan Rielly‘s $7.5MM cap hit should be of some intrigue, but with a no-movement clause, it could prove impossible – especially with Toronto no longer being in a severe cap crunch to force a move. There’s also something to be said for the fact that he’s still Toronto’s best goal-scoring D-man, despite his increasingly obvious skating and defensive deficiencies.
It’s here where Chayka’s hiring appears most targeted. He made a few shrewd blue-line acquisitions during his tenure in Arizona, often by taking on undesirable contracts that teams weren’t properly valuing or using. Jason Demers and Alex Goligoski were particularly effective pickups for short bursts. With such limited capital to trade from, though, he’ll need to pull out some “Moneyball”-style pickups to get the most out of Toronto’s defensive depth.
Image courtesy of John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images.
PHR Mailbag: Jets, Blackhawks, Non-Playoff Teams, Presidents’ Trophy Curse, Match-Fixing
Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include Chicago’s long-term goalie situation, the Presidents’ Trophy ‘curse’, and more. (It was also set to feature a discussion on Dylan Holloway’s next contract with a six-year, $7.75MM AAV prediction but the Blues got ahead of that one.) If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s column while we’ll have one more mailbag from this latest call for questions next weekend.
Cla23: Can the Jets actually find a 2C in free agency? Can Brad Lambert and Isak Rosen be second-line players with Perfetti?
By the literal wording of your question, yes, the Jets can find a player who could center their second line in free agency. I’m just not sure that player will be second-line-caliber, however.
Back in March, our Ethan Hetu took a look at the upcoming center UFA class. The marquee names are Charlie Coyle (who had a solid year in Columbus but some iffier seasons before that) and Evgeni Malkin (who isn’t leaving Pittsburgh for Winnipeg). The next tier were Boone Jenner (probably more of a 3C at this point and he plays a lot on the wing), Scott Laughton (who spent a lot of time on the fourth line while with Toronto), and Jonathan Toews (who wound up going from the 2C at one point to the 4C role with the Jets). It goes downhill from there. Unless they win a bidding war for Coyle, they’re going to have a hard time filling that spot through the UFA market.
Lambert had top-six upside when he was drafted if everything panned out development-wise and even after his first year in Manitoba, he still had it. The last two years have been a struggle though, even with him securing a regular role down the stretch. It’s possible that he gets to a second-line level but I wouldn’t be predicting it. Rosen at least has a better track record of being a top-line threat in the minors but there’s a reason Buffalo never gave him any sort of extended look. They thought he was one of those (to borrow a baseball term) Quad-A guys who are too good for the minors but not good enough to play an impactful role at the top level. I don’t think he’s a second liner either but maybe a third liner with some offensive skill could still be doable. That would still help a bit, at least.
Unclemike1526: The Hawks’ goalie situation is in a transition period right now. Knight is now a known commodity but is he a definite 1 or a 1A in a perfect world? He has solid technique but isn’t the biggest guy in the world. I was on the fence about Gajan but after seeing him in the NCAA tournament, I’m on board. Less sure about Commesso and Soderblom is bad. Who is the best Scandinavian G the Hawks could draft in the 2nd round who could play in the SHL and not have Gajan and him trip over each other? Thanks.
I think it’s fair to say that the Blackhawks view Spencer Knight as their starter of the future. I think he can be that for them. He’s not going to be a Vezina contender year after year but if he’s a top-10 or top-15 goalie in his prime, I think they’d be just fine with that. I suspect they think they have the backup in the organization at the moment already. I expect Arvid Soderblom to get one more look and give Drew Commesso another full year in the minors where he can split time with Adam Gajan. Commesso then might get a shot at the backup role in 2027-28 with the team pivoting to a Plan B if he isn’t ready or struggles. Gajan will probably need some time.
As for the draft, this is not a particularly good group of Scandinavian netminders. Douglas Nilsson and Viggo Tamm should be picked but the second round might be early for them. I like the idea of adding another goalie at some point, however, to stagger the prospects a bit. I’d be more inclined to look to Russia where Dmitri Borichev and Yegor Rybkin stand out. Some rankings have Borichev as a possible late first-rounder while teams will see Rybkin’s size (6’7) and want to use an early pick on him; he could be a second-rounder as a result.
random comment guy: It’s time for KD and the Hawks to poop or get off the pot. Do you see any big signings this offseason? Do you see them making any big trades? If they don’t get one of the top two picks, who do you see them drafting (or trading it away)?
I don’t expect any big signings from Chicago this year as frankly, there aren’t many players available who would qualify as big signings. Alex Tuch would be a nice addition to the top line and they have the cap space to get it done but unless they’re well above the market value, I could see Tuch wanting to sign with more of a contending team if he doesn’t ultimately re-up with Buffalo. Darren Raddysh is the top blueliner available. I think he stays in Tampa Bay, though, which would take him off the table. I could, however, see them trying to sign someone like John Carlson to a pricey short-term deal to help insulate and mentor Artyom Levshunov and Sam Rinzel while dragging up the floor of the group a bit. Whether it’s him or someone else, I suspect they’re going to try to bring in some veteran upgrades.
I think GM Kyle Davidson will try to make a big swing on the trade front, however. When I was doing their Offseason Checklist, the one theme that kept coming up was their young depth and deep draft pick cupboards. Those are great to have but not all of those pieces are going to be part of Chicago’s future. Packaging a promising young center, maybe a young defender, and a high draft pick is a package that should land them a long-term piece of significance. Whether it’s on the wing or the back end remains to be seen but if there’s a big fish that fits the age group of their core who moves this year, I expect the Blackhawks to be big bidders.
On the draft front, I don’t see them trading the pick away if they’re not in the top two. That is, unless they’re getting about a 20 or 21-year-old high draft pick who is already established in the NHL and the other team probably wouldn’t do that. Caleb Malhotra is quickly rising up draft boards but center is their strong spot (unless they move some players out in trades) so I don’t think they’d lean there. Not knowing where exactly they land in this scenario, I could see Keaton Verhoeff being the target. They like college players and big, all-around right-shot defenders are hard to come by (even if they already have two). In terms of who the most valuable asset could be beyond the top two, Verhoeff fits the profile if he develops to his full potential so I think they take the surplus there and deal with the ‘problem’ of maybe having too many down the road with a big trade.
Pyramid Headcrab: What teams that missed the playoffs this year do you suspect will git ‘er done next season?
Who’s most likely to make a brain-dead long-term signing that handcuffs the team?
Who’s going to have the most ill-advised rebuild?
For the first question, it’s hard not to pick the Panthers. They’ve earned the benefit of the doubt and can’t possibly have more injury woes next season than this year. As long as they get their goaltending settled, I think they’re back in. I’m intrigued to see if Rick Bowness’ culture change promise yields some positive results; if so, I suspect the Blue Jackets can get in this time. Something tells me the Sharks will make a big swing this summer that could sneak them into a Wild Card spot. I’m tempted to put the Jets here (under the ‘things can’t go this bad again’ category) but I want to see what they can do in the offseason. Really, all of these picks, other than maybe Florida, could change depending on the roster activity over the next couple of months.
For the second question, this isn’t necessarily as likely to happen moving forward given the big jumps coming to the salary cap. One bad signing shouldn’t handcuff a team unless it’s already cap-strapped. Upon my first read, the Rangers and Kraken came to mind as teams that might make a desperate move that backfires but they have the cap flexibility to overcome a bad signing like that. The only teams that can be handcuffed in this question are those that are the tightest to the 2026-27 Upper Limit. Of those, I’d have to pick Vegas. They swing big all the time but have limited flexibility. Eventually, they could miss on one and with so much of their team locked up long-term, missing on a big swing would hurt them more than others.
I’ll go with Vancouver. They’ve been directionless for the last couple of years and now have a lot of spots to fill along with some above-market contracts that are going to be hard to move. They’ll fill one of those needs at the draft but it’s going to take a while if all goes right for them to turn things around. With how odd this GM search has been, I’m not overly confident that there won’t be some stumbles along the way that lengthens the rebuild.
Nha Trang: Hah, this isn’t a question so much as an observation: how many of the pundits who bleat about the so-called “President’s Trophy curse” have bothered to check on the Cup-winning odds of the *second* place regular season team? Or the third? Or the fourth?
The President’s Trophy has been awarded 40 times in total and we know the subsequent Cup winner for 39 of those; we’ll see how Colorado fares in June, should they get that far. Let’s look at the distribution and percentages (rounded to the nearest tenth so no, it doesn’t quite add to precisely 100%) of Cup winners over that time based on their regular-season finishes.
1st: 8 winners (20.5%)
2nd: 4 winners (10.3%)
3rd: 3 winners (7.7%)
4th: 6 winners (15.4%)
5th: 4 winners (10.3%)
6th: 3 winners (7.7%)
7th: 4 winners (10.3%)
8th: 2 winners (5.1%)
9th: 1 winner (2.6%)
10th: 1 winner (2.6%)
11th: 1 winner (2.6%)
12th: 1 winner (2.6%)
13th: 1 winner (2.6%)
14th: 0 winners
15th: 0 winners
16th: 0 winners
If you ask me, first overall is still statistically the best spot to be, even if it’s still a roughly four-in-five chance that they won’t win the Cup. I will note, however, that since the salary cap came into effect, only two Presidents’ Trophy winners have won (Detroit in 2008 and Chicago in 2013). I’m not one who subscribes to the ‘curse’ theory given the general parity in the NHL but 12 years and counting since a first-overall team won the Stanley Cup is something.
Jolly Roger: Has there been any investigation, suspicion, controversy or rumor about match-fixing in the NHL or at any other level in professional, collegial, or amateur hockey in any country, including misconducts by officials?
Within the last few years, a pair of wingers were investigated and cleared amidst gambling allegations: Vancouver’s Evander Kane and Ottawa’s Arthur Kaliyev, the latter coming just this season. That isn’t the exact same thing as match-fixing but some like to connect the two.
Outside the NHL, there was a Belarus Extraliga game in which seven players admitted to being approached about manipulating the outcome of the game and that they accepted. The players – five Belarusian and two Russian – were suspended by the IIHF but their names were not published. The incident occurred in a matchup between Dynamo Molodechno and Mogilyov. Five months later, IK Bjorkloven in Sweden’s Allsvenskan level (second-tier) was investigated amongst match-fixing allegations but was ultimately cleared. They had a 3-0 lead in the game before allowing eight unanswered to Mora.
Photo courtesy of Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images.
Offseason Checklist: New York Rangers
The offseason has arrived for half of the league’s teams that aren’t taking part in the playoffs. Accordingly, it’s now time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months. Next up is a look at the Rangers.
It’s fair to say that this season didn’t go to plan for the Rangers. Sure, they were coming off missing the playoffs but the hiring of Mike Sullivan indicated that the expectation was a return to the postseason. Instead, they finished last in the Eastern Conference and released another letter to the fans before moving away Artemi Panarin for future assets. GM Chris Drury’s checklist this summer involves continuing in that direction although there remains a chance that they look for a quicker fix.
Re-Sign Or Move Schneider
When Braden Schneider was the 19th overall pick back in 2020, the Rangers were hoping that they had a core defender on their hands. But after some stagnation early in his career and a tight cap situation, the two sides worked out a bridge deal two summers ago. Since then, with their struggles, Schneider’s name has come up in trade speculation although they didn’t pull the trigger on a move.
Now, the time for kicking the can down the road should be over. Schneider’s contract is up this summer and he’ll be owed a $2.64MM qualifying offer with arbitration rights. They’ll tender the offer but what comes next is the harder decision.
If Drury feels that Schneider should be part of the post-rebuild core, this is the time to sign him. It’d take a long-term deal worth more than double that qualifying offer but if he’s one of the long-term building blocks, then that price tag is justifiable. If not, then this is likely the right time to move him. The acquiring team then works on the long-term pact and sends the Rangers what would likely be another young player of some significance (potentially a winger with some club control to help replace Panarin). Doing a short-term deal would allow them to kick the can down the road a little longer but at the risk of hurting his trade value.
There are multiple veterans for whom a trade makes more sense than keeping; we’ll get to one of those next. But Schneider is one of the few toss-ups. They need to pick a direction with him, either commit to him for the long haul or move him out for another piece who will be around for a while.
Make The Trocheck Move
Beyond Panarin whose exit from the team was telegraphed long before it happened, the Ranger whose name was in the rumor mill the most was center Vincent Trocheck. By all accounts, there were some big offers made before the trade deadline but Drury opted to hold him for now, presumably thinking better ones could be coming this summer when more teams are looking to buy. Frankly, there’s some logic to the idea.
Now, it’s time to see if that bet was the right one. In theory, New York should be poised to capitalize here on the trade front. The list of top-six UFA centers is rather small this summer. It starts with Charlie and ends with Coyle. The list of teams looking for a top-six center? More than ten times as long. One team can ideally fill that spot by signing Charlie Coyle while the rest will have to try to do so on the trade front where supply is limited and demand is extremely high.
Trocheck could very well be the best center that gets made available this summer. (We’ll see what Alex Steen’s plans are for Robert Thomas, who could ultimately stick around.) Granted, there is a 12-team no-trade list that could affect things and Trocheck himself noted before the deadline that Western teams are on that list. However, there are still plenty of Eastern Conference teams who will be looking to upgrade down the middle, certainly enough to drum up a bidding war.
While the East Coast limitation increases the odds that Trocheck could be moved within the Metropolitan Division, this should be about getting the best return regardless of where it comes from. It’s a package that should include a first-round pick, a high-end prospect, and at least one other element, potentially a roster player to help offset some of the money (although Trocheck’s $5.625MM for three more years should be affordable for a lot of teams). It certainly feels like it’s time to cash in on that high demand.
Make Room For Youth
One thing that the Rangers did down the stretch was start to use their youngsters more. Gabe Perreault got a bigger role while young forwards Adam Sykora and Jaroslav Chmelar made strong first impressions. Drew Fortescue got his feet wet on the back end as well. And with that extra speed and hustle in the lineup, they were a lot more respectable down the stretch, winning six of ten games to close the season.
This isn’t a situation of reading too much into what amounts to garbage time performance. But it’s an acknowledgement that the Rangers need to see what some of their youngsters can do. With the belief that they’d like this to be more of a retool than a long-term rebuild, it’s critical that the team finds out which of these youngsters are going to be part of the core group at that time. The only way to do that is to give them a chance to play at the NHL level.
That means that this summer, the focus shouldn’t be on re-signing or replacing Jonny Brodzinski or Conor Sheary up front; those spots can be left for some of those youngsters. Is Matt Rempe (still just 23) or Adam Edstrom (now 25) still in the plans or are they movable? Would Taylor Raddysh’s or Urho Vaakanainen’s role be better served by more of a prospect?
This isn’t a case of bringing in half a dozen youngsters. That will cause a different set of challenges. But having a few spots available at the start of the year to use for evaluation would give the team a lot more information about the future. To do that, they may yet still need to move out a veteran or two.
Add Goaltending Insurance
There is one other roster spot that appears likely to be turned over to a youngster, that being between the pipes. With Jonathan Quick retiring, prospect Dylan Garand appears to be in line to get a shot at the full-time backup spot behind Igor Shesterkin. While it’s not ideal that a soon-to-be-24-year-old will be looking at limited minutes behind one of the NHL’s top netminders, Garand has to pass through waivers next season and it’s not a guarantee that he’d pass through unclaimed should they try to sneak him down.
But even if the plan ultimately is to re-sign Garand (a pending RFA) and have him in the number two role, they need a Plan B. If he struggles mightily in training camp, turning to midseason signing Spencer Martin isn’t exactly a viable option as he has struggled in his limited action at the top level.
Accordingly, this is the one position where a veteran addition could be useful. The ideal fit would be a veteran who could cover the backup role if Garand struggles or pass through waivers himself if Garand is ready for the job and serve as insurance with Hartford. Basically, the type of role they once envisioned for Louis Domingue but someone perhaps a little more proven. Buffalo signed James Reimer for that role for 2024-25 (though he never made it through waivers for their plan to work). Someone around that caliber of player would be a worthwhile addition, even if it goes against the rest of the goal of getting younger.
Photo courtesy of Danny Wild-Imagn Images.
Offseason Checklist: Calgary Flames
The offseason has arrived for half of the league’s teams that aren’t taking part in the playoffs. Accordingly, it’s now time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months. Next up is a look at Calgary.
After a late-season push in 2024-25, there were some in Calgary who hoped that the Flames would be able to take another step forward and get back to the playoffs. Instead, the firm realities of a rebuild set in, with the team ultimately jettisoning their two top defensemen and number one center. There is a lot that GM Craig Conroy still has to do although with 2026-27 expected to be another tough year in the standings, the biggest work isn’t in the cards this summer.
Keep Stockpiling
Last summer, the Flames only had one extra draft pick but it was an important one in the form of a first-round selection, albeit at the end of the first round. It was the second straight year they had an extra pick in the opening round after nabbing Zayne Parekh and Matvei Gridin in 2024.
As things stand, that will extend to three years as Calgary has an extra first-round selection (Vegas), plus three extra second-rounders that in theory could be packaged to try to land another day one pick. They also have extra firsts in 2027 and 2028.
That’s a strong foundation of draft picks to work with although that’s only part of the battle. They also need to keep adding more drafted prospects that are closer to being NHL-ready to their pool. Those players would then represent the next wave as more veterans are cleared out over the next couple of years before the high volume of draft picks yield players that will eventually be ready to push for playing time. Calgary has done well there lately as well with the additions of Abram Wiebe, Jonathan Castagna, and Tyson Gross over the last few months.
Will there be a logjam down the road? That’s the ideal plan, giving the Flames extra depth to deal from at the time that they should be flipping the switch from their rebuild to trying to contend. So, for now, there should continue to be an emphasis on not just quality but also quantity, allowing a deep stockpile to get even deeper. Continuing to add center depth would be particularly wise.
Cash In On Coleman
Heading into the trade deadline, there were questions of how many more veterans would be heading out the door, joining Rasmus Andersson who had already been moved to Vegas. MacKenzie Weegar ultimately was moved to Utah while Nazem Kadri wound up back in Colorado. But there was one veteran of significance who was drawing significant interest who didn’t move, winger Blake Coleman.
While there’s something to be said for having some quality veterans to work with a young core group, there’s also something to be said for not cashing in one of their top trade chips. Yes, his contract is on the pricier side for a player who has only reached the 40-point plateau once, but with the salary cap set for a big increase and a fairly thin UFA market, $4.9MM for one season is a price tag that a lot of teams should be able to afford. (And if not, Calgary gets two salary retention slots back on July 1st which could be used to get something done.)
Down those retention slots back in March, it’s understandable that Conroy opted to pass on moving him as in theory, the return should be better with part of the contract paid down. It’s also understandable that a team would want some quality veterans working with an increasingly younger core group. But Coleman is also one of the few veterans remaining that could plausibly yield a return of significance. It’d be hard to pass that up for extra mentorship in the room. Yes, they could wait things out and see how things look at next year’s deadline, but if there’s a strong return out there this summer, that might be the right time to take it.
Add Serviceable Veteran Defender
If Conroy is concerned about a dearth of quality veteran leaders in the dressing room following the recent exodus of players (and the potential move of Coleman), there’s nothing stopping him from trying to add one via trade or free agency. And if he wants to do that, looking at the back end would be a good idea.
While Calgary did receive veterans back in the Weegar (Zach Whitecloud) and Weegar (Olli Maatta) deals, neither of those players are ideal top-half pieces in the lineup. Whitecloud, meanwhile, had a strong market at the trade deadline and is a plausible candidate himself to get dealt over the summer if the Flames want to cash in on his elevated trade value. Those two were basically top-pairing players down the stretch with Kevin Bahl getting nearly 22 minutes a night as well.
Meanwhile, their depth isn’t the greatest either. While they have high hopes for Zayne Parekh, and Yan Kuznetsov impressed this season, Brayden Pachal and Joel Hanley are next on the depth chart. Those are more fringe/depth pieces than full-fledged regulars. They could be upgraded on with another serviceable veteran or two that raises the floor of the group to move it to more of a by-committee approach which probably better suits this roster.
Fortunately, depth defenders are a lot easier to find than top-four pieces, ones they’ll have to trade for at some point when they’re closer to ending their rebuild. But a good veteran or two on the third pairing can help fill some of the leadership gap and perhaps even give them some chips to move closer to next year’s deadline. While rebuilding teams often aren’t looking to get older, Calgary could buck that trend with the right veteran blueliner or two.
Work On Frost Extension
Last summer, the Flames elected not to work out a long-term contract with then-RFA center Morgan Frost. Having just acquired him from Philadelphia earlier in the season, they wanted to get a better sense of how he’d fit. Accordingly, he inked a second bridge contract, a two-year, $8.75MM agreement. On July 1st, he’ll be extension-eligible and now armed with more information about his fit on the roster, Conroy should be looking to get something worked out.
Frost only managed a dozen points in 32 games after being acquired last season. However, a full training camp and season in Calgary’s lineup seemed to get him going again. Frost played in all 82 games this season for the first time in his career, scoring a career-best 22 goals while adding 21 assists in 15:30 per night of playing time. He also won nearly 57% of his draws, also a new personal best.
While Frost doesn’t profile as a top-line pivot by any stretch, he should have plenty of years ahead of him in a middle-six role. While that’s not necessarily the type of player teams will generally want to commit a long-term contract to, Calgary’s dearth of center options could force their hand. Kadri is now gone while captain Mikael Backlund is 37 and is nearing the end of his career (though he begins a two-year deal next season). Ryan Strome is also in the fold but is more of a reclamation type of project.
Yes, the Flames have high hopes for prospects Cole Reschny, Cullen Potter, and newcomer Castagna. However, those players are a while away from making meaningful NHL contributions. Frost is a logical fit to try to keep around for a few extra years beyond 2027 to serve as a bridge to some of those prospects.
Given that he will be an unrestricted free agent next summer and the big projected increases to the salary cap, it’s fair to say that Frost will be in line for a bump up on his current deal. An increase into the $6MM-plus range feels doable and with their long-term cap situation looking quite strong at the moment, it’s a price tag they can afford. Rather than wait it out another year, it might make more sense for the Flames to get this done this summer.
Photo courtesy of Sergei Belski-Imagn Images.
Evaluating Trade Deadline Acquisitions By Non-Playoff Teams
The Stanley Cup Playoffs are in full swing, but with half the league looking ahead, and more soon to join them, it’s time to look back at the non-playoff clubs and evaluate their moves. Whether an aggressive swing on a rental, or a more modest “win now, and later” deal, how are their trades looking?
Los Angeles’ blockbuster acquisition of Artemi Panarin didn’t yield a single playoff win, nor did the Warren Foegele trade help Ottawa avoid a sweep at the hands of his former club in Carolina. Yet both the Kings and Senators at least qualified for the postseason. What about those who did not? In order to meet the criteria below, the following March acquisitions had to have clear “win now” intentions. How did each of these players fare with their new clubs up to game 82, and what comes next?
One of the bigger deals of deadline day, Detroit finally supplemented their blue line, trading for St. Louis’ Justin Faulk in exchange for first and third-round picks in 2026, Justin Holl, and unsigned KHL prospect Dmitri Bychelnikov.
In 17 games with Detroit, Faulk’s corsi share at five-on-five actually dipped slightly from his time on the bottom-feeding Blues, to 44.8%. His ice time dropped over two minutes to 20:15, the lowest average for the veteran in six years. A second-pairing option alongside Ben Chiarot, Faulk’s powerplay role dropped to PP2 behind Moritz Seider. All told, the Wings closed out the campaign with a 6-10-3 record after acquiring Faulk, and as is no secret, they missed the playoffs for the 10th consecutive season. The 34-year-old defenseman is signed through next season at $6.5MM, at least not a rental in a trade which didn’t move the needle.
Meanwhile, the Blues will enjoy another first rounder, currently 15th overall. St. Louis did the 34-year-old Holl right and skated him in nine contests, his first NHL action of the campaign. Recording two points, his $3.4MM contract will come off the books this summer, and there’s a strong possibility the veteran of 405 games saw his last NHL duty as a Blue. Regardless, St. Louis likely came out on top based on the strong first rounder alone, a pick which will always be tied to Detroit based on their selection’s eventual development.
Sticking with St. Louis, they netted more assets, sending captain Brayden Schenn to the Islanders for another first and third round pair in 2026, along with Jonathan Drouin and Marcus Gidlöf.
A steep price to pay for a 34-year-old whose days as a top center are long behind, Schenn regained some scoring touch on Long Island, posting six goals and 11 points in 19 games. A Kyle Palmieri replacement of sorts, Schenn got power play time and played on the wing. Still signed through 2027-28 at $6.5MM, the veteran won’t be going anywhere.
After struggling with the Islanders, Drouin got a fresh start with the Blues, recording three points in nine games. His contract runs through next year, at a suboptimal $4MM, but as the franchise turns to the future, he will work to rebuild his stock. On the flip side, a buyout would not be a shock.
Going 8-11 after bringing in Schenn and missing the playoffs, thankfully for New York, St. Louis will take Colorado’s first round selection, originally acquired in the Brock Nelson trade. Somewhat softening the blow, it’s a reasonable price as long as Schenn can maintain top six production for at least one more year.
A player already making the most of his contract year, Bobby McMann’s Seattle tenure leaves his free agent market only more fascinating. The late-blooming undrafted winger was dealt from Toronto, fetching them a conditional second rounder in 2027 along with a fourth round selection in this summer’s draft.
With the Kraken, McMann cemented himself as a true top six scorer, his ice time jumping to just under 18 minutes a night, by far the highest of his career. The power forward notched 10 goals in just 18 games, shooting at a 17.2% clip.
Despite McMann’s hot streak, the Kraken won just one regulation game out of their last 16 games, a brutal stretch which doomed their playoff hopes. A strong fit, they’d be wise to re-sign the 29-year-old, but there’s no telling what McMann will be offered on the open market. As for Toronto, a second rounder is a nice return for a player they were prepared to lose for nothing, however, it won’t be much help for a team desperate to turn things around fast.
Moving along, the Columbus Blue Jackets acquired Conor Garland from Vancouver for a third round choice in 2026 and a second rounder in 2028.
Clearly with no Canucks players to analyze yet, it falls entirely on Garland and his production with the Jackets. The 30-year-old netted five goals in 21 games with Columbus, nearly matching his seven in 50 contests as a Canuck, although his usage dropped nearly six whole minutes. Still signed until 2029-30 at $6MM, it’s a deal which raises serious question marks for the Jackets. He and Mathieu Olivier share the distinction of the longest signed forwards on a group composed of mostly younger players, and for better or for worse, they’re banking on his 50-point production moving ahead.
Back to Detroit, they brought back a familiar face, David Perron from the Senators for a conditional fourth round pick. The 37-year-old’s usage was relatively the same, but he tallied just three points (all goals) in 16 games. Perron will hit the market this offseason, with the chance that he played his 1,239th and final NHL game. With no conditions to worry about on Detroit’s side, they’ll be lacking a fourth rounder in June, but it’s nothing to lose sleep over after a reunion with a respected veteran.
Rounding out the group, the Washington Capitals dealt for Timothy Liljegren from San Jose for a 2026 fourth round selection. A team so often known for their reclamation projects, it wasn’t the cleanest turnaround for GM Mike Grier, who gave up a third round pick to Toronto for the former top prospect. Still, it was a fine return for a player not in future plans after a worthwhile flyer taken.
The 26-year-old made just four appearances in Washington, not recording any stats. If that is it for his Caps tenure, there could still be a market for the righty as a bottom pairing option, still offering some untapped potential, although time is wearing thin. Either way, there was little to lose, as at the time Washington was still intent on making the playoffs, with a John Carlson-sized gap on their blue line.
With none of the trades above made the difference in their buyers making the postseason, Faulk, Schenn, and Garland will try to prove their organizations right in 2026-27, while their fans will hope no draft steals in Buffalo will lead to scrutiny in years to come. McMann and Liljegren could depart for nothing in return, leaving short tenures. Finally, Perron missed an opportunity to add to his 110 playoff games, which would have happened should he have stayed in Ottawa, but he may have put the final touches on an impressive 19-year-career back with an Original Six franchise.
Image Credit: Brad Penner-Imagn Images (Schenn)
Image Credit: Kevin Ng-Imagn Images (McMann)
Free Agent Stock Watch: Right Wing
With the regular season behind us, player movement between teams is now almost entirely restricted. Teams are in the thick of hotly contested playoff series, and many players with expiring contracts have either concluded their campaigns or are playing crucially important games. The players still in action are playing games that could help determine what magnitude of contract they might receive in the summer.
In a multi-part series, we’ll take a look at each position group of the upcoming free agent class, and do a rundown on how those upcoming unrestricted free agents have performed this year. Which players have increased their odds of scoring a jackpot on the open market? Which players have potentially hurt their earning potential with their play? What are the stakes for these free agents in the playoff games that remain? We’ll break it all down here.
The Marquee Names
Alex Tuch, Buffalo Sabres
As numerous pending free agents have signed extensions to remain with their current team, Tuch has emerged as one of the very best players remaining on the upcoming free agent market. While there is still a chance that the Sabres could come to an agreement with Tuch, who is repped by Brian and Scott Bartlett, the most recent reporting from the regular season indicates there is still a gap in those negotiations.
Unless substantive progress is made in those talks, it appears Tuch, a native of the Central New York region, which is just east of Buffalo, could be playing out his final campaign with the Sabres.
If he does hit the open market, he’d be one of the most in-demand players available. Tuch was a focal point of the Sabres’ return from the Vegas Golden Knights in the Jack Eichel trade, and has blossomed into a legitimate first-line winger for the team. He scored a career-high 36 goals last season and has scored at least 20 goals in each full season he’s played in Buffalo.
He concluded 2025-26 with 33 goals and 66 points in the regular season, and has two goals and two assists in the Sabres’ first three playoff contests.
With the Sabres hoping get past the Boston Bruins and make a deep playoff run, Tuch is in a position where he could author some big moments with the entire league watching.
While Tuch has been in form, there are factors beyond just his play that are contributing to his immense earning potential this summer. Firstly, the number of players who have signed extensions and taken themselves off of the free agent market means Tuch will be one of the few borderline star-level players left on the open market. Secondly, the sharp rise in the salary cap upper limit means there are quite a few teams with cash to burn this summer.
That means more teams will have the financial bandwidth to enter a bidding war for Tuch. The more teams that aggressively pursue an unrestricted free agent, the more money that free agent is often able to make. That bodes well for Tuch.
Patrick Kane, Detroit Red Wings
Like many other aging stars who have already made massive amounts of money in their career, Kane has prioritized on-ice fit and stability over maximizing his earnings in his last few trips to free agency. He found a good fit for himself in Detroit, and the Red Wings would not have come close to ending the league’s longest playoff drought without his efforts.
Now 37 years old, Kane likely has a place in Detroit for as long as he wants to continue playing. His contracts are loaded with performance bonuses, and it’s likely his next deal, in whatever form it takes, will be laden with bonuses as well. While he’s not as tied to Detroit as other similar free agents are to their teams, such as Alex Ovechkin with the Capitals or Jamie Benn with the Stars, it’s tough to imagine Kane entertaining a full free agency process at this stage of his career.
The Solid Contributors
Bobby McMann, Seattle Kraken
NHL history is littered with offensive players who have changed teams mid-season and had slow starts in their new NHL homes. So much of creating offense is about chemistry, and the inherent challenge that faces these players is the fact that they’re entering lineups with teammates whose styles and tendencies are entirely unfamiliar to them.
With that said, some players change teams and find themselves able to hit the ground running despite those inherent challenges; Bobby McMann is one of those players. In his 18 games in Seattle, he scored 10 goals and 14 points, bringing his full-season production to 29 goals, 46 points.
The 29-year-old was dealt from the Maple Leafs as the team could not reach an agreement with him on a contract extension. It was reported that McMann’s asking price on his next deal, said to be over $5MM per year, was a little above where Toronto was willing to go.
Having authored a second consecutive season with at least 20 goals, it appears McMann has given himself a real chance to earn the kind of contract offer Toronto reportedly wasn’t willing to extend him. While he’s not a one-to-one comparable, the fact that Kiefer Sherwood was able to earn a $5.75MM AAV on a five-year term has helped McMann’s case for his next deal. He’s an endearing winger, a player whose hard-working style allowed him to grab hold of an NHL role.
As an undrafted product of Colgate University, which is a quality ECAC program but not one with an overwhelming record of producing NHL players, McMann faced somewhat long odds of becoming an impactful NHL player. But with his compete level, work ethic, and knack for finding the back of the net, McMann managed to beat those odds and become a valuable NHL goal scorer. After making just over $1MM on his last deal, McMann has positioned himself to land a massive pay raise as a free agent this summer.
Vladimir Tarasenko, Minnesota Wild
While Tarasenko’s star has certainly faded since his trade from St. Louis in 2023, he remains a capable NHL scorer and one of the better offensive options set to be available on the open market this summer. He was a mid-season trade addition in back-to-back years, first with the Rangers and then with the Panthers the following year. In Florida, he showed he could still be a valuable player on a contending team, scoring 14 points in 19 regular-season games and chipping in nine points on the Panthers’ run to their first ever Stanley Cup championship.
Fresh off of the championship, Tarasenko signed a two-year, $4.75MM AAV deal with the Detroit Red Wings. But after he only managed 11 goals and 33 points in Detroit, his lowest scoring total in a healthy season of his career, Tarasenko was dealt to the Wild for future considerations. The Red Wings, it appeared, were content to be rid of Tarasenko’s $4.75MM cap hit without needing compensation from the Wild.
That deal has paid dividends for Minnesota, as the Russian forward finished the regular season with 23 goals and 47 points in 75 games. At 34 years old, though, getting term on his next deal could prove difficult. Going on another deep playoff run – provided the Wild can get past the Dallas Stars in the first round – would certainly help position him to potentially get one.
Mats Zuccarello, Minnesota Wild
When the Wild originally signed Zuccarello, back in 2019 during the tenure of former GM Paul Fenton, the deal was largely criticized. Although most outside observers acknowledged Zuccarello was still a quality player, and the $6MM per year price tag was seen as fair, the length of the deal (five years) was met with concern.
ESPN’s Greg Wyshynski wrote at the time that “there’s simply no defendable reason” why the Wild decided to sign Zuccarello for such a long term. The Hockey News’ Ryan Kennedy echoed the sentiment, adding “Zuccarello will eventually wear down and he will still have term on his contract when that happens.”
That concern from the media was not unreasonable, of course, as Zuccarello was into his thirties at that point. But the deal aged fabulously for Minnesota. Fenton’s successor, Bill Guerin, led the team to a quick turnaround, fueled in large part by the arrival of superstar Kirill Kaprizov from the KHL. Zuccarello found instant chemistry with Kaprizov.
After scoring 37 points in his debut campaign in the Twin Cities, Zuccarello managed 35 points in 42 games in 2021-22, Kaprizov’s rookie year.
Since Kaprizov arrived, Zuccarello has enjoyed the best, most productive years of his career even as he’s aged deeper into his thirties. He scored a career-high 79 points in just 70 games in 2021-22, which is a 92-point 82-game scoring pace. He scored 67 points the following year, and managed 63 points (in 69 games) in 2023-24.
His scoring rate has fallen a bit below where it once was as other Wild forwards have emerged as key focal points of the team’s attack (namely 2019 first-rounder Matt Boldy) but has still hovered at a clear top-six rate. This season, Zuccarello scored 15 goals and 54 points in 59 games, his games played total limited by upper-body injuries.
Over the course of his tenure with the Wild, Guerin has shown a willingness to invest in keeping his team’s core intact. His faith in this Wild core has been rewarded this season, without question. Given how well Zuccarello has played, it’d be tough to imagine Guerin letting him walk.
It’s unclear what Zuccarello’s expectations might be in free agency. Assuming he wants to continue his career and play his age-39 season, the fact that Zuccarello is able to be signed with performance bonuses means Minnesota has some flexibility in the route they decide to take with his extension.
Eeli Tolvanen, Seattle Kraken
There are many former top prospects who, after losing their spot on their original team and landing on waivers, have begun a downward spiral in their career. That spiral typically ultimately ends with the player leaving for the European pro ranks or the minor leagues. At one point, Tolvanen appeared to be at risk of following that path.
He was ranked as one of the top prospects in the game in 2018, and broke into the NHL in 2020-21 scoring 11 goals and 22 points in 40 games. But he wasn’t able to build on his rookie season in Nashville, and by late 2022, found himself on the waiver wire. The Kraken, in just their second season in franchise history, placed a claim on Tolvanen. The natural opportunity that comes with playing on an expansion franchise allowed Tolvanen to revive his career trajectory.
While he still isn’t the star he was once projected to be, he has finally begun to deliver some of the offensive upside that had tantalized scouts in years past. He scored 16 goals and 27 points in his first 48 games with the Kraken, and added eight points in 14 playoff games.
That first campaign with the Kraken showed what was to come for Tolvanen. He has become a reliable middle-six goal scorer, hitting a career-high 23 goals last season. This year, he scored 12 goals and 36 points.
Tolvanen has taken steps to round out his game this season, which bodes well for him entering free agency. He didn’t sniff the penalty kill when he began his tenure in Seattle, but is now playing over a minute per game short-handed. In a free agent class short on ascending options, Tolvanen, at 27 years old, will represent a relatively rare commodity.
Oliver Bjorkstrand, Tampa Bay Lightning
For much of his NHL career, Bjorkstrand has been a model of consistency as a second-line scoring forward. The Danish winger has been close to a lock to score at least 20 goals and between 45 and 55 points when healthy, but his fit in Tampa Bay hasn’t been perfect. Despite averaging over three minutes of power play time on ice per game, Bjorkstrand’s production has been below the standard he’s set earlier in his career. Bjorkstrand finished the regular season with 12 goals and 32 points, well below the 21 goals and 46 points he managed last season.
A contributing factor to Bjorkstrand’s decline in production has been his role outside the power play. While he was a top player for Tampa on the man advantage in the regular season, he’s often occupied a bottom-six role at even strength. His 10:30 time on ice per game at even strength is below career bottom-sixers such as Pontus Holmberg and Zemgus Girgensons.
The playoffs have not helped Bjorkstrand’s case. He’s been unable to secure a spot in head coach Jon Cooper’s lineup, serving as a healthy scratch for all three contests thus far. Cooper has even elected to play journeyman Scott Sabourin, who at 33 has played in just 73 career NHL games, over Bjorkstrand.
That puts Bjorkstrand on somewhat shaky ground entering free agency. At 30 years old, he is in a position where he could reasonably get a medium or even long-term deal. But with the way his role has declined in Tampa, he could face a challenge trying to reach his current cap hit, $5.4MM, in free agency.
PHR Mailbag: Predators, Lottery, Hellebuyck, Rookies, Playoff Pressure Players
Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include Nashville’s open GM position, what players have a lot to gain or lose by their playoff performances, and more. If your question doesn’t appear here, watch for it in one of our next two mailbag columns.
Gbear: Who gets the Preds GM job and does Bruno stay or go?
While Barry Trotz is on the way out, I tend to believe his words from earlier this week when he talked about the thought of keeping a lot of this roster intact. That has me leaning toward a candidate that’s a little more predictable in Tom Fitzgerald. While he took some swings toward the end of his tenure in New Jersey, he’s not going to come in saying that they need to execute a full rebuild. I can’t help but wonder if some of the other first-time candidates might be recommending the other direction which might hurt their chances.
I think what also works in Fitzgerald’s favor is that he has held a dual President/GM role before with the Devils. Throughout this long search, it certainly doesn’t sound like the team is looking to hire two separate people for those roles. If that’s the case, having an experienced candidate who can handle both might appeal a little more.
Fitzgerald, of course, is familiar with head coach Andrew Brunette, as he hired him to join the Devils as an assistant coach. Brunette then left a year later to take this job. With what seems like a good history from their one year together and how this group finished the season, I suspect they’d stay conservative and keep the status quo intact for now if it winds up being Fitzgerald getting the job. If things don’t go well in 2026-27, then it would be easier for them to make a change.
rayk: What is your opinion of the draft lottery which is approaching on 5/5? Is having teams like the Islanders and Mammoth move up so many slots as they did in 2025 really help promote league parity?
For me, the lottery is a partial solution to a problem that doesn’t have a great solution to it. Teams that want to tank are going to try to position themselves as low in the standings no matter what the draft order rule is. If it’s straight reverse standings, we’ve seen how bad that can go. The lottery creates some randomness which is fun but the bottom-feeding teams are still going to want to get as low as possible to increase their odds of picking first and ensure they don’t slide down as much. There’s no getting around that.
One solution that is gaining some popularity is the Gold Plan. Named after its inventor, Adam Gold, the idea is that the first pick goes to the team that gets the most points after being eliminated from playoff contention. The PWHL uses it. However, the workaround there is that a team struggles early, has a bunch of core guys get ‘injured’ midseason, then they all come back in March after the team has been mathematically eliminated. All it does is change when a team decides to sit all its players for tanking purposes.
The lottery isn’t perfect. But I don’t think there is a perfect solution out there as they’re all easily manipulable. So having some randomness that gives teams (and fans) a bit more hope seems like a good enough solution for now, at least.
SkidRowe: Will the league rig the lottery so the Toronto Maple Losers are in the top 2?
I feel like this is an important time to remind you that the lottery is done with ping pong balls. Literal dollar store ping pong balls. They first provided the video of it in 2022 and if you’re not familiar with the mechanics of how it’s done, I recommend you watch it. It’s dry and boring but it does provide a good overview of each step.
It’s 14 equally weighted ping pong balls and a lottery-drawing machine. This isn’t drawing for an envelope that may or may not have been left in a freezer, it’s a 10-cent ball which somehow is harder to rig. The lottery combinations are assigned to teams in advance (and sometimes are even posted online before the actual proceedings) so there’s no room for uh, excess creativity on that front either. Conspiracy theories can be fun but how they do the lotteries is legit.
Toronto has greater than a 17% chance of picking in the top two. After what has happened in recent years, their landing a top-two spot is very much within the realistic range of possibilities.
Cla23: With Hellebuyck’s frustration with the Jets’ season, do you see a trade? If so, where do you think he lands and what do the Jets get in return?
Keep in mind he wants to contend, not rebuild, and NT/NM contracts come into play.
Probably not this summer. His comments about not wanting the team to be too complacent again this summer suggests to me that he still wants to be there; he just wants to see some other changes to the roster. If that doesn’t happen, then yeah, he might want out. The problem is that by the time Hellebuyck will have a chance to assess the state of the roster, most teams will already have their rosters set (or at least wouldn’t be looking to trade for a number one netminder). So even if he looked at their roster in August and said it’s time for a move, there probably isn’t one available until midseason at the earliest or, more likely, next summer.
But, let’s say he does ask out so that I can tackle the second part of the question. Vegas stands out to me as a potential fit. Adin Hill had a rough year while Carter Hart and Akira Schmid have shown good flashes at times but have been inconsistent. Hellebuyck would give them a much more proven starter. I could see both Hill and Schmid in the return, negating the need to bring back Eric Comrie. To make the money work, I think William Karlsson could also be in there, giving Winnipeg at least a short-term center at the same time. Hill and Karlsson both have 10-team no-trade clauses which could scuttle things so let’s get that out of the way.
Given Hill’s struggles and Karlsson’s short-term deal, either Karlsson would need to come with an extension or there would need to be another piece of significance in there. I could see Kevin Cheveldayoff asking for Trevor Connelly but he’s someone Vegas doesn’t want to move. If it landed them a top-end goalie though (and got them out of Hill’s contract), maybe that’d make it worthwhile.
I could also see Florida in there but the potential return is harder to peg down. They don’t have a starter to send the other way which makes it a tough sell right away. With both Aleksander Barkov and Sam Bennett signed long-term, teams will call about Anton Lundell and I imagine Winnipeg would do that, hoping to fill the longstanding 2C issue and then trying to get a goalie from elsewhere. I’m not sure the Panthers would, however. But at any rate, I don’t expect Hellebuyck to be asking out this month.
Offseason Checklist: Chicago Blackhawks
The offseason has arrived for half of the league’s teams that aren’t taking part in the playoffs. Accordingly, it’s now time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months. Next up is a look at Chicago.
It wasn’t supposed to go quite like this again for the Blackhawks in 2025-26. With the team hiring Jeff Blashill as their new head coach last spring, the hope was that he’d be able to raise the floor of the group. Instead, they cratered in the second half of the season to finish 31st overall. GM Kyle Davidson received a vote of confidence in the form of a contract extension but his checklist this offseason looks a lot like last year’s. This time, expectations will be higher that some of these will be achieved.
Determine Consolidation Options
This is going to tie into two of the items later on in the column so let’s get it out of the way first. One thing Davidson has done well in his role is accumulate assets. They’ve gone from a team that had one of the weaker prospect pools in the league to one of the strongest young upcoming cores. For all the losing they’ve had to endure, at least there’s some light at the end of the tunnel. With two extra second-round picks this year and two extra first-round selections next year, they’re going to only further add to that stockpile.
But at some point, they’re heading for a ‘how much is too much’ situation. Let’s look at centers, for example. Connor Bedard is their number one of the present and future. They’re expecting Anton Frondell to be their second. They also have Frank Nazar who spent most of the year down the middle and is locked up on a team-friendly long-term deal. Then there are Oliver Moore, Ryan Greene, and Sacha Boisvert, all quality youngsters in their own right. It’s great to have that depth but would they be better off moving one of those three to fill a weak spot? With the demand for good centers, they’d probably get a significant return.
There are other potential logjams down the road at other positions as well, though those aren’t as pressing on the current roster. But as more of these prospects and future draft picks turn pro, there’s going to be a point when youngster supply vastly outweighs the few roster spots that will be open.
All things considered, this is a great ‘problem’ to have. But while Davidson could play it safe and wait for the logjams to become an issue, he could also be proactive and determine which of those pieces could be expendable. Combining a promising center, a good draft pick, and more would get them in the mix for some of the better players on the trade front this summer. And if they’re going to take that next step forward, they need to find a way to land one of those better players.
Re-Sign Bedard
Last summer, the Blackhawks were eligible to sign Bedard to a long-term extension but didn’t do so. Considering that he was coming off a quieter-than-expected sophomore year, that wasn’t too much of a surprise. Now, Bedard has played out the final season of his entry-level deal and will be a restricted free agent on July 1st.
The decision not to sign early proved to be the right one for the 20-year-old. After seeing his point-per-game output drop in his sophomore year (though his point total increased), he bounced back this season, leading the way in scoring with 30 goals and 45 assists despite missing 13 games due to injury. Over a full 82-game season, that’s an 89-point pace. Given the pedigree he had coming into the league, it’s reasonable to expect that Bedard will eventually hit and surpass that mark. That has to be factored into what this next deal is going to cost; it won’t just be about what he has done over his first three seasons.
To that end, AFP Analytics projects a $13.21MM AAV on an eight-year deal. Chicago can still sign Bedard to an eight-year contract through mid-September before the new CBA fully kicks in. That date will stand as a soft deadline for a lot of negotiations this summer as a result. That would be the richest post-entry-level contract handed out, beating Connor McDavid’s $12.5MM price tag for eight years and would make him the fifth-highest-paid player in the league. But with Bedard having extra leverage if Chicago wants to get the eighth year on there, it wouldn’t be entirely shocking to see a deal come in at that price tag.
While Bedard is eligible for an offer sheet, he’s not necessarily a viable candidate for one. The Blackhawks have more than $40MM in cap room for next season, per PuckPedia, so they’d be able to match any offer that were to come his way. Bedard has already spoken about hoping to get something done before too long so it wouldn’t be shocking to see both sides take a real run at this over the next couple of months before other offseason moves start to be made.
Add A Top-Line Winger
Speaking of those other offseason moves, finding Bedard an impactful winger to ride shotgun alongside him needs to be high on Davidson’s to-do list. While it’s possible that an internal option could one day emerge in that role, that hasn’t happened yet and probably won’t for another couple of years, at least. They likely don’t want to wait that long so looking external is the way to go.
This is a spot that Chicago has tried to fill with placeholders. Tyler Bertuzzi and Teuvo Teravainen were brought in on the opening day of free agency in 2024, hoping to give Bedard a bit of a boost. Both have done reasonably well, though they aren’t top-line players. They tried Andre Burakovsky this year in the hopes that a change of scenery would give him a lift and maybe be an option for Bedard. That one didn’t work out so well.
Unfortunately for the Blackhawks, free agency isn’t likely to yield the solution. Alex Tuch is a legitimate top-line option but he’s really the only one out there. While it’s possible that he could pick Chicago, they shouldn’t be banking on that happening. The next-best scoring wingers are Anthony Mantha (who has bounced around but seems likely to stay in Pittsburgh where things worked out this year) and Alex Ovechkin (who may or may not play next season and would only play in Washington). Patrick Kane isn’t a viable long-term option at 37 but could be a short-term one and there would be a nostalgia element as well. But they should be aiming for a better fit than that.
This is where the consolidation trade could come into play. With so few options in free agency, the trade route is going to be the best way to try to fill that void. With the potential package outlined earlier, that should be good enough to get into the bidding war for some of those wingers and give them a good shot at getting one who could fit in at least a top-six role for the next several seasons.
Add Impactful Veteran Defenseman
In recent years, Chicago has drafted some young defensemen in the first round of the draft. Artyom Levshunov, Sam Rinzel, and Kevin Korchinski have all seen time with the big club already with varying degrees of success. All three figure to be part of the long-term plans at a minimum with a chance to be big parts of their core down the road.
Meanwhile, Alex Vlasic and Wyatt Kaiser are a little further along in their development with Vlasic, in particular, now established as a legitimate shutdown defender. They also have Ethan Del Mastro and Louis Crevier in the fold as younger players who have had a bit of success in the NHL already.
With what they have, there is the makings of a good future defense corps. But it’s especially hard to fast-forward the development of young defenders. It’s even harder to do with a largely inexperienced group. Teams can get away with that when they’re rebuilding but when the time comes to flip the switch, an all-young back end probably isn’t going to get the job done.
That makes getting an impactful veteran a necessity this summer if Davidson wants to move his group forward. Not someone like Connor Murphy (who filled a useful role for many years), someone who can play on the top pairing and in all situations. That will take some pressure off the younger players and give them a chance to develop in slots on the depth chart that are a little better suited to their skillsets at this time.
The problem for the Blackhawks here is, again, there aren’t a lot of options available. In terms of big-minute players, Jacob Trouba, John Carlson, and Rasmus Andersson are pending UFAs. Other than maybe Andersson, none of the players ideally fit on a top pairing. Yes, Darren Raddysh is out there but his track record isn’t as big and until this season, his minutes had been managed relatively carefully. That could mean turning to the trade market again where the type of package mentioned earlier – perhaps augmented by a young roster blueliner to make the package more appealing – might be enough to bring in that type of player.
Davidson has swung some big moves as GM but between this need and the one up front, his biggest ones will be needed over the next couple of months.
Photo courtesy of Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images.
The Kraken Need To Choose A Path This Summer
The Kraken missed the playoffs once again this spring, finishing with the sixth-worst point total in the NHL. They had the luxury of playing in the much weaker Western Conference, but still missed the postseason by 11 points, finishing with a 34-37-11 record and a -37 goal differential.
Seattle has made the playoffs just once in its short five-year history, and none of those appearances have come in the past three seasons. Now, with a team largely set to return next season, aside from a couple of veteran unrestricted free agents, it’s become a moment for general manager Jason Botterill to reflect and decide what direction he wants to take a club that looked lost this past season.
A perfect example of the Kraken’s lack of direction is Mason Marchment’s run with the team. Marchment was dealt to Seattle last June in exchange for a 2026 third-round pick and the Stars’ 2025 fourth-round pick.
It was a decent little move for the Kraken and showed they were looking to make additions. Fast-forward six months (plus a day), and the Kraken sent Marchment to the Blue Jackets for a 2027 second-round pick and the New York Rangers’ 2026 fourth-round pick.
It was a decent turn of events for the Kraken, as they upgraded one pick from a third to a second and got a look at Marchment for a few months. It would have been a tidy piece of work had it ended there.
A few months later, at the trade deadline, Seattle acquired Bobby McMann from the Toronto Maple Leafs in exchange for a second-round pick in 2027 and a 2026 fourth-round pick. The deal, in a vacuum, was good.
McMann has been a steady scorer over the past couple of years and added a lot to the Kraken lineup. However, he is a pending UFA and is set to cash in big time this summer. Seattle likely believed he could help with a playoff push, but with the Kraken’s underwhelming lineup on paper, it was a bit of a fool’s errand and could leave the team holding the bag if he jumped ship in July.
What could be a worse outcome for Seattle is if McMann re-signs long-term. The Kraken already have a number of undesirable long-term deals with veteran players, and McMann is sure to be overpaid when he hits free agency. Seattle has to resist the urge to extend McMann, but it’s hard to say whether they will, given the team’s lack of direction in recent years.
That being said, there is a glimmer of hope for Seattle and a fairly obvious direction the team should take. The Kraken have the seventh-ranked prospect system in the NHL (according to Scott Wheeler of The Athletic) and should be able to rebuild their roster sooner rather than later if they can avoid the urge to sign overpriced veterans, or, in the case of McMann, trade for them when they aren’t playoff-bound.
Ultimately, the Marchment/McMann fiasco cost the Kraken only mid-tier draft picks, which is forgivable given that the Kraken thought they had a playoff push, though it ultimately flopped. But the work in free agency needs to be scrutinized and scaled back if Seattle wants to have any hope of building and keeping a core.
In the past two summers, the team has signed UFAs to deals that were panned at the time and look even worse in hindsight. Ryan Lindgren was signed last summer to a four-year deal worth $4.5MM per season and has not been a good fit with the team.
The Kraken were outplayed whenever Lindgren was on the ice this year, and he was a turnover machine, coughing up the puck more than ever before in his NHL career. He also toned down his hitting dramatically, which didn’t really correct some of the other issues with his game.
If the Lindgren deal was bad, the Chandler Stephenson contract from 2024 is atrocious. On the surface, it looks fine, as he put up 49 points (16 goals and 33 assists) last season in 80 games.
But he has five years left on the deal at $6.25MM per season and gets absolutely crushed at even strength, posting a 40.8 CF%, meaning he is a drag on his teammates from a possession perspective. Sure, he takes a lot of the tough defensive assignments, but there is an argument that he could be among the worst 5-on-5 forwards in the entire NHL, and, in turn, one of the worst contracts in the league as well.
There is also the signing of defenseman Brandon Montour in July 2024. That deal hasn’t been a disaster, and Montour has been fairly productive offensively while continuing to struggle defensively.
Heading into year three of a seven-year, $50MM contract, the back half of his deal could be a huge problem for the Kraken as they enter the competitive window with the young group of players they have drafted and developed. At 32, Montour hasn’t shown an obvious decline, but if his skating begins to deteriorate, there will be major issues with his game both offensively and defensively.
With such a weak UFA market and so many teams with a pile of cap space, this could be the best opportunity for Seattle to commit to a short rebuild and start trimming some of the older, more expensive players, such as Lindgren, Stephenson, and Montour, from their roster, in the hopes of not boxing themselves in when they are ready to contend with the elite young players in their system.
Time will tell whether they have the stomach for the short-term pain, but if they do, they could create the kind of flexibility in two to three years that teams dream of when they try to tear down and recalibrate their rosters.