Brad Treliving Was Never A Good Fit With The Maple Leafs
Last week, news broke that the Maple Leafs had relieved general manager Brad Treliving of his duties, ending an underwhelming tenure with the team that never made sense from the day he was hired in late May 2023. Treliving had previously been with the Flames for nine seasons before he and the team mutually agreed to part ways just weeks before the Maple Leafs hired him.
At the time of his departure from Calgary, PHR’s Josh Erickson noted that Treliving was well respected in NHL front offices, and it was likely he would find a new role quickly, which proved to be a spot-on prediction. However, that likely won’t be the case this time, at least not for an NHL general manager role, as Treliving may need to step away from the game or rebuild his reputation before another team offers him a prominent position.
Treliving’s career in NHL management is similar to that of former Pittsburgh Penguins general manager Ron Hextall, who was let go by the team around the time Treliving left Calgary. Hextall has not held an NHL role since then, and it’s possible Treliving might also need to take some time away from the game or be forced to do so if he can’t find work as an NHL executive.
Some folks might find it unfair to compare Treliving to Hextall, but their two recent runs as GMs show many similarities, as does their history in previous organizations. And as unflattering as it may be, both Hextall and Treliving inherited teams capable of winning the Stanley Cup, with star players at the top, and both oversaw the dismantling of their contention windows.
Folks in Philadelphia would argue that Hextall did the same thing when he was with the Flyers, just as fans of the Flames might feel the same about Treliving’s tenure there. Hextall and Treliving both operated without much semblance of a plan, so many of their moves appeared to be reactions to a changing market, attempts to undo a previous mistake, or attempts to pick up what they could when they realized they had a glaring hole in their roster.
But were Treliving’s moves in Toronto really that bad? The short answer is yes, and the long answer is much more complicated.
It wasn’t all bad for Treliving in Toronto, as the team did win a division title and pushed the eventual Stanley Cup champion Florida Panthers to seven games in the second round last year. However, mistakes made early in Treliving’s tenure eventually compounded, leading to a year where almost nothing went right for him and the Maple Leafs.
In his first summer on the job in 2023, Treliving signed David Kämpf to a regrettable four-year contract worth $9.6MM before free agency. He then entered free agency and made a couple of solid short-term signings in Max Domi and Tyler Bertuzzi.
However, those deals were surrounded by a series of poor bets as Treliving signed Ryan Reaves to a multi-year deal, and agreed to one-year contracts with John Klingberg, Ilya Samsonov, and Martin Jones. Except for the Reaves deal, none of the other moves were particularly bad on their own, but they left the Maple Leafs in a similar spot come playoff time, as they bowed out in the first round to the Bruins. During that season, Treliving also extended Auston Matthews and William Nylander, essentially doubling down on a core four template that had yet to produce a deep playoff run.
Most of Treliving’s early mistakes during his tenure involved trades, where he often traded away depth players for very little and then spent a lot to acquire slightly better players. A clear example is a series of transactions late in the 2024-25 season, when he traded Connor Dewar and Conor Timmins to the Pittsburgh Penguins for a fifth-round pick, and then acquired Scott Laughton, along with a fourth- and sixth-round draft pick, for a conditional 2027 first-rounder and prospect Nikita Grebenkin.
Now, Timmins might not be an NHL defenseman at this point, but it’s hard to argue that Laughton is much of an upgrade on Dewar, especially after the season both players have had. In fact, it’s fair to say that Dewar would be an upgrade on Laughton at this stage of their careers, and he is five years younger than the 31-year-old Laughton. Essentially, those two trades marked a significant loss of talent for Toronto in just a few hours. It made their existing NHL roster worse and removed a key draft asset from their future. These two trades highlight a major issue for Treliving: he lost nearly every trade he made in Toronto, and this was nothing new.
The list of poor trades could fill an entire article on its own, with the most glaring example being the Brandon Carlo trade, which could haunt the Maple Leafs for years depending on how the first-round pick turns out.
But again, many of the moves weren’t necessarily bad; quite a few were unnecessary and revealed that Treliving didn’t have a clear sense of where his team was or what they needed to improve. A good example is the March 2024 trade when Treliving acquired Joel Edmundson from the Washington Capitals in exchange for a 2024 third-round pick and a 2025 fifth-round pick.
This move wasn’t terrible, but Edmundson was only a depth player at that point, and Treliving traded for him when the team desperately needed a top-four defenseman. It felt like a half measure, more like the Maple Leafs’ GM doing something just to say he did it. Critics will note that giving up two mid-round picks isn’t a big deal, but making three such trades a season quickly depletes your draft pool — which is exactly what has happened to Toronto. The prospect pipeline is now empty, and if the Maple Leafs are to have any hope for the future, the next GM will have to make the most of the few draft picks they do have.
Overall, Treliving’s tenure will be remembered as a period when he and the team never quite aligned, leading to a lot of movement but little results. The reality is that Maple Leafs fans and media may claim that Treliving didn’t do enough to push Toronto over the hump and to the next level in the playoffs, but the truth is that Treliving didn’t do enough right, and in fact, he barely got anything right for the Maple Leafs. That’s why they need to conduct another hockey management search at a time when their competitive window is closing quickly.
PHR Mailbag: Flyers, Pacific Division, Devils, Blues, Capitals
Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include a tour around the Pacific Division, potential captains in St. Louis, and more. If your question doesn’t appear, check back in our last two mailbag columns.
Emoney123: Can the Flyers please just lose… they win enough games to be close but just out of the playoffs does nothing but hurt their draft order. They have stumbled into finding a #1 goalie in Vladar… what’s next? Can they sign Vitali Pinchuk and finally just end the rebuild? They have to be able to do better than picking players like Nesbitt R1-#12 and Luchanko R1-#13 the past two years!
Well, since this question was posed, they’ve gone and rattled off a bunch of wins to put them right on the edge of a playoff spot. So, to answer the first thought, no, they’re not going to just lose. And honestly, that’s something I don’t think they’re too worried about. Frankly, with the Blue Jackets and Islanders scuffling, they might get in, even.
They’re a good enough team to not be at the level of the pure rebuilder but don’t seem to have the inclination to tear things down either. That’s why they elected not to sell off parts of their veteran core, either by placing too high an asking price or by simply not entertaining offers for those players. By taking the approach they have, this is going to be the end result. I have to think they’re content with it, too, as otherwise, they’d be modifying it. As for what’s next, it might be more of the same.
I don’t think Pinchuk is the type of piece where they say the rebuild is over either. Yes, he’s a promising prospect. But I don’t think he’s the top center they’re lacking. He might be more of a second or third-line option which is what they already have. That’s not to say that they shouldn’t try to get him – a free NHL piece is a free NHL piece – but he’s not the final piece of the rebuilding puzzle.
There has been an emphasis on high-floor players at the draft in recent years. With that foundation in place now, I’d like to see the Flyers take a swing on skill a bit more in June. While there’s a bigger risk going that way, the potential reward is also higher and the depth they’ve amassed in recent years should give them a chance to be a bit more aggressive in the search for a more impactful piece.
PyramidHeadcrab: Pacific Lightning Round:
- Do the Sharks make the playoffs, and if not, what’s the missing piece?
- How long is Seattle going to keep playing “loves me, loves me not” with Shane Wright?
- Anaheim is having one hell of a year, what’s their X factor?
- Between Cooley and Wolf, Calgary has had a couple of years of stellar goaltending, but they struggle to score. Is there a scenario where they retain at least one good goalie and finally get some reliable scoring?
- How vulnerable is Vegas to the likes of San Jose and Los Angeles pushing them out with their 15 OT loser points(!) barely keeping them in a playoff spot?
- Vancouver’s future is looking dire, do the upcoming draft years have enough to pull them out of the dregs?
- Edmonton had a long string of #1 overall picks for a while there, and not even Nail Yakupov was enough to get them to a Cup. This year, they’re barely hanging on to a playoff spot, and had they been in the East, they wouldn’t even be in the picture. At what point does management look at the situation and decide it’s time to rework the model?
- I honestly don’t know a damn thing about LA this year, they just kind of exist in the background. Tell me something nice about the City of Los Angeles.
1) The Sharks enter play today in a three-way tie for the final Wild Card spot. Few thought they’d be in this situation at this point of the season. That said, I’m still leaning toward them narrowly missing. They have a couple of missing pieces at this point. One is another proven top-six forward to give them more offensive pop. The other is a top-six defenseman (or two). There are prospects who could fill that role down the road but a long-term addition would be great. Failing that, another Dmitry Orlov-esque move could help.
2) If there isn’t a move this summer, they could be playing that for a while. With one year left on his entry-level deal, Wright may have more value now than the 2027 offseason when he’ll be hitting restricted free agency with perhaps less perceived upside if he stays on his current path for another year. In that scenario, Seattle wouldn’t want to sell low, meaning that this could be a storyline for a while.
3) Probably Lukas Dostal. Anaheim is one of the higher-scoring teams this season but goaltending has been an issue, something that’s not entirely uncommon for a young roster. However, Dostal has been a bit too inconsistent this season for someone who is now the undisputed starting goalie. If he can be at his best come the playoffs, they could do some damage. If that’s too obvious a choice, I’ll go with Frank Vatrano. He has all of four goals this season, two years removed from a 37-goal campaign. He has more to give and could be a difference-maker from a secondary scoring perspective.
4) I don’t expect either goalie to go anywhere so the answer is probably yes. Dustin Wolf is entrenched as the starter while Devin Cooley’s track record is still limited which might limit his trade value; he’d probably not fetch the return they’d deem worthy enough to move him. In theory, they could push in some of their trade capital (picks and prospects) to get a top-six scorer without touching their goalies. I don’t think they will this summer though. But Wolf is going to be there for the long haul so yes, they’ll eventually get scoring help while still having at least one good goalie in the fold.
5) With only a five-point lead on a playoff spot, Vegas absolutely is vulnerable, at least in theory. But with how bad this division has been all season, I don’t trust anyone to go on a long enough winning streak to knock the Golden Knights out. If I have to pick between a bunch of underachieving teams for who is to make the playoffs, I’m going to go with the group that at least has a track record of success. The potential ‘new coach bump’ also works in their favor with John Tortorella being the surprising hire last weekend.
6) It’s not as if there’s a smorgasbord of extra picks in the cupboard. They have one extra first-round pick in the next three years, although three extra second-rounders help. If the ping pong balls go their way in the lottery and they hit on some of these second-rounders, the draft could be enough to turn them around in a few years. That said, their recent draft history doesn’t fill me with a ton of confidence.
7) Not anytime soon. When you have two of the top five or so players in the world on your team, you’re probably not willingly going to deviate from that. The rapid escalation of the salary cap should help them in terms of keeping the core while still maintaining some room to add to it. If they can get the goaltending situation figured out (and that’s a big if), they’ll be just fine in the long run.
8) Without the city of Los Angeles, this very site might not exist. Okay, maybe that’s a bit of a stretch, but the internet was created in Los Angeles on the campus of UCLA back in 1969. Leonard Kleinrock, the architect of the first message, recounted that at the 50-year anniversary in a piece for the Los Angeles Times back in 2019 if you want to read more about it. I think that’s something nice.
DevilShark: What 1C or 2C options between the ages of 24 and 28 could be had in the offseason for picks or prospects to round out the Devils’ top six?
When I first saw this question, my initial thought was no one. If teams have an in-prime top-six center, they’re probably not moving them for draft picks and prospects. Those are the pieces teams should be building around, not moving away. But after looking around, there are two that come to mind, neither of whom should come as much of a surprise.
One is Robert Thomas, someone who the Blues had in play at the trade deadline. The thought at the time was that they were seeking at least three top-15 or equivalent pieces between draft picks in that range plus prospects or young players worth that type of return in a trade. Now, does incoming GM Alex Steen take him off the market? I have to think that he and Doug Armstrong were in lockstep on a plan at the deadline so my assumption would be no. I’d imagine that New Jersey’s first-round pick this year and prospect Anton Silayev would be pieces in that move, while they’d likely have to offload at least some salary the other way. Another high-end part would need to be in there as well to meet their asking price.
The other is a bit more of a wild card, that being Vancouver’s Elias Pettersson. In his first full season as the undisputed number one center on the Canucks, things haven’t gone well. He managed just 45 points in 2024-25 and is scoring at nearly an identical clip this season. That’s not a great return on a cap hit of $11.6MM through 2031-32 (and that’s putting it lightly). There’s also a belief that Vancouver doesn’t want to retain any of that money to facilitate a move. That means that there’s a cap-matching piece or two that would have to move but beyond that, draft picks and prospects might be enough to get him. There would be a ton of risk involved but in a lower-pressure role in the lineup and a new environment, the reward could be considerable as well.
vincent k. mcmahon: Do the Blues have a new captain next season or do they wait until 27-28 to name the next captain?
Assuming Thomas and/or Parayko aren’t traded, could one of them be in line to be the next captain or someone outside the box like Buchnevich, etc?
I’m one of those people who think way too much attention gets paid to captaincies and that the role is largely ceremonial. (I know some would very strongly disagree on this one.) But this is certainly a fair question given that the two logical candidates you suggested could very well be on the move this summer. And if that happens, I’m not sure there’s a great fit for next season.
Jake Neighbours could be a viable candidate at some point. He’s already an alternate captain and, at least at first glance, it doesn’t appear as if he’s among the players that the Blues are open to moving. On the other hand, he’s just about to turn 24 which is still on the younger side to be the designated leader of the team. He might be the long-term internal option but if both Thomas and Parayko go this summer, I could see them going captain-less for a year and then assessing if Neighbours is ready for the role.
letsgonats: What fixes do you see for the Capitals? Top-three scoring winger but 20 teams want that too.
The power play demise and the lowly shooting percentage are fatal. What would be your fix?
Who needs to move in that is getable and who needs to be traded to do so?
I’m going to go a little out of order here and start with the shooting percentage. Entering Saturday’s action, the Capitals had a shooting percentage of 11.1%. Considering the league average is 11.0%, I’m not sure how much cause for concern that is. Ideally, you’d like to see them a little more above average but getting back to first overall in that department as they were last season (12.6%, average 10.7%) isn’t going to happen. If we’re quibbling over half a percent or so (even a full percent), that’s not necessarily a huge concern that necessarily needs to be addressed.
Now, the power play is more of a concern. If you want to be a playoff team, having one of the worst marks with the man advantage (putting them around 3% below league average) isn’t ideal. Beyond adding impactful scoring, one fix there might be shifting up the tactics. Some of the better power plays in the league feature a lot of movement, designed to get the penalty killers out of position with the idea of capitalizing on openings. Washington’s power play setup is a bit more static and traditional. Part of that is having Alex Ovechkin in ‘his office’ and that runs counter to the idea of more positionless forwards. But taking that more modern approach might help. Cole Hutson’s addition should help if they go that route next season (the early returns are promising). And a bit more success with the man advantage would probably boost their shooting percentage too.
I’m not so sure that it’s going to be about who moves out as much as who comes in. Washington has over $35MM in cap space for next season, per PuckPedia, with only a handful of roster spots to fill. They don’t necessarily need to move anyone out. Ovechkin needs a new deal if he wants to keep playing and Connor McMichael is heading for a big raise but even with those, there’s lots of room to add without trading anyone away.
The challenge with the other part of your question is that we don’t know who all was in play at the trade deadline that might be getable so it’s hard to come up with specifics. But if there’s a top-six forward or a top-four defender available, I expect GM Chris Patrick to be going after them. It’s going to be a wide net on that front.
Last season felt like an aberration for Washington, where just about everything went right. This year, not much has. But in the grand scheme of things, they’re a bubble team in a division that appears to have a bunch of bubble teams. There’s a good core in place and more flexibility cap-wise than a lot of teams have. This season hasn’t been great but they’re in a spot to make a few moves and make a push to get back to the playoffs next year.
Photo courtesy of Jeff Curry-Imagn Images.
Assessing The Best Free Agent Signings From Summer 2025
As we move into the final month of the season, it has become quite clear which moves from last summer paid off and which ones did not. While long-term effects of summer trades and signings are always part of the picture, it’s interesting to look back and assess the best free-agent signings to see which teams got value for their money and which did not.
Players don’t always succeed immediately with their new teams; sometimes there’s a settling-in period. However, many moves made last summer in free agency have significantly impacted playoff races this year.
For this exercise, we will focus specifically on players who were unrestricted free agents and moved to new teams. This excludes players like Brad Marchand or John Tavares, who re-signed with their respective teams before July 1.
The first player that comes to mind is the Penguins’ top goal scorer, Anthony Mantha, who signed a one-year, $2.5MM contract (plus $2MM in performance bonuses) with the Penguins after missing most of last season with the Flames due to an ACL tear. Many believed that Mantha would have a chance to improve his free-agent stock in Pittsburgh by playing top-six minutes before cashing in during the summer of 2026.
Last summer, the Penguins seemed like a team that would be selling at the trade deadline, so it made sense that they would give Mantha a one-year deal and then trade him for future assets in February or March. However, that outlook couldn’t have been further from the truth, as Mantha has become a key part of a Pittsburgh team that has surprised the NHL this season and remains competitive in the Eastern Conference. With 30 goals and 28 assists in 75 games, Mantha has provided considerable surplus value to the Penguins and is likely to secure a major contract this summer, particularly among one of the thinnest free-agent fields in the salary cap era.
Last year, much of the talk during free agency was that the goaltending market was incredibly thin, and on paper, it certainly looked that way. But that didn’t stop the Buffalo Sabres from exploring the free agency waters, signing Alex Lyon to a two-year, $3MM contract that has proven to be an absolute steal.
Lyon has split duties with his goalie partner, Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen and has appeared in 35 games this season, posting a record of 20-9-4 with a 2.69 GAA and a .909 SV%. While those stats are solid, the standout figure in Lyon’s line is his goals saved above expected, which currently sits at 14.8 (according to MoneyPuck). Lyon won’t be winning any awards this year, but considering how much money teams are spending on ineffective goaltending, Lyon has been a real boon for Buffalo.
Sticking with the goalies, another underrated signing that has paid off is Daniel Vladař of the Philadelphia Flyers. The 28-year-old was mainly a backup before this season but has become the Flyers’ starting goaltender, dressing in 45 games while posting a 24-13-7 record, a 2.50 GAA, and a .904 SV%.
Vladař has been excellent value on a two-year deal with a $3.35MM AAV. Not only is Vladař’s save percentage above average, but his goals saved above expected is up to 9.6, suggesting that his underlying numbers indicate a goaltender who has stolen some games for Philadelphia.
A signing that didn’t happen until the fall was forward Jack Roslovic, who again had to accept an under-market one-year deal. Roslovic signed a one-year, $1.5MM contract with the Oilers on Oct. 8 after his second straight unsuccessful free agency run, where he failed to secure a multi-year deal that suited him.
In Edmonton, the 29-year-old has already achieved his second straight 20-goal season and has been a reliable playmaker for the Oilers. Given his consistent production over the past two seasons, it’s unlikely he’s willing to settle for another one-year deal, especially in a tight free agent market.
Moving to the backend, veteran Brent Burns was a free agent for the first time in his career at age 40. Burns signed a one-year deal with the Avalanche that included a potential $4MM in bonuses, of which he will likely earn $3MM this season.
Burns is no longer an elite offensive defenseman, but he has still scored 10 goals and 19 assists in 73 games this year while playing in every game and averaging almost 19 minutes per game. Burns has benefited from playing on a top team and from a high PDO, but for a veteran right-shot defenseman or a bargain one-year deal, he’s worked out as well as the Avs could have hoped for.
Finally, we return to the Penguins and the skillful work of general manager Kyle Dubas accomplished in the early days of free agency last year. Not only did Dubas sign 30-goal scorer Mantha, but he also secured Justin Brazeau with a two-year deal worth just $3MM, as well as defenseman Parker Wotherspoon on a two-year, $2MM deal. The contracts gave Dubas a top-nine forward in Brazeau and a top-pairing defenseman to play alongside Erik Karlsson, all at a total cost of $2.5MM per season for this year and the next.
Dubas and Penguins Director of Player Personnel Wes Clark did excellent work last summer, finding players with lots of potential who hadn’t been given the chance to succeed. By betting on low-risk, high-upside free agents, Dubas effectively accelerated the Penguins’ retooling plans, which seemed unlikely just a year ago, when the team had missed the playoffs for a third consecutive year.
Earlier this season, there was talk that Penguins captain Sidney Crosby should request a trade because he might not make the playoffs again. However, thanks to Dubas’s bargain shopping, the Penguins now seem to be on track for the playoffs and have plenty of cap space this summer to strengthen their already impressive lineup.
Breaking Down The Future Of The Penguins’ Goaltending
Penguins general manager Kyle Dubas faced a major challenge last year, juggling two inconsistent yet talented goaltenders on his roster while desperately needing stability. He knew he had a promising prospect in Sergey Murashov, but the young player needed time in the minors to develop, which meant Dubas had to rely on temporary solutions.
Those stopgaps have become Stuart Skinner and Arturs Silovs, who have formed a tandem that isn’t spectacular but has been enough to keep the Penguins in the playoff hunt despite some bumps in the road. As both contribute fairly evenly, with a rookie netminder waiting in the wings, this has created an interesting dynamic in the Penguins’ crease, potentially leading to some roster moves this summer.
One year ago, the Penguins had Tristan Jarry and Alex Nedeljkovic as their goaltenders, earning a combined $7.875MM per season. Jarry, in particular, was earning $5.375MM and had three years remaining on his contract.
Dubas started the summer by trading Nedeljkovic to the Sharks for a third-round pick on July 1. Many questioned whether Pittsburgh believed that another goalie prospect, Joel Blomqvist, was ready to be an NHL backup, but Dubas quickly dismissed this idea by acquiring Silovs from the Canucks for a fourth-round pick and a prospect. Since Silovs had to clear waivers in Vancouver, they would have to let him go for free, effectively making it a discount. The trade meant Pittsburgh would begin the season with Jarry as the starter and Silovs as the backup.
Jarry actually started the season quite well for Pittsburgh, posting a 9-3-1 record with a .909 SV% and a 2.66 GAA. This beginning had Penguins fans calling for Dubas to act and trade Jarry to another team, even though his play was decent.
Dubas did just that, trading Jarry and his overpriced contract to the Oilers in exchange for Stuart Skinner, Brett Kulak, and a second-round pick. The move was a surprising development since Pittsburgh retained none of Jarry’s contract, and it involved moving a player who had been on waivers the previous year.
It marked a turning point for Pittsburgh, as they effectively moved on from the volatility of Jarry and Nedeljkovic in favor of what amounts to average goaltending. Now, the Penguins face some decisions heading into the summer, as Skinner is a UFA on July 1 and Silovs is an RFA. It’s almost certain that Pittsburgh will retain Silovs and keep him in the fold, but Skinner is far less of a certainty.
AFP Analytics is projecting a two-year deal for the 27-year-old Skinner worth $3.86MM per season, but given the thin free-agent market and the lack of potential starters, that projection and term seem quite light. At $3.86MM, Pittsburgh would likely be in line to retain him and let Murashov develop in the AHL, but it’s unlikely Skinner would accept that deal now, considering he has plenty of leverage.
That’s where it gets interesting for the Penguins: if they let Skinner walk, they have his potential replacement waiting in the wings. But do they need to wait for Murashov, or is he the guy next year?
If the Penguins decide to make Murashov a full-time NHL player next season, do they trust that Silovs can step up and handle most of the starts? The 25-year-old Silovs has a projected AAV of $2.033MM on a one-year deal, which makes sense since he has shown he can play in the NHL this season, but he hasn’t proven he can be a consistent starter.
Silovs is 16-10-8 this year with an .890 SV% and a 2.98 GAA. Those stats don’t exactly scream consistency, but they are a noticeable improvement over his numbers with Vancouver when he was with the Canucks, and given his age, he can still improve.
Still, can the Penguins rely on him to be a full-time NHL backup behind an inexperienced rookie next season? It’s hard to say for certain, but Silovs’ underlying numbers don’t exactly indicate he’s a sure thing as a starter, and there’s no guarantee Murashov can play 50 games next season — in fact, there’s a good chance he won’t.
So, should Pittsburgh keep Skinner and Silovs and retain Murashov in the AHL? In an ideal world, yes, they’d hold onto both netminders for the next year or two, with Murashov excelling in the AHL, and then the Penguins would promote Murashov full-time.
However, Skinner will likely seek every year and dollar he can get, considering his career has been quite unstable so far, and it might be his best shot at becoming a very wealthy man. This means Pittsburgh has to decide if it’s Murashov or someone else.
It’s not ideal for the Penguins, as they probably don’t have a clear sense if Murashov’s ready to be the guy yet, and they aren’t likely to commit to anyone in free agency, nor could they even if they wanted to give the poor free agent market for goaltenders, so it really comes down to Murashov or Skinner being the guy next season with Silovs as their backup.
The most likely scenario is that Pittsburgh will offer Skinner a short-term deal to bridge the gap until Murashov becomes a full-time NHL player, while allowing both players to share duties in the NHL if Murashov is set to play full-time. Contractually, this would likely be a short-term deal in the $4MM–$5MM a year range.
Would this be enough to persuade Skinner to forgo free agency? Not likely, but if Skinner enters the market and doesn’t receive the salary he’s hoping for, he and the Penguins could revisit negotiations. However, he might also receive a lucrative offer from another NHL team, leading him to leave Pittsburgh, which could put Dubas in a tough spot.
Projecting Jordan Spence’s Contract Negotiations
Senators defenseman Jordan Spence is in his first year with the team and has proven himself to be a worthwhile gamble after Ottawa acquired him last summer from the Kings in exchange for a 2025 third-round pick – 67th overall – and a 2026 sixth-round pick. He has become an absolute steal for the Senators, as Spence has continued his strong possession game and is headed toward a career-high in points.
That’s not bad for a 25-year-old right-shot defenseman who still has plenty of upside. That being said, Spence is a restricted free agent this summer. After counting just $1.5MM against the cap this year, he is headed for a healthy raise.
The talk about Spence when he joined the Senators was that he was sheltered in Los Angeles. This year in Ottawa has been much the same story. Spence has mostly played third-pairing minutes but is averaging a career-high ice time of 18:02 per night, with well over 20 minutes a game in the Senators’ last ten games. That said, Spence still starts 70% of his shifts in the offensive zone, which indicates very favorable usage.
The challenging part for the Senators in the negotiations is that Spence will want to be paid like a top-four defenseman, and all indications suggest he should develop into one fairly quickly. However, if you’re Ottawa, you’d prefer to see him log significant top-four minutes before paying him a salary that reflects that role. That’s the risk for the Senators, but with fellow defenseman Nick Jensen done for the regular season and unlikely to return this summer, Ottawa might get a decent opportunity to assess Spence’s abilities while he plays on the second defensive pairing.
As was previously mentioned, the Senators have been relying on Spence more than usual lately, and he has been up to the challenge with five points in his last five games. But offensive capabilities aren’t really the concern when it comes to Spence, and if you look at the data from last year and this year, Spence has been outstanding.
Last year with Los Angeles, Spence led all Kings defenders in goal share and expected goal share, and he surprisingly led the entire league in expected goals against per 60. This season, it’s been more of the same as Spence leads the Senators in expected goals percentage, and he has posted the Senators’ top three results for defensive pairings with all three of his defense partners this season (Thomas Chabot, Jake Sanderson, and Tyler Kleven).
Some will criticize Spence for being prone to turnovers, say he needs to be sheltered because he’s not strong in his own zone, or point to the healthy scratches at the start of this season. However, since those scratches, Spence has been as reliable as they come, and defensively, he’s excellent at puck retrieval and moving the puck out of the zone. It’s also not Spence’s fault that head coach Travis Green is using his skill set more in the offensive zone.
So, who are some of Spence’s comparables? That’s where it gets tricky, given how unique the situation is with Spence and the ever-increasing NHL salary cap. A potential comparable for Spence could be former teammate Sean Durzi, who is now with the Utah Mammoth. Durzi signed a four-year, $24MM contract extension back in 2024 when he was 25 years old, but that $6MM AAV is likely too high for Spence, even though it’s a two-year-old contract.
Durzi is a better offensive player than Spence, had a longer track record of NHL success at the time he signed, and played top-four minutes consistently. Given all of that, it’s likely that Spence signs for less than Durzi if he opts for a medium-length deal.
A more recent comparable, though also on the higher end compared to Spence, is J.J. Moser of the Tampa Bay Lightning. Moser has just signed an eight-year deal worth $54MM that comes on the heels of a career-best year this season. He is another two-way defenseman who posts excellent underlying numbers and had a 60% expected goals share at the time of signing, ranking third in the entire NHL. The main difference between Spence and Moser is that Moser has a proven track record of playing in the top four, which suggests Spence is unlikely to reach the $6.75MM AAV that Moser received.
If talk of a salary in the $6MM range for a player who has mostly played third pairing throughout his career seems excessive, that’s because it probably is. Nonetheless, as the salary cap rises, so do player salaries, and $6MM is considered high; however, projections for Spence are not far from that figure. AFP Analytics predicts a four-year extension for Spence this summer with an AAV of $4.94MM. In the short term, they’ve projected a one-year deal at $1.7MM, but given that former Senators defenseman Jacob Bernard-Docker recently signed a two-year deal at $1.6MM annually, that estimate might be outdated.
If the Senators sign Spence to a multi-year deal worth $5 million annually, there will surely be sticker shock across the league, but considering Spence is only 25, has significant upside, shows solid two-way metrics, and is just two years away from becoming a UFA, the amount isn’t unreasonable given the current inflated salary cap.
Picking This Year’s Cinderella Run Has Never Been Easier
The Utah Mammoth enter play Saturday with a 37-30-6 record, squarely in position for their first playoff berth via the wild-card spot in the West. They’re 3-5-2 in their last 10 games. In the Eastern Conference, they’d be seven points out of a playoff berth.
If you lump in the Coyotes’ history with the rebirthed Utah franchise, this club hasn’t made the playoffs in a full season since 2012. If you want to go all the way back to their origins as the original Winnipeg Jets, this team has won just four playoff series since entering the NHL in 1979 – once each as the Jets in 1985 and 1987, twice as the Coyotes in their run to the ’12 Western Conference Final.
Yet the Utah Mammoth, in their first season with their new namesake, are a glaringly obvious pick to upset their way through the first two rounds of the playoff bracket and end up as one of the league’s final four teams. Why?
Everyone knows the Pacific Division is bad. Few realize how dire the situation truly is.
There are four regular-season stats that consistently predict postseason haves and have-nots, as Daily Faceoff’s Brock Seguin pointed out earlier this week. Of the last 10 Stanley Cup champions, nine have been in the top 10 in 5-on-5 goals share, eight have been top 12 in 5-on-5 expected goals share, all have been top 12 in 5-on-5 save percentage, and nine have been top 12 in combined power play and penalty kill percentage.
Utah is all but guaranteed to end up in the Pacific bracket as the better wild card. A look at those numbers clearly shows that none of the three teams earning divisional berths stands much of a chance.
The Ducks, on track for their first division title in nine years and first postseason appearance in eight, might be the worst offenders of the bunch. They have a -15 goal differential at 5-on-5 this season for a GF% of 47.6%, 21st in the league. Their expected goals share is right at the 50% waterline, but still ranks 17th. Their goaltending, a boon earlier in the season, has fallen to a 26th-ranked .896 5-on-5 save percentage. Their combined special teams percentage of 96.7% is 24th.
Of course, the Ducks might just be a statistical anomaly. Very little about their profile suggests they should be the 40-win team they already are. They’re not particularly lucky, finishing 0.3% below league average with a 98.9 PDO, and own a -4 goal differential. Who’s to say that can’t continue in the playoffs?
They’ll be matching up against the Mammoth, though. For the second year in a row, Andre Tourigny’s Utah club is much, much better than its record indicates.
Take all the above stats in contrast. They’re eighth in the NHL in 5-on-5 GF% (53.1). Sixth in xGF% (52.7%). 21st in save percentage (.902). 26th in combined special teams (96.4%).
Yes, their struggling power play is a significant reason why their record isn’t any better. In a playoff environment with tighter calls, there are fewer of them to be had, though, and it carries less weight than everything else.
Is Karel Vejmelka a Stanley Cup-caliber starting goaltender? Probably not. It’s clear, though, that Utah’s dominant 5-on-5 play should be more than enough to ensure a wild-card-over-division-champ upset over the Ducks. It should also be enough to get them past a similarly flawed Oilers or Golden Knights roster in the second round, as those clubs are likely ticketed for the #2/#3 matchup.
The only stats in which the Oilers grade out as a potential Cup contender are expected goals share (51.4%) – the least reliable indicator among the four stats outlined – and their combined 107.7% special teams rate. Penalty trouble could sink the Mammoth, sure. But even at the Oilers’ greatest 5-on-5 strength, Utah grades out as a better possession-control team. The Oilers’ horrid 5-on-5 goaltending – 31st in the league at a .887 SV% – could be enough on its own to offset any special teams gains.
If they face Vegas, they’d be coming up against the only team with a worse goaltending situation this year than Edmonton (.885). The Knights’ possession numbers do make them more of a threat, though, with their 5-on-5 GF% ranking 19th (48.5%) and their xGF% (53.1%) all the way up at fifth. That’s miles ahead of Edmonton, and they’ve got the league’s fourth-best special teams efficacy at 106.8%, so they pose a greater challenge. But like Edmonton, Vegas’ lack of a clear-cut #1 option in net – and not for a good reason – will likely be enough to sink them against an above-average finishing squad in Utah.
Of course, the narrative falls apart when pitting the Mammoth against a potential Central Division opponent in the Western Conference Final. Average the league-wide ranks of those four stats among the teams currently in playoff position, and the Avalanche, Stars, and Wild are three of the top four teams.
Still, it’s excessively rare to almost expect a wild-card team to be playing playoff hockey into late May. It would be a great story to see one of the league’s most exciting up-and-coming franchises in Utah, particularly one with such a meager history of success, make a deep run. It would also be one of the least surprising developments of the spring, despite what a traditional wild-card narrative may dictate.
Can The Canucks Move Elias Pettersson?
The Canucks are wrapping up a difficult season, set to finish at the bottom of the standings after trading their captain, Quinn Hughes. This rebuild came just a year after another disappointing season, during which they traded their arguably best forward, J.T. Miller.
It’s been a tumultuous period in Vancouver, and with numerous bad contracts on the books, the outlook doesn’t seem much better. The worst of those deals, and possibly the worst in the NHL, concerns Canucks forward Elias Pettersson, who is ending another disappointing season, his second in a row.
With two subpar seasons on his record and six years remaining on his contract at $11.6MM annually, is it even practical for the Canucks to move on from Pettersson, or are they stuck with the 27-year-old for the foreseeable future?
To provide some context, let’s start by examining Pettersson’s contract, which was signed just over two years ago on March 2, 2024, when Pettersson was a year removed from a 102-point season and was amid an 89-point year. The contract committed Vancouver and Pettersson to an agreement that Vancouver hoped would see him through his prime years and lead to significant success.
However, with roughly $63.8MM still remaining on the deal, Vancouver has not received good value for its investment, and, even more concerning, it is tied to arguably the most unmovable contract in hockey.
The deal is effectively designed to be buyout-proof, thanks to the five separate $5MM bonuses spread across the final five seasons of Pettersson’s contract. These signing bonuses don’t offer much savings for Vancouver if they choose a buyout, meaning Pettersson remains their problem unless they can trade him.
Now, if Pettersson were a $5MM or $6MM center, there would be no problem. He would be a relatively productive middle-six centre with some offensive flair.
But, given that he earns the money he does, Vancouver can’t afford to insulate Pettersson or give him the additional support needed to bring out the best in his game. It’s a problem for both sides, and one without an easy fix.
So, is there a solution? It’s possible, and Elliotte Friedman has previously discussed an Eastern Conference team showing interest in Pettersson, likely the Red Wings.
Besides the clear Swedish connections in Detroit, Pettersson could fit well as a second-line center behind Dylan Larkin, where he would face less pressure and scrutiny. Detroit could afford Pettersson’s salary, but probably wants Vancouver to cover some of the cap hit, something the Canucks are unlikely to be interested in.
If Vancouver isn’t interested in retaining significant money on Pettersson, they essentially have only two options left. The first is to keep Pettersson and hope he works his way out of his slump long enough to be traded. This is similar to what the Penguins did with Tristan Jarry, and it has worked well for them, although it has been disastrous so far for the Oilers, who paid the price to acquire him.
The other option for Vancouver would be to trade Pettersson for another expensive contract or multiple poor-value deals. Vancouver might also look beyond provincial borders to Alberta, where two players – the Flames’ Jonathan Huberdeau and Edmonton’s Darnell Nurse — are currently tied to hefty, hard-to-trade contracts.
Like Pettersson, both Huberdeau and Nurse have buyout- and trade-proof contracts, thanks to the high price tags attached to them for the foreseeable future. Huberdeau has five years remaining on his deal at $10.5MM annually, while Nurse has four years left at a $9.25MM AAV.
Considering their performance, these players could be candidates to be traded for Pettersson. However, another major obstacle to any trade involving these players is the trade protection embedded in their contracts.
Nurse has a full no-movement clause through the 2026-27 season, which then becomes a 10-team no-trade list for the last three years of his deal (per PuckPedia). While Huberdeau carries a full no-move clause for another three years after this one, it then shifts to a 12-team no-trade list for the final two seasons of his contract.
Although both Nurse and Huberdeau could benefit from a fresh start, the Canucks are about to rebuild, and veteran players won’t be lining up to join Vancouver at the bottom of the league standings.
All of that doesn’t put Vancouver in a strong position, and unless a team takes a big risk on Pettersson, Vancouver is likely stuck with him and his $11.6MM contract. Even though it seems like a deal that’s hard to move, it’s not unheard of for large cap hits to be traded.
Dion Phaneuf carried a $7MM cap hit on a long-term deal a decade ago while he was mainly a third-pairing defenceman, but that didn’t stop Ottawa from acquiring him and his full cap hit, which they eventually traded to the Kings in 2018 while retaining 25% of the cap hit.
The same applies to Oliver Ekman-Larsson, who was acquired by the Vancouver Canucks along with Conor Garland in exchange for a ninth overall pick, a 2022 second-round pick, and forwards Antoine Roussel, Loui Eriksson, and Jay Beagle. The deal mainly helped Vancouver offload several spare parts with high cap hits, but make no mistake, Ekman-Larsson was a failure in Vancouver, which is why he was bought out in June 2023.
Trades involving Phaneuf and Larsson show that trades for bloated contracts are possible. However, there are many cases like Marc-Edouard Vlasic, who could never be dealt because his play declined so much that no matter what assets were included, no team wanted him. Pettersson isn’t quite there yet, but another season or two like this past one and he probably won’t be moved without 50% retention of his cap hit.
Photo by Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images
Projecting Patrik Laine’s Future After This Season
Canadiens forward Patrik Laine is headed for free agency this summer. Despite a limited free agent market, he isn’t expected to attract much interest after another season marred by injuries.
Laine has only played five games this season, with just one assist, and until the trade deadline, he was a frequent topic of trade rumors as Montreal hoped to clear salary. Reports indicate he was mentioned in discussions with both the Maple Leafs and Flyers.
Laine hasn’t been a good fit with the Canadiens, and as summer approaches, it’s almost certain he will be wearing a different NHL jersey next season, likely at a cap hit significantly lower than his current $8.7MM salary. The question remains whether NHL teams will be interested and whether a good fit exists for the 2016 second overall pick.
Despite the injuries and inconsistencies that have challenged Laine’s career over the past half-decade, his shot remains among the best in the NHL, especially from long range, where he continues to be an elite scorer even if he hasn’t displayed his full skill set this year. Last season, Laine scored 20 goals in just 52 games, and he still likely projects as a 20- to 25-goal scorer despite limitations in nearly every other aspect of his game.
But that is the core issue with Laine: he is limited in what he can do, and his analytics away from the puck are appalling. This will cause many NHL teams to hesitate before considering him a viable free-agent target.
Laine has long been a liability in puck possession, and it wasn’t any better last season, when he was mainly used in an offensive role but still hindered his teammates’ possession. Given his health concerns, especially regarding his skating and agility, it’s unlikely these metrics will improve. This means any team that acquires Laine will need to isolate and shelter him, which is acceptable if he is earning close to the league minimum on a one-year deal.
When considering comparables, there aren’t many. In fact, this year, AFP Analytics can’t even project Laine’s potential contract for the 2026-27 season because there isn’t enough information available on Laine, which makes sense given that he’s only played five games this season.
A potential comparison who is by no means an exact match would be Anthony Mantha of the Penguins, who is currently earning $2.5MM on a one-year “prove it” deal he signed last summer. Mantha had a consistent track record of scoring 20 goals before last season, but he suffered a season-ending ACL injury and missed most of the year with the Calgary Flames. After posting just seven points in 13 games with Calgary, the 31-year-old bet on himself last summer, and it appears to be paying off as he looks set to be one of the top UFAs available this summer, which should give him a chance at a long-term contract in the coming years.
Although Mantha and Laine are very different players, there aren’t many better comparisons, but Jeff Skinner provides another example of what free agency could mean for Laine. Skinner has spent the last two seasons signing one-year, $3MM contracts as a UFA. However, like Mantha, he is over 30, at 33. Similar to Laine, Skinner is a fairly one-dimensional offensive player who can score goals but does little else, especially away from the puck, where he’s not exactly a Selke Trophy candidate.
Looking at Mantha and Skinner as reasonable comparables, since both are wingers, have notable flaws in their games, and can score, what can Laine expect in free agency? Mantha received a one-year, $2.5MM deal last summer, while Skinner signed a one-year, $3MM contract with San Jose.
Laine has several factors that position him above Mantha and Skinner. Laine was the second overall pick; he’s three years younger than Mantha was during his recent free agency and five years younger than Skinner. There’s a solid argument that Laine is a purer goal scorer than both Mantha and Skinner, which is mainly shown by his NHL career goal numbers. All these points suggest that Laine deserves a larger payday than both Mantha and Skinner.
But Mantha is arguably a more complete player than Laine, and Skinner has a longer track record of scoring goals than Laine. Those factors will work against Laine, but overall, he probably deserves a more substantial one-year contract than Mantha or Skinner received last summer. That said, this is a very thin free-agent crop, and teams will be desperate on July 1st to add scoring, which could make Laine appealing to more than one team despite the warts on his resume.
Where Laine ends up remains uncertain, but some contending teams facing the salary cap hurdle would likely be interested in acquiring a motivated, scoring forward at a low cost. Colorado and Dallas come to mind as possible destinations, as do the Penguins, who may lose Mantha to free agency unless they can negotiate a deal. In any case, Laine desperately needs to find a suitable fit if he wants to secure another lucrative NHL contract.
PHR Mailbag: Kings, Rangers, Raddysh, Lightning, Sabres, Red Wings, CBA
Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include forecasting the next contract for the top-scoring pending UFA, Buffalo’s turnaround, and more. If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s column while we have one more mailbag to come from our latest call for questions.
bigalval: Does Ken Holland have any clue what he’s doing? Rob Blake was bad and Holland’s moves have been puzzling at best.
Holland has been around long enough that I’m confident in saying he knows what he’s doing; there is a plan in place. His moves over the offseason clearly signaled that he was leaning into the team playing a slower, more deliberate game and that after being unable to land a big fish, he leaned into building up their depth. You can quibble with some of the moves made (and I’d say you’re probably right to do so) but I understand the method to the madness.
Then there’s the Artemi Panarin move. If you’re thinking that moving a first-round prospect in Liam Greentree to get him with a two-year extension doesn’t make sense for a bubble team, I get that. The rebuild is probably coming at some point; it can only be stalled so long. And with Los Angeles struggling mightily offensively, this might not have been the right time to take a big swing. Clearly, Holland believes that this group could do some damage in a Pacific Division that’s up for grabs; they just have to get there first.
That belief I suspect also shaped the decision to make a coaching change, even if it came a lot later than most would have expected. The results have been middling since D.J. Smith took over (not unlike how they were before) but there’s still time to win a few and really lock down a playoff spot. I like the approach to go with an interim coach in case they want to pivot to a different option over the summer and perhaps change their system a little more drastically.
So far, things have largely looked like more of the same under Holland despite a much higher volume of moves. But there’s a plan in place; I’m just not sure it’s necessarily the right one as again, that rebuild is bound to happen at some point and it wouldn’t shock me if it’s sooner than later.
lgr34561: Do you think this recent hot streak with Gabriel Perreault and more specifically Alexis Lafreniere is legit and something Rangers fans should be seriously optimistic about or just assume it’s Lafreniere just going on a short streak then back to his old ways?
Generally speaking, I try not to read too much into how players perform down the stretch when they’re on teams playing for nothing but pride. However, there’s still room for some optimism with how those two have performed as of late.
This month, Perreault has four goals and eight assists in 10 games. Perhaps more notably, he’s averaging over 18 minutes per game in March. Those are legitimate top-level reps that are going to help him beyond this season. The Rangers drafted Perreault with the hope that he can be an impactful top-six forward for them. I’m not sure he’s going to be fully ready to be that next season (a lot will depend on offseason moves as well) but this stretch suggests that he’s trending in the right direction to have that role.
As for Lafreniere, he has done this before, where he has a good stretch. However, he hasn’t followed that up by continuing it for an extended amount of time. He’s not going to have that chance here either with the season almost over. Don’t get me wrong, 14 points in 10 March games is nice to see but I’m not ready to think that this is the beginning of the long-awaited breakout. I think this But if GM Chris Drury is pondering trading the 24-year-old this summer, this performance certainly can’t hurt from a value standpoint.
FeeltheThunder: I already asked about Nikita Kucherov’s extension. Now, I must ask about Darren Raddysh. How do you think Tampa will approach the intriguing Raddysh conundrum? GM Julien BriseBois had recently stated he wants to keep Raddysh wearing a Bolts’ jersey after this season and Tampa will have an admirable amount of cap space this offseason ranging around $15 to $16 million. I feel Tampa will keep him, it’s just what is the final price and term going to be?
Also, Tampa didn’t get an extra RD at the trade deadline, so do you think they’ll search for an additional RD in the offseason of FA even with Raddysh, Cernak, and Crozier and if so, who might those prospects potentially be?
This might be the most fascinating contract of the offseason. Heading into the season, Raddysh looked like he was heading for a nice raise after back-to-back 30-plus-point years. Making $975K this season, if he landed in the $3.5MM range or so with his limited usage, that would have made sense for both sides.
But then this season happened. Raddysh doesn’t just lead all pending UFA defensemen in points but rather pending unrestricted free agents, period. He’s up to 60 points in as many games. And it’s not as if he’s still getting limited minutes either; he’s averaging close to 23 minutes per night and even seeing light penalty killing playing time. Being a right-shot defender with this type of output in a market where cap space exceeds the quality of players available and you have the perfect storm for a huge offer.
Given where things are, I could see a team, perhaps begrudgingly, offering $7.5MM per season for Raddysh, rationalizing that even if he winds up in the 45-50-point range next year, it could still age well. I don’t think Tampa Bay would be willing to go quite that high, even with their cap space and right-side situation. GM Julien BriseBois isn’t known for paying top dollar. I could see a long-term pact (six years or so) around $6MM or so being where the two sides ultimately settle where he leaves a bit on the table to stay but still gets life-changing money.
Assuming that they get Raddysh re-signed, I think they’ll be content enough with him and Cernak as their top two right-shot rearguards. I could see them looking for a third-pairing player that keeps Maxwell Crozier in a reserve role, however. Nick Jensen coming off an injury-riddled season is eligible for a one-year, bonus-laden deal. That feels like a good fit, giving him a soft landing spot to try to rebuild some value while possibly giving Tampa Bay some value for the role. A reunion with Luke Schenn could be a viable option as well.
FeeltheThunder: I want to add one more question here. I think Tampa should look for a new backup goaltender this offseason as Jonas Johansson is just way too hot and cold. I think if they bring in competition this offseason like a UFA in Matt Murray, for example, would be an improvement. Also, Tampa may need an AHL goaltender for Syracuse if they don’t bring back Brandon Halverson (which would be surprising) but they could have Johansson for that if so. What do you think of the whole situation?
For years now, the Lightning have been in a spot where they haven’t had a choice but to go with low-cost options. Some of that has been self-inflicted with their other moves but now, as you noted with your first question, they have a lot more cap flexibility this summer. I think they would benefit from upgrading on Johansson, it just comes down to how much more money they want to spend on the position. Murray is one who isn’t exactly the most consistent either but if they just wanted to bring in someone for competition (and waive the one who doesn’t make it), I could see that happening. And if so, that might push Halverson out.
Otherwise, I’d hope they’d aim a little higher and try to get someone who can maybe cover 25-30 games a season. With the increased minimum salary next season, they’d clear all but $25K of Johansson’s salary off the books with an AHL assignment so I think it’d be worth their while to explore it.
As for the AHL side, it feels like about a third of the veteran goalies bounce around from year to year. If Halverson leaves, there will be plenty of other AHL veterans to choose from so I wouldn’t worry too much about that situation. It actually wouldn’t surprise me if they look to an international goalie in free agency, a younger one that could see some time with the Crunch while trying to see if they can develop a future backup for a couple of years from now.
Jake Guentzel Is One Of The Best UFA Signings Of This Era
Building a team through free agency is rarely a recipe for success in the NHL. Just ask the Predators, who are only two years removed from “winning” the 2024 UFA sweepstakes but have yet to see any on-ice success from their spending spree (Steven Stamkos, Brady Skjei, and Jonathan Marchessault).
However, some teams do find success in the free agent market by acquiring players on the fringes. Last summer is a good example, as the Penguins struck gold by signing Justin Brazeau and Parker Wotherspoon to two-year contracts that have given them some of the best value in the NHL.
All of that being said, it’s rare to see a high-end UFA sign for big money and provide substantial extra value on their long-term deal, which is why the Lightning’s Jake Guentzel stands out as one of the best free agent signings of the last 10-15 years.
When Guentzel signed his seven-year, $63MM contract, he was brought to Tampa Bay to step into the lineup for former captain and long-time star Stamkos. Those were big shoes to fill, as Stamkos was a first-overall pick who had captained Tampa Bay to multiple Cups and was beloved by the city and the organization.
But the Lightning saw an opportunity to get younger and refresh the top of their lineup. It’s paid off in spades. However, it didn’t come without significant risk.
No one knew whether Guentzel would thrive outside of Pittsburgh after spending the first eight seasons of his NHL career with the Penguins, skating alongside Sidney Crosby on the top line. Many believed that Guentzel might have been a product of playing with Crosby and not a player who could excel elsewhere.
Since being traded by Pittsburgh in March 2024, all Guentzel has done is improve his impressive offensive numbers. In 503 games with the Penguins, Guentzel scored 219 goals and 247 assists, averaging 0.93 points per game. However, since the trade, Guentzel has tallied 78 goals and 97 assists in 163 games, averaging 1.07 points per game. While the increase is slight, it is still surprising — and quite welcome for the Lightning.
This season, the 31-year-old has 29 goals and 41 assists in 66 games and is on track for his third 80-point season. If he achieves that, it will mark the seventh time in eight seasons that he has surpassed a point-per-game, a remarkable streak of consistency for a player whose on-ice ability is often questioned.
Guentzel isn’t the flashiest player, nor is he the biggest or fastest. But he has a high hockey IQ and a rare ability to anticipate plays. That’s what made him the best player Crosby has ever played with long-term (an argument can be made that Marián Hossa was the best winger Crosby ever had), and it’s why he’s fit in with Tampa Bay so seamlessly.
There have been other UFA success stories over the past twenty years. Artemi Panarin had an outstanding run with the New York Rangers; the previously mentioned Hossa in Chicago won three Stanley Cups and played a key role in all of them, while Joe Pavelski left San Jose for the Dallas Stars and was a major contributor to their success from 2019 to 2024.
An argument could be made that John Tavares‘ signing with the Toronto Maple Leafs in 2018 was also a success, and in a vacuum, that is probably true. Tavares signed a seven-year, $77MM contract on the first day of free agency in 2018, and the deal itself worked out well for both Tavares and the Maple Leafs, as he remained an important contributor throughout the term and is currently playing on a bargain extension he signed last year. While Matthews was the captain of Toronto and a key piece of one of their better eras of regular-season success, the Maple Leafs had almost no playoff success, and the acquisition of Tavares led to one of the worst trades in recent memory.
Without Tavares signing, the Maple Leafs likely wouldn’t have traded Nazem Kadri to the Colorado Avalanche, a move that eventually helped Colorado win a Stanley Cup and left the Maple Leafs with a significant gap down the middle of the ice. In theory, the trade made sense; Kadri was destined to be a third-line center, and Toronto believed it was best to swap him for defensive help in Tyson Barrie and another center in Alexander Kerfoot. The move didn’t work out and ultimately contributed to Toronto’s decline.
And that parallel from Toronto highlights how impressive Guentzel’s run in Tampa Bay really is. He was brought in to replace arguably the best player in franchise history, and all Guentzel has done is put up better numbers than ever before in his career. There are still five years remaining on his contract, so it’s not guaranteed that Guentzel’s deal won’t become a problem later on, but for now, it’s one of the best UFA signings in recent memory.