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Calgary Flames, Matthew Tkachuk Taking Time To Get Deal Done

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The Calgary Flames have many offseason tasks they must deal with this summer, but the No. 1 priority of the team is locking up their top restricted free agent, Matthew Tkachuk. However, with a number of big-name restricted free agents cashing in on mega contracts in the last couple of years, the negotiations are expected to take a while. In fact, The Fourth Period reports that the two sides are in no rush to get a deal done quickly.

Both Calgary and Tkachuk have already had initial discussions, but negotiations aren’t expected to pick up again until later this month, most likely after the NHL Entry Draft. Much of the initial discussions likely dealt with the type of deal that Tkachuk is looking for as he could either sign a short-term bridge deal or a long-term deal. If the team isn’t ready to shell out an expensive long-term deal, they could offer a three-year bridge deal in hopes of seeing whether Tkachuk is worthy of such a deal that would take him to his final year of restricted free agency.

Several restricted free agents have cashed in recently, especially in Toronto as Auston Matthews signed a five-year, $58.2MM contract ($11.63MM AAV) in February, while William Nylander signed a six-year, $45MM deal ($6.96MM AAV) in December after holding out. There are quite a few key restricted free agents this offseason and Tkachuk might want to wait some of them out to see what the market sets at, including Toronto’s Mitch Marner, Carolina’s Sebastian Aho, San Jose’s Timo Meier and Winnipeg’s Patrik Laine and Kyle Connor amongst others.

Tkachuk is coming off a breakout season in the final year of his entry-level deal as he potted 35 goals and picked up 77 points this season, something they were hoping for after they drafted him sixth overall in 2016. A physical, menace-type player, Tkachuk is critical to the team’s long-term plans, but with plenty of cap concerns approaching, the team could opt to give him a little less money if he accepts a shorter-term deal. However, a long-term deal might be the preferred outcome in case Tkachuk continues to take steps forward in his development, which is quite possible considering he’s still only 21 years old.

The Flames are projected to have more than $14MM in cap space this offseason, giving them the room to lock up Tkachuk to a long-term deal, although the team still has other key restricted free agents in Sam Bennett, Andrew Mangiapane and goaltender David Rittich to sign. The team also must decide on whether to bring back unrestricted free agent Mike Smith in net to pair with Rittich. If not, the team will have to find a goaltender on the free agent market to replace him. That could take up a significant amount of cap room, although there have been rumors the team could move one of their veteran defenseman, either T.J. Brodie or Travis Hamonic, to open up some more cap space and free up a defensive roster spot for some of their upcoming defensive prospects. General manager Brad Treliving might also attempt to trade forward James Neal and his bloated $5.75MM AAV contract, although finding a taker might prove to be a challenge considering he has four more years remaining on his contract.

Snapshots: Blackhawks, Matthews, Bean

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The Chicago Blackhawks have announced a three-year extension with their ECHL affiliate the Indy Fuel. The agreement will take them through the 2021-22 season and means the Fuel will remain affiliated with the only NHL team they’ve ever known. The Indianapolis franchise came into the ECHL in 2014, though haven’t yet found a ton of success. In their five-year run, the Fuel have only qualified for the Kelly Cup playoffs once and were swept out of the first round that season by the Toledo Walleye.

More and more around the league the ECHL is used as a development team crucial in the early years of raw or unexpected prospects. Notably it is a place where young goaltenders can sharpen their skills while playing a lot, something that Blackhawks netminder Collin Delia did as recently as 2017-18. Delia played ten games for the Fuel during that season and now looks like a potential starting option for the Blackhawks going forward. Justin Holl of the Toronto Maple Leafs is also an alumni of the Indy program, having started his professional career there by playing 66 games for the team in 2014-15.

  • Speaking of the Maple Leafs, the team announced today that Auston Matthews has undergone a procedure to remove hardware from a 2014 surgery. Matthews broke his femur while playing in the USNTDP several years ago, and according to Pierre LeBrun of TSN the screws leftover from that procedure may have been causing back pain for the young star. This explains why Matthews will not be playing in the upcoming IIHF World Championship, though it is not expected to affect his offseason training schedule.
  • The Carolina Hurricanes have recalled Jake Bean from the AHL once again, though with the Charlotte Checkers starting their second round playoff series tomorrow evening he may not be on the roster very long. Bean has been up and down in the playoffs to give the Hurricanes some additional defensive depth as they deal with injuries to Calvin de Haan and Trevor van Riemsdyk, but he has yet to suit up. The 20-year old was named to the AHL All-Rookie team this season and made his NHL debut by suiting up twice for the Hurricanes earlier in the year.

Morning Notes: Datsyuk, Worlds, Fix-Wolansky

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Pavel Datsyuk’s contract has come to an end with SKA St. Petersburg in the KHL, but he’s not yet a completely unrestricted free agent. Datsyuk’s NHL rights still belong to the Arizona Coyotes until July 1st after they took on his contract in a cap relief deal. Still, Ted Kulfan of the Detroit News reports that the veteran forward is on his way to Michigan soon to discuss options with his agent Dan Milstein of Gold Star Hockey, and that he would only return to the NHL for the Detroit Red Wings.

That by no means guarantees a return for Datsyuk, who according to Kulfan would also consider playing for his hometown team in Russia. That would be Avtomobilist Yekaterinburg, who actually had an outstanding 2018-19 season but were upset in the second round of the Gagarin Cup playoffs. That option still does seem the most likely, given that Datsyuk will turn 41 in July.

  • Auston Matthews won’t be heading to the IIHF World Championship later this month, but the next potential American-born first-overall pick will be there instead. John Shannon of Sportsnet reports that the Toronto Maple Leafs star would not take part in the tournament, but Jack Hughes will join his brother on the USA squad. Hughes has just finished smashing nearly every record possible over the last year in the USNDTP and U-18 tournament, and will now try to show off his skills for the New Jersey Devils who hold the top pick in June’s draft.
  • Team Canada has also added another player to their roster, bringing in Pittsburgh Penguins forward Jared McCann. The Canadians have a few spots left for late additions, but will rely on the likes of John Tavares, Sean Couturier and Mark Stone to form the veteran core up front.
  • The Cleveland Monsters have added Trey Fix-Wolansky on an amateur tryout for the rest of the season, after his Edmonton Oil Kings were eliminated from WHL playoff contention. Fix-Wolansky was a seventh-round pick of the Columbus Blue Jackets in 2018 but put up 102 points in 65 games as the captain of the Oil Kings this season, and has already signed his entry-level contract that will kick in next season.

Prospect Notes: Kuokkanen, Hughes, Caufield, Malone

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The Carolina Hurricanes are down a depth option with the playoffs approaching, but the bigger hit will be to the Charlotte Checkers, the top team in the AHL. Checkers head coach Mike Vellucci has revealed that forward Janne Kuokkanen is done for the year. The top prospect has missed more than a month now with an upper-body injury, but both the ’Canes and Checkers hoped he would be able to return. Instead, Kuokkanen is scheduled for surgery in two weeks that will end his season. The 2016 second-round pick is in his second pro season and had been on pace to put up major numbers in the minors. Prior to his injury, Kuokkanen had 38 points in 48 games, close to his 60-game total from last year, and remains second on the team in per-game production. Kuokkanen has also played eleven games with Carolina, including seven this season, and likely would have been a top injury replacement consideration. The talented forward will instead have to focus on his recovery and will likely be given a chance to break camp with the Hurricanes next season.

  • On one goal last night, history was made for two players in the U.S. National Team Development Program writes NHL.com’s Mike Morreale. Facing the USHL’s Green Bay Gamblers, presumptive 2019 first-round picks Jack Hughes and Cole Caufield connected for a goal late in the third period of a lopsided blowout; it was yet another of countless the duo have combined for in their time with the program. The assist to Hughes, the favorite to go No. 1 overall in June, was his 190th point in his two-year stint with the program, passing Clayton Keller for the most all-time. It was his fifth assist of the game and his 130th as a member of the USNTDP. Hughes now tops a list that includes Keller, Phil Kessel, Patrick Kane, Jeremy Bracco, and Auston Matthews next in line. The goal for Caufield was his sixth of the game and somehow more impressively his 105th for the USNTDP, the new all-time high. Caufield takes the overall title away from Kessel and is just four goals away from passing Matthews for most goals in a single season. Although just 5’7″, Caufield is an elite sniper whose game has been complemented nicely by Hughes’ next-level play-making abilities. Questions about his size and ability to produce when not surrounded by top talent persist, but the University of Wisconsin-bound forward is still expected to be picked in the first half of the first round this spring. Hughes and Caufield are now names for the USNTDP record books, but soon they’ll be topping charts as NHL prospects and even NHL scorers sooner rather than later.
  • A recent University of Wisconsin standout had a nice night of his own. Seamus Malone, who wrapped up an impressive four-year career with the Badgers last week, signed a tryout deal with the AHL’s Utica Comets. In his pro debut, Malone also picked up his first career goal. An undersized, but capable center, Malone was a model of consistency at Wisconsin, recording 23+ points in 35+ games in each of his four seasons. However, his senior campaign also showed that he has developed into a more well-rounded two-way contributor. Malone was a player that some were surprised to see go undrafted during his years of eligibility, but now the 22-year-old may end up in the NHL after all. He is bound for far more than just a tryout deal and will likely land an AHL contract, if not an entry-level contract for next season, especially if he keeps scoring in his current stint with the Comets.

Five Key Stories: 2/11/19 – 2/17/19

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With the trade deadline now just over a week away, activity has started to pick up around the NHL.  Rumors of major trades continue, but so far just a few deals have been completed.

Lafreniere To Stay In CHL: Potential 2020 first-overall pick Alexis Lafreniere set the record straight after rumors were circulating that the 17-year-old may opt to sign a contract overseas and follow the footsteps of Auston Matthews who played his draft year in the Swiss NLA. Lafreniere’s agent, Momentum Hockey Agency, released a statement making it clear that while the young talent did look into playing overseas, he and his family decided to stay in the CHL with Rimouski Oceanic of the QMJHL where he’s played the last two years, having totaled 74 goals and 172 points in 110 games. At 6-foot-1, he already has the size and proven ability to play in a professional league, but he will stay put for one more year.

Pastrnak, Maatta Injured: The Boston Bruins and Pittsburgh Penguins each took a hit to their team when each team lost a significant player to injury. The Boston Bruins lost David Pastrnak for a minimum of two weeks after he underwent thumb surgery on Feb. 12 after he fell at a team function. The Bruins, who are fighting with the Toronto Maple Leafs for the second spot in the Atlantic Division won’t be helped even if its for a few weeks without Pastrnak, who is the team’s leading scorer with 31 goals as well as 66 points, second on the team. The Penguins also took a hit on their blueline when they placed Olli Maatta on injured reserve with an upper-body injury that would sideline him indefinitely. The team was getting back Justin Schultz from injury at the time, but the team was looking forward to getting back a fully healthy defense, which now they won’t have for some time. To make matters worse, the team had recently dealt away Jamie Oleksiak to make room for Schultz, leaving the team with a lack of depth all of the sudden.

Wild Owner Approves Selling: Just hours after Minnesota Wild head coach Bruce Boudreau guaranteed that the Wild would make the playoffs, Wild owner Craig Leipold announced that he has given general manager Paul Fenton the green light to sell off some of the team’s players in advance of the upcoming trade deadline. With the team dropping four straight and having a 2-5-3 record in their last 10 games, it might be time for Fenton to make his mark on this team after being hired this summer to fix the team’s inability to advance deep into the playoffs. Among the numerous players who could be shipped off include pending unrestricted free agent Eric Staal as well as Charlie Coyle, who still has one more year on his deal. There are also a number of bottom six players who could be moved as well, including Eric Fehr, Matt Hendricks, Brad Hunt, Matt Bartkowski and Anthony Bitetto.

Philadelphia’s Hart Gets A Mentor: The Philadelphia Flyers finally consummated a rumored trade in which it acquired Edmonton Oilers goaltender Cam Talbot for Anthony Stolarz. While Edmonton freed themselves some much needed cap room as Talbot was making $4.17MM, the Flyers got themselves what they hope will be a long-term veteran who can mentor their prized rookie Carter Hart for the next few years. Talbot, who was already familiar with Hart before, waived his no-movement clause to come to Philadelphia and made it clear that he was open to signing a new contract before July 1 to remain with the team.

Ottawa Intends To Trade Duchene: The Ottawa Senators have stopped in their attempts to sign Matt Duchene to an extension and have indicated to all teams that they intend to trade the 26-year-old center. According to reports, the Senators have shifted their focus of signing Duchene to making a full effort to locking up Mark Stone to an extension. Stone may have a day or two to make up his mind on whether he is willing to sign an extension or he too, will be made available to the league with the intention of selling them off at the trade deadline. Already there has been rumors that the Nashville Predators, the Columbus Blue Jackets and the New York Islanders have expressed serious interest in acquiring the center with more suitors likely to join in before the upcoming trade deadline on Feb. 25.

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Auston Matthews Signs Five-Year Extension

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The Toronto Maple Leafs have signed their young superstar to a huge contract, inking a five-year extension with Auston Matthews. The deal will carry an annual average value of $11.634MM, and be paid almost entirely in signing bonuses. Bob McKenzie of TSN provides the yearly breakdown:

  • 2019-20: $700K salary, $15.2MM signing bonus
  • 2020-21: $700K salary, $15.2MM signing bonus
  • 2021-22: $750K salary, $9.7MM signing bonus
  • 2022-23: $750K salary, $7.2MM signing bonus
  • 2023-24: $750K salary, $7.2MM signing bonus

A deal with a cap hit of this magnitude is almost unprecedented for a player coming out of his entry-level contract, and Matthews is now in line to start next season with the second-highest hit in the entire league (pending any other contracts/extensions). Only Connor McDavid’s $12.5MM will eclipse the Toronto center, and his eight-year deal bought out four years of unrestricted free agency. Matthews is giving up just a single year of UFA status with this contract, meaning he is now scheduled to hit the open market as a 26-year old in the prime of his career. The Maple Leafs will try to avoid that with another huge extension, but there is little doubt that Matthews has set himself up to be one of the highest earners in NHL history.

There’s good reason for this huge contract. Matthews came into the league after being selected first overall in 2016 and immediately established himself as one of the best goal scorers in the NHL. With four goals in his rookie debut, the 6’3″ center put the league on notice and carried it all the way to a 40-goal, Calder Trophy-winning season in 2016-17. His 32 even-strength tallies led the league that year, and he received votes for the Lady Byng, Selke and Hart trophies. Last year was a bit different, as the Maple Leafs forward dealt with injuries that limited him to just 62 games. Still, he racked up 34 goals and 63 points while still only seeing 18 minutes of ice time a night.

This year has also seen him miss some time with a shoulder injury, but Matthews is playing at an even higher level than the past. With 46 points in 38 games he has a chance to set a career-high and will likely post the third consecutive 30+ goal campaign of his young career. That kind of goal production puts him in elite company, and is a huge part of why he was given the biggest deal possible.

This is, undoubtedly, the biggest deal the Maple Leafs could offer. An eight-year extension would have pushed Matthews’ cap hit into a place that made the rest of their roster unmanageable, given the huge contracts already handed out to John Tavares and William Nylander and upcoming negotiation with Mitch Marner—not to mention Kasperi Kapanen and Andreas Johnsson. Matthews’ likely eight-year ask was north of McDavid’s $12.5MM mark, which would have left the team in an almost untenable situation. In order to avoid that, they had to deal with the fact that Matthews could very well walk away in free agency a few years sooner.

Still, this has dramatic positives for the team. For one, the Maple Leafs now have a much clearer picture of where they stand financially moving forward, and have that knowledge well ahead of this year’s trade deadline. If the team is still interested in adding to this group, they can understand much more accurately the picture going forward. Second, after a long and public negotiation with Nylander dragged well into the season, the team can now cross the first name on their list off and focus on Marner’s next deal. That negotiation isn’t expected to start until after the season at the player’s request.

The Maple Leafs have a clear window for success. Signing Tavares last offseason likely shortened it, given the ramifications that it caused like shortening Matthews’ contract. GM Kyle Dubas and the rest of the organization are betting that bringing in the $11MM forward from the New York Islanders improves their chances in that shortened window and will hopefully result in their first Stanley Cup in decades. They just doubled down on that bet, and now have six years (including this one) to find some success in the playoffs before dealing with another Matthews contract.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Snapshots: Matthews, Winnik, Gerrie

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Talks continue between star center Auston Matthews and the Toronto Maple Leafs in hopes of coming to terms on an extension in the near future. TSN’s Pierre LeBrun reports that Matthews’ agent, Judd Moldaver, is expected in Toronto this week to continue negotiations. LeBrun feels that there is still a gap between the two sides, but momentum is pushing them in the right direction. As previously noted, Matthews is not seeking a maximum eight-year term, but rather a five- or six-year extension is his preference, which LeBrun reinforces. Matthews, 21, has 45 points through 36 games this season and is tied for ninth in the NHL with Sidney Crosby in points per game. Since his debut three years ago, the 2016 No. 1 overall pick, Matthews has recorded 177 points in 180 games, among the 20 best scorers in the NHL. That combination of youth and production at center is as rare as they come and Matthews is likely seeking a contract that will meet or exceed in AAV that of new teammate John Tavares, who signed with the Maple Leafs for $11MM per year this summer. Such high-stakes negotiations usually do not come together quickly, so this is likely just another step in a long process for both sides.

  • Veteran forward Daniel Winnik was unable to secure an NHL contract this off-season, but now finds himself as a priority free agent in Switzerland. Winnik ended up signing with Geneve-Servette of the NLA back in October and has been highly productive for the Swiss squad, notching 23 points in 31 games thus far. According to the Swiss Hockey News, head coach Chris McSorely is desperate to bring Winnik back next season and the experienced journeyman is open to an extension. Winnik, who played for the Minnesota Wild last season and joined the Boston Bruins on a PTO this fall, may have slight NHL interest in the off-season, but the 33-year-old is likely better off sticking in the NLA. With Geneve-Servette, not only has Winnik scored more easily than at any point in his eleven NHL seasons, but McSorely also calls him “a real leader and a positive voice in the locker room”.
  • A strong season for the Bowling Green State University Falcons has helped them to net another elite prospect for their program. Bowling Green, ranked No. 12 in the NCAA in the latest Pairwise polls, has received a commitment from 2019 NHL Draft hopeful Keighan Gerrie, per the Superior International Junior Hockey League. Gerrie is currently tearing up the SIJHL with 62 points in 34 games, among the top five scorers in the league and is far and away it’s best U-18 player. Gerrie is currently slated to play in the NAHL next year, but if he continues at nearly a two points-per-game pace this season, he will likely wind up in the USHL instead before joining Bowling Green. As for the NHL, Central Scouting ranked Gerrie at No. 140 among U.S. skaters in their latest rankings, but as his stock continues to rise, he could push to be a fourth- or fifth-round selection, which could make him the Falcons’ top prospect when he finally arrives. Junior goaltender Ryan Bednard, a 2015 seventh-rounder of the Florida Panthers, has been excellent this season but will be gone by the time Gerrie arrives. Sophomore forward and leading scorer Brandon Kruse, a fifth-round pick by the Vegas Golden Knights this past year, could still be on campus to form a dynamic duo with Gerrie in two years, but may have already turned pro by that time. Gerrie could be Bowling Green’s best hope of remaining among the top programs in college hockey moving forward.

Atlantic Notes: Price, Matthews, Skinner

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The Atlantic Division will be without a top star tonight at the All-Star game in Carey Price. While the Atlantic team should do fine with Andrei Vasilevskiy taking his place, the Montreal Canadiens are happy that their franchise goaltender is getting the rest he needs. The team has been very careful with Price this season as he hasn’t appeared in a back-to-back games since early December and have given him several therapy days.

However, Sean Gordon of The Athletic (subscription required) writes that he needs more than just rest, pointing out that the 31-year-old is a player who goes into the butterfly more than most goaltenders and is overworking himself whether its in a game or in practice. He points to a week in early January when he went to the butterfly 112 times in an overtime game on Jan. 14 against Montreal. The following day, he went into the butterfly 92 times in just 55 minutes in practice. By the end of the week, he had taken 301 shots, just in practice. That’s too many shots, according to Gordon.

The scribe adds that teams, especially Montreal, need to use more practice goalies, especially at this point in the season to alleviate some of the wear and tear on goaltenders’ bodies.

  • Despite recent meetings with his agent and general manager Kyle Dubas, The Toronto Sun’s Michael Traikos writes that Toronto Maple Leafs center Auston Matthews isn’t feeling any pressure to signing a contract quickly, even if Toronto wants to get it done as quickly as possible. In fact, Matthews said that he doesn’t worry about his contract, nor does he talk about it with teammate Mitch Marner, who will also be a restricted free agent this summer. “It’s not really something that comes up, I guess,” said Matthews. “If we do talk, it’s not really hockey-related, it’s really just anything. I think it’s just a big distraction as far as with the media and Toronto and the way they play it out and everything. But I don’t think it’s something that either of us stresses about too much in our minds. I just think we want to go out and play hockey and have fun. That’s why you have agents that take care of this stuff.”
  • Mike Harrington of the Buffalo News writes that there is no real news yet of whether Jeff Skinner and his agent are negotiating an extension, but the scribe believes with the year he is having, Buffalo might be forced to shell out $9MM per year and $70MM total to get Skinner locked in for the next eight years. Jack Eichel, who has bonded with Skinner on the ice this season, has made it clear he wants the team to extend him. “He’s gotten closer and closer with our group all year,” said Eichel. “You can see his performance, his compete and work ethic. The way he’s jelled and meshed with our group has been awesome. He’s scored some really big goals and it’s been a lot of fun to have him in the room. You can’t say enough good things about him.”

 

NHL Announces All-Star Skills Competitors

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The NHL All-Star Skills Competition is scheduled for this evening, and though Sidney Crosby and Nathan MacKinnon have both pulled out due to illness and injury there are still an incredible amount of talented players taking part. Most notable however may be the final entrant in the fastest skater competition: Kendall Coyne. A member of the US Women’s National Team, Coyne will take MacKinnon’s place after the Colorado Avalanche forward suffered a foot injury this week. The Olympic gold medalist is known for her speed and posted a 14.226 yesterday during event testing according to Emily Kaplan of ESPN. Though that wouldn’t have been enough to dethrone Connor McDavid last year, it would have put her ahead of Zach Werenski, Noah Hanifin and Josh Bailey in the competition. We’ll see what Coyne can do tonight, along with the rest of the competitors:

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Eight-Year Extension Unlikely For Auston Matthews

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Every year as the trade deadline approaches, teams have more than just swaps on their mind. In order to know exactly what you can go after to push yourself to the playoffs, you need to know how much available cap space you have going forward and what core pieces are locked up long-term. Even teams out of the playoff race have to push to get deals done, or else might end up having to trade an expiring asset. Long-term extensions often happen in the weeks leading up to the deadline, and last season was no different. Consider these deals that were all signed in February 2018:

Lars Eller, Washington Capitals – Five years, $17.5MM

Mikael Backlund, Calgary Flames – Six years, $32.1MM

Erik Gudbranson, Vancouver Canucks – Three years, $12MM

Josh Bailey, New York Islanders – Six years, $30MM

Patric Hornqvist, Pittsburgh Penguins – Five years, $26.5MM

It comes as no surprise then that nearly as many headlines are currently dominated by extension talk as by trade talk. In Ottawa, the Senators are desperately trying to get some indication of whether they can keep Matt Duchene and Mark Stone around long-term, or else will be forced to trade both of them. The Columbus Blue Jackets don’t seem to be getting any such indication from Artemi Panarin, but will likely hold on to him anyway given their intention to compete for the Stanley Cup. The San Jose Sharks are in a similar boat with Erik Karlsson, but also can’t even sign him to an eight-year extension until after the deadline passes.

Perhaps the biggest headline generator recently (as they often are) were the Toronto Maple Leafs, whose GM Kyle Dubas told media that the team had made progress on an Auston Matthews extension. While insiders quickly noted that progress in this case did not mean a deal was imminent, there is some reason to believe that Matthews could be one of these February signings.

First of all, the Maple Leafs are another team within striking distance of the Stanley Cup or at least a high playoff seed. Dubas knows that they could compete this season, and getting Matthews under contract gives him more information to make any other trade deadline decisions. Second it would make the summer a lot less stressful, given that the front office also has to deal with new contracts for Mitch Marner, Kasperi Kapanen and Andreas Johnsson, while also filling the hole left by pending UFA Jake Gardiner. Each of those contracts will take some work, and the Maple Leafs certainly don’t want them to extend into the season again like William Nylander’s negotiation did.

It might be easy to say hand over a blank check to Matthews and let him join the league’s elite with an eight-year extension that pays him more than $10MM per season. Not so fast, according to Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet, who writes that both the team and Matthews’ agent Judd Moldaver “see an eight-year deal as extremely unlikely.” The reasoning would be that the Maple Leafs can’t afford to buy out that many UFA seasons given how tight their cap will be going forward. Instead, suggests Friedman, the deal will be for five or six years, buying out just one or two free agent seasons in order to keep the cap hit relatively low.

In reality it actually might be the better move for Matthews too. Though an eight-year deal would certainly put him into the upper echelon of NHL earners immediately, it likely wouldn’t stay that way throughout the entire deal. With the salary cap set to increase again next season and CBA talks potentially changing the salary cap rules at some point down the line, Matthews could be overtaken by less talented peers in the years to come. If he truly believes in his talent—and nothing in his career path to this point suggests he does not—signing his next massive contract after five more seasons makes total sense. Remember that the Maple Leafs center won’t turn 22 until September, meaning he would exit a five or six year deal still in his prime.

While this kind of a deal might make sense for both the Maple Leafs and Matthews, it will be interesting to see whether other teams follow the same path. The Tampa Bay Lightning for instance have a brilliant young center of their own scheduled to hit restricted free agency in Brayden Point, and face similar cap crunch issues moving forward. If Point would be interested in a five-year deal of his own there could be benefits for both sides, though like Matthews it would put him at risk of leaving as a free agent a few years earlier.

If the Maple Leafs are to go after any player with term left on his contract, they need to get some certainty over what kind of cap hit Matthews will bring moving forward. That means Dubas might not be watching his phone waiting for another GM’s number to pop up over the next few weeks, but rather that of Moldaver.

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