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Buffalo Sabres Avoid Arbitration With Victor Olofsson

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One of the most intriguing arbitration cases scheduled for the next few days was Victor Olofsson, the Buffalo Sabres sniper who has scored 22 goals and 46 points in his 60-game NHL career. Despite being a relative newcomer to the NHL, Olofsson is already 25 and is a lot closer to unrestricted free agency than some of his rookie counterparts. His hearing was scheduled for November 4, but it appears as though it will not be necessary. The Sabres have signed Olofsson to a two-year contract that carries an average annual value of $3.05MM. Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic reports that it will pay Olofsson $2.85MM in 2020-21 and $3.25MM in 2021-22.

Not only does a two-year deal limit the cap hit and provides a very real chance for the Sabres to receive excess value out of the young forward, but it also leaves him a restricted free agent in 2022. While he has already turned 25, Olofsson’s birthday comes after the normal start of free agency meaning this deal does not walk him right to the UFA market. At its expiry, the two sides will have a chance to work out a long-term deal should his outstanding goal production continue.

Even though he has real 30-goal potential, there are some things to consider about Olofsson’s production so far. Only nine of his 22 career goals have come at even-strength, and this year he scored on 15.7% of his shots. If used properly he can be a game-changing presence on the powerplay, but he has still yet to prove that he can jump over the boards and produce at even-strength on a regular basis.

Still, there’s a lot to like about a deal that pays him about half of what the Sabres owe Kyle Okposo in each of the next three seasons, or what they could have found on the free agent market. Olofsson will join a top-six that suddenly looks quite impressive, after the offseason additions of Taylor Hall and Eric Staal. The team also has top prospect Dylan Cozens coming and still have Jack Eichel in the middle of it all, providing all-world production.

At the end of this deal, Olofsson will be arbitration-eligible once again and could potentially get himself to unrestricted free agency by taking that one-year award. He’ll also be owed a hefty qualifying offer of $3.25MM, something he could fall back on if his production dips but the Sabres still want to keep him around.

Because this was their final arbitration case, Buffalo will now receive a short buyout window starting two days from now.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Why Taylor Hall Will Be The Can’t-Miss UFA In 2021 That He Expected To Be In 2020

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Taylor Hall is certainly not complaining about making $8MM this season. Considering that the flat salary cap has depressed the market to the point that only four unrestricted free agents have signed deals with an AAV of $6MM or more this off-season – and Hall is the only forward to do so – the talented winger is likely content with his pact with the Buffalo Sabres. For now, that is. Heading into the 2019-20 season, even $8MM seemed like a low cap hit for Hall’s next deal and no one would have guessed that he would settle for a one-year deal. This was not the free agent frenzy and massive long-term deal expected for the Hart Trophy winner. However, one year could make all the difference.

Hall, 28, is one of the few players in the NHL who should not be content with an $8MM valuation. The 2010 first overall pick, Hall has scored at a rate of .9 points per game over his ten-year career, including four seasons at over a point per game and no seasons below .74 since his rookie year. A five-time 20-goal scorer, including 39 tallies (and 93 points) in his 2017-18 MVP season, Hall is a proven scorer in the NHL. A player who has also proven that he can excel on poor teams in which he is the undisputed best player, Hall has managed all of this production through rebuilds with the Edmonton Oilers and New Jersey Devils. The ceiling is limitless of what Hall could do on a talented contender.

Given the New Jersey Devils’ rebuild status entering the 2019-20 season, Hall had long been speculated to hit the open market once his contract expired. The Devils pursued a contract extension with their star forward, but to no avail. Perhaps Hall’s injury-plagued 33-game season in 2018-19 played a role in the Devils reluctance to ante up or maybe it was Hall who decided he had done enough for rebuilding squads. Regardless of the reason, Hall was traded in December. However, rather than joining a legitimate playoff team, Hall joined the fringe Arizona Coyotes and again took on the responsibility of being the team’s best player. The result of the whole season was 52 points in 65 games, a strong season for most but a disappointment for Hall as a steep drop-off in per-game production compared to his prior two seasons.

With an injury dominating his 2018-19 campaign and poor results (by his standards) to show for 2019-20, Hall’s MVP status had taken a hit two years removed from winning the Hart. It showed on the open market, as teams were not willing to hand out a long-term, big-money deal to a player that they would not have hesitated to hand a blank check not long ago. The flat cap also didn’t help, as teams have been risk-averse this off-season and not willing to sacrifice cap space by getting into bidding wars. Hall still had multiple offers, but by all accounts they were one-year or short-term offers at below market value.

How does the superstar winger rebound? It begins with the team he decided to sign with. Although it seemingly came out of nowhere, Hall’s decision to join the Buffalo Sabres could prove to be a stroke of genius. Joining Jack Eichel on the Sabres’ top line, Hall with finally play with an elite center for the first time in his career. Eichel’s per-game scoring numbers have improved in each of his five NHL seasons and he has been a point-per-game or better for two years in a row. With Hall at his side, that trend will only continue. Barring an injury, both players have 100-point upside this season.

There is one factor that could interrupt the dynamic scoring potential of Hall and Eichel and that is a trade. Even with the dangerous duo, the Sabres are still unlikely to challenge for a playoff spot and Hall may find himself back on the trade block at the 2021 deadline. However, another smart move made by Hall and his camp was to get a No-Movement Clause on his one-year deal. Unlike the moves to New Jersey and Arizona that Hall had no say in, if a trade is made this year, it will have to be with his approval. Aware of now the deadline move to the Coyotes failed to help his market value, Hall will be careful to choose a team where he can continue to score while finally making a deep run in the playoffs.

Once he is finally a free agent once more, and almost certainly coming off a strong season barring unforeseen circumstances, Hall will also benefit from a market with less competing talent. The 2021 free agent class does not have an Alex Pietrangelo to overshadow Hall. Alex Ovechkin is the biggest potential name, but he will almost certainly re-sign with the Washington Capitals and if not will not command a major deal at 35 years old. Other top forwards include Gabriel Landeskog, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Jaden Schwartz, Tomas Tatar, and veterans like Ryan Getzlaf, David Krejci, and soon-to-be Buffalo teammate Eric Staal. These are all fine players, but no one to rival Hall barring a breakout season. The defense and goalie markets are lacking any star players in their prime that could attract suitors away from spending on Hall.

Not only will he likely standout as the top free agent available, but Hall will also have more suitors who can afford his services. With more notice and time to plan for cap management, even a long-term, possibly double-digit AAV deal for Hall will be easier for teams to swallow. The need could be greater as well; the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft threatens to strip a number of teams of scorers and they may turn to Hall as the best possible replacement. Expansion also adds one more team to the mix, as the Seattle Kraken could not make a bigger splash in their first season than adding the free agent market’s biggest name.

And what about the possibility that Buffalo wants to keep Hall beyond this season? It may have been a different administration in charge, but the Sabres just recently showed a willingness to pay up for a player that they had invested in when they signed Jeff Skinner to an eight-year, $72MM contract after acquiring him via trade. While the Sabres may already have $19MM invested in Eichel Skinner per season for years to come, they were willing to include Hall to make that $27MM this season and might not shy away from $30MM+ per year for their top three forwards.

The future is bright for Hall one way or another. It may not have been the off-season result that he or anyone else expected at this time last year, but at this time next year Hall will very likely beginning the next stage of his career on a lucrative long-term deal. How he gets there will be one of the best stories to follow in the coming NHL season.

Sabres Re-Sign Linus Ullmark To A One-Year Deal

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The Sabres have avoided salary arbitration for the second time today.  This time, it’s goaltender Linus Ullmark who has avoided a hearing as the team announced that they’ve signed him to a one-year, $2.6MM contract.  The deal comes in just above our $2.55MM projection.

The two sides exchanged figures on Saturday with Buffalo offering $1.8MM and Ullmark requesting $4.1MM.  As expected, the contract checks in a bit below the midpoint of $2.95MM.

Ullmark had a decent showing last season, putting up a 2.69 GAA with a .915 SV% in 34 starts, numbers that were a lot better than his showing in 2018-19 and his platoon mate in Carter Hutton.  Despite that, however, he was basically in a platoon situation all season long, a situation that could once again present itself in 2020-21.

Most notable about this contract is that it takes the 27-year-old right to unrestricted free agency next offseason.  While this has been a tough free agent market for quite a few players, that hasn’t been the case for goaltenders as they went off the board early and often with many of them earning raises.  Part of that is due to the expectation of a condensed schedule which necessitated the need for a better backup but as more teams shift towards tandems instead of a better starter with a weaker backup, Ullmark could be well-positioned to get a bigger deal next offseason.

It’s also worth noting that Hutton is an unrestricted free agent in 2021 as well.  All of a sudden, GM Kevyn Adams will have an opportunity to significantly change things up at that position a year from now and take a chance at shoring up a position that has been a weak spot for the past several years.

Buffalo’s work this offseason isn’t done just yet, however.  Even after getting a deal done with Ullmark and Sam Reinhart earlier today, the Sabres still have one more player eligible for salary arbitration in Victor Olofsson whose hearing is scheduled for November 4th.  They have roughly $6MM in space to work with so they’ll have no trouble staying under the salary cap when that deal gets done and there should be enough left to try to add another player on the open market if they so desire.  If not, they’ll enter 2020-21 with a fair bit of cap space to work with.

Arbitration Breakdown: Linus Ullmark

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While the Sabres were able to avoid one looming arbitration hearing earlier today when they re-signed Sam Reinhart, they have one on the horizon with goaltender Linus Ullmark.  If they’re unable to reach an agreement before Monday’s hearing, they’ll be forced to await the ruling of the arbitrator as mid-hearing settlements can’t be reached this time.  Here’s a closer look at his case.

Filings

Team: $1.8MM
Player: $4.1MM
Midpoint: $2.95MM

The Numbers

Ullmark has only been an NHL regular for two years now and both of those were spent in basic platoon situations with veteran Carter Hutton.  Hutton has made 78 starts in that span with Ullmark checking in at 68 but the latter has had the slightly better numbers.  The fact that Ullmark hasn’t been able to stake his claim to a bigger share of the workload certainly doesn’t help his arbitration case as it takes away the ability to use mid-tier starters as comparable contracts.  Further restricting his options is his limited NHL experience overall; while he has played in parts of five straight NHL seasons, he hasn’t yet reached 100 games played.

On the flip side, what will help his cause is that Ullmark did improve his numbers considerably last season from his performance in 2018-19.  His save percentage went up by ten points, his GAA went down by 42 points, and his win percentage of 50% was also an improvement and even stands out on a team that only won 43% of his games.  By no means was this a dominant platform year but Ullmark’s improvement will look favorable in the eyes of an arbitrator and helps when looking through comparable contracts.

2019-20 Stats: 34 GP (34 starts), 17-14-3 record, 2.69 GAA, .915 SV%, 1 SO
Career Stats: 97 GP (92 starts), 41-41-10 record, 2.81 GAA, .911 SV%, 3 SO

Potential Comparables

Comparable contracts are restricted to those signed within restricted free agency which means UFA deals and entry-level pacts are ineligible to be used.  The contracts below fit within those parameters.  Player salaries (or current-year equivalents) also fall within the parameters of the submitted numbers by both sides.

Alexandar Georgiev (Rangers): Let’s look at one signed in recent weeks as a starting point.  While this is a post-ELC deal (Ullmark is three seasons past that point), his numbers this season are relatively comparable to Ullmark’s as are his career totals.  On top of that, he subjectively appears to fall within the same category as Ullmark – a young goalie with some perceived upside but whose overall performance seems to fall just below that of a starting netminder.

Contract (2020): Two years, $2.425MM AAV, 2.98 CH%
Platform Stats: 34 GP (32 starts), 17-14-2 record, 3.04 GAA, .910 SV%, 2 SO
Career Stats: 77 GP (71 starts), 35-31-7 record, 3.00 GAA, .913 SV%, 4 SO

Joonas Korpisalo (Blue Jackets): Korpisalo’s playoff performance skews things a bit more in his favor but the regular season numbers are much closer.  His injury paved the way for Elvis Merzlikins to take a big chunk of playing time for himself and as a result, his 2019-20 numbers are quite similar to Ullmark’s and again, he’s a netminder that has yet to establish himself as a full-fledged starter and it’s worth noting as well that Korpisalo signed this deal in the same spot as Ullmark is, one year from UFA eligibility.

Contract (2020): Two years, $2.8MM AAV, 3.44 CH%
Platform Stats: 37 GP (35 starts), 19-12-5 record, 2.60 GAA, .911 SV%, 2 SO
Career Stats: 127 GP (116 starts), 60-43-14 record, 2.80 GAA, .908 SV%, 3 SO

Michal Neuvirth (Capitals) – Given the narrow window to try to work with (possible future starters with mixed results and around 100 career GP), let’s go back in time a little bit.  There was a time where Washington hoped that Neuvirth could be a starter of the future.  His platform year for this contract came in the lockout-shortened season so some extrapolation is necessary.  This likely represents the high end of what Ullmark could stand to realistically receive.

Contract (2013): Two years, $2.4MM AAV, 3.73 CH%
Current-Year Equivalent: $3.04MM
Platform Stats: 13 GP (12 starts), 4-5-2 record, 2.74 GAA, .910 SV%, 0 SO
Career Stats: 121 GP (105 starts), 55-35-11 record, 2.66 GAA, .909 SV%, 7 SO

David Rittich (Flames) – Let’s now look at someone who had even less of a track record than Ullmark.  When Rittich signed this deal, he had basically two years under his belt, one as a backup and one as the strong-side platoon starter.  His platform numbers are slightly better than Ullmark’s but Ullmark’s longer track record could help offset that.  Like Korpisalo, this is another deal in the one year from UFA category.

Contract (2019): Two years, $2.75MM AAV, 3.37 CH%
Current-Year Equivalent: $2.75MM (since the Upper Limit remains unchanged)
Platform Stats: 45 GP (42 starts), 27-9-5 record, 2.61 GAA, .911 SV%, 1 SO
Career Stats: 67 GP (58 starts), 35-15-8 record, 2.70 GAA, .909 SV%, 1 SO

Projection

Going through the list, it starts to become clear where Ullmark’s realistic settling spot is.  A one-year contract should check in a little higher than Georgiev’s but below that of Rittich’s or Korpisalo’s.  (Ullmark’s camp will likely try to argue Neuvirth but the more recent deals are the better comparables.)  If it goes to a hearing, the arbitrator is limited to a one-year award as Ullmark is only one year away from UFA eligibility.  That one-year award should check in around $2.55MM.  If they settle before the hearing and do a two-year contract to avoid having him and Hutton expire at the same time, the AAV should check in closer to $2.7MM, just below Korpisalo and Rittich.  Either way, it should come in below the midpoint of their two filings.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Atlantic Notes: Sabres, Stuetzle, Dermott

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With quite a few changes having been made to the Buffalo Sabres roster this offseason, including the additions of Taylor Hall and Eric Staal into their top six, Buffalo News’ Lance Lysowski writes that the team is done upgrading their roster, but a possibility of a trade still exists as the team is overloaded on defense.

The scribe writes that the Sabres could look to find a taker for either Colin Miller or Brandon Montour for a draft pick, which would open up a spot for 23-year-old William Borgen, a highly touted St. Cloud State player who has played just four NHL games so far after two years in the AHL.

  • Ottawa Senators newly-drafted forward Tim Stuetzle might have trouble joining the Senators for the upcoming 2020-21 due to his contract with Alder Manheim in Germany. The European rule is that a player with a valid cannot sign an NHL contract after Aug. 15. While that rule doesn’t make as much sense considering the draft was on Oct. 6, the rule still applies, according to deputy commissioner Bill Daly. The Athletic’s Hailey Salvian (subscription required) writes that Mannheim’s general manager Jan-Axel Alavaara said the only way Stuetzle could play for the Senators this season is if Mannheim releases him from his contract, which would then freely allow the 18-year-old to join Ottawa when the 2020-21 season begins. That would also require the German Federation to sign off on it. Salvian notes that no decision has been made on whether Mannheim would allow Stuetzle out of his contract, but the third-overall pick is still recovering from a fractured hand that he suffered on Oct. 13 and was given a six to eight-week recovery time. Of course, neither the DEL or the NHL have started their seasons with the DEL season having been postponed twice already with a current timetable of a December return. Regardless, expect general manager Pierre Dorion to continue to negotiate with Mannheim.
  • After being forced to accept a one-year pact with the Toronto Maple Leafs, defenseman Travis Dermott will have to bet on himself to benefit from a better deal next season. The blueliner will have to fight for a spot on the Maple Leafs’ blueline, according to Jonas Siegel (subscription required), who adds that Dermott will be fighting for playing time with Justin Holl, Zach Bogosian, Mikko Lehtonen and Rasmus Sandin for the final three spots on Toronto’s defense and easily could be forced to play on his off-hand in order to earn minutes.

Buffalo Sabres Re-Sign Sam Reinhart

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With the filing numbers due today in the arbitration case between the Buffalo Sabres and forward Sam Reinhart, the two sides instead have come to terms on an extension. However, the new deal looks more like one that might have been rewarded by an arbitrator anyhow than the long-term agreement many expected. The Sabres have announced a one-year, $5.2MM deal with their young forward. Reinhart will be a restricted free agent with arbitration rights again next summer.

Reinhart, 24, has seemingly settled for a one-year deal rather than pursue a long-term contract that almost certainly would have resulted in a higher AAV. The team likely pushed for this short-term resolution, perhaps still skeptical about Reinhart’s long-term value. There is no doubting that the 2014 second overall pick is at least a reliable top-six forward that any NHL team would be lucky to have. Reinhart has not missed a game in the past three seasons and has only missed six total since becoming a full-time player in 2015-16. In his five pro seasons, Reinhart has at least 42 points each year, including four 20+ goal seasons and a career high 65 points in 2018-19. While these are impressive numbers, Reinhart’s 82-game pace this past season would have resulted in a decline to 59 points and still would have kept him from cracking 30 goals. The Sabres may simply want to wait one more year, and risk the price tag on Reinhart going up considerably, to see if that 65-point campaign was an outlier or what’s to be expected for years to come.

Should Reinhart return to 60+ point production in 2020-21, he will be looking at a significant raise in the off-season. Now just one year away from unrestricted free agency when this contract expires, the Sabres will be buying up almost entirely UFA years when they re-sign Reinhart to a multi-year deal. What might the market value be for a soon-to-be 25-year-old with multiple 60+ point seasons on his resume who regularly scores 20+ goals and is a possession leader for his team? Easily over $7MM per year.

Another reason why the Sabres might not have wanted to jump on a long-term deal worth $6-7MM annually this off-season is their current salary cap situation. While Buffalo is not quite in cap trouble (see the Taylor Hall contract), their flexibility is starting to run out. After signing Reinhart, CapFriendly projects the Sabres to have just over $9MM in cap space with just 19 players on the current roster. While arbitration was avoided with Reinhart, the club still has a pair of major cases to be settled. Projected starting goaltender Linus Ullmark is scheduled for a hearing on Monday, with the salary range on an award set at $1.8-$4.1MM and a resolution likely to fall somewhere in that area as well. Early next month, they also have a case with Victor Olofsson on the docket. The 25-year-old forward was an older rookie this past season, but his 42 points in 54 games was impressive all the same. A player who outscored Reinhart on an 82-game pace (64 points) in his first NHL season is likely to command a sizeable salary as well. With the result of those two cases still unknown, first-round prospect Casey Mittelstadt in need of a new deal as well, an a couple of additional roster spots still needing to be filled, the Sabres don’t have as much cap space as it may seem and keeping the salary down on Reinhart may have prevented the team from having to make some difficult roster decisions to get under the cap this season.

Sabres, Linus Ullmark Exchange Arbitration Figures

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With their scheduled arbitration hearing now 48 hours away, the Sabres and goaltender Linus Ullmark have exchanged their requested awards.  The gap, as usual, is fairly substantial, as Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reports (Twitter link) that Buffalo has submitted a $1.8MM figure and Ullmark’s side has come in at $4.1MM.

Of course, the standard caveat applies that the arbitrator doesn’t have to pick one of the two figures and instead, will almost certainly pick something between the two.  New this year in arbitration cases is that once a hearing begins, it has to go to an award and settlement discussions are no longer permitted at that point.  As Ullmark’s asking price comes in below the walkaway threshold of $4,538,938, that won’t be an option if Buffalo is unhappy with the award.

The 27-year-old is in his final year of RFA eligibility so the submissions could only be for one year.  Statistically speaking, he was considerably better than veteran Carter Hutton but the two basically split the starts last season (34 for Ullmark, 30 for Hutton).  Overall, Ullmark had a relatively strong platform year, posting a 2.69 GAA and a .915 SV% which was a considerable improvement on his numbers in 2018-19 (3.11, .905).

Although he has seen NHL action in five straight seasons, Ullmark doesn’t have a particularly long NHL track record as he has only made 97 career appearances.  That certainly won’t help his case if it goes to a hearing and it may be what Buffalo is banking on with their offer which is on the low end for backup goaltenders.

A one-year deal would put both Ullmark and Hutton on track to reach unrestricted free agency in 2021.  If new GM Kevyn Adams doesn’t want to be faced with the prospect of having no established goalies under contract a year or so from now, it wouldn’t be surprising to see a last-ditch effort to get Ullmark signed for a little longer before Monday’s hearing arrives.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Buffalo Sabres Re-Sign Casey Nelson

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The Buffalo Sabres have re-signed Casey Nelson to a one-year contract worth $700K. The veteran defenseman has played his entire career in the Buffalo organization but became an unrestricted free agent earlier this month.

Nelson, 28, was an undrafted free agent signing by the Sabres in 2016 out of Minnesota State-Mankato and has been in the system ever since. He has played 93 games at the NHL level but was actually limited to AHL-only appearances in 2019-20.

Even if that’s where he will eventually end up, it’s nice for the Sabres to have a player with that much NHL experience at the ready for what will likely be a gruelling, condensed 2020-21 campaign. His familiarity with the organization and inexpensive contract will come in handy when injuries strike.

Scott Wilson Signs With Florida Panthers

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The Florida Panthers have added some depth to their forward group, agreeing to terms with Scott Wilson on a one-year, two-way contract. Wilson has spent the last few seasons in the Buffalo Sabres organization, playing mostly at the minor league level.

Now 28, Wilson has carved out a long professional career after being the 209th overall selection in 2011. After three seasons at UMass-Lowell, he signed with the Pittsburgh Penguins in 2014 and has suited up in more than 200 NHL games in the years since. Between 2016-2018 he was a regular in the league, even scoring 26 points in 78 games with the Penguins before helping them win the Stanley Cup in 2017. In Buffalo, things haven’t gone as smoothly, with Wilson playing more at the AHL level over the past two seasons.

There is certainly a chance that he can find a full-time roster position in Florida, though it seems more likely that Wilson will hit the waiver wire again before the season begins and spend most of his time in the AHL. That is of course if the AHL has a season, which isn’t certain at this point.

If it doesn’t, Wilson is exactly the type of player that can be kept around in a taxi squad of sorts, ready to jump into the lineup in case of injury.

Buffalo Sabres Sign Steven Fogarty

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The Buffalo Sabres have signed free agent forward Steven Fogarty to a one-year, two-way contract worth $700K at the NHL level. The 27-year-old has spent the last several seasons in the New York Rangers organization, splitting time between the AHL and NHL.

Fogarty began his professional career with the Hartford Wolf Pack in 2016, signing out of Notre Dame after four successful seasons. The 2011 third-round pick would score 20 points in each of his first two minor league seasons, earning his first NHL call-up in 2018. Since then, he has put up a 52-point season in the AHL and played 18 games in the NHL but is still looking for his first point at the highest level.

For the Sabres, the 6’3″ winger will provide some additional forward depth at an inexpensive price. If he’s to earn a real opportunity to compete for NHL minutes out of camp though, he’ll have to beat out some younger, more dynamic wingers. The Sabres entered the offseason with only a handful of forwards under contract, but have added names like Taylor Hall, Eric Staal, Cody Eakin and Tobias Rieder over the last few weeks. That should give them a much more well-rounded attack, but does make the battle for those last few spots even more intense.

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