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Oshie Contract A Huge Gamble

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When the Washington Capitals opted to re-sign T.J. Oshie to a $5.75 MM AAV for the next seven years, the hockey world was rightfully befuddled. Most expected Karl Alzner, Justin Williams and Oshie to depart, while the team locked up Evgeny Kuznetsov and retained other important pieces. Some anticipated the possible exposure or dumping of Brooks Orpik and his $5.5 MM for the next two seasons. Instead, the Capitals decided to pay the 30 year old Oshie to an extraordinarily long deal.

Oshie has indeed been one of the best wingers in the game over the last few seasons. He’s broken 50 points each of the last four campaigns, and his production on the powerplay has been incredibly valuable in maintaining high-octane offense. He’s also performed admirably in the post-season on a team where quite a few other individuals have fallen short. 22 of his 31 post-season points have come with Washington in just the last two years. That said, he will be 37 at the conclusion of this deal. It’s almost unheard of to maintain the production or speed you had at 30 when you are 37. Oshie’s decline could come as soon as the next few seasons. Oshie easily could have gotten this term on the open market as the best available winger, but is it wise to invest so heavily in this particular player?

In an off-season where many teams opted to go with shorter-term on unrestricted free agents, Oshie’s contract stands out as a future potential albatross. But how much will it impact Washington’s window? Well, the short answer is that we won’t know until the team finds itself playing games next spring.

Oshie’s signing, in conjunction with the Kuznetzov signing, forced the movement of Marcus Johansson from the roster. Johansson actually scored more points than Oshie last year, and his game is more well-rounded. Oshie’s Corsi For % has consistently declined over the last two seasons in Washington, Johansson’s has increased. Although Oshie has greater creativity and flash, Johansson has been a consistent performer of late, and had two years remaining on a very reasonable $4.58 MM contract. Perhaps more importantly, Johansson is four years Oshie’s junior. On a team that will need to fill gaps internally, going with the younger player is not often the wrong decision. Especially with losing both Nate Schmidt and Alzner on the backend, they will need younger players to contribute at every position in relief this season.

Ultimately, this decision will be judged in terms of post-season success. Still, when the team has lost two top-six wingers and a top pairing defenseman, it’s hard not to question the management’s handling of the situation. Alex Ovechkin and crew are still looking for a conference finals berth, and taking such steps backwards in the Metropolitan Division can only draw fire from an increasingly frustrated fanbase.

Early Expansion Protection News: Capitals, Kings, Flames, Predators, And More

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The 2017 NHL Expansion Draft is an exciting process. If you’re too riled up to wait until the lists are officially submitted in the morning, you’re in luck. As could be expected, information leaks are flooding in on who was and wasn’t protected by their teams ahead of the deadline this afternoon. This list will be updated all night long as more news comes in:

  • One not so obvious choice has been made in Nashville. Adam Vingan of The Tennessean answered a question on the minds of many, reporting that the Predators did in fact protect forward Calle Jarnkrok. With the rest of the eight-skater list all but set in stone with goalie Pekka Rinne, defensemen Roman Josi, P.K. Subban, Ryan Ellis, and Mattias Ekholm, and star forwards Filip Forsberg, Ryan Johansen, and Viktor Arvidsson, the final forward spot came down to Jarnkrok, signed long-term, or James Neal, an elite scorer with just one year remaining on his contract. It seems that Neal will be open for selection, alongside names like Colton Sissons, Colin Wilson, and Craig Smith. Vignan adds that no deal has been struck between Vegas and the Predators to protect any of those players, with Nashville especially liking to retain Neal and Sissons.
  • Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reported that, interestingly enough, young Detroit Red Wings defenseman Xavier Ouellet was not protected by his team. This is the first real surprise of the expansion process and the first protection news that doesn’t match up with PHR’s Expansion Primer projections. The 23-year-old skated in 66 games this season for Detroit, third most among defenseman, and his 12 points tied that of top-pair man Danny DeKeyser. Yet, Ouellett will not join DeKeyser and Mike Green in protection, instead beaten out by another teammate. GM Ken Holland, who has gotten the reputation of perhaps being too loyal, possibly chose aging veteran Niklas Kronwall over Ouellet. Hopefully that doesn’t come back to bite the rebuilding Red Wings.
  • Another name confirmed to be unprotected is young Vancouver Canucks center Brendan Gaunce. Vancouver sports anchor Rick Dhaliwal was told that that Gaunce, a 2012 first-round pick, did not make the protection list for the Canucks, expected to be a 7/3 format, meaning that the team saw him as outside the top seven forwards on the team. The 23-year-old two-way specialist has upside, but after registering just five points in 57 games last season, no one will blame Vancouver for that choice.

Las Vegas Notes: Big Contracts, Ovechkin, Beleskey, Moulson

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Expect the Las Vegas Golden Knights trading to start within the next few days or that’s what general manager George McPhee said yesterday at the NHL Scouting Combine in Buffalo. The veteran GM of the new expansion franchise said he expects to pick up some big contracts over the next few weeks leading up to the expansion draft as the market to unload expensive contracts is booming.

“We’ll take a few of those, for the right price,” said McPhee, who was constantly being stopped at the combine by other general managers to discuss possible trades.

The Las Vegas Review Journal’s Steve Carp writes that McPhee is looking for draft picks as he still believes the best way to build a dominant franchise is through the draft, despite the fact that his team should benefit greatly from the upcoming expansion draft. And with so many teams in need of salary cap relief, the Golden Knights might be able to not only get a quality player from that team via the expansion draft, they might also be able to bring in plenty of picks to get the franchise off the ground. After all, the team must add salary to their own team as well. So why not get some assets for doing that?

McPhee said the team is already far along in discussions with several teams and some trades may get announced soon. One trade that has already been discussed is that the Chicago Blackhawks are willing to offer Trevor van Riemsdyk to the Golden Knights to unload the contract of Marcus Kruger ($3.08MM over next two years). Another report by Gavin Lee on June 2, had the Columbus Blue Jackets trying to unload the contract of injury-retired David Clarkson ($5.25MM over three years).

  • McPhee did say the team will not look to acquire any marquee names as the general manager wants the face of the Golden Knights’ franchise to be the logo, not a particular player as he shot down the suggestion of trading for Washington Capitals’ star Alex Ovechkin, who McPhee drafted in 2004as the GM in Washington. “We’ll try to get as many good players as we can. But it’s all about building the right team, about chemistry and all those cliches. But that’s real,” McPhee added.
  • Speaking of unloading salary, Boston Herald’s Steve Conroy suggests the Boston Bruins clear some cap space and says the Bruins should offer up veteran Matt Beleskey to Las Vegas along with a third-round pick to take on the winger’s $3.8MM contract over the next three years. Beleskey, who suffered through an injury-plagued season, only put up three goals and five assists over 49 games this past season. The 28-year-old is coming off a 15-goal season in 2015-16 and a 22-goal season with the Anaheim Ducks in 2014-15. Conroy even suggested it might be worth tossing in a second-rounder if the Golden Knights balk at a third-round offer.
  • Jon Vogl of the Buffalo News suggests the Sabres should offer draft picks to the Golden Knights to convince the team to select Matt Moulson and his $5MM contract over the next two years. Moulson has scored just scored 22 goals over the past two seasons with the Sabres and a trade to unload the 33-year-veteran could help improve Buffalo’s cap situation quickly.

Capitals’ GM Will Not Trade Alex Ovechkin “Right Now”

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Brian MacLellan met with the media for nearly forty minutes today, and gave some very open and honest answers on several subjects including the standing of his captain and face of the franchise Alex Ovechkin. From the Associated Press’ Stephen Whyno, we get the full answer regarding Ovechkin:

People are looking for a major solution to what we have going on. I think part of it is they watch certain things in his game and then it shows up and they say, ’That’s not acceptable.’ But he’s a big part of our franchise, a big part of our history. He’s been a big part of where we’re at as an organization and just to casually say, ’Let’s trade him for what, for who?’ I don’t think it makes sense from an organizational point of view. Maybe at some point if there’s a legitimate hockey deal that came available, but I don’t know that that’s where we’re at right now. I just think he’s got a history here, he’s a big part of this franchise and he’ll continue to be going forward.

Obviously, trading Ovechkin was something dreamed up by many frustrated Capitals’ fans and critics after their latest early exit from the NHL playoffs. Not only is he still a very effective goal scorer in the league, but he has tremendous marketing value in Washington and abroad, and has a contract that would be extremely difficult to move even if they wanted to. That said, MacLellan’s answer does leave the door open a crack for a trade in the future, and does seem to indicate some frustration with his level of play at the end of the season.

According to Tarik El-Bashir of CSN Mid-Atlantic, MacLellan also told reporters that Ovechkin is going to have to “train in a different way” this summer in order to keep up with the changing dynamics of the league. As the NHL continues to get younger and faster, Ovechkin’s power game is starting to slip into the past. That’s not to say that he doesn’t have the skating ability to compete, and at 31 he is far from over-the-hill. With four years left on his current contract, Ovechkin will earn $10MM per season (with a $9.54MM cap-hit) until 2021. His place in hockey history is already etched, though has never won a Stanley Cup.

Metro Division Notes: Capitals, Smith, Flyers, Shero

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With perhaps the most complete team top-to-bottom in franchise history, the Washington Capitals believed they had all the pieces to finally propel themselves past the arch-rival Pittsburgh Penguins and into the Eastern Conference Final for the first time in Alex Ovechkin’s 12-year NHL career. However, after yet another disappointing defeat at the hands of the Penguins, Washington must now once again go back to the drawing board in search of the right formula. Unlike in years past when the roster’s shortcomings were easy to identify, Capitals GM Brian McLellan will have a much tougher time this summer identifying an obvious solution to the team’s deficiencies, as Isabelle Khurshudyan of The Washington Post writes.

As Khurshudyan notes, since assuming the top job with the Caps, MacLellan has strategically set about filling holes on the roster as he attempted to construct a championship team. First he went to work to address the team’s defense corps, inking veteran blue liners Matt Niskanen and Brooks Orpik as free agents in the summer of 2014. The next year, the GM brought in Justin Williams and T.J. Oshie via free agency and trade respectively, to “bolster the top-six.” Last summer, MacLellan dealt two draft picks to Montreal for Lars Eller and signed Brett Connolly to add more speed and skill to the team’s third line. The cherry on top was acquiring prized, puck-moving defenseman Kevin Shattenkirk at the trade deadline, adding an impact player to an already stacked lineup while at the same time keeping him from going to a conference rival (it was believed Pittsburgh and the N.Y. Rangers were also in the Shattenkirk sweepstakes). While it all added up to perhaps the best team in the league on paper, in the end Washington couldn’t exorcise their postseason demons and once again are left wondering what could have been.

Clearly MacLellan will again try to construct a Stanley Cup-caliber club but with Oshie, Shattenkirk, Karl Alzner and Williams all scheduled to be UFA’s, and with less than $22MM available in projected cap space, it’s likely the team will lose at least two key contributors from that group. Complicating matters is the fact that Evgeny Kuznetsov, Andre Burakovsky and Dmitry Orlov will be RFA’s and in line for significant raises over their 2017 salaries. Barring some savvy salary cap maneuverings this summer, it’s quite possible the Capitals best chance to win a Stanley Cup with Ovechkin on the roster just passed them by.

More from the Metro:

  • Though many suspected the New York Rangers would land the aforementioned Shattenkirk at the trade deadline, the team instead balked at paying the higher price and made a less expensive move for fellow blue liner Brendan Smith. Like many deadline acquisitions, Smith struggled at times while settling into a new organization and adapting to a different system but the veteran blue liner found his stride in the postseason, providing much needed bite and steady play on the back end for the Blueshirts. It’s common knowledge the Rangers will attempt to upgrade the puck-moving ability and mobility on the team’s blue line but Smith showed he may be part of that solution and the Rangers might be wise to consider re-signing the pending UFA. For his part, Smith would welcome a return to Manhattan, according to Brett Cyrgalis of the New York Post, saying: “I really enjoyed being here. I like the guys, the group.” After making $2.75MM in 2016-17, Smith will undoubtedly be able to generate offers in the range of $4MM annually on the open market. But at just 28 years old, re-signing Smith to a three or four-year pact at that price point might prove to be more prudent than luring the top prospective UFA blue liner, Shattenkirk, to the Blueshirts.
  • While the 2016-17 campaign will go down as a disappointing one for the Philadelphia Flyers, Dave Scott, president and CEO of the club’s parent company, Comcast Spectacor, would rather focus on the successful development of the organization’s younger players, as Sam Carchidi of Philly.com writes. GM Ron Hextall has avoided quick fixes in the free agent and trade markets and instead patiently rebuilt the team, focusing on the draft-and-develop model. Even though the team failed to qualify for a postseason berth, the successful debut of prized defense prospect Ivan Provorov served notice that Hextall’s plan is beginning to bear fruit. Carchidi noted that Scott is also excited about the potential of prospects Oskar Lindblom and Mike Vecchione. It also doesn’t hurt the Flyers rebuild that Philadelphia jumped several spots in the draft lottery, snagging the #2 overall selection and the opportunity to select one of Nolan Patrick, the consensus top talent in this draft for much of the last year, or Nico Hischier to further bolster an impressive pool of young talent. If Hextall can find a competent starting goaltender, either in free agency or via trade, it wouldn’t be out of the question to see Philadelphia make a huge leap in the standings in 2017-18 and qualify for the postseason.
  • The New Jersey Devils may not have enjoyed much on-ice success in 2016-17 but those struggles were mitigated at least somewhat by overcoming the odds to win the NHL draft lottery. Now the Devils will have the chance to add an impact offensive talent to a roster that badly needs more skill. But lost in the shuffle of New Jersey’s good fortune is the fact the team also has two second-round choices, their own and Boston’s courtesy of the 2016 trade deadline trade of Lee Stempniak to the Bruins. While not nearly as valuable as the first overall selection, boasting two second-round picks will give the club a chance to add two more good young players to the system. However, as Chris Ryan of NJ.com notes, Devils GM Ray Shero does not have a particularly good track record of success in the second round. Going back to his days as GM in Pittsburgh, Shero and his teams have made a total of eight choices in the second round. Of that group, Scott Harrington (#54 overall in 2011) leads the way in NHL games played (47), goals (1) and points (4). Of course it is fair to point out that Shero’s recent selections are still young enough to carve out successful big league careers. In fact, goaltender Tristan Jarry (#44 overall in 2013) would be in line to assume the understudy role in Pittsburgh, assuming the team moves Marc-Andre Fleury after the season. Still, if New Jersey’s rise back to relevance is to happen sooner rather than later, Shero would do well to find quality players with the team’s two second-rounders in June.

Should The Capitals Trade Alex Ovechkin?

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For many, the latest second-round dud in a long history of stinging defeats for the Washington Capitals was the final straw. Commentators and analysts from around the league and in the nation’s capital have openly contemplated whether the team’s captain and generational talent Alex Ovechkin should be traded. While there is a case to be made for considering the option, there is a long list of reasons Washington would get fleeced in such a deal and should avoid it at all costs.

Firstly, Ovechkin is not likely to bring back a player anywhere near his caliber. Granted, all 30 other franchises would be clamoring for a chance to bid on his services. However, these would almost certainly involve lesser players. The old adage of “never trade quality for quantity” would hold true in this scenario. Although the Capitals could completely restock their 3rd and 4th lines, their prospect pool, as well as add a difference maker – the bottom line is they lose the best player in the deal.

Second, Ovechkin is a pure goal scoring menace. He dictates the flow of play when he is on his game in a way few other players can. His hitting ability and aggressiveness only add dimensions to the offense he brings to a team. There are few players who can score with as much consistency and be relied upon to bury a puck. He has accumulated 558 goals in 921 games. Other than Steven Stamkos and Phil Kessel, no one is even in the same stratosphere. When a game is on the line, you need a player who can score – Ovechkin can, even if he didn’t this spring. And his playoff goals per game – well, he’s potted 44 in 46 games played – good for be 24th all time.

Third, nearly all historical examples of megastars being traded have turned into total backfires for the team. When 19 year-old Tyler Seguin was dealt to the Dallas Stars along with Rich Peverley from the Boston Bruins due to rumored conduct issues, the return was minimal. Loui Eriksson has ultimately contributed to his team after long slumps and Joe Morrow has just begun to crack the lineup. Reilly Smith has turned into a serviceable player, but Seguin’s 306 points in 305 games for Dallas easily dwarf Smith’s efforts. When Jaromir Jagr was dealt in his late prime to the Washington Capitals, the Penguins went 5 years without a Playoff appearance and suffered further heavy financial losses. Michal Sivek, and Ross Lupaschuk, both intriguing players at the time, went on to play a combined 41 games, and in 7 seasons Kris Beech only scored 25 goals. When dealing with prospect and pick returns, there is no sure thing.

Moving Ovechkin may seem to make sense in the aftermath of yet another playoff disappointment, but trading generational talents rarely works out well. Although changes are certainly coming Washington’s way, it would likely be a mistake to move on from the future hall-of-fame left wing. He is still earning his $9.5 MM contract, but a year removed from a Rocket Richard trophy.

Snapshots: Ovechkin, Sharks, Panik

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While Alex Ovechkin has been the butt of many jokes since his Washington Capitals were once again eliminated in the second round of the Stanley Cup playoffs by the Pittsburgh Penguins, it turns out that it’s not just his pride that has taken a beating this spring. The superstar forward will not join Team Russia at the World Championships because of a lower-body injury. Ovechkin apparently had been taking “pain numbing injections” just to stay on the ice for the Capitals, possibly because of the low hit he took from Nazem Kadri in the first round.

Ovechkin has played in the World Championships an amazing twelve times over his career, and has always been willing to suit up for his country on the international stage. Dmitry Orlov and Evgeny Kuznetsov will join Team Russia for the tournament. The pair are both restricted free agents this summer, and will be a big part of the introspective offseason Washington has ahead of them.

  • Henrik Lundqvist will also be attending the tournament to play for Sweden, who desperately need his help. The team is currently going with a duo of Viktor Fasth and Eddie Lack in net, a clear weakness on their otherwise impressive squad. With defenders like Victor Hedman, Jonas Brodin and Oliver Ekman-Larsson in front of him, Lundqvist should help the Swedes become a medal favorite if they weren’t already. He’ll also be joining brother Joel on the team, who is captaining this group.
  • According to Paul Gackle of the Mercury News, the San Jose Sharks are getting close to new contracts with restricted free agents Joonas Donskoi and Melker Karlsson. The pair represent two of the Sharks’ biggest tasks for the offseason, along with decisions on Joe Thornton and Patrick Marleau. Donskoi and Karlsson both didn’t perform up to the lofty expectations they had after their early success in the league, with just 17 and 22 points respectively. It will be interesting to see where they both land salary wise, as the Sharks have Brent Burns’ extension kicking in along with upcoming deals for Martin Jones, Marc-Edouard Vlasic and Tomas Hertl to contend with next summer.
  • Richard Panik apparently was surprised by the Chicago Blackhawks’ first contract offer, and didn’t need to negotiate according to Mark Lazerus of the Chicago Sun-Times. That offer was the two-year, $5.6M deal he signed earlier today, which will see the team keep a 20-goal man for under $3MM. Panik knows that playing with Jonathan Toews is likely the best scenario he’ll find anywhere in the league, but that he could earn a much bigger contract in two years when he hits unrestricted free agency. He’ll hit the open market at just 28, and if he has three 40-50 point seasons under his belt people will be lining up to hand him a long-term deal.

IIHF Keeping Doors Open For NHL Olympic Participation?

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While the prospects of the NHL changing its mind and joining the 2018 Olympic Games in South Korea seem unlikely, the International Ice Hockey Federation (IIHF) says its keeping the doors open for that possibility. President Rene Fasel says that he is still attempting to broker a deal with the NHL and the International Olympic Committee (IOC), but a deal must be in place by mid-July if the NHL agrees to send players to the Winter Olympics in South Korea in 2018, according to Cam Tucker of NBC Sports.

Fasel claims any later than that will cause problems as finding hotels and accommodations for the NHL is a big task as the NHL often has a large group that comes over. He added that the NHL sent over 600-800 guests for the Vancouver Olympic Games in 2010 and then at least 400 for the Sochi Olympics in 2014.

About a month ago, the NHL told the Olympics they would not be participating, which caused many players to criticize that decision. Russian and Washington Capitals star Alex Ovechkin has threatened to defy the NHL on their decision and take part in Pyeongchang 2018. However, Tucker writes that Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman says that the NHL has no intention of changing its mind and the decision is final.

Capitals Have Four Of Top Eight Unrestricted Free Agents

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The 2017 free agency class may not be the strongest, but the Washington Capitals have the most to gain (or more likely lose) if free agency doesn’t go their way. The Capitals, currently on the ropes, down 3-1, to the Pittsburgh Penguins (Game 5 tonight), have four of the top eight unrestricted free agents, according to Matt Larkin of the Hockey News, as he posts his Top-30 unrestricted free agents this summer.

Unlike previous years, Larkin writes that this year’s class falls short of firepower, which the scribe points out is bad news for the expansion Las Vegas Golden Knights, who get a 48-hour window to negotiate with any free agents before any other teams. Regardless, it’s the Capitals who will find themselves on the clock as defenseman Kevin Shattenkirk is listed as the number one free agent on the list, while winger T.J. Oshie is third. Defenseman Karl Alzner is ranked fifth, while veteran wing Justin Williams is eighth on their list.

Larkin adds that he believes the Capitals will only be able to ink two of those players and will be forced to let two go. Shattenkirk, who was acquired in a February trade from the St. Louis Blues for their playoff run, has struggled in the playoffs this year, but is listed first due to the fact that blueliners in the prime of their careers, who can play 20 minutes a night, are always rewarded. Whether Washington can keep him at a high price tag is the tough question.

The team is likely to do everything to sign Oshie, however. The 30-year-old winger has had a breakout season with Washington on the first line with Alex Ovechkin and Niklas Backstrom. He has tallied 59 regular-season goals in the two seasons he has played for the Capitals since being acquired by trade from the Blues.

The Capitals then have to look at Alzner, a rugged blueliner who at age 28, could get a large contract in a weak year of free agent defensemen, while Williams playoff success could make him a well-paid second-liner as well. The Capitals have to decide what priorities they have as it’s unlikely they can afford to keep all four players.

Montreal Canadiens veteran winger Alexander Radulov, who returned to the NHL last year after a long stint in the KHL, is ranked second on the list, although he has said he would like to resign with the Canadiens. Goaltender Ben Bishop is listed fourth on that free agent list and the 30-year-old netminder should be in high demand. Veterans Martin Hanzal (No. 6), Joe Thornton (No. 7), Radim Vrbata (No. 9) and Patrick Eaves (No. 10) round out the first ten on that list.

 

Morning Notes: Crosby, Ovechkin, Sabres Search

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After skating on his own yesterday, Sidney Crosby was back at Penguins’ practice today in a regular jersey and looks poised to return to the lineup tomorrow night in Washington. If he does, it would be just five days since suffering a concussion due to Matt Niskanen’s cross-check on Monday night. The idea of returning so quickly may be familiar to Penguins fans that remember Crosby’s first concussion. After being hit by David Steckel in the 2010-11 Winter Classic, Crosby would return just a few days later to face the Tampa Bay Lightning.  After another (much less violent) hit from Victor Hedman, he’d lose the rest of the season and part of the next year.

While obviously if he’s returning it means that the Pittsburgh medical staff has signed off, returning so soon is still a risk for the Penguins’ captain. His history with head injuries is getting longer and longer, and there have been many instances around the league of players coming back too soon, only to have symptoms return. Here’s hoping that Crosby is 100% ready, and not being rushed back in order to give the Penguins a better chance for the Stanley Cup.

  • The Washington Capitals will try Alex Ovechkin on the third line tomorrow, moving him down in an attempt to spread out their offense. Washington has only been able to score more than two goals once in the series, and even had trouble scoring in their first-round matchup with the Toronto Maple Leafs. Despite out-shooting their opponent consistently, the Capitals just can’t seem to find the back of the net. Putting Ovechkin with Lars Eller and Tom Wilson may seem like a desperation move, but perhaps it will spark something in the team as they fight for their playoff lives.
  • The Buffalo Sabres GM search continues, and according to Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet (via a Chris Nichols transcription on FanRag) they have asked at least one candidate if they would be comfortable with the team installing a President of Hockey Operations after taking the job. As discussed this week, many around the league believe Buffalo should follow the design of teams like the Calgary Flames, who have an experienced GM sitting behind a less-experienced man holding the position. While Buffalo tried this with Pat LaFontaine at one point, disagreements led to the dissolving of the President position and Tim Murray retaining whole control.

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