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What Is The Best Way To Build A Champion?

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At the Chicago Blackhawks convention, winger Patrick Kane was noted for saying that the Pittsburgh Penguins were the measuring stick for championship teams in the NHL. The sentiment is a fair one, after the Pens were the first team in the Cap Era to repeat and the first to go back-to-back since the ’96-97 and ’97-98 Detroit Red Wings.

Back in April, Sportsnet did a fascinating piece on how every Stanley Cup playoff participant was built and a quick glance at each team realizes that a healthy mix of good drafting, smart trades, and keen signings from the free agent pool lead to stability. Is there a metric of perfection? Hardly. The Blackhawks are saddled with huge contracts to players with a lot of miles on them. They developed well, they drafted well under Dale Tallon (Bowman has been a mixed bag), and Bowman made some shrewd trades to keep the band together. The official metric (at that time) was a mix of their roster being 40% drafted; 20% acquired through trade and another 40% picked up as free agents. Two months later, the Hawks violently shook up their roster after a stunning four-game sweep to the Nashville Predators.

So how about the Pittsburgh Penguins? The back-to-back champs clocked in at 44% drafted, 41% traded, and just 15% signed. Remember, it wasn’t too long ago that many analysts and pundits were wondering if Sidney Crosby should be dealt to rebuild, whereas ESPN’s Matthew Coller eerily wrote this:

Barring a miracle turnaround under coach Mike Sullivan, it appears the Pittsburgh Penguins’ run as an elite team is over, whether they make the playoffs this season or not. Recently fired coach Mike Johnston might be at fault for some of their struggles, but the Penguins’ big picture is clear: They have fading superstars, a broken-down prospect system and bandages covering up giant gashes in the team’s depth.

Evgeni MalkinObviously, the miracle turnaround happened and the Pens have two more Stanley Cups to show for it. This isn’t to slag Coller at all—in fact, if you can remember back to December 2015 the Penguins were playing listless hockey and appeared to truly need a reshaping. But sometimes different voices—and players—can make all the difference.

So what does it take for a franchise to win a Cup? Here are a few thoughts:

Sometimes, It Takes A Fresh Pair Of Eyes

The Penguins did just that. Ray Shero was the general manager from 2006-2014, and was fired following a bitter first round exit. Head coach Dan Bylsma followed soon after, once Jim Rutherford was hired. Rutherford’s arrival was hardly celebrated at the time, and the Penguins were bounced in five games just a year later. Rutherford then turned around and acquired Phil Kessel, booted Johnston for Sullivan in December of 2015, and snagged Trevor Daley from Chicago in a steal (Rob Scuderi, who was flipped later to Los Angeles).

Rutherford didn’t build the roster. He didn’t have a history with the franchise. Instead, he came in with a different perspective than those who were around to construct it. The one metric that advanced or conventional statistics don’t capture are the human elements that lead to winning. They’re not measurable. Statistics are important as is robust scouting. But a fresh perspective, where biases are not entrenched, go a long way. Sometimes, a front office reboot is just what the doctor ordered. Staying the course for too long can bring down a franchise. The Detroit Red Wings certainly seem to be an example of that, currently in cap hell, with contracts bloated in money, years, and no-trade clauses. Many think that Ken Holland, who’s had a dismal eight years since the Wings’ last Finals appearance, has simply been there too long to make any sizable changes. Loyalty, after all, is a powerful agent.

This isn’t to say that full-scale change is always the way to go. Patience is a virtue. But sometimes, a different look at things can go a long way.

Draft Well

This is the no-brainer. You can’t whiff on your top picks. The Penguins built a foundation when the ping pong ball bounced their way three times, allowing them to draft Marc-Andre Fleury, Evgeni Malkin, and Crosby in three straight drafts. From there, it’s finding the right complimentary pieces and then developing that talent through the minors. Of those 16 playoff participants examined in the Sportsnet piece, only one team didn’t have a roster that was composed of over 33% drafted players (Boston Bruins – 25%). That’s a third of the roster contributing to a playoff appearance—an obvious necessity to prolonged success.

Trading Is Risk/Reward Based On Who’s Pulling The Trigger

Trades certainly put the Penguins over the top but they don’t always work out. Just ask George McPhee and David Poile about that Filip Forsberg deal. But it goes without saying that teams can’t be afraid to make a deal here and there. Poile is proof positive of that. He swung the trade that netted P.K. Subban, and has swindled other teams to acquire both core and supplemental talent. Trading can’t be relied upon solely to build a winner, but adding the right pieces at opportune times can be the difference between a deep playoff run and just missing the playoffs.

Free agency, especially in the salary cap era, has become akin to navigating a field full of land mines. Long terms and big dollars are spent on players and only seasons later, buyouts used to purge the mistake. There are certainly cases of it working well, but it seems like it’s best to tread lightly during the free agent signing period.

There will never be a perfect science to building a team. Sometimes it’s just a little luck that propels a team on the bubble to a Stanley Cup Final appearance or even just qualifying for the playoffs. Regardless, it’s interesting to note that as the Penguins head into a season trying to capture a third consecutive Cup, smart drafting, trading and a fresh perspective can go a long way in winning.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Dead Space: Bought-Out, Buried, And Retained Salaries For Every Team

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It’s something that often goes unnoticed, but with the cap showing minimal growth the last few years, teams are starting to feel the crunch more than ever. Buyouts have become more common, especially with players with under three remaining years on their contracts. And it’s not just the big name busts that have seen the ax lately – we’ve seen lesser names at lesser money take the fall for their respective teams, then needing to scramble for work elsewhere in the league. Additionally, salary retention in trades has become a more utilized tactic as of late. Teams with “unmovable” contracts have offered to retain part of a poor contract in order to entice a team into giving them some relief.

All this said, some teams have been better with foresight than others. Some teams have shown a track record of being entirely unable of handing out poor contracts over the past five or so seasons. Considering many teams showed some progress in being more frugal this off-season, it seems a wise time to review the dead space every team has accumulated, either due to poor management decisions or poor luck.

Colorado Avalanche – $4.83 MM in 2017-18, issues resolved after current year – Francois Beauchemin buyout; Cody McLeod retained

Arizona Coyotes – $4.61 MM in 2017-18, issues resolved after 2020-21 – Mike Smith retained; Mike Ribeiro, Antoine Vermette buyouts

Columbus Blue Jackets – $4.025 MM in 2017-18, issues resolved after 2020-21 – Fedor Tyutin, Jared Boll, Scott Hartnell buyouts

Carolina Hurricanes – $3.71 MM in 2017-18, issues resolved after 2020-21 – Eddie Lack retained; Alexander Semin, James Wisniewski buyouts

Toronto Maple Leafs – $3.28 MM in 2017-18, issues resolved after 2021-22 – Tim Gleason, Jared Cowen buyouts; Phil Kessel retained

Nashville Predators – $2.83 MM in 2017-18, issues resolved after 2018-19 – Viktor Stalberg, Eric Nystrom, Barret Jackman buyouts

Boston Bruins – $2.73 MM in 2017-18, issues resolved 2019-20 – Dennis Seidenberg, Jimmy Hayes buyouts

New York Rangers – $2.61 MM in 2017-18, issues resolved after 2022-23 – Dan Girardi buyout

Minnesota Wild – $2.5 MM in 2017-17, issues resolved after current year – Thomas Vanek buyout

Los Angeles Kings – $2.4 MM in 2017-18, issues resolved after 2023-24 – Matt Greene buyout; Mike Richards termination/recapture

Edmonton Oilers – $2.33 MM in 2017-18, issues resolved after 2020-21 – Lauri Korpikoski, Benoit Pouliot buyouts

Anaheim Ducks – $2.21 MM in 2017-18, issues resolved after 2023-24 – Mark Fistric, Simon Despres buyouts; Patrick Maroon retained

Vancouver Canucks – $2.13 MM in 2017-18, issues resolved after 2021-22 – Roberto Luongo, Jannik Hansen retained; Chris Higgins buyout

New Jersey Devils – $2.09 MM in 2017-18, issues resolved after 2023-24 – Mike Cammalleri, Devante Smith-Pelly buyouts; Ilya Kovalchuk recapture

Tampa Bay Lightning – $1.83 MM in 2017-18, issues resolved after 2019-20 – Matt Carle buyout

Calgary Flames – $1.82 MM in 2017-18, issues resolved after 2018-19 – Mason Raymond, Lance Bouma, Ryan Murphy buyouts

Detroit Red Wings – $1.67 MM in 2017-18, issues resolved after 2020-21 – Stephen Weiss buyout

Dallas Stars – $1.5 MM in 2017-18, issues resolved after 2018-19- Antti Niemi buyout

Philadelphia Flyers – $1.5 MM in 2017-18, issues resolved after current year – R.J. Umberger buyout

Winnipeg Jets – $1.46 MM in 2017-18, issues resolved after 2018-19 – Mark Stuart buyout

Florida Panthers – $1.33 MM in 2017-18, issues resolved after 2018-19 – Jussi Jokinen buyout

Las Vegas Golden Knights – $1.1 MM in 2017-18, issues resolved after current year – Alexei Emelin retained

Ottawa Senators – $350,000 in 2017-18, issues resolved after current year – Andrew Hammond buried

Buffalo Sabres – Minimal in 2017-18, increased issues ($791,00) resolved after 2022-23 – Cody Hodgson buyout

 

 

Chicago Blackhawks, St. Louis Blues, Washington Capitals, Pittsburgh Penguins, New York Islanders, San Jose Sharks,  Montreal Canadiens – No dead cap space

After compiling the list, it became clear that utilizing these options isn’t a complete hindrance to competing in the NHL. In fact, most clubs have between $1 MM and $3 MM in dead space. That said, of the teams that have not needed to utilize the buyout or retention options, there has been a great deal of success. And among the five worst offenders, the Leafs, Hurricanes, Blue Jackets, Avalanche, and Coyotes, none has moved past the first-round in multiple years. It’s hard to draw massive conclusions without taking the context of each individual situation into account, but there is something to be said for making every dollar of cap space count. Perhaps this is merely a byproduct of past success rather than an indicator of future success, but considering how amenable many managers have become to the option, it bears consideration.

(All totals courtesy of the fantastic CapFriendly.com)

Free Agent Profile: Johnny Oduya

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Johnny Oduya is a name that has fallen off most hockey fanatics’ radar this off-season, and perhaps there is good reason for that. Oduya is 35 years old and came off a brutal playoff performance in their sweep against Nashville. The league is certainly trending in the “what have you done for me lately” direction, so no one should be entirely shocked that he remains unclaimed this deep into July.

That said, it’s still conceivable that he has a bounce back year. For a bargain bin price, he’s worth taking a shot on. Although his dreadful 2016-17 outing had him finish with only 9 points and an uninspiring 46.8% Corsi For, he’d been above the 50% mark the prior 5 seasons. He can lo longer handle a ton of minutes, and he will need sheltering from top competition, as many bottom-pairing defensemen do. He only averaged 18:16 of ice-time through the year, but considering that 59.3% of his zone starts were in the defensive end, he managed to hold his own. As a veteran 6th or 7th defenseman, he may still have something to offer.

Potential Suitors

The Blackhawks are seemingly always looking to re-unite with names from their past glories, but the fit may not be one Stan Bowman is willing to try again. He looked sluggish and out of sorts, and got blown by on numerous occasion by the depth players of Nashville. That said, the team will likely need at least another defenseman on the roster, so it’s not impossible. But with Duncan Keith (34), Brent Seabrook (32), and Michal Rozsival (38) already making up half the defense, do they really want to get older still?

Oduya hasn’t been definitively linked to practically anyone. It’s quite possible he’s holding on to see what opens up as teams enter training camp. Teams like the Washington Capitals, Philadelphia Flyers, and Los Angeles Kings could use another 6/7, and would be on the hunt for a bargain. The New Jersey Devils of course completely lacking on the back-end, and might want a mentor for 22 year olds Mirco Mueller, Damon Severson, and Michael Kapla. In truth, a good 50% of the league that could afford to take a chance on him for a single season, but the question remains, who will?

Ultimately, we aren’t likely to hear much chatter on this front until the arbitration period has passed. Teams want to have their organizational contracts set in stone before offering a contract to what will ultimately amount to a stop-gap defender solution.

Projected Contract

Last month, we projected a one-year, $2.5MM deal for Oduya back with Chicago, but they certainly no longer have him in their plans. We had him ranked at a respectable 32nd in a weak UFA class, but even that may have been overestimating his remaining value around the league. Oduya will likely have to settle for a one-year deal to prove he still “has it”, and the monetary value of that contract will be far less. He could always decide to play in Europe, but at the bare minimum he’ll attract at PTO, much like Cody Franson. If he does sign before the end of summer, it will likely be for under $1 MM, quite the paycut from his 2016-17 AAV of $3.75 MM.

Saad Excited For Reunion With Toews; Hossa Loss "Heartbreaking"

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  • Sports Illustrated ran an interesting piece highlighting the Blackhawks’ strategy of re-acquiring old players. Brandon Saad in particular sounds thrilled to be back in Chicago with Coach Joel Quenneville. Saad had two 53-point seasons in Columbus, but at only 24, he still has room to improve. It sounds like the plan is to re-unite him with captain Jonathan Toews, to try to spark the captain with a familiar linemate. Toews ended the season with a respectable 21 goals and 58 points, but struggled mightily to score for long stretches of time before a stellar home stretch. Saad will have big shoes to fill to replace the incredibly dynamic Artemi Panarin, however, and Patrick Kane’s line will likely see a huge hit in production in order to achieve greater balance in the lineup.
  • After the announcement that Marian Hossa is indefinitely sidelined due to a degenerate skin disorder, Blackhawks players unsurprisingly see the situation as “heartbreaking”. Hossa will not skate in 2017-18 due his medical need to discontinue NHL play. Hossa has a solid case for the Hall of Fame when he decides to retire, and being an important part of three Cup-winning teams, his loss is hard to calculate prior to the start of the season. Saad’s return may help fill some of that void, especially with Toews, but his production still will be near impossible to replace internally. More than that, however, he was arguably Blackhawks’ best defensive forward, backchecking consistently and with purpose. It will be interesting to see how the stretched-thin defense, minus Niklas Hjalmarsson, copes with one less Selke-caliber forward assisting their efforts.

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Blackhawks Notes: Sharp, Saad, DeBrincat

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The Chicago Sun-Times’ Mark Lazerus (along with various Chicago media) tweeted quite a bit from the beginning of the Blackhawks Fan Convention as players and personnel were available to the media. It was a reunion of sorts as two former players returned to field questions. Patrick Sharp returns to the place where he saw much success, saying that he had some of his “best years” playing for Joel Quenneville in Chicago. Lazerus tweets that Quenneville could use Sharp with Jonathan Toews, and to expect the veteran winger to see top six minutes, which may not thrill some fans.  Brandon Saad confirmed that he would be on a line with Toews, which was the belief of many after Stan Bowman swung a deal to re-acquire the forward. The Athletic’s Scott Powers tweeted video of different interviews which included Quenneville, Patrick Kane talking about the Panarin trade, and Sharp’s return to Chicago.

  • Several hockey analysts are “tapping the brakes” when declaring Blackhawks prospect Alex DeBrincat as the next big thing. The Hockey News’ Jared Clinton and Chicago SportsNet’s Tracey Myers both covered this, with Clinton adding onto Myers’ analysis.  First, the salary cap limits who the Hawks can add to the roster, and the only player as of now who can shuffle to the AHL without passing through waivers is Nick Schmaltz. Should Marian Hossa go onto the LTIR, more than enough money would be available for many in Rockford to go onto the roster. Second, head coach Joel Quenneville isn’t exactly one to hand out ice time to kids. Clinton notes that DeBrincat is only 19, and the only players under 21 to see significant ice time during Quenneville’s tenure were Kane and Toews. Of course, Clinton notes, Toews was the captain and Kane was a budding superstar. Further, Clinton writes that Schmaltz, considered one of Chicago’s best prospects, struggled to stay in the lineup last season, showing that cracking the NHL lineup and then staying on it is far more difficult than it appears. Realistically, Clinton believes that the Hawks have the luxury to “over-season” players and allow them time to grow into a role–something that DeBrincat may very well do.

Tommy Wingels Breaks Foot, Out 6-8 Weeks

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  • The Blackhawks got some bad news today, as Tommy Wingels suffered a broken foot during his offseason training and will miss 6-8 weeks of the offseason. He is still expected to be ready for training camp, though missing two months of his offseason is never a good thing. Wingels was brought in on a one-year deal by the Blackhawks this summer to help fill out their bottom six with affordable veterans, after a season in which he produced just 12 points. It’s been a steep fall from his career-high of 38 in 2013-14, and he is best suited to a fourth line role at this point.

Alexandre Fortin Recovering From Abdominal Surgery

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  • Chicago Blackhawks prospect Alexandre Fortin is three weeks removed from sports hernia surgery according to Scott Powers of The Athletic, but is expected to be ready for the start of training camp in September. Fortin was invited to the Hawks’ development camp last summer and earned himself an entry-level contract despite having been passed over in multiple drafts. Now 20, Fortin has an outside chance at even making the Chicago roster out of camp if he shows up and impresses as much as he did last year. More likely he’ll head to the AHL and keep developing, waiting for a chance with the NHL roster.

Brian Campbell Announces Retirement

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Though some around the league were hoping he could be a late addition to their defense corps, veteran Brian Campbell has decided to call it quits. The 38-year old defenseman has announced his retirement, ending a 17-year NHL career. He will join the Chicago Blackhawks’ front office staff in a business operations role. Brian Campbell

It all started for Campbell in 1997 when he was selected by Buffalo in the sixth round, 156th-overall. An undersized skater from Strathroy, Ontario, he’d yet to put up the outstanding numbers for the Ottawa 67’s that showed the world he could succeed as an elite puck-moving defender. In his final year of junior, he scored 87 points in 62 games and was poised for success in the professional ranks. After a couple of years bouncing up and down between the Sabres and Rochester Americans of the AHL, he joined the NHL squad full-time and never looked back.

In 1,082 games, Campbell scored 504 points and was a possession superhero on the ice. His uncanny ability to retrieve pucks and immediately find a way out of the zone, through his own excellent skating ability or an incredibly accurate first pass quickly moved him up depth charts and eventually earned him an eight-year, $57MM contract from the Blackhawks. Though he’d spend many of those years in Florida, his impact on Chicago was clear as he won a Stanley Cup with the team in 2010 and would return to play his final year there in 2016-17.

Still effective, the Blackhawks have clearly decided to go in a different direction and Campbell will instead join them in a marketing role instead. His impact on the Chicago community and all across the country (and even the world) has been immeasurable, as his charity Campbell for Kids has raised well over $1.5MM for children with disabilities and special needs. He and the foundation were regular donors to Chicago children’s charity groups, something he will likely continues as he moves into a different role with the team.

One of the best late round picks to play in the league over the past few decades, Campbell will go down as an excellent if not elite defenseman in the league. His fifth-place Norris finish in 2008 was the closest he came to the trophy, though he did win a Lady Byng award for sportsmanship in 2011.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Could DeBrincat Be The Next Blackhawk Star?

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The Chicago Sun-Times’ Mark Lazerus updates Blackhawks fans on prospect Alex DeBrincat in the midst of a changing Blackhawks roster. Gone is Artemi Panarin, but waiting in the wings is DeBrincat, who scorched the OHL last season as a member of the Erie Otters. Though Lazerus points out his 5’7 stature as possibly hindering his abilities in the NHL, Lazerus is just as quick to write that DeBrincat has been working with Blackhawks strength coach Paul Goodman to bulk up for the bruising NHL. The 19-year-old has the attention of fans, which Lazarus writes puts “outsized expectations” onto his shoulders. Such expectations don’t seem to faze DeBrincat, whose goal is to “make the team” and work at “his own pace” to to match his own expectations for making the Hawks’ roster. One thing is for certain: all eyes will be on him once the exhibition season begins, to see if his torrid goal scoring find its way to the Hawks.

Minor Moves: Gravel, Gibson, Gustafsson

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The Los Angeles Kings have come to an agreement with another one of their restricted free agents, signing Kevin Gravel to a one-year two-way contract worth $650K. Interestingly, Gravel had elected arbitration and was scheduled for a hearing on August 2nd, but instead took the league minimum on a one-year deal. The team did not release the guaranteed or AHL salary, likely part of why he settled.

Gravel played 49 games for the Kings last season in his first extended look with the team, registering seven points in just over 14 minutes a night. With the departure of Brayden McNabb to the Vegas Golden Knights, Gravel will likely be asked to play a bigger role and could even find himself in a full-time gig. He is still waivers exempt however, giving the team options if they think someone else is a better option on the bottom pairing.

  • The New York Islanders have signed goaltender Christopher Gibson to a one-year two-way deal, bringing him back to battle with new acquisition Kristers Gudlevskis for an AHL role. In just seven games last season Gibson recorded a .912 save percentage but hasn’t been able to show the potential that made him a second-round pick in 2011. Just 24 he’s still developing as a netminder, but will have to make big strides soon if he wants to make an impact at the NHL level.
  • The Chicago Blackhawks have re-signed Erik Gustafsson to a one-year deal, a contract that will send him to unrestricted free agency next summer should he not get into 39 games in the NHL this year. After playing 41 contests in 2015-16 with the Blackhawks and recording a solid 14 points, Gustafsson spent the entire season in the AHL in 2016-17. While he again showed off his offensive upside while there, scoring 30 points in 68 games, it was a disappointing year for him to not make it back to the NHL. Now with Niklas Hjalmarsson in Arizona and Brian Campbell still unsigned, there could be an opportunity for him to step up and fill a full-time role. With depth options like Michal Rozsival not being an ideal option on a full-time basis, the Blackhawks could look to newcomer Jan Rutta along with Gustafsson and Ville Pokka as potential options.

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