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Trade Deadline Primer: Edmonton Oilers

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Although we’re just two months into the season, the trade deadline is already less than a month away.  Where does each team stand and what moves should they be looking to make?  We continue our look around the league with the Edmonton Oilers.

Perhaps the biggest obstacle standing between the Edmonton Oilers and their longest playoff run in the Connor McDavid/Leon Draisaitl era is not their North Division competition, but their lack of cap space. The Oilers are ready to be all-out buyers and compete for a Stanley Cup, but they lack the cap space to do much at all. They are already using Long Term Injured Reserve space and even most of that is already chewed up. Any trade will either have to see salary go the other way or be paired with another transaction to shed salary.

The Oilers have been bold in their waivers decisions this year, placing the likes of James Neal, Alex Chiasson, and Jujhar Khaira among others on the wire. Neal will require waivers again after two more games played, but is not a realistic waiver claim candidate anyhow. Plus, Neal’s off-roster status is currently reflected in their still-lacking cap space. Chiasson and Khaira though would require waivers again to be moved off the roster and there is reason to be believe that the Oilers may not risk it a second time. Could Zack Kassian be the next name they take a chance with? Signed to a long-term contract with a significant amount of salary, Kassian is probably unlikely to be claimed and could open up some space. He appears to have lost his top-six role and may be worth the risk.

The fact that a contender must consider risking their starting players on waivers to open up enough space to add different starting players just shows the dire cap situation in Edmonton. Add in the team’s lack of 2021 draft picks and an organizational philosophy that has been opposed to trading top prospects and it may be difficult for the Oilers to make a big move. With that said, they will find a way to make some sort of addition or two.

Record

20-13-0, .606, 3rd in North Division

Deadline Status

Buyer

Deadline Cap Space

$0MM in full-season space (LTIR), 1/3 retention slots used, 48/50 contracts used per CapFriendly

Upcoming Draft Picks

2021: EDM 1st, EDM 4th, EDM 6th, PIT 6th, EDM 7th
2022: EDM 1st, EDM 2nd, EDM 3rd, EDM 4th, EDM 5th, EDM 6th, EDM 7th

Trade Chips

The Oilers’ best chance at adding an impact forward to their roster is by moving out salary to offset the addition. Although the Edmonton blue line may not seem like a top unit in the NHL, they are very deep which could make a roster defenseman expendable. Especially considering the impending Expansion Draft, which could cost the Oilers a young roster defenseman anyhow, there is some added incentive to deal from the blue line. 23-year-old Ethan Bear, who was trending upward heading into this season, has hit a wall in his development instead, recording just three points thus far, seeing a career low in ice time, and even sitting a few games as a healthy scratch. Bear still undoubtedly has value and could be the Oilers’ top trade chip, if they’re willing to move him. Competing for the No. 6 defenseman role for Edmonton this year has been William Lagesson, 25, and Caleb Jones, 23, who like Bear will each be restricted free agents after the 2021-22 season and are eligible for selection in the Expansion Draft. While Jones may have more upside, Lagesson has been the preferred player of the coaching staff due to his superior defense, even recently playing a top-four role. Jones’ contract is also slightly more expensive, which could be considered. Assuming the Oilers use the 7-3 protection scheme in the Expansion Draft and Darnell Nurse and Oscar Klefbom (though not a lock) are protected, only one of these three young defensemen can join them. However, only one can be selected as well. That works out to one of the trio being expendable in a deadline move, especially with top prospects like Evan Bouchard and Philip Broberg pushing up the pipeline as well.

The Oilers don’t have the same depth up front, but as previously mentioned have been willing to take risks on waivers this season to gain cap flexibility. If they feel Chiasson or Kassian are unlikely to clear waivers, they could shop either one to open up space or potentially in a swap. They could also look at moving some of their fringe forward to teams with a greater need for depth beyond their starting group.

Either as a sweetener to move another contract or as part of a return if they’re able to open up cap space, the Oilers will also have to consider moving some of their prospects. Tyler Benson, who has been more talk than walk as a pro prospect for Edmonton, may need a change of scenery after years of being unable to earn a full-time role with the NHL club. Cooper Marody, tearing up the AHL this year and having earned some NHL experience last year, could also be an attractive name. While Bouchard, Broberg, and Dylan Holloway are likely untouchable, would Edmonton consider moving other top prospects like Raphael Lavoie, Ryan McLeod, or Matej Blumel? Would they dip into their deep group of young goaltenders, such as Stuart Skinner, Dylan Wells, Olivier Rodrigue, or Ilya Konovalov?

Others to Watch For: D Dmitri Samorukov ($825K, 2022 RFA), D Markus Niemelainen ($817.5K, 2022 RFA), F Gaetan Haas ($915K, UFA), F Patrick Russell ($700K, UFA)

Team Needs

1) Affordable Top-Six Forward – It may seem strange for the Oilers’ biggest need to be at forward. Edmonton is a top-ten team in goals per game, shots per game, and power play efficiency – arguably a top-five offense in hockey. Yet, that offensive production is heavily skewed towards just two players: McDavid and Draisaitl. A quick look at the depth chart also clearly shows that the team lacks quality top-six wingers, with players who should be above-average bottom-six players instead slotted as below-average top-six forwards. McDavid and Draisaitl deserve to have more talent around them, a need that has plagued the Oilers for years. Additionally, Edmonton faces a path to the NHL’s final four this season that goes through Winnipeg, a team with defensive issues, and Toronto, a team with goaltending issues. In a battle of three elite offenses, the North Division is likely to go to the team that can simply outscore the others. Right now, that isn’t Edmonton, but it wouldn’t take much to shift the scales.

The caveat of course is that without some cap gymnastics, the Oilers cannot be players for any of the high-priced forwards on the rental market (or any market for that matter). The focus must be on bargain buys, adding players who can produce at a high level while being paid at a low level. Among rentals, Bobby Ryan, Erik Haula, Carl Soderberg, or old friend Sam Gagner (yet again) could all fit the bill. Among players with an additional year of term, possibly more attractive anyway, Vladislav Namestnikov, Calle Jarnkrok, Rocco Grimaldi, Curtis Lazar, and Colin Blackwell are all intriguing options. If available, L.A.’s Alex Iafallo is likely the very best value addition.

2) Depth Forward – On the off chance that Edmonton has the cap space and a contract slot left, they could make another move and it should again be up front. Depth is key in the postseason and the Oilers simply don’t have it at forward. They could stand to add some playoff experience, defensive ability, and if possible top-six upside in an established veteran forward. While goaltending continues to be a major long-term need of the Oilers, solving that problem in-season given all of the factors working against such deal make it extremely unlikely.

Oilers’ James Neal Clears Waivers

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Sunday: As expected, Neal has cleared waivers and can now be assigned to the Oilers’ taxi squad. His $5.75MM cap hit will be reduced to $4.675MM once the move is completed. Edmonton has waived a number of forwards this season who have made their way back to the active roster eventually, as will likely be the case for Neal.

Saturday: It hasn’t been a great season for James Neal and the news got a little tougher for him today as the team announced (Twitter link) that he has been placed on waivers.

The 33-year-old has been a healthy scratch several times already this season and is off to a quiet start with just two goals and an assist in nine games.  Both goals came in the same game and he was out of the lineup for a week after that. With his lineup spot being far from guaranteed, there’s little risk in putting him on the waiver wire.

Neal has failed to live up to the five-year, $28.75MM contract he signed with Calgary back in 2018 and while he had a bit of a bounce-back 19-goal season with Edmonton last year after being acquired for another free agent mistake in Milan Lucic, he still hasn’t come close to being worth his $5.75MM price tag.  With two years left on his deal after this one, it’s a safe bet he will go through unclaimed.

With Edmonton deep into using LTIR, they’re not going to be in a position to free up some cap space by sending Neal to the taxi squad or to AHL Bakersfield.  Instead, what this move does is just give them a bit of extra roster flexibility to be able to shuffle veterans to and from the taxi squad with ease.  They’ve already gone this route with Devin Shore, Tyler Ennis, and Alex Chiasson this season and now Neal will join the group once he goes unclaimed on Sunday.

Taxi Squad Shuffle: 01/22/21

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It appears as though there will be daily movement this season between the active roster and taxi squad. Although some major names may be highlighted in separate articles, this is where you’ll find the majority of shuffle news each day.

  • With no other real options, the Pittsburgh Penguins have recalled Pierre-Olivier Joseph from their taxi squad under emergency conditions. The young defenseman is expected to make his NHL debut tonight against the  New York Rangers. Joseph, 21, was the 23rd overall pick in 2017 and recorded 17 points in 52 games for the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins last season.
  • The Columbus Blue Jackets have elevated Nathan Gerbe from the taxi squad, moving Emil Bemstrom down in his place. The 33-year-old Gerbe hasn’t played yet this season but recorded ten points in 30 games last year for the club.
  • After clearing waivers, Brandon Pirri was re-assigned to the Chicago Blackhawks taxi squad. Carl Soderberg and Brandon Hagel have both been moved to the active roster. Soderberg, 35, has yet to play this season and is expected to make his debut tonight against the Detroit Red Wings.
  • The Washington Capitals have recalled Brian Pinho from the taxi squad as they try to fill out a roster card without their four Russian stars. Pinho, 25, scored 20 goals and 37 points in 62 games for the Hershey Bears last season and made his NHL debut in the postseason bubble.
  • Givani Smith has been recalled from the Red Wings taxi squad, giving them another forward option as more players find themselves on the COVID list. The Red Wings start a two-game series with the Blackhawks tonight with a chance to climb even further up the Central Division table.  Taro Hirose was also brought up to the taxi squad.
  • The Edmonton Oilers have activated James Neal off injured reserve, meaning someone needed to go to the taxi squad. That someone is Joakim Nygard, who has been moved off the active roster. Olivier Rodrigue, who had been serving as the taxi squad goaltender, has also swapped places with Dylan Wells. Rodrigue will report to the AHL while Wells is now the third-string option for Edmonton.
  • Samuel Morin has been moved back to the taxi squad as the Philadelphia Flyers wait for their next game. Morin, who is making the switch from defense to forward this season, has yet to get into a game.
  • Brogan Rafferty has been moved to the taxi squad by the Vancouver Canucks, as they continue to try and work out their defensive issues. Rafferty had been up on emergency loan while the Canucks dealt with several injuries, but is now back down on the team’s day off.
  • Victor Soderstrom is expected to make his NHL debut tonight after being recalled from the taxi squad by the Arizona Coyotes. The team has moved Jordan Gross down for the time being, allowing their young phenom to get into a game. Soderstrom, 19, was the 11th overall pick in 2019 and quickly became one of the top defensive prospects in the entire league.  Aaron Ness was sent to the minors while Ivan Prosvetov was added to the taxi squad.
  • The Los Angeles Kings have assigned both Lias Andersson and Jaret Anderson-Dolan to the taxi squad while the team prepares for a four-game road trip that takes them to St. Louis tomorrow. The Kings are coming off their first win of the season and looking to continue to hold their own in a tough West Division.
  • The Nashville Predators have recalled Mathieu Olivier from the taxi squad while also activating Mikael Granlund to the active roster after he completed his quarantine protocols.  Olivier leads the Preds in hits in the early going this season with eight while Granlund will make his season debut.
  • Anaheim has made a long list of moves, per CapFriendly.  The Ducks have recalled David Backes, Max Jones, and Josh Mahura to the NHL roster while Anthony Stolarz and Isac Lundestrom are now on the taxi squad.  Sonny Milano has been placed on IR while Lukas Dostal has been sent to AHL San Diego.
  • The Boston Bruins have shuffled Trent Frederic and Jack Studnicka back to the taxi squad, per CapFriendly.  The two have been shuffled multiple times already this season to bank cap room and will likely be recalled for tomorrow’s game against Philadelphia.
  • Colorado has recalled Martin Kaut on an emergency basis, per CapFriendly.  Conor Timmins was sent back to the taxi squad in a corresponding move.  Erik Johnson isn’t expected to play tonight and Kaut’s addition will allow the Avalanche to dress 12 forwards and six defensemen.
  • The Islanders have shuffled Kieffer Bellows back to the taxi squad, per CapFriendly.  The winger has played in all four games this season but with them off until Sunday, New York can save nearly $15K in salary by sending him back for two days.
  • The Tampa Bay Lightning have flipped defensemen again as Andreas Borgman has been recalled with Luke Schenn going to the taxi squad, per CapFriendly.  While they’re so deep into LTIR where the small cap savings will be irrelevant, doing so extends Schenn’s waiver exemption a little longer.
  • Vegas has recalled Cody Glass from the taxi squad, notes David Schoen of the Las Vegas Review-Journal.  Nicolas Hague has been sent back down to the taxi squad, meaning the Golden Knights will go back to dressing 13 forwards and just five defensemen.

This page will be updated throughout the day as more moves are officially announced. 

COVID Protocol Related Absences: 01/13/21

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As reported earlier, beginning today, and each day for the remainder of the 2020-21 season, the NHL will be sharing the names of players who are “unavailable” to play or practice due to any number of factors that place them under the league’s COVID-19 Protocol. Here is the list of players for today, Wednesday, January 13:

F Lawson Crouse, Arizona Coyotes
F Karson Kuhlman, Boston Bruins
D Erik Johnson, Colorado Avalanche
F Mikko Koivu, Columbus Blue Jackets
D Christian Djoos, Detroit Red Wings
F Darren Helm, Detroit Red Wings
F Gaetan Haas, Edmonton Oilers
F James Neal, Edmonton Oilers
D Markus Nutivaara, Florida Panthers
D Kurtis MacDermid, Los Angeles Kings
G Cal Petersen, Los Angeles Kings
D Sean Walker, Los Angeles Kings
G Alex Stalock, Minnesota Wild
F Mikael Granlund, Nashville Predators
D Luca Sbisa, Nashville Predators
F Justin Richards, New York Rangers
D Shayne Gostisbehere, Philadelphia Flyers
F Kasperi Kapanen, Pittsburgh Penguins
F Maxim Letunov, San Jose Sharks
D Jordie Benn, Vancouver Canucks
F J.T. Miller, Vancouver Canucks
F Nikolaj Ehlers, Winnipeg Jets

*NOTE: The league declined to list any specific members of the Dallas Stars at this time. The team is currently recovering from an extensive breakout.

North Notes: Oilers, Pettersson, Heinola, Kerfoot

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It appears that the Oilers will be without a pair of forwards to start the season.  Head coach Dave Tippett told reporters Friday, including Reid Wilkins of 630 CHED (Twitter link), that he doesn’t expect winger James Neal or center Gaetan Haas to be available anytime soon.  Neal is skating while Haas hasn’t started to do so.

Neal had somewhat of a bounce-back year in 2019-20, notching 19 goals in 55 games.  While that’s not great production for a $5.75MM AAV, it was still certainly a step up from his seven-goal output the year before while finishing fourth on the team in that regard.  Haas, meanwhile, spent most of last season on Edmonton’s fourth line, tallying five goals and five assists in 58 games and was going to be in a battle for one of the final spots up front had he been healthy.

Elsewhere in the North Division:

  • The Canucks have yet to engage in extension talks with Elias Pettersson, reports Rick Dhaliwal of TSN 1040 and The Athletic (Twitter link). He’s entering the final year of his entry-level deal and with two straight 66-point seasons under his belt already, he will be in line for a huge raise on his current $925K price tag (before bonuses).  Today’s agreement with Mathew Barzal, a three-year, $21MM deal that guarantees a qualifying offer of $8.4MM at its expiration, could very well be used as a comparable whenever negotiations get underway.  While Vancouver has roughly $25MM in cap room for next season, more than half of that will be eaten up by new deals for Pettersson and Quinn Hughes.
  • Last season, defenseman Ville Heinola made Winnipeg’s roster out of training camp but it appears unlikely he’ll be able to do so this season, especially since he’s in quarantine until Thursday. Jets head coach Paul Maurice acknowledged to Ted Wyman of the Winnipeg Sun that he’s unsure of what the plans will be for the 19-year-old.  It looks like the team could enter the season with eight blueliners on the active roster which would make it difficult for Heinola to earn a spot and it may not be ideal for him to hang around on the taxi squad either although Maurice stated that keeping him up with that group is being considered.
  • Although he has resumed skating, Maple Leafs head coach Sheldon Keefe noted that Alexander Kerfoot’s availability for Wednesday’s opener against Montreal remains uncertain, relays TSN’s Kristen Shilton (Twitter link). The 26-year-old had a career-low nine goals and 19 assists in 65 games with Toronto last season and will likely reprise his role as their third-line center when he is cleared to return.

NHL Makes Rulings On Three Trades With Conditional Picks

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For fans of the Flames and Oilers that have been awaiting the final decision on the James Neal–Milan Lucic trade, the verdict is in.  Sportsnet’s Chris Johnston reports (Twitter link) that Edmonton will have to transfer a third-round pick in either 2020 or 2021 to Calgary to complete the trade.  The Oilers will have until the start of the third round in October’s draft to choose whether they will transfer the selection this year or wait until the next draft.

The issue in this trade was in the wording of the rather unique conditions that were put on the deal.  In the original swap, Neal had to have at least 21 goals and Lucic ten or fewer.  Neal was at 19 when the season was shut down due to COVID-19 while Lucic was at eight so only the second element was met.  However, by extrapolating Neal’s output over a full 82-game season, he scored at a 23-goal pace.  It appears the league used a similar interpretation with the awarding of the draft pick.

It’s worth noting that Edmonton is currently without their second-round pick for the next two years from their acquisition of Andreas Athanasiou.  They also are without their fourth-rounder in 2020 from the Mike Green pickup.

The NHL has also tweaked the terms of the Kings-Maple Leafs trade that saw Jack Campbell and Kyle Clifford go to Toronto.  Johnston notes in a separate tweet that Toronto will owe a 2021 second-round pick if they win their Qualifying Round series against Columbus and Campbell gets two or more wins or if Clifford re-signs.  The original terms of the deal had the pick transferring if the Maple Leafs made the playoffs and Campbell winning six games or Clifford re-signing.  If those don’t happen, then a 2021 third-round pick will be transferred to Los Angeles.

A decision has also been made on the conditional pick involved in the Hurricanes’ acquisition of Sami Vatanen from the Devils at the trade deadline and as Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reports in a Twitter thread, the details are a bit more complex.

If Carolina beats New York in the Qualifying Round series and Vatanen plays in 70% or more of their playoff games, the Hurricanes send New Jersey their 2020 third-round pick.  If Vatanen doesn’t play in 70% or more of the playoff games but plays in two or more contests against the Rangers, then two more scenarios present themselves.  In that situation, if Carolina wins the series, the Devils get Carolina’s 2020 fourth-rounder.  If he plays at least twice but the Rangers win, then Carolina gets to pick between sending a 2020 or a 2021 fourth-round selection.  If none of this plays out, then no pick transfers.

This closes the books on the remaining questions surrounding conditional trades with the league ruling back in May on ones that had picks contingent on making the playoffs.  Teams will have to be in the final 16 teams in order to be classified as a playoff team for the purpose of those trades.

Snapshots: Amnesty, Lucic, Game Audio, Hajek

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Despite the hopes and dreams of fans around the NHL, the agreed-upon return-to-play conditions and extended CBA is not likely to include any kind of amnesty clause, per TSN’s Bob McKenzie. The assumption that the salary cap will hold at $81.5MM for the next two seasons gave rise to some speculation that the stagnant cap would be augmented by an amnesty provision, but it appears teams will be stuck with the contracts they’ve got on the books. For the Calgary Flames, that means Milan Lucic, writes Todd Cordell of Hockey Buzz. Lucic has three more years on his deal worth $5.25MM per season. The 32-year-old Lucic hardly set the world on fire in his first season in Calgary, notching just 20 points (8 goals, 12 assists) across 68 games. The Flames acquired Lucic and a conditional 3rd round pick for winger James Neal after one disappointing season in Calgary produced just seven goals. The money owed Lucic isn’t exorbitant, but it’s not an ideal price tag for an aging winger entering his mid-thirties. Lucic still played a role on the Flames’ third line, but his days as a 40-60 point scorer appear behind him. Additionally, it’s unclear right now if the Flames will actually receive the third-round pick. To get the pick in this year’s draft, Neal had to score at least 21 goals and record 10 more goals than Lucic. The second condition was qualified, but Neal scored just 19 goals – in a shortened season. Common sense would look at those numbers and say Neal was going to qualify both conditions, but it’s not entirely clear.

  • When the NHL returns to television, the game may look the same – except for the leagues of empty seats in the background – but the audio experience may provide an even more jarring change, per Kevin McGran of The Star. Without access to players, the play-by-play commentators are likely to call games from a studio instead of the arena, and in terms of sideline reporting, well, there won’t be any. Studios are still working on the best way to pump in ambient sound, whether that’s highlighting sounds from the ice or using some kind of fan track. The most entertaining option would almost certainly be to mic the players, but that would require players to curb their vulgarity, which, in the heat of the moment, might be too great an ask.
  • Libor Hajek of the New York Rangers has hired Octagon as his representation, tweets agent Allan Walsh. The young blueliner appeared in 28 games for the Rangers this season, recording five assists but no goals. Walsh also represents NHL players like Marc-Andre Fleury and Brock Boeser.

NHL Rules On Conditional Draft Picks

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With both the regular season and playoffs up in the air for quite some time, there had been many questions about conditional draft picks and how they might be conveyed. However, now with the establishment of a 24-team playoff format, The Athletic’s Pierre LeBrun (subscription required) reports that the league has also clarified how conditional picks will change hands, meaning teams will have to reach the round of 16 in order to be considered a ’playoff team.’ The NHL doesn’t view the qualifying round as playoff hockey.

“More specifically, for Trade condition purposes, a Club will not be deemed to have qualified for the Playoffs unless or until they have progressed into the Round of 16, and ‘Playoff Games/Rounds’ will only include the games/rounds played in the Round of 16 or later. We believe this interpretation will best reflect the intentions of the parties at the time of the Trade,” the league stipulated.

There are several trades that fall into this category with the Vancouver Canucks pick being at the heart of the issue. The Canucks traded their 2020 first-round pick to Tampa Bay for J.T. Miller, conditional on the Canucks making the playoffs. That pick, in the meantime, was traded to New Jersey for Blake Coleman. With Vancouver in the 24-team playoff format, many believed that the Devils already had the Canucks’ first-round pick. However, this ruling indicates that the Canucks would have to win their play-in game against the Minnesota Wild first and reach the round of 16 before that picks transfers. If Vancouver loses in the first round, then they keep the lottery pick and will send a unconditional first-rounder in 2021 to New Jersey.

The Pittsburgh Penguins and Minnesota Wild are in a similar situation with the first-round pick that was sent from Pittsburgh to Minnesota for Jason Zucker (assuming the Penguins got into the playoffs). However, while that pick looked to be a lock, a play-in loss to the Montreal Canadiens would allow the Penguins to keep the pick and send an unconditional one in 2021, which Pittsburgh would be likely to do if they can get a lottery pick in a strong draft.

There are still a few conditional trades that the NHL will have to look deeper into, including the Edmonton/Calgary swap of Milan Lucic and James Neal as well as the New Jersey-Carolina swap of Sami Vatanen, which deals with a conditional fourth-round pick if Vatanen played in five regular season games for Carolina, which he didn’t do. However, the play-in games could constitute regular season games, depending on how the league rules on it.

Potential Compliance Buyout Candidates: Part II

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As the current Coronavirus crisis wears on, it seems more and more likely that the NHL will not return to action soon and when play resumes, it will almost certainly not be the full remaining regular season schedule. That lost revenue is expected to impact the 2020-21 salary cap, perhaps even keeping the current $81.5MM upper limit in place. Given that teams expected an increase, initially projected to be between $84-88.2MM, this stagnation could have a harsh impact on a number of clubs’ cap situations. As such, many expect that compliance buyouts will return in some form or fashion to ease that pain. These buyouts, which do not count against the salary cap, would allow for teams to open up space that they otherwise expected from a cap increase.

After taking a look at the first ten teams, we move on to the middle third of the NHL:

Detroit Red Wings: Justin Abdelkader

– When Abdelkader signed a seven-year extension with an AAV of $4.25MM following his career-best season in 2014-15, it was perceived to be a bargain at the time and few expected that it would turn out poorly. Yet, with three years still to go Abdelkader has failed to impress in each of the first four seasons, recording a total of just 78 points and consistently missing time due to injury. On a young rebuilding team, the 33-year-old forward’s slow, plodding game is not a fit and his salary is not commensurate to his role on the club. New GM Steve Yzerman wouldn’t hesitate to buy out the career Red Wing if given the opportunity.

Edmonton Oilers: James Neal

– Last summer’s swap of Neal for Milan Lucic was labeled as two teams exchanging bad contracts. However, Neal got off to a hot start and ended up with 19 goals and 31 points despite being limited to just 55 games due to injury. That being said, the 32-year-old forward, who was a -20 this season, is still probably the worst contract on the team. The likelihood of Neal playing up to his remaining $17.25MM over three years seems slim and the Oilers could use the cap space to add a younger, better winger. If Neal has earned the trust of the team, Kris Russell could be bought out before his final year at $4MM.

Florida Panthers: Sergei Bobrovsky

– Would the Panthers move on from Bobrovsky just one year after handing him a seven-year, $70MM deal? That could be the biggest question of the off-season if compliance buyouts become reality. The star goalie’s first season in Florida could not have gone worse as he posted a career-worst GAA and didn’t boast a shiny save percentage either. Expected to be the Cats’ savior in net, Bobrovsky was anything but. If they hesitate to cut ties with Bobrovsky and his play does not improve, he would undoubtedly become the worst contract in hockey. Though on the other hand, if Bobrovsky goes elsewhere and succeeds and Florida cannot find a suitable location, some would surely say that they didn’t give him enough of a chance.

Los Angeles Kings: Jonathan Quick

– The rebuilding Kings have been trying to move Quick for a couple of years now and it would be a surprise if they did not take advantage of a compliance buyout opportunity. A holdover contract from the days of yore, Quick’s ten-year, $58MM deal signed in 2012 remained a bargain for the first half of the term until Quick hit a wall last year. While his play rebounded this season, Quick is still not playing up to the all-world level that had become the norm. L.A. is still a ways away from contending and can make more use of extra cap space over the next three years than a goalie who is past his prime.

Minnesota Wild: Zach Parise

– The Wild and new GM Bill Guerin came awfully close to trading Parise at the deadline this season and in recent years players who have been rumored to be leaving Minnesota are always eventually dealt. However, the potential trade included the team taking back bad salaries to facilitate the movement of Parise’s remaining five years and $37.69MM. Although Parise showed a return to form somewhat over the past two years, he has never been able to replicate his numbers from earlier in career and the team has generally been unhappy with the results of their 13-year gamble. If the possibility to dump the 35-year-old Parise without any cap repercussions opened up, it would become a serious conversation. More interesting would be if the Wild also discuss Mats Zuccarello as a buyout candidate after he was a bust in the first of a five-year, $30MM deal.

Montreal Canadiens: Karl Alzner

– While there will be those that find some of the bigger names on Montreal as intriguing buyout candidates, Alzner seems like an obvious choice that will improve the roster without any risk of releasing a good player or upsetting team chemistry. Few players in recent history have had their team turn on them following a major contract as quickly as the Canadiens did with Alzner. After signing the physical defenseman as a top free agent in 2017, the Habs decided just a year later that he was not worthy of an NHL roster spot following a difficult first season. Alzner has played just 13 NHL games over the past two years, buried in the AHL for the remainder. With two years at $4.625MM remaining, Montreal would be happy to be completely rid of Alzner’s contract rather than receiving just minor saving from sending him to the minors instead.

Nashville Predators: Kyle Turris

– For a long time, Nashville GM David Poile was opposed to handing out expensive, long-term contracts. That policy served him well for quite a time, as the Predators ended up with a number of tremendous values on the roster. Since the team has started to move away from that practice, things have not gone so well. Turris is the poster boy for this statement. He signed a six-year, $36MM extension with Nashville not long after being acquired by the club early in the 2017-18 season and has never lived up to the expectations. His 54 total points over the past two years is less than the one-year total the season prior to his joining Nashville. Turris has become an expendable player, not only missing time due to injury but also as a healthy scratch. The team has been eager to move him and they likely wouldn’t hesitate to do so with a compliance buyout.

New Jersey Devils: Cory Schneider

– An overpaid, under-performing starting goalie is one thing; an overpaid, under-performing backup is another. It has been quite a time since Schneider was the top man in net in New Jersey and young Mackenzie Blackwood has now taken the reins. However, Schneider’s horrific numbers over the past two year suggest that he isn’t even capable of being an NHL backup at this point in his career. With two years remaining at $6MM, Schneider’s might be the worst goalie contract in the league and a rather obvious buyout candidate.

New York Islanders: Andrew Ladd

– Ladd, part of the infamous 2016 class of terrible free agent contracts, Ladd has never provided adequate value to the Islanders compared to his $5.5MM AAV. The team finally buried him in the AHL this season after recording just 71 points through his first three years. With the majority of their forwards signed to substantial long-term deals, there is almost no chance that Ladd can ever work his way back into the NHL mix for the Islanders. New York was ready to move him at the trade deadline and would be quick to buyout the final three years of his deal rather than continue to pay major money for him to play in the minors.

New York Rangers: Henrik Lundqvist

– While it would be a sad day for the Blueshirts and their fans, the reality is that Lundqvist is the best use of a compliance buyout on the team. New York was considering moving young Alexandar Georgiev at the deadline rather than continue to carry three goaltenders, as Igor Shesterkin looks like the starter of the future and King Henrik has become an immovable contract. However, the team would be far better off retaining both young goalies and moving on from Lundqvist, who at 38 years old had the worst season of his career and still has a season remaining at $8.5MM. That’s a hefty salary to pay the man who would be your third-string goalie next season if Georgiev is not moved. The Rangers have no shortage of options though if they cannot overcome the loyalty they feel toward Lundqvist. Defensemen Marc Staal, $5.7MM AAV, and Brendan Smith, $4.35MM AAV, have both outworn their welcomes in New York and would not be missed in the final years of their respective contracts.

Stay tuned for Part III coming soon.

Snapshots: 2020-21 Season, Trade Conditions, 2020 Draft

at CDT | by 1 Comment

While hockey minds are hard at work trying to come up with a plan to fairly complete the 2019-20 NHL regular season and playoffs, if and when the league returns to action, those strategies cannot interfere with a full 2020-21 season. TSN’s Pierre Lebrun relays word from NHL Deputy Commissioner Bill Daly that the league sees an 82-game season next year as imperative and will not entertain any options that call for a shortened 2020-21 season due to the interference with the 2019-20 campaign. With that said, LeBrun adds that the league will be flexible when it comes to start and end dates and schedule density next year, so long as each team plays 82 games. This could allow for the NHL to adopt an idea that has become popular amongst players during the break: a brief training camp and resumption of regular season play in July, an August and September postseason, an October off-season, and a return to action for a condensed 2020-21 season at some point in November. LeBrun notes that a cancellation of bye weeks and All-Star events next year could help to make a plan like this become reality. The NHL will look at all of their options, assuming there is a possibility that the current season can resume, to make next season run as normally as possible with 82 games being the critical criteria.

  • Should the NHL not be able to complete the 2019-20 season as scheduled, TSN’s Frank Seravalli states that one of biggest things that the NHL will need to clarify is a policy on trade and contract conditions. Those conditions are made with the implication of an 82-game schedule, as well as a full postseason. If those things become an impossibility, is there a fair way to determine whether conditions were met or not? Seravalli uses last summer’s trade between Pacific Division rivals Edmonton and Calgary as an example. In the swap of Milan Lucic for James Neal, a unique condition was added that awards the Flames a 2020 third-round pick if a) Neal scores at least 21 goals and b) Lucic scores ten or more goals fewer than Neal. As it stands, Neal has 19 goals on the season, so the first condition would not be met if the season ended today. However, since the deal was made with the assumption of 82 games, a pro-rated result would see Neal with 23 goals and Lucic with nine, which would result in Calgary landing the pick. The problem, as Seravalli describes, with either strategy is that it does not accurately make up for missed games. With a number of conditional picks and bonus clauses in play, the NHL would face the tough task of how it decides to treat conditions if the regular season and possibly the playoffs as well cannot be completed. Seravalli even mentions compensatory draft picks as a possibility to offset effected trade conditions.
  • One league event that is certain to occur, at some point and in some manner, is the 2020 NHL Draft. The draft is likely to remain in Montreal, but the June 26-27 dates look unlikely and the usual public audience and organized fanfare would be even more improbable if the event does go on as scheduled. In all likelihood, the draft will be postponed, but it will occur all the same. As such, NHL.com has released their updated March rankings of the top 31 players in the class. Although there hasn’t been much new film to study in recent weeks, with junior leagues paused, the college season cancelled, and most European leagues ending as well, the staff at NHL.com has made a notable changes since their last edition earlier this month. Finnish forward Anton Lundell has snuck into the top ten, supplanting Russian goaltender Yaroslav Askarov. Much like eventual Florida Panthers pick Spencer Knight last year, there was heavy top-ten talk about Askarov this season as well, but it has cooled somewhat of late as the depth of elite forward in the class could make it difficult to select a netminder so early.

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