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New York Islanders Facing Severe Roster Crunch

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After a slow summer, the month of September has belonged to GM Lou Lamoriello and the New York Islanders. On September 1, the team announced new contracts for forwards Anthony Beauvillier, Casey Cizikas, and Kyle Palmieri and goaltender Ilya Sorokin. That same day, they hinted that veteran UFA Zach Parise will also be joining the team and have provided even more evidence of that fact since, despite no formal announcement. This week, the team made a flurry of depth signings, adding forwards Andy Andreoff, Cole Bardreau, Otto Koivula, and Dmytro Timashov and defenseman Paul LaDue, while inviting veteran blue liner Erik Gustafsson to training camp. They then capped off the week with Saturday’s high-profile signing of Zdeno Chara. 

This is all well and good on its face, but the reality is that there are only so many roster spots to go around. Interestingly enough, the Islanders should be okay with the salary cap. CapFriendly currently projects the team to be over the cap, but using only $4.48MM of their $6MM in LTIR relief from Johnny Boychuk’s career-ending injury. While this projection does not include the undisclosed terms for Chara and Parise, it is based on a 23-man roster and those veterans are expected to have minimum base salary, incentive-laden contract. However, therein lies the problem. CapFriendly already has New York roster at the maximum 23 players, but that does not include Chara and Parise, nor does it include unsigned restricted free agent Kieffer Bellows. Something has to give.

So who could be on the chopping block? It isn’t a long list. Many of the Islanders’ core players are returning from a run to the semifinals last season and are locked into a roster spot. In fact, the team may have its full group of 12 starting forwards already in place. Anders Lee, Mathew Barzal, Brock Nelson, Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Josh Bailey, Oliver Wahlstrom, Palmieri, Beauvillier, and Parise expect to be in top-nine roles, while one of the league’s best fourth lines of Cal Clutterbuck, Matt Martin, and Cizikas will stick together as well. On the blue line, Adam Pelech and Ryan Pulock will man the top pair and Scott Mayfield will be back on the second pair. Young righty Noah Dobson and the veteran lefties, Chara and Andy Greene, are at least locks for a roster spot, if not a starting role. In net, there is no question that Semyon Varlamov and Sorokin will be the NHL tandem.

This leaves three roster spots up for grabs and CapFriendly has five names currently projected for the roster: forwards Ross Johnston, Leo Komarov, and Richard Panik and defensemen Sebastian Aho and the recently-signed LaDue. They don’t expect veteran defenseman Thomas Hickey to crack the roster, but the oft-buried blue liner will have a chance to battle for a spot as well. There is also the unsigned Bellows to consider, as well as the potential for Gustafsson’s PTO to be successful. A top prospect like forward Simon Holmstrom or defensemen Robin Salo, Bode Wilde, or Samuel Bolduc may also force the Isles’ hand. While excellent depth is a good problem to have, the issue for the Islanders is that all of these players (minus the prospects) are not waivers-exempt. They have seven or eight good veteran players to evaluate for three roster spots and no guarantee that the four or five that do not make the cut will not be lost on waiver.

Bellows, especially, is a risk. Assuming the 23-year-old is eventually signed, the Islanders will be tempting fate if they try to sneak him through waivers. A 2016 first-round pick, Bellows NHL action has been limited, but the noted sniper does have five goals in his 22 games. A number of teams would be willing to take a shot on his scoring potential. Johnston and Komarov have cleared waivers in the past, but both are now in the final years of their current contracts making them more attractive on waivers. Johnston is a strong defensive forward and physical presence and Komarov is a streaky, but effective two-way presence; both of which have value. Komarov’s $3MM cap hit could make him the most likely to clear waivers though. Panik, who was just acquired by the Islanders this summer, has more recent scoring results than any of the other names competing for a forward spot and has half of his salary retained, making him another dangerous waiver exposure even with two years on his current contract. Of the three available roster spots, no more than two are likely to go to the forward position, so at least two of these forwards will either need to be tested on waivers – and potentially lost for free – or otherwise traded.

The situation on defense is slightly easier to manage. Aho, LaDue, and Hickey have all cleared waivers recently. In fact, LaDue spent all of last season in the AHL and is not much of a risk to be claimed on waivers. There is some more concern with Aho, 25, and Hickey, whose $2.5MM salary is more palatable to other teams in his final year. Both spent all of last season with the Islanders, but for both to do so again it would mean sacrificing one of the aforementioned forwards who are on the chopping block. If Gustafsson does earn a contract with New York from his PTO, that would likely mean that he is earning a roster spot, as the power play specialist would draw interest from a number of teams at a minimum salary, especially with a strong preseason performance.

While it has seemed like the Islanders have been loading up in recent weeks, Lamoriello still has some work to do. Lamoriello may need to explore the trade market for Bellows if he cannot re-sign him or cannot commit to a roster spot for the high-ceiling forward. He may then need to test the trade waters for several of his other players as well, lest he lose them on waivers for nothing. One way or another, as strong as the Islanders’ depth looks right now, it is highly unlikely that all of these players will still be with the organization when the season begins. Which are retained and which are lost could come back to play a big role in the team’s success this season.

Poll: Who Will Take Home The Conn Smythe Trophy?

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While four teams are still left in the running, the end of the season is near enough that Conn Smythe Trophy speculation can begin in earnest. In recent years, future Hall of Famers have put up giant playoff performances en route to championships, as Alex Ovechkin, Victor Hedman, and Sidney Crosby have all added a playoff MVP to their résumé.

But now, we turn our attention to the players grabbing headlines during the 2021 Stanley Cup Playoffs. The Tampa Bay Lightning look poised to repeat as champions on the back of a fully healthy core. The Vegas Golden Knights are struggling and facing elimination, but always seem to turn it on when it matters most. The New York Islanders continue to play disciplined defensive hockey, and the Montreal Canadiens continue to ride an underdog wave.

The Lightning have many candidates, as the teams to fall to them know all too well. Nikita Kucherov has absolutely tormented opponents on the power play since returning from injury, leading the playoffs with 27 points in just 16 games. Brayden Point has also terrorized opponents on the scoresheet, tallying an incredible 13 goals in 16 games. Tampa Bay’s trifecta wouldn’t be complete without an incredible performance from goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy, who’s posted a .936 save percentage to pair with an 11-5 record.

Should the Islanders move on, there’s no real clear-cut candidate from their squad. It speaks as a testament to the strength of a team the Isles have assembled. Everyone’s eyes should turn immediately to Mathew Barzal, however. After a slow start, Barzal is approaching the team lead for both goals and points. Nods should also be given to Josh Bailey and Jean-Gabriel Pageau, who sit tied for the team lead with 13 points in 17 games. Brock Nelson and newcomer Kyle Palmieri share the team lead in goals with seven, and could also receive votes.

For the Golden Knights, Max Pacioretty and Alex Pietrangelo should be classified as the leading candidates. Pietrangelo has been playing his best hockey as a Knight, tallying 11 points in 18 games while playing almost 25 minutes a night. Max Pacioretty leads the team in points per game, having scored 11 in 12 since returning from injury. While Marc-Andre Fleury received earlier consideration, a string of recent mediocre performances likely put him behind Pacioretty and Pietrangelo for contender status.

And for the upstart Habs, it’s veteran Carey Price who’ll undoubtedly take home the hardware should they win it all. The 33-year-old netminder has posted a .933 save percentage in 16 games, playing every game for Montreal during the playoff run. Free-agent acquisition Tyler Toffoli could receive some love too with 14 points in 16 games.

So now we ask you – who’ll be taking home the Conn Smythe Trophy at the conclusion of these playoffs? Vote below!

[Mobile users click here to vote!]

Expansion Primer: New York Islanders

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Over the next few weeks, we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, who will likely warrant protection, and which ones may be on the block to avoid the risk of losing them for nothing? Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4:00 PM CDT on July 17th. The full eligibility rules can be found here, while CapFriendly has an expansion tool to make your own lists.

In 2017, the New York Islanders were one of the few lucky teams not to lose a player in the Expansion Draft, as the Vegas Golden Knights selected free agent goaltender Jean-Francois Berube. They paid dearly for that privilege though, trading a first-round pick, second-round pick, and defenseman Jake Bischoff (as well as the contract of Mikhail Grabovski) in order for Vegas to take Berube. The team was also the only one to protect three forwards and five defensemen.

This time around, the Islanders are unlikely to pay a heavy price to keep their unprotected players from being selected in the NHL Expansion Draft and they are also expected to go with a more orthodox protection scheme. Will they lose a good player? Sure. However, two-time reigning GM of the Year winner Lou Lamoriello has left his team in decent shape as expansion approaches.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards:
Josh Bailey, Mathew Barzal, Anthony Beauvillier, Kieffer Bellows, Cal Clutterbuck, Austin Czarnik, Michael Dal Colle, Jordan Eberle, Ross Johnston, Otto Koivula, Leo Komarov, Andrew Ladd, Anders Lee, Matt Martin, Brock Nelson, Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Dmytro Timashov

Defense:
Sebastian Aho, Thomas Hickey, Nick Leddy, Scott Mayfield, Adam Pelech, Ryan Pulock, Parker Wotherspoon

Goalies:
Ken Appleby, Semyon Varlamov

Notable Unrestricted Free Agents

F Casey Cizikas, D Braydon Coburn, D Andy Greene, F Kyle Palmieri, F Travis Zajac

Notable Exemptions

D Johnny Boychuk (Inj.), D Samuel Bolduc, D Noah Dobson, D Robin Salo, G Jakub Skarek, G Ilya Sorokin, F Oliver Wahlstrom

Key Decisions

When you miss the playoffs or even exit early, it is easier to look toward the future when it comes to making difficult decisions in regards to the Expansion Draft (see: Philadelphia Flyers). However, when it comes to the Islanders, their current deep playoff run could make that difficult. The team faces several decisions in which they must choose between a top veteran or a younger future piece and must sort that out.

However, there are some no-brainers to start. In goal, the team specifically signed Appleby only to expose him, allowing them to protect starter Varlamov. On defense, the tongue-twisting top pair of Pelech and Pulock are locked in for protection. At forward, young core pieces Barzal and Beauvillier and captain Lee are also guarantees.

After that, things get difficult. The seemingly easy call is to protect their other top-scoring veteran forwards. Bailey, Nelson, Eberle, and Pageau are all key pieces to this season and playoff run and are all signed long-term. However, Bailey and Eberle will both turn 32 next season and carry expensive contracts for several more years, but have shown signs of decline in recent seasons. They will both certainly be contributors for another year or possibly longer, but are they worth losing another forward and missing out on using the cap space elsewhere?

If any of that core group of top-nine forwards is not protected, other candidates include reliable fourth liners Clutterbuck and Martin. However, the player who deserves the most consideration is young Bellows. The 23-year-old forward is a 2016 first-round pick who produced with the USNTDP, in the NCAA, the WHL, and most recently the AHL. His scoring has yet to translate to the NHL, but it seems like a safe bet. With more time and opportunity, Bellows could easily be a top goal-scorer for an NHL team. Do the Islanders risk that team being the Seattle Kraken?

One thing that is certain is that the depth up front will ensure the Islanders use the 7-3 protetion scheme. On defense, behind Pelech and Pulock, it may seem like top-scoring defenseman Leddy should be the final pick and he very well may be. After some down years, Leddy impressed this season and was invaluable to the Islanders’ success. He also plays a key leadership role as an experienced, long-time member of the team.

However, Leddy’s age and his expiring contract could make him a diminishing asset for the team. In his place, they could keep the younger, more affordable, and arguably equally valuable Mayfield. Initially more of a stay-at-home defenseman, Mayfield has rounded out his game in recent years and with that his role has increased. At $1.45MM for two more years, Mayfield is a bargain and would have a greater total impact on the team if Leddy leaves after next season, even if Leddy is the superior performer next season alone. Is that enough to make him the selection? Another outside-the-box candidate would be 22-year-old Aho, who showed potential last season but took a step back this year.

Projected Protection List

F Josh Bailey
F Mathew Barzal
F Anthony Beauvillier
F Jordan Eberle
F Anders Lee
F Brock Nelson
F Jean-Gabriel Pageau

D Nick Leddy
D Adam Pelech
D Ryan Pulock

G Semyon Varlamov

Skater Exposure Requirement Checklist

When Vegas had their expansion draft, a minimum of two forwards and one defenseman had to be exposed that were under contract and played either 40 games in the most recent season or 70 over the past two combined.  Due to the pandemic, those thresholds have been changed to 27 games played in 2020-21 or 54 in 2019/20 and 2020-21 combined.  In creating our expansion list for each team in this series, we will ensure that these criteria are met.

Forwards (3): Cal Clutterbuck, Leo Komarov, Matt Martin

Defensemen (1): Scott Mayfield

The Islanders’ current playoff run could very likely determine their approach to the Expansion Draft. If they feel strongly about their success in winning the East Division or if they are able to advance to the next round, they may feel that they are close enough to winning a Stanley Cup that they keep all of their top-performing veterans. Yet, if they win the Cup, perhaps that focus shifts back to the future and the emphasis becomes long-term assets. Either way, the Islanders will have to expose good players and after giving up a king’s ransom to Vegas in the last round of Expansion and already with a relatively shallow prospect pipeline and missing several draft picks, they are unlikely to make any side deals.

If available, a top veteran like Leddy, Bailey, or Eberle would be an easy pick for Seattle. However, assuming they are protected, Mayfield does stick out as the top option. The only issue there could be that there will be many teams who expose solid defensemen and don’t have any quality forwards available. A young, high-upside forward like Bellows may be hard to pass up. The Kraken will have plenty of options and the Islanders will lose a good player – likely their No. 4 defenseman or top forward prospect – but they will survive.

East Notes: Granato, Halak, Islanders, Chara

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The Buffalo Sabres seem like a different team since Ralph Krueger was fired and replaced with interim head coach Don Granato. While it was believed that Granato was strictly holding the fort down for the remainder of the season until the team could hire more experienced NHL coach, there are many voices suggesting that the Sabres may have already found their coach of the future in Granato.

In fact, the Buffalo News’ Mike Harrington notes that the team has played well under Granato, who has stressed the need for the players to have fun and has already made a positive impression on the play of Rasmus Dahlin, Casey Mittelstadt and Tage Thompson. He has practiced the team hard since taking over and while his team started at 0-5-1, he has turned the team around since then and has a 5-3-2 record since that point. His style of coaching is quite a bit different than the defense-first style of Krueger and the players seem to be responding to it, suggesting that Buffalo should hold onto what it has.

  • After getting back Tuukka Rask recently, the Boston Bruins could be close to getting back another goaltender shortly as head coach Bruce Cassidy said Sunday that Jaroslav Halak has been skating on his own and could be eligible to return to the team on Monday. Halak was removed from the COVID Protocol list Saturday after having missed two weeks. The 35-year-old has been solid for the Bruins this season in 17 appearances, boasting a 2,44 GAA and a .910 save percentage and should help stabilize the net even more in Boston.
  • New York Islanders head coach Barry Trotz said that the injuries to both Josh Bailey and Cal Clutterbuck are considered to be closer to day-to-day as opposed to week-to-week, according to Newsday’s Andrew Gross. However, he added that there isn’t a clear timeline for the return of either player. Bailey and Clutterbuck are expected to miss their second-straight game Sunday with a undisclosed injuries. Bailey has six goals and 25 points in 43 games so far this season, while Clutterbuck has three goals, nine points and 147 hits on the team’s fourth line this year.
  • Washington Capitals defenseman Zdeno Chara missed his first game of the season Sunday after taking some painful shots off his body Saturday against Philadelphia, according to NHL.com’s Tom Gulitti. He is considered day-to-day.

COVID Protocol Related Absences: 01/20/21

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Each day, the NHL will publicly release the list of players that are unavailable to their respective teams due to being in COVID-19 protocol. Other than the Montreal Canadiens, listed as TBA, and the Dallas Stars, the other 29 teams are covered on today’s list:

Carolina – Warren Foegele, Jordan Martinook, Jaccob Slavin, Jordan Staal, Teuvo Teravainen
Columbus – Mikko Koivu
Detroit – Adam Erne, Robby Fabbri
Florida – Juho Lammikko
Minnesota Wild – Alex Stalock
Nashville – Mikael Granlund
New Jersey – Jesper Bratt*
NY Islanders – Josh Bailey*
Philadelphia – Shayne Gostisbehere
Tampa Bay –  Curtis McElhinney
Washington Capitals – Evgeny Kuznetsov*, Dmitry Orlov*, Alex Ovechkin*, Ilya Samsonov*
Winnipeg – Anton Forsberg, Tucker Poolman

As a reminder, inclusion on this list does not mean that a player has tested positive for Coronavirus or even that they have been confirmed as a close contact to another positive person. Included in the NHL’s list of possible reasons for someone being on the list is are the following:

(1) an initial positive test which remains unconfirmed until confirmatory testing is completed pursuant to the Positive Test Protocol; (2) mandated isolation for symptomatic individuals pursuant to the Positive Test Protocol; (3) required quarantine as a high-risk close contact in accordance with the Positive Test Protocol; (4) isolation based on a confirmed positive test result and/or; (5) quarantine for travel or other reasons as outlined in the COVID-19 Protocol

Players removed today: Eric Comrie, New Jersey Devils; Blake Coleman, Tampa Bay Lightning.

As for the missing teams, the Canadiens are on the road in Vancouver and have until 5:00pm local time to report, but are not expected to have any players in the protocol. As has been the case so far this season, the league declined to identify anyone from Dallas and will hold off on doing so until they are able to play in their first game, now scheduled for January 22. They had a significant outbreak early in camp as 17 of the 27 players that tested positive in training camp were from the Stars.

*denotes new addition

Salary Cap Deep Dive: New York Islanders

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Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2019-20 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

New York Islanders

Current Cap Hit: $74,746,666 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Oliver Wahlstrom (three years, $925K)
D Sebastian Aho (one year, $925K)
D Noah Dobson (three years, $894K)
F Mathew Barzal (one year, $863K)

Potential Bonuses:

Wahlstrom: $538K
Dobson: $538K
Barzal: $400K
Aho: $100K

Barzal will be an interesting case as the young center saw his numbers drop off after an amazing rookie campaign as the 22-year-old got more attention from top defenders without John Tavares to protect him. While his goals only dropped by four (18) last year, he saw his assist numbers slip from 63 to 44. However, many people feel that Barzal should take that next step and establish himself as top-line center. While the Islanders can only hope that this will happen, it could also prove to be costly for New York as Barzal will be wrapping up the final year of his entry-level contract and could be in line for a major deal as the youngster is likely keeping a close eye on all the unsigned restricted free-agents on the market currently.

The Islanders have quite a bit of talent in the system and several of their top picks from 2018 could be ready to contribute this season. Wahlstrom, the 11th-overall pick, played well in his one season at Boston College, but looked even more impressive in a short showcase with the Bridgeport Sound Tigers of the AHL. He played five regular season games, scoring two goals, but added another two goals and four points in five playoff games. Dobson, the team’s 12th-overall pick last season, could be ready to take a key spot in the Islanders defense.

While the defense could add Dobson this season, another addition could be Toews who looks to be ready for an increased role with the Islanders. The 25-year-old put up 18 points in 48 games last season and looks ready to contribute.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

G Thomas Greiss ($3.33MM, UFA)
F Matt Martin ($2.5MM, UFA)
D Ryan Pulock ($2MM, RFA)
F Derick Brassard ($1.2MM, UFA)
F Tom Kuhnhackl ($850K, UFA)
D Devon Toews ($700K, RFA)

While Robin Lehner received all the attention for his stellar play in goal, Islanders’ fans were just as pleased with the play of Greiss, who just a couple of years ago was considered to have an untradeable contract. However, no one is complaining after Greiss put up impressive numbers last year. The 33-year-old had a .927 save percentage and a 2.28 GAA in 43 appearances and should be a key piece for New York in his final year, although with several prospects getting closer to being NHL ready, this is likely to be his last year with the Islanders.

The 24-year-old Pulock continued to improve his game, especially offensively. He finished the season with nine goals and 37 assists, which is impressive considering the team’s offense dropped off quite a bit since the 2017-18 season as the defenseman continues to work on his defensive game. He could be prime for another big contract if he can take his game to another level.

Islanders general manager Lou Lamoriello is a big believer in a veteran bottom-six and has done well with both Martin and Kuhnhackl as well as Brassard, who the team signed recently and could always get a new contract if they continue to perform well.

Two Years Remaining

F Casey Cizikas ($3.35MM, UFA)
D Adam Pelech ($1.6MM, UFA)
F Michael Dal Colle ($700K, RFA)
F Tanner Fritz ($700K, UFA)

The 28-year-old Cizikas had a breakout season last year. Not only did he finally break the double-digit barrier, he actually reached 20 goals. The hope is that Cizikas can repeat that success as he is expected to continue playing on the team’s impressive fourth line. The team also has hopes that Dal Colle can win a regular spot. The 23-year old got a 27 game trial, scoring three goals and seven points last season.

The defensive minded Pelech has been a solid player for the Islanders and is quite a bargain at $1.6MM. Perhaps the top left-handed defenseman, he has received solid minutes and should continue to get good minutes this season. The team

Three Years Remaining

D Johnny Boychuk ($6MM, UFA)
D Nick Leddy ($5.5MM, UFA)
F Cal Clutterbuck ($3.5MM, UFA)
F Leo Komarov ($3MM, UFA)
D Thomas Hickey ($2.5MM, UFA)
F Ross Johnston ($1MM, UFA)

At age 35, the team will be paying for Boychuk’s late years and there does seem to be a decline in his play as both his ATOI and his points dropped. On the positive, his 74 games played is the most he’s played since he was with the Bruins back in 2013-14. However, he saw his minutes drop by almost two per game and picked up just 19 points last season. That could mean a reduced role for the veteran this season as he could slide outside the top four and move into a bottom-pairing role. The 28-year-old Leddy, however, continues to play well as he broke the 20-minute mark for the fifth-straight season. His offense, however, took a hit as he only tallied 26 points after three straight 40-point seasons, but with a defense-first philosophy, that might not be surprising. The team also has high hopes that Hickey, who missed quite a bit of time due to an upper-body injury, will stay healthy this season. The two-way blueliner will be a key addition for the team, but he will have to earn his playing time, especially if Dobson makes the roster out of training camp.

With Cizikas and Martin, Clutterbuck gives the Islanders a physical and offensive fourth-line that is one of the best in the league and the 31-year-old has been putting up 200-plus hits 10 of the last 11 years and is expected to continue that success. Komarov also has put up big hits (203), giving the team quite a bit of physicality for the next few years.

Four Or More Years Remaining

F Anders Lee ($7MM through 2025-26)
F Brock Nelson ($6MM through 2024-25)
F Jordan Eberle ($5.5MM through 2023-24)
F Andrew Ladd ($5.5MM through 2022-23)
G Semyon Varlamov ($5MM through 2022-23)
F Josh Bailey ($5MM through 2023-24)
D Scott Mayfield ($1.45MM through 2022-23)

Lamoriello was busy this offseason, signing four of these long-term deals this summer. The team was hoping to steal Artemi Panarin from the New York Rangers at the last minute, but when that fell through, the team immediately locked up their captain to a seven-year deal. Lee posted solid numbers, scoring 28 goals and 51 points, while showing off a plus-20 rating on the ice. Nelson, who many believed was the most likely to bolt the Islanders, surprised many by signing a six-year deal at $6MM after career-high 53 points and netted four goals in eight playoff games last year. Eberle was another key signing as the team committed five years and $5.5MM per season to him despite a down year where he had just 37 points, one of the lowest numbers of his career. However, a strong playoff performance might have been enough to prove his worth after he tallied four goals and nine points in eight playoff games.

The team made a shocking move this offseason when they opted not to keep the fan-favorite Lehner and instead signed Russian goaltender Semyon Varlamov away from Colorado. One reason for that was because the team still hopes to convince top Russian goalie prospect Ilya Sorokin to come to the U.S., which might be easier with Lehner out of the way and a veteran countryman in place to ease him into the NHL. However, Varlamov has the potential to be quite successful with the Islanders’ defensive system. He has been quite successful over the years, but has had to deal with many injuries as well.

Bailey may be one of the better deals the teams has. The pass-first winger put up another solid season, putting up 16 goals and 56 points and added four goals in the playoffs and is a key player on the team’s top-six. On the other hand, Ladd may have the contract that looks the worst on the team. The 33-year-old veteran continues to deal with injury issues. This time, the veteran only appeared in 26 games, putting up just three goals for the team. He put up a 23-goal season back in the 2016-17 season, but the team rewarded him with a seven-year, $38.5MM deal, which so far looks like a disaster after he has scored just 15 goals in two seasons and isn’t likely to get the minutes he needs to make that deal look decent.

Buyouts

None

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Salary Cap Recapture

None

Still To Sign

F Anthony Beauvillier

This will be a key year for Beauvillier once he signs. A 2015 first-round pick, the 22-year-old winger struggled in a top-six role last year, putting up 18 goals and 10 assists and he must show that he can take his game to another level. He likely will command some kind of bridge deal to prove his value to the franchise as he hasn’t necessarily shown enough to warrant a long-term deal. However, if he can’t show that he belongs on the top-six, he could find himself falling to the third line soon.

Best Value: Bailey
Worst Value: Ladd

Looking Ahead

The Islanders put all their eggs in one basket this summer. Lamoriello had all the cap space he needed to shape the franchise any way he wanted, but in the end, he brought back almost all of his key unrestricted free agents and has committed to keep his team. The team broke all expectations last season as few expected the team to even make the playoffs, let alone sweep their first-round opponent. Regardless, the belief that under head coach Barry Trotz, the team will continue to get better and battle for a Stanley Cup for the next few years. The team has committed to its core and now have to hope that their farm system can continue to develop their young players and add to the Islanders team for the next few years.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Deadline Primer: New York Islanders

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With the trade deadline fast approaching, we continue our look at the situation for each team over the coming weeks. Where do they stand, what do they need to do, and what assets do they have to fill those needs? As we continue with the Metropolitan Division, here is a look at the New York Islanders.

The New York Islanders are under new management and new general manager Lou Lamoriello has made a name for himself over the years with numerous big deals at the trade deadline during his time with New Jersey and Toronto. The question is whether Lamoriello intends to making a big move with his team being atop the Metropolitan Division.

The team has a core of pending unrestricted free agents who Lamoriello may or may not bring back next season and a number of impressive prospects that are either on the team or sitting with the Bridgeport Sound Tigers of the AHL and has plenty of cap space to work with. Besides Mathew Barzal, the team still lacks a defining core to work and could use another big-name player or two to give the team several faces to the franchise, which is where the deadline could come in. The real question is do the Islanders want to take the chance of possibly damaging the chemistry the team has created so far this year under head coach Barry Trotz.

Record

35-17-6, first in the Metropolitan Division

Deadline Status

Serious to moderate buyer

Deadline Cap Space

$46.12MM in full-season cap hit, 0/3 used salary cap retention slots, 45/50 contracts per CapFriendly

Upcoming Draft Picks

2019: NYI 1st, CAL 2nd, NYI 5th, NYI 6th, NYI 7th
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Trade Chips

The team has a number of players it could package to a team for a big-name player as the team has five significant players who are approaching unrestricted free agency in the summer, including Jordan Eberle, Brock Nelson, Anders Lee, Valtteri Filppula and goaltender Robin Lehner. That doesn’t mean the team has any intention of trading even one of those players. That also doesn’t mean the team won’t let them walk away in free agency either. In fact, there is little known about what the team intends to do before next season and knowing what we know about Lamoriello, the team will make significant changes to their team before the start of next season. However, if Lamoriello intends to make a deal, those five could potentially be part of any package. One interesting storyline is Lehner, who is having a comeback season after struggling greatly in Buffalo and dealing with alcoholism. However, does the franchise feel that he is worthy of a long-term deal or could Lehner be used to work out a deal for a Sergei Bobrovsky?

The team also has a number of young players who could be sent out as well, including Michael Dal Colle, Kieffer Bellows, Joshua Ho-Sang, Otto Koivula, and Sebastian Aho to name a few and that doesn’t even include the talent they still have sitting in the junior ranks. Bellows could be a significant trade chip as the team’s 2016 first-rounder has had significant success on his way up, but has also had some struggles. He currently has 11 goals as a rookie in the AHL. Ho-Sang, who has showed some offensive flair over the years, hasn’t put it all together and has struggled with his attitude. One other significant asset the team has is a significant amount of cap space and the team could be willing to take on a bad contract or two if that can net them another talent.

Five Players To Watch For: F Keiffer Bellows, F Jordan Eberle, F Joshua Ho-Sang, G Robin Lehner, F Brock Nelson

Team Needs

1) Franchise Player: Other than Barzal, the team lacks that face-of-the-franchise player at the forward position who can take over games for the next eight years. The team does have Josh Bailey under contract for a few more years, but the rest of the top-six will have to be written, whether that includes re-signing some of their own unrestricted free agents or whether they attempt to trade for a player like Artemi Panarin, Matt Duchene, Mark Stone or even someone like Bobrovsky in net.

2) Upgrade on defense: The interesting thing about the Islanders’ defense is that it went from being one of the worst defenses in the league in the 2017-18 season as they allowed 3.57 goals per game (31st in the league) and suddenly the team has totally turned that around in 2018-19 as they have allowed just 2.29 goals per game (first in the league). And that’s with almost no changes on defensive personnel. The team lost defenseman Calvin De Haan, but basically returned the same group from the previous year. Obviously, much of the credit should be given to Trotz, but at the same time, the team needs to consider adding to that defense and improving its blueline like acquiring a Alec Martinez from Los Angeles or Cody Ceci from Ottawa.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Anders Lee Named Captain Of New York Islanders

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The New York Islanders were one of several teams to lose their captain this summer after John Tavares left for the Toronto Maple Leafs, but they’re no longer without a leader. The team today named Anders Lee as the 15th captain in team history, while announcing that Josh Bailey, Cal Clutterbuck and Andrew Ladd will serve as alternates this season.

This announcement follows the news that the Islanders and Lee are discussing a long-term extension, and likely signals that a deal will happen before Lee becomes an unrestricted free agent at the end of the year. With the turnover the organization has had on the ice, behind the bench and in the front office, naming a player captain only to see him walk out the door a few months later would be tough to swallow.

Lee, 28, has evolved into one of the best goal scorers in the league in recent years, recording 34 and 40 in the past two seasons. The big winger can do a little bit of everything on the ice, and should be able to ride shotgun with Mathew Barzal for many years at the front of the New York offense. There were few who saw this coming when Lee was selected in the sixth round in 2009, but his fall was more because of the competition he had faced playing in the Minnesota high school circuit than anything he’d done on the ice. Lee dominated in high school and kept that production going through his year in the USHL and a three-year career at Notre Dame, where he became one of the best forwards in the country.

It’s hard to argue with this choice for the Islanders unless a contract isn’t reached, as Lee is an emotional leader on the ice and should be the one head coach Barry Trotz can lean on to spark his team. While Barzal may be the future superstar center for the Islanders, Lee will be asked to lead this team back to the playoffs and try to contend for the Stanley Cup. Ladd, a former captain himself, will be there along the way to help out along with Bailey and Clutterbuck who have been integral parts of the roster for years.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

The Contract Each Team Would Most Like To Trade: Part II

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Nearly every team has one of those players: a top talent they were excited to sign and never thought could do anything but help them. In hindsight, history shows that more often than not, expensive, long-term free agent contracts don’t work out. It may look good at first (or it may look bad right away to the outside observer), but players struggle to make their value last throughout a lengthy contract. Those contracts come back to bite teams and are hard to get rid of. As teams begin to finalize their rosters at this point in the off-season, many are struggling to make everyone fit under the salary cap and are regretting these past signings that exasperate a cap crunch that can be tough for even a mistake-free club. We already took a look at the first third of the league; here are the contracts that each team would most like to trade, from Detroit to Ottawa:

Detroit Red Wings: Frans Nielsen – four years, $21MM remaining

As speculated by some readers in the comments section, it was no mistake that Part I ended with Dallas. Detroit deserved both some extra consideration and to lead off an article about poor contracts. There is an argument to be made that almost every single player age 28 and over on the Red Wings roster is signed to a bad contract for one reason or another. Detroit is a team that ranks towards the bottom of the standings and towards the top of the salary cap and that is not just bad luck. However, some are much worse than others and they are so bad that it is tough to choose between them. Take this scenario: Player A scored 35 points in 75 games last season. It was 14 points more than the season prior, including six more goals, and Player A also led the team in hits. He is 31 years old and signed for five more years at $4.25MM per. Player B scored 33 points in 79 games last season. It was eight points less than the season prior, and Player B also had the worst face-off percentage among the team’s centers. He is 34 years old and signed for four more years at $5.25MM per. Still undecided about which contract the team would rather trade? Player A is a Michigan native and career Red Wing and Player B is entering only his third year after signing a lucrative free agent contract. Player A of course is perennial whipping boy Justin Abdelkader. Yes, the Abdelkader contract is terrible. At no point in his career has he been worth his current contract value. Yet, he improved last season, is younger and brings a defensive element to his game, and is also loyal to the current administration – the call of the question after all is which contract the team would most like to trade. That would instead be Player B, Frans Nielsen, who at 34 is predictably declining and last year made more than Abdelkader for less production and there is no reason to believe that trend won’t continue. The team rewarded Adbelkader for years of service, whereas they took a gamble on Nielsen that hasn’t paid off. One of those moves is far more regrettable. Nielsen is the guy, but he only narrowly edged out Abdelkader and defenseman Danny DeKeyser, who also has relative age and Detroit roots to his advantage.

Edmonton Oilers: Milan Lucic – five years, $30MM remaining

The Oilers can refute trade rumors surrounding Milan Lucic all they want. The truth of the matter is that GM Peter Chiarelli signed Lucic hoping that he could both produce with and protect Connor McDavid in Edmonton as he did for David Krejci in Boston. The only problem is that the 30-year-old power forward can no longer keep up with a player of McDavid’s caliber. Lucic managed to score 34 points last season, tied for fourth on the team, but that is nowhere near what is expected of a $6MM player, especially when he scored 50 in year one with the Oilers and topped that mark many times with the Bruins. Edmonton still may be holding out hope that Lucic can turn it around and be just as much of a scoring threat as he is a physical threat, but make no mistake that the team would be quick to get rid of his contract if the right deal came along. In contrast, the team would be far more hesitant to move a hefty contract like defenseman Andrej Sekera who has been good and injury-prone, rather than healthy and underwhelming.

Florida Panthers: Roberto Luongo – four years, $18.13MM remaining

Florida is a tough one. Dale Tallon has done a good job of locking up his core long-term and, despite being right up against the cap, there are few egregious contracts on the roster right now. Give it a few years and maybe Michael Matheson will hold this title, but for now it goes to Roberto Luongo by default. Of course, Luongo is beloved in Florida and the team doesn’t even have to carry the whole of his cap hit, with the Vancouver Canucks retaining $800K each year. However, the reality is that Luongo will turn 40 this season and it will be only the first of four years left on his deal. The Panthers have almost $8MM committed to two goalies for the next few years and the other, James Reimer, is younger and outplayed Luongo in 2016-17 and in more games to boot. While they both fought injuries this past season, it was Luongo back on top performance-wise, but the impressive numbers he did post came in just 35 appearances versus Reimer’s 44. Florida paying over $4.5MM per year to a backup goalie in his forties just doesn’t make sense and the team would be better off moving forward with just Reimer and Michael Hutchinson if they could find a way to trade Luongo. Another reason this contract is bad: both the Panthers and Canucks will be hit with cap recapture penalties if Luongo retires prior to 2022.

Los Angeles Kings: Dustin Brown – four years, $23.5MM remaining

For the first time in years, Kings fans are feeling good about Dustin Brown. That is why now is the perfect time to trade him. Brown had been the bane of L.A.’s existence for four years, registering no more than 36 points each year while eating up $5.875MM in cap space, when he finally broke out of his funk in 2017-18 with a massive 61-point season and one of the league’s best plus/minus ratings. The question now is whether the past four years were an aberration with this season setting a new baseline or will Brown regress back to his bottom-six production. With a cap-strapped roster full of expensive contracts for older players, L.A. can’t take the risk of keeping Brown around if the right opportunity presents itself. They would be forced to trade the career King if a taker came forward rather than hold out hope that he doesn’t revert back to his old ways of being drastically overpaid.

Minnesota Wild: Zach Parise – seven years, $52.77MM remaining

When the Wild signed 28-year-old’s Zach Parise and Ryan Suter to matching 13-year contracts worth almost $100MM apiece, they knew that those deals would have dark days at some point in the future. However, they never could have imagined that Parise’s decline would come so soon. Parise remains one of the most popular players on the team, but injuries have kept him off the ice and affected his play when on the ice over the ice and his stock is falling quickly. Parise has never been able to reach the peaks he enjoyed in New Jersey, but he still produced at a high level over his first four seasons with the team. The past two years have been a different story and Parise appears to be trending in the wrong direction. Now 33, Parise isn’t totally beyond help and could turn it around. If back at 100%, Parise has enough natural ability and enough talent around him to still be a $7.5MM player. However, it would be nearly impossible for Minnesota to ever move the behemoth that is his contract so, if somehow they received an offer, they would take it without a second thought. Fan favorite or not, there is too much risk associated with Parise moving forward.

Montreal Canadiens: Shea Weber – seven years, $55MM remaining

I know what you’re thinking and yes, the Carey Price contract doesn’t look great right now. However, an extension of any length and value for any player coming off an injury-riddled season would bring a skewed perception. Price has been one of the best goalies in the league for years and one bad season doesn’t change that. Will he lose that title in the next eight years? For sure, but it would be a shock to see the Canadiens move their poster boy any time soon. Their #1 defenseman is another question though. When Montreal acquired Shea Weber for P.K. Subban, they never could have anticipated that his body would break down so soon after. Injuries cost Weber all but 26 games last season and he will miss the beginning of 2018-19 as well. Weber doesn’t seem like the type of player who will retire early, but there is no guarantee that these injuries won’t slow him down significantly for the remainder of his contract. In fact, the only guarantee is that he will slow down over the next seven years. At $7.86MM, the Canadiens need Weber to be his dynamic two-way self. The team already has one overpaid stay-at-home defenseman in Karl Alzner and can’t afford another. If they could move Weber, they would.

Nashville Predators: None

GM David Poile flat out doesn’t sign bad contracts. Criticize the deals for Ryan Johansen and Kyle Turris if you like, but the bargain contracts throughout the rest of the lineup have allowed Poile to overpay for reliable centers and that is a team-building model that anyone can get behind.

New Jersey Devils: Corey Schneider – four years, $24MM remaining

The easy answer is that the Devils don’t feel any pressure to trade anyone on the roster. They currently have the lowest payroll in the league with nearly every player signed to a fair deal. Those who are overpriced – Travis Zajac and Andy Greene – play important leadership role and the only player signed to a substantially long-term deal is electric young blue liner Damon Severson. The one and only player that sticks out as a potential long-term cap problem is starting goaltender Corey Schneider. This may surprises some; after all Schneider trails only Tuukka Rask among active save percentage leaders. Schneider had been elite since arriving in New Jersey, but something started to change in 2016-17. His SV% fell to .908 and his GAA inflated to 2.82 and then things only got worse last season with a SV% of .907 and a GAA of 2.93. He was also limited to just 40 appearances this year and was outplayed by journeyman Keith Kinkaid. The Devils can’t count on Kinkaid to repeat his 2017-18 performance moving forward and if Schneider’s back-to-back bad years are more than a fluke, they can’t depend on him for four more years either. He’s not going to be a $6MM backup either. New Jersey will give Schneider the time he needs to return to form, but they may not hesitate if the right trade comes their way as well.

New York Islanders: Andrew Ladd – five years, $27.5MM remaining

The Islanders without John Tavares are a totally different animal. A six-year, $30MM extension for Josh Bailey now looks bad. A $5.75MM cap hit this season for free agents Leo Komarov and Valtteri Filppula signed to make up for Tavares’ lost production looks bad. The likes of Cal Clutterbuck, Casey Cizikas, and Matt Martin now look worse on a team that needs more offense and less grit. However, the one contract that looked miserable well before Tavares bolted to Toronto is Andrew Ladd and it is only going to get much worse. The veteran forward was intended to find chemistry with Tavares when he was signed to a seven-year, $38.5MM contract two years ago. Instead, Ladd has just 60 points over the past two seasons combined and has by all accounts been relegated to a bottom-six role. The 32-year-old will now be asked to take a bigger role in Tavares’ stead and that is a scary proposition. The Islanders aren’t in any cap trouble, but the team should be thinking rebuild and would likely take any offer at all to rid themselves of Ladd.

New York Rangers: Brendan Smith – three years, $13.05MM remaining

Has any free agent contract in recent memory soured as quickly as Brendan Smith’s? Smith signed a four-year deal with the Rangers last June and was expected to play a top-four role for the team for years to come. By February, he had been placed on waivers and buried in the AHL. Smith played in only 44 games with New York and saw less and less ice time as the season wore on and he continued to turn the puck over at an alarming rate and cost his team goals. Now what? One would assume that Smith will be given a second chance this season, but the relationship between he and the team may be beyond repair. There is no doubt that the Rangers would take a re-do on that deal and would move him if possible. Marc Staal is another player that New York wouldn’t mind moving, but as a player who can eat minutes and provide solid play most of the time, his $5.7MM contract seems like nothing next to Smith’s $4.35MM deal.

Ottawa Senators: Bobby Ryan – four years, $29MM remaining

No contract in the league has become as notorious for being labeled a “bad deal” that the team is desperate to trade like Bobby Ryan’s. The Senators are so determined to move on from Ryan that they are trying to force Erik Karlsson trade suitors to take the overpaid forward as well. At one point in time, $7.25MM per year for Ryan seemed like a fair deal. At 23 years old he was a 71-point player with the Anaheim Ducks and even after moving to Ottawa, Ryan started his tenure with three straight seasons in the 50-point range. However, the last two years have been very different. Ryan has only suited up for 62 games in each campaign and has looked like a different player on offense. At his best, he looks disinterested and lucky to be in the right place at the right time and at his worst he costs his team goals. Ryan has managed to register only 58 points combined over the past two years; he had 56 alone in 2015-16. Ryan may just need a change of scenery to jump start what used to be dynamic goal-scoring game, but the Senators don’t care about that. All he is to them is a waste of cap space and of owner Eugene Melnyk’s dwindling wealth. They want him gone at any cost.

Look out for Part III of this three-part series early next week…

 

Islanders Must Focus On Moving Forward After Tavares

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When the New York Islanders lost John Tavares, the franchise found itself in a worse situation than it had hoped. The team that struggled a year ago on defense and in goal now lost their top scorer and seem to lack identity (except in the front office). The team will likely make Calder Trophy winner Mathew Barzal the new face of the franchise, but without Tavares, there remains a significant hole in their lineup.

While it seems likely Barzal will replace Tavares as the team’s top center, the real question is who will take over as the team’s No. 2 center? One positive note for New York is that the team has almost $20MM in available cap space after Tavares opted to go to Toronto and that’s after the signings of Valtteri Filppula, Leo Komarov, Robin Lehner and Tom Kuhnhackl as well as trading for Matt Martin. Regardless, none of those players are candidates to fill that No. 2 center position. The team does have restricted free agent Brock Nelson as a candidate to fill that role, but his status is up in the air.

The Athletic’s Shayna Goldman (subscription required) suggests if the Islanders want to make some type of impact move to suggest to their fan base that they are ready to move on (because bringing in Filppula, Komorov, Kuhnhackl, Lehner and Martin didn’t accomplish that), they must look to the trade market where there are a number of interesting names that the team could look to acquire, especially at the center position to show they are moving forward.

The top name is interesting enough as Goldman suggests that New York looks at the Ottawa Senators who are looking to cast off players left and right. Already having moved on from Mike Hoffman and in current trade talks with Erik Karlsson, the scribe writes the Islanders could attempt to make an offer to pry centers Matt Duchene or Jean-Gabriel Pageau away.

While Duchene would probably cost the Islanders quite a bit, he could potentially be a reasonable replacement for Tavares. Even though Ottawa gave up a lot to acquire Duchene less than a year ago, they may be ready to move on from him as he will be a free agent after this season and he might not want to return after having to endure the many problems that Ottawa has dealt with in the past year. However in New York, the team could match him with players like Anders Lee, Jordan Eberle or Josh Bailey and get solid production from him and the team would have the cap room to lock him up. The only downside to acquiring Duchene (despite the likely high cost) would be the team would have to sign him as well as Lee and Eberle next season as all three would be unrestricted free agents for the 2019-20 season. Pageau would be a much cheaper option, but lacks much upside if they want to use him as a second-line center.

One other option would be to pry Tyler Johnson away from the Tampa Bay Lightning, especially with the team attempting to clear out cap space to accommodate Karlsson. Johnson would provide significant value as a second-line center as well, but is locked up for six years at $5MM AAV, so they would be able to hold onto him for a long time.

While finding a replacement for Tavares, the team must also attempt to fix their other issues as they’ve done little to address their defense or goaltending. Adding Robin Lehner helps a little, but after the 26-year-old suffered through a disastrous season (3.01 GAA and a .908 save percentage), a Lehner-Thomas Greiss combination doesn’t sound particularly thrilling. The defense also needs help. The team lost Calvin de Haan to Carolina, although they did bring back Thomas Hickey. Although the team has high hopes that Ryan Pulock is ready to move into a top-four role immediately, his defense has always been suspect, so he isn’t likely to improve the Islanders defensive deficiencies. Andrew Gross of Newsday writes that the team should consider looking into acquiring Justin Faulk from the Carolina Hurricanes as he would provide that stability and would look good as the No. 1 piece along with Hickey, Pulock, Johnny Boychuk and Nick Leddy.

Regardless, with few quality options available to them on the free agent market, the team likely has little choice to make a deal.

 

 

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