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Salary Cap Deep Dive: New York Islanders

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Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2019-20 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

New York Islanders

Current Cap Hit: $74,746,666 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Oliver Wahlstrom (three years, $925K)
D Sebastian Aho (one year, $925K)
D Noah Dobson (three years, $894K)
F Mathew Barzal (one year, $863K)

Potential Bonuses:

Wahlstrom: $538K
Dobson: $538K
Barzal: $400K
Aho: $100K

Barzal will be an interesting case as the young center saw his numbers drop off after an amazing rookie campaign as the 22-year-old got more attention from top defenders without John Tavares to protect him. While his goals only dropped by four (18) last year, he saw his assist numbers slip from 63 to 44. However, many people feel that Barzal should take that next step and establish himself as top-line center. While the Islanders can only hope that this will happen, it could also prove to be costly for New York as Barzal will be wrapping up the final year of his entry-level contract and could be in line for a major deal as the youngster is likely keeping a close eye on all the unsigned restricted free-agents on the market currently.

The Islanders have quite a bit of talent in the system and several of their top picks from 2018 could be ready to contribute this season. Wahlstrom, the 11th-overall pick, played well in his one season at Boston College, but looked even more impressive in a short showcase with the Bridgeport Sound Tigers of the AHL. He played five regular season games, scoring two goals, but added another two goals and four points in five playoff games. Dobson, the team’s 12th-overall pick last season, could be ready to take a key spot in the Islanders defense.

While the defense could add Dobson this season, another addition could be Toews who looks to be ready for an increased role with the Islanders. The 25-year-old put up 18 points in 48 games last season and looks ready to contribute.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

G Thomas Greiss ($3.33MM, UFA)
F Matt Martin ($2.5MM, UFA)
D Ryan Pulock ($2MM, RFA)
F Derick Brassard ($1.2MM, UFA)
F Tom Kuhnhackl ($850K, UFA)
D Devon Toews ($700K, RFA)

While Robin Lehner received all the attention for his stellar play in goal, Islanders’ fans were just as pleased with the play of Greiss, who just a couple of years ago was considered to have an untradeable contract. However, no one is complaining after Greiss put up impressive numbers last year. The 33-year-old had a .927 save percentage and a 2.28 GAA in 43 appearances and should be a key piece for New York in his final year, although with several prospects getting closer to being NHL ready, this is likely to be his last year with the Islanders.

The 24-year-old Pulock continued to improve his game, especially offensively. He finished the season with nine goals and 37 assists, which is impressive considering the team’s offense dropped off quite a bit since the 2017-18 season as the defenseman continues to work on his defensive game. He could be prime for another big contract if he can take his game to another level.

Islanders general manager Lou Lamoriello is a big believer in a veteran bottom-six and has done well with both Martin and Kuhnhackl as well as Brassard, who the team signed recently and could always get a new contract if they continue to perform well.

Two Years Remaining

F Casey Cizikas ($3.35MM, UFA)
D Adam Pelech ($1.6MM, UFA)
F Michael Dal Colle ($700K, RFA)
F Tanner Fritz ($700K, UFA)

The 28-year-old Cizikas had a breakout season last year. Not only did he finally break the double-digit barrier, he actually reached 20 goals. The hope is that Cizikas can repeat that success as he is expected to continue playing on the team’s impressive fourth line. The team also has hopes that Dal Colle can win a regular spot. The 23-year old got a 27 game trial, scoring three goals and seven points last season.

The defensive minded Pelech has been a solid player for the Islanders and is quite a bargain at $1.6MM. Perhaps the top left-handed defenseman, he has received solid minutes and should continue to get good minutes this season. The team

Three Years Remaining

D Johnny Boychuk ($6MM, UFA)
D Nick Leddy ($5.5MM, UFA)
F Cal Clutterbuck ($3.5MM, UFA)
F Leo Komarov ($3MM, UFA)
D Thomas Hickey ($2.5MM, UFA)
F Ross Johnston ($1MM, UFA)

At age 35, the team will be paying for Boychuk’s late years and there does seem to be a decline in his play as both his ATOI and his points dropped. On the positive, his 74 games played is the most he’s played since he was with the Bruins back in 2013-14. However, he saw his minutes drop by almost two per game and picked up just 19 points last season. That could mean a reduced role for the veteran this season as he could slide outside the top four and move into a bottom-pairing role. The 28-year-old Leddy, however, continues to play well as he broke the 20-minute mark for the fifth-straight season. His offense, however, took a hit as he only tallied 26 points after three straight 40-point seasons, but with a defense-first philosophy, that might not be surprising. The team also has high hopes that Hickey, who missed quite a bit of time due to an upper-body injury, will stay healthy this season. The two-way blueliner will be a key addition for the team, but he will have to earn his playing time, especially if Dobson makes the roster out of training camp.

With Cizikas and Martin, Clutterbuck gives the Islanders a physical and offensive fourth-line that is one of the best in the league and the 31-year-old has been putting up 200-plus hits 10 of the last 11 years and is expected to continue that success. Komarov also has put up big hits (203), giving the team quite a bit of physicality for the next few years.

Four Or More Years Remaining

F Anders Lee ($7MM through 2025-26)
F Brock Nelson ($6MM through 2024-25)
F Jordan Eberle ($5.5MM through 2023-24)
F Andrew Ladd ($5.5MM through 2022-23)
G Semyon Varlamov ($5MM through 2022-23)
F Josh Bailey ($5MM through 2023-24)
D Scott Mayfield ($1.45MM through 2022-23)

Lamoriello was busy this offseason, signing four of these long-term deals this summer. The team was hoping to steal Artemi Panarin from the New York Rangers at the last minute, but when that fell through, the team immediately locked up their captain to a seven-year deal. Lee posted solid numbers, scoring 28 goals and 51 points, while showing off a plus-20 rating on the ice. Nelson, who many believed was the most likely to bolt the Islanders, surprised many by signing a six-year deal at $6MM after career-high 53 points and netted four goals in eight playoff games last year. Eberle was another key signing as the team committed five years and $5.5MM per season to him despite a down year where he had just 37 points, one of the lowest numbers of his career. However, a strong playoff performance might have been enough to prove his worth after he tallied four goals and nine points in eight playoff games.

The team made a shocking move this offseason when they opted not to keep the fan-favorite Lehner and instead signed Russian goaltender Semyon Varlamov away from Colorado. One reason for that was because the team still hopes to convince top Russian goalie prospect Ilya Sorokin to come to the U.S., which might be easier with Lehner out of the way and a veteran countryman in place to ease him into the NHL. However, Varlamov has the potential to be quite successful with the Islanders’ defensive system. He has been quite successful over the years, but has had to deal with many injuries as well.

Bailey may be one of the better deals the teams has. The pass-first winger put up another solid season, putting up 16 goals and 56 points and added four goals in the playoffs and is a key player on the team’s top-six. On the other hand, Ladd may have the contract that looks the worst on the team. The 33-year-old veteran continues to deal with injury issues. This time, the veteran only appeared in 26 games, putting up just three goals for the team. He put up a 23-goal season back in the 2016-17 season, but the team rewarded him with a seven-year, $38.5MM deal, which so far looks like a disaster after he has scored just 15 goals in two seasons and isn’t likely to get the minutes he needs to make that deal look decent.

Buyouts

None

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Salary Cap Recapture

None

Still To Sign

F Anthony Beauvillier

This will be a key year for Beauvillier once he signs. A 2015 first-round pick, the 22-year-old winger struggled in a top-six role last year, putting up 18 goals and 10 assists and he must show that he can take his game to another level. He likely will command some kind of bridge deal to prove his value to the franchise as he hasn’t necessarily shown enough to warrant a long-term deal. However, if he can’t show that he belongs on the top-six, he could find himself falling to the third line soon.

Best Value: Bailey
Worst Value: Ladd

Looking Ahead

The Islanders put all their eggs in one basket this summer. Lamoriello had all the cap space he needed to shape the franchise any way he wanted, but in the end, he brought back almost all of his key unrestricted free agents and has committed to keep his team. The team broke all expectations last season as few expected the team to even make the playoffs, let alone sweep their first-round opponent. Regardless, the belief that under head coach Barry Trotz, the team will continue to get better and battle for a Stanley Cup for the next few years. The team has committed to its core and now have to hope that their farm system can continue to develop their young players and add to the Islanders team for the next few years.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Deadline Primer: New York Islanders

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With the trade deadline fast approaching, we continue our look at the situation for each team over the coming weeks. Where do they stand, what do they need to do, and what assets do they have to fill those needs? As we continue with the Metropolitan Division, here is a look at the New York Islanders.

The New York Islanders are under new management and new general manager Lou Lamoriello has made a name for himself over the years with numerous big deals at the trade deadline during his time with New Jersey and Toronto. The question is whether Lamoriello intends to making a big move with his team being atop the Metropolitan Division.

The team has a core of pending unrestricted free agents who Lamoriello may or may not bring back next season and a number of impressive prospects that are either on the team or sitting with the Bridgeport Sound Tigers of the AHL and has plenty of cap space to work with. Besides Mathew Barzal, the team still lacks a defining core to work and could use another big-name player or two to give the team several faces to the franchise, which is where the deadline could come in. The real question is do the Islanders want to take the chance of possibly damaging the chemistry the team has created so far this year under head coach Barry Trotz.

Record

35-17-6, first in the Metropolitan Division

Deadline Status

Serious to moderate buyer

Deadline Cap Space

$46.12MM in full-season cap hit, 0/3 used salary cap retention slots, 45/50 contracts per CapFriendly

Upcoming Draft Picks

2019: NYI 1st, CAL 2nd, NYI 5th, NYI 6th, NYI 7th
2020: NYI 1st, NYI 2nd, NYI 3rd, NYI 4th, NYI 5th, NYI 6th, NYI 7th

Trade Chips

The team has a number of players it could package to a team for a big-name player as the team has five significant players who are approaching unrestricted free agency in the summer, including Jordan Eberle, Brock Nelson, Anders Lee, Valtteri Filppula and goaltender Robin Lehner. That doesn’t mean the team has any intention of trading even one of those players. That also doesn’t mean the team won’t let them walk away in free agency either. In fact, there is little known about what the team intends to do before next season and knowing what we know about Lamoriello, the team will make significant changes to their team before the start of next season. However, if Lamoriello intends to make a deal, those five could potentially be part of any package. One interesting storyline is Lehner, who is having a comeback season after struggling greatly in Buffalo and dealing with alcoholism. However, does the franchise feel that he is worthy of a long-term deal or could Lehner be used to work out a deal for a Sergei Bobrovsky?

The team also has a number of young players who could be sent out as well, including Michael Dal Colle, Kieffer Bellows, Joshua Ho-Sang, Otto Koivula, and Sebastian Aho to name a few and that doesn’t even include the talent they still have sitting in the junior ranks. Bellows could be a significant trade chip as the team’s 2016 first-rounder has had significant success on his way up, but has also had some struggles. He currently has 11 goals as a rookie in the AHL. Ho-Sang, who has showed some offensive flair over the years, hasn’t put it all together and has struggled with his attitude. One other significant asset the team has is a significant amount of cap space and the team could be willing to take on a bad contract or two if that can net them another talent.

Five Players To Watch For: F Keiffer Bellows, F Jordan Eberle, F Joshua Ho-Sang, G Robin Lehner, F Brock Nelson

Team Needs

1) Franchise Player: Other than Barzal, the team lacks that face-of-the-franchise player at the forward position who can take over games for the next eight years. The team does have Josh Bailey under contract for a few more years, but the rest of the top-six will have to be written, whether that includes re-signing some of their own unrestricted free agents or whether they attempt to trade for a player like Artemi Panarin, Matt Duchene, Mark Stone or even someone like Bobrovsky in net.

2) Upgrade on defense: The interesting thing about the Islanders’ defense is that it went from being one of the worst defenses in the league in the 2017-18 season as they allowed 3.57 goals per game (31st in the league) and suddenly the team has totally turned that around in 2018-19 as they have allowed just 2.29 goals per game (first in the league). And that’s with almost no changes on defensive personnel. The team lost defenseman Calvin De Haan, but basically returned the same group from the previous year. Obviously, much of the credit should be given to Trotz, but at the same time, the team needs to consider adding to that defense and improving its blueline like acquiring a Alec Martinez from Los Angeles or Cody Ceci from Ottawa.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Anders Lee Named Captain Of New York Islanders

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The New York Islanders were one of several teams to lose their captain this summer after John Tavares left for the Toronto Maple Leafs, but they’re no longer without a leader. The team today named Anders Lee as the 15th captain in team history, while announcing that Josh Bailey, Cal Clutterbuck and Andrew Ladd will serve as alternates this season.

This announcement follows the news that the Islanders and Lee are discussing a long-term extension, and likely signals that a deal will happen before Lee becomes an unrestricted free agent at the end of the year. With the turnover the organization has had on the ice, behind the bench and in the front office, naming a player captain only to see him walk out the door a few months later would be tough to swallow.

Lee, 28, has evolved into one of the best goal scorers in the league in recent years, recording 34 and 40 in the past two seasons. The big winger can do a little bit of everything on the ice, and should be able to ride shotgun with Mathew Barzal for many years at the front of the New York offense. There were few who saw this coming when Lee was selected in the sixth round in 2009, but his fall was more because of the competition he had faced playing in the Minnesota high school circuit than anything he’d done on the ice. Lee dominated in high school and kept that production going through his year in the USHL and a three-year career at Notre Dame, where he became one of the best forwards in the country.

It’s hard to argue with this choice for the Islanders unless a contract isn’t reached, as Lee is an emotional leader on the ice and should be the one head coach Barry Trotz can lean on to spark his team. While Barzal may be the future superstar center for the Islanders, Lee will be asked to lead this team back to the playoffs and try to contend for the Stanley Cup. Ladd, a former captain himself, will be there along the way to help out along with Bailey and Clutterbuck who have been integral parts of the roster for years.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

The Contract Each Team Would Most Like To Trade: Part II

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Nearly every team has one of those players: a top talent they were excited to sign and never thought could do anything but help them. In hindsight, history shows that more often than not, expensive, long-term free agent contracts don’t work out. It may look good at first (or it may look bad right away to the outside observer), but players struggle to make their value last throughout a lengthy contract. Those contracts come back to bite teams and are hard to get rid of. As teams begin to finalize their rosters at this point in the off-season, many are struggling to make everyone fit under the salary cap and are regretting these past signings that exasperate a cap crunch that can be tough for even a mistake-free club. We already took a look at the first third of the league; here are the contracts that each team would most like to trade, from Detroit to Ottawa:

Detroit Red Wings: Frans Nielsen – four years, $21MM remaining

As speculated by some readers in the comments section, it was no mistake that Part I ended with Dallas. Detroit deserved both some extra consideration and to lead off an article about poor contracts. There is an argument to be made that almost every single player age 28 and over on the Red Wings roster is signed to a bad contract for one reason or another. Detroit is a team that ranks towards the bottom of the standings and towards the top of the salary cap and that is not just bad luck. However, some are much worse than others and they are so bad that it is tough to choose between them. Take this scenario: Player A scored 35 points in 75 games last season. It was 14 points more than the season prior, including six more goals, and Player A also led the team in hits. He is 31 years old and signed for five more years at $4.25MM per. Player B scored 33 points in 79 games last season. It was eight points less than the season prior, and Player B also had the worst face-off percentage among the team’s centers. He is 34 years old and signed for four more years at $5.25MM per. Still undecided about which contract the team would rather trade? Player A is a Michigan native and career Red Wing and Player B is entering only his third year after signing a lucrative free agent contract. Player A of course is perennial whipping boy Justin Abdelkader. Yes, the Abdelkader contract is terrible. At no point in his career has he been worth his current contract value. Yet, he improved last season, is younger and brings a defensive element to his game, and is also loyal to the current administration – the call of the question after all is which contract the team would most like to trade. That would instead be Player B, Frans Nielsen, who at 34 is predictably declining and last year made more than Abdelkader for less production and there is no reason to believe that trend won’t continue. The team rewarded Adbelkader for years of service, whereas they took a gamble on Nielsen that hasn’t paid off. One of those moves is far more regrettable. Nielsen is the guy, but he only narrowly edged out Abdelkader and defenseman Danny DeKeyser, who also has relative age and Detroit roots to his advantage.

Edmonton Oilers: Milan Lucic – five years, $30MM remaining

The Oilers can refute trade rumors surrounding Milan Lucic all they want. The truth of the matter is that GM Peter Chiarelli signed Lucic hoping that he could both produce with and protect Connor McDavid in Edmonton as he did for David Krejci in Boston. The only problem is that the 30-year-old power forward can no longer keep up with a player of McDavid’s caliber. Lucic managed to score 34 points last season, tied for fourth on the team, but that is nowhere near what is expected of a $6MM player, especially when he scored 50 in year one with the Oilers and topped that mark many times with the Bruins. Edmonton still may be holding out hope that Lucic can turn it around and be just as much of a scoring threat as he is a physical threat, but make no mistake that the team would be quick to get rid of his contract if the right deal came along. In contrast, the team would be far more hesitant to move a hefty contract like defenseman Andrej Sekera who has been good and injury-prone, rather than healthy and underwhelming.

Florida Panthers: Roberto Luongo – four years, $18.13MM remaining

Florida is a tough one. Dale Tallon has done a good job of locking up his core long-term and, despite being right up against the cap, there are few egregious contracts on the roster right now. Give it a few years and maybe Michael Matheson will hold this title, but for now it goes to Roberto Luongo by default. Of course, Luongo is beloved in Florida and the team doesn’t even have to carry the whole of his cap hit, with the Vancouver Canucks retaining $800K each year. However, the reality is that Luongo will turn 40 this season and it will be only the first of four years left on his deal. The Panthers have almost $8MM committed to two goalies for the next few years and the other, James Reimer, is younger and outplayed Luongo in 2016-17 and in more games to boot. While they both fought injuries this past season, it was Luongo back on top performance-wise, but the impressive numbers he did post came in just 35 appearances versus Reimer’s 44. Florida paying over $4.5MM per year to a backup goalie in his forties just doesn’t make sense and the team would be better off moving forward with just Reimer and Michael Hutchinson if they could find a way to trade Luongo. Another reason this contract is bad: both the Panthers and Canucks will be hit with cap recapture penalties if Luongo retires prior to 2022.

Los Angeles Kings: Dustin Brown – four years, $23.5MM remaining

For the first time in years, Kings fans are feeling good about Dustin Brown. That is why now is the perfect time to trade him. Brown had been the bane of L.A.’s existence for four years, registering no more than 36 points each year while eating up $5.875MM in cap space, when he finally broke out of his funk in 2017-18 with a massive 61-point season and one of the league’s best plus/minus ratings. The question now is whether the past four years were an aberration with this season setting a new baseline or will Brown regress back to his bottom-six production. With a cap-strapped roster full of expensive contracts for older players, L.A. can’t take the risk of keeping Brown around if the right opportunity presents itself. They would be forced to trade the career King if a taker came forward rather than hold out hope that he doesn’t revert back to his old ways of being drastically overpaid.

Minnesota Wild: Zach Parise – seven years, $52.77MM remaining

When the Wild signed 28-year-old’s Zach Parise and Ryan Suter to matching 13-year contracts worth almost $100MM apiece, they knew that those deals would have dark days at some point in the future. However, they never could have imagined that Parise’s decline would come so soon. Parise remains one of the most popular players on the team, but injuries have kept him off the ice and affected his play when on the ice over the ice and his stock is falling quickly. Parise has never been able to reach the peaks he enjoyed in New Jersey, but he still produced at a high level over his first four seasons with the team. The past two years have been a different story and Parise appears to be trending in the wrong direction. Now 33, Parise isn’t totally beyond help and could turn it around. If back at 100%, Parise has enough natural ability and enough talent around him to still be a $7.5MM player. However, it would be nearly impossible for Minnesota to ever move the behemoth that is his contract so, if somehow they received an offer, they would take it without a second thought. Fan favorite or not, there is too much risk associated with Parise moving forward.

Montreal Canadiens: Shea Weber – seven years, $55MM remaining

I know what you’re thinking and yes, the Carey Price contract doesn’t look great right now. However, an extension of any length and value for any player coming off an injury-riddled season would bring a skewed perception. Price has been one of the best goalies in the league for years and one bad season doesn’t change that. Will he lose that title in the next eight years? For sure, but it would be a shock to see the Canadiens move their poster boy any time soon. Their #1 defenseman is another question though. When Montreal acquired Shea Weber for P.K. Subban, they never could have anticipated that his body would break down so soon after. Injuries cost Weber all but 26 games last season and he will miss the beginning of 2018-19 as well. Weber doesn’t seem like the type of player who will retire early, but there is no guarantee that these injuries won’t slow him down significantly for the remainder of his contract. In fact, the only guarantee is that he will slow down over the next seven years. At $7.86MM, the Canadiens need Weber to be his dynamic two-way self. The team already has one overpaid stay-at-home defenseman in Karl Alzner and can’t afford another. If they could move Weber, they would.

Nashville Predators: None

GM David Poile flat out doesn’t sign bad contracts. Criticize the deals for Ryan Johansen and Kyle Turris if you like, but the bargain contracts throughout the rest of the lineup have allowed Poile to overpay for reliable centers and that is a team-building model that anyone can get behind.

New Jersey Devils: Corey Schneider – four years, $24MM remaining

The easy answer is that the Devils don’t feel any pressure to trade anyone on the roster. They currently have the lowest payroll in the league with nearly every player signed to a fair deal. Those who are overpriced – Travis Zajac and Andy Greene – play important leadership role and the only player signed to a substantially long-term deal is electric young blue liner Damon Severson. The one and only player that sticks out as a potential long-term cap problem is starting goaltender Corey Schneider. This may surprises some; after all Schneider trails only Tuukka Rask among active save percentage leaders. Schneider had been elite since arriving in New Jersey, but something started to change in 2016-17. His SV% fell to .908 and his GAA inflated to 2.82 and then things only got worse last season with a SV% of .907 and a GAA of 2.93. He was also limited to just 40 appearances this year and was outplayed by journeyman Keith Kinkaid. The Devils can’t count on Kinkaid to repeat his 2017-18 performance moving forward and if Schneider’s back-to-back bad years are more than a fluke, they can’t depend on him for four more years either. He’s not going to be a $6MM backup either. New Jersey will give Schneider the time he needs to return to form, but they may not hesitate if the right trade comes their way as well.

New York Islanders: Andrew Ladd – five years, $27.5MM remaining

The Islanders without John Tavares are a totally different animal. A six-year, $30MM extension for Josh Bailey now looks bad. A $5.75MM cap hit this season for free agents Leo Komarov and Valtteri Filppula signed to make up for Tavares’ lost production looks bad. The likes of Cal Clutterbuck, Casey Cizikas, and Matt Martin now look worse on a team that needs more offense and less grit. However, the one contract that looked miserable well before Tavares bolted to Toronto is Andrew Ladd and it is only going to get much worse. The veteran forward was intended to find chemistry with Tavares when he was signed to a seven-year, $38.5MM contract two years ago. Instead, Ladd has just 60 points over the past two seasons combined and has by all accounts been relegated to a bottom-six role. The 32-year-old will now be asked to take a bigger role in Tavares’ stead and that is a scary proposition. The Islanders aren’t in any cap trouble, but the team should be thinking rebuild and would likely take any offer at all to rid themselves of Ladd.

New York Rangers: Brendan Smith – three years, $13.05MM remaining

Has any free agent contract in recent memory soured as quickly as Brendan Smith’s? Smith signed a four-year deal with the Rangers last June and was expected to play a top-four role for the team for years to come. By February, he had been placed on waivers and buried in the AHL. Smith played in only 44 games with New York and saw less and less ice time as the season wore on and he continued to turn the puck over at an alarming rate and cost his team goals. Now what? One would assume that Smith will be given a second chance this season, but the relationship between he and the team may be beyond repair. There is no doubt that the Rangers would take a re-do on that deal and would move him if possible. Marc Staal is another player that New York wouldn’t mind moving, but as a player who can eat minutes and provide solid play most of the time, his $5.7MM contract seems like nothing next to Smith’s $4.35MM deal.

Ottawa Senators: Bobby Ryan – four years, $29MM remaining

No contract in the league has become as notorious for being labeled a “bad deal” that the team is desperate to trade like Bobby Ryan’s. The Senators are so determined to move on from Ryan that they are trying to force Erik Karlsson trade suitors to take the overpaid forward as well. At one point in time, $7.25MM per year for Ryan seemed like a fair deal. At 23 years old he was a 71-point player with the Anaheim Ducks and even after moving to Ottawa, Ryan started his tenure with three straight seasons in the 50-point range. However, the last two years have been very different. Ryan has only suited up for 62 games in each campaign and has looked like a different player on offense. At his best, he looks disinterested and lucky to be in the right place at the right time and at his worst he costs his team goals. Ryan has managed to register only 58 points combined over the past two years; he had 56 alone in 2015-16. Ryan may just need a change of scenery to jump start what used to be dynamic goal-scoring game, but the Senators don’t care about that. All he is to them is a waste of cap space and of owner Eugene Melnyk’s dwindling wealth. They want him gone at any cost.

Look out for Part III of this three-part series early next week…

 

Islanders Must Focus On Moving Forward After Tavares

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When the New York Islanders lost John Tavares, the franchise found itself in a worse situation than it had hoped. The team that struggled a year ago on defense and in goal now lost their top scorer and seem to lack identity (except in the front office). The team will likely make Calder Trophy winner Mathew Barzal the new face of the franchise, but without Tavares, there remains a significant hole in their lineup.

While it seems likely Barzal will replace Tavares as the team’s top center, the real question is who will take over as the team’s No. 2 center? One positive note for New York is that the team has almost $20MM in available cap space after Tavares opted to go to Toronto and that’s after the signings of Valtteri Filppula, Leo Komarov, Robin Lehner and Tom Kuhnhackl as well as trading for Matt Martin. Regardless, none of those players are candidates to fill that No. 2 center position. The team does have restricted free agent Brock Nelson as a candidate to fill that role, but his status is up in the air.

The Athletic’s Shayna Goldman (subscription required) suggests if the Islanders want to make some type of impact move to suggest to their fan base that they are ready to move on (because bringing in Filppula, Komorov, Kuhnhackl, Lehner and Martin didn’t accomplish that), they must look to the trade market where there are a number of interesting names that the team could look to acquire, especially at the center position to show they are moving forward.

The top name is interesting enough as Goldman suggests that New York looks at the Ottawa Senators who are looking to cast off players left and right. Already having moved on from Mike Hoffman and in current trade talks with Erik Karlsson, the scribe writes the Islanders could attempt to make an offer to pry centers Matt Duchene or Jean-Gabriel Pageau away.

While Duchene would probably cost the Islanders quite a bit, he could potentially be a reasonable replacement for Tavares. Even though Ottawa gave up a lot to acquire Duchene less than a year ago, they may be ready to move on from him as he will be a free agent after this season and he might not want to return after having to endure the many problems that Ottawa has dealt with in the past year. However in New York, the team could match him with players like Anders Lee, Jordan Eberle or Josh Bailey and get solid production from him and the team would have the cap room to lock him up. The only downside to acquiring Duchene (despite the likely high cost) would be the team would have to sign him as well as Lee and Eberle next season as all three would be unrestricted free agents for the 2019-20 season. Pageau would be a much cheaper option, but lacks much upside if they want to use him as a second-line center.

One other option would be to pry Tyler Johnson away from the Tampa Bay Lightning, especially with the team attempting to clear out cap space to accommodate Karlsson. Johnson would provide significant value as a second-line center as well, but is locked up for six years at $5MM AAV, so they would be able to hold onto him for a long time.

While finding a replacement for Tavares, the team must also attempt to fix their other issues as they’ve done little to address their defense or goaltending. Adding Robin Lehner helps a little, but after the 26-year-old suffered through a disastrous season (3.01 GAA and a .908 save percentage), a Lehner-Thomas Greiss combination doesn’t sound particularly thrilling. The defense also needs help. The team lost Calvin de Haan to Carolina, although they did bring back Thomas Hickey. Although the team has high hopes that Ryan Pulock is ready to move into a top-four role immediately, his defense has always been suspect, so he isn’t likely to improve the Islanders defensive deficiencies. Andrew Gross of Newsday writes that the team should consider looking into acquiring Justin Faulk from the Carolina Hurricanes as he would provide that stability and would look good as the No. 1 piece along with Hickey, Pulock, Johnny Boychuk and Nick Leddy.

Regardless, with few quality options available to them on the free agent market, the team likely has little choice to make a deal.

 

 

Snapshots: Vanek, Tavares, Matthews

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Thomas Vanek is probably the most likely player to be traded from the Vancouver Canucks in the next few days, and yet there remains a chance he could re-sign with the team instead. Speaking with Iain MacIntyre of Sportsnet, Vanek explained he’d love to play another year with Daniel and Henrik Sedin, but they haven’t given him an answer about their future yet.

Obviously, there is also the option of trading him this weekend only to re-sign him in the summer when he becomes a free agent. Vancouver already brought back Erik Gudbranson, their other top rental option, and don’t seem poised to really be big sellers at the deadline. Vanek brought in a third-round pick last season for the Detroit Red Wings, and could likely fetch a similar price if Vancouver decides to shop him around.

  • After Josh Bailey was re-signed to a six-year contract this morning, many pointed out how it might help the New York Islanders re-sign his linemate John Tavares. The Islanders were making it clear that they wanted to keep this group together and were committed to winning. Not so fast, says John Shannon of Sportsnet, who tweets that the signing will “not have any effect” on the Tavares negotiations, and that the captain will still wait until after the season is over to make a decision.
  • Auston Matthews suffered damage to his shoulder last night, and will be out for “a bit” according to head coach Mike Babcock. Chris Johnston of Sportsnet details how the Toronto Maple Leafs plan on dealing with the loss of their superstar center, and notes that the team will not change their approach to the trade deadline.

Josh Bailey Close To Long-Term Extension With New York Islanders

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The New York Islanders have some of the biggest names scheduled for free agency this summer, but now you can take one off the list. The team has reached a six-year extension with Josh Bailey that will carry an annual average value of $5.0MM.

Josh BaileyBailey was ranked #6 in our midseason free agent power rankings, and has done nothing to justify moving him from that spot over the last month. The 28-year old forward is in the midst of an outstanding season, already setting his career-high in points with 62 through his first 57 contests. That includes 47 assists, good for fifth in the entire NHL behind only Jakub Voracek, Blake Wheeler, Johnny Gaudreau and Claude Giroux. His point total itself puts him among the top-20 in the NHL, and had been setting him up for a huge ask on the free agent market.

The Islanders originally drafted Bailey ninth-overall back in 2008, but he didn’t quite break out until last season when he recorded 56 points. He’s become a perfect fit for John Tavares, the biggest fish that the Islanders are trying to get under contract before July 1st. They have to be hoping that retaining Bailey will help those contract negotiations when they begin in earnest, though we likely won’t get a read on that until the season is over.

For the time being, Bailey will be happy with the substantial raise on his 2017-18 $3.3MM cap hit. He could be giving up a little bit of money, but will now get to stay with the only organization he’s ever known for the majority of his career. The Islanders will get an excellent playmaker for the foreseeable future, one that can likely find a home alongside Mathew Barzal if Tavares doesn’t stick around.

Bob McKenzie of TSN was first to report a deal was close, giving us the salary parameters.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Which Teams Would Have Flexibility In Another Expansion Draft?

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Midway-through the 2017-18 NHL season, it is nearly impossible to predict what rosters could look like following the 2019-20 season, more than two years away. Trades, free agency, and much more shape teams often in ways that no one sees coming. With that said, it seems like another Expansion Draft is coming to add the league’s 32nd team, the Seattle __________, and the timeline most are suggesting is a June 2020 draft date. Like it or not, the general managers of the other 31 NHL need to be keeping that in the back of their mind with each move they make over the next two seasons.

However, it could be that some have already made decisions that could impact their roster protection plans more than two years from now. The structure of the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft will the remain the same, allowing for teams to protect seven forwards, three defensemen and one goalie or eight skaters regardless of position and one goalie from being selected. The one caveat that threw more than a few teams for a loop last June was that all players with No-Movement Clauses (NMC) in their contracts had to be protected, unless the players voluntarily chose to wave them i.e. Marc-Andre Fleury. So, with that one aspect of the expansion process in mind, it is possible to look ahead at certain long-term contracts to see, assuming those players don’t waive them ahead of time, who could be locked in for protection in 2020 or which teams will have more flexibility without any such players:

Total Flexibility

Arizona Coyotes (0) – The only NMC players on the Coyotes are defensemen Alex Goligoski and Niklas Hjalmarsson. Hjalmarsson will be a free agent in the summer of the projected Expansion Draft and Goligoski’s clause will have shifted to a Modified No-Trade Clause. Arizona will likely have complete flexibility.

Buffalo Sabres (0) – Kyle Okposo’s NMC expires after this season and Jason Pominville’s contract expires after next season. Buffalo won’t have any restrictions on their protection scheme as of now.

Calgary Flames (0) – There is no one on the roster with a NMC and no one that will predictably get one by the end of the 2019-20 season. Kudos to GM Brad Treliving.

Los Angeles Kings (0) – Kings’ captain Anze Kopitar in their only NMC player right now and even his clause will have shifted to No-Trade by 2020. L.A. is free and clear.

Nashville Predators (0) – GM David Poile does not seem to be a fan of NMC’s in his recent long-term deals and in the new NHL expansion era, that’s a good thing.

New Jersey Devils (0) – see Calgary Flames

New York Islanders (0) – The Andrew Ladd and Johnny Boychuk contracts already look bad for the Isles. They would be much worse if their NMC’s didn’t expire soon. With John Tavares and Josh Bailey both candidates for NMC’s should they re-sign in New York and a defense that needs a re-haul, the Islanders could lose some flexibility, but they should be fine.

Toronto Maple Leafs (0) – The Leafs have no NMC players under contract beyond 2019-20 right now. That could easily change with Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, and William Nylander in need of extensions, but Toronto should still be in a good spot. After all, those are players that would protected regardless.

Vancouver Canucks (0) – Loui Eriksson’s NMC shifts to a No-Trade Clause following this season and will be an afterthought by 2020. It’s fortunate, as Eriksson’s tenure in Vancouver has not gone according to plan.

Vegas Golden Knights (0) – The Golden Knights didn’t sign or trade for any players with NMC’s and only drafted two – Marc-Andre Fleury and David Clarkson – who already had them and they both expire before the Knights would be set to become the NHL’s second-newest team. With that said, the current Knights’ roster will see a lot of turnover in the next two years and they may struggle to avoid NMC’s completely.

Washington Capitals (0) – GM Brian MacLellan has avoided NMC’s in any of his recent mega-deals. If he can do it again this summer in his attempt to re-sign (or replace) John Carlson, then the Caps will be in good shape for another round of expansion drafting.

Winnipeg Jets (0) – The NMC in Bryan Little’s contract will both kick in and expire between now and June 2020. The Jets should be left with a fully flexible lineup.

Some Flexibility

Boston Bruins (2) – There’s little concern that Brad Marchand and Patrice Bergeron will still be playing at a high level in two years. Their NMC’s should be a non-factor for Boston. If David Krejci and, especially, David Backes still had their NMC’s too at that time, there would be a real logjam up front. However, both will have shifted to Modified No-Trade Clauses by then, potentially saving the Bruins from making tough decisions about their many talented young forwards.

Carolina Hurricanes (1) – As important a job as he’s had in Carolina, Jordan Staal will never be the star forward that finally puts them over the top. If his NMC causes a problem in 2020, he could easily be traded to a contender to play a complementary role. The Hurricanes need to retain as many promising young forward assets as they can in hopes of one day finding that true superstar.

Colorado Avalanche (1) – There are mixed opinions on Erik Johnson, but he has a leadership role for the Avalanche and will be key in grooming a strong crop of up-and-coming defensive prospects. The Avs won’t lose sleep about having to protect him in expansion, especially if he’s still one of their top-pairing guys in two years.

Columbus Blue Jackets (1) – The Blue Jackets were one of the biggest losers in the most recent Expansion Draft. They might be smart to sell off Nick Foligno if there’s any risk that history repeats itself.

Dallas Stars (3) – Call it optimism about his play in his first season in Dallas, but the NMC for Alexander Radulov doesn’t seem like it will be a major issue even after a couple more years. Of course, Jamie Benn’s NMC will also be a non-factor. Ben Bishop on the other hand may not be the goalie the Stars would prefer to keep in two years. As of now, there’s no immediate competition though.

Detroit Red Wings (1) – Detroit only has one NMC player who will still be under contract in 2020-21 (and another season after that), but it’s Frans Nielsen, who has been a major disappointment for the team since coming over from the New York Islanders. He could throw a wrench in their plans if he continues his downward trend over the next two seasons.

Minnesota Wild (2) – The Ryan Suter and Zach Parise mega-deals will still be making an impact in 2020, but with most of the core locked up throughout that season and no other NMC contract likely on their way, Minnesota should be okay in the Expansion Draft.

Montreal Canadiens (2) – Even if the Canadiens continue to struggle through two more seasons, there will be few Habs fans that blame superstar goalie Carey Price. His NMC won’t be an issue because the team would never dream of leaving him exposed. Jeff Petry on the other hand could be a problem. Luckily (?), it doesn’t look like Montreal will have many defenders worth protecting even in the next couple of seasons.

Ottawa Senators (2) – Some things never change. The NMC’s for Bobby Ryan and Dion Phaneuf were problems for the Senators in this past Expansion Draft and they’ll likely be problems again next time around. If Phaneuf is traded between now and then, that alleviates some concern for Ottawa. Good luck moving the Ryan contract though.

Philadelphia Flyers (1) – Only Claude Giroux has and predictably will have an NMC come June 2020. That’s a pretty safe situation for Philly.

San Jose Sharks (1) – Marc-Edouard Vlasic plays a confident, stay-at-home defensive game that often ages nicely. He looks to be the only NMC in San Jose in 2020, which shouldn’t cause a stir.

St. Louis Blues (1) – Patrik Berglund will be on the wrong side of 30 and still under a NMC when the potential 2020 draft rolls around, but with the rest of their core signed long-term without NMC’s, the Blues should be pretty safe.

Tampa Bay Lightning (2) – Steven Stamkos and Victor Hedman may be the two safest NMC contracts in the NHL. Fortunately, Ryan Callahan’s otherwise-problematic NMC expires just prior to projected 2020 Expansion Draft.

Little Flexibility

Anaheim Ducks (3) – Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf, and Ryan Kesler will all be 35+ and still be NMC-protected in 2020. That’s a large chunk of your protected forwards to dedicate to players in the twilight of their careers. Some up-and-coming young talent could leave Anaheim again in this next Expansion Draft a la Shea Theodore.

Chicago Blackhawks (4) – The downside to signing all of your core players to long contracts with NMC’s could hit the Blackhawks hard in the next Expansion Draft. Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews will be well past 30 and Brent Seabrook and Duncan Keith will be in their mid-to-late 30’s during the 2020-21 season, but all four will need to be protected ahead of that season, which could force other promising younger players out of Chicago’s protection scheme. At least they’ll narrowly avoid having an issue in net with Corey Crawford’s contract expiring prior.

Edmonton Oilers (2) – Milan Lucic and Kris Russell. Each two years older than they are now. Those aren’t exactly players that a team wants to be forced to keep. It’s foreseeable that one or both could have a negative impact on the team’s protection plan.

Florida Panthers (3) – The Panthers probably won’t mind having three players locked up come Expansion 2.0. The team knew what they were doing when they signed Keith Yandle long-term. Even in his mid-30’s, Yandle will be a reliable player and a leader for the young Florida defensive core. Sure, they considered asking him to waive his NMC this past June, but they never actually did. Yandle won’t be a major issue in two years unless his play falls off considerably. There should be no concern whatsoever over Jonathan Huberdeau and Aleksander Barkov, whose NMC’s kick in later on in their contracts. The same might not be true about Evgeni Dadonov, whose been somewhat underwhelming so far in Florida, but luckily his contract runs out just prior the probable draft date.

New York Rangers (4) – Although they will have near total control over their forwards, outside of Mika Zibanejad, the Rangers could be in a tough position with their protection schemes in net and on the blue line in 2020. Then-38-year-old Henrik Lundqvist will require protection, as will underachieving defensemen Kevin Shattenkirk and Marc Staal. New York is apparently readying themselves for somewhat of a rebuild, which could mean some of those players are traded beforehand. Otherwise New York could face quite the dilemma.

Pittsburgh Penguins (4) – It seems unlikely, even years from now and in their mid-30’s, that the NMC’s for Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, or Phil Kessel would cause trouble for the Penguins. Injury-prone defenseman Kris Letang could be different though. Being forced to protect him after another two seasons of hard minutes could be difficult to swallow. Pittsburgh also has some work to do filling out the forward corps between now and 2020. GM Jim Rutherford would be well-served to avoid acquiring or handing out any further NMC’s.

All-Star Skills Competition Assignments Released

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With the All-Star game one day away, many NHL fans often get more excited for the 2018 GEICO NHL All-Star Skills Competition, which will be tonight. The NHL released the list of who will be participating in each of the six competitions with the winner of each receiving $25K.

Enterprise NHL Fastest Skater – Each skater is timed for one full lap around the rink.
Brayden Point (Tampa Bay Lightning)
Zach Werenski (Columbus Blue Jackets)
Rickard Rakell (Anaheim Ducks)
Noah Hanifin (Carolina Hurricanes)
Josh Bailey (New York Islanders)
Nathan MacKinnon (Colorado Avalanche)
Jack Eichel (Buffalo Sabres)
Connor McDavid (Edmonton Oilers)

Dunkin Donuts NHL Passing Challenge – Requires three skills over one round, including Target Passing (making four passes to a target that light up randomly), Give-and-Go (must complete four successful passes through a course in the neutral zone) and Mini Nets (must complete four passes over barricades and into mini-nets).
Nikita Kucherov (Tampa Bay Lightning)
Claude Giroux (Philadelphia Flyers)
Brayden Schenn (St. Louis Blues)
Oliver Ekman-Larsson (Arizona Coyotes)
Eric Staal (Minnesota Wild)
Alex Pietrangelo (St. Louis Blues)
Kris Letang (Pittsburgh Penguins)
Drew Doughty (Los Angeles Kings)

GEICO NHL Save Streak – Goalies attempt to win by making the most consecutive saves against an opposing division on a minimum of nine shots.
Henrik Lundqvist (New York Rangers) vs. Central Division
Connor Hellebuyck (Vancouver Canucks) vs. Pacific Division
Pekka Rinne (Nashville Predators) vs. Metropolitan Division
Marc-Andre Fleury (Vegas Golden Knights) vs. Atlantic Division
Andrei Vasilevskiy (Tampa Bay Lightning) vs. Central Division

Gatorade NHL Puck Control Relay – A timed event that involves three skills, including Stickhandling (where a skater must control a puck through a series of eight pucks in a straight line), Cone Control (where a skater controls a puck through a series of eight cones in a zig-zag formation) and Gates (where a skater must shoot or choose to guide the puck through a lighted rung of a gate).
Johnny Gaudreau (Calgary Flames)
Aleksander Barkov (Florida Panthers)
Erik Karlsson (Ottawa Senators)
John Tavares (New York Islanders)
Connor McDavid (Edmonton Oilers)
Auston Matthews (Toronto Maple Leafs)
Tyler Seguin (Dallas Stars)
Patrick Kane (Chicago Blackhawks)

PPG NHL Hardest Shot – Over two rounds, each player will attempt two shots measured in miles per hour with the highest speed recorded.
John Klingberg (Dallas Stars)
Alex Ovechkin (Washington Capitals)
P.K. Subban (Nashville Predators)
Brent Burns (San Jose Sharks)
Steven Stamkos (Tampa Bay Lightning)

Honda NHL Shooting Accuracy – A timed event in which a skater is positioned 25 feet behind the goal line and must shoot at five LED targets in the goal. A target will light up and the players has three seconds to hit it.
Brian Boyle (New Jersey Devils)
Blake Wheeler (Winnipeg Jets)
James Neal (Vegas Golden Knights)
Brock Boeser (Vancouver Canucks)
Brad Marchand (Boston Bruins)
Anze Kopitar (Los Angeles Kings)
Sidney Crosby (Pittsburgh Penguins)
Steven Stamkos (Tampa Bay Lightning)

Eastern Notes: van Riemsdyk, Price, Ho-Sang

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While the Toronto Maple Leafs find themselves in an interesting cap situation in the future, the team seems to be content with making a playoff run and using their trade deadline assets in James van Riemsdyk, Tyler Bozak and Leo Komarov as “own rentals” instead. All three players will be unrestricted free agents next season and it seems unlikely that all three will be retained.

While the team may be able to find a way to keep one or two of the free agents, there is a lot of speculation that the team is unlikely to be able to extend van Riemsdyk due to the scorer’s likely high contract demands this summer and their own cap situation, The Athletic’s James Mirtle (subscription required) asks the question whether it’s a good idea to lose the veteran wing for nothing. The in-depth story begins by looking at van Riemsdyk’s value as he currently has 19 goals in 47 goals and is on pace for one of his best seasons ever. Breaking down the numbers, Mirtle suggests that the team could easily afford the 28-year-old for the first two years of a deal, but complications will come after that when the team must start extending their young stars in Auston Matthews, William Nylander and Mitch Marner. That doesn’t even get to the thought the team might want to bring in a big-name defenseman at some point.

No matter how you look at it, the scribe writes, there is no easy way to fix the problem. He writes the team should have moved van Riemsdyk a year ago to have gotten the true value they needed, but can’t move him now when the team is poised for a playoff run. It seems clear the team intends to invest elsewhere in the future and will have to fill the veteran’s place from within.

  • Eric Engels of Sportsnet writes that Montreal Canadiens goaltender Carey Price said that he was suffering from chronic fatigue at the beginning of the season and couldn’t recover his energy after games and practices. “I was always tired,” Price told TVA Sports. “A guy who eats well and sleeps well like me isn’t supposed to be tired like I was.” After seeing a nutritionist, it turned out he had vitamin deficiencies in vitamin D and B12. Once taking supplements, Price said it took about three weeks before he began to see an improvement in his energy levels. Before being injured on Nov. 2, Price had a 3-7-1 record and a .877 save percentage.
  • Newsday’s Arthur Staple writes that while the New York Islanders have made a number of moves, bringing up players from the Bridgeport Sound Tigers to help the team, many fans have noticed that prospect Joshua Ho-Sang has not been among them. That’s because, according to head coach Doug Weight, Ho-Sang is not trying very hard in the AHL. He was a healthy scratch with the AHL squad last week with finger-pointing towards his lack of effort. “It’s a crying shame he’s not playing with John Tavares when (Josh Bailey) goes down,” Weight said. “We had six guys out. It was a perfect opportunity. And Josh should be upset with himself. Whether our view of the world is wrong is something we can argue later. But the fact is, we need to be able to look at how some guys are laying it on the line [in Bridgeport] and he’s a healthy scratch. So to go from that to the first lineup here, where is he learning from that? That’s a big, big part of this.” Ho-Sang has five goals and 10 assists in 20 games with Bridgeport.

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