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NHL Draft Lottery Notes: Odds, History, Viewing

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For the fourteen teams that missed the playoffs and the expansion Vegas Golden Knights, they have one thing in common: they’re hoping Bill Daly is holding a card with their logo on it, announcing that they have the first overall pick.

At 7pm central, NBC, CBC, and Sportsnet will show the NHL Draft Lottery as the Colorado Avalanche lead all teams in terms of percentage for receiving the #1 pick. Below are the odds:

Colorado Avalanche — 18.0%
Vancouver Canucks — 12.1%
Vegas Golden Knights — 10.3%
Arizona Coyotes — 10.3%
New Jersey Devils — 8.5%
Buffalo Sabres — 7.6%
Detroit Red Wings — 6.7%
Dallas Stars — 5.8%
Florida Panthers — 5.4%
Los Angeles Kings — 4.5%
Carolina Hurricanes — 3.2%
Winnipeg Jets — 2.7%
Philadelphia Flyers — 2.2%
Tampa Bay Lightning 1.8%
New York Islanders — 0.9%

TSN has a lengthy writeup on the history of the lottery and how the current format differs from other versions. The biggest change for the draft is that instead of the worst team being guaranteed, at worst, a second overall pick, they are only promised a top four pick. This was placed to discourage teams from “tanking” to draft top-end talent, which hasn’t completely negated the idea of tanking as Toronto won the right to draft Auston Matthews last season with the #1 pick while securing the worst record in the NHL.

What’s new to 2017?  From Sportsnet:

For just the second time in NHL draft lottery history, the top three picks are in play. This rule was implemented by the league in 2016 to dull incentive for any team to finish lower in the standings (i.e., tanking).

The odds of winning the second and third draws increases on a proportional basis depending on which team claimed the previous draw.

The addition of a 15th lottery team, Vegas, into the mix also affects the winning percentages.

This draft is different too, since the top two picks for the first time in three seasons are not considered the “generational talent” that Connor McDavid, Jack Eichel, Matthews or Patrik Laine were when looking back at the one and two overall picks respectively.

This isn’t to besmirch the top two candidates, Nolan Patrick or Nico Hischier. After all, “can’t miss” prospects have fooled scouts and analysts before while prospects that scouts didn’t think were as good sometimes exceeded expectations.

But before the talent can be chosen, there needs to be an order. Tonight will determine that.

Specifics: 

Time: 7pm CST
Where to watch: CBC, Sportsnet, NBC

How Did The Top Five Picks In The 2016 Draft Class Fare?

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As the importance of drafting and developing talent takes precedence in a hard cap league, PHR takes a look at how the first five picks from the 2016 NHL Draft fared nearly a calendar year after their selection.

#1: Auston Matthews – Toronto Maple Leafs

It almost seems silly writing about him since the Calder Trophy nominated center has been one of the major reasons the Leafs made the playoffs and have given the Capitals fits. Matthews had 69 points in 82 games (40-29) and was everything the Leafs could have hoped he would be. Matthews scored four goals in his debut, and though he had his share of rookie struggles, looked wise beyond his very young age on the ice. Already in the playoffs, Matthews has four points in five games in the playoffs (3-1) and will certainly lead this team to a contender status in the years to come.

#2: Patrik Laine – Winnipeg Jets

Hardly a consolation prize, Laine is also a Calder Trophy finalist and finished the season with 64 points (36-28) but it was individual performances that garnered attention. Laine registered three hat tricks this season, and in a strictly point-per-game glance, Laine led Matthews and every other rookie this season.  Should Winnipeg improve their fortunes, Laine has the game breaking ability to take a talented team deep into the playoffs.

Oct 19, 2016; Winnipeg, Manitoba, CAN; Toronto Maple Leafs center Auston Matthews (34) chases Winnipeg Jets right wing Patrik Laine (29) during the third period at MTS Centre. Winnipeg won 5-4 in overtime. Mandatory Credit: Bruce Fedyck-USA TODAY Sports

#3: Pierre-Luc Dubois – Columbus Blue Jackets

One of only two players in the top ten to not spend time with the big club, Dubois split time with Cape Breton and Blainville-Boisbriand in the QMJHL. He didn’t disappoint. Combined, the left winger had 55 points in 48 games (21-34) and has been dynamic in the President’s Cup playoffs, posting 14 points (5-9) in 11 games. The Armada are currently in the semi-finals against Charlottetown (trailing 1-0), and if his current performance is any indication, Dubois could find himself breaking camp with the Blue Jackets next fall.

#4: Jesse Puljujarvi – Edmonton Oilers

Puljujarvi was sent down in early January after making the team out of camp, and his numbers in Bakersfield were respectable: 28 points (12-16) in 39 games and the opportunity to play real minutes instead of playing limited time in Edmonton. Puljujarvi appears to be a rising star, and the extra seasoning should help. His play will continue as he was loaned to Finland’s national team to play in the World Championships.

#5: Olli Juolevi – Vancouver Canucks

Juolevi spent the season with the London Knights, racking up 42 points (10-32) in 58 games. His point total matched his 2015-16 results, with the exception of adding a goal. Juolevi scored the game winning goal in the first round of the OHL playoffs against Windsor that sent the Knights onto the second round, where they ultimately lost to Erie in seven games. During their 14 game run, Juolevi had eight points (3-5). The smooth puck moving defenseman was the first blueliner taken in the draft, and could be a candidate to make the team next year as the Canucks will be retooling their roster with more youth.

NHL Names Calder Trophy Finalists

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The NHL released the Calder Trophy finalists for the 2016-17 season, reports Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman. The finalists for the NHL’s rookie of the year award are: Winnipeg Jets forward Patrik Laine, Toronto Maple Leafs forward Auston Matthews, and Columbus Blue Jackets defensman Zach Werenski.

Most hockey minds agreed that the Calder race was between Laine and Matthews, with outside runs by Werenski, Toronto Maple Leafs forwards William Nylander and Mitch Marner, and Pittsburgh Penguins goaltender Matt Murray. It was a tough year to be a skilled rookie as many impressive performances were overshadowed by Laine’s and Matthews’ excellent season.

Matthews finished the season with 40G and 29A in 82 games, breaking the Maple Leafs record for most goals by a rookie. 32 of those goals came on 5-vs-5, usually centering a line with rookies Zach Hyman and Connor Brown. Matthews averaged .84 points per game

Finnish rookie Laine scored 36G and 28A in 73 games while suffering a concussion midway through the season, and 27 of those goals were even-strength. Laine finished with .88 points per game.

Rounding up the trio is Blue Jackets defenseman Werenski. The American-native scored 11G and 36A in 78 games for the Blue Jackets while averaging just under 21 minutes a night. Werenski manned the second-pairing for Columbus, and quarterbacked the first-line powerplay.

Any of the above three would be well-suited to win the award. Matthews lived up to the expectations of a first overall pick, Laine excited Winnipeg crowds with his laser shot, and Werenski provided maturity beyond his years as a rookie defenseman on the NHL’s most surprising team. Fans will find out who won on June 21, 2017 when the NHL hosts its annual award show in Las Vegas, Nevada.

 

Golden Knights Expansion Roster Will Be Revealed At NHL Awards

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The NHL announced today that the 2017 NHL Awards will return to Las Vegas for an eighth straight year on Wednesday, June 21 at the T-Mobile Arena and this year will include Las Vegas like it never has before. The NHL plans to incorporate the NHL Expansion Draft into the festivities as it will announce the 30-player roster that the Las Vegas Golden Knights select in a two-hour broadcast.

The show, which will air at 7:30 p.m. ET on NBCSN in America and in Canada on Sportsnet, is expected to put quite a bit of emphasis on the new expansion franchise, highlighting majority owner Bill Foley, general manager George McPhee, new head coach Gerard Gallant and even highlight some of the players the Golden Knights will select.

NHL Awards and nominations for the awards will begin being revealed day-by-day, starting tomorrow with the Selke Award. Here are a list of some of the top awards and potential nominees:

Selke Trophy (nominations will be out tomorrow) — It should be a tight race, but the leading candidates for the forward who best excels in the defensive aspects of the game come down to a handful, including Anaheim’s Ryan Kesler, Washington’s Niklas Backstrom, Boston’s Patrice Bergeron and possibly even Calgary’s Mikael Backlund.

Calder Trophy (nominations to be released Thursday, April 20) — The trophy that goes to the top rookie is almost guaranteed to go to Toronto’s Auston Matthews, but other possible candidates include Winnipeg’s Patrik Laine, Pittsburgh’s goaltender Matt Murray and Columbus’ Zach Werenski.

Norris Trophy (nominations to be released Friday, April 21) — The top defenseman award will come down to a few including the Senators’ top blueliner Erik Karlsson, Lightning’s Victor Hedman and Sharks’ veteran Brent Burns.

Vezina Trophy (nominations to be released Saturday, April 22) — The top netminder award falls to a few including Columbus’ Sergei Bobrovsky, Washington’s Braden Holtby and Minnesota’s Devan Dubnyk.

Other nominees that will be announced before the June 21 awards include Lady Byng Trophy on Sunday, April 23; Masterton Trophy on April 24; NHL Foundation Player Award on April 25; Jack Adams Award on April 26; Mark Messier Leadership Awards on April 27; Hart Trophy on May 1 and the Ted Lindsay Award on May 2.

Byfuglien Out; Laine Questionable For Jets

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The Winnipeg Jets will be without at least one star player when they host the Vancouver Canucks on Sunday night.

Head coach Paul Maurice announced that defenseman Dustin Byfuglien is out with a lower-body injury (LBI) sustained on Thursday, while rookie sniper Patrik Laine is “feeling under the weather” and is a game-time decision.

Byfuglien left Thursday’s loss to the Kings with an LBI and subsequently missed Friday’s loss to the Ducks. He’s been solid for the Jets this season, with 48 points in 74 games while averaging over 27-minutes per night. It’s not known exactly what the injury is or how long he’ll be out of the lineup.

Missing Laine for any extended period of time would be a big loss for the Jets; he has 34 goals and 61 points in 67 games as a rookie. While he’s been quiet lately (2-1-3 in his last nine games), he’s still been one of the best rookies in the NHL. Both Laine and Auston Matthews have 34 goals and 61 points, but Laine has played in seven fewer games. He’ll need a strong finish to earn the Calder Trophy for top rookie season. The team will make the call around 4pm ahead of the 7pm puck drop.

While the Jets have not been mathematically eliminated from the playoff race just yet, it would take an absolute miracle for them to make up the 13-point gap in their seven remaining games. They need to run the table while St. Louis loses out. Barring that unlikely situation, the Jets will miss the playoffs for the third straight season.

Will The 2017 Draft Class Be Better Than People Think?

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FanRag Sports’ Hannah Stuart pens an article wondering if the 2017 NHL Draft class is actually not as bad as many think it will be. Coming off two drafts with all-world talents–Connor McDavid and Jack Eichel in 2015 and Auston Matthews and Patrik Laine in 2016–anything less of that type of talent would be considered “worse” by definition. Clouding judgement has been the lack of what many analysts believe to be at least one generational player, and a muddled class after the first seven-eight players in most mock drafts. But is it a fair assessment?

Stuart cites ESPN’s Corey Pronman, who put together his ranking of the prospects and even wrote in his opening paragraph that its one of the weakest drafts in the cap era. He goes as far as to say it’s in the same category of the 2011 and 2012 drafts, which in his opinion, didn’t yield much in the way of top tier talent. Pronman lists Halifax’s Nico Hischier as his top prospect, with Brandon Wheat Kings center Nolan Patrick second and Mississauga’s Owen Tippett third. Pronman does write that it’s essentially a toss-up as to who can be the #1 overall pick in the draft–Hischier or Patrick, and that whoever is taken first will be a benefit to his new team.

Looking at the two drafts that Pronman mentioned, the 2011 did feature a slew of players chosen in the top 10 who have been productive in the NHL. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins went first overall, and while he hasn’t produced in the way that Matthews or McDavid have, many analysts (and fans) blame his development by the Oilers as a culprit for his stunted growth. Other notables in the 2011 draft–by draft order–are Gabriel Landeskog (#2), Jonathan Huberdeau (#3), Adam Larsson (#4), Ryan Strome (#5), Mika Zibanejad (#6), Mark Scheifele (#7) Sean Couturier (#8), Dougie Hamilton (#9), and Jonas Brodin (#10). There are a number of strong players in the ten, and while viewed as a “weaker” draft, it at least paid dividends for those teams that drafted them–or acquired them later via trade.

It thins out from there, but there were certainly notables later in the first round or later in the draft. Brandon Saad was taken in the second round by the Blackhawks and he was clutch for Chicago until they were forced to deal him away due to cap issues.

Mar 10, 2016; Saint Paul, MN, USA; Edmonton Oilers forward <a rel=2012’s draft was somewhat weaker one-through-ten, but saw some return in the middle of the first round, namely with Filip Forsberg being taken 11th by the Capitals. Nail Yakupov was taken first by the Oilers, and he certainly hasn’t been the players the Oilers envisioned–but again, that may go back to development questions. Hampus Lindholm (#6) and Jacob Trouba (#9) are the headliners of a defensive heavy top ten. But a look through the rounds and it’s pretty telling that the 2012 edition was not only weaker than 2011, but possibly one of the weakest in the salary cap era.

Stuart makes an extremely important point about drafting: it’s a crapshoot.

A player can make a bad first impression or be a weak skater and be completely written off by certain scouts. However, maybe that player has an excellent hockey IQ, and a team recognizes that and drafts them in a later round. If the team works with them to fix the deficiencies in their skating, there’s every chance they could develop into an effective NHLer. On the other hand, let’s take what we’ll call the Oilers model. A team might consistently draft high, taking players who show elite skill and throwing those players into the NHL before they’re ready rather than taking time to develop weaknesses in their game.

Stuart continues to argue that since the drumbeat has been steady in saying this draft class will be weak, it’s been all but believed by those on the internet. But as she points out, it isn’t so much the drafting as much as it is the development and scouting staff that every team employs.

Forgotten Futures: Checking In On Picks 3-5

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While Auston Matthews and Patrik Laine have dominated many of the headlines around the NHL since the moment they put on their respective sweaters on June 24th, 2016 there were other names picked that day that have received much less attention. Matthew Tkachuk has burst onto the scene in Calgary, recording an incredible 41 points in his rookie season (including more assists than either of the top 2) while Jakob Chychrun has steadily improved in the desert and is now logging 20 minutes a night as an 18-year old.

There were three other names taken between Laine and Tkachuk, and though their respective fan bases surely haven’t forgotten about their prized assets, drooling over the potential they bring while combing through box scores—that is if anyone combs through box scores anymore—the rest of the league might have. As we head past the trade deadline many teams look towards the future, hoping for a brighter sunrise next season and looking at comparables for their expected draft position this summer.

5th Overall Pick – Olli Juolevi (VAN)

The first defenseman picked in the draft was Olli Juolevi from the London Knights. The smooth skating defender that was heralded as a future #1 who could play in any situation has had an excellent, if a little underwhelming season for the Knights in 2016-17. Playing on a great team in front of a great goaltender, Juolevi has continued to rack up assists while being a main part of one of the stingiest defensive teams in the OHL. The Knights have allowed just 165 goals this season and Juolevi is one of the reasons why.

With 39 points in 49 games, he continues to produce in junior hockey, though a little less can be said about his performance at the World Juniors. Captaining a Finnish squad that was without almost all of their key players—including one we will speak of later—Juolevi didn’t impress much through the preliminary round. After his coach got fired midway through the tournament, Juolevi stepped up a bit but still finished with just two points in six games.

It’s hardly enough to judge him on, but Vancouver Canucks fans were likely hoping to see him take over the tournament all by himself and drag the Finnish team to the medal round. They should however be excited about the prospect that London will be in the OHL playoffs starting later this month, where Juolevi will try for a second crack at the Memorial Cup.

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Deadline Primer: Detroit Red Wings

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With the trade deadline now just weeks away, we’re taking a closer look at each team.  Where do they stand, what do they need to do, and what assets do they have to fill those needs?

It’s been quite the purgatory for the Detroit Red Wings. Mike Ilitch, who transformed the Dead Wings into a four time Stanley Cup Champion, passed away on Friday. As if losing the owner who many current and former players considered to be a father figure wasn’t enough, the Wings 25-year playoff streak may end at a quarter century. Struggling to piece wins together, Detroit has a historically bad power play, a team besieged by injury, and a horrible return on investment from several players inked to expensive, long term deals.

For the first time since the early 90’s, the Red Wings are sellers. And yet, while it looks that the playoffs are slipping away, general manager Ken Holland may “stand pat” instead of selling off assets.

Record

22-24-10; 54 points. Last in the Atlantic; Last in the Eastern Conference.

Deadline Status

Seller

Deadline Cap Space

Current Cap Space: $0 ($8.3MM with LTIR relief)
Deadline Cap Space: $0 ($8.3MM with LTIR relief)
46/50 contracts, via CapFriendly

Draft Picks

2017: ( 9 Total) DET 1st, DET 2nd, DET 3rd, TOR 3rd, DET 4th, DET 5th, DET 6th, FLA 6th, DET 7th
2018: 7 Total) DET 1st, DET 2nd, DET 3rd, DET 4th, DET 5th, DET 6th, DET 7th.

Trade Chips

Mar 29, 2016; Montreal, Quebec, CAN; Detroit Red Wings forward <a rel=There are a number of players to choose from but topping the list is Thomas Vanek, who has been linked to the Chicago Blackhawks among other teams. Should he stay healthy (he’s currently battling an ankle injury), he could fetch some prospects or a draft pick. Mike Green has been another name, though he seems less likely to be moved as the Wings are trying to upgrade on the blue line–and he has been good for them this season. Gustav Nyquist and Tomas Tatar were also mentioned, targets by the Chicago Blackhawks. Petr Mrazek, though it seems odd since he has struggled and was just signed to a deal in the offseason, could also be shopped. Finally, Brendan Smith, in the final year of a contract, could be moved as well.

Team Needs

1) #1 defenseman. Good luck. Almost every team in the NHL seeks that top pair defenseman, the Red Wings truly haven’t had one since Nick Lidstrom retired. Worse, their young defensemen have regressed while the veterans are broken down versions of their once steady selves (Niklas Kronwall comes to mind). The problem in getting the top pairing defenseman they seek is two fold. First, only a young player with team control could garner the top d-man, be it Anthony Mantha, Dylan Larkin, or Andreas Athanasiou. But those are players the Red Wings aren’t willing to give up. Second, the salary cap situation is a mess being that Holland has handed out expensive, long-term contracts to players like Justin Abdelkader, who hasn’t scored a goal since November. To add and retain a top pair defenseman, a team needs salary cap space. The Wings are in trouble for years to come unless they can shed those contracts. Until the Red Wings fix the blue line, their slide will continue and only get worse.

2) An elite, generational player. In all of the seasons for the Red Wings to fall off, it would be the season where there isn’t a clear cut one and two option. Connor McDavid, Jack Eichel, Auston Matthews and Patrik Laine were all clear cut options in the last two drafts. Now? While Nolan Patrick, Nico Hischier, and Tim Liljegren are all great options, scouts are having a hard time agreeing on a clear cut favorite. Holland could trade draft picks and players to go after former top picks, like Matt Duchene, Nathan MacKinnon or Gabriel Landeskog, but that seems pretty far fetched. Plus, Holland has been gun shy during the Cap era when it comes to trades. But this year’s draft is not as certain as in previous seasons, and that doesn’t bode well for a team who desperately needs a top tier talent to get back on the right track. Larkin, Mantha, and Athanasiou are great starts as building blocks, but they are at least one, if not two, generational players away from getting back to the top of the hockey world again.

Jets Notes: Pavelec, Laine, Perreault, Stanley

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Ondrej Pavelec’s return to the NHL has been a successful one so far as he has reeled off a pair of wins for the Jets since being recalled last week.  As Mike Sawatzky of the Winnipeg Free Press writes though, he’s not thinking ahead towards next season and if he could be more than just a short-term stopgap for Winnipeg:

“I’m not thinking about next year — at all.  I don’t know what’s gonna happen. I’m gonna be a free agent, I guess, for the first time. I have no idea what I’m gonna do. There’s no point, there’s no reason to think about next year. Whatever happens, happens.”

Pavelec is in the final year of a five year, $19.5MM contract and while it’s unlikely he’ll be able to command a new deal near that same $3.9MM AAV, he should be able to catch on as a backup somewhere.  Although the Jets have youngsters Connor Hellebuyck and Michael Hutchinson in the fold beyond this season, both have battled inconsistency which has led some to believe that a veteran number two would be a good idea for Winnipeg to play behind Hellebuyck.  The 29 year old Pavelec should get a chance in these final few months to make his case that he could be that veteran.

Other notes from Winnipeg:

  • The team is hoping high scoring rookie winger Patrik Laine will be available to play the Sharks on Tuesday, Sawatzky notes in a separate column. He has missed the last seven games after sustaining a concussion on January 7th against the Sabres.  Head coach Paul Maurice wouldn’t say for sure if Laine will return but said he is “very, very close”.
  • After a slow start that was compounded by a lower body injury that caused him to miss 14 games, left winger Mathieu Perreault is starting to round back into form, writes Ken Wiebe of the Winnipeg Sun. After recording just eight points in his first 25 games, he has picked up eight more in his last ten outings alongside Bryan Little and Blake Wheeler.  Perreault is a popular choice to be left unprotected in June’s expansion draft and accordingly, some have wondered if the team will try to trade him even though he signed a four year, $16.5MM extension back in July.  If he continues his current stretch over the next month, the Jets could have some options when it comes to moving him if they decided to go that route.  [Update: Perreault sustained an upper body injury tonight against Anaheim, the team reports via Twitter.]
  • 2016 first rounder (18th overall) Logan Stanley will miss the next four months after undergoing surgery to repair a torn meniscus in his right knee, the Windsor Spitfires (his junior team) announced. Not only will that end his regular season, it also should keep him out of the lineup through the playoffs and will leave his participation in the Memorial Cup in question as well.  The Spitfires get an automatic entry into the Canadian junior tournament as they are the hosting team.

Patrik Laine Returns To Ice, Still No Timetable For Return

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Some good news for Winnipeg Jets fans this morning: Patrik Laine skated this morning.

It was the first time Laine has skated since suffering a concussion earlier this month. Despite the good news, head coach Paul Maurice re-iterated that “there is no time-frame” for his star rookie’s return. When asked about how the young left winger looked, Maurice said Laine looked fantastic, but jokingly complained that “his shot is off.”

Laine was concussed in a head-on-head collision with Sabres defenseman Jake McCabe back on January 7. McCabe also took some damage in the hit. TSN analyst and former NHLer Shane Hnidy reported that Laine will be monitored daily to “determine progress going forward.”

Laine had been having a tremendous offensive season before being hurt; he had 21 goals and 37 points in 42 games. At the time of the concussion, Laine was tied for third in league goal scoring with Auston Matthews. While Matthews has passed Laine by one goal and one point, Laine’s offensive numbers have been very impressive. Laine and Matthews appear to be two of the frontrunners for the Calder Trophy, provided Laine is able to return soon and continue scoring at the same pace.

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