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Mark Stone

Matt Duchene To Be Patient With Next Career Move

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Much has been made of the dwindling core of the Ottawa Senators. Erik Karlsson and Mike Hoffman are gone, Craig Anderson is nearing retirement, and the teams top three forwards are impending unrestricted free agents – that would be Mark Stone, Matt Duchene, and Ryan Dzingel. Given the current state and direction of the team, it has been estimated by many that all three could opt for the open market next summer. Stone took a direct approach to those rumors this week, stating that he loves Ottawa and wants to remain with the Senators.

As TSN’s Frank Servalli writes, Duchene is not so eager to decide one way or the other on his future. Earlier this off-season, Duchene said that an extension is something that he would definitely consider, but wanted to see how things go this year. Since then, it has gone from bad to worse in Ottawa with the departure of key players, as well as ownership and the front office committing to a rebuild. It seems very unlikely that the season will go well for the Senators, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that it will sour Duchene on sticking around. Duchene called last year a “disaster”, both personally and for the Senators and is looking for a fresh take this season. In his first full season with the team, Duchene’s individual performance and his fit in the locker room and in Ottawa’s long-term plan is instead what will likely dictate his next move. Duchene appreciates being close to home in Ottawa and could cherish a role as a leader with the Senators. Then again, polarizing owner Eugene Melnyk has been apprehensive about awarding expensive contracts and Duchene could decide after a strong season that he has a much better chance at getting market value and finding a winning situation with another team.

Sens fans would love to hear that Duchene is committed to the team, and sooner rather than later. After all, Ottawa gave up quite the package to acquire him from the Colorado Avalanche early last season, including what could turn out to be the top overall pick in next year’s entry draft. However, given their recent rash of bad luck, those same fans would rather Duchene be patient with his decision than be yet another player hoping to be dealt away. Unlike Stone, who – after going through the arbitration process – may not re-sign until after January 1st, Duchene is eligible to ink an extension already. Just don’t expect a decision any time soon, though.

Snapshots: Stone, Panthers, Olofsson

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As if being an Ottawa Senators fan wasn’t hard enough right now, a report surfaced this morning that suggested Mark Stone wanted out of the city when his contract expired at the end of this season. Stone settled with the Senators this offseason on just a one-year deal that will pay him $7.35MM this season and qualifies for unrestricted free agency on July 1, 2019. The 26-year old forward was asked about the report after practice today, and denied it vehemently.

I love it here. This has been a great month for me, I’ve enjoyed my previous four years here and I want to continue to be here. 

As a player you’re looking to win every time you step on the ice. No matter who you’re playing with, no matter who’s in the lineup you have to look at it the same way. Obviously [the Senators front office] has said they’re rebuilding, but I think for the guys in this locker room we’re looking to win hockey games and looking to win as many as we can.

Stone could potentially be one of the very best forwards available on the open market next summer if he decides not to re-sign with the Senators, and can’t actually put pen to paper on a contract extension until January 1st, 2019. Even if he is enjoying things right now, it’s a dangerous situation for the Senators to be in given their expected struggles this season. Still, Stone has never said anything to make Ottawa believe that he wouldn’t be willing to stay and was even in discussions on a long-term deal this offseason at one point.

  • Not only do the Florida Panthers have a new captain in Aleksander Barkov, but today they announced their entire leadership group. Keith Yandle, Aaron Ekblad, Vincent Trocheck and Jonathan Huberdeau will all wear an “A” as alternate captains at various times this season, solidifying that group of five as the core of the team going forward. Among them, only Yandle is older than 25 while Barkov and Ekblad are still just 22 and 23 respectively, giving the Panthers a chance to keep most of the group together for a long time. In fact, all five are signed through at least the 2021-22 season and should help Florida return to the playoffs at some point in the next few years.
  • Michael Russo of The Athletic (subscription required) is reporting that Gustav Olofsson has suffered another shoulder injury, and there is fear that it is serious. Olofsson underwent an MRI yesterday, but there has been no update from the team as of yet. The 23-year old defenseman played 41 games for the Wild last season and could have perhaps battled for a full-time spot had he not suffered the injury. Selected in the second round five years ago, Olofsson has been limited by injury throughout his professional career and will hope for good news this time around.

Poll: How Many Pending UFAs Will Stay With Ottawa?

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The Ottawa Senators made waves last night when they released a bizarre marketing video that seemed intended to settle down fans and sponsors upset with the direction of the team. Owner Eugene Melnyk and defenseman Mark Borowiecki discussed the roster, and how it may look completely different over the next 12 months. Melnyk even went so far to say there will be 10 “new”—rookies or players who played around ten games last season—on the roster this season and 15 or 16 in 2019-20. While that seems difficult to pull off for the 2018-19 season given the veteran group that is there right now, perhaps there is huge turnover coming in the next few weeks and months.

When looking at the Senators salary structure, there is certainly a few things that stick out. Only Bobby Ryan is signed for more than three seasons, and just Marian Gaborik and Zack Smith are even under contract that long. Almost the entire roster is set to hit unrestricted free agency in either 2019 or 2020, meaning there is a good chance they could have a much different looking group down the line.

That different look though is predicated on the idea that the Senators won’t re-sign any of their pending free agents. While Erik Karlsson seems like he’ll be gone soon and at the very least won’t be re-signing with Ottawa, Mark Stone and Matt Duchene have both remained open to the idea. Beyond them though are other key players like Ryan Dzingel and Chris Wideman, both scheduled for unrestricted free agency in 2019.

So how many of those pending UFAs will stick around? Vote below for all the players who you believe will re-sign with the Ottawa Senators before the beginning of the 2019-20 season. Leave your comments on where you think they are heading below!

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Ottawa Senators Preparing For Huge Roster Turnover

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Late last night after much of the hockey news had died down for the day, the Ottawa Senators released a video of defenseman Mark Borowiecki and owner Eugene Melnyk discussing the future of the organization. Touching on subjects from dressing room leadership to overcoming the low expectations for 2018-19, Melnyk made clear he would be staying with the franchise for a long time and will not move it from Ottawa. He also noted an interesting point about roster construction, explaining how quickly the rebuild will get underway:

This coming year we’re going to have 10 out of the 22 players are going to be new. Meaning they’re either rookies or they’ve played maybe under 10 games last year. Then the following year, it’s going to go up to about 15 of the 22, maybe 16. So that’s a total turnover you know, which is exactly what should be in a rebuild. 

Stripping your roster down to the studs and letting a group of young players grow and mature together is often a strategy for struggling teams who want to rebuild, and the Senators saw a similar situation play out just down the road in Toronto a few years ago. In fact, when the Maple Leafs traveled to Ottawa to open the season in 2016 they had seven rookies in the lineup including Auston Matthews, who scored four times despite the loss. That would appear to be the blue print for Melnyk and the Senators as they look to pull a similarly speedy rebuild.

The question though becomes how do they achieve the goal of having 10 rookies on the roster at the beginning of the year. The team currently has at least 19 players—Mark Stone, Bobby Ryan, Matt Duchene, Zack Smith, Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Ryan Dzingel, Tom Pyatt, Magnus Paajarvi, Max McCormick, Colin White, Marian Gaborik, Erik Karlsson, Cody Ceci, Chris Wideman, Ben Harpur, Thomas Chabot, Craig Anderson, Mike Condon and Borowiecki—who played more than 10 games for the organization last season and should at the very least be battling for roster spots. While perhaps Melnyk was exaggerating and players like White and Chabot would still be considered “rookies” given their relative youth and inexperience, it seems likely that there will be substantial turnover in the rest of the group.

We’ve heard for months that Karlsson may be on the block, speculation that will only increase given his complete absence from this video, but other players including Stone and Duchene are both heading into the final years of their contracts and could be shipped out for prospects and picks. If the Senators are committed to a full scorched earth rebuild, they are powerful assets in trade.

At the very least, we should expect the Senators to be involved in trade talks all season. Even though Melnyk and Borowiecki seem excited about playing the underdogs this year, the amount of roster turnover that the owner mentions isn’t possible without some transactions coming through the pipe quickly. Camp starts in just a few days and Senators rookies should be licking their chops on the opportunity that is apparently there for the taking.

Atlantic Notes: Pacioretty, Luongo, Boedker

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If Montreal Canadiens captain Max Pacioretty is being genuine about wanting to stay in Montreal for the rest of his career, the team has a lot of thinking to do whether the 29-year-old winger is worth a long-term deal. Sure, he had posted five straight 30-goal seasons (if you don’t include the strike-shortened 2012-13 year), but after a 16-goal campaign last season and the fact that he’ll be 30 when he starts his new contract, there are a lot of variables that the Canadiens need to consider after the team handed goaltender Carey Price an eight-year, $84MM extension a year ago that’s already starting to look questionable and it hasn’t even started yet.

One obvious way for things to work out perfectly would be if Pacioretty can rebound and put up another banner season. Another 30-goal performance would undoubtedly make the 2017-18 season look like a fluke and would make it a whole lot easier to sign him to a new contract, according to Montreal Gazette’s Pat Hickey. However, the scribe also points out that he must improve on his mental game as well as Pacioretty has a tendency to be streaky and get down on himself when he’s not producing. It’s likely, if the veteran captain can’t make that adjustment, he’ll be heading out of town just like Andrei Markov, Alexander Radulov and P.K. Subban did in past years.

  • NHL.com’s Kevin Woodley writes that veteran goaltender Roberto Luongo is focusing more on his health this year after two injury-plagued campaigns that has kept him out of 89 games. The 39-year-old goaltender, who will turn 40 during the season, still has four years remaining on the 12-year, $64MM deal he signed with Vancouver in 2009. He has spent more than 90 minutes a day of extra time with goaltending coach Robb Tallas, focusing on his surgically repaired hip from 2016 and the groin tear he sustained last season. “Back in the day, I used to show up half an hour before I went on the ice and just throw the gear on, but these are the things I need to do be ready, to be loose and make sure everything is working properly,” Luongo said. “The main thing is I understand what I need to do as far as preparation to be where I need to be to be healthy. After my hip surgery, once I started feeling good, I kind of neglected it. You think you are back to normal, but you are not. You always have to keep on it to make sure you keep it strong and loose.” While he’s missed quite a bit of time, Luongo’s numbers haven’t suffered as he posted a .929 save percentage and three shutouts in 35 appearances.
  • Dom Luszczyszyn of The Athletic (subscription required) writes that the Ottawa Senators are considering using newly acquired winger Mikkel Boedker as a first-line option alongside Mark Stone and Matt Duchene next season. Boedker, who was acquired as part of the Mike Hoffman trade with the San Jose Sharks, has posted up-and down numbers the last several years, including a 10-goal season in 2016-17 and then 15-goal season a year ago. The scribe writes that putting Boedker on the first line will be a dangerous combination as Boedker isn’t a great two-way player and historically is a player that thrives on the power play, but rarely during even strength.

Snapshots: Stone, Ellis, Howard

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While many have viewed the one-year, $7.35MM contract that Senators winger Mark Stone inked last week to make him eligible for unrestricted free agency next summer as a sign that he is likely entering the final season with his team, he told Postmedia’s Bruce Garrioch that he’s certainly open to discussing an extension when the window opens up in January:

“Everyone is looking at this and I think most fans are thinking this is pretty negative news.  I think both sides left Toronto happy that we still have the opportunity to work something out.  Everybody knows the way that arbitration can go sometimes and the fact that both sides were able to leave on good terms is a good sign.”

Stone joins a notable list of notable Senators players that are entering the final year of their respective contracts.  That group includes defenseman Erik Karlsson, center Matt Duchene, and winger Ryan Dzingel (who is coming off of a 23-goal season).  With that in mind, there is going to be a narrow window for Ottawa to try to work something out with Stone as if they can’t come to terms on a long-term extension quickly in the new year, they will likely look to move him before the trade deadline.

More from around the league:

  • The Predators are having “consistent and continual negotiations” with defenseman Ryan Ellis regarding a contract extension, GM David Poile told ESPN 102.5 (audio link). The 27-year-old is entering the final year of a very team-friendly deal that carries a cap hit of just $2.5MM and is eligible for unrestricted free agency in July.  Considering how important he has been to Nashville’s back end in recent years, he should easily more than double that amount on his next contract.  Meanwhile, it was a memorable day for Poile as he was among the Class of 2018 named to the United States Hockey Hall of Fame as announced by USA Hockey.
  • Although the Red Wings now have Jonathan Bernier locked up for the next three years, Helene St. James of the Detroit Free Press suggests that that shouldn’t necessarily spell the end for incumbent netminder Jimmy Howard with the team. The pending UFA projects to be a trade candidate closer to the trade deadline but even if that were to happen, St. James notes that Detroit has been pleased with his performance over the last couple of years and would have interest in dealing him and bringing him back as a free agent on a short-term deal given that they don’t have any prospects pushing to make the jump to the NHL at the moment.  For that to happen, he would presumably need to take a pay cut from his current $5.29MM cap hit.

Poll: Ottawa’s Impending Free Agents

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The Ottawa Senators are a team in trouble. The Senators finished with a 28-43-11 record last season for a total of 67 points, second-lowest in the NHL. The team also placed close to the bottom in both goals for and goals against, which combined for a the league’s second-worst goal differential of -70. Ottawa dealt with a public relations nightmare this summer surrounding Mike Hoffman and ended up having to deal the dependable scorer away for pennies on the dollar. They have thus far failed to add any difference-makers via trade or free agency this off-season as well. On top of that, owner Eugene Melnyk is reportedly hemorrhaging money and appears to have a singular focus of spending as little as possible this season. That task is made difficult by a roster that features overpaid, ineffective veterans such as Bobby Ryan, Marian Gaborik, and Mikkel Boedker and a 37-year-old goalie coming off the worst season of his career in Craig Anderson. The Senators are the popular pick to be the worst team in the NHL in 2018-19, but even that has no silver lining, as the Colorado Avalanche own Ottawa’s first-round pick, potentially the first overall pick in next year’s draft.

It almost seems like so much is going wrong in Ottawa that things can only get better. Unfortunately, that is simply not the case. Early in this off-season, the Senators made a contract extension offer to all-world defenseman Erik Karlsson, who is slated for free agency next summer. When Karlsson dismissed this initial offer, the team made it know that they were open to trading the face of the franchise. Just this week, the team was unable to come to terms on a long-term extension with top scorer Mark Stone, instead signing him to a one-year deal that will make him an unrestricted free agent after the season, where he will potentially be the biggest available name behind Karlsson. Perhaps the biggest bargain on the team, Ryan Dzingel’s team-friendly contract runs out after next season and the young forward will want a significant raise, even if that means it doesn’t come from the penny-pinching Senators. Finally, Matt Duchene, who Ottawa gave up substantial trade capital to acquire early last season – when their future looked much brighter – is also entering the final year of his contract and may not want to stick around any longer in Ottawa after the team fell apart soon after his acquisition.

With Hoffman and Derick Brassard already gone, the Senators face a very real possibility that they will begin the 2019-20 season without all of their top six scorers from the 2017-18 season (make that top seven if they succeed in trading Ryan). Between the value each would have on the open market prompting them to test the waters and the mounting pressure on the team to trade them during what will almost certainly be another season of struggles, the odds of each of them returning is slim. If the team was second-worst last year, did nothing to improve this off-season, and doesn’t have the pick that could otherwise land them a franchise cornerstone in next year’s draft, it is scary to think about how much worse things could get in Ottawa if all four of these prominent free agents depart.

This begs the question: how many of Karlsson, Stone, Dzingel, and Duchene will still be Senators this time next year?

Mark Stone, Ottawa Senators Avoid Arbitration

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With neither side really wanting to go through the arbitration process today in Toronto, Mark Stone and the Ottawa Senators have settled on a one-year contract. The deal will pay Stone $7.35MM this season, and carry him through to unrestricted free agency in the summer of 2019. The two sides cannot sign an extension until January. Our Brian La Rose projected this exact contract yesterday when he broke down the Stone arbitration case.

The 26-year old played just 58 games for the Senators last season, but was easily the team’s best forward registering 20 goals and 62 points. That point-per-game pace pushed Stone from a very good player to one of the league’s best, especially when combined with his trademark takeaway ability and solid defensive presence. Even with the limited number of games, he still earned Selke votes for the fourth consecutive year and led all Senators in takeaways.

For all the positive things Stone brings, a one-year contract will lead to immediate speculation about his future in Ottawa. The team is heading for a rebuild, and now all three of their best players are scheduled to become unrestricted free agents next summer. Stone, Erik Karlsson and Matt Duchene all have just one year remaining on their deals, making them prime trade candidates over the next few months. Even if things go better than expected during the first half of the 2018-19 season, the team still has to consider moving these big assets for whatever they can get, depending on whether they’re willing to sign a long-term extension. Though it’s unclear if Stone would even re-enter negotiations, the fact that the two sides couldn’t come to an agreement this summer only puts creates more pressure down the road.

The Senators will have a two-month window to sign Stone at the beginning of 2019 before facing the trade deadline. If he remains unsigned, you can bet there will be dozens of teams clamoring to get a piece of him as a playoff rental with a chance to re-sign him to a long-term deal. Evander Kane, Paul Stastny and others set the market this season, but Stone is a more effective offensive piece than either of them and could bring back a bigger package should his contributions on the ice continue this season. As one of only a few top-end options in Ottawa, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him receive more than 20 minutes a night once again.

Those first line minutes shouldn’t come as a surprise now that Stone carries such a huge salary. His new contract makes him the 24th-highest paid forward in the league for 2018-19, putting pressure on him to perform as the best player up front for Ottawa. It also means that a long-term extension would be incredibly pricey, something that the Senators may just not have the money for. Remember this was a restricted free agent year still, which usually comes in at a lower price than the player would be demanding on the UFA market. If Stone wanted an even bigger cap hit for seven or eight years, Ottawa might have to back out of negotiations purely from a financial standpoint.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Arbitration Breakdown: Mark Stone

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While the Senators have already gone through one arbitration hearing this week with defenseman Cody Ceci, they’re on the verge of needing to do so with winger Mark Stone as well as his hearing is set for Friday morning.  The pre-hearing filings were exchanged on Wednesday with Ottawa offering $5MM and Stone asking for $9MM.  This has the potential to be a record-setting award so let’s take a closer look at this case.

The Numbers

Over the past four seasons, the 26-year-old has been pretty consistent offensively.  He has scored at least 20 times in each of those years and has had between 54-64 points in those seasons as well.  That type of production lines up with a high-end second liner or quality top liner.

However, 2017-18’s numbers have to be looked at a little closer.  Stone posted 62 points (20-42-62) last year but did so in only 58 games.  In other words, he played at an 88-point pace which ranked 14th league-wide among qualifying players.  That would put him in the high-end front liner range which likely has played a big role in his asking price.

The Senators haven’t hesitated to use Stone in all situations.  He led the team in ice time by a forward by a sizable margin (while ranking 11th league-wide) and averaged more than three minutes per night on the power play with a couple of shorthanded shifts as well.

With that in mind, it’s going to be difficult for Ottawa to argue that Stone deserves to be paid like a second-line player when their own usage of him is considerably different not to mention his big jump in points per game last season.

Potential Comparables

Comparable contracts are restricted to those signed within restricted free agency. For this exercise, I’ve taken it a step further and restricted this list to deals inked with arbitration eligibility which takes post-ELC deals like Nathan MacKinnon, Mark Scheifele, and Vladimir Tarasenko off the table.

Jonathan Huberdeau (Florida) – Huberdeau signed his current deal that carries a $5.9MM cap hit (4.45 cap hit percentage) after a 59-point season and was viewed as the time as someone that could be a top line player but would be even better on the second line.  That seems to be what Ottawa is going for here so it wouldn’t be surprising if they’re citing this deal as a comparable although it seems fair to say that this comparable is going to be on the low end.

Ryan Johansen (Nashville) – Johansen inked an eight-year, $64MM deal (10.67 cap hit percentage) coming off a three-year bridge contract which is the same situation as Stone is currently in.  At that time, he had four seasons of 60 or more points under his belt so Ottawa could try to argue that Johansen’s track record offensively is better.  However, Johansen hasn’t gotten particularly close to the point-per-game mark that Stone passed last season either.

Ryan O’Reilly (St. Louis) – While Stone isn’t elite at the faceoff dot like O’Reilly ($7.5MM AAV, 10.5 cap hit percentage) is, the similarities are fairly strong otherwise.  At the time the deal was signed, O’Reilly was coming off seasons of 64 and 55 points and his production since then has ranged between 55-61 points which is right in Stone’s range as well.  On top of that, they’re both well-regarded as two-way forwards.

Blake Wheeler (Winnipeg) – While Wheeler’s contract ($5.6MM AAV, 8.71 cap hit percentage) is now viewed as a bargain, the fact he’s significantly outperformed the contract since he signed it back in 2013 doesn’t really matter much.  At the time of the deal, Wheeler only had one 60-point year under his belt (although he played at that pace in the lockout-shortened year as well).  His cap hit is close to Ottawa’s submission but once you factor in the increase in the salary cap since then, the value in today’s dollars is just shy of $7MM.

Projection

The awards thus far have been right down the middle of the filings and there’s a decent chance that will be the case here as well.  It may be a bit tough for Stone to get the 10% or higher that Johansen and O’Reilly got as he doesn’t play the premium position they do either.  It will also be difficult for the arbitrator to really assess the season Stone just had – is that a sign of things to come or the statistical outlier?  Given that he has been closer to a 0.8 point-per-game average for the better part of his career, I think the arbitrator may skew a little more conservatively here.

Could this award (if it gets that far) set the record for the biggest one ever, surpassing Shea Weber’s $7.5MM?  It could, but I don’t think it will.  The cap percentage for that deal was 11.66 which is higher than what Stone’s probably going to get.

That said, Stone has a shot at setting a new award record for a forward ($7MM for John LeClair in 2000).  It wouldn’t be surprising to see the award come in between the filings midpoint of $7MM and Weber’s record award.  I think if Stone had put up a second season of close to point-per-game production, an award closer to $8MM would have been a legitimate possibility.  Instead, a one-year, $7.35MM contract (9.25 cap hit percentage) feels like a reasonable projection, one that lines him up for unrestricted free agency next summer and a whole lot of trade speculation between now and then.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Mark Stone, Ottawa Senators Exchange Arbitration Numbers

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The Ottawa Senators have an arbitration hearing today with Cody Ceci to decide on a contract for next season, but the offseason doesn’t end there for them. Mark Stone, who is scheduled for a hearing of his own on Friday, has exchanged arbitration filings with the team. According to Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet, Stone has asked for $9MM while the team has countered with $5MM. As always, the decision will likely come somewhere in the middle of the two numbers, though as Friedman points out that could still make this a record-breaking case. Shea Weber’s $7.5MM award in 2011 is currently the highest ever given through arbitration.

Stone, 26, can only be awarded a one-year deal in arbitration as he is just a single season away from becoming an unrestricted free agent. That freedom could be enticing to a player who has developed into one of the best two-way wingers in the league, and is coming off a season in which he scored at better than a point-per-game pace. His 62 points in 58 games for the Senators tied him with Erik Karlsson for the team lead, while recording his fourth consecutive 20+ goal campaign. Stone also possesses an almost unmatched ability to create turnovers and strip opposing players of the puck, which has led to Selke votes in each of his four full seasons.

Even accounting for the normal arbitration practice of asking for much more than you expect to be awarded, the $9MM figure will shock some people. Only nine forwards in the entire NHL will have a cap hit of $9MM or greater for the 2018-19 season, and though an exceptional player Stone is still not in the upper echelon of NHL stars. Even if the decision lands right in the middle at $7MM, he’ll vault into the top-30 highest paid forwards in the league and set himself up for a huge contract next summer. Whether that contract comes with the Senators isn’t clear.

Last month we asked whether the Senators should trade Stone, given that he is just a year away from unrestricted free agency and the team looks like it may struggle this season. Our readership was split 55-45 in favor of a move, which may be indicative of the hesitation GM Pierre Dorion would feel. Stone can be a leader in whatever turnaround is coming in Ottawa, and is still young enough to have several prime seasons remaining after 2018-19. If the team could work out a long-term extension with him in the next few days, perhaps there would be a little bit of hope for the Senators this season. If not, a one-year award would also bring with it restrictions on negotiating extensions. Players on one-year contracts cannot discuss or sign an extension until January, at which point Stone would be just a few months away from testing the open market. The trade deadline would also be right around the corner, forcing the Senators to make a quick decision on whether they had a real shot at retaining their talented winger.

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