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Atlantic Notes: Ottawa Free Agents, Rask, Marleau

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The Ottawa Senators have completed their scouting meeting in Florida recently and many now are waiting on what general manager Pierre Dorion intends to do with less than two months before the trade deadline. The team has three critical unrestricted free agents on their team in Mark Stone, Matt Duchene and Ryan Dzingel and it’s been made clear that the team can’t afford to lose any of them for nothing.

According to the Ottawa Sun’s Bruce Garrioch, the rumor is that Ottawa intends to attempt to re-sign both Stone and Duchene, but the team is ready to listen to offers for Dzingel. The 26-year-old winger has improved every year with Ottawa and could net the team a solid return as has two key qualities in his speed and ability to score in front of the net. Dzingel, who is coming off a 23-goal season last season, already has 17 goals in 32 games this season and looks to be heading for a new career-high in goals as well as points. The downside to Dzingel is that he can disappear for long stretches of time and sometimes avoids going to the net.

Of course, even though Ottawa is ready to negotiate with both Stone and Duchene, that doesn’t mean the team will be able to work out a deal with either one of them. If that’s the case, the Senators might be forced to trade more than just Dzingel. The belief is the team is now ready with all scenarios if they are forced to trade one, two or all three of those players at the trade deadline.

  • It looks like Tuukka Rask was earned back his starting job for the Boston Bruins, according to The Athletic’s Joe McDonald (subscription required). The veteran goaltender lost playing time to backup Jaroslav Halak this season, but with Rask on a four-game winning streak along with a 1.23 GAA and a .959 save percentage, it looks like he’s taken back his job. “There’s one net and Tuukka’s playing very well now and we’re trying to get him as many starts, so obviously that’s going to limit Jaro’s activity,” explained head coach Bruce Cassidy after Thursday’s loss. “When he’s in there he’s got to basically outplay (Rask) and that’s been the mantra with a lot of players in our group and that’s where (Halak’s) at now if he wants to get more starts.”
  • While rating the players on the Toronto Maple Leafs roster, The Athletic’s Ian Tulloch (subscription required) writes that Patrick Marleau has fallen short of expectations this season. He writes the biggest problem with Marleau is fans’ expectations for the veteran forward, who is coming off a season where he scored 27 goals last year. However, if you factor in the five empty net goals, his season wasn’t nearly as impressive. Add in the fact that Marleau is 39 years old now, no one should be surprised that the winger has undergone a decline. His 10 goals and 43 games suggest he may not even reach 20 goals for the first time since the 2014-15 season.

Extensive Power Forward Trade Market Forming

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If the 2019 NHL Trade Deadline is deep at any one type of player, it is power forward. As the February 25th deadline grows closer and teams begin to make tough decisions about who goes and who stays, it is becoming clear that many big, physical scoring forwards are about to be up for grabs before they hit free agency. Just this past week, it was reported that the Philadelphia Flyers’ Wayne Simmonds was likely to be moved and inferred that the Carolina Hurricanes and Micheal Ferland were unlikely to come to terms ahead of the deadline. And that’s just the beginning.

Outside of the 6’2″ Simmonds and 220-lb. Ferland, there are plenty of other names out there that fit the power forward mold. Since this summer, the New York Rangers’ Kevin Hayes has been earmarked for a deadline trade. If they cannot agree to an extension, the Ottawa Senators may be forced to move star Mark Stone. Should the New York Islanders or Colorado Avalanche fall out of the playoff race, Brock Nelson and Colin Wilson – neither of whom look like long-term fits on their respective teams – should be on the block. To some surprise, Patrick Maroon’s time with his hometown St. Louis Blues appears to be already running out. Even role player power forwards like New Jersey’s Brian Boyle and Florida’s Troy Brouwer should draw interest.

Many of these players feature on the trade bait lists from both The Athletic and TSN, as well as some non-UFA power forwards like the Blues’ Brayden Schenn, the Rangers’ Chris Kreider, the Wild’s Nino Niederreiter, and even young Jesse Puljujarvi of the Edmonton Oilers. While it may seem like too many names for too few teams – and it is a buyer’s market this year for sure – The Athletic’s Pierre LeBrun mentioned a number of suitors for a power forward who could make a move for one or more of these trade candidates in the coming weeks. At the top, LeBrun sees some of the biggest contenders as likely landing spots, naming the Tampa Bay Lightning, Nashville Predators, Winnipeg Jets, and Calgary Flames as good fits for Simmonds, Ferland, and the like. He also adds the Boston Bruins and Vegas Golden Knights into that group. Of course, the Bruins and Jets also have needs down the middle and could be more ideal fits for Hayes or Nelson, while the wingers would appeal more to Tampa Bay and Nashville. While LeBrun casts doubt on the Toronto Maple Leafs being interested, if an arms race begins the team could feel pressured to add to their forward corps as well. The Colorado Avalanche and Dallas Stars, both in need of secondary scoring, could also jump in on the action, while the Patric Hornqvist injury could prompt the Pittsburgh Penguins to make another move.

With so many power forwards potentially available and prices expected to be low, it could be that the majority of playoff-bound teams decide to add a hired gun up front this season. You can never have too much size and grit in the postseason, not to mention scoring touch, and the 2019 deadline could be defined by many players possessing those exact traits heading to new teams. With plenty of talent available, one of the aforementioned players might just end up being the x-factor for the eventual Stanley Cup champions this year.

Trade Rumors: Senators, Ferland, Goldobin

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In his latest “31 Thoughts” article, Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman poses the question on the mind of many fans and general managers alike: how long will the Ottawa Senators wait to make a decision on the futures of their impending free agent stars? The team made it a point to say early in the season that they had talked about a new contract with Matt Duchene and just recently it was reported that Mark Stone is prepared to talk to the team as well, now that he is eligible for an extension in the new year. Friedman adds that the Ottawa has already approached Ryan Dzingel about a new deal as well. The Senators clearly have plans to discuss contract extensions with the trio, but with the NHL Trade Deadline less than two months away, at what point will they begin talking to other teams instead? On one hand, the Senators owe the bulk of their meager offense to these three impending free agents and seemingly must do their best to bring back as many as they can. Stone leads the team with 45 points, while Duchene has missed six games but nevertheless is second with 40 points, and Dzingel is fourth – third among forwards – with 29 points. The idea that the team could lose all three and somehow improve next season seems like a long shot to say the least. The team has to do their best to resign the group. Yet, if the trio were to depart, it would be much nicer if they did so with a parting gift. Even if GM Pierre Dorion holds on to each player through the deadline in hopes of resigning them, there is no guarantee that they will stay in Ottawa. Rather than lose them for nothing, the Senators would benefit far more from trading them for hefty returns this season. Odds are that the team negotiates with each one of Stone, Duchene, and Dzingel right up until deadline before making a move, but if the market is stronger beforehand, Dorion and company will have some difficult decisions to make.

  • The Carolina Hurricanes are in a similar position with off-season acquisition Micheal Ferland. Ferland, an overlooked part of the Dougie Hamilton trade between the ’Canes and Calgary Flames, has enjoyed a breakout season in Carolina. Ferland is fourth on the team in scoring with 19 points and is currently on pace to set a new career high in scoring despite missing seven games due to injury. Friedman’s opinion on this situation is somewhat more definitive than Ottawa’s. Friedman claims that the two teams are talking extension, but if one is not in place by the trade deadline, Ferland will certainly be moved. The two-way left wing would be a highly valued asset on the rental market and Carolina would not hesitate to get what they can in a trade. Ferland, who has found a fit with Carolina, may not even rule out returning to the team in free agency, even if they can’t come to terms on a new contract this year. The only question remaining is how soon the Hurricanes would be willing to move Ferland if a deal is not coming together.
  • One surprise player who Friedman notes could be available is Vancouver Canucks forward Nikolay Goldobin. Friedman states that the team is merely looking into the potential return for the young winger right now, but even testing the market on Goldobin is unexpected. The 23-year-old winger is fourth on the team in scoring with 23 points in 41 games and at times has looked like a key piece of the young core for the Canucks. Yet, he has also moved around the lineup frequently and has even been a healthy scratch. It could be that Vancouver is fearful of upcoming negotiations with the impending restricted free agent, as GM Jim Benning and head coach Travis Green are not yet sold that he is worthy of a long-term contract, nor does the team want to be saddled with an arbitration decision. Regardless, a young player with the offensive upside of Goldobin is a rare entry into the trade market (although he has already been traded once in his career) and if the Canucks truly make him available, they will surely find takers.

“Last Man In” All-Star Ballot Candidates Announced

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The NHL has already announced the initial ten-man All-Star rosters for each of the four divisions, but new this year is an additional fan ballot to add an eleventh and final member to each squad. The “Last Man In” ballot, an idea invented by Major League Baseball, pits one skater from each team in each division against one another for a chance to participate in All-Star festivities. Fans will decide, with online voting opening tomorrow and lasting until midnight ET on January 10, which of the following players will get the final nod:

Pacific Division

F Leon Draisaitl (EDM)
F Logan Couture (SJS)
F Anze Kopitar (LAK)
F Ryan Getzlaf (ANA)
F Brock Boeser (VAN)
F Jonathan Marchessault (VGK)
D Mark Giordano (CGY)
D Oliver Ekman-Larsson (ARI)

Central Division

F Gabriel Landeskog (COL)
F Zach Parise (MIN)
F Patrik Laine (WPG)
F Tyler Seguin (DAL)
F Vladimir Tarasenko (STL)
F Filip Forsberg (NSH)
F Jonathan Toews (CHI)

Atlantic Division

F Brayden Point (TBL)
F Jeff Skinner (BUF)
F Dylan Larkin (DET)
F Aleksander Barkov (FLA)
F Patrice Bergeron (BOS)
F Mark Stone (OTT)
D Morgan Rielly (TOR)
D Shea Weber (MTL)

Metropolitan Division

F Nicklas Backstrom (WSH)
F Kyle Palmieri (NJD)
F Anders Lee (NYI)
F Jakub Voracek (PHI)
F Teuvo Teravainen (CAR)
F Nick Foligno (CLB)
F Mats Zuccarello (NYR)
D Kris Letang (PIT)

Due to the limits on selections by team, both in the initial rosters and the “Last Man In” vote, there are several star players who cannot be saved by fan voting this year. The Toronto Maple Leafs’ Mitch Marner, the No. 6-ranked scorer in the league, highlights the snub group, which also includes Calgary Flames forwards Sean Monahan and Matthew Tkachuk, Pittsburgh Penguins forwards Evgeni Malkin and Phil Kessel, and Minnesota Wild defenseman Ryan Suter. Other odd omissions, not necessarily forced by the format, are Columbus’ Artemi Panarin, Nashville’s Ryan Johansen, and Montreal’s Max Domi and Jeff Petry. However, the new final vote option does largely do a good job of giving each team and their fan base one last chance to get a deserving player into the All-Star game.

Ottawa, Mark Stone To Start Contract Negotiations In Two Weeks

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With a team in a critical state, it would benefit the Ottawa Senators if they could re-sign one or both of their top free agents this summer. The Ottawa Sun’s Bruce Garrioch reports that Mark Stone said that he expects contract negotiations to start in the next two weeks and makes it clear that he wants to stay in Ottawa.

Today marks the first day that Stone can sign an extension with the Senators. The 26-year-old went to arbitration with Ottawa this summer, eventually winning a one-year, $7.35MM deal as the two parties failed to agree to a long-term deal. Now the Senators must deal with Stone, who will hit unrestricted free agency this summer. The fact that both sides seem agreeable to working out a deal could be considered a good sign. However, that doesn’t mean that Stone is guaranteed to return. If the team fails to agree to an extension with Stone before the trade deadline in February, don’t be surprised if the Senators trade the talented forward rather than let him walk away for nothing.

Stone has been impressive on the ice this season and has been a leader both on and off the ice for a young Senators’ squad. TSN reports that Stone led a team meeting today, to discuss with the players the team’s recent struggles. He already has 18 goals and 43 points through 40 games and could be heading for a career year if he can keep those number up as his previous career high was back in the 2014-15 season when he tallied 26 goals and 64 points. A big season will only increase Stone’s asking price, but Ottawa really needs to make sure they can either keep Stone or Matt Duchene, who has also said that he’d like to stay in Ottawa, but many feel he may opt to leave Ottawa. Another concern is the team’s lack of willingness to offer big contracts out due to the team’s financial situation.

What Your Team Is Thankful For: Ottawa Senators

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As the holiday season approaches, PHR will take a look at what teams are thankful for as the season heads past the one-quarter mark. There also might be a few things your team would like down the road. Let’s take a look at what’s gone well in the early going and what could improve as the season rolls on for the Ottawa Senators.  Click here for the other articles in this series. 

What are the Senators most thankful for?

Not being dead last. Most experts as well as fans had the Senators picked as the worst team in the league and with all the offseason turmoil coming from issues surrounding Erik Karlsson as well as locker room issues, the team was being viewed as a laughing stock. Throw in the fact that the team traded away their first-round pick to Colorado in the Matt Duchene trade and things were looking even worse. While the team isn’t in the playoff hunt, the Senators have been respectable on the ice and considering that they have opted to rebuild their team, 14-16-4 record, which could be a lot worse.

Who are the Senators most thankful for?

After almost an entire year of Erik Karlsson rumors, the team finally unloaded their superstar defenseman in a deal with San Jose. Many felt that loss would destroy the team, but second-year defenseman Thomas Chabot has been nothing, if not remarkable. The 21-year-old has already surpassed his offensive totals from last year when he posted 25 points in 63 games. This year, Chabot has already reached 35 points in 34 games and is tied for first in the NHL in points along with Toronto’s Morgan Rielly and Washington’s John Carlson.

This development has made the transition away from Karlsson, who hasn’t taken off yet in San Jose, much easier for Ottawa fans as Chabot is starting to just scratch the surface to his skills in Ottawa. For a young team with very few veteran players, to have a defenseman averaging a point a game is a big deal.

What would the Senators be even more thankful for?

The team needs even more offense and while many of their young players have had some success already, the Senators are a team loaded in young talent. If the team could get some of those players to take that next step, the team would be far better off. The team have gotten some success from both Brady Tkuchuk and Colin White as both players have nine goals already. Surprise defenseman Max Lajoie is another rookie who has already posted six goals and 12 points. However, the team needs others to step up, including Drake Batherson who has seven points in 16 games so far. However, the team needs some of the top prospects in Belleville to take that next step at some point as well, including players like Rudolfs Balcers, Filip Chlapik and Logan Brown.

What should be on the Senators Holiday Wish List?

More than anything, the Senators need some clarity with some of their veteran players. The team has a number of pending unrestricted free agents in Duchene, Mark Stone and to a lesser extent Ryan Dzingel, and the last thing this franchise needs is for those players to walk away in free agency and leave the team with nothing. Unfortunately, no players have given a solid indication that they intend to return and if the team can’t come to terms on an extension with any of them before the trade deadline, they need to move them. Both Duchene and Stone have been impressive this year, so the team should get significant returns for those two if they are forced to trade them, but the team has to hope they can sign one of these players and begin to build this franchise up from there. Another firesale isn’t going to make the franchise look any better.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Snapshots: Nielsen, Ferland, Senators

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With Seattle being officially announced as the upcoming 32nd franchise in the NHL, teams are already starting to prepare for an upcoming expansion draft. While the Vegas Golden Knights will be exempt from the draft, June 2021 will be a focus for all other 30 teams. One of the most notable rules as we move towards the process is the one surrounding no-movement clauses and their automation protection. Teams’ ability to protect their young skaters will hamstrung by these clauses, and could force them into a trade with Seattle.

The Detroit Red Wings were one of these teams, as it appeared that Frans Nielsen had a no-movement clause that would force protection despite him nearing the end of his playing career by the time the draft rolls around. CapFriendly today reported that they had been mistaken previously when listing Nielsen with that clause, as it actually expired at the end of last season. Nielsen now only holds a modified no-trade clause, which does not have the same restrictions in the draft process.

  • Micheal Ferland has been activated by the Carolina Hurricanes, as he has fully recovered from his recent concussion. The forward still leads the Hurricanes in goals this season despite his four-game absence, and will try to step right back into the top-six role he’d shown the aptitude for. The physical, skilled forward is the only player on Carolina with double digit goals this season, something they’ve sorely lacked all year. Ferland is also a pending unrestricted free agent that carries just a $1.75MM cap hit this season, and will be very appealing to many teams at the deadline if Carolina drops out of the race.
  • Ian Mendes of TSN recently looked at the history of eight-year extensions and when they were usually signed, noting that the Ottawa Senators are approaching “uncharted territory” if they still intend on signing long-term deals with Matt Duchene and Mark Stone. Both players are pending unrestricted free agents and could very well be among the highest-paid players on July 1st. The Senators meanwhile will have to consider long and hard on whether they want to hand out huge extensions during the very early stages of their current rebuild.

Trade Rumors: Senators, Blackhawks, Avalanche

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With leading scorer Matt Duchene on injured reserve and expected out for “weeks”, what little chances the Ottawa Senators had of making the playoffs this season are likely to slip away. This was always the expected result of the 2018-19 season for Ottawa, but their efforts thus far to stay out of the basement of the NHL have surprised many and inspired some. However, as reality now begins to finally set in, the team must decide what they want to do with Duchene and fellow impending free agents Mark Stone and Ryan Dzingel. As Ken Warren of the Ottawa Sun writes, Duchene – currently tied for ninth in the league in scoring – will likely ask for an eight-year deal in the ballpark of $60-70MM to remain in Ottawa, reflective of the salary he will likely command on the open market. Stone will be in the same neighborhood, with Dzingel significantly lower albeit not cheap by any means, but the Senators cannot even begin negotiations with the pair until the new year, per the rules pertaining to their recent salary arbitration decisions. As such, the team is dealing with three high-quality expiring assets without any guarantee that they will be re-sign or if the team will be willing to meet their salary demands. In a season in which Ottawa could finish with one of the worst records in the league but lacks their first-round pick – given to the Colorado  Avalanche in the deal that landed Duchene – it stands to reason that GM Pierre Dorion will strongly consider recouping as much trade capital as possible if extensions are not in place by the trade deadline. Given the uncertainly surrounding the ownership status of Eugene Melnyk, whose tactics thus far leave much to be desired anyway, Warren believes that Duchene, Stone, and Dzingel, as well as any other free agent in the coming off-season, will think twice about a future in Ottawa. All things considered, it’s beginning to look like the trio stand a better chance to all be traded away in the coming months than any of them do of signing a long-term extension.

  • The Athletic’s Graeme Nichols wonders if yet another Senator is prime trade bait right now as well. With veteran goaltender Craig Anderson playing his best hockey of the season so far, Nichols opines that Ottawa would be best-served to try moving their starter while his stock is high. While the recent home-and-home series with the Montreal Canadiens did not go so well, Anderson did look very good in wins over the New York Rangers and San Jose Sharks prior, recording 63 saves on 65 shots over the two contests. Anderson also made 48 saves against the Dallas Stars last month and notched wins over the Tampa Bay Lighting and Pittsburgh Penguins. Admittedly, even as this best, Anderson is still a 37-year-old replacement-level goaltender at this point in his career and won’t command much of a return. However, the Senators’ season is sinking and they should get what they can while his value is potentially at its peak. The knock on moving Anderson this season has been that Ottawa has no suitable replacement – backups Mike Condon and Mike McKenna have performed very poorly in limited appearances – and thus trading Anderson means giving up on the season. Yet, with Duchene out long-term, any postseason hopes will fade and moving Anderson will begin to make more sense. As Nichols recalls, Anderson himself also alluded to a desire to move on from Ottawa this summer, so making a deal seems to be in the best interest of all parties. There are plenty of teams out there who would be intrigued by adding an established veteran in net this year and Anderson could soon fill that role.
  • The Chicago Blackhawks made it known yesterday that they are looking to move out some of their defensive depth, but NBC Sports’ James O’Brien asks if they are focused on the wrong players. Rather than try to flip the likes of Brandon Manning or Jan Rutta, for which they would receive relatively little, O’Brien believes that the team’s long-term needs would be better served by trading away a mainstay like Duncan Keith or Brent Seabrook. This is not so cut-and-dry, as O’Brien admits, but would be worth looking into. Both players carry no-trade clauses that Chicago GM Stan Bowman would first need to ask them to waive. Even if Seabrook was to agree, it seems very unlikely that Bowman would find a taker for the depreciating defenseman and his albatross of a contract. If by some chance he does, it would be a small return similar to Manning or Rutta, but with a far greater salary cap relief. Keith is another matter; while not what he once was, the 35-year-old is still a very capable defenseman who would play in the top four for nearly every team in the NHL, at least for now. The worry is that Keith will continue to age and his ability will fall off, while the Blackhawks continue to pay him more than $5.5MM per year and rely on him for top minutes. Removing that crutch (and cap hit) now, in what appears to be another lost season for the team, would give Chicago a strong return that they could use to begin rebuilding the team. The alternative, which also appears to be the current plan, of waiting for the current roster to turn things around, will only increase the risk of injury or drop-off from Keith while damaging his market value as he ages. A move now would be painful to the fan base in the short term, but the right move looking toward the future.
  • One team who could be a dangerous player at the trade deadline this season are the Colorado Avalanche. Per CapFriendly, the Avs are currently projected to have more than $56MM in cap space available at the deadline, or in other words have no limit to the amount of talent they can bring in if they so choose. Colorado is currently tied for the lead in the Central Division with the Nashville Predators and could even emerge as President’s Trophy threats this season. Armed with the best line in the NHL, including the top two scorers in the league, Mikko Rantanen and Nathan MacKinnon, and the best power play as well, the Avalanche are second in goals for per game among all teams. They also play well in their own end, seventh in goals against per game behind the efforts of Semyon Varlamov. Yet, the Avalanche are not without fault and could stand to add a contributor or two both on defense and up front. The team was expected to add top prospect Cale Makar to their blue line by the end of the regular season, but with his college squad, the UMass Minutemen, ranked No. 1 in the nation, Makar could be occupied through the Frozen Four tournament in mid-April. A capable puck-moving defenseman should thus be at the top of the list for Colorado, followed by an injection of offensive ability and two-way accountability among the forward corps, where their secondary scoring and penalty kill could both use work. While the matter of cost in trade capital is another question entirely, the Avalanche will have the cap space to hypothetically address their needs by adding the likes of Jordan Eberle, Kevin Hayes, and Jay Bouwmeester for example. That’s a dangerous premise for other contenders to consider as Colorado continues to excel this season.

Atlantic Notes: Palat, Pageau, Dermott, Hudon, Rask

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Tampa Bay Lightning head coach Jon Cooper announced that winger Ondrej Palat is not expected to play Sunday, but after that the 27-year-old is expected to be listed as “day-to-day” and could be back soon. Palat hasn’t played since Oct. 26 when he left the game with a lower body injury and subsequently was listed out for at least four weeks. That seems about right as the team could get him back at some point this week.

Palat has appeared in just nine games this season and has failed to find the back of the net as he has just five assists in that span. The team needs the winger to return and re-establish himself in the team’s top-six as he also dealt with injuries last year as he played in 56 games, tallying only 11 goals.

Cooper also added that defenseman Anton Stralman is being re-evaluated and will be out Sunday. The 32-year-old hasn’t played since Nov. 8 with an undisclosed injury. Stralman has eight points in 16 games.

  • The Ottawa Sun’s Bruce Garrioch reports that center Jean-Gabriel Pageau, who has been out all season with a torn Achilles muscle, continues to make amazing progress as he joined the team on their four-game road trip in New York and skated with the team Sunday in a non-contact jersey. Despite a six-month timetable in mid-September, Pageau looks closer and closer to returning to the team quite a bit earlier than the original diagnosis. Garrioch also notes that Mark Stone, Colin White and Mark Borowiecki all took part in skating Sunday.
  • The Athletic’s Ian Tulloch (subscription required) breaks down the play of many of the Toronto Maple Leafs from Saturday’s game. Of note, Tulloch writes that one necessity in the near future is that Toronto must find a way to find a spot in their top-four for defenseman Travis Dermott. The 21-year-old is only averaging 17:53 of ATOI, but has been used more and more, getting 23:06 of ice time Saturday. The scribe adds that Dermott has developed into the team’s top defenseman and the Toronto needs to make adjustments accordingly, which means cutting playing time for struggling blueliners Ron Hainsey and Nikita Zaitsev.
  • After being a healthy scratch for Friday’s game, Montreal Canadiens forward Charles Hudon talked to head coach Claude Julien, who told him to be more aggressive, like he was last season when he had 126 hits, according to Montreal Gazette’s Stu Cowan. Hudon’s response was he had 13 hits in 9:09 of ice time.
  • It looks like the break that Tuukka Rask took a week ago has been paying off for the netminder. Rask has had three impressive starts since taking a critical weekend off earlier this month, including a .938 save percentage in his three appearances since his return, according to the Boston Globe’s Kevin Paul Dupont.

Ottawa Senators, Matt Duchene In “Substantive Contract Talks”

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Despite the dark cloud that has hovered over the Ottawa Senators for more than a year, the team now finds themselves at 6-6-3 on the season after a big win last night against the New Jersey Devils. That win was important to show the team’s resilience after the latest public scandal that included a recorded conversation of players badmouthing their coaching staff. Interestingly, as Bob McKenzie of TSN notes on the latest edition of Insider Trading, one of the players involved in that video was Matt Duchene who is currently in a contract negotiation with the team. McKenzie reports that Duchene’s agent and Ottawa GM Pierre Dorion are in “substantive contract talks” and that there is interest from both sides in at least discussing a long-term extension.

As we examined recently, Duchene’s future with the Senators is perhaps the single most important decision that Dorion has to make this season. The team gave up a large package of assets to bring him to Ottawa that included Kyle Turris, prospect Shane Bowers and infamously an unprotected first-round pick. At the time, it looked like Duchene was acquired as the missing piece of a puzzle that was closer to the Stanley Cup finals than the draft lottery, but basically everything has gone downhill since then. Now in the final year of his contract, Duchene is potentially one of the top names available in the 2019 unrestricted free agent class and could be a valuable trade chip at the deadline if no extension is reached.

Still just 27 years old, despite now being in his tenth full NHL season, Duchene is off to a fast start. With 15 points in 15 games he is well on his way to one of the best seasons of his career, something that would set him up for a huge windfall in free agency. Currently making $6.5MM (with a $6MM cap hit) in the final season of a five-year $30MM contract signed with Colorado in 2013, he could secure a substantial raise with a point-per-game season. The Senators are giving him every chance at that type of contract by playing him more than any other forward not named Mark Stone, but whether they’re willing to hand it out themselves is still up for debate. Ottawa has cut costs considerably over the last few seasons, and couldn’t come to an agreement with captain Erik Karlsson on an extension of his own. Karlsson was likely demanding quite a bit more than Duchene’s camp will be asking for, but the finances of any long-term market value deal are tricky for Ottawa.

The team is heading towards a similar result with Stone, who is proving to be one of the best wingers in the NHL and is currently on a one-year deal worth $7.35MM. He’s also scheduled for unrestricted free agency and will perhaps be asking for an even bigger contract given that he’s younger than Duchene and is on track for his second consecutive point-per-game season. There seems little chance that both players will be re-signed, especially with others like Cody Ceci also needing a slice of the pie next summer.

Duchene though remains the focus at the moment, and if the “substantive talks” result in a contract extension soon it would show that the latest scandal is behind the team, and that both players and executives are focused on winning right away. Though they still may end near the bottom of the standings this season, the group on the ice right now has shown that there is still talent in Ottawa—whether it is enough to convince their free agents to stay is still yet to be determined.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

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