Picking This Year’s Cinderella Run Has Never Been Easier
The Utah Mammoth enter play Saturday with a 37-30-6 record, squarely in position for their first playoff berth via the wild-card spot in the West. They’re 3-5-2 in their last 10 games. In the Eastern Conference, they’d be seven points out of a playoff berth.
If you lump in the Coyotes’ history with the rebirthed Utah franchise, this club hasn’t made the playoffs in a full season since 2012. If you want to go all the way back to their origins as the original Winnipeg Jets, this team has won just four playoff series since entering the NHL in 1979 – once each as the Jets in 1985 and 1987, twice as the Coyotes in their run to the ’12 Western Conference Final.
Yet the Utah Mammoth, in their first season with their new namesake, are a glaringly obvious pick to upset their way through the first two rounds of the playoff bracket and end up as one of the league’s final four teams. Why?
Everyone knows the Pacific Division is bad. Few realize how dire the situation truly is.
There are four regular-season stats that consistently predict postseason haves and have-nots, as Daily Faceoff’s Brock Seguin pointed out earlier this week. Of the last 10 Stanley Cup champions, nine have been in the top 10 in 5-on-5 goals share, eight have been top 12 in 5-on-5 expected goals share, all have been top 12 in 5-on-5 save percentage, and nine have been top 12 in combined power play and penalty kill percentage.
Utah is all but guaranteed to end up in the Pacific bracket as the better wild card. A look at those numbers clearly shows that none of the three teams earning divisional berths stands much of a chance.
The Ducks, on track for their first division title in nine years and first postseason appearance in eight, might be the worst offenders of the bunch. They have a -15 goal differential at 5-on-5 this season for a GF% of 47.6%, 21st in the league. Their expected goals share is right at the 50% waterline, but still ranks 17th. Their goaltending, a boon earlier in the season, has fallen to a 26th-ranked .896 5-on-5 save percentage. Their combined special teams percentage of 96.7% is 24th.
Of course, the Ducks might just be a statistical anomaly. Very little about their profile suggests they should be the 40-win team they already are. They’re not particularly lucky, finishing 0.3% below league average with a 98.9 PDO, and own a -4 goal differential. Who’s to say that can’t continue in the playoffs?
They’ll be matching up against the Mammoth, though. For the second year in a row, Andre Tourigny’s Utah club is much, much better than its record indicates.
Take all the above stats in contrast. They’re eighth in the NHL in 5-on-5 GF% (53.1). Sixth in xGF% (52.7%). 21st in save percentage (.902). 26th in combined special teams (96.4%).
Yes, their struggling power play is a significant reason why their record isn’t any better. In a playoff environment with tighter calls, there are fewer of them to be had, though, and it carries less weight than everything else.
Is Karel Vejmelka a Stanley Cup-caliber starting goaltender? Probably not. It’s clear, though, that Utah’s dominant 5-on-5 play should be more than enough to ensure a wild-card-over-division-champ upset over the Ducks. It should also be enough to get them past a similarly flawed Oilers or Golden Knights roster in the second round, as those clubs are likely ticketed for the #2/#3 matchup.
The only stats in which the Oilers grade out as a potential Cup contender are expected goals share (51.4%) – the least reliable indicator among the four stats outlined – and their combined 107.7% special teams rate. Penalty trouble could sink the Mammoth, sure. But even at the Oilers’ greatest 5-on-5 strength, Utah grades out as a better possession-control team. The Oilers’ horrid 5-on-5 goaltending – 31st in the league at a .887 SV% – could be enough on its own to offset any special teams gains.
If they face Vegas, they’d be coming up against the only team with a worse goaltending situation this year than Edmonton (.885). The Knights’ possession numbers do make them more of a threat, though, with their 5-on-5 GF% ranking 19th (48.5%) and their xGF% (53.1%) all the way up at fifth. That’s miles ahead of Edmonton, and they’ve got the league’s fourth-best special teams efficacy at 106.8%, so they pose a greater challenge. But like Edmonton, Vegas’ lack of a clear-cut #1 option in net – and not for a good reason – will likely be enough to sink them against an above-average finishing squad in Utah.
Of course, the narrative falls apart when pitting the Mammoth against a potential Central Division opponent in the Western Conference Final. Average the league-wide ranks of those four stats among the teams currently in playoff position, and the Avalanche, Stars, and Wild are three of the top four teams.
Still, it’s excessively rare to almost expect a wild-card team to be playing playoff hockey into late May. It would be a great story to see one of the league’s most exciting up-and-coming franchises in Utah, particularly one with such a meager history of success, make a deep run. It would also be one of the least surprising developments of the spring, despite what a traditional wild-card narrative may dictate.
Barrett Hayton Out Week-To-Week With Upper-Body Injury
Mammoth head coach Andre Tourigny said Thursday that center Barrett Hayton is considered week-to-week with an upper-body injury, per Brogan Houston of the Deseret News.
Hayton’s outing against the Oilers on Tuesday lasted just 17 seconds. He left the game following an awkward collision with teammate Jack McBain, leaving Utah with only 11 forwards for virtually the entire game, which ended up being a 5-2 loss for the Mammoth.
It’s another blip in what has been a disappointing campaign from the former fifth overall pick. The 25-year-old finally looked like he could be a solid, two-way top-six threat last season with 20 goals and 46 points in 82 games, suiting up almost exclusively beside Clayton Keller as the team’s top-line pivot to give Logan Cooley some easier matchups in the #2 slot.
Hayton’s production drove speeding off a cliff to begin 2025-26, though. He had just five points in 23 games through the end of November and was quickly moved out of a top-line job, with Tourigny opting to promote the resurgent Lawson Crouse while shifting Nick Schmaltz from the wing to his natural center position.
Hayton’s role in the lineup has shifted frequently in the several weeks since. His production picked up a bit in January and February but has gone cold again following the trade deadline. All in all, he’s managed a 10-15–25 scoring line in 67 games – 0.37 points per game after reaching a career-high 0.56 mark last year.
While he may not be scoring as much as they’d like, Hayton has remained a valuable defensive presence. The 6’1″, 200-lb pivot isn’t an overly physical threat but has won 52.6% of his faceoffs this year while posting a strong 54.1% Corsi for percentage at even strength. That’s despite Hayton starting 53.9% of his shifts in the defensive zone, the fourth-highest figure among Utah forwards.
2023 first-rounder Danil But, recalled from AHL Tucson yesterday, will be stepping into the lineup tonight alongside Cooley and Dylan Guenther as the club’s second-line left wing, per Houston. He’s amassed seven points through his first 28 NHL games.
Utah Mammoth Recall Danil But
According to a team announcement, the Utah Mammoth have recalled prospect forward Danil But from the AHL’s Tucson Roadrunners. The transaction increases the Mammoth’s active roster to 24 players.
It’s not immediately clear if But will enter Utah’s lineup, or if he’s being kept around as a practice player as the team prepares for the postseason. At the time of writing, the Mammoth aren’t dealing with injuries to their forward corps, so someone will have to be healthy scratched to get But into the lineup.
Still, given the Roadrunners’ position in the standings, an unreported injury is likely. Tucson is only three points back of a postseason spot in the AHL’s Pacific Division, meaning But would be involved with meaningful hockey no matter what team within the organization he’s playing with.
If he does draw in, it’ll be his first NHL appearance since January 31st. He was sent down through the Olympic break and kept on the Roadrunners to ensure his eligibility for the 2026 Calder Cup playoffs.
While he may not break any scoring records this season, he has had a relatively solid rookie campaign overall. In 28 games, But has registered three goals and seven points with a +2 rating, averaging 12:35 of ice time per game. Additionally, his 18 blocked shots, 16 hits, 55.1 CorsiFor% at even strength, and 92.5% on-ice SV% at even strength highlight a maturity to his game that isn’t necessarily common in younger wingers.
Furthermore, there’s good indication that his offensive game will catch up to the rest of the skills he has shown in the NHL this season. In Tucson, But has scored 16 goals and 33 points in 34 games, second on the team in rookie scoring behind fellow 2023 draftee, Dmitriy Simashev.
Mammoth Sign Michael Hrabal To Entry-Level Deal
The Mammoth announced they’ve signed goalie prospect Michael Hrabal to a three-year, entry-level deal that begins next season. He’ll immediately report to AHL Tucson on a tryout basis to finish the current campaign. Per PuckPedia, the contract carries a cap hit of $1.075MM and breaks down as follows:
| Year | NHL salary | Signing bonus | Potential performance bonuses | Minors salary |
| 2026-27 | $922.5K | $102.5K | $500K | $82.5K |
| 2027-28 | $967.5K | $107.5K | $750K | $82.5K |
| 2028-29 | $1.013MM | $112.5K | $1MM | $82.5K |
Hrabal, 21, was a member of the Coyotes’ final draft class in 2023, going quite early in the second round at 38th overall. Now, he’s ticketed as Utah’s likely goalie of the future.
The Czech native towers at 6’7″ and 216 lbs, now slated for his pro debut after three largely standout seasons of college hockey at UMass. He was particularly exceptional as a junior this season, racking up a 1.95 GAA, .937 SV%, and four shutouts for a 19-9-1 record in 29 games. That earned him both First Team All-Star and Player of the Year honors in the Hockey East conference, but it wasn’t enough to get the offensively challenged club to a national tournament berth.
If he wasn’t the clear-cut top goaltending prospect in the organization before this season, he certainly is now. Daily Faceoff’s Steven Ellis ranked him #6 in the Mammoth’s deep prospect pool last summer, still touting him as having “true star goalie” potential.
While he won’t be eligible to suit up in the NHL this year, he will get an early chance down the stretch to challenge AHL veterans Jaxson Stauber and Matt Villalta for playing time in Tucson. Neither has been particularly inspiring this season with sub-.900 save percentages, so the path is wide open for Hrabal to establish himself as Utah’s clear-cut #3 goalie entering training camp in the fall, potentially even putting forth a challenge to replace pending unrestricted free agent Vítek Vaněček as Karel Vejmelka‘s backup.
Hrabal will be a restricted free agent when his deal is up in 2029, but he won’t be eligible for arbitration. Utah will be on the hook for a $1.114MM qualifying offer.
Mammoth Sign Caleb Desnoyers To Entry-Level Deal
The Mammoth announced they’ve signed top center prospect Caleb Desnoyers to his three-year entry-level deal. TVA’s Renaud Lavoie reports it starts next season, making him ineligible for NHL action down the stretch. That makes sense considering he wouldn’t be eligible to turn pro until his postseason run with the QMJHL’s league-best Moncton Wildcats, which will get underway on Friday, comes to an end, which will likely stretch past the end of Utah’s regular season barring an early upset.
Desnoyers, who’ll celebrate his 19th birthday next month, entered the year as a consensus top-30 prospect in hockey and has largely held up that reputation with another All-Star season in Moncton. The Quebec native was the fourth overall pick in last year’s draft and, after guiding Moncton to a QMJHL championship while taking home postseason MVP honors, has now put up a 22-56–78 scoring line in just 45 regular-season games this year. He missed the first couple of weeks after undergoing offseason wrist surgery and then sustained a separate injury before finally getting into the lineup consistently in the back half. His 1.73 points per game this season led the QMJHL (min. 25 games), along with a +36 rating from the 6’2″, 179-lb middleman.
He’s Utah’s consensus top prospect but is realistically in step with the Mammoth’s top-10 selection in 2024, Tij Iginla, who also figures to make his NHL debut next year after racking up 41 goals and 90 points in just 48 WHL games for the Kelowna Rockets. While QMJHL point totals are often inflated in a much weaker defensive environment than its WHL and OHL counterparts, he’s still the cream of the crop there and has been as a 17- and 18-year-old, rather than a talent on the edge of aging out of junior hockey.
Desnoyers’ ELC is for the new maximum laid out in last year’s CBA extension, per PuckPedia. That breaks down as follows:
2026-27: $922.5K NHL salary, $102.5K signing bonus, up to $3.15MM in performance bonuses, $85K minors salary
2027-28: $967.5K NHL salary, $107.5K signing bonus, up to $3.15MM in performance bonuses, $85K minors salary
2028-29: $1.013MM NHL salary, $112.5K signing bonus, up to $3.15MM in performance bonuses, $85K minors salary
It’s worth noting that Desnoyers is still young enough to be slide-eligible if he doesn’t play in 10 NHL games next season. The new AHL loan agreement the NHL is drafting with the CHL should also allow him to spend next season in the minors with Tucson if he’s not on the big-league roster, rather than sending him back to Moncton, as the Mammoth would have had to do under the previous agreement.
Mammoth Sign Michael Carcone To Two-Year Extension
The Mammoth announced that they’ve signed left-winger Michael Carcone to a two-year extension through the 2027-28 campaign. The deal carries an average annual value of $1.75MM for a total value of $3.5MM, per TVA’s Renaud Lavoie. Per PuckPedia, it’s an even split between 2026-27 and 2027-28 and is paid entirely in base salary.
It’s quite the shift for Carcone, whose time in Utah looked like it was over a year ago. A pending unrestricted free agent at the time, he was clear at exit meetings that he had no intent to re-sign in Salt Lake and wanted to test the open market for more consistent playing time. After going unsigned through the first two weeks of free agency, though, Utah was still looking for forward depth. He ended up returning to the Mammoth on a one-year, league-minimum deal.
The decision has been a win for both parties. Carcone broke out in 2023-24 with 21 goals and 29 points in 74 games for the Coyotes, but he ended up as a healthy scratch in Utah down the stretch last season. Few expected him to keep up his 18.9% shooting rate from his Arizona breakout, but seeing as it dipped by half in 2024-25, his effectiveness as a depth skill man wasn’t enough to justify keeping him in the lineup.
This season, though, Carcone has returned to form. Through 66 games, he ranks seventh on the Mammoth with 14 goals and has added 12 assists for 26 points. He’s done so while adding a considerable physical edge to his game, already more than doubling his previous career high in hits with 117. That’s done wonders for the 5’9″, 182-lb winger’s availability to stay in the lineup and has bumped his ice time up to 12:25 per game, seeing some increased power-play usage along the way as well.
Over parts of the last five seasons with Arizona/Utah, Carcone is up to a 48-35–83 scoring line in 223 career games. That’s an average of 18 goals and 31 points per 82 games, great production for the third- or fourth-line wing slot he usually occupies. The 29-year-old now signs a standard contract above league minimum for the first time in his career, earning a 126% pay bump in the process.
Utah now has 16 roster spots accounted for next season, at least based on players currently on their active roster. They’re still armed with north of $16MM in cap space with center Barrett Hayton as their only notable restricted free agent to re-sign. That leaves plenty of room for top prospects still on entry-level deals like Caleb Desnoyers, Tij Iginla, and Dmitriy Simashev to step in and compete for jobs while still allowing the Mammoth to add an impact free agent from this summer’s ever-thinning market.
Latest On Kevin Stenlund
- Ahead of their game tonight in Dallas, the Utah Mammoth announced that Kevin Stenlund won’t play, as he’s day-to-day with a lower-body ailment. The fourth line center has missed just his second game of 2025-26, otherwise posting 15 points in 66 games. It’s a step back from the 29-year-old’s strong first season in Utah where he set a career high with 28 points, but he’s a typical shutdown presence hardly counted on in that aspect. Stenlund has started just shy of 65% of his shifts in the defensive zone, and he brings value in face-off wins. The former Columbus second round pick could come back as soon as Thursday in Vegas.
Utah Mammoth Reassign Maksymilian Szuber
Saturday: The Mammoth announced that Szuber has been sent back to the Roadrunners. He did not see any game action while on recall.
Monday: The Utah Mammoth announced tonight that they have recalled defenseman Maksymilian Szuber from their AHL affiliate, the Tucson Roadrunners.
The recall was made just before the club began its contest against the Chicago Blackhawks, and was likely made with an eye to the injury currently being managed by defenseman Mikhail Sergachev.
Sergachev has been out since March 5 with a lower-body injury. With Sergachev unavailable for selection by head coach Andre Tourigny, the addition of Szuber gives the team an additional blueliner to work with in Sergachev’s absence.
This isn’t Szuber’s first recall in recent weeks for the 23-year-old defenseman, though he has not yet dressed for any games for the Mammoth. He has one NHL game to his name, coming in 2023-24 with the Arizona Coyotes. He’s been making a push for consideration for an NHL role in 2025-26, a development that has been underscored by his handful of recalls this year.
The 6’3″, 220-pound defenseman won a DEL Championship with Red Bull Munich in 2022-23 before crossing the Atlantic to cut his teeth in the North American pro game. He’s been a steady top-four defenseman at the AHL level over the past two years, and has had a strong season so far. In 50 games for the Roadrunners, he’s managed 10 goals and 25 points. He’s handling a solid diet of minutes for the Roadrunners, and is contributing on both sides of special teams.
While the Mammoth are looking to hold onto their current spot in the Western Conference playoff picture (their ceiling is likely the first Wild Card spot, given the substantial standings lead held by three Central Division juggernauts, the Minnesota Wild, Colorado Avalanche, and Dallas Stars), they stand to benefit if they can find a way to test Szuber in some NHL games down the stretch.
He’s a pending restricted free agent who will have the right to file for arbitration if he so chooses. If the Mammoth can get Szuber into some NHL games, they would likely have a better sense of how close he is to being firmly NHL-ready, which would then give them a better sense of what level of investment to commit to him on his next contract.
Additionally, from Szuber’s perspective, getting the chance to play in some NHL games could enhance his case for a more substantial contract this summer. It would potentially allow him to position himself in negotiations more as a player on the NHL-AHL bubble, rather than a full-time AHL talent.
Mammoth Sign Nick Schmaltz To Eight-Year Extension
The Mammoth announced that they’ve signed forward Nick Schmaltz to an eight-year extension worth $8MM per season, a total value of $64MM. Set to hit unrestricted free agency this summer, he’s now staying in Utah through the 2033-34 campaign. There are no signing bonuses in the deal, per PuckPedia. He’ll be paid entirely in base salary, earning $10MM from 2026-27 through 2028-29, $8MM from 2029-30 through 2030-31, and $6MM from 2031-32 through 2033-34. The deal also comes with a no-movement clause for the first two years. Starting in 2028-29, it downgrades to a full no-trade clause, then again to a 16-team no-trade list in 2030-31 and an eight-team no-trade list in 2032-33.
Amid what could now be a historically thin UFA class this summer, Schmaltz was going to be the leading target if he made it there. One could make the argument that he was just one of two forwards, along with Alex Tuch, available who could comfortably slot into a first-line role, Evgeni Malkin and Alex Ovechkin notwithstanding.
Still, it’s no surprise to see Schmaltz commit for what could be the rest of his career to the team he’s been with for nearly seven seasons and 500 games, dating back to when the Mammoth’s predecessor, the Coyotes, acquired him from the Blackhawks for Dylan Strome in 2019. He already committed long-term to the organization once, quickly moving to sign a seven-year deal after his acquisition that saw him get paid $5.85MM per season. He now re-ups on a contract that only carries an extremely modest increase in cap hit percentage at the start of the deal from 7.2% to 7.7%. While it’s a significant raise in actual cash, it’s not a huge bump in market value.
Schmaltz has never hit 70 points in a single season, but he’ll lock in his third consecutive 60-point campaign with his next point and will end up at 75 points by the end of the regular season if he keeps up his current pace. He’d previously topped the 0.90 points per game mark twice in back-to-back years with Arizona in 2021-22 and 2022-23, although injuries limited him to about 75% of the schedule each time.
The 30-year-old’s resurgence comes after a couple of relatively down seasons. He’s had no trouble staying healthy now, but did see his points per game average drop to 0.77 across Arizona’s last season in 2023-24 and Utah’s first in 2024-25. That also came with -16 and -15 ratings, the worst two figures of his career.
The under-the-hood numbers never dipped too much, though. Quietly, Schmaltz has been one of the better play-driving forwards in the league over the past several seasons. He hasn’t had a net negative Corsi impact at 5-on-5 in a full season as a Coyote/Clubber/Mammoth and has taken things to new heights this season, controlling 55.0% of shot attempts, 55.2% of expected goals, and 55.2% of scoring chances at 5-on-5 this year. A natural center, he’s spent most of his career on the wing but has shifted back to the pivot position this year amid Barrett Hayton‘s struggles and subsequent demotion down the depth chart. He’s now Utah’s top-line pivot between lefty Clayton Keller and a rotation of Lawson Crouse, Dylan Guenther, and JJ Peterka on his right flank.
Schmaltz’s value comes from his reliable output and playmaking skills. He’s not particularly flashy, doesn’t have a “star-level” gear to unlock at this stage, and only lays a hit about once every five games. But he’s been a consistent top-six producer ever since first stepping into Arizona’s lineup seven years ago, and his versatility down the middle and on the wing is attractive to a Utah club that has a bevy of forward prospects still coming up the ranks.
After registering his extension, Utah still has $17.9MM in projected cap space available for next season, but that’s with eight open roster spots (an average of $2.24MM per player). Luckily, they don’t have anyone to sign who will cost significantly more than that.
Image courtesy of Brad Penner-Imagn Images.
Utah Mammoth Reassign Dmitriy Simashev
The Utah Mammoth no longer needs an extra defenseman on the roster. According to a team announcement, the Mammoth have reassigned Dmitriy Simashev after recalling him earlier today, and activated newcomer MacKenzie Weegar from the non-roster list.
Simashev was reassigned yesterday to ensure his playoff eligibility in the AHL. He was subsequently recalled this morning in case Weegar couldn’t resolve his visa issues before tonight’s contest. As it turns out, Weegar is good to go and will make his Mammoth debut tonight.
It appears that Simashev will get an extended stay with the AHL’s Tucson Roadrunners, unless Utah runs into injury trouble. The Mammoth have plenty of cap space for Simashev on the NHL roster, but there’s little need for him since they already have seven healthy defensemen.
He’ll return to a Roadrunners club where he has had a phenomenal season. In 30 games, Simashev has scored eight goals and 28 points with a +2 rating. His performance this season has likely alleviated concerns about his offensive game, as the former sixth overall pick registered only one goal and six points in 56 games for the KHL’s Lokomotiv Yaroslavl last season.
Most importantly, Simashev will help Tucson with its mission to qualify for the Calder Cup playoffs. The team is currently in eighth place in the AHL’s Pacific Division, but only three points separate them from fifth place.
Meanwhile, the Mammoth will see their big deadline acquisition in the lineup for the first time. Weegar is in his 10th professional season this year, split between the Florida Panthers and Calgary Flames. He’s scored three goals and 21 points in 60 games with a -35 rating, averaging 23:07 of ice time. Additionally, he’s registered 143 blocked shots and 130 hits.