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Deadline Primer: Ottawa Senators

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With the trade deadline fast approaching, we continue our look at the situation for each team over the coming weeks. Where do they stand, what do they need to do, and what assets do they have to fill those needs? As we continue with the Atlantic Division, here is a look at the Ottawa Senators.

This will be a franchise-changing time for the Ottawa Senators who are in a tough situation with three significant players ready to hit unrestricted free agency in Matt Duchene, Mark Stone and Ryan Dzingel. The team has made it clear it’s trying to get them signed to long-term extensions, but will the team offer appropriate deals to them and do any of the three really want to stay with a franchise that seems intent on being one of the cheapest franchises in the NHL.

If the team can’t get them to sign on the dotted line before the trading deadline, then the team will move them with the real possibility that all three will be moved before the trade deadline and with every passing day, it looks more and more likely that Ottawa and general manager Pierre Dorion will be shipping them off. The team has made it clear they are rebuilding their team, which might be just fine if they hadn’t paid a fortune last season to acquire Duchene from Colorado. In that mega-package for Duchene, the Senators also traded away their first-round pick, which right now (pending a draft lottery) is likely to be the No. 1 overall pick.

Considering that none of the three will agree to a sign-and-trade, Ottawa will be lucky to get a quality return for their three forwards, especially for Duchene and Stone who are two of the most coveted assets on the trade deadline.

Record

21-31-5, eighth in the Atlantic Division

Deadline Status

Major seller

Deadline Cap Space

$30.79MM in full-season cap hit, 1/3 used salary cap retention slots, 48/50 contracts per CapFriendly

Upcoming Draft Picks

2019: OTT 2nd, SJS 2nd*, PIT 3rd, OTT 4th, OTT 5th, OTT 7th, CAL 7th
2020: OTT 1st, SJS 1st, OTT 2nd, OTT 3rd, CBJ 3rd, OTT 4th, OTT 6th, SJS 6th, STL 6th, OTT 7th

* Sharks will give Ottawa the higher of two different picks, their own and the Florida Panthers’ second-rounder.

Trade Chips

As said earlier, the team will attempt to lock up one or two of Duchene, Stone and Dzingel, but if not, the team is ready to move on from them. Stone has received quite a bit of attention as the Winnipeg Jets are rumored to be aggressively pursuing the 26-year-old winger. Fortunately for Stone and the Senators, he’s having a career year as he’s already scored 26 goals and 57 points and looks to be developing into a consistent 30-point scorer for whatever team can eventually sign him.

Duchene himself, should bring a hefty return, although not as much as Ottawa paid for him a season ago. Duchene is also posting big numbers and looks to be heading for a career-year himself as he already has 26 goals and 54 points and should provide many playoff teams with a solid No. 2 center for the stretch run. Dzingel shouldn’t be forgotten either as the 26-year-old is also putting up nice numbers and again, is headed for a career year. Dzingel already has 21 goals and 41 points, and is just two goals of equaling his career-high. While not of the same magnitude as either Stone or Duchene, Dzingel could also bring back a significant return.

The Senators have a number of other players who could find themselves moved as well, including defenseman Cody Ceci. The 25-year-old will be hitting restricted free agency and with a number of young defensemen coming up through the system, the Senators may prefer to trade Ceci and avoid having to pay big money for him. Now that the team has gotten Jean-Gabriel Pageau back from injury, he too could find himself traded as a depth option for a playoff team.

Five Players To Watch For: D Cody Ceci, F Matt Duchene, F Ryan Dzingel, F Jean-Gabriel Pageau, F Mark Stone

Team Needs

1) First-rounders: Without a first-round pick for the upcoming draft, the Ottawa Senators might feel a little better if it could pick up a couple of first-rounders if they end up trading both Duchene and Stone. There is nothing the team can do to get back their own first and they will have to deal with that, especially if the Colorado Avalanche win the draft lottery with Ottawa’s pick. However, even if they can add a couple late first-rounders, that still would look better than having no first-round pick at all. The team does have a couple of second-rounders, but anything they can do to stockpile picks, especially in the first round would only help them.

2) Young NHL-established Players: It already seems like the Senators have a large number of prospects either already on the team, trying to earn more playing time or waiting with the Belleville Senators, waiting for their chance to get called up. While the jury is still out on many of those prospects, the team could easily use some young players who have already broken through to the NHL and might provide even more offense with a new chance and plenty of opportunities in Ottawa. The Senators are rumored to be asking for Jack Roslovic from Winnipeg in any deal involving Stone, but Roslovic is exactly what the team needs — a player who is closing in on 100 NHL games already and is starting to come into his own now. The Senators need more of those types of players to fill the gap that will exist if the lose Stone, Duchene, Dzingel or anyone else they can.

Jean-Gabriel Pageau Activated From Injured Reserve

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The Ottawa Senators season certainly hasn’t gone swimmingly to this point, as after a surprisingly good start the team now find themselves in last place in the entire NHL. An abysmal 4-14-1 record on the road is a huge part of that while key injuries have played another big role. One of those injuries was to Jean-Gabriel Pageau, who ruptured his Achilles tendon while performing his fitness testing before the season. Pageau has been out the entire season so far, but today was officially activated from injured reserve and will return to the lineup when the Senators take on the Carolina Hurricanes this afternoon.

Amazingly, Pageau will return less than four months after suffering the injury in mid-September. The original prognosis was that the talented center would be out a minimum of six months, but hard work has gotten him back on the ice much earlier than expected. That’s a huge boost for the Senators, as the team aren’t in the “Lose for Hughes” sweepstakes this year. The Senators famously owe their first-round pick to the Colorado Avalanche, meaning there is no reason to tank for a higher draft slot.

In fact, a little success might go a long way for the organization. Not only would winning infuse some excitement into a fan base that has been repeatedly beat over the head with scandal and rumor the last year and a half, but would also generate even more value for their potential trade chips. While many are looking at Mark Stone, Matt Duchene and Ryan Dzingel as the obvious trade chips, Pageau too may find his name thrown about in the coming weeks.

The 26-year old Pageau has one more year on his contract after this season at a $3.1MM cap hit, a more than reasonable number for a center of his ability. When healthy, Pageau is a reliable two-way option in the middle of the ice that has shown a knack for big-game performances. He led the Senators with eight goals during their 2016-17 Stanley Cup playoff run, and even scored four in ten postseason games as a rookie back in 2012-13. Those kind of contributions are exactly what teams are hoping for with deadline acquisitions, and if the team decides to hold a fire sale his name will surely be asked about.

For now, it’s just a celebration for Pageau as he returns to NHL action way ahead of schedule The Senators are expected to line him up between Zack Smith and Mikkel Boedker for this afternoon’s game.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Ottawa Senators, St. Louis Blues Put Three On Waivers

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Wednesday: All three players have cleared waivers and can be assigned to the minor leagues.

Tuesday: The Ottawa Senators have decided that two assists in 37 games from Tom Pyatt just isn’t enough as Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reported that the Senators have placed the veteran forward on waivers today. A moment later, Friedman added that the St. Louis Blues put a pair of players on waivers as well, including defenseman Chris Butler and forward Jordan Nolan. Friedman also writes that Chicago Blackhawks defenseman Jason Garrison cleared waivers.

After losing five games in a row, the move to put Pyatt on waivers comes as no surprise as general manager Pierre Dorion is obviously sending a message to head coach Guy Boucher that the team needs to turn its fortunes around as the new year comes about. Pyatt, a favorite of Boucher, has struggled offensively as he has no goals and just two assists in 37 games as a bottom-line forward, but even more disappointing is his minus-16 rating on the ice. The 31-year-old has already seen his playing time drop to under 10 minutes in the nine of the past 10 games. The move could have been made as Jean-Gabriel Pageau is expected to return to the ice soon, possibly as early as Wednesday. Pyatt is in the final year of a two-year, $2.2MM contract and could generate some interest from a team looking for some veteran depth options.

Both Butler and Nolan have already been on waivers earlier this season as both cleared to start the season. Butler, however, has already seen 12 games and with the imminent return of defenseman Carl Gunnarsson, who has missed quite a bit of time with an upper-body injury, the team was required to place the 32-year-old on waivers. As for Nolan, he has also appeared in 11 games this year and has two assists to go with 14 penalty minutes. The 29-year-old Nolan, who has played parts of eight seasons in the NHL, will likely return to San Antonio where he has seven goals and 15 points there.

Injury Notes: Bruins, Capitals, Penguins, Pageau

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The Boston Bruins should get a boost just in time for the Winter Classic on Tuesday against the Chicago Blackhawks as NHL.com’s Dan Rosen reports that Brad Marchand should be ready to go after practicing today, barring any setbacks. He missed Saturday’s game with an upper-body injury, but it looks like it wasn’t a serious issue. Marchand is having another solid campaign as he has 12 goals and 41 points in 39 games this year.

Rosen also points out that defenseman Charlie McAvoy remains questionable for the big game. The defenseman has missed two games with a lower-body injury and did not practice today. The gifted defenseman has struggled dealing with injuries as he has appeared in just 17 games this year, although he has 11 points.

  • Isabelle Khurshudyan of the Washington Post writes that Washington Capitals defenseman Matt Niskanen will be out Monday against Nashville and miss his second straight game with an undisclosed upper-body injury. However, the team got better news on Brooks Orpik, who listed as a game-time decision for Monday after missing 27 games with a right-knee injury. The scribe writes that both players practiced Sunday and are both close to returning to the team. The team has also been without Christian Djoos.
  • The Pittsburgh Penguins could be without both forward Bryan Rust and defenseman Olli Maatta on Monday as both are listed as day-to-day, according to Pittsburgh Post-Gazette’s Matt Vensel. Rust didn’t practice today with an undisclosed injury, while Maatta suffered a lower-body injury during Saturday’s game against St. Louis, but finished the game. He didn’t practice today either.
  • Bruce Garrioch of the Ottawa Sun reports that Ottawa Senators center Jean-Gabriel Pageau is close to a return. While he’s not expected to play Monday, could be back not long after that. The 26-year-old has been out all season after having surgery to repair a torn Achilles muscle. He had a six-month timetable in mid-September and is well ahead of schedule. Pageau had 14 goals and 29 points last season.

Atlantic Notes: Palat, Pageau, Dermott, Hudon, Rask

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Tampa Bay Lightning head coach Jon Cooper announced that winger Ondrej Palat is not expected to play Sunday, but after that the 27-year-old is expected to be listed as “day-to-day” and could be back soon. Palat hasn’t played since Oct. 26 when he left the game with a lower body injury and subsequently was listed out for at least four weeks. That seems about right as the team could get him back at some point this week.

Palat has appeared in just nine games this season and has failed to find the back of the net as he has just five assists in that span. The team needs the winger to return and re-establish himself in the team’s top-six as he also dealt with injuries last year as he played in 56 games, tallying only 11 goals.

Cooper also added that defenseman Anton Stralman is being re-evaluated and will be out Sunday. The 32-year-old hasn’t played since Nov. 8 with an undisclosed injury. Stralman has eight points in 16 games.

  • The Ottawa Sun’s Bruce Garrioch reports that center Jean-Gabriel Pageau, who has been out all season with a torn Achilles muscle, continues to make amazing progress as he joined the team on their four-game road trip in New York and skated with the team Sunday in a non-contact jersey. Despite a six-month timetable in mid-September, Pageau looks closer and closer to returning to the team quite a bit earlier than the original diagnosis. Garrioch also notes that Mark Stone, Colin White and Mark Borowiecki all took part in skating Sunday.
  • The Athletic’s Ian Tulloch (subscription required) breaks down the play of many of the Toronto Maple Leafs from Saturday’s game. Of note, Tulloch writes that one necessity in the near future is that Toronto must find a way to find a spot in their top-four for defenseman Travis Dermott. The 21-year-old is only averaging 17:53 of ATOI, but has been used more and more, getting 23:06 of ice time Saturday. The scribe adds that Dermott has developed into the team’s top defenseman and the Toronto needs to make adjustments accordingly, which means cutting playing time for struggling blueliners Ron Hainsey and Nikita Zaitsev.
  • After being a healthy scratch for Friday’s game, Montreal Canadiens forward Charles Hudon talked to head coach Claude Julien, who told him to be more aggressive, like he was last season when he had 126 hits, according to Montreal Gazette’s Stu Cowan. Hudon’s response was he had 13 hits in 9:09 of ice time.
  • It looks like the break that Tuukka Rask took a week ago has been paying off for the netminder. Rask has had three impressive starts since taking a critical weekend off earlier this month, including a .938 save percentage in his three appearances since his return, according to the Boston Globe’s Kevin Paul Dupont.

Atlantic Notes: Rask, Miller, Joseph, Pageau

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It looks like the Boston Bruins may get back goaltender Tuukka Rask on Tuesday after he was granted a leave of absence on Thursday for personal reasons, according to NHL.com’s Amalie Benjamin. The scribe writes that the team will talk to the veteran Monday with the hopes of his return immediately thereafter, but nothing is confirmed until then.

Rask has struggled all season before requesting a leave of absence as the veteran has a 3.05 GAA and a .901 save percentage in eight appearances, not the numbers that a player making $7MM. While the Bruins have kept Rask’s reason for the request silent, the hope is that a break may be able to help him re-focus on the season.

The Bruins have been fortunate to have signed Jaroslav Halak, who has been impressive and looks to have seized the starting job away from the struggling Rask. Halak has a 1.86 GAA and a .941 save percentage in 10 appearances. He stopped 40 of 41 shots in Saturday’s victory over Toronto and without Rask on hand, is expected to play back-to-back against Vegas today.

  • Benjamin also reports that Boston Bruins head coach Bruce Cassidy said that defenseman Kevan Miller could return by the end of the team’s four-game road trip that starts on Wednesday. Miller hasn’t played in a game since Oct. 18 with an undisclosed injury.
  • The Tampa Bay Lightning finds itself thrilled with the constant improvements of rookie forward Mathieu Joseph, who after going scoreless in 13 straight games, broke through to have scored four goals in the last four games, according to The Athletic’s Greg Auman (subscription required). The surprising thing is that after 13 scoreless games, the deep Lightning team continued to play him. “My thing with that is if you’re doing all the right things and you’re getting chances and chances and chances, eventually they’re going to go in,” head coach Jon Cooper said. “So there are probably plays he made that should have gone in the net but didn’t, and all of a sudden, plays that maybe don’t go in the net do. That’s just the way it works. He got rewarded tonight. I’m a big believer that if you keep putting yourself in the right position, good things are going to happen.”
  • The Ottawa Senators got a nice piece of news today as center Jean-Gabriel Pageau was seen taking the ice alongside defenseman Ben Harpur and forward Zack Smith, according to TSN’s Todd White. It was reported that Pageau, who suffered a torn Achilles on Sept. 13, would miss six months, however, Pageau has made remarkable progress. While skating is just one step on his way to a full recovery, it’s a good sign to see him back on the ice. Head coach Guy Boucher said that even the medical staff has been impressed by his recovery, although he’s still a long ways off.

Jean-Gabriel Pageau Suffers Injury In Fitness Testing

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Friday: The Senators have confirmed that Pageau suffered a torn Achilles, and will miss a minimum of six months.

Thursday: For Ottawa Senators fans, today is not a good day. After the team dealt away franchise defenseman Erik Karlsson, they have also been dealt a hefty injury blow during the first day of training camp. Jean-Gabriel Pageau was injured during the morning fitness testing, and Renaud Lavoie of TVA Sports is reporting that he could need surgery and a four to six month recovery timeline to repair an Achilles tendon.

Pageau was penciled into the second line center role for the Senators this season and is coming off another fine season with 14 goals and 29 points. A playoff hero in 2017, the 25-year old is a solid two-way player that can take on tough defensive matchups and be a contributor in all situations. If he’s forced to miss months that role probably will go to newly acquired Chris Tierney, and clearly weakens the Senators overall.

With just two years remaining on his current contract Pageau was repeatedly asked about in trade talks this offseason and is still likely one of the Senators biggest chips. Many teams would love to have a reliable player like him in the bottom half of their lineup, especially given his relatively inexpensive $3.1MM cap hit. With an injury like this those phone calls may stop for a while, but not forever. If the Senators are truly committed to an entire rebuild, you can bet Pageau’s name will resurface down the line as a potential option for teams looking at center help.

The team will address the recovery timeline tomorrow.

Ottawa Senators Preparing For Huge Roster Turnover

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Late last night after much of the hockey news had died down for the day, the Ottawa Senators released a video of defenseman Mark Borowiecki and owner Eugene Melnyk discussing the future of the organization. Touching on subjects from dressing room leadership to overcoming the low expectations for 2018-19, Melnyk made clear he would be staying with the franchise for a long time and will not move it from Ottawa. He also noted an interesting point about roster construction, explaining how quickly the rebuild will get underway:

This coming year we’re going to have 10 out of the 22 players are going to be new. Meaning they’re either rookies or they’ve played maybe under 10 games last year. Then the following year, it’s going to go up to about 15 of the 22, maybe 16. So that’s a total turnover you know, which is exactly what should be in a rebuild. 

Stripping your roster down to the studs and letting a group of young players grow and mature together is often a strategy for struggling teams who want to rebuild, and the Senators saw a similar situation play out just down the road in Toronto a few years ago. In fact, when the Maple Leafs traveled to Ottawa to open the season in 2016 they had seven rookies in the lineup including Auston Matthews, who scored four times despite the loss. That would appear to be the blue print for Melnyk and the Senators as they look to pull a similarly speedy rebuild.

The question though becomes how do they achieve the goal of having 10 rookies on the roster at the beginning of the year. The team currently has at least 19 players—Mark Stone, Bobby Ryan, Matt Duchene, Zack Smith, Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Ryan Dzingel, Tom Pyatt, Magnus Paajarvi, Max McCormick, Colin White, Marian Gaborik, Erik Karlsson, Cody Ceci, Chris Wideman, Ben Harpur, Thomas Chabot, Craig Anderson, Mike Condon and Borowiecki—who played more than 10 games for the organization last season and should at the very least be battling for roster spots. While perhaps Melnyk was exaggerating and players like White and Chabot would still be considered “rookies” given their relative youth and inexperience, it seems likely that there will be substantial turnover in the rest of the group.

We’ve heard for months that Karlsson may be on the block, speculation that will only increase given his complete absence from this video, but other players including Stone and Duchene are both heading into the final years of their contracts and could be shipped out for prospects and picks. If the Senators are committed to a full scorched earth rebuild, they are powerful assets in trade.

At the very least, we should expect the Senators to be involved in trade talks all season. Even though Melnyk and Borowiecki seem excited about playing the underdogs this year, the amount of roster turnover that the owner mentions isn’t possible without some transactions coming through the pipe quickly. Camp starts in just a few days and Senators rookies should be licking their chops on the opportunity that is apparently there for the taking.

Islanders Must Focus On Moving Forward After Tavares

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When the New York Islanders lost John Tavares, the franchise found itself in a worse situation than it had hoped. The team that struggled a year ago on defense and in goal now lost their top scorer and seem to lack identity (except in the front office). The team will likely make Calder Trophy winner Mathew Barzal the new face of the franchise, but without Tavares, there remains a significant hole in their lineup.

While it seems likely Barzal will replace Tavares as the team’s top center, the real question is who will take over as the team’s No. 2 center? One positive note for New York is that the team has almost $20MM in available cap space after Tavares opted to go to Toronto and that’s after the signings of Valtteri Filppula, Leo Komarov, Robin Lehner and Tom Kuhnhackl as well as trading for Matt Martin. Regardless, none of those players are candidates to fill that No. 2 center position. The team does have restricted free agent Brock Nelson as a candidate to fill that role, but his status is up in the air.

The Athletic’s Shayna Goldman (subscription required) suggests if the Islanders want to make some type of impact move to suggest to their fan base that they are ready to move on (because bringing in Filppula, Komorov, Kuhnhackl, Lehner and Martin didn’t accomplish that), they must look to the trade market where there are a number of interesting names that the team could look to acquire, especially at the center position to show they are moving forward.

The top name is interesting enough as Goldman suggests that New York looks at the Ottawa Senators who are looking to cast off players left and right. Already having moved on from Mike Hoffman and in current trade talks with Erik Karlsson, the scribe writes the Islanders could attempt to make an offer to pry centers Matt Duchene or Jean-Gabriel Pageau away.

While Duchene would probably cost the Islanders quite a bit, he could potentially be a reasonable replacement for Tavares. Even though Ottawa gave up a lot to acquire Duchene less than a year ago, they may be ready to move on from him as he will be a free agent after this season and he might not want to return after having to endure the many problems that Ottawa has dealt with in the past year. However in New York, the team could match him with players like Anders Lee, Jordan Eberle or Josh Bailey and get solid production from him and the team would have the cap room to lock him up. The only downside to acquiring Duchene (despite the likely high cost) would be the team would have to sign him as well as Lee and Eberle next season as all three would be unrestricted free agents for the 2019-20 season. Pageau would be a much cheaper option, but lacks much upside if they want to use him as a second-line center.

One other option would be to pry Tyler Johnson away from the Tampa Bay Lightning, especially with the team attempting to clear out cap space to accommodate Karlsson. Johnson would provide significant value as a second-line center as well, but is locked up for six years at $5MM AAV, so they would be able to hold onto him for a long time.

While finding a replacement for Tavares, the team must also attempt to fix their other issues as they’ve done little to address their defense or goaltending. Adding Robin Lehner helps a little, but after the 26-year-old suffered through a disastrous season (3.01 GAA and a .908 save percentage), a Lehner-Thomas Greiss combination doesn’t sound particularly thrilling. The defense also needs help. The team lost Calvin de Haan to Carolina, although they did bring back Thomas Hickey. Although the team has high hopes that Ryan Pulock is ready to move into a top-four role immediately, his defense has always been suspect, so he isn’t likely to improve the Islanders defensive deficiencies. Andrew Gross of Newsday writes that the team should consider looking into acquiring Justin Faulk from the Carolina Hurricanes as he would provide that stability and would look good as the No. 1 piece along with Hickey, Pulock, Johnny Boychuk and Nick Leddy.

Regardless, with few quality options available to them on the free agent market, the team likely has little choice to make a deal.

 

 

Team Canada Names First 18 Players For IIHF World Championship

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April 16: Add Josh Bailey to the Canadian team, as the New York Islanders forward has agreed to join his teammates for the tournament. Unfortunately, Hockey Canada announced that Dunn would be unable to participate, meaning another spot has been opened up on the blueline.

April 12: For all those players who have missed the playoffs, the World Championships provide some respite and a chance to play some more meaningful hockey. For some, it is the highest level of international competition they will ever play in, for others just another chance to represent their country on the world stage.

Team Canada has released a list of 18 players set to compete in the upcoming tournament, with more to come as the playoffs eliminate teams.

Goaltenders:

Darcy Kuemper, Arizona Coyotes

Defensemen:

Thomas Chabot, Ottawa Senators
Vince Dunn, St. Louis Blues
Colton Parayko, St. Louis Blues
Joel Edmundson, St. Louis Blues
Aaron Ekblad, Florida Panthers
Darnell Nurse, Edmonton Oilers
Ryan Pulock, New York Islanders

Forwards:

Mathew Barzal, New York Islanders
Anthony Beauvillier, New York Islanders
Jordan Eberle, New York Islanders
Bo Horvat, Vancouver Canucks
Connor McDavid, Edmonton Oilers
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Edmonton Oilers
Brayden Schenn, St. Louis Blues
Jaden Schwartz, St. Louis Blues
Ryan O’Reilly, Buffalo Sabres
Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Ottawa Senators

The Canadians will be coached by Bill Peters (Carolina Hurricanes), with Mike Yeo (St. Louis Blues) and Bob Boughner (Florida Panthers) assisting. They obviously will have more players added to this group, but already it is quite formidable. The forwards are especially strong, with a half dozen excellent options for the four center positions.

This will be O’Reilly’s fourth straight appearance for Canada, winning two golds and a silver in the last three tournaments. Last year’s squad featured Calvin Pickard and Eric Comrie in net, but both are heading to the playoffs with their respective AHL teams. Chad Johnson, the other goaltender to play last year, is coming off a terrible season in Buffalo.

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