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Negotiation Notes: Backstrom, Markstrom, Babcock

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Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman had plenty to say on last night’s edition of “Saturday Headlines”, but none more important that news on negotiations between the Washington Capitals and star center Nicklas Backstrom. Despite his age, the 32-year-old Backstrom will be one of, if not the top player available should he hit the free agent market this coming summer. One of the top players in Capitals history, Backstrom is the epitome of consistency as a reliable 70+ point threat every year and he has shown no signs of slowing down. Washington previously stated that they would be patient with contract talks with both Backstrom and starting goalie Braden Holtby, but Friedman reports that negotiations are officially underway with Backstrom at least. On top of that, Backstrom has also elected not to use an agent for these extension talks, which could be a good indication that he is concerned more with staying in Washington than he is maximizing he free agency value. Backstrom showed a willingness to take term over money on his last deal – a ten-year, $67MM pact signed before the current eight-year limit was implemented – and he could do so again. While he won’t get a max-term offer, much less another decade deal from Washington, Backstrom also knows that he can command more than his previous $6.7MM cap hit. However, in terms of the current landscape of NHL contracts, it is very possible that Backstrom still opts to take a hometown discount to stay with the Caps that pays him below market value over a significant term, ensuring that he can stay and likely finish out his career in Washington.

  • Jacob Markstrom and the Vancouver Canucks have yet to formally begin contract extension talks, as the impending free agent goaltender has had personal issues to deal with early this season, but Friedman reports that those discussions are expected to “intensify” over the coming weeks. He believes that the Canucks, despite their depth in promising goalie prospects like Thatcher Demko and Michael DiPietro, still hope and plan on bringing Markstrom back. The team will have to make a significant commitment to do so, as the 29-year-old should draw considerable interest if he hits the open market this summer. Among impending UFA goalies, Markstrom is second only to Holtby right now in games played, with the next closest being geriatric options like Craig Anderson and Mike Smith. This is not to say that Holtby and Markstrom will be the only two keepers viewed as potential starters this summer, but he is one of a small group who can back up a claim of being an established NHL workhorse starter. Markstrom is also in the top five among potential free agent stoppers with at least ten games played in save percentage and goals against average. With relative youth and solid numbers on his side, Markstrom is easily looking at an improvement to his current three-year, $11MM contract, whether that offer comes from Vancouver or elsewhere.
  • As for a current free agent, recently-fired Toronto Maple Leafs head coach Mike Babcock, Friedman warns not to get hopes up for a quick re-location. He states that “informal feelers” have already been sent out by teams and media members alike to see where Babcock’s head is at with regards to coaching again this season. There will likely be some more coaching vacancies down the road in 2019-20 and clubs will certainly be interested in at least talking to Babcock. However, Friedman has inferred from the results of those conversations that the coach is planning to take some time off before jumping into a new gig. Those closest to Babcock do not believe that he will coach again this season. It’s worth noting as well that Babcock is still under contract with Toronto, having only been relieved of his coaching duties for now, meaning all interested teams will first have to seek permission to interview the veteran bench boss.

Snapshots: Capitals, World Juniors, CBA Talks

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Two of the biggest names among impending unrestricted free agents belong to the Washington Capitals. Long-time cornerstone Caps and Stanley Cup winners Nicklas Backstrom and Braden Holtby will both see their current contracts expire this summer, barring an extension before then. Yet, TSN’s Pierre LeBrun reports that there has been little in the way of contract talks between Washington and either Backstrom or Holtby. LeBrun states that the team has decided to be patient with the decisions, letting the season play out as a way to better gauge their needs moving forward. He adds that the team is on the same page with both camps in this regard as well. It could be that the team waits through the whole season before making a call on Backstrom and Holtby, taking both individual and team performances into account. Thus far, Holtby, 30, has struggled in net – for the second year in a row at that – posting an .884 save percentage and 3.60 GAA in eight games for the Capitals, losing three starts to 22-year-old Ilya Samsonov. Continued poor performance, especially in light of Samsonov’s strong play, could convince Washington GM Brian MacLellan that he does not need to pay the premium price required to retain the 30-year-old Holtby. Meanwhile, Backstrom is still playing at the same elite level, recording nine points in eleven games so far and leading all Capitals forwards in even strength ice time. The 32-year-old has been the epitome of consistency throughout his whole career, recording 882 points in 906 career games while skating in less than 90% of Washington’s games in a given season just once. It’s hard to say that Backstrom has ever had a bad season and it may be difficult for MacLellan and company to say goodbye to a player who has never given any indication that his days and an impact player are anywhere close to being over, unless they determine that the Capitals days as true contenders are over and the team is in need of transition. The salary cap will of course play a major role in these decisions as well. Washington has $63.5MM tied up in just 14 players next season, and likely lack the space needed to re-sign both Holtby and Backstrom while filling out the rest of the roster. Which way they go, re-signing on or the other or perhaps neither, will be a tough call and the Capitals are smart to use all of the information available, including this season’s results, to make that decision.

  • TSN colleague Bob McKenzie also notes today that Hockey Canada is in the beginning stages of forming their official roster for the 2020 World Junior Championships later this winter and are hoping that they can count on the three players currently in the NHL who also qualify for inclusion on the U-20 roster: the Coyotes’ Barrett Hayton, the Blackhawks’ Kirby Dach, and the Islanders’ Noah Dobson. The pair of centers and dynamic defensemen are each of their respective team’s top prospects, but their usage so far this season has been minimal. All three of Hayton, Dach, and Dobson have played in just two NHL games so far this year and are still eight games away from burning a year on their entry-level contracts. However, for Hayton and Dobson, McKenzie does not believe that the ten-game limit is a concern, as he doesn’t feel Arizona nor New York plan on sending their promising prospect back to the junior level. That doesn’t mean that they can’t still be loaned to Team Canada for the WJC though; it is not an uncommon practice for young pros in need of experience playing at different levels of competition instead of solely in the NHL to briefly leave their clubs for the international exhibition. With that said, both the ‘Yotes and the Isles hope to be playoff teams and may be unwilling to give up top young players mid-season, especially if they have become regular contributors. As for Dach, it is still unclear what Chicago’s intentions are this season. The youngest of the group, the No. 3 overall pick in June, Dach has spent some time in the AHL this season and has seen limited ice time in his two games with the Blackhawks. The team could still decide he would be better off with another year in the WHL, although McKenzie believes they are not yet ready to make that decision. Either way, Dach stands the best chance of participating in the WJC, given his current role in Chicago and the expectations of the team this season.
  • LeBrun also reports that, while there haven’t been any in-person meetings this month, collective bargaining continues between the NHL and NHLPA. Back in September, both the league and the players’ association declined to use their opt-out clause in the CBA, which would have prematurely ended the current agreement after this season. The decisions extended the CBA through the 2021-22 season, giving the parties plenty of time to work through their issues. However, both sides felt comfortable in declining their opt-outs as a result of positive ongoing talks and all stakeholders of hockey wanted to see that progress continue. LeBrun writes that those talks have not stalled, but are simply now ongoing in a more behind-the-scenes fashion. The hope is that the NHL and NHLPA can sort out a new collective bargaining agreement long before the September 2022 expiration date of the current deal and put to rest any thoughts of another work stoppage. Continued talks are a good sign that labor peace will come easier this time than in years past.

Early Notes: Capitals, Sbisa, Senators,

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The Washington Capitals are arriving for training camp today and doing their first press availability, including GM Brian MacLellan. Isabelle Khurshudyan of the Washington Post passes along some information from the front office executive, including an update on contract talks with Braden Holtby and Niklas Backstrom. The team will “play this out” with both players, who have just one year remaining on their respective contracts. They have made contact with Holtby’s agent already and will be speaking with Backstrom’s soon.

Khurshudyan also notes that the team is waiting to hear from the NHL with regards to Evgeny Kuznetsov, who met with commissioner Gary Bettman earlier this week. Kuznetsov was recently suspended by the IIHF for a positive cocaine test and could face further discipline from the NHL, though many—including Khurshudyan—doubt that will happen.

  • Luca Sbisa is officially back with the New York Islanders on a professional tryout, according to Andrew Gross of Newsday. Sbisa had been spotted on the ice during some informal skates prior to training camp and it was assumed he would be back, though today confirmed that belief. The 29-year old defenseman played nine games for the Islanders last season and has suited up just 39 times since the end of 2016-17.
  • The Ottawa Senators will not have a captain this season, instead naming Mark Borowiecki, Ron Hainsey and Jean-Gabriel Pageau the three alternates. Hainsey of course is a brand new face in the Senators room but has a familiarity with new head coach D.J. Smith from their time together with the Toronto Maple Leafs. An extremely vocal player on the ice, Hainsey has seen just about everything there is to see over a 1,068-game NHL career.

Braden Holtby Hoping To Remain In Washington Long-Term

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Regardless of how they perform, there will be a dark cloud hanging over the Washington Capitals throughout this coming season, or at least until they can make it go away. The Capitals have two core players heading for unrestricted free agency next summer in Braden Holtby and Nicklas Backstrom and it’s difficult to see the team finding enough cap space to bring both back at market value. Washington is currently over the salary cap approaching the start of this season and will likely be forced to make a move. Things don’t get much better a year from now, as the team has more than $62MM already committed to just 15 players. Extending two superstars while filling out the rest of the roster would be a daunting task.

For his part, Holtby hopes that the Capitals can find a way to figure it out. Speaking with Tarik El-Bashir of The Athletic, the All-Star goaltender stated that he would like to spend his whole career in D.C. if it were up to him. “This is all I know. I would love to (re-sign), I think that’s pretty clear.” Holtby has enjoyed nine great years and counting in Washington, with a Stanley Cup, a Vezina Trophy, a Jennings Trophy, and two all-pro nods to show for it. The team is set up nicely to continue being competitive and Holtby has no reason to want to leave.

However, he was also very honest that he knows that NHL hockey is a business and he’s aware that it’s not always as easy as staying with your preferred team. Negotiations will begin soon between GM Brian MacLellan and agent Dave Kaye and Holtby only hopes that the two sides can “get on the same page before the season starts and go from there.” The veteran keeper does not want talks to become a distraction, telling El-Bashir “The main thing is we don’t want it to affect the team at all. I think that’s pretty universal… to not let it be a distraction, and to go out and win games.”

Holtby also surely knows that sometimes the numbers do not line up. What is best for the player is oftentimes not what is best for the team and vice versa. Rival goalie Sergei Bobrovsky showed that this summer, deciding to leave the Columbus Blue Jackets after many accomplished seasons to sign a massive seven-year, $70MM deal with the Florida Panthers. Holtby has already been working with a cap hit of $6.1MM on his last contract, signed five years ago – prior to both his individual award-winning seasons and the Caps’ Cup run. As such, that $10MM cap hit could very well be in the target range of Holtby’s camp. However, Washington sees a soon-to-be 30-year-old goaltender whose numbers have slipped relatively significantly over the past two years. They also see a promising 22-year-old Ilya Samsonov in the pipeline, a first-round investment hungry for an NHL opportunity. This will drive down the price that Washington is willing to offer.

Given their shared success, it is no wonder that Holtby would like to stay in Washington and safe to assume that the Capitals feel the same. However, with many financial factors in play, many outside the control of either side, it will not be easy to make an extension work. Getting off to a strong start, as Holtby noted, will be key, but this will likely be a long, arduous negotiation that lasts well into the season and, even if it doesn’t distract Holtby and his teammates, will surely weigh on Caps fans. In the end, the two sides will have to land at a perfect point that makes sense for both sides, as there is no wiggle room for a “winner” in the negotiations when it comes to Washington’s salary cap crunch.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Washington Capitals

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Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2019-20 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Washington Capitals

Current Cap Hit: $82,864,294 (over the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

G Ilya Samsonov (two years, $925K)
F Jonas Siegenthaler (one year, $714K)

Potential Bonuses

Samsonov: $550K
Siegenthaler: $83K

The one failing of the Washington Capitals and their dominance of their run over the years has been their inability, lately, to develop young talent that can step in. Again there are few players on entry-level contracts who can help ease the Capitals’ salary cap. However, the team believes that they might be close to bringing in their top prospect in Samsonov. The talented Russian goaltender finally arrived in North America last season and had mixed results in his first year in the AHL. However, Samsonov is likely to get a long look in training camp this season and even if he doesn’t make the team, he’s due to make his NHL debut at some point this season. After all, the Capitals must figure out quickly whether they have their future No. 1 netminder.

Siegenthaler finally looks ready to step into a permanent role on the Capitals’ blueline. The 22-year-old showed promise last year in 26 regular season games and even saw some playoff action with four games last season. The defensive defenseman is a perfect addition to a defense that is still dealing with injuries.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F Nicklas Backstrom ($6.7MM, UFA)
G Braden Holtby ($6.1MM, UFA)
D Radko Gudas ($2.35MM, UFA)
D Christian Djoos ($1.25MM, RFA)
F Chandler Stephenson ($1.05MM, RFA)
F Travis Boyd ($800K, RFA)
F Brendan Leipsic ($700K, RFA)

Washington will have a big decision to make next offseason as they have two of their core pieces who will become unrestricted free agents and with serious cap issue for several years coming, the team will almost assuredly have to make a tough decision and are likely to lose at least one of them for nothing next summer. Neither is likely to be traded considering the team is strong enough to compete for a Stanley Cup, but the team just can’t afford both. The most likely scenario is the team finds a way to retain Backstrom, but will be forced to let Holtby go, considering that top goaltenders have been cashing in and the Capitals likely won’t have the money to keep him around. Of course much could change, but considering that Washington does have a top goaltending prospect who is almost ready for the NHL, losing Holtby might be an easier blow to take than losing Backstrom.

The remaining group will have to prove their worth. The most interesting player could be Gudas, who is considered a likeable locker room guy, but the Capitals will have to wait and see how well the veteran blueliner fits in with their defense and what the cost of retaining him in the future will be.

Two Years Remaining

F Alex Ovechkin ($9.54MM, UFA)
F Jakub Vrana ($3.35MM, RFA)

While it’s hard to imagine a Capitals team without their star in Ovechkin seems highly unlikely, Washington will have to see whether they can convince their star to re-sign. He’ll be 36 years old by the time he signs his next contract, which means he has quite a few options and while re-signing with Washington is the most likely possibility, the veteran has a number of options which could include returning to Russia to finish his career. Signing with Washington also could hinge on how the Capitals will look in two years. If the team looks like an aging team that has little real chance at winning a title, Ovechkin could also look elsewhere in the NHL for a last chance for a Stanley Cup. The Athletic’s Jesse Granger suggested a while back that Ovechkin might be a good fit with Vegas in a couple of years, suggesting that his relationship with George McPhee could be enough to bring him over there.

The team needs Vrana to continue his development. A player who struggled and was a big question mark at this time a season ago, Vrana answered a lot of questions last year with a 24-goal, 47-point season. If he can continue that success and be a consistent top-six player, the team will likely have hand him a long-term deal in two years.

Three Years Remaining

D Michal Kempny ($2.5MM, UFA)
G Pheonix Copley ($1.1MM, UFA)
F Nic Dowd ($750K, UFA)

The team lacks many major contracts here, but if Kempny continues to prove to be a solid defensive presence on Washington’s blueline, the team may have to hand out a significant contract. While the defender will be out for the start of the season and remains an unknown after a season-ending hamstring injury, he has proven to be quite reliable since the Capitals acquired him back at the trade deadline in 2018. Copley, who posted solid numbers as a full-time back-up goalie, likely will hold down his job, but will be challenged by Samsonov, who the team hopes will be their goalie of the future.

Four Or More Years Remaining

D John Carlson ($8MM through 2025-26)
F Evgeny Kuznetsov ($7.8MM through 2024-25)
F T.J. Oshie ($5.75MM through 2024-25)
F Tom Wilson ($5.17MM through 2023-24)
D Dmitry Orlov ($5.1MM through 2022-23)
F Lars Eller ($3.5MM through 2022-23)
F Carl Hagelin ($2.75MM through 2022-23)
F Richard Panik ($2.75MM through 2022-23)
D Nick Jensen ($2.5MM through 2022-23)
F Garnet Hathaway ($1.5MM through 2022-23)

The bulk of the team’s contracts are here with plenty of money being dedicated to the team between the next four to seven years. Many of these players will likely not be worth the money they are paying for them by that time and much will depend on whether Washington can supplement the team with young, cheap talent. However, the core of the team comes down to Carlson, Kuznetsov, Oshie and Wilson, all of which are currently key to the team’s status as threats to capture another Stanley Cup in the next few years. Carlson, who hits 30 at midseason, put up another phenomenal numbers last year, scoring 13 goals and a career-high 70 points. Kuznetsov had a slight down year, but could be a candidate for a big bounce-back season. Oshie continues to put up solid numbers, 25 goals last season, but will turn 33 during the season and will be 39 before his contract expires, which could go bad quickly. Wilson’s contract doesn’t look nearly as bad, especially after posting career highs in goals (22) and points (40).

Orlov saw his goal-scoring numbers drop, but he still has been a key figure on the team’s defense. Although he saw his ATOI drop by a minute in a half, the team still believes that Orlov is a top-pairing defender. The team hopes that Jensen might provide the same value at a much cheaper price. Jensen, acquired from Detroit and immediately extended for four years, gives Washington even more depth on the team’s blueline. He only averaged 17 minutes in his 20 games with Washington, but he could return to the 20 minutes he was averaging when he was with the Red Wings.

Washington has started to put more effort into bringing in cheaper players, who they think can contribute to the team long-term such as Hagelin and Panik, who were both locked up as the team believes both can contribute as middle-six players for a number of years.

Buyouts

None

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Still To Sign

None

Best Value: Wilson
Worst Value: Oshie

Looking Ahead

The Capitals are a team that have made it clear years ago that they were going for it. They succeeded finally, winning a Stanley Cup after the 2017-18 season. However, they looked just as formidable last year, despite a first-round exit in a grueling seven-game series against the Carolina Hurricanes. However, expectations continue to be high that this veteran laden club can continue to be one of the top teams in the Eastern Conference. With a number of their players already in their 30’s, the question will end up being how long can they keep this up? The team is capped out and will be for years to come, so they could lose quite a bit of talent over the next few years and with one of the weakest group of prospects in the league, the team will have to be quite clever with the cap to keep the team relevant.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Capitals To Start Backstrom, Holtby Negotiations Next Month

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The Washington Capitals have been busy this offseason trying to find a way to improve their roster on the fringes without much financial flexibility. After signing core players like Evgeny Kuznetsov, T.J. Oshie, Dmitry Orlov, Tom Wilson and John Carlson to long-term contracts over the last few years the team has very little cap space to play with. Still, they found a way to fit a new contract for Jakub Vrana into the mix while adding players like Richard Panik for relatively little cost. Now with their group essentially set for the regular season, attention will have to turn to two other key members of the squad who are on expiring deals.

Nicklas Backstrom and Braden Holtby, arguably the two most important players to the franchise other that Alex Ovechkin over the last decade, are both entering their final years before unrestricted free agency. Speaking with Tom Gulitti of NHL.com, Capitals GM Brian MacLellan explained that the team will be opening discussions with both players in early September before training camp begins. While that doesn’t mean deals will immediately get completed, Gulitti did point out that MacLellan didn’t rule out signing at least one of them before the season begins in October.

Though Backstrom has been somewhat in Ovechkin’s shadow his entire career, there is little doubt that he has been one of the very best players in the game since entering the league in 2007. Over his 895-game career, the 31-year old Swede has 873 points and received votes for the Selke Trophy as one of the league’s best defensive forwards nine different times. What Ovechkin brings every night in a goal scoring role, Backstrom has delivered through his deft playmaking, recording at least 50 assists in nine different seasons. His career-high came in 2009-10 when he put up 101 points including 66 at even-strength.

There is a case to be made that Backstrom will be Hall of Fame worthy when he finally hangs up his skates, something that would be even more meaningful if he plays his entire career with the Capitals. Currently carrying a $6.7MM cap hit however, he would likely need a raise on any extension.

Holtby on the other hand is in a bit of a different situation. The 29-year old goaltender has been outstanding over his nine-year career with the capitals, posting a single season save percentage under .911 just once throughout. A finalist for the Vezina Trophy in back-to-back seasons he took home the award in 2016 when he went 48-9-7 for the Capitals. Holtby already has more than 250 wins in his career and will climb into the top-50 all-time in that category this season. He too would surely welcome the chance to stay in Washington, but given the contract that Sergei Bobrovsky just secured on the open market one has to wonder whether the Capitals will be able to fit him in.

Seven years and $70MM took Bobrovsky—who is almost exactly a year older than Holtby, meaning they would be hitting the open market at the same age—to the Florida Panthers and set the market for the Capitals netminder. With Washington grooming top prospect Ilya Samsonov as a future NHL starter it might not make sense to make that kind of commitment to Holtby. Still, perhaps the veteran goaltender would welcome a short-term deal in order to stay in Washington and continue to compete at the highest level. There’s no telling when Samsonov will be ready to take over (if ever), given his extremely limited sample in North America.

The Capitals do have a fair amount of money to use next season but have to consider that Ovechkin himself is only two years away from unrestricted free agency. When talks start with Holtby and Backstrom the team will get a better idea of where they stand and whether or not they are even in the same ballpark.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Metropolitan Notes: Jones & Werenski, Capitals Goalies, Shattenkirk

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After years of being paired together, Seth Jones and Zach Werenski saw some time apart. Over a three year period, Jones and Werenski spent 75 percent of their 5-on-5 time together and were almost inseparable. The two star defenseman stayed together on the top pairing line. However, that changed a bit last year. Jones and Werenski were split up sometimes as the two ended up spending just 57.7 percent of the time as Werenski, who was working on his defensive game, was often paired with Ryan Murray or David Savard.

The Athletic’s Alison Lukan (subscription required) analyzes whether the pair should be kept together or the split should finally be made and have each one of them on separate defensive lines. She writes that while they were more successful when they were together, the Jones and Murray combination and the Werenski and Savard combinations were among the top three combinations in terms of getting good chances and converting. While the split up likely affected Jones and Werenski’s goal-scoring last season, it created a deeper defense overall.

However, Lukan does note that Werenski’s defensive numbers actually dropped last season when not playing alongside Jones and considering that’s his weakness, Columbus might have be better off keeping the pair together. The Blue Jackets overall defense is improving and the combination of Murray and Markus Nutivaara actually put up solid numbers together as well and might serve the team even better as the second pairing. Of course, no one really knows what head coach John Tortorella is thinking.

  • In his most recent mailbag series, The Athletic’s Tarik El-Bashir (subscription required) comments on the goaltending depth in the Washington Capitals’ system. The team has a number of young goaltenders, including Ilya Samsonov, who they hope is the goaltender of the future. The team also houses Pheonix Copley and AHL All-Star Vitek Vanecek. However, El-Bashir points out that trading away some of their goaltending depth is extremely unlikely considering the team doesn’t know what will happen with current starter Braden Holtby, who will be an unrestricted free agent next season. With starting goaltender salaries beginning to skyrocket, it seems unlikely the team would be able to retain him, but if the Capitals win another Stanley Cup title this year, then things might change. Of course if Holtby does leave, then is Samsonov ready? If not, then the team might have to turn to Copley or Vanecek or even look elsewhere.
  • Chris Ryan of NJ.com writes that it’s highly unlikely that the New Jersey Devils consider signing defenseman Kevin Shattenkirk, who became a free agent after the New York Rangers bought him out last week. The Devils courted back in 2017 when Shattenkirk was the top defensive free agent and might be inclined to add him once again. However, considering the changes in the last two years, there is little need to bring Shattenkirk in. In those two years, the team has brought in P.K. Subban, Sami Vatanen, and Will Butcher as well as drafted Ty Smith and seen the emergence of Damon Severson.

Eastern Notes: McAvoy, Carlo, Kreider, Samsonov

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There are quite a few restricted free agents that still haven’t been signed yet, but the Boston Bruins still have two of them in defensemen Charlie McAvoy and Brandon Carlo and the Boston Globe’s Matt Porter suggests that fans may have to sit through not seeing them at training camp and potentially even having them sit out like William Nylander did last year with the Toronto Maple Leafs.

Porter suggests that McAvoy could be looking for similar money to that of Jacob Trouba, who signed with the New York Rangers for seven years at $8MM AAV. However, a holdout might be necessary because Trouba had the benefit of an arbitration hearing deadline and had all the leverage on his side. That isn’t necessarily the case with McAvoy who doesn’t have arbitration rights and whose only leverage would be holding out. Carlo, an improving defenseman, could be looking for $4MM per season in a long-term deal.

Regardless, the Bruins already tight against the cap for the next few years, need to make sure they don’t overpay for the two defensemen, which might require the team to unload another player down the road.

  • In his Saturday’s Slapshots column, New York Post’s Larry Brooks mentions that the New York Rangers and Chris Kreider’s agent Matt Keator, haven’t had a conversation yet about what it would take to sign the 28-year-old to a long-term contract. While Brooks believes that is strange that both sides haven’t spoken yet, he believes that both sides are content to go into the season with Kreider in the last year of his current contract. The Rangers would be hard-pressed to sign Kreider to a long-term deal after handing out long-term deals to Artemi Panarin and Trouba and a number of talented young forwards who will eventually have to be paid down the road as well.
  • With a tumultuous offseason ahead for the Washington Capitals in the goaltending category with Braden Holtby expected to become an unrestricted free agent, The Athletic’s Tarik El-Bashir (subscription required) writes in a mailbag column that he wouldn’t be surprised if star goaltending prospect Ilya Samsonov could win the backup goaltending job in training camp. It would help the team determine whether the 22-year-old might be ready to take over as the team’s starting goaltender in 2020-21. Samsonov had an up-and-down first season in North America last season, putting up a .898 save percentage in 37 games with the Hershey Bears, but was much more impressive in the second half. However, there is no guarantee that he is ready for a back-up NHL role yet, so don’t count out Pheonix Copley.

Snapshots: De Haan, Engelland, Capitals

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While defenseman Calvin de Haan was deemed as likely to miss the start of next season after undergoing shoulder surgery back in May, he told reporters, including Scott Powers of The Athletic (Twitter link) that he’s hopeful to be ready to go when the puck drops in October.  The initial timeline for recovery was four-to-six months so if he does get the green light to play to start the season, he’ll be pretty close to the best-case scenario.  The Blackhawks acquired the 28-year-old earlier this summer from Carolina and with them starting the season in the Czech Republic, it’s certainly possible that they could hold him out of their opener and give him nearly an extra week to further recover.

Elsewhere around the league:

  • While many expected that veteran defenseman Deryk Engelland would end up staying with the Golden Knights, he told Ben Gotz of the Las Vegas Review-Journal that he still received one-year offers from other teams this summer. However, he ultimately waited for Vegas to clear out David Clarkson’s contract before signing a one-year, bonus-laden deal to stick around.  While he’ll be 38 by the end of next season, Engelland admitted that he’s not viewing the upcoming campaign as his final year and that he anticipates playing another season beyond this one, preferably in Vegas.
  • Although the Capitals need to clear up a bit of salary cap space over the next couple of months, that’s not going to be their only priority the rest of this offseason. Tarik El-Bashir of The Athletic notes (subscription required) that GM Brian MacLellan plans to sit down with center Nicklas Backstrom and goaltender Braden Holtby next month to begin the process of discussing their futures with the team beyond 2019-20.  Both players are slated to become unrestricted free agents next summer and will be looking for raises on their current deals ($6.7MM for Backstrom, $6.1MM for Holtby).  With Washington’s tight salary cap situation, they may not be able to afford to give both the pay increases they may be seeking.

Arbitration Notes: Departures, Capitals, Sabres

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It’s no secret that salary arbitration is not a friendly process. If a player does make it all the way through the hearing, that means that they’ve sat through a presentation by their own team about just how bad they are compared to other similar players. While teams and players often use the threat of the unknown of an arbitrator’s decision to move contract talks along, the potential unpleasantness of a hearing is also plenty of motivation to come to terms. Case in point: Colorado’s Sheldon Dries, who today settled on a one-year, two-way contract worth $735K. Dries’ contract comes in just $35K above the absolute worst possible outcome in an arbitration hearing, yet he opted not to argue his case in hopes of a better outcome. Why? Likely to avoid the breakdown in a relationship between he and the Avalanche if the hearing got ugly. It’s more common than it may seem – The Athletic’s Craig Custance crunched the numbers and found that the vast majority of players who go through an arbitration hearing end up leaving that team, one way or another.

Over the past ten years, 27 players have gone into a hearing. Not all of those players required an arbitrator’s award, but any resulting settlements still came after the unfortunate back-and-forth. Of those 27 players, Custance found that 14 were on new teams within a year and 21 were on new teams within three years. All of last summer’s cases – Winnipeg’s Jacob Trouba, Ottawa’s Cody Ceci, Calgary’s Brett Kulak, and Dallas’ Gemel Smith – are on new teams now. In fact, of the 27 players who have reached a hearing since 2009, no player before 2015 remains on the team that the faced off with and only four players since still remain on good terms with their club: Nashville’s Craig Smith and Viktor Arvidsson, Washington’s Braden Holtby, and Vegas’ Nate Schmidt. This all goes to show that arbitration can be a dangerous method of negotiating for teams, even if the goal is to settle before an arbitrator’s decision. The numbers convincingly imply that an arbitration hearing is the death knell for a player’s relationship with his team. As far as this off-season goes, this analysis doesn’t bode well for Andrew Copp and the Jets, Christian Djoos and the Capitals, and Evan Rodrigues and the Sabres, all of whom not only went to hearings already this summer, but whose awards all favored the team more so than the player. With ten potential cases still to go, there could be even more players who one day look back at this off-season as the beginning of the end.

  • The Capitals may very well end up back in front of an arbitrator before long, with a case against forward Chandler Stephenson scheduled for August 1st. Although the decision in the Djoos case – a $1.25MM award against a $1.35MM midpoint – favored the team, it still puts them in a difficult situation regarding the salary cap and eliminates some hope that a resolution with Stephenson could come prior to a hearing. Washington is currently more than $300K over the salary cap ceiling after signing Djoos. While young defenseman Jonas Siegenthaler can be returned to the AHL without the threat of waivers for a $714K drop to get under the cap, it would leave the Capitals with just six defensemen. All of Washington’s 14 NHL forwards, including Stephenson, would be subject to waivers, although the team would likely want to carry that many forwards anyway. It’s a difficult conundrum not made any easier by the unknown of Stephenson’s contract either. The 25-year-old forward recorded 18 points in 67 games in 2017-18 and another 11 points in 62 games this past season. He will likely seek a salary of $1MM or more, a number that Washington simply cannot palate. Asked who the team would choose if faced with a choice between trading away Djoos or Stephenson to open up cap space and roster flexibility, NBC Sports’ J.J. Regan did not hesitate to say that Stephenson would be the one dealt. Defense is in short supply for the Capitals and Djoos is a proven starter. Stephenson on the other hand would be an expendable piece in a deep forward corps. It may not matter though, as moving Stephenson alone is unlikely to be a sufficient answer to Washington’s cap troubles.
  • If you think the Capitals having two cases is bad, wait until you hear about the Sabres. Like Washington, Buffalo has already been through one hearing this summer with forward Evan Rodrigues, landing a $2MM award against a $2.075MM midpoint. It was somewhat of a surprising decision and may have given GM Jason Botterill and company some confidence moving forward. That could wind up being a problem for all parties involved, as three of the remaining ten scheduled cases are also Sabres players: forward Remi Elie, goalie Linus Ullmark, and defenseman Jake McCabe. If Buffalo goes to hearing with even one more of these players, never mind all three, it could be a bad look for the organization and could cause a breakdown in numerous player relationships. However, if the team continues to win their arbitration battles, it would be a major help this season, as the team has just over $3MM in cap space left to sign the trio. It’s a long-term risk for a short-term gain for the Sabres.

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