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Mark Scheifele

Central Notes: Jets, Zhigalov, Bichsel

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The futures of Connor Hellebuyck and Mark Scheifele with the Jets has been a source of speculation all summer with no extensions in place as they enter the final year of their contracts.  GM Kevin Cheveldayoff told Pierre LeBrun and Michael Russo of The Athletic (subscription link) that he plans to meet with both players once training camp gets underway to continue talks on a new deal.  After trading Pierre-Luc Dubois and buying out Blake Wheeler, Winnipeg’s roster looks a bit weaker on paper heading into the season but having Hellebuyck and Scheifele around would certainly help their chances of making the playoffs.  At this point, they’re expected to be on the roster when the regular season starts whether or not an extension is in place.

Elsewhere in the Central:

  • Avalanche prospect Ivan Zhigalov was supposed to play in Belarus this season but the deal ultimately fell through. However, it appears as if he has found a new place to play as McKeen’s Brock Otten reports (Twitter link) that the netminder will suit up for USHL Tri-City in 2023-24.  The 20-year-old was the final pick of the 2022 draft (225th overall) and spent last season with OHL Kingston where he posted a 3.59 GAA with a .889 SV% in 45 games.  The Avs have until June 1st to sign Zhigalov to an entry-level deal.
  • Stars prospect Lian Bichsel underwent ankle surgery back in the spring but he has been cleared to return as the team posted on Twitter that the blueliner skated in Dallas for the first time on Friday. The 19-year-old was the 18th pick last year and spent last season in Leksands’ system, playing in 42 games at the SHL level.  There was a report back in August that suggested Bichsel won’t go back there for the upcoming season if he doesn’t land a roster spot with Dallas but instead, he’ll go to Rogle, another SHL squad.

Winnipeg Jets To Be Patient With Connor Hellebuyck, Mark Scheifele

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Connor Hellebuyck and Mark Scheifele have been in trade rumors all summer long. And Sportsnet’s Ken Wiebe says that training camp isn’t putting any pressure on the Winnipeg Jets to find a deal. Wiebe says that the Jets don’t want to make a rash decision regarding their top center and goaltender, especially following the trading of Pierre-Luc Dubois, Scheifele’s former number-two, to the Los Angeles Kings.

Instead, Wiebe expects both Scheifele and Hellebuyck to attend training camp, where reporters and fans should be able to get a much better sense of what path forward the players may prefer. The team remains open to both trades and possible contract extensions, although the price of either option would be steep. How the Jets handle Hellebuyck and Scheifele’s situation will be very interesting to follow, as it could be a strong indicator of the team’s goals over the next few years.

There’s no denying the impact that Hellebuyck or Scheifele makes on a day-to-day basis. Hellebuyck ranks second in wins over the last five seasons, behind only Andrei Vasilevskiy, and his .916 save percentage ranks sixth among all goalies with 150 or more games played in that span. He won the Vezina Trophy only four seasons ago and finished third in Vezina voting this year, marking the fourth time he’s finished in the top five.

And while Hellebuyck has been a stone wall in net, Scheifele has been the team’s goal-scorer. He netted 42 goals in 81 games last season, his first time breaking the 40-goal mark. He’s reached 272 career goals, all coming with the Jets, placing him just 56 goals behind Ilya Kovalchuk’s franchise goal-scoring record. Scheifele also ranks second in all-time franchise scoring, with 645 career points. While the Jets have tended to spread around their ice time, Scheifele continues to operate confidently as the team’s top-line center.

The Winnipeg Jets aren’t necessarily up against the cap but keeping around a Vezina-caliber starter and 40-goal-scoring top-line center beyond this season will undoubtedly come at a rich price. For a team with a lot of questions looming, decisions around Hellebuyck and Scheifele will be telling.

Extension Candidate: Mark Scheifele

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The Winnipeg Jets are approaching a potentially franchise-altering season. Two of the organization’s key players, former Vezina Trophy winner Connor Hellebuyck and team number-one center Mark Scheifele are each on expiring contracts that stand to walk them straight to the unrestricted free agent market next summer.

The Jets are intent on remaining competitive with key players such as Kyle Connor, Josh Morrissey, Nikolaj Ehlers, and recent acquisition Gabriel Vilardi still on their roster. So it stands to reason that the team would be interested in retaining Scheifele, the player with the most goals in Jets history since they arrived from Atlanta.

But seeing as his name has come up in trade rumors this summer, it’s also a very real possibility that he ends up on a different team next season. A poor campaign by Winnipeg could finally catalyze the type of re-tool that seems off the table at this current moment entering 2023-24.

The likeliest scenario that would result in Winnipeg engaging in serious discussions about a long-term contract with Scheifele next season would be if the team sprints out of the gate at the start of the regular season and looks like a legitimate Stanley Cup contender.

If that ends up happening, the Jets finding a way to retain their number-one center would likely become an organizational top priority. Should the Jets make a determined effort to extend Scheifele — assuming they haven’t already — what might that contract look like?

2022-23

For quite a while now, the question of Scheifele’s true on-ice value has been a hotly debated one. He’s a divisive player, and that’s not even a reference to the vicious hit he laid on an unsuspecting Jake Evans during the 2021 playoffs — one that got him suspended for the team’s final three games as well as Winnipeg’s season-opener the following campaign — but rather a reference to the way in which Scheifele approaches the game.

Scheifele places a premium on offensive creation and offensive production, something that is certainly admirable, but often comes at the detriment of his all-around value. His fixation on always maximizing his and his linemates’ offensive production has made him something of a lightning rod for criticism as the Jets franchise has declined since their 2018 run to the Western Conference Final.

Scheifele’s approach to the game has at times attracted harsh criticism from those who would like to see him take a more committed approach to the defensive side of the game. A lot is typically asked of elite centers in the NHL, and nothing Scheifele has shown in recent seasons has suggested he is able to capably manage the sort of defensive commitment many coaches want to see out of top pivots. Jets coach Rick Bowness even appeared to show some frustration at Scheifele during last season, per The Athletic’s Murat Ates, suggesting that many fans’ frustration with Scheifele’s offensive focus could be shared, to a certain extent, by figures within the Jets organization.

But on the flip side of those negatives is the undeniable reality that Scheifele is among the most offensively gifted centers in the NHL. He scored a career-high 42 goals last season and has frequently been an at-or-above point-per-game scorer. He’s a two-time NHL All-Star and has even been productive in the playoffs, with 32 points in 37 career games. He undoubtedly has the numbers of a true first-line center, and first-line centers are extremely rare. But then the question becomes, he has number-one center numbers, but does he play like one?

Statistics

2022-23: 81 GP, 42 G, 26 A, 68 pts, -16 rating, 43 PIMs, 206 shots, 20:29 ATOI, 58.5% CF
Career: 723 GP, 272 G, 373 A, 645 pts, +46 rating, 303 PIMs, 1,620 shots, 19:59 ATOI, 55.7% CF

The Market

Centers who put up the kind of numbers Scheifele has throughout his career don’t come cheap. While Scheifele is undoubtedly a cut below the dynamic, league-defining centers such as Nathan MacKinnon that are at the top of the financial leaderboard, he nonetheless has the profile of a player who merits a franchise-defining contract.

It’s very rare for a point-per-game top-line center to hit the open market, and while it’s certainly up for debate if Scheifele truly fits that mold, he’d certainly end up the best center on the open market assuming both Auston Matthews and Steven Stamkos re-sign with their current clubs.

That would likely aid Scheifele significantly should he be seeking the highest AAV mark possible on his next deal, as it’s probable that teams desperate for a true scoring center (such as the Boston Bruins, who lost David Krejci and Patrice Bergeron to retirement) would be ready to open their wallets for Scheifele.

The Jets have the sort of cap space to afford a hefty raise for Scheifele, in large part thanks to the nearly $7MM set to come off their books at the expiration of Brenden Dillon and Dylan DeMelo’s contracts. The team shifting to a cheaper goaltender should Hellebuyck depart could also make fitting a pricey Scheifele extension all that much easier for Jets GM Kevin Cheveldayoff.

Comparable Contracts

Dylan Larkin (Detroit Red Wings) – Detroit invested an $8.7MM AAV in Larkin’s next contract, and although Scheifele is three years older he has a decent argument to have earned more than that number. Scheifele has a more extensive track record of offensive production than Larkin, though Larkin’s defensive game certainly surpasses Scheifele’s. It’s also worth noting that Larkin was signing with his hometown team and the club he captains, and although Scheifele has spent his entire pro career with the Jets it’s unlikely he has ties as deep, long-lasting ties as Larkin had, the sort of ties that would make a player particularly motivated to re-sign.

Bo Horvat (New York Islanders) Horvat has posted numbers far below Scheifele’s career standards for much of his time in the NHL, and he earned an $8.5MM AAV from the New York Islanders. Horvat’s commitment to defense far surpasses Scheifele’s and he is two years younger. But NHL teams first and foremost pay for production when it comes to scoring forwards, and as a result, it’s difficult to imagine Scheifele earning less than Horvat on his next deal, at least on an average annual value basis.

Projected Contract

In our preview of the 2024 free agent class, we projected a $9.4MM AAV on Scheifele’s next contract, on a seven-year term. That’s certainly a fair number looking at Scheifele’s offensive production, but one wonders if teams would give pause to committing that kind of money to a player with Scheifele’s defensive warts now that he’s past the age of 30.

That being said, the type of bidding war that would be likely to take place should Scheifele hit the open market would almost undoubtedly see Scheifele offered a contract at that AAV, if not higher. Quite simply, centers of his caliber are among the rarest commodities in the NHL, and almost never hit unrestricted free agency.

If the Jets want to motivate Scheifele to forgo a likely highly lucrative trip to the free agent market, they’ll likely need to pony up, potentially giving him a maximum-term deal above the $10MM mark.

Similarly, for a team to prevail in what is likely to be a hotly contested battle for his signature in any potential Scheifele unrestricted free agency, they’ll likely need to cross that $10MM threshold as well.

It’s far from a given we reach that point since Scheifele still needs to have a productive 2023-24 season, but if he has another near or above-point-per-game season he could very well end up the star of next summer’s free agent frenzy. Though if he does, there will undoubtedly be quite a bit of debate over whether he truly merits the contract he’ll receive.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Snapshots: Toews, Norway, Andrae

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A few days ago, speaking on NHL Tonight, David Pagnotta of The Fourth Period spoke in great length about some of the options that the Boston Bruins had been looking at to start their offseason. He mentioned that the Bruins had kicked the tires in July on potentially landing Mark Scheifele from the Winnipeg Jets, and had also mildly looked into the price tag of both Elias Lindholm and Mikael Backlund from the Calgary Flames.

Pagnotta also noted the potential fit between the Bruins and NHL veteran Jonathan Toews. Even though Toews had primarily been working on getting healthy and recovering from the effects of Long Covid, the Bruins were on Toews’ radar dating back to last year as a potential destination. Only a day later from that interview, we would learn that Toews has decided he will forego the entirety of the 2023-24 NHL season, and look to make a comeback for the 2024-25 campaign.

If Boston starts the season with Charlie Coyle and Pavel Zacha as their top two centermen heading into the season, being unable to replace the void left by the retirements of Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci, it will not be from lack of trying. Without much in the way of draft capital for the next two seasons, and the lack of cap flexibility, the Bruins will largely have to look to trade from their NHL roster if they have any hope of acquiring a high-end talent to man the middle of the ice.

Other snapshots:

  • In an article from Matthis Karlsson of Sport Bladet, the Norwegian National Team has been shut down for the time being. After losing $9MM in 2022, all but the country’s J20 National Team will cease operations moving forward. Not only will the team be shut down, but Karlsson also mentions that five members of the team’s union have been let go in an effort to cut costs. It is more bad news for the National club, as the team has finished in 13th place in the last three consecutive World Championships, and was unable to qualify for the 2022 Olympic Games in Beijing, China.
  • Emil Andrae, a second-round pick of the Philadelphia Flyers in the 2020 NHL Draft will reportedly be coming to North America for the 2023-24 season (X Link). Playing for HV71 of the SHL last season, Andrae put up an impressive six goals and 20 assists in 51 games as a 21-year-old. Rising through the ranks of the Flyers’ prospect pool, it is unlikely that Andrae will make the team out of training camp, and will likely spend the majority of next season playing for the team’s AHL affiliate, the Lehigh Valley Phantoms.

East Notes: Trade Targets, Amirov Jersey Retirement, Nylander

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Toronto Maple Leafs forward William Nylander and Winnipeg Jets players Connor Hellebuyck and Mark Scheifele land atop the latest Trade Targets list from The Athletic, written by Shayna Goldman. All pending unrestricted free agents, Nylander finds himself first on the list after recording a career-high 40 goals and 87 points in 82 games last season. As Goldman notes, it’s highly unlikely a potential Nylander extension becomes top of mind for Toronto GM Brad Treliving until an extension for teammate Auston Matthews is signed, sealed and delivered.

Regarding Hellebuyck, his trade value has decreased in recent months, with teams shying away from doling out large sums of cash to bonafide starting netminders, instead looking for value options in the crease to guide them deep in the playoffs. Goldman posits, however, that it’s a method that can work only for a select few – namely Colorado and Vegas, as it has the past two seasons, given the strengths of their defense corps. While teams should be rightfully wary about handing out too much term to Hellebuyck on an extension, given he’s already 31 years old, acquiring a clear-cut elite starter is still necessary for some teams to reach championship contention. Other names on the list included Anaheim Ducks netminder John Gibson, Carolina Hurricanes defenseman Brett Pesce, Calgary Flames players Noah Hanifin and Elias Lindholm, and Arizona Coyotes forwards Nick Schmaltz and Jason Zucker.

  • In a well-deserved and meaningful gesture, KHL club Salavat Yulaev Ufa will be retiring Rodion Amirov’s number 27 after the young forward passed away from a years-long battle with a brain tumor on Tuesday, according to The Hockey News’ David Alter. The 21-year-old Maple Leafs prospect had suited up in 70 games for his hometown team before he had to stop his playing career in 2021 to undergo cancer treatment. Reports indicate Salavat’s captain, 625-game KHL veteran Grigori Panin, initiated the decision.
  • Alexander Nylander is a candidate to slide into the Pittsburgh Penguins’ top six to begin the season, says The Athletic’s Rob Rossi. The 2016 eighth-overall pick could get a look at either Sidney Crosby’s or Evgeni Malkin’s left wing with Jake Guentzel sidelined for the first few games of 2023-24 after undergoing ankle surgery earlier this month. Now on his third NHL organization, the 25-year-old Nylander will look to capture a full-time spot in the NHL for the first time since he played 65 games with the Chicago Blackhawks in 2019-20.

Jets Notes: Hellebuyck, Scheifele, Stanley, Chisholm

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Things have been quiet on the Connor Hellebuyck trade rumors front over the past few weeks. No teams have made serious offers for the pending UFA’s services since he reportedly informed interested teams he desired a $9.5MM AAV on a long-term extension. Without a trade in place, the Jets haven’t shut the door completely on trying to extend their franchise netminder. In a mailbag today, Sportsnet’s Ken Wiebe says he believes Winnipeg has made a short-term, two-to-three-year extension offer to Hellebuyck, although it’s not something he suspects Hellebuyck’s camp would ever agree to.

Hellebuyck reportedly told Winnipeg he was unwilling to sign an extension in June, giving the Jets plenty of time to work out a deal. The team has had some interesting roster turnover this summer, though, getting a nice return package for Pierre-Luc Dubois that arguably upgraded their team in the short term. With a Western Conference that’s routinely anyone’s game aside from the few top dogs, it’s not out of the question the Jets return to the postseason in 2024 – maybe even with a better-equipped squad. As each day passes, it seems increasingly likely Hellebuyck will at least start next season in a Jets uniform. His primary goal remains winning a championship, so if Winnipeg can get off to a strong start with new faces in the fold, expect them to make a bigger push to keep Hellebuyck around after all.

Some other notes on the Jets from Wiebe:

  • Speculatively, Wiebe threw some cold water on the idea of trading first-line center Mark Scheifele to the Boston Bruins, citing Boston’s tight salary cap picture and the uncertainty surrounding Hellebuyck as reasons why. With Scheifele’s less exorbitant demands on an extension, he’s likely the easier of the two to trade if they do reach that point. Also a pending UFA, Scheifele currently carries a cap hit of $6.125MM and is coming off a career-high 42 goals in 2022-23. Considering all the moving parts involved in a potential trade with the Bruins, it makes sense the Jets would rather wait and see what a potential Hellebuyck return brings them before discussing a Scheifele deal.
  • Wiebe also believes the Jets may indeed sign RFA defenseman Logan Stanley before potentially honoring his trade request. As he notes, it’ll be a tough fit for Stanley to get consistent NHL time with Winnipeg next season after Dylan Samberg surpassed him on the depth chart last year. The 2016 first-round pick isn’t in line for a large raise, either, meaning it’s likely inconsequential if he signs a contract for 2023-24 with the Jets or if he signs with a new team after they trade for his signing rights. Stanley was eligible for salary arbitration this summer but opted not to file. He played in just 19 games for Winnipeg last season, recording three points and a 45.9% Corsi for at even strength while averaging just 13:43 per game.
  • Similarly, Wiebe thinks the Jets haven’t agreed to minor-league defender Declan Chisholm on a new deal yet, thanks to the latter’s desire for a one-way contract. Chisholm has just a pair of NHL games to his name but excelled in the minors with the AHL’s Manitoba Moose last season, posting 43 points in 59 games and earning an AHL All-Star nod in the process. The 23-year-old defenseman may very well get claimed on waivers if the Jets sign him and attempt to send him back to Manitoba after a strong camp, though, so Chisholm is likely to earn an NHL salary next season regardless, although a two-way deal would remove that guarantee.

Capitals Still Trying To Add Top-Six Forward

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The Washington Capitals were one of the quieter teams this offseason after their worst season in over 15 years. They did add Max Pacioretty in free agency, but he’s projected to miss the first couple of months of 2023-24 as he recovers from his second consecutive Achilles tendon injury. Aside from that, their forward group, which boasted just two 20-goal scorers last season, essentially remains unchanged. While injuries took a significant toll on the team’s performance, a number of important scorers, such as Evgeny Kuznetsov, Anthony Mantha and T.J. Oshie, had down seasons.

With captain Alex Ovechkin still in the fold and chasing the NHL’s all-time goal-scoring record, general manager Brian MacLellan has made it clear on numerous occasions that he doesn’t plan to let the team slip out of competitiveness while Ovechkin is still active. Speaking with reporters virtually today, MacLellan said he’s still making calls in pursuit of a top-six forward before training camps open next month. Those calls are likely being made in conjunction with trying to find a home for Kuznetsov, who the Capitals confirmed last month has requested a trade.

Adding Pacioretty on a one-year, $4MM bonus-laden deal should add a fair amount of goals if he stays healthy. After all, Pacioretty was on pace for 40 goals with the Vegas Golden Knights in 2021-22, but various injuries limited him to 39 games played that season. Given his quite extensive recent struggles to stay in the lineup, though, it’s unfair to pin much, if any, responsibility on Pacioretty to help elevate the Capitals back to the postseason. With the aging Nicklas Bäckström’s health in question, too, it quickly becomes clear why MacLellan feels a sense of urgency to add an impact player to the team’s top-six group. Given Bäckström likely shouldn’t be relied upon for second-line minutes at this stage in his career, a Kuznetsov replacement down the middle should be top of mind for MacLellan.

That being said, top-six centers don’t grow on trees. It’ll be quite a challenge for MacLellan to mine one via trade this late in the offseason after most of the dust has settled.

One has to wonder if MacLellan has been in conversation with the Calgary Flames regarding Elias Lindholm if he opts not to sign an extension with his current team. A Kuznetsov/Lindholm swap (including other assets heading to Calgary) with extensions attached to both sides could line up well with both teams’ missions to stay competitive throughout some roster turmoil. The 28-year-old Lindholm has 146 points in 162 games over his last two seasons with the Flames and would be a remarkable defensive upgrade, as well as in the faceoff circle, over Kuznetsov. The latter’s 44% career win percentage in the dot pales in comparison to Lindholm’s 53% win rate.

There’s also the matter of Winnipeg Jets center Mark Scheifele, who finishes out the trio of top-six centers you’ll hear thrown around on the trade market at this stage. The same circumstances would likely need to apply here as a Lindholm trade with extensions in hand for Kuznetsov and Scheifele with their new teams. While Scheifele wouldn’t aid much of Washington’s defensive woes down the middle with Kuznetsov, he would add a much more significant secondary goal-scoring punch to Ovechkin. He’s coming off a career-best 42-goal season and has scored 30 goals on two other occasions. He has a $6.125MM cap hit this season before his contract expires in 2024, but could block a trade to Washington if he so chooses if he includes the Capitals on his ten-team no-trade list.

Any trade speculation involving a top-six forward for the rest of the offseason will include Kuznetsov, Lindholm and Scheifele until proven otherwise. For Washington, needing to make a move like this to stay competitive is some unfortunate timing. They have pieces with intriguing long-term potential, like Connor McMichael, but their solid drafting in recent seasons just hasn’t caught up to them yet. If they want an impact player now to help bridge the gap between Ovechkin and the next Washington core, as well as keep them in the playoff race during the short term, it’ll need to come via trade.

Previewing The Top 2024 Unrestricted Free Agents

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This year’s free agent class was underwhelming. There’s no disrespect intended here to players like Alex Killorn, Dmitry Orlov and Vladimir Tarasenko. However, we’ve grown accustomed to at least one true star being available on the market every year – at least a top-ten player at their position. But a flurry of extensions took some potential game-breakers, such as Boston Bruins sniper David Pastrnak off the market, limiting the amount of star power available.

With the salary cap finally expected to jump significantly by about $4MM next offseason, some NHL general managers will undoubtedly look to spend that extra cash on a shiny new toy on the UFA market. As 2023 is mainly in the rearview mirror, let’s take a look at some of the best players slated to hit the open market next summer, whether or not they may extend, and offer some way-too-early contract projections in the process:

F Auston Matthews (Toronto Maple Leafs) – The unquestionable crown jewel of the 2024 free agent class might also be one of the least likely to hit the market. Matthews is more than just a superstar – he’s a season removed from back-to-back Rocket Richard Trophies, he’s led the league in even-strength goals in four out of his seven NHL seasons, and he’s coming off a “down season” in which he still managed 40 goals despite a career-low 12.2 shooting percentage. Toronto is still plugging away at an extension with Matthews, a process that was surely elongated by a change at the GM position earlier this offseason. While multiple reports suggested it likely won’t be a long-term deal to keep Matthews in Toronto, seeing his name available for anyone to pursue next July would be shocking.

Extension Likelihood: Very Likely
Projected Contract: Five years, $62MM ($12.4MM AAV)

F William Nylander (Toronto Maple Leafs) – Another star in Canada’s largest city is also headed for the open market next season. Nylander is coming off a strong season with a career-high 40 goals and 87 points, but multiple reports indicate contract talks are currently at an impasse between the two sides. The Swedish winger reportedly wants an eight-figure cap hit on his next deal, one he’s increasingly unlikely to receive after sub-$10MM extensions for players like the Carolina Hurricanes’ Sebastian Aho. He will be in his prime at 28 years old next summer, though, and he currently holds the undisputed title of the best pure winger slated to hit the market. Given the slated cap increase, Nylander may be able to garner the money he desires elsewhere if Toronto isn’t willing to fork over another eight-figure deal.

Extension Likelihood: Somewhat Unlikely
Projected Contract: Seven years, $70MM ($10MM AAV)

F Steven Stamkos (Tampa Bay Lightning) – Including Stamkos on this list seems like more of a formality than anything else. The captain of back-to-back Stanley Cup championship teams in Tampa and likely to go down as the greatest player in franchise history when he retires, it’s nearly impossible to imagine him wearing another jersey. Barring an unforeseen breakdown in communication, Stamkos will be re-upping with the Bolts on what could potentially be the final contract of his NHL career as he enters his mid-30s. After yet another point-per-game season, Stamkos will undoubtedly be sticking around in Tampa as long as they’ll have him, likely at a slight discount to help them replenish their depth reserves.

Extension Likelihood: Very Likely
Projected Contract: Four years, $31.5MM ($7.875MM AAV)

F Jake Guentzel (Pittsburgh Penguins) – The Penguins have exhibited a strong tendency toward keeping the band together in recent seasons, but it’s a trend that may change under the front-office leadership of Kyle Dubas. Still, it’s hard to imagine the Penguins won’t field a competitive offer to keep Guentzel in the fold. He’s been one of the most successful and consistent linemates to Sidney Crosby in the entire illustrious career of the future Hall-of-Famer, he’s a two-time 40-goal scorer, and he’s an incredibly clutch playoff performer. While contract extension talks haven’t begun between the two parties yet, reporting indicates the Penguins’ core shares the public’s view of Guentzel and would like to keep him around.

Extension Likelihood: Likely
Projected Contract: Eight years, $75MM ($9.375MM AAV)

F Mark Scheifele (Winnipeg Jets) – The first of two Jets on this list hasn’t been in trade rumors quite as much as his netminding counterpart, but there’s still a very good chance Scheifele is sporting a different jersey by the 2024 trade deadline. Speculation has immediately run rampant about Scheifele as a stop-gap fix down the middle for the Boston Bruins, who are without their number-one center after captain Patrice Bergeron announced his retirement last week. There are plenty of question marks about how highly Scheifele is actually valued around the league, given his significant defensive lapses, but he’s consistently produced the offense you’d want out of a number-one center. Despite scoring a career-high 42 goals last season, 2022-23 was actually Scheifele’s first campaign falling short of a point per game since 2015-16, when he was just 22 years old.

Extension Likelihood: Unlikely
Projected Contract: Seven years, $66MM ($9.4MM AAV)

D Devon Toews (Colorado Avalanche) – Toews may be the most unheralded defenseman in the league thanks to his partner, Cale Makar. On almost any other team, Toews would be a legitimate number-one defender with very few holes in his game. Little has been made of his impending free agency, but he’ll be due a major raise on his current bargain-bin $4.1MM cap hit. Combined with the potential loss of captain Gabriel Landeskog’s LTIR relief should he return to play in 2024-25, it could be incredibly difficult for Colorado to retain him even with the cap going up. Not only does Toews consistently rank among having some of the best defensive impacts in the league, but he’s also coming off back-to-back 50-point campaigns and has finished top-15 in Norris voting during each of his three seasons in Colorado.

Extension Likelihood: 50/50
Projected Contract: Seven years, $61MM ($8.7MM AAV)

D Brandon Montour (Florida Panthers) – A pair of prominent Panthers defenders are up for UFA status next season in Montour and Gustav Forsling, but Montour’s the one we’ll cover more in-depth here after he led the Panthers’ defense in playoff scoring with eight goals and 13 points in 21 games despite playing through a shoulder injury which will cost him the beginning of the 2023-24 campaign. His stock has never been higher after exploding for 73 points in 80 regular season games, along with a career-high 107 penalty minutes. While he’s still a rather one-dimensional player and likely to be somewhat of a liability defensively, he’s finally shown legitimate top-pair ability at 29 years old. Committing any term to Montour as a UFA may be a case of buyer beware, however, as his track record is far from consistent.

Extension Likelihood: Somewhat Unlikely
Projected Contract: Four years, $26MM ($6.5MM AAV)

G Connor Hellebuyck (Winnipeg Jets) – It seemed very unlikely a few months ago that Hellebuyck would be on this list today. While there’s no chance he’ll be signing an extension with the Jets, a trade followed by an extension with a new team seemed rather likely this offseason. However, some outlandish financial demands from Hellebuyck’s camp dried up trade interest, and there hasn’t been a lot of movement on that front lately. While small, the possibility that Hellebuyck lands on the open market next season seems to be increasing without a trade or extension any closer to fruition.

Extension Likelihood: Very Unlikely
Projected Contract: Seven years, $61.25MM ($8.75MM AAV)

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Bruins Looking To “Bolster” Center Position

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Often, periods of sustained success lead to a quick and rough-and-tumble downfall in today’s NHL. That chain of events appears to be set in motion with the Boston Bruins, who are now facing some significant forward depth issues after a tight salary cap crunch and the retirement of captain Patrice Bergeron earlier this week. With Bergeron and longtime teammate David Krejci not expected to return as their two top pivots down the middle, team president Cam Neely told reporters, including Joe Haggerty, today that the team is doing “whatever we can to bolster that position.”

If Neely isn’t bluffing, expect that to lead to pretty immediate trade speculation regarding the Bruins and some of the top centers potentially available on the trade market. They still have some runway this offseason to make a move before the 2023-24 campaign starts, although a move could always come closer to next year’s trade deadline if the team feels they can be competitive enough to at least stay in the playoff race until that point.

Haggerty mentioned two candidates who, by public consensus, should make the most sense – Elias Lindholm of the Calgary Flames and Mark Scheifele of the Winnipeg Jets. Both have loads of experience shouldering first-line minutes and are pending UFAs next summer, with the status of contract extensions up in the air. If you’re a Bruins fan, don’t hold your breath, though – any trade will be incredibly tough to pull off with limited financial maneuverability and a lack of top-flight assets in the cupboard.

That being said, when a team official says all avenues are being exhausted, it’s fair to speculate about a deal. The Bruins do have a couple of pieces capable of top-six minutes in Pavel Zacha and Charlie Coyle, but more is needed for a team no longer stacked with depth scoring on the wings and still having playoff aspirations. Lindholm immediately jumps out as a better fit with Boston than Scheifele, if for no other reason than his lower cap hit. Locked in at just $4.85MM next year, a move centered around someone like defenseman Matt Grzelcyk could be palatable for the B’s if Calgary obliges – the Flames may be looking for someone to replace pending UFA defenseman Noah Hanifin if they trade him as well.

Not only that, he’s a much better direct stylistic replacement for Bergeron than Scheifele. No one will come close to Bergeron’s two-way dominance (and calling him dominating may be an understatement), but Lindholm has garnered significant Selke consideration in the past two seasons and has posted better point production than Bergeron in the past few seasons.

Scheifele may have a slightly higher offensive ceiling with a longer history of point-per-game seasons, but he’d be harder to fit in at a $6.125MM cap hit. Boston doesn’t exactly have the assets to spare to convince a team (or third party) to retain salary in a deal. While incredibly skilled, Scheifele also consistently ranks near the bottom of the league in defensive impacts. He’d be a fine stopgap and a significant upgrade on their current options, but if the Bruins have a choice between the two candidates mentioned, Scheifele will likely be their second pick.

Other than those two, the list of centers available on the trade market that would be significant upgrades over their current options is quite slim, at least among pending 2024 UFAs. There’s also another Flame who could be available on the market in Mikael Backlund, but he’s not quite viewed as a bonafide number-one center despite his elite defensive capabilities.

Pierre-Luc Dubois Has Requested A Trade

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Pierre LeBrun of TSN Insider Trading is reporting that the agent for Winnipeg Jets forward Pierre-Luc Dubois’ has informed the club that he isn’t interested in signing any type of contract extension with the team, not even a one year deal that would take him to unrestricted free agency. The timing of the news is a little bit surprising as Gary Bettman doesn’t like these types of stories to break during the Stanley Cup final, however the news itself is one of the worst kept secrets in the NHL.

Dubois reportedly told the Jets last summer that he had no intention of signing a long-term deal to stay in Winnipeg and it appears that the 24-year-old is staying true to his word. Dubois had 27 goals and 36 assists in 73 games this season after signing a one year $6MM contract last summer. He helped lead the Jets to the postseason this year, but it appears that he would prefer his time in Manitoba come to a close sooner rather than later.

Dubois is just one year away from being free to sign with anyone. However, he is under Winnipeg’s control for next season as a restricted free agent and may have handcuffed the Jets if they were to shop him in the trade market. Winnipeg could move on and try to facilitate a trade to meet Dubois request, or they could take him to arbitration and accept a one-year deal and lose him as a free agent next summer. While neither option is great for the Jets, it could be a launching pad for a lot of movement this summer. The Jets have quite a few very talented players that are approaching unrestricted free agency and may either opt to take one more run at a cup or begin a painful rebuild.

Superstar netminder Connor Hellebuyck, former captain Blake Wheeler, and center Mark Scheifele are all unrestricted free agents next summer and with a potential exodus on the horizon general manager Kevin Cheveldayoff may decide that the more palatable option is to jump start the rebuild now and bring in a boatload of young controllable talent.

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