P.K. Subban

More than two weeks into free agency, one player that hasn’t received a lot of coverage is veteran defenseman P.K. Subban.  The 33-year-old’s eight-year, $72MM contract expired earlier this month, allowing him to hit the open market for the first time but he hasn’t really been linked to teams at this point.

However, his agent Don Meehan of Newport, told Stu Cowan of the Montreal Gazette that while the rumor mill has been quiet for his client, it hasn’t been for a lack of interest and that he, like quite a few other free agents, are waiting for the financial picture for certain teams to get cleared up:

P.K. just came back from vacation and I talked to him today about the free-agency marketplace and I’ve indicated to him that we’ve had expressions of interest. I’ve told him that there are teams moving money — assessing what kind of cap space they have, analyzing their depth scenarios to determine just exactly what they can do. Some of these issues are in play as we speak, so I can’t get a definitive response from some teams in terms of moving ahead, but I have had expressions of interest for him to date. But the teams that have expressed interest aren’t in a position to contract now because they’ve got other things in play.

Subban has seen his production dip considerably over the past three seasons compared to his time with Montreal and Nashville and is coming off a 22-point campaign with the Devils in 77 games.  Notably, his average playing time dipped under 20 minutes a night for the first time in his career as he averaged 18:18 which put him fifth among New Jersey’s blueliners.  That was a drop of more than four minutes a game compared to 2020-21, hardly ideal for someone heading into free agency.  A year ago, Subban had a case that he could still be a top-four defender but it will be harder for his camp to make that argument now.

Meehan also indicated that Subban is particularly focused on finding the right fit:

Without sounding too aggressive, I think he’s earned the privilege to be somewhat selective in terms of where he would play so that it works for the team and it works for him. In other words, he doesn’t just want to play anywhere. He has that measure of independence.

While Subban isn’t at the level he was back when he was in his prime as a three-time Norris finalist, he could still help teams in more of a limited role while it also helps that he and Anton Stralman basically represent all that’s left of right-shot defenders that are available on the open market.  But with it proving more difficult than before for teams to free up salary cap space, Subban’s search for the right fit could drag on a little longer yet.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Despite relatively low fanfare, one of hockey’s biggest names is set to be become an unrestricted free agent this summer. New Jersey Devils defenseman P.K. Subban will become a UFA for the first time in his career, having just finished the final year of an eight-year, $72MM contract that carried a $9MM AAV. Subban signed that contract with the Montreal Canadiens prior to the start of the 2014-15 season, but would only play two of the eight years with Montreal before being dealt to the Nashville Predators. The star defenseman would spend three seasons in Nashville, making a trip to the Stanley Cup Finals in 2017, but was again traded to New Jersey in 2019.

A former Norris Trophy winner, Subban is no longer the player he was in Montreal and Nashville, trailing off in production the past few seasons. From 2012-13 (his Norris season) through 2017-18, Subban averaged 58 points per 82 games played, including a career-high of 60 in 2014-15. However, since the start of the 2018-19 season, Subban’s production has been cut, quite literally, in half, averaging just 29 points per 82 games played. Though Subban was never regarded as elite defensively, he’s also seen his struggles in his own end too in recent years. Most notably, during the same 2012-13 through 2017-18 stretch, the defenseman compiled a plus-43 rating in 422 games, which dropped to a near-opposite minus-40 in a far fewer 252 games.

Having just turned 33-years-old, and with the previous four years of regression, Subban is very unlikely to come anywhere close to his previous contract, but it’s not to say he won’t have interest this offseason or a shortage of places to play next season. The veteran has appeared to establish himself as a well-liked leader in an incredibly young Devils locker room and still possesses the big shot and physical ability that made him one of the elite defenders of the 2010’s. Subban could find himself as an important piece on a competitive team which can limit his exposure and utilize him in favorable matchups; perhaps a team that already has solid defensive depth, but is missing the offensive upside from the blueline that Subban does provide. One comparison to this end could be how the Edmonton Oilers have used Tyson Barrie, who posted two strong seasons after a rough 2019-20 with the Toronto Maple Leafs.

As mentioned, Subban is surely not going to find himself with a $9MM AAV this offseason, but he will have opportunities. What his next contract looks like is very much a mystery, however. One possibility could be to follow in the footsteps of defenseman Kevin Shattenkirk. Though Shattenkirk doesn’t have as impressive of a track record as Subban, he did find himself as a UFA after two down seasons with the New York Rangers, having been bought out after two years of a four-year, $26.6MM contract. The path Shattenkirk chose was to sign a one-year, $1.75MM contract with the Tampa Bay Lightning for the 2019-20 season, where he would rebound, admittedly not to his past standard, but enough to earn a three-year, $11.7MM contract with the Anaheim Ducks the very next offseason.

Returning to Barrie, he utilized a very similar strategy, signing a one-year, $3.75MM deal for the 2020-21 season with Edmonton, rebounding and earning a three-year, $13.5MM extension with the Oilers. Perhaps Subban could sign a low-value deal in a well-suited role to rebuild his value in hopes of finding a favorable multi-year deal next offseason.

A multi-year deal this offseason at a (reasonably) higher salary isn’t necessarily off the table for Subban, however his options to combine this offer with an ability to compete for a Stanley Cup could be more limited. Considering the current flat-cap and Subban’s age and recent regression, competitive teams will have to budget carefully and taking on a player like Subban who could be considered a bit of a “project,” may not necessarily be a move a team like that would be keen on making.

If Subban does sign a multi-year contract this offseason, ones like Shattenkirk’s with Anaheim, Barrie’s extension with Edmonton, or even Jack Johnson’s five-year, $16.25MM contract that he signed with the Pittsburgh Penguins prior to the 2018-19 season, could be strong comparisons. It is worth noting though, that both Shattenkirk and Barrie played their one-year “rebuilding seasons” at age 29, and Johnson was 31 when he signed his long-term contract in Pittsburgh. Meanwhile, Subban turned 33 this week.

Regardless of how Subban pursues his first trip to unrestricted free agency, he should still have a market that offers him several options considering the skills and value he brings on and off the ice. With his previous status as an elite defenseman, his recent regression, and still being regarded as one of the game’s most marketable stars no matter his on-ice performance, his free agency is sure to be intriguing.