The Penguins have faced numerous challenges over the past few years – some regrettable trades and dwindling attendance. They’re on the verge of missing the playoffs for the third consecutive season, following a remarkable streak of 16 straight postseason appearances from 2007 to 2022. This year will mark only the fourth time in captain Sidney Crosby’s illustrious 20-year career that he missed the playoffs. While many media pundits speculate about his desire to join a contender, Crosby has consistently expressed his commitment to finishing his career with the Penguins and being part of their future success. The organization seems eager to accommodate him, which raises an important question: Would the Penguins trade one of Crosby’s favorite wingers for a second time in the last 18 months?
Trading Rickard Rakell has been a consideration for the Penguins; reports indicate they sought a substantial return at the NHL Trade Deadline but ultimately decided to keep the 31-year-old winger for the remainder of the season. However, not trading him this year doesn’t preclude a potential deal during the summer. Rakell has three years left on his contract with a reasonable $5MM cap hit, and his value may never be higher than it is now. The Penguins could capitalize on this opportunity and accelerate their retooling efforts, but at what cost? Crosby would lose a preferred winger again, and the Penguins lack players in their system who could effectively replace Rakell.
General manager Kyle Dubas has indicated that the franchise does not want to bottom out. They fear the emergence of a losing culture affecting their players, a concern supported by the 2010 Edmonton Oilers’ repeated struggle to escape the bottom of the NHL standings despite multiple top-five picks.
For their part, the Penguins have said they are comfortable keeping Rakell. While that won’t please the fans hoping for a tank next season, it could ultimately help the Penguins’ youth movement, who will get to study the game under the tutelage of Crosby and Rakell.
If the Pens opt to go a different direction, Rakell could be traded for a haul and possibly even lead to an impact prospect, which is missing from the Penguins’ retool and is on Dubas’ radar (as per Josh Yohe of The Athletic). The Penguins GM has done well building the prospect pipeline, but Pittsburgh doesn’t have anyone in their system who screams franchise cornerstone. The other factor when considering a Rakell move is that he wasn’t good last season, tallying just 15 goals and 22 assists in 70 games. Should he fall back to that production level, his $5MM AAV looks less appealing, which would hurt his trade value and the Penguins’ potential return.
The other Crosby winger that the Penguins could consider moving is Bryan Rust. The 32-year-old has hovered around the point-per-game mark since 2019 and has three more years on his deal at a very economical $5.13MM per season. The Pontiac, Michigan native is a two-time Stanley Cup champion with the Penguins and remains one of the last holdovers from the 2016 and 2017 teams that won back-to-back championships. Rust remains a heart and soul player for Pittsburgh, and like Rakell, his value might never be higher. Rust would likely be a more challenging trade for Pens fans to swallow, given that he was drafted and developed by the team and is viewed by many as a man who should be wearing a letter in Pittsburgh.
On the flip side, Rust would also bring a strong return to Pittsburgh and could help move the Penguins’ retool along. It’s not unreasonable to think they would get a first-round pick and a prospect or two for Rust, which makes holding onto him even more complicated, even though the Penguins are keeping their superstar captain happy in doing so.
The Penguins owe a lot to Crosby; some might say he saved the franchise in 2005. Some might also say Crosby is loyal to a fault, and given the evidence, it’s easy to see why. The 37-year-old has never taken market value on a contract, playing under an $8.7MM cap hit since the 2008-09 season, and has almost always kept himself out of team business except for the Evgeni Malkin and Kris Letang contract negotiations in the summer of 2022. Crosby also watched his preferred winger, Jake Guentzel, get traded away last March without a complaint. He’s perhaps the most loyal athlete in professional sports history.
But, as mentioned earlier, the talk leading into the NHL Trade Deadline was once again about trading one of Crosby’s preferred wingers, Rakell. Rust has also been mentioned in trade rumors, and given that his entire no-move clause ends this summer, he could be a name that is moved. But what kind of a message would it send to the superstar center who has given his all to the Penguins?
Many hockey pundits have speculated on whether or not Crosby will finish his career in Pittsburgh. Still, Crosby has done everything he can to dispel those rumors, including signing a two-year extension last September. It is easy to question Crosby’s decision, given the direction of the Penguins during the previous three seasons and the roster’s current state. However, looking at what Dubas has done in the last 12 months, it’s not impossible to imagine the team returning to relevance before the end of Crosby’s aforementioned two-year extension that is set to start next season. With all of that being said, Pittsburgh is still in a retool that they refuse to call a rebuild, and Crosby still very much wants to win, which has made it difficult to embrace a rebuild fully and has put Dubas in a position where he can’t fully commit to a youth movement. Penguins’ ownership and management appear committed to the retooling strategy, and Crosby is also on board based on how he spoke to Elliotte Friedman on the 32 Thoughts podcast.
Regardless of who Dubas moves out, this offseason will be a franchise-defining one. They could push in and make aggressive moves over the next 12 months to try and get Crosby and the Penguins back into the playoff picture in what could be teammate Evgeni Malkin’s last season in the NHL.
The team could also continue gradually adding to their pipeline and draft picks. Either way, the Penguins are at a strange fork in the road as they try to navigate the past, the present, and the future of an organization that has had megastars and championships on the regular since the beginning of the 1990s.
Dubas must decide whether to retool around Sidney Crosby, which likely means keeping Rakell and Rust for one last run or leaning into a deeper rebuild that could see one or both of them sent away via trade. Whatever the case, it’s safe to assume spring and summer will bring a lot of trade winds for the Penguins, as they also have star defenseman Erik Karlsson, who will likely be traded.
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