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How Much Should Jack Eichel Get?

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Many publications discuss Connor McDavid and Jack Eichel in the same sentence. That’s because the two have been linked together for years as they went No. 1 and No. 2 overall in the 2015 draft. They both were considered franchise changing centers and neither has disappointed. However four days into the offseason, the Edmonton Oilers locked up their franchise center, agreeing to an eight-year, $100MM contract, giving him an AAV of $12.5MM. Is Eichel next and how much will he command?

While both players have been talked about together and both have performed admirally, McDavid’s exorbitant contact makes sense. The two-year veteran has scored 46 goals and 102 assists in that span and he actually missed almost half of his rookie season. His 100-point season is a rarity in hockey, but it was a season that captured him the Hart Memorial Trophy as the MVP of the league, the Art Ross Trophy for having the most points in a season, the Ted Lindsay Award, voted on by players and given to the most outstanding player during the regular season. He made his first all-star appearance and was named to the NHL First All-Star Team all in this past year. And at age 20, there is plenty of optimism that he could take his game to new levels.

After awarding that contract to McDavid, Eichel’s turn to sign on the dotted line should be approaching. The question is what is he going to ask for. The 20-year-old, who was the second-overall pick in 2015, might be a nudge ahead of McDavid on goals scored with 48, but Eichel has also played 15 more games than McDavid. Eichel has put up great numbers, scoring 24 goals in both his first two seasons, but his playmaking skills haven’t been as impressive as McDavid. He finished with 56 points in his rookie season and 57 points in his sophomore campaign, although he played 20 games less this past year. He could be holding out for a bigger contract, assuming he will have a breakout year that might garner a similar contract to McDavids.

However, it’s unlikely Eichel will ever garner a contract in the same realm as McDavid. So far, he has proven to be a solid 25-goal scorer and while those numbers could improve quite a bit, he’s hardly accomplished anything that compares to McDavid. His numbers would suggest something in the range of $7MM to $10MM if he holds out to the last moment, but hopefully the young center will not hold out for McDavid money. Buffalo continues to negotiate, but it far more likely that an extension is still a year away.

What do you think he deserves?

Sabres To Wait On Sam Reinhart Extension

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While new GM Jason Botterill and the Sabres front office are reportedly working diligently on an extension for star center Jack Eichel in hopes of having a deal done this summer, they aren’t placing the same emphasis on a new contract for a fellow young forward. With one year remaining on his entry-level contract, it seems that the Sabres are content to let Sam Reinhart reach restricted free agency next off-season before working out a new deal.

Reinhart, the #2 overall pick in 2014, has not yet performed to the same level as Eichel, the #2 overall pick in 2015, or even the Winnipeg Jets’ Patrik Laine, the #2 overall pick in 2016. While Reinhart has certainly been an important part of the Buffalo offense the past two years, it seems that the jury is still out on his long-term value. Reinhart has played in 79 games in each of the past two seasons, racking up 42 and 47 points respectively. While that is a nice contribution, a near-number one pick is expected, at the very least, to register 20 goals and 20 assists in a season, which Reinhart has yet to do. While Reinhart’s two-way game is coming along nicely, he has also been abysmal at the face-off dot. Reinhart simply has a ways to go to reach his potential and is thus not a priority to re-sign with a year remaining.

None of this is to say that Reinhart is not a valued member of the current and future Sabres, only that he has not reached the level of some of his teammates. A new deal for RFA goalie Robin Lehner and an extension for Eichel, two players that simply play larger roles in Buffalo, are taking precedence. However, when next summer roles around, Reinhart will get his fair share of attention. Still just 21 years old, Reinhart is a power play weapon and an expert sniper. Botterill acknowledged that he’s “excited with Sam”, but added “I don’t think something from a contract standpoint will be happening this summer”. Reinhart has another year to show that he’s still growing as a player and is worth perhaps more than what he’s accomplished so far, and that opportunity may just work out in his favor.

Snapshots: Cull, Eichel, Emelin, Allvin

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The Vancouver Canucks have hired Trent Cull as the next head coach of the Utica Comets. The AHL team lost their bench boss when Travis Green was promoted to coach the NHL squad, and now will poach another minor league team’s assistant. Cull had been working as an assistant coach with the Syracuse Crunch, but also has experience at the OHL level.

The former minor-league fighter never did make it to the NHL during his playing career, but will take the next step towards coaching there one day with this latest assignment. It will be his first head coaching job in the AHL, and he’s tasked with returning the Comets to the playoffs after they missed last season.

  • Pierre LeBrun of TSN is reporting that Jack Eichel and the Buffalo Sabres have opened discussions over a possible extension. The news today that Connor McDavid may get eight years at $13.25MM per season must have perked up Eichel’s ears, as though he’ll certainly not get anywhere near that he should get a whopping extension of his own before long. The two sides are allowed to officially sign an extension after July 1st, when Eichel will have less than one year remaining on his current entry-level deal.
  • LeBrun also reports that the Montreal Canadiens have looked into a possible reunion with Alexei Emelin, selected last week in the expansion draft. Like many of the other veteran defenders, Emelin is expected to be flipped from the Vegas Golden Knights in the coming days, and Montreal could possibly re-acquire him. LeBrun adds that the Ottawa Senators have also shown interest in the big defenseman, perhaps as a replacement to their own expansion loss, Marc Methot.
  • Ansar Khan of MLive reports that the Detroit Red Wings were hoping to get Brendan Smith back in town under a respectable three-year, $10.5MM contract but that he may have other offers. Khan points to Smith’s current team the New York Rangers and a potential $4MM AAV. Smith ranked #12 on our free agent list, in which we predicted a four-year, $15MM ($3.75MM AAV) contract. Smith will certainly expect multiple offers from around the league on July 1st, as his versatility makes him an interesting option for many teams.
  • After losing Randy Sexton to the Buffalo Sabres, the Pittsburgh Penguins have promoted Patrik Allvin to Director of Amateur Scouting. Sexton was hired as an Assistant General Manager by Jason Botterill and the Sabres, meaning Allvin who has served as the Penguins head European scout for several years, will move up in the organization.

Offseason Keys: Buffalo Sabres

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While the expansion draft is set to headline a busy NHL offseason, there are still several other storylines for each team in the months ahead. Here is a closer look at what lies ahead for the Buffalo Sabres.

After another disappointing season, the Sabres cleaned house, letting both head coach Dan Bylsma and GM Tim Murray go.  Earlier this week, they filled the latter vacancy with the hiring of Jason Botterill away from the Penguins.  While hiring a coach will be a main focus (Botterill plans to have a new bench boss in place by the draft in June), here are a few other key decisions that are worth watching for out of Buffalo this offseason.

Time To Commit To Lehner?

Two years ago, the Sabres dealt a first round pick to the Senators to get what they hoped was their core goalie for the present and future in Robin Lehner.  The results have been a bit of a mixed bag.  Over the last two years, he has played in just 80 games, posting a 2.63 GAA and a .921 SV%.  Both of those are decent but not towards the top of the league either.

Dec 29, 2016; Buffalo, NY, USA; Buffalo Sabres goalie Robin Lehner (40) against the Boston Bruins at KeyBank Center. Mandatory Credit: Timothy T. Ludwig-USA TODAY SportsLehner is coming off of his bridge deal and is only a couple of years away from unrestricted free agency.  The decision needs to be made as to whether or not he’s still the goalie of the future.

If Botterill believes that is the case, he’ll likely look to lock him up long-term on a deal that could double his current $2.25MM cap hit.  (His qualifying offer comes in at $3.15MM so any new deal, long-term or short, is likely to start at that amount at a minimum.)  If not, they could become part of what’s likely to be a very busy offseason in terms of goaltenders changing places.  However, most of the goalies that will be available in this shuffle are shorter-term fits and thus, only a temporary solution.

Rebuilding The Defense

Buffalo spent over $24.75MM on their blueline in 2016-17 between their regulars and injury recalls and didn’t get a whole lot of bang for their buck.  While Rasmus Ristolainen continues to be one of the more impressive young defenders in the league, other veterans such as Josh Gorges, Dmitry Kulikov, Cody Franson, and Zach Bogosian all underachieved.

Fortunately for Botterill and the Sabres, the team will have an opportunity to reshape their back end this summer.  Both Kulikov and Franson are unrestricted free agents and carried a combined cap hit of just over $7.65MM this season which is more than enough money to go after the big fish in free agency if they so desire.  If not, it’s still enough cap space to put towards a couple of veteran free agents (or trade additions) who should be a better fit for the team moving forward.  Either way, it seems likely that some changes will be coming on the blueline.

Extension For Eichel?

Just prior to the departures of Bylsma and Murray, reports surfaced that Jack Eichel wouldn’t be willing to sign a contract extension if Bylsma remained behind the bench.  Both Eichel and his agent denied the report but the firings were made just one day later.

Eichel, the second overall pick back in 2015, was Buffalo’s leading scorer this past season despite missing 21 games due to injuries.  He’s well positioned to be their franchise player for years to come and has five years of team control remaining.

While he’s signed through June of 2018, Botterill will likely kick off extension talks with Eichel and agent Peter Fish in the hopes of getting him signed as soon as they can (no deal can be struck until July 1st).  Not only would that get their star player locked up long-term, it would also provide them with some cost certainty and send a strong message to the rest of the team and fan base.  While there’s no real rush to get something done (since they have more than a year to sign another deal), it wouldn’t be surprising to see this wrapped up pretty quickly once the calendar turns to July.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Sabres Notes: Botterill, Head Coach Options

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With Jason Botterill officially leaving the Pittsburgh Penguins organization to assume the GM duties in Buffalo, the rookie manager faces the tall task of turning a Sabres team that has failed to qualify for the postseason since 2010-11 into a legitimate Stanley Cup threat. His job is a little easier given the presence of  franchise center Jack Eichel and a talented blue liner in Rasmus Ristolainen, who has the potential to be a top-pair defender for many years. However, the challenge that confronts Botterill is still daunting. Along those lines, Sportsnet’s Luke Fox identifies six high priority items he believes the new GM must tackle in his quest to build a winning organization.

First, and perhaps most obvious, the Sabres will have to hire a coach and given the reportedly tumultuous relationship former head coach Dan Bylsma had with many of his charges, getting the right guy behind the bench is critical to Buffalo’s future. Fox lists several names that have been floated in the media, with current Pittsburgh assistants Rich Tocchet and Jacques Martin standing out due to their prior working relationship with Botterill. Both men have prior head coaching experience and given the recent success each has enjoyed as members of the Penguins staff, either would be able to bring a winning mentality to Buffalo.

Additionally, Fox points out that Botterill will have to fix a defense corps that was a glaring weakness last season and is slated to see two regulars, Cody Franson and Dmitry Kulikov, depart as free agents. There will be options available this summer in free agency, Karl Alzner, Kevin Shattenkirk and Trevor Daley are among those specifically mentioned by the scribe, but likely won’t come cheap. Given the team’s salary cap situation – less than $23MM in projected space – and with Eichel and Sam Reinhart each needing new deals ahead of 2018-19, Botterill will have to be judicious with his cap dollars in the offseason.

All told, it’s an interesting take on Botterill’s situation with the Sabres, and well worth a full read.

In other Sabres news:

  • Ryan Kennedy of The Hockey News also has a suggestion for Botterill’s head coaching search, identifying Washington assistant coach Todd Reirden as “the perfect fit,” for the Sabres. Kennedy references that prior to joining the Capitals, Reirden served on Dan Bylsma’s coaching staff in Pittsburgh where Botterill would have had a chance to get to know the former NHL defenseman. Additionally, the first-time GM is on record as saying he wants Buffalo to play an up-tempo brand of hockey that focuses on puck possession. As Kennedy points out, Reirden’s former employer, Washington, has been one of the league’s top teams in terms of possession in recent seasons. Reirden also guided one of the NHL’s top defense corps, with the Capitals allowing the fewest goals in the league in 2016-17. Botterill also said he is looking for a teacher and as Kennedy points out, Reirden has earned rave reviews in Washington with his help developing Nate Schmidt and Dmitry Orlov into quality defenseman. It’s also worth noting that with Buffalo believed to be in the market for blue liners, hiring Reirden might give them a leg up on the competition should they pursue pending Washington UFA defenders Karl Alzner and/or Kevin Shattenkirk.
  • Lastly, Bill Hoppe of Buffalo Hockey Beat writes that Botterill intends to prioritize icing a competitive team in Rochester, believing that success in the AHL is a great tool in developing young talent. Botterill was a key figure for three seasons with Rochester and played with future Sabres Ryan Miller, Thomas Vanek, Derek Roy and Paul Gaustad with the Amerks. Those players would help guide the Sabres to back-to-back appearances in the Conference Final after the 2006-07 and 2007-08 campaigns. That was the last time Buffalo won even a playoff round, and they’ve made the postseason just twice in the 10 years since. Botterill also saw a strong feeder team payoff while in Pittsburgh, with young players like Conor Sheary, Bryan Rust and Jake Guentzel, just to name a few, coming up from Wilkes-Barre/Scranton and making an immediate impact with the big club. Sheary and Rust won a Stanley Cup last season with Pittsburgh and the Penguins have a chance to repeat that feat as they begin their Eastern Conference final match against Ottawa later today.

NHL Announces 2018 Winter Classic Match-Up

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The NHL has announced the two teams competing in the 10th Annual Winter Classic on New Year’s Day 2018. The league will return to the roots of the event, pitting the original host of the first Winter Classic in 2008, the Buffalo Sabres, against their in-state rival, the New York Rangers. It is the first Winter Classic to be held in New York City, and the Rangers will host the event at Citi Field in Queens, home of the New York Mets.

Ironically, the area of New York where the Mets play has been the rumored location of a possible new arena for the New York Islanders, the one New York team left out of the proceedings. Nonetheless, this will be a great event on January 1st, as hockey fans throughout the state and the Big Apple will flock to see the rivalry match-up between two exciting teams. The Sabres are a team in flux, but Jack Eichel and his teammates will have something to prove. Meanwhile, the Rangers want to defend their status as the best team in New York and will bring the King, Henrik Lundqvist, and a deep, talented line up to try to get the job done. Interestingly, due to an odd agreement regarding the tax status of Madison Square Garden, the Rangers will likely be the visitors and the Sabres the home team in the contest. The Rangers were the road team in each of their two outdoor games at Yankee Stadium in 2014.

Unfortunately, the timing of the announcement is not great, as the Rangers are in the middle of a do-or-die Game Six match-up with the Ottawa Senators and, at the time of this writing, are down 2-0. At least they will have something to look forward to to help get over the (potentially) disappointing loss.

NHL Draft Lottery Notes: Odds, History, Viewing

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For the fourteen teams that missed the playoffs and the expansion Vegas Golden Knights, they have one thing in common: they’re hoping Bill Daly is holding a card with their logo on it, announcing that they have the first overall pick.

At 7pm central, NBC, CBC, and Sportsnet will show the NHL Draft Lottery as the Colorado Avalanche lead all teams in terms of percentage for receiving the #1 pick. Below are the odds:

Colorado Avalanche — 18.0%
Vancouver Canucks — 12.1%
Vegas Golden Knights — 10.3%
Arizona Coyotes — 10.3%
New Jersey Devils — 8.5%
Buffalo Sabres — 7.6%
Detroit Red Wings — 6.7%
Dallas Stars — 5.8%
Florida Panthers — 5.4%
Los Angeles Kings — 4.5%
Carolina Hurricanes — 3.2%
Winnipeg Jets — 2.7%
Philadelphia Flyers — 2.2%
Tampa Bay Lightning 1.8%
New York Islanders — 0.9%

TSN has a lengthy writeup on the history of the lottery and how the current format differs from other versions. The biggest change for the draft is that instead of the worst team being guaranteed, at worst, a second overall pick, they are only promised a top four pick. This was placed to discourage teams from “tanking” to draft top-end talent, which hasn’t completely negated the idea of tanking as Toronto won the right to draft Auston Matthews last season with the #1 pick while securing the worst record in the NHL.

What’s new to 2017?  From Sportsnet:

For just the second time in NHL draft lottery history, the top three picks are in play. This rule was implemented by the league in 2016 to dull incentive for any team to finish lower in the standings (i.e., tanking).

The odds of winning the second and third draws increases on a proportional basis depending on which team claimed the previous draw.

The addition of a 15th lottery team, Vegas, into the mix also affects the winning percentages.

This draft is different too, since the top two picks for the first time in three seasons are not considered the “generational talent” that Connor McDavid, Jack Eichel, Matthews or Patrik Laine were when looking back at the one and two overall picks respectively.

This isn’t to besmirch the top two candidates, Nolan Patrick or Nico Hischier. After all, “can’t miss” prospects have fooled scouts and analysts before while prospects that scouts didn’t think were as good sometimes exceeded expectations.

But before the talent can be chosen, there needs to be an order. Tonight will determine that.

Specifics: 

Time: 7pm CST
Where to watch: CBC, Sportsnet, NBC

Chris Drury Rejects Sabres Interview

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The Buffalo Sabres are apparently still struggling to woo a capable general manager, according to Elliotte Friedman. The New York Rangers Assistant GM – and former Sabre co-captain – Chris Drury, rejected the franchise’s attempts to interview him for the position. Drury had been in charge of player development prior to promotion to AGM, and continuing acting as a liaison for prospects and younger players. His efforts have been widely praised league-wide, as the Rangers acquired and developed wonderful college players over the years, such as Jimmy Vesey and Kevin Hayes. Bill Guerin has already been interviewed by the Sabres, and other candidates will certainly be willing to sit down with Buffalo ownership, considering that only 31 head management positions exist in the league. But this rejection cannot be perceived as a positive sign for an organization that has struggled to find strong, capable leadership. After the Jack Eichel  end-of-season presser, rumors surfaced that the phenom did not want to play next season for  head coach Dan Bylsma (an allegation which was adamantly denied by his agent). The rumor was lent some credibility when both the coaching and general manager were quickly dismissed thereafter.

Owner Terry Pegula will now be hunting for his 5th different coach since taking ownership of the franchise in 2011 – coincidentally, the same year that Buffalo last made the playoffs. Buffalo has struggled to attract high end talent, whether it be players or staff. The organization had been rejected by Mike Babcock in favor of Toronto when they offered the legendary coach an opportunity. Bylsma was in essence a consolation prize, and his poor overall record in Bufffalo did nothing to alleviate the memory of the faulty hiring process in the minds of fans. With regards to the GM search, we’ve heard very little chatter around the recently fired Kings’ GM Dean Lombardi in connection to Buffalo, which might be cause for concern. Especially in light of Pegula’s re-assurances that any hires would bring a wealth of experience, it seems as though Pegula is content looking to recently retired NHLers to guide the ship. Although Guerin and Drury have both undoubtedly helped their franchises in different respects (both the Penguins and Rangers are consistent playoff contenders), it seems possible that again Pegula is having to settle for second and third choices.

Whichever GM takes over for the Sabres, they will have their work cut out for them. Although the forward corps is stocked with Eichel, Ryan O’Reilly, Kyle Okposo, Sam Reinhart, and Evander Kane, they still have a need for depth that plays up to capability. Goaltending was no longer at fault this season, and coaches have been swapped out like air filters. If success doesn’t come soon, scrutiny will start to fall more heavily upon ownership. Fans can only endure a rebuild for so long before they expect results.

Snapshots: Masterton Finalists, Sabres, Worlds

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The NHL has announced its finalists for the Bill Masterton Memorial Trophy. The Masterton is awarded to the player “who best exemplifies the qualities of perseverance, sportsmanship, and dedication to ice hockey”. Each team nominates their own candidate for consideration, and the top three vote-getters are announced before the awards. The final three are Ottawa’s Craig Anderson, Carolina’s Derek Ryan, and Anaheim’s Andrew Cogliano.

Anderson was forced to take an extended hiatus while his wife was battling cancer. The netminder returned to action after a long stretch away from the rink, and immediately posted a shutout against the New York Islanders in February as he continued his dominance of the crease. His .926 save percentage this season was second among goalies who had played more than 30 games, and was a huge factor in his team making the playoffs. Ryan is a 30 year-old rookie, and spent his entire career toiling in the minors and overseas before finally getting his shot at an NHL roster spot. Cogliano has been unbelievably resilient and tough in his impressive ironman streak, playing over 800 straight games since entering the league. If he has another few seasons of perfect attendance, he could break ironman records thought hopelessly lost to ancient hockey history. The Masteron winner will be announced on June 21st at the NHL Awards show in Las Vegas, which will also feature the announcement of the Golden Knights’ roster selections.

  • The Athletic’s Scott Powers gave insight into Blackhawks players possibly travelling to compete in the World Championships. Ville Pokka will not compete for Finland, apparently due to a contract issue. Artem Anisimov will not play for Russia, which is a big blow for that squad, as his size and unique skillset would have been useful. He is still nursing a lower-body injury which impacted his play in the team’s first-round exit. Patrick Kane is unlikely to play for the United States, but has made no official comment on the matter.
  • The Buffalo News reflects on the season-long failure of the Sabres to provide their goalies support. Looking forward to a new GM and head coach hire, fans are hopeful for higher standards and less streakiness. This offseason, it seems as though providing goal support for Jack Eichel will be paramount, as the team struggled mightily to find steady production. Comments from players are looking forward to revamping their play style next season at even strength, by not allowing such a disparity in shot opportunities. Offensive help in terms of UFAs will be difficult to find, as there is sparse selection. T.J. Oshie, Radim Vrbata, Kris Versteeg, and Patrick Eaves are all names that should intrigue the Buffalo front-office – though it is uncertain which will still remain unsigned come July 1st.

Latest On Buffalo Sabres Front Office Situation

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The owner of the Buffalo Sabres Terry Pegula held a press conference this morning to explain the firings of both Dan Bylsma an Tim Murray, and was very forthcoming about the situation. The whole thing lasted about 15 minutes, but Pegula was peppered with questions about how the decision was made, who will be considered for the vacant jobs, and even the perceived “tanking” of the 2014-2015 season. The full audio of the presser can be found here.

The main theme of what Pegula had to say was that the team needed better discipline and structure throughout the organization, and that he didn’t feel as though Murray had built that well enough. He regretted not being part of the GM search in the first place—which was conducted by Pat Lafontaine when he served as President of Hockey Operations, a position that lasted only three months—and that he would be much more involved this time around. Pegula will be pursuing someone of experience, though he matter-of-factly shot down the notion that Dean Lombardi had already been interviewed, saying it was a “complete fabrication”.

With those same words, he denied the Jack Eichel “coach-killer” rumors, saying that he stands with Eichel’s agent Peter Fish in defense of the star player. Pegula did however admit that he spoke to players before making the decision to move on from Bylsma and Murray, and perhaps the perceived discontent this year is part of the “discipline” problem with the Sabres.

When asked about the tanked season that resulted in Eichel—but was done for Connor McDavid—Pegula stressed that it was a rebuild, not a tank, and that his team has never wanted to lose. While it was clear that winning the draft lottery and acquiring McDavid (or Eichel) was a goal, it would be hard to say that any group of professional athletes would intend to lose, and Buffalo was no different. Whatever it is deemed, tank or rebuild, it did result in one of the best young players Buffalo has seen in a long time.

While Pegula assured the media that he hadn’t spoken to anyone about the vacancies yet, he did explain that Jeff Crisp the Sabres head scout would be handling all of the amateur scouting leading up to the draft. The team also let go both pro and amateur scouting directors yesterday, a bold move with both expansion and entry drafts following so soon. Whichever GM takes the job will have to rely heavily on Crisp for the upcoming draft, as Buffalo again has a good chance at a top-5 pick.

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