The Danger Of Signing Goalies To Lucrative Contracts
The New York Rangers and Vancouver Canucks are two of the NHL’s worst teams this season and are both on the verge of massive roster changes. While both teams face unique challenges, one parallel is that they’ve made a mess of their goaltending finances with pricey extensions that were miscalculations.
The Rangers and Canucks are far from alone in this predicament. High-priced extensions have also burned several other teams at the bottom of the standings, leaving them with goaltenders who had been performing well but whose play fell off a cliff after signing their new deals.
That isn’t necessarily the case for Shesterkin, however, it is the case for Linus Ullmark of the Ottawa Senators, Juuse Saros of the Nashville Predators, and Jacob Markstrom of the New Jersey Devils, who are all making big money on recent contract extensions, with no guarantees their play will turn around. This has left three teams with win-now rosters featuring goaltenders who are vastly overpaid.
It’s become a trend over the past five-plus years that teams signing goaltenders to expensive deals must be seriously concerned about their performance throughout the term of the agreement.
There is concern about every player’s performance after they sign a lucrative long-term deal. However, goaltenders have become a unique cause for concern lately, and it’s hard to say why.
In the late 1990s and throughout the 2000s, many veteran goaltenders on the wrong side of 30 would sign expensive long-term deals without so much as a second thought from their new teams. In July 2002, for example, goalie Curtis Joseph signed a three-year, $24MM contract with the Detroit Red Wings, even though it wasn’t the best offer on the table.
Joseph had a three-year $26MM offer from the Toronto Maple Leafs but opted to move to Detroit. Toronto then pivoted and signed Ed Belfour to a two-year, $13.5MM deal.
By today’s standards, those contracts aren’t eye-popping, and the term is relatively short. But Belfour and Joseph were 37 and 35, respectively, and there was a chance their play would drop off significantly during the brief time they were signed.
Nowadays, it’s hard to imagine a team giving $8MM a season to a 35-year-old goaltender, and Joseph’s deal was inked 23 and a half years ago. The Senators gave Ullmark four years and $8.25MM annually just last year, but he had just turned 32 and was two seasons removed from a Vezina Trophy as the league’s top goaltender.
It was a pricey gamble for Ottawa and hasn’t looked like good value this season, but Ullmark has been dealing with personal issues, so it’s hard to project how the deal will work out long-term.
Circling back to the Rangers and Canucks, they are a tale of two teams whose expensive goaltending has led to team-wide issues, but for wildly different reasons. In Vancouver, Thatcher Demko was signed to a lucrative three-year deal at the start of free agency, worth $8.5MM annually.
It was a gamble by Vancouver, as they hoped the former Vezina Trophy finalist could bounce back from a poor showing last season. Had Demko had a good year, he would have been a candidate to get $9MM or more on a new contract, but Vancouver thought it was wise to jump the queue. It has not turned out well.
If Demko had played well, Vancouver likely would have paid him an AAV slightly higher than the $8.5MM they gave him, but would’ve been on the hook for more term, which would’ve been riskier. Instead, Vancouver made a different bet and is now on the hook for more term than Demko would’ve received in free agency. But hindsight is 20/20, and for the Canucks, they are stuck with the Demko deal, one they’d love to have back.
In New York, it was a different calculation. Rangers’ general manager Chris Drury believed he had a Stanley Cup contender on his hands, which meant doing everything he could to retain his Vezina Trophy-winning goaltender, Igor Shesterkin. Drury moved out his captain, Jacob Trouba, to open up space to sign Shesterkin to a record-breaking eight-year, $92MM contract.
While it was the right on-ice move given Trouba’s cap hit relative to his play, the Rangers have never been the same since the trade. New York fell off a cliff last season and has remained at the bottom of the league this year, despite Shesterkin being good.
But that is the issue: Shesterkin has only been good. In the years leading up to his extension, Shesterkin was elite.
His play in those seasons masked many of the Rangers’ problems and led Drury and New York management to think the team was much better than it actually was. Shesterkin’s goaltending was a mask, hiding the fact that Drury had built a fatally flawed roster that relied too much on out-of-this-world netminding, which was clearly unsustainable.
While the Rangers, Canucks, Devils and Predators aren’t the only teams with pricey goaltending, they are the most apparent examples of paying a premium for goaltending. But even middle-of-the-pack teams can run into issues where their extensions turn into disasters.
There are good examples in Washington: a few years ago, with Darcy Kuemper, who had just won a Stanley Cup, and Philipp Grubauer, who had been solid for years before signing as a free agent with Seattle and becoming unplayable in the NHL. Matt Murray in Ottawa was the same story, but none is more egregious and obvious than Tristan Jarry in Pittsburgh, who was recently dealt.
Pittsburgh is a relevant example because of Stuart Skinner, who has been a revelation with the Penguins but is a UFA at the end of the season. Pittsburgh already has its goalie of the future in tow in Sergey Murashov, and the Penguins would be wise to ride Skinner into the playoffs and then let him walk in the offseason if his salary demands exceed $5MM annually, which they surely will. It should be interesting to see the Skinner story unfold, but there is plenty of evidence that the Penguins would be wise to avoid giving term to a netminder who is unpredictable.
NHL Teams Continue To Avoid Roster Re-Starts
Several NHL teams have been major disappointments this season, particularly the New York Rangers and Vancouver Canucks. While the Rangers have made it clear they intend to retool, the Canucks have refrained from labelling their plans, possibly due to ongoing roster assessments or other internal considerations. Even teams that have entered clear rebuilds have become apprehensive about fully starting over (e.g., the Calgary Flames), for various reasons. PHR had a piece last year that addressed why teams are choosing a retool over a rebuild, but this piece will focus on why teams have shied away from ever starting over.
The reluctance to start over makes sense from the team’s perspective, even if it hinders the team’s long-term prospects of becoming competitive again. The Rangers are a perfect example, having invested a pile of past development years into players such as Igor Shesterkin and Alexis Lafreniere. This is common among NHL teams, who constantly fall into the sunk-cost fallacy of continuing to throw money and time at a player, even though he will never be what they were hoping for or effective enough to justify the costs they’ve paid.
Beyond past costs, teams are also trapped by future expenses from contract extensions given to players who are not performing up to their AAV. This is something the Rangers are arguably dealing with in the cases of Shesterkin and Lafreniere, another bitter pill for management to swallow, as they are now in a position where they feel as though they are throwing both past and future years away on a player they piled so many resources into.
Those extensions were signed by Rangers general manager Chris Drury, and his fingerprints are all over this team. Drury has invested everything into his current club, from draft picks to term to cap space to his public messaging. It’s part of the reason he has recently talked of pivoting to a retool. Walking away completely from this core would signal a massive failure on his part. Even if the pieces in place probably aren’t the ones you’d want to retool around, Drury will likely keep a lot of them, because he staked his reputation on acquiring them.
GMs who build a team and then have to blow it up are essentially admitting they were wrong in their roster construction. Few NHL GMs want to do that, and most front offices would rather be a consistent disappointment than openly admit they are wrong.
And therein lies a big problem in the NHL. Executives aren’t necessarily rewarded for championships; they are rewarded for not collapsing. Making the playoffs is safe; finishing just outside the playoffs shows stability, but tearing down a roster and rebuilding it is a considerable risk, one that can cost you your job. A full-scale rebuild requires several ugly seasons. It means fans with brown paper bags on their heads attending games, and it means an impatient owner circling the offices, wondering when the team will turn the corner. Rebuilding is brutal and ugly, and it requires patience. Retooling is more manageable, quicker, and often leads to immediate, albeit tepid, results.
Retools can also sell hope, and teams can see it in a retool. Owners prefer hope to being told they have to tear down their team, and hope sells more tickets than telling fans you are going to start over. That matters more to owners: a full building over a full draft-pick ledger. A middle-of-the-pack team with designs on limping into the playoffs is easier to market than a disciplined rebuild with zero guarantees.
So, NHL teams opt for the theatre of optimism over meaningful structural change, and it’s tough to fault them given the incentives at play. One of the most famous examples of this is the Toronto Maple Leafs of the late 2000s, who were managed by Brian Burke. The management group had assembled a promising prospect pool but grew impatient in September 2009 and made the trade with Boston to acquire Phil Kessel. The rest, of course, is history: Tyler Seguin was drafted in 2010 with the Maple Leafs’ first-round pick, and defenseman Dougie Hamilton was drafted a year later with Toronto’s 2011 first-round pick. Had Toronto simply been patient, there is no telling where that iteration of the Maple Leafs would have ended up.
Front offices dread wasting years, and in the early stages of a rebuild, there will be wasted years. It’s also why teams rush rebuilds and mess them up. That is effectively what Drury did. He became impatient and made bold moves to bolster his lineup, which ultimately blew up his prospect system and, eventually, his NHL roster. The Ottawa Senators are guilty of the same thing, taking wild swings early in their rebuild on Alex DeBrincat and Jakob Chychrun. Teams trade their future away and call it supporting the core. They extend players to justify their original bet on a player (see last week’s piece on this). They shift their own goals from winning the Stanley Cup one day to simply not having to start over.
Again, it’s hard to fault GMs for doing this. The NHL’s structure used to encourage full-scale rebuilds, but now the rules discourage them. The draft lottery has made it harder to build through top picks; the salary cap floor requires acquiring veteran players; and some high draft picks take longer to develop. All of that has made the retool, or stated differently, the half-rebuild, safer. Even if the retool leads nowhere, which it often does.
The Pittsburgh Penguins are a prime example of this. In the 2022-23 season, it became clear the Penguins needed to get younger, but general manager Ron Hextall doubled down on his roster, trading for veterans such as Nick Bonino, Mikael Granlund, and others. He also sent Brock McGinn, Kasperi Kapanen, and Teddy Blueger out the door. It was a clear case of doing something now to change the furniture, hoping it would improve. It failed miserably. Hextall had stood still for most of his tenure in Pittsburgh, and while his flurry of moves that year showed urgency, he accomplished nothing and was fired at the end of the season.
The complex reality in the NHL is that teams can’t rebuild under current management, not in any meaningful way, because it would expose all of management’s mistakes. Bad drafting, poor development, bad signings, cultural rot in the dressing room, the list goes on. Starting over requires a top-down reset, from the president of hockey ops and general manager on down to the players, and most teams can’t stomach that kind of carnage or don’t have the humility to admit things aren’t working. This is why teams don’t rebuild until it’s five years too late, and the only choice they have is to start over and wait five to seven years for results.
The Maple Leafs are currently at that point. They can retool around Auston Matthews, William Nylander, and Morgan Rielly, or they could begin the painful teardown and build a whole new culture in Toronto. Given the incentives at play, it’s hard to believe they would choose the latter over the former, even if it might be the better choice for the franchise long term.
Rifai Sent Back To Marlies
- The Maple Leafs’ AHL affiliate announced on Friday (Twitter link) that defenseman Marshall Rifai was returned to the Marlies. The move comes as no surprise with the Olympic break in full effect. Rifai recently returned from a preseason injury and has four assists in a dozen games in the minors. Recalled late last month, Rifai got into one game with the Maple Leafs but saw just 9:40 of playing time. The demotion will allow him to keep playing and also land Toronto some extra cap flexibility heading into next month’s trade deadline.
Latest On Bobby McMann
Despite a recent winning streak, the Toronto Maple Leafs remain on the outside of the playoff picture in the Eastern Conference. Were they in the West, their record would be good enough to be in a playoff spot at this moment, but the quality of the conference they find themselves in makes it difficult to imagine a clear path for them to return to the playoffs.
As a result of their current situation, Toronto is likely considering selling off some of its assets in order to best position itself to compete next season and beyond, and one of the key trade chips the club has to work with is winger Bobby McMann.
A pending UFA, McMann is on pace to set career highs in offensive production. He has 19 goals and 32 points in 56 games this season, which is a 28-goal, 47-point 82-game scoring pace.
McMann has attributes to his game beyond just his scoring ability that are likely to make him a player of interest to contending teams. He’s relatively big, standing 6’2″, 217 pounds, and offers the blend of size, pace, and aggression that teams typically covet.
As a result, Toronto is seeking a first-round pick from any team that trades for McMann, according to Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman.
Toronto can’t be blamed for aiming high in terms of the return it seeks for its top pending UFA, but it’s unclear at this time whether the team will ultimately be able to land a first-rounder in a deal.
On one hand, as mentioned, McMann possesses several qualities that are in demand among contending teams, and that could positively contribute to their chances of landing a first-rounder. On the other hand, McMann does not fully fit the mold of players in the past who have landed first-rounders as rentals at previous trade deadlines.
First and foremost, McMann is a winger, and typically teams have been more willing to surrender top draft choices for players at more “premium,” in-demand positions, such as centers and right-shot defensemen. The Maple Leafs themselves are likely aware of this, having surrendered first-rounders at deadlines past in exchange for centers such as Scott Laughton and Ryan O’Reilly, as well as right-shot blueliners such as Brandon Carlo.
With that said, there is still some precedent for a winger to land a first-round pick. Toronto dealt a first-round pick to the Columbus Blue Jackets to acquire veteran winger Nick Foligno in 2021, and other wingers have also returned first-rounders as rentals, such as Tyler Bertuzzi in 2023. There’s not nearly as extensive of a track record of rental wingers landing first-round picks as there is with centers, but there are examples the Maple Leafs can cite.
Ultimately, whether or not the Maple Leafs are successful in their pursuit of a first-round pick seems dependent entirely on how highly contending teams value McMann. If he’s one of the more coveted assets available on the market, it would be easy to imagine the price for his services rising high enough.
But on the other hand, numerous contending teams have already dealt away their first-round pick, as Friedman mentioned. That makes it more difficult for the right circumstances to emerge where such a pick would be dealt for McMann.
In any case, once NHL play resumes, McMann will be one of the key players to watch as Toronto looks to chart its path into an uncertain competitive future.
Photos courtesy of John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images
Teams Interested In Acquiring Oliver Ekman-Larsson
- Lastly, Pagnotta reported that if the Toronto Maple Leafs pivot toward selling ahead of the March 6th trade deadline, plenty of teams will be interested in acquiring Oliver Ekman-Larsson. It won’t be without hurdles, as the 34-year-old defenseman is signed through the 2027-28 season at a $3.5MM salary with a 16-team no-trade clause. Still, he’s having an excellent offensive year with Toronto, scoring eight goals and 34 points in 56 games, with most of that production coming at even strength.
[SOURCE LINK]
Morgan Rielly Out Through Olympic Break
- Before taking the ice against the Calgary Flames yesterday, The Athletic’s Joshua Kloke reported that the Toronto Maple Leafs won’t return defenseman Morgan Rielly to the lineup before the Olympic break. Rielly left Toronto’s recent win over the Vancouver Canucks due to an upper-body injury. Given that he’s not playing for Team Canada at the upcoming Winter Olympics, Rielly will likely return after the international event, but the Maple Leafs couldn’t specify a recovery timeline.
[SOURCE LINK]
Morgan Rielly Leaves Game With Injury
- Toronto Maple Leafs blueliner Morgan Rielly left yesterday’s victory over the Vancouver Canucks with an upper-body injury, according to a team announcement. Rielly, 31, has missed just a single game this season, meaning if his absence is in any way extended, it would have significant implications for how head coach Craig Berube is able to staff his lineup. While Rielly’s play has come under increased criticism this season as Toronto has struggled to gain ground in the Eastern Conference playoff race, he still plays a significant role on the team. He’s scored 31 points in 54 games, and is Toronto’s No. 2 defenseman in terms of average ice time per game, skating 21:33 per night in a role that includes key power play responsibilities.
Maple Leafs Activate William Nylander
The Toronto Maple Leafs are activating forward William Nylander from the injured reserve for the second time in the last three weeks. Additionally, the team has reassigned Jacob Quillan to the AHL’s Toronto Marlies in a corresponding roster move.
Nylander has been on the shelf for much of January. A groin injury has limited him to only four games this month, not including this evening. Still, he was extremely productive during those contests, scoring three goals and seven points with a +2 rating.
Throughout the entire season, Nylander leads Toronto in scoring with 17 goals and 48 points in 37 games with a +1 rating, averaging 18:33 of ice time per night. Unfortunately, that hasn’t translated to much success on the defensive side of the puck, where Nylander is averaging an 85.9% on-ice SV% in all situations. That’s second-lowest on the team, barely ahead of John Tavares.
Regardless, the Maple Leafs have clearly struggled without him in the lineup. Since Nylander exited the lineup for a second time on January 17th, Toronto has managed a 1-5-1 record, averaging 2.57 GF/G. Their current losing streak has dropped the Maple Leafs to second-last in the Eastern Conference, 10 points back of the final wild-card spot.
If Toronto has any hope of clawing back into the playoffs for the 10th consecutive year, they will need Nylander to remain in the lineup. The team has shown dramatic flaws without him.
Meanwhile, Quillan will return to AHL Toronto after one appearance with the Maple Leafs during his recall. The 23-year-old forward has scored eight goals and 27 points in 28 games for the Marlies this season.
Latest On William Nylander
Los Angeles Kings Head Coach Jim Hiller told reporters, including Zach Dooley, Manager of Editorial Content, that Alex Turcotte is out for the remainder of the road trip due to an upper-body injury.
Having returned home, the forward is ruled out until at least next Wednesday, as the Kings will take on Seattle back in Los Angeles.
Set to turn 25 next month, the former fifth overall pick has just 12 points in 49 games, but he still brings versatility to the Kings’ middle six. Turcotte has won 55.7% of draws this season, a career best, to go with a standout 57.2% Corsi For at even strength. The Illinois native may not pan out as a high offensive producer as initially expected, but he is still a valuable third line center for now, who will be missed for the rest of the week.
Elsewhere across the league:
- Washington Capitals defenseman Matt Roy is absent tonight against Detroit, noted by Sammi Silber of The Hockey News. Both he and Rasmus Sandin were listed as questionable, the latter able to return to action. Meanwhile, Roy will miss his second game of the campaign, the first coming last Tuesday, due to an apparent lower-body injury. The 30-year-old has 14 points in 53 games on the season, serving as a steady shutdown righty averaging 20:46 a night, good for third on the team. Roy could return by Saturday, as his Capitals host Carolina. Until then, Declan Chisholm remains in the lineup.
- Toronto Maple Leafs star William Nylander practiced today but still won’t play in Seattle tonight, per Sportsnet’s Luke Fox, who did say that there is a “good chance” he returns Saturday in Vancouver. The forward is dealing with a lingering groin ailment which sidelined him for six games earlier in the year. Without their leading point-getter, who has 48 in just 37 games, the Leafs have gone 1-4-1 and lacking a regulation win, in a time they desperately need points to try and reach the postseason.
Tanev And Joshua Placed On LTIR
The Maple Leafs have placed defenseman Dakota Joshua and defenseman Chris Tanev on LTIR, PuckPedia reports (Twitter link). Joshua is dealing with a lacerated kidney that has kept him out for the last month and while he has started light skating, he’s not expected to return until after the Olympic break. Tanev, meanwhile, has missed the last month with a groin issue. There’s no timeline for his return but he has already missed the required 10 games and 24 days so if he returns – something that is in the air with him reportedly uncertain about surgery – so he’s eligible to be activated at any time.