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Western Notes: Pettersson, Fabbri, Blues, Skinner

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The Vancouver Canucks top prospect Elias Pettersson received a gold medal today at the IIHF World Championships. While the 19-year-old center did not  play after fracturing his thumb last week in a game against finals opponent Switzerland, there is also no word on whether he intends to sign his entry-level deal with the Canucks either, according to Sportsnet’s Rick Dhaliwal.

Dhaliwal said he believes that Pettersson has yet to make up his mind about whether he wants to sign with Vancouver or stay another year in the SHL and play another year for Vaxjo. There is no timetable when the 2017 fifth-overall pick will make his decision.

  • In a mailbag edition, St. Louis Post-Dispatch’s Jeff Gordon writes that the best option for both the St. Louis Blues and restricted free agent Robby Fabbri is a one-year deal. Fabbri who hasn’t played a game since Feb. 4, 2017, is recovering from a torn ACL injury and had to undergo surgery a second time in training camp this year when he reinjured the same knee. Gordon writes with his value at an all-time low, as many players have trouble coming back from double surgery to the same knee, so both teams would want a one-year deal, including Fabbri who would want to prove to everyone he’s healthy if he wants to cash in on a lucrative contract.
  • Sticking with the Blues, The Athletic’s Jeremy Rutherford (subscription required) writes that the St. Louis Blues continue to shop some of worst contracts in hopes of clearing some cap space, including Patrik Berglund, Vladimir Sobotka and goaltender Jake Allen, although it’s unlikely they would be able to move any of those contracts. The 29-year-old Berglund has a $3.85MM AAV deal for another four years. Sobotka has two more years at $3.5MM AAV, while Allen has three more years at $4.35MM.
  • The Athletic’s Allan Mitchell (subscription required) evaluates the play of Edmonton Oilers goaltending prospect Stuart Skinner, who has been a solid prospect, but had a really good stretch after he was traded to the WHL’s Swift Current Broncos. The 2017 third-rounder posted a .932 postseason save percentage in 26 games, leading Swift Current to the WHL title. Is he the goalie of the future for the Oilers? Mitchell compares the prospect to other top goaltending prospects, but still admits its too early to know how good he could be. Regardless, the Oilers have something to look forward to in the future.

 

Edmonton Oilers Extend ECHL Affiliation

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The Wichita Thunder have announced that they’ve extended their affiliation with the Edmonton Oilers and Bakersfield Condors for the 2018-19 season. Wichita is part of the ECHL, where more and more teams are building a legitimate tier of player development. The Thunder are coming off their first playoff appearance since joining the ECHL in 2014.

As sports science and analytics become more ingrained in organizations around the league, teams find themselves with a need for player development past just the AHL. Franchises like Toronto and Pittsburgh have built a tiered model that allows players who may have previously been considered too raw to be introduced to professional hockey a chance to work on their weaknesses in a lower risk situation. Players like Tom Kuhnhackl, Josh Archibald and Mike Condon have all spent time with the Wheeling Nailers (Pittsburgh) while Garret Sparks, Christopher Gibson and Darcy Kuemper have all spent time with the Orlando Solar Bears (Toronto, Minnesota).

That model is spreading, and the Oilers could try to take advantage of it with their Wichita affiliation. Goaltending prospect Dylan Wells was able to get into a game after his junior season ended, and he could start his professional career there next season. That position in particular is one that can be used heavily, as there are only so many starts to go around at the AHL level.

Edmonton Oilers Sign Joel Persson, Will Assign To SHL For 2018-19

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In one of the more intriguing transactions in recent memory, the Edmonton Oilers have signed European free agent Joel Persson but announced that he will be loaned to Vaxjo of the SHL for the 2018-19 season. The contract is an entry-level deal for just one year, meaning the Oilers are essentially buying his exclusive rights for the 2019-20 season and beyond. Persson will become a restricted free agent after his one-year contract expires, at which point he can negotiate a new deal that isn’t limited by the entry-level system.

A move like this to circumvent the entry-level system isn’t normal, and could actually be grounds for looking closely at the rules in the next collective bargaining agreement. We’ve seen transaction trickery be squashed quickly in years past, and this fits into that category. From the Oilers perspective though, it is a savvy move to get a player that may not necessarily want to come to North America right away. GM Peter Chiarelli released a statement on his new prospect:

We are excited to have Joel join our organization. He has progressed rapidly in the last year and has shown a very good offensive side to his game which is compatible with some of our needs. The plan is for Joel to remain with his club team next year. We have the right of recall but want to see him develop his game thoroughly in what will be his second year in the Swedish Elite League

Persson, 24, is fresh off an SHL Championship with Vaxjo after exploding for 34 points as a rookie. That was good enough for second in the entire league among defensemen, only behind the recently signed Lawrence Pilut (Buffalo Sabres). If Persson can continue to show that he’s an elite puck-mover at the professional level in Sweden, Edmonton could sign him to a multi-year contract next summer to help the right side of their defense. That group was notoriously weak this season, and needs to add more skill and quickness to play the type of game that best suits Connor McDavid’s play.

With Persson staying in Sweden for this season though, the Oilers still have work to do on their defense. Just yesterday we released our Offseason Keys for the team, which noted that it will be difficult to land a big fish on the free agent market without moving out some salary. Either way, the team needs to do something to support their young superstar and vault themselves back into the playoff picture.

Offseason Keys: Edmonton Oilers

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While the playoffs are ongoing, many teams have already started their offseason planning.  What storylines lie ahead around the league?  Our Offseason Keys series continues with a look at the Edmonton Oilers.

Following a season that saw them make it to the second round of playoffs, expectations were high in Edmonton.  They had locked up two key contributors in centers Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl over the summer and they were viewed as a team on the rise.  Unfortunately, things didn’t go anywhere near as planned as the Oilers found themselves out of the playoff race pretty quickly which means changes should be on the horizon this summer.  Here are some keys to their offseason.

Free Up Cap Room

The Oilers have nearly $65MM tied up in 16 players already for next season, per CapFriendly with some notable restricted free agents to re-sign, including defenseman Darnell Nurse and center Ryan Strome.  Even with the expected increase in the salary cap, that doesn’t leave GM Peter Chiarelli with a lot of wiggle room.

At this point last offseason, many expected that center Ryan Nugent-Hopkins was the likely casualty.  However, he was shifted to McDavid’s wing at the end of the season (and continues there at the Worlds with Team Canada) so the odds of him moving appear to be considerably less now.  Defensemen Oscar Klefbom and Andrej Sekera are coming off of down seasons but moving one of them with their value lowered isn’t the best asset management.  Kris Russell is a bit cheaper but opinions on him around the league are widely mixed given how prolonged his free agency was two years ago so there may not be a big market for him either.

If they can’t find a suitable trade, the other option to try to clear out money is a buyout.  Winger Milan Lucic has struggled since joining the Oilers and carries a pricey $6MM cap hit.  However, since he has five years left on his contract, a buyout would mean they’d be paying him not to play for them for a decade.  That’s a lot of long-term pain for shorter-term gain as well.

Regardless of whether it’s through a trade, a buyout, or a combination of the two, Chiarelli will need to get creative to free up enough money to address some of their needs over the summer while trying to get back to the postseason.

Decision In Goal

Edmonton has a big call to make between the pipes.  No, it’s not the one that saw 6’7 netminder Mikko Koskinen join the team on a one-year, $2.5MM contract earlier this month.  While they hope he will upgrade the backup position, the decision to be pondered lies with their starter.

Two years ago, Cam Talbot was one of the better goalies in the league and narrowly missed out on being a Vezina Trophy finalist.  Finally, it seemed as if he was going to be the solution to their long-standing goalie concerns.  That swung back the other way in 2017-18.  His goals-against average (3.02) and save percentage (.903) were both below the league average while he led the league in total goals allowed (188).  Those aren’t the numbers of someone who is a long-term solution in goal.

Talbot heads into this summer with one year left on his contract (with a $4.17MM cap hit) which means he’s eligible to sign a contract extension as of July 1st.  Does the team still view him as their goalie of the future?  If so, the time may be right to see if a new deal can be agreed upon.  If not, do they instead look to deal him and then either sign a free agent or acquire one in return?  (Koskinen is a big wild card to begin with so it’s hard to envision them handing him the number one job right away.)  They can always decide to defer the choice and let next season play out but without a top goaltending prospect that’s close to being NHL ready in their system, going that route may be a risky proposition in itself.

Add Defensive Help

This has been a long-standing concern for Edmonton and while Chiarelli has attempted to improve it over the years with the additions of Adam Larsson, Sekera and Russell, more upgrades are required.

In particular, a true top pairing player would go a long way towards solidifying things.  Their current group is a collection of defenders that are better served in supporting roles than logging the most minutes.  Getting deeper has helped the cause but if they want to get back into contention, finding someone that can push those players into roles they’re better suited for would go a long way.

However, adding that type of defender is much easier said than done, especially considering their salary cap situation.  Washington’s John Carlson can log the heavy minutes and is following up a career year with a strong postseason but he is pretty much out of their price range.  Accordingly, Chiarelli will likely have to turn to the trade market once again where he will hope to make a better move than the one he made to land Larsson two summers ago.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Joel Persson Linked To Edmonton Oilers

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The Edmonton Oilers may have found another skilled defenseman to add to the blue line, as Ryan Rishaug of TSN tweets that the team has “locked up” Joel Persson. Persson played this season for Vaxjo of the SHL, where he recorded 34 points in 51 games during his first year at the highest level in Sweden. He was a big part of getting that club to a SHL Championship, while also leading all defensemen in Champions League scoring.

Persson, 24, was quite a surprise for Vaxjo this season and continued to improve on a near-daily basis. The young defenseman will immediately inject some more puck-moving skill into the Edmonton system, though it’s not clear if he’ll make the NHL team out of camp. Even more importantly perhaps for the Oilers is that the 5’11” defender is right-handed, giving them another option behind Adam Larsson and Matt Benning. Though others including Kris Russell have played the right side, there was a distinct lack of depth throughout the organization.

At Persson’s age, a one-year entry-level contract would be necessary which would send him to restricted free agency in 2019. That’s very little risk for a player who has taken such huge strides this season, and could continue to get even better in a short period of time.

Edmonton Oilers Sign Stuart Skinner

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It’s been a good 24 hours for Stuart Skinner. The 19-year old goaltender for the Swift Current Broncos won the WHL Championship last night, and today has signed his three-year entry-level contract with the Edmonton Oilers.

Skinner, the Oilers’ third-round pick in 2017, posted an incredible .932 save percentage in the postseason for Swift Current, including six shutouts en route to the title. He’ll now play in the upcoming Memorial Cup, before likely heading to development camp in the summer. The big goaltender is a very interesting prospect and could represent the team’s future in net, though he still has several jumps to make in his development.

The Oilers don’t have a clear succession plan in place for their goaltending situation, with Cam Talbot scheduled to become an unrestricted free agent next summer. While they signed Mikko Koskinen out of the KHL recently, he’s also on just a one-year deal and will be a UFA in 2019. Behind those two, who figure to be the NHL tandem in 2018-19, there is a group of goaltenders including Laurent Brossoit and Nick Ellis who have all failed to show anything that would make one believe they can handle a starting job in the NHL. Brossoit is actually a UFA this summer, and doesn’t look like he’ll be retained at all.

Fellow CHL prospect Dylan Wells struggled this season in Peterborough, and is a long-shot to make a real impact at the NHL level. That leaves Skinner as the best goaltending prospect in the system, and one that will be watched carefully over the next few years. If he shows that his recent playoff performance can be repeated next season in the WHL, perhaps the team won’t have to go out and acquire another long-term option in net, instead just re-signing Talbot and hoping Skinner can make the team before long.

Latest On Ilya Kovalchuk

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One name that will grace the free agent market this summer and could be seen as a game-changer for some teams is Ilya Kovalchuk, as he returns from the KHL. Though now 35, some believe he still has what it takes to be an impact player in the NHL and could be one of the top free agents left come July 1st. It has been reported that Kovalchuk would prefer to play on the east coast in a place like New York or Florida, but there are no shortage of teams all over the league who could use a goal-scoring winger. One of those is the Edmonton Oilers, who have struggled to find enough talent to surround Connor McDavid.

That’s why it’s interesting that Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet notes in his latest column that the Oilers checked in on Kovalchuk. Friedman notes that “it won’t happen” and Bob Stauffer of 630 CHED adds that he believes the Oilers never even pursued the Russian winger. Edmonton will need to look elsewhere for their offensive upgrade, though it’s not clear where exactly it will come from.

For Kovalchuk, it’s unclear what his market will really be. Though it’s true that teams do need scoring wingers, he comes with more baggage than the average free agent. Not only does his history—”retiring” from the New Jersey Devils in the midst of a long-term contract to return to the KHL—stand against him with some front offices, but he also qualifies as a 35+ player this offseason. That means that a team would be held culpable for his cap hit regardless of any similar retirement decisions in the future, a risky prospect in the tight salary structures of many contenders. The Rangers, assumed the most appealing destination to Kovalchuk, are entering a mini-rebuild and may not want to spend money on an aging star. They have admitted their focus is on young players, and signing Kovalchuk for anything but big minutes and powerplay time is unlikely.

So, we’ll have to wait and see what kind of market emerges for the Russian sniper. It will likely be easier to count the teams interested than those who are not, though you can now place the Oilers firmly in the latter category.

Snapshots: Hunwick, Pitlick, Stars

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Matt Hunwick’s first season in Pittsburgh did not go according to plan. After signing a three-year, $6.75MM contract with the Penguins at the opening of free agency, the expectations were that Hunwick would be a capable everyday defenseman. Yet, by the trade deadline Hunwick had missed 18 games due to injury and a few more due to healthy scratches and had just five points on the year to show for the games he did play in. Less than a year in to a three-year pact, GM Jim Rutherford was searching for a way to move his contract. When he couldn’t, Hunwick ended up watching 26 of the Penguins final 29 regular season games and each game of the postseason from the press box. These disappointing results are not lost on Hunwick though; the veteran defenseman was honest in his self-criticism when speaking to the gathered media yesterday, reports The Athletic’s Seth Rorabaugh. Hunwick did attribute some of the blame for his poor play to injury and a Penguins system that was difficult to adjust to, but largely took responsibility for the campaign by admitting his lack of a mental edge. “I don’t think I played with enough confidence throughout the season…Maybe (confidence was) part of the reason (for struggling)”, Hunwick said, adding ““I’d hope to play a lot better (next season). I’d like to be more assertive and be more confident right out of the gate. Now knowing the system and the guys, I think that should happen.” Maybe that will happen for Hunwick, but that is assuming he remains in Pittsburgh to begin next season. Rutherford still faces the pressure of the salary cap crunch and an overpaid depth defenseman is an ideal target to move out, if possible. Hunwick has proven to be a capable player over his career and he very likely would improve in year two with the Penguins, but he may not be afforded the opportunity after a rough start this year.

  • On the other end of the spectrum is Dallas Stars forward Tyler Pitlick. In grading out the roster after a frustrating end to the season – a late-season collapse that cost the team a playoff spot – Sportsday’s Joshua Friemel calls Pitlick a highlight of an otherwise disappointing season. In fact, Friemel states that Pitlick may have even been a better off-season addition than big-name acquisitions Ben Bishop, Marc Methot, or Martin Hanzal. The Stars spent right up to the cap in 2017-18, but paid Pitlick only $1MM and got 80 games and 27 points back in return. Friemel points out that his 14 goals were good enough for sixth on the team and they were also more than Jason Spezza and Antoine Roussel combined, who together made $9.5MM. Pitlick also contributed on the penalty kill and was one of the Stars’ more physical and effective two-way players. Better yet, Pitlick still has two years remaining on his deal at that same bargain rate. The underutilized Edmonton Oilers prospect may have been little more than a waiver when he signed in Dallas and may have flown under the radar this season, but going forward his value will no longer go unnoticed.
  • Staying in Dallas, Stars owner Tom Gaglardi made the rare cross-organization reassignment today. The Kamloops Blazers, the WHL team that Gaglardi shares ownership in, today announced several front office changes, including the assignment of GM Stu MacGregor to the Stars organization, as Gaglardi also owns both Dallas and AHL Texas. The Athletic’s Sean Shapiro clarifies that MacGregor has been transferred to the Stars’ amateur scouting department, where his experience with junior hockey can be put toward a different purpose. With the Blazers finishing with the fifth-worst record in the league this season, changes were expected, but it’s a shrewd move by Gaglardi to replace his GM for one team without losing an asset by instead strengthening his other team.

Poll: Should The Edmonton Oilers Trade The 10th Pick?

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The Edmonton Oilers are picking in the top-10 again this year. That was not the expected outcome after their 103-point 2016-17, and especially not with a healthy Connor McDavid. The team finished 36-40-6 this year, and wasted the last season of McDavid’s relatively inexpensive entry-level contract. The captain will start his eight-year $100MM extension in 2018-19, and immediately put a strain on the team’s finances.

So, what do you do this summer? Do you select another high-upside player and hope that he and other young prospects like Jesse Puljujarvi can quickly ascend the ranks to dominate at the NHL level? Or do you pick up the phone and try to make a move to improve the club immediately?

As we wrote yesterday, Peter Chiarelli is apparently considering both options carefully. The Oilers’ GM is open to the idea of trading the 10th-overall pick, and Jim Matheson of the Edmonton Journal even called the odds “high” that it is moved at some point between now and June 25th. As Chiarelli put it:

A player at No. 9 or No. 10 isn’t going to play next year. We’ll certainly listen to offers, and if there is a trade, it would probably be on the draft floor.

The question is, should there really be a rush to compete? Now that McDavid is already into his expensive extension, and Leon Draisaitl is already on year two of his eight-year $68MM deal, it’s not like there is a closing window. In fact, with their best two players both 22-and-under, there could still be an argument to be made that the window will be widest after two or three more years. That’s incidentally when some of the expensive contracts for underperforming defensemen will come off the books, giving the team more flexibility to go after free agents or lock up internal options.

By then, the 10th-overall pick could be ready to be an impact player in the league, while whoever they trade for could be headed for the open market.

On the other hand, Cam Talbot is signed for just one more season and is now on the wrong side of 30, while Milan Lucic is already showing drastic signs of slowing down. Waiting could open up other holes on the roster, that can’t be filled without trading other valuable assets.

So should the Oilers make a move? Does it make sense to hold onto the pick? Cast your vote and leave your thoughts in the comment section below.

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Snapshots: KHL, Oilers, Tkachuk

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Recently, Sport.Buisness-gazeta out of Russia published a list of players that were expected to leave the NHL this summer and return to the KHL. The list was made up of Nikolai Kulemin, Victor Antipin, Nikita Soshnikov, Rinat Valiev, Sergey Tolchinsky, Radel Fazleev, Andrey Pedan, Yaroslav Dyblenko, Sergei Boykov, Yakov Trenin and Anton Slepyshev. With the news this morning of Dyblenko’s pending contract termination, another one of the players have been confirmed to be returning. When added to the already confirmed exits of Tolchinsky, Valiev and others, it lends credibility to the entire list, meaning several others will likely be announced in the coming days.

Players like Soshnikov and Antipin were expected to be contributors to their NHL squads in 2018-19, but are both pending restricted free agents meaning they can easily go home if they so choose. For the NHL club, extending a qualifying offer will retain the exclusive negotiating rights with the player going forward, rights that won’t expire because of the lack of a transfer agreement between the two leagues.

  • The Edmonton Oilers are set to select 10th in the upcoming NHL Entry Draft, but as Jim Matheson of the Edmonton Journal writes, GM Peter Chiarelli has made it clear they will explore trading the pick. Connor McDavid is already one of the best players in the league, and the Oilers need to take advantage of these prime years while they have them. Their defense corps just wasn’t good enough this season, and whoever they would take this season likely wouldn’t be ready to contribute until 2019-20 at the earliest. The Oilers have plenty of other tough decisions to make this summer, as they face contract negotiations with Darnell Nurse and Ryan Strome, and the daunting task of providing some support for McDavid up front. The team has already brought in some competition for Cam Talbot in the form of Mikko Koskinen, who cost the team a one-year $2.5MM contract.
  • Speaking of draft picks who won’t make an impact next season, Mike McMahon of College Hockey News is reporting that the plan right now is for Brady Tkachuk to return to Boston University for his sophomore season. Tkachuk is expected to be a top-5 pick in the upcoming entry draft, and could still obviously be convinced by an NHL team to leave school early. That may change the draft board for some of the top teams who want to compete in 2018-19 and are hoping for a player who can step right into the league in October.

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