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Offseason Keys: New York Islanders

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While the expansion draft is set to headline a busy NHL offseason, there are still several other storylines for each team in the months ahead. Here is a closer look at what lies ahead for the New York Islanders.

Midseason coaching changes can often spark teams and that’s what happened this season for the Islanders.  The team went 17-17-4 under Jack Capuano but after he was let go, they responded under Doug Weight, going 24-12-4 down the stretch.  It wasn’t enough to make the playoffs but it certainly allowed them to go into the offseason with more optimism.  One key decision was already made by removing the interim tag for Weight; here are three other things that will draw GM Garth Snow’s attention in the coming months.

Extension Talks For Tavares

Let’s get the obvious one out of the way first.  Captain John Tavares is one year away from unrestricted free agency and is eligible to sign an extension as early as July 1st.  We saw in the past with Steven Stamkos the potential distraction that can arise when a deal doesn’t get done prior to the start of a season.  Even this past year, Tavares was facing questions about his potential willingness to sign an extension before he’s even eligible to do so.

Dec 29, 2016; Saint Paul, MN, USA; New York Islanders forward John Tavares (91) against the Minnesota Wild at Xcel Energy Center. The Wild defeated the Islanders 6-4. Mandatory Credit: Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY SportsEach time that came up, the 26 year old reaffirmed his commitment to staying with the franchise that drafted him first overall back in 2009.  Accordingly, if they can find common ground on a new deal, this is one of those situations where the sooner it gets done, the better so that there is no potential for any distractions entering the season.

Finding the right fit financially becomes the challenge.  It’s a certainty that Tavares is set to get a significant raise from the $6MM he’s set to earn in salary in 2017-18 ($5.5MM cap hit).  There’s a case to be made that he’s worthy of a similar deal to Anze Kopitar of the Kings, eight years and $80MM.  Will Tavares look to maximize his pay day though or will he take a bit less as a ‘hometown discount’ and leave management a bit more room to work with?  Either way, his situation has to be priority number one for Snow this summer.

Determine If The Goalie Situation Is Feasible

Last season was a rocky one for Jaroslav Halak.  He struggled at the outset and was frustrated by the three goalie system that the team was employing and eventually asked for a trade.  Instead, he went on waivers and passed through unclaimed.  He was very good at AHL Bridgeport and wound up being recalled late in the year and played a role in their late push for the playoffs.  Does that mean his trade request is no longer in place though?

The three goalie issue isn’t likely to recur as Jean-Francois Berube is heading towards Group VI unrestricted free agency and isn’t expected to return.  However, Thomas Greiss, who took over the starting role for most of the season, is still with the team and is starting a new three year, $10MM deal.  Accordingly, he figures to enter 2017-18 as the expected starter once again.

Halak is heading into the final year of his contract with a $4.5MM cap hit and a $5MM salary.  It seems likely that he’ll be hoping for more playing time so he could become someone to join what’s expected to be a large goalie market in the hopes of finding him a better fit.  While there wasn’t much interest midseason, his second half should get him back on the radar if the Isles think it’s worthwhile looking at going in another direction.

Free Up Cap Space

While they don’t have many contract spots to fill next season, the Isles are also pretty tight to the salary cap with just shy of $71MM committed already per CapFriendly.  They have ten forwards with a cap hit of $2.5MM or greater (though that includes Mikhail Grabovski who is a candidate to return to LTIR after his concussion symptoms cost him all of this season).  They have some players making more money than the role would call for.

They still also have defenseman Calvin de Haan to re-sign and he is due a qualifying offer of $2.9MM.  With the cap not expected to go up by a significant amount this offseason, that doesn’t leave New York a whole lot of room to work with, even if Grabovski is LTIR-bound.  As a result, Snow will likely be working the phones to see if he can save a bit of payroll, especially if he has any plans of being involved in free agency in July.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Islanders Notes: de Haan, Buchberger, Kovalchuk

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Though Elliotte Friedman’s latest “30 Thoughts” column is packed full with interesting information, the most eye opening news might have to do with the New York Islanders. Friedman thinks that the Detroit Red Wings may come calling for Calvin de Haan before the expansion draft, after his excellent World Championship tournament.

de Haan is at risk of being exposed in the expansion draft, as the Islanders currently have to protect Johnny Boychuk due to his no-movement clause.  With Nick Leddy, Travis Hamonic, Thomas Hickey and Ryan Pulock all eligible for selection as well, de Haan will have a hard time earning a protection slot. The Islanders also don’t have a ton of money to offer de Haan as he becomes a restricted free agent, because of the negotiations that are coming down the pipe in the summer of 2018 for the Islanders—not only is John Tavares a free agent but Josh Bailey, Brock Nelson, Ryan Strome, Shane Prince and Alan Quine are all due up.

  • Not only will Luke Richardson join the Islanders’ coaching staff, but Kelly Buchberger will as well. Buchberger was an assistant with the Edmonton Oilers between 2008-14, and has been seen recently with Weight watching WHL games. Buchberger and Weight of course were teammates with the Oilers for nearly a decade.
  • Friedman also touches on one of the hottest-button topics in hockey right now, Ilya Kovalchuk’s potential return. He notes that since Kovalchuk seems to want to play for the Rangers, perhaps he could be swayed to play for the other New York team instead. The Islanders do have a pretty enticing spot open riding shotgun with Tavares, but for the same reason listed above would have trouble giving him anything more than a short term deal. Though the Islanders do have some money hitting LTIR when the season starts in Mikhail Grabovski, that $5MM hurts their cap situation during the summer. It’ll take a lot of work to work Kovalchuk into the current salary structure, but if they were to find a way they’d immediately have one of the most dangerous lines in the league.

New York Islanders Offseason Update

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The New York Islanders have two main concerns this offseason: re-signing captain and current face of the franchise John Tavares, and finding a stable home. Today’s updates address both those issues.

  • Newsday’s Arthur Staple says that the Islanders will probably offer Tavares eight years and around $10MM a year. This is a no-brainer for the team, who can offer Tavares one more year than any other team as long as Tavares remains an Islander. The money also makes sense. Tavares is a franchise player in the prime of his career, and will most likely garner contracts comparable to Jonathan Toews and Anze Kopitar.
  • What may temper expectations, however, is that Tavares underwent surgery on his right hand last month, Staple reports. The surgery addressed a lingering problem that plagued Tavares during the season, but should not impede his offseason. Tavares will take the cast off next week with plenty of time to spare.
  • The Islanders received official notice from its landlords Brooklyn Sports and Entertainment—who run the Barclays Center—opening the licensing agreement negotiating window. If no deal is reached, either side can choose to maintain the status quo or opt out of the deal. According to Newsday’s Jim Baumbach and Robert Brodsky, who reported the story, the Isles could leave as early as next season, or Barclays could force them out after the 2018-19 season.

Course Adjustment For Colorado

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Colorado needs to determine the road ahead for its franchise. The unexpected plummet to the 4th overall pick in the draft lottery did not help matters, to be sure, but the Avalanche need more than a Nolan Patrick to catapult them back into contention. The team has lacked identity for years and a team philosophy is hard to isolate. The team finished a league worst 22 wins, good for an embarrassingly bad 48 points. They were not expected to be serious cup contenders coming into the year, but this is a team that had veteran scorers and a decent goaltending duo to back up their young forward core. Yet they finished in dead last in both offensive and defensive categories – 1.74 goals for per 60, and 2.93 goals against. With such an incredible disparity it’s actually impressive they won as many contests as they did.

GM Joe Sakic needs to determine which pieces of his core (if any) are worth keeping. It seems probable that the team could consider trading away its captain in Gabriel Landeskog, and the case for doing so is strong. He potted only 18 goals and 15 assists this season, his 5th full campaign – at the exorbitant price of $5.5 MM (which will become $6 MM next season). The center has never developed into the offensive threat the franchise had hoped when he was selected 2nd overall in 2011. His point totals have dropped for the second season in a row. However, his Corsi For % was actually his career best at 52.8, and on a team that bled goals and chances, he performed admirably in his own end. Whether he is worth his deal is certainly a less pressing issue than stopping the bleeding. Unless an over-payment comes along the Avalanche would be wise to stick out at least another season with the still-promising left wing.

Speedy forward Matt Duchene is two years older, and fared only marginally better, with 18 goals and 23 assists. Duchene is not physically imposing a 5’11”, and he is more effective on the rush. His speed and versatility are his greatest assets. Duchene’s skating can burn defenders and his skating is among the tops in the league. When considering that the quick and fleet-footed Nathan MacKinnon is also on the team, it seems that Colorado might want to double down on the speed aspect of their negligible identity. Duchene would almost certainly draw more interest than Landeskog, as the forward did pot 30 goals just the previous season. Although the talk seems distant now, there was considerable conversation following the 2009 draft that the Islanders would have done better to draft Duchene than John Tavares. This is a player who can make a meaningful difference on the playmaking side of things, but saw a drastic drop off in play. Trading Duchene seems the most logical option, but his departure will only leave the center ice position more lackluster.

The Avalanche could toy with moving RFA center Mikhail Grigorenko, or RFA defenseman Patrick Wiercioch, but the returns after last season would be marginal at best. One can only assume that Sakicc attempted to unload forwards like Blake Comeau ($2.5 MM), and now UFA defenseman Fedor Tyutin to no avail. Thankfully the well-worn Jarome Iginla was shipped off to Los Angeles and there are indeed older players coming off the books. The 35 year-old Rene Bourque and 32 year-old John Mitchell will both be UFAs and will have difficulty finding work next season in the league.

Ultimately, the problem for the Avalanche wasn’t that their stars didn’t produce, although that certainly didn’t help their goal totals. Their team was filled with washed-up veterans and outside of the big 3 on offense there was really no threat to score. On the backend, once Erik Johnson went down, the rest of the defense was not nearly good enough to keep up. Tyson Barrie is the only player who should feel remotely safe, and the young RFA Nikita Zadorov is likely to hang around. Francois Beauchemin is not the defender he was even two seasons ago, and if he could somehow be traded it would help performance substantially.

Trading away the #4 selection is usually an unthinkable notion with a team at this stage of a rebuild, but if they can move it for substantial help on defense or on the wing, it should be considered. Especially considering how mediocre this draft class is, it might turn out to be a prudent maneuver. One of Landeskog or Duchene seems likely to depart, but without a king’s ransom coming back, it’s not likely to alter long-term prospects for the franchise. Colorado simply needs to draft better, develop better, and find a coach with the structure that a young, struggling squad will need. If they could make a serious pitch to Karl Alzner this off-season, or perhaps even Thomas Vanek on the wing, they would be in a better position to compete on a nightly basis. Their offensive stars are unlikely to be quite as dreadful in points production yet again. Perhaps the most positive aspect of the upcoming season will be the infusion of youth from the minor leagues, and the ditching of dead weight up and down the lineup. Sakic will need to provide stability for the franchise and perhaps even display some patience rather than dumping a slumping offensive talent for a lackluster package. Although fans may wish for change at any cost, ditching their core players for scraps is not likely the best way forward. Whatever course Colorado decides to take, fans around the league will be watching with interest this summer.

Snapshots: Bruins, Chayka, Canadiens

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The Boston Bruins’ GM Don Sweeney met with the media today, and Fluto Shinzawa of the Boston Globe reported on many of his answers. The executive put the pressure on himself to improve the Bruins after their first-round exit, saying that their middle-six needs the most work.

Sweeney also said that he’ll likely go with the 7-3-1 expansion draft option and that he won’t reveal what’s next for Ryan Spooner, the latter of which is especially interesting. Spooner didn’t play in the elimination game for the Bruins, and is a restricted free agent this summer. Many teams would have interest in the 25-year old should Boston feel his time is up as a Bruin.

  • Though John Chayka has been linked to the Buffalo Sabres GM search, Craig Morgan of AZ Sports is here to quash any thoughts of him leaving the desert. Morgan reports that the Coyotes would deny any request of permission to talk to Chayka about a job, though he makes it clear that that doesn’t mean Buffalo has yet. It would have been shocking for the Coyotes to allow Chayka to leave so soon after giving him the reins, even if it was to an Eastern Conference team near his hometown. Chayka has a lot of work still left to do in Arizona if he’s to turn that team around and establish them in the city.
  • Count the Montreal Canadiens as the latest suitor for John Tavares, despite his repeated intention to stay with the New York Islanders. Eric Engels of Sportsnet writes that the Canadiens should do whatever it takes to acquire the superstar center should he become available. Though the Tavares-sweepstakes aren’t real just yet, the bigger point of the Engels piece is that the Canadiens still need that #1 center they’ve been after for so long. With the clear message that Alex Galchenyuk isn’t considered the future of that position any longer, the Canadiens will be on the hunt all summer.

Snapshots: Red Wings, Granlund, Niederreiter, Dubnyk

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Could the Red Wings make a run at John Tavares should he not re-sign with the Islanders next season? The Detroit Free Press’ Helene St. James thinks so. St. James answered a number of questions from readers,  and one is if Tavares would be on Detroit’s radar should be hit the free agent market in 2018. While the Wings would certainly be a number of suitors for the gifted forward, Detroit would have to make some significant moves to free up cap space, which St. James also touches on. She writes that the Wings could move a number of players during the offseason, naming Jimmy Howard, Luke Glendening, Riley Sheahan, and Gustav Nyquist as possible targets.

In other news from around the league:

  • The Wild are weighing the plan to lock up Mikael Granlund and Nino Niederreiter to long term deals writes the Pioneer Press’ Chad Graff. Minnesota general manager Chuck Fletcher cautions those pointing to the lack of playoff success from both players, saying, “You’ve got to make sure you read enough into it to know what you didn’t do right, but five games are five games. You’ve got to be a little bit careful. Sometimes guys can get hot; sometimes guys can get cold.” The Wild could go a number of ways on this. Graff reports that they may ink both to shorter deals or allow things to go to an arbitrator since both players are restricted free agents.
  • Graff also writes about Wild netminder Devan Dubnyk, who posted great numbers in the playoffs (1.86 GAA, .925 save percentage) but didn’t get the goal support. Fletcher believes that it wasn’t at all on Dubnyk, who struggled a bit to end the season. Instead, he points to Blues goalie Jake Allen, who played out of his mind during the series. Additionally, Fletcher said that it boiled down to the Wild not cashing in on their scoring chances, which included point blank shots.

RFAs Looking For Playoff Payouts

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Every post-season, players look to make their mark. Relative unknowns break onto the scene, rookies steal the show, and goaltenders go from backup to fan-embraced starter. Contracts are always in the back of management’s thinking, however, and a strong post-season showing for a player can cost a team in dollars. Here are some restricted free agents who could stand to earn a more lucrative deal depending on how far their teams go and how bright they shine individually.

 

Ryan Johansen – NSH

Johansen will look to get a slight raise from his current $4.0 MM cap hit. A large determinant for whether he will see a take-home pay ($6.0 MM) decrease or not will be his performance in these playoffs. Johansen’s past two seasons have been fruitful in terms of points, 60 in 15-16 and 61 in 16-17, but not quite the numbers of the marquee offensive star Nashville fans were hoping for. This is a player who scored 33 goals in the 13-14 season, and was projected to consistently flirt with 80 points. Johansen’s imposing frame and play-style is a challenge for opposing centers, and he has undeniably improved his defensive prowess. Johansen only potted 14 goals this year, but it is fair to say his game has become more well-rounded. His Corsi For % took a massive hop from last season, taking a solid 52.3% to a remarkable 55.9% this past outing. Considering his quality of competition and his ability to provide solid two-way play, Johansen will be looking to prove his worth this post-season with a deep post-season run with the Predators.

Evgeny Kuznetsov – WAS

Washington’s Kuznetsov should definitely be considered part of the team’s core. At 24 years old, the center has already tallied a 77 point season and had a 5-goal playoff run. His inconsistency in terms of production could hinder his payday, however, as he struggled to regain his footing in what was essentially his third full season. He returned to form on the backend of the season, totaling a respectable if unremarkable 59 points. The flashy forward already has 3 points through 5 games against Toronto,  and a strong playoff showing can only help his position. With Nicklas Backstrom taking first-line duties and the red-hot Justin Williams on his wing, Kuznetsov could easily find himself in the spotlight again. Whether his next contract is a bridge deal at a lower cost or a long-term lock-down, Kuznetsov is certain to see a raise from his measly $3 MM.

Leon Draisaitl – EDM

Anyone who has watched Edmonton this season in hopes of catching a glimpse of Connor McDavid has undoubtedly been shocked and/or awed by the dominance of his 21 year-old linemate Draisaitl. Draisaitl’s vision with the puck and dogged determination make him a beautiful sight to behold. He accumulated an absurd 77 points this season, 29 goals and 48 assists, in what was only his second full season. The forward is already flirting with a point per game, and has shown remarkable chemistry with the generational talent McDavid. His flexibility in being able to shift from center to wing only makes him that much more valuable to the franchise. The Oilers will obviously pay whatever price is needed to lock up Draisaitl long-term, but the deeper the team goes, the better his bargaining position. He’s obviously going to get a fair deal more than his current $3.4 MM, likely upwards of $6 MM.

Conor Sheary – PIT

Conor Sheary had an incredible breakout season that practically no one, even Penguins fans, expected. On Sidney Crosby’s wing, the short-statured winger made himself absolutely invaluable. The chemistry the two showed together hadn’t really been seen since the likes of Hossa in Pittsburgh’s Finals run of 2007-08. Sheary is in a bit of a bind, however, as Jake Guentzel has shown equal or even greater chemistry with the league’s marquee center since being placed on the top line. Sheary struggled to find his groove in the first round series, even being demoted to the third line in favor of Patric Hornqvist. Sheary is a good bet to string together solid showings in the next round, but if he does not, perhaps it impacts his case for a long-term contract. Regardless, Sheary will look to eat up a large portion of the money allocated this offseason in Pittsburgh, as his current $0.925 MM cap hit is one of the best bargains in the league. His 53 points in 61 games placed him at 23rd in the league in points per game, ahead of the likes of Phil Kessel and John Tavares.

Mika Zibanejad – NYR

The Rangers organization loves this player, and it is easy to see why. His point totals had steadily increased the past three seasons, and he was looking to do so again if he did not miss so many games to injury. Zibanejad is a strong center who takes pride in his two-way ability. He has a solid shot, although he might be criticized for under-utlizing it, and is often deployed against opposing team’s top players. Considering that New York gave up the solid veteran Derick Brassard to acquire his skillset, they are nearly certain to double down on Zibanejad’s continued improvement. His role will only expand as the leadership of the team ages and he will be expected to fill some of the leadership void left behind. Zibanejad is up for a new contract, and will look for a sizable raise over his current $2.625 MM. There is perhaps still untapped offensive potential left in Zibanejad’s game, but will he display it in these playoffs? He has already potted 4 points in 6 games in the team’s successful series against Montreal, including an overtime winner.

Eastern Notes: Yzerman, Tavares, Hellberg

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The Tampa Bay Lightning might be currently watching the playoffs rather than playing in them, but Steve Yzerman is already working on his offseason plans. The GM has said his top priority this season is to lock up three core restricted free agents in Ondrej Palat, Tyler Johnson and Jonathan Drouin, which is expected to be quite a challenge, considering how up against the salary cap the Lightning are this offseason.

Tampa Bay Times writer Joe Smith suggests Yzerman might have trouble signing all three of them and acquire a top-four defenseman they desperately need and acquire a goaltender they need at the same time. That doesn’t include Victor Hedman’s $7.875MM extension that kicks in (and almost doubles) next year and the future contract they will have to negotiate with Nikita Kucherov in two years, which is likely to be huge.

Yzerman successfully helped Tampa Bay’s cap situation at the trade deadline when he moved the contracts of Ben Bishop ($4.76MM), Brian Boyle ($2MM) and Valtteri Filppula ($5MM). While all three were important to the Lightning, getting their cap numbers off their books only increased their chances of resigning the trio of young stars.

The scribe writes the Lightning should focus their efforts on resigning both Palat and Johnson who are integral to the team’s success and even went on to suggest that the team should consider trading the 22-year old Drouin, who enjoyed a breakout campaign this year. The thought being that Drouin may have the most trade value of the three and might net them a nice haul right before the 2017 NHL draft.

Smith also suggested other possibilities including looking to the Las Vegas Golden Knights, which has heavily scouted Tampa Bay in the last couple of months, as an option to move a player like Johnson as there is a potential replacement for him in rookie Brayden Point.

All said and done, Yzerman has his work cut out for him this offseason.

Other notes:

  • The New York Islanders, also sitting home during the playoffs, need to focus their attention on re-signing star player John Tavares. The belief is that the Islanders naming Doug Weight the permanent coach was critical to get the 26-year old star to return. Weight, who served as interim coach since January, produced a successful second half for the Islanders as he posted the second-best NHL record during that time. Unfortunately, they fell short of reaching the playoffs, but it is believed that Weight’s return will only help in Tavares opting to return. Tavares, who led the team with 28 goals and 38 assists for 66 points, is in line for a potential 8-year, $100MM extension this summer. A free agent defection would be crippling to the Islanders’ franchise.
  • The New York Rangers have recalled goaltender Magnus Hellberg for Game 3 of their playoff game with the Canadiens today. He will serve only as an emergency backup as the Hartford Wolf Pack just finished their regular season.

 

Tavares Week-To-Week With Lower-Body Injury

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The New York Islanders dwindling playoff chances, already on life support with the team four points out and just five games remaining, may have just received the final nail in the proverbial coffin. The team announced this morning that team captain John Tavares is week-to-week with a lower body injury. With just eight days remaining in the regular season, the injury would therefore have a good chance of prematurely ending the star center’s season.

Cal Clutterbuck told Brett Crygalis of the New York Post that Tavares appeared to have caught his skate in a rut in the Barclays Center ice, leading to the injury. The quality of the ice at Barclays Center has long been an issue and it seems to have led to the loss of the Islanders best player at a time they need him most.

Tavares leads the Islanders in scoring with 66 points, 14 ahead of second place Josh Bailey. He’s second on the club in goals with 28, just one behind Anders Lee.

Even with Tavares in the lineup, the Islanders were faced with a tall task trying to make it to the postseason. The team is four points behind the Bruins for the second wild card spot in the east with both Tampa Bay and Carolina, each of whom has a game in hand on the Isles, ahead of them in the standings. According to the Sports Club Stats website, the Islanders have just a 2.9% chance of making it to the postseason. Minus Tavares, those odds today are practically zero.

Assuming the Islanders do come up short in their pursuit of a postseason berth, the long term future of their franchise player will immediately take center stage in Brooklyn. Tavares will be an unrestricted free agent following the 2017-18 season and has expressed at every every opportunity his desire to remain with the team that drafted him first overall in 2009. However, if Tavares questions whether the Islanders have the means and wherewithal to challenge for a Stanley Cup, he may not wish to tie himself to the club through the balance of his prime seasons. Unless and until he inks an extension, Tavares will likely dominate the hockey hot stove headlines beginning in the summer of 2017.

John Tavares Future In New York

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Will John Tavares be wearing a New York Islanders jersey next season? What about the season after that?

The Islanders captain will be an unrestricted free agent in the summer of 2018. Like Steven Stamkos before him, there’s a brewing media storm about the Ontario boy coming home to play with the Maple Leafs. But with Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, and William Nylander all coming up for new contracts in the next three years, the Maple Leafs wouldn’t be able to afford Tavares without major re-structuring. But that doesn’t mean Tavares will copy Stamkos and sign a long-term extension.

While the Islanders are in the midst of a playoff battle (two points behind final wildcard spot with a game in hand), it hasn’t been a great year for the franchise. After a few debatable free agency moves, arena problems, and a coaching change, the Islanders have gone from a 100-point season and visit to the second round to fighting to make the playoffs at all. Tavares has publicly stated that he’s interested in signing an extension, but many hockey insiders have wondered about his willingness to sign long-term based on the questions surrounding the Islanders. Last week, TSN’s Darren Dreger said he “wouldn’t be shocked” if the Islanders explored trading Tavares this summer, and Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman re-iterated those rumors on Hockey Night In Canada last night.

It’s likely that Tavares is worth somewhere between $8.5MM and $10MM on a long-term contract. Our Gavin Lee suggested Stamkos and Anze Kopitar as good comparables for Tavares. The Islanders will have the space two years from now to offer that money, with Jaroslav Halak, Mikhail Grabovski, and Nikolai Kulemin all coming off the books that summer.

Friedman pointed out that the Islanders have offered Tavares’ agent, Pat Brisson, a job running their hockey operations at least once. The idea was to make Tavares more comfortable signing long-term. If the team struggles to get Tavares locked up and decides to trade him this summer, the right trade could set the franchise up for the next decade.

If Tavares signs long-term, then the club will have to make moves to surround him with the talent to become a Stanley Cup contender; if he wants to move on, then it will be a full-on rebuild for the Islanders.

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