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Matt Martin Speaks Out On John Tavares Free Agency

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Since John Tavares didn’t sign a contract extension with the New York Islanders when he became eligible on July 1st, most of the hockey world has started to speculate on what it means for his future. Tavares will be a free agent in the summer of 2018, and will have contract discussion follow him all year like Steven Stamkos a year ago. Though Tavares has never said anything that would make you think he wants to leave New York, many believe the uncertainty regarding their future arena plans and the relative disappointments on the ice throughout Tavares’ career could push him to greener pastures. John Tavares

For what it’s worth, former teammate and friend Matt Martin of the Toronto Maple Leafs—a long speculated destination for the Toronto-born Tavares—doesn’t think so. Martin spoke to Brian Compton of NHL.com about several things including Tavares’ pending free agency, and made it clear that he supports any decision his friend will make.

As a friend of mine would it be great to have him? Absolutely. But I want him to do whatever will make him happy and wherever he feels where he can win and be successful is what you hope for.

Like Stamkos, Tavares would enter free agency as a young superstar capable of starting a bidding war between a dozen teams if not more. Top line centers in their prime don’t hit the market very often (see: never), and Tavares could easily challenge Connor McDavid for the title of highest paid player in the league should he make it that far. McDavid earned $12.5MM per season but was giving up just four UFA seasons and left money on the table to help the Oilers. Tavares will be just 27 next summer, and would basically have no comparables in free agency since the salary cap was introduced.

The speculation is only going to continue until a contract is signed, even though that may last until after next season like Stamkos last year. The Tampa Bay Lightning forward even met with other teams in the pre-July 1 window, but eventually settled at home for an eight-year deal. A similar script would be a distraction all year for the Islanders, but is a real possibility.

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Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Could Tampa Bay Package Johnson, Palat For Tavares?

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Don’t be surprised if the Tampa Bay Lightning attempt to flip their recently signed restricted free agents within the next year. At least that’s what the New York Post’s Larry Brooks believes will happen. He writes the long-term signings of Tyler Johnson and Ondrej Palat are likely going to be part of a package the Lightning will eventually make for New York Islanders’ John Tavares at some point next season if the Islanders can’t sign him.

While the Islanders have said they are not trading the veteran, there is growing concern that the 26-year-old is not happy with the franchise and might be ready to move on. The Islanders’ center is coming off a 28-goal season last year with 38 assists for 66 points. While the Islanders should get credit for doing everything they can to keep one of their stars after losing former star Kyle Okposo to Buffalo for nothing, Brooks believes they will be sellers near the trade deadline to avoid another major loss. He compares the situation to Tampa Bay’s worries about losing Steven Stamkos a year ago. In that situation, the Lightning were able to lock up their star to an eight-year deal, but this isn’t the same. The Lightning were a successful franchise and were loaded with talent. That’s not really the case with the Islanders. With stadium issues and a team that has struggled off and on, it wouldn’t be surprising if Tavares was looking at better options.

The undrafted Johnson has shown quite a bit of promise over the years although his numbers have dropped in the last couple of years. The 26-year-old center put up a 29-goal season two years ago, but finished this year with 19 goals and 26 assists in 66 games. Johnson’s seven-year, $35MM deal ($5MM AAV) could keep him in New York for a long time. Palat has quite a bit of similarities to Johnson as he is 26 as well and was not expected to be a top prospect as he was just a seventh-round pick in 2011. The left wing also started strong and has taken a step back from there, putting up 23 goals in his first full season with the Lightning. He still put up solid numbers last year, scoring 17 goals and 35 assists for 52 points. His five-year, $26.5MM deal is worth $5.3MM annually.

Although Tampa Bay might even have to offer more to get a player like Tavares, the deal would also work because both Johnson and Palat have no trade clauses that will kick in next July, so if the plan may be to package them for a star player, this next year will be their best opportunity to make a deal like that happen. On top of that, moving the two of them for Tavares could be a wash, salary-wise as the Islanders star could be asking for a contract in the $10MM range next year.

Rangers Must Begin To Worry About McDonagh

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The New York Rangers have emphasized defense this offseason with the signing of top free agent Kevin Shattenkirk and the re-signing of trade deadline acquisition Brendan Smith. Between the two of them, the Rangers have exactly $11MM per year locked up until the 2020-21 season. Tie in the $5.7MM invested in veteran Marc Staal, who not that long ago was being discussed as a buyout candidate, and New York has $16.7MM invested in three veteran defensemen over the next four years. That’s all well and good (even if Staal proves to be worth that type of money). The Rangers wanted to beef up their defense and they have done that even if it’s at the cost of their offense. However, there is one key aspect missing in their defense. Ryan McDonagh.

Yes, the team captain – heart and soul of their defense. He’s only locked in at a very reasonable $4.7MM for the next two years and the New York Post’s Larry Brooks suggests that he is the third most underpaid player in the NHL, which may cause the Rangers some problems in two years when he becomes a unrestricted free agent in the 2019-2020 season. Listing just Pittsburgh’s Sidney Crosby and the New York Islanders’ John Tavares as the most underpaid, the scribe writes that while Crosby’s career is cemented in Pittsburgh, that may not be the case for Tavares, who is currently making the Islanders sweat and possibly consider trading him before he leaves New York for nothing. That may be the same story for McDonough one year after that.

McDonough has two years to decide whether he wants to spend the rest of his career in New York. Brooks writes that he may be interested in returning home to Minnesota and joining a Wild team that should have the money to pay him handsomely in two years. Everything may come down to how he enjoys playing with offensively-gifted Kevin Shattenkirk compared to his previous long-time partner, defensively-gifted Dan Girardi. In the end, it may come down to money and whether the Rangers are willing to commit what is likely to be $7-8MM per year for possibly seven or eight years to keep their then-30-year-old captain when they are already overloaded with a large number of defensive contracts. The point is that McDonough will not make it to free agency as a Ranger. He will have enough power, like Tavares does with the Islanders now, to command whether he gets that long-term deal as a Ranger or force them into dealing him in a year.

Islanders’ Perplexing Side-Deal With Vegas

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As I briefly mentioned in a previous article, the New York Islanders decided to travel a very perplexing road with their protection list. They shielded only 3 forwards, and protected 5 defensemen, allowing a whole host of forwards to be claimed.  These include Brock Nelson, Ryan Strome, Casey Cizikas, Nikolai Kulemin, and Josh Bailey at the upper end of the spectrum. Defenseman Calvin de Haan, who has reportedly has had difficulty coming to a deal with management on a new contract, is also left at Vegas’ disposal

What complicates matters is that Arthur Staple of Newsday has been insinuating that the Islanders have a deal in place to protect Nelson, Strome, and de Haan, while others, such as Darren Dreger, believes the deal only applies to forwards.  NHL Numbers stated today that the protection agreement would protect only Bailey and Cizikas, which is easily the most disastrous deal of the group. From a pure value standpoint, Nelson, de Haan and Strome have far more value than either player. Staple believed yesterday evening that the Islanders were going to trade their 15th overall selection in order to push Vegas in a favorable direction. Even still, it doesn’t explain the particulars of the players protected.

John Tavares is an obvious keeper, and Andrew Ladd helped the offense in a big way after a rocky start. Anders Lee is coming off a phenomenal 34 goal season in only his 3rd full outing. The defense revolves around Nick Leddy and Travis Hamonic, and despite his steps backward Johnny Boychuk is a big minute eater for the team. You could have made a case for Ryan Pulock over Boychuk, and made that quite convincingly, but it seemed inevitable that team would lose a defender no matter what. Boychuk did have an NMC, which complicated that matter. Considering that the team was 17th in goals against this past season, that wasn’t exactly a worst-case scenario.

Instead of taking the orthodox 4-4 route and protecting Nelson or Strome as well as Pulock or de Haan, or protecting all but one forward in a 7-3 scheme, the Islanders chose instead to protect a relative no-name in Adam Pelech. Pelech had a solid season, to be sure, but he is a bottom-pairing defenseman and doesn’t project as a difference maker. By opting to leave these players exposed, they take a large aspect of the decision making out of their own hands. GM Garth Snow sacrificed a first round pick and a certain degree of autonomy to protect two forwards, when they could instead have done that on their own. If the end goal was to entice Vegas into selecting Thomas Hickey, they could have done so without the bizarre protection structure. This isn’t even delving into the insanity of surrendering a first-round selection to protect one mid-level player over another.

All in all, the Islanders and GM Garth Snow have stolen the show today for most bewildering decision. Unless the deal with Vegas is far more encompassing than it appears at the moment, they are looking to lose a solid contributor and a 1st-round pick when both could have been avoided.

 

The original article incorrectly linked Dylan Strome.

Deadline Approaches To Ask Players To Waive No-Movement Clauses

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On the heels of yesterday’s report that both Keith Yandle and Dion Phaneuf had been asked to waive their no-movement clauses in order to be exposed for the upcoming expansion draft, speculation is running rampant around the league on who else will be asked. Below is the full list of players who currently require protection due to their clauses. The deadline to submit a request to a player is 4pm CDT today, while the player must inform the team of his decision by the same time on Friday June 16th. Because the Stanley Cup Finals ended last night, Nashville and Pittsburgh will not receive an extension and will need to submit their requests at the same time as every other team.

Elliotte Friedman was on Sportsnet radio today and mentioned that the Anaheim Ducks have spoken with Kevin Bieksa about possibly waiving his clause, something examined at length in our recent Ducks Expansion Primer.

Anaheim (4)
Kevin Bieksa — Expected to be asked.
Ryan Getzlaf
Ryan Kesler
Corey Perry

Arizona (1)
Alex Goligoski

Boston (4)
David Backes
Patrice Bergeron
Zdeno Chara
David Krejci

Read more

Will Hamonic Stay In Brooklyn?

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In an off-season where the Islanders’ primary concerns will be extending John Tavares to quell rumors of his departure at the end of the season, and developing prospects into NHL ready contributors, focus on the blueline should not be overlooked.

Travis Hamonic’s stats aren’t particularly glamorous, with 3 goals and 11 assists through 49 games this past year. His Corsi For % was a career worst at a very unfortunate 43.0%, but many players struggled mightily this season in Brooklyn. He is the assistant captain of the team and his leadership with young players has been particularly important in the wake of losing both Kyle Okposo and Frans Nielsen a year ago. While Nick Leddy and Johnny Boychuk have been brilliant in their roles, Hamonic rounds the defense out with a shutdown type. Calvin de Haan has developed well and will contribute after the RFA negotiates his own contract with New York ownership. The potential error going forward is that the Islanders will see Hamonic as relatively expendable, and that could prove a costly mistake. For a franchise trying yet again to find a way back into the playoffs in a brutally competitive Metropolitan Division, losing top-4 defensemen at their lowest value is not acceptable asset management. If Hamonic were indeed dealt, it would presumably be for far less than Taylor Hall, which according to Arthur Staple and Lighthouse Hockey was an offer rejected by GM Garth Snow last off-season.

Hamonic is listed as the #5 prize in this years trade bait list by TSN which is slightly surprising for a relatively unassuming player. The Wild will almost assuredly trade one of Jonas Brodin (#2) or Mathew Dumba (#3) – leaving the Islanders with an enticing stalwart in a league with lots of struggling defensive squads. That said, it’s difficult to imagine a top line talent being the piece coming back. The Islanders’ stockpile of young players is already quite impressive, so established production is imperative. The player would also likely need to be a winger who could play with John Tavares, but he has had difficulty gelling with players in the past. Although Hamonic had a down year, management should view his overall performance with the franchise  rather than drawing conclusions from a tough final season under former coach Jack Capuano. Perhaps the wisest option is to allow Hamonic’s stock to rise again before considering a move.

Offseason Keys: New York Islanders

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While the expansion draft is set to headline a busy NHL offseason, there are still several other storylines for each team in the months ahead. Here is a closer look at what lies ahead for the New York Islanders.

Midseason coaching changes can often spark teams and that’s what happened this season for the Islanders.  The team went 17-17-4 under Jack Capuano but after he was let go, they responded under Doug Weight, going 24-12-4 down the stretch.  It wasn’t enough to make the playoffs but it certainly allowed them to go into the offseason with more optimism.  One key decision was already made by removing the interim tag for Weight; here are three other things that will draw GM Garth Snow’s attention in the coming months.

Extension Talks For Tavares

Let’s get the obvious one out of the way first.  Captain John Tavares is one year away from unrestricted free agency and is eligible to sign an extension as early as July 1st.  We saw in the past with Steven Stamkos the potential distraction that can arise when a deal doesn’t get done prior to the start of a season.  Even this past year, Tavares was facing questions about his potential willingness to sign an extension before he’s even eligible to do so.

Dec 29, 2016; Saint Paul, MN, USA; New York Islanders forward John Tavares (91) against the Minnesota Wild at Xcel Energy Center. The Wild defeated the Islanders 6-4. Mandatory Credit: Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY SportsEach time that came up, the 26 year old reaffirmed his commitment to staying with the franchise that drafted him first overall back in 2009.  Accordingly, if they can find common ground on a new deal, this is one of those situations where the sooner it gets done, the better so that there is no potential for any distractions entering the season.

Finding the right fit financially becomes the challenge.  It’s a certainty that Tavares is set to get a significant raise from the $6MM he’s set to earn in salary in 2017-18 ($5.5MM cap hit).  There’s a case to be made that he’s worthy of a similar deal to Anze Kopitar of the Kings, eight years and $80MM.  Will Tavares look to maximize his pay day though or will he take a bit less as a ‘hometown discount’ and leave management a bit more room to work with?  Either way, his situation has to be priority number one for Snow this summer.

Determine If The Goalie Situation Is Feasible

Last season was a rocky one for Jaroslav Halak.  He struggled at the outset and was frustrated by the three goalie system that the team was employing and eventually asked for a trade.  Instead, he went on waivers and passed through unclaimed.  He was very good at AHL Bridgeport and wound up being recalled late in the year and played a role in their late push for the playoffs.  Does that mean his trade request is no longer in place though?

The three goalie issue isn’t likely to recur as Jean-Francois Berube is heading towards Group VI unrestricted free agency and isn’t expected to return.  However, Thomas Greiss, who took over the starting role for most of the season, is still with the team and is starting a new three year, $10MM deal.  Accordingly, he figures to enter 2017-18 as the expected starter once again.

Halak is heading into the final year of his contract with a $4.5MM cap hit and a $5MM salary.  It seems likely that he’ll be hoping for more playing time so he could become someone to join what’s expected to be a large goalie market in the hopes of finding him a better fit.  While there wasn’t much interest midseason, his second half should get him back on the radar if the Isles think it’s worthwhile looking at going in another direction.

Free Up Cap Space

While they don’t have many contract spots to fill next season, the Isles are also pretty tight to the salary cap with just shy of $71MM committed already per CapFriendly.  They have ten forwards with a cap hit of $2.5MM or greater (though that includes Mikhail Grabovski who is a candidate to return to LTIR after his concussion symptoms cost him all of this season).  They have some players making more money than the role would call for.

They still also have defenseman Calvin de Haan to re-sign and he is due a qualifying offer of $2.9MM.  With the cap not expected to go up by a significant amount this offseason, that doesn’t leave New York a whole lot of room to work with, even if Grabovski is LTIR-bound.  As a result, Snow will likely be working the phones to see if he can save a bit of payroll, especially if he has any plans of being involved in free agency in July.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Islanders Notes: de Haan, Buchberger, Kovalchuk

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Though Elliotte Friedman’s latest “30 Thoughts” column is packed full with interesting information, the most eye opening news might have to do with the New York Islanders. Friedman thinks that the Detroit Red Wings may come calling for Calvin de Haan before the expansion draft, after his excellent World Championship tournament.

de Haan is at risk of being exposed in the expansion draft, as the Islanders currently have to protect Johnny Boychuk due to his no-movement clause.  With Nick Leddy, Travis Hamonic, Thomas Hickey and Ryan Pulock all eligible for selection as well, de Haan will have a hard time earning a protection slot. The Islanders also don’t have a ton of money to offer de Haan as he becomes a restricted free agent, because of the negotiations that are coming down the pipe in the summer of 2018 for the Islanders—not only is John Tavares a free agent but Josh Bailey, Brock Nelson, Ryan Strome, Shane Prince and Alan Quine are all due up.

  • Not only will Luke Richardson join the Islanders’ coaching staff, but Kelly Buchberger will as well. Buchberger was an assistant with the Edmonton Oilers between 2008-14, and has been seen recently with Weight watching WHL games. Buchberger and Weight of course were teammates with the Oilers for nearly a decade.
  • Friedman also touches on one of the hottest-button topics in hockey right now, Ilya Kovalchuk’s potential return. He notes that since Kovalchuk seems to want to play for the Rangers, perhaps he could be swayed to play for the other New York team instead. The Islanders do have a pretty enticing spot open riding shotgun with Tavares, but for the same reason listed above would have trouble giving him anything more than a short term deal. Though the Islanders do have some money hitting LTIR when the season starts in Mikhail Grabovski, that $5MM hurts their cap situation during the summer. It’ll take a lot of work to work Kovalchuk into the current salary structure, but if they were to find a way they’d immediately have one of the most dangerous lines in the league.

New York Islanders Offseason Update

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The New York Islanders have two main concerns this offseason: re-signing captain and current face of the franchise John Tavares, and finding a stable home. Today’s updates address both those issues.

  • Newsday’s Arthur Staple says that the Islanders will probably offer Tavares eight years and around $10MM a year. This is a no-brainer for the team, who can offer Tavares one more year than any other team as long as Tavares remains an Islander. The money also makes sense. Tavares is a franchise player in the prime of his career, and will most likely garner contracts comparable to Jonathan Toews and Anze Kopitar.
  • What may temper expectations, however, is that Tavares underwent surgery on his right hand last month, Staple reports. The surgery addressed a lingering problem that plagued Tavares during the season, but should not impede his offseason. Tavares will take the cast off next week with plenty of time to spare.
  • The Islanders received official notice from its landlords Brooklyn Sports and Entertainment—who run the Barclays Center—opening the licensing agreement negotiating window. If no deal is reached, either side can choose to maintain the status quo or opt out of the deal. According to Newsday’s Jim Baumbach and Robert Brodsky, who reported the story, the Isles could leave as early as next season, or Barclays could force them out after the 2018-19 season.

Course Adjustment For Colorado

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Colorado needs to determine the road ahead for its franchise. The unexpected plummet to the 4th overall pick in the draft lottery did not help matters, to be sure, but the Avalanche need more than a Nolan Patrick to catapult them back into contention. The team has lacked identity for years and a team philosophy is hard to isolate. The team finished a league worst 22 wins, good for an embarrassingly bad 48 points. They were not expected to be serious cup contenders coming into the year, but this is a team that had veteran scorers and a decent goaltending duo to back up their young forward core. Yet they finished in dead last in both offensive and defensive categories – 1.74 goals for per 60, and 2.93 goals against. With such an incredible disparity it’s actually impressive they won as many contests as they did.

GM Joe Sakic needs to determine which pieces of his core (if any) are worth keeping. It seems probable that the team could consider trading away its captain in Gabriel Landeskog, and the case for doing so is strong. He potted only 18 goals and 15 assists this season, his 5th full campaign – at the exorbitant price of $5.5 MM (which will become $6 MM next season). The center has never developed into the offensive threat the franchise had hoped when he was selected 2nd overall in 2011. His point totals have dropped for the second season in a row. However, his Corsi For % was actually his career best at 52.8, and on a team that bled goals and chances, he performed admirably in his own end. Whether he is worth his deal is certainly a less pressing issue than stopping the bleeding. Unless an over-payment comes along the Avalanche would be wise to stick out at least another season with the still-promising left wing.

Speedy forward Matt Duchene is two years older, and fared only marginally better, with 18 goals and 23 assists. Duchene is not physically imposing a 5’11”, and he is more effective on the rush. His speed and versatility are his greatest assets. Duchene’s skating can burn defenders and his skating is among the tops in the league. When considering that the quick and fleet-footed Nathan MacKinnon is also on the team, it seems that Colorado might want to double down on the speed aspect of their negligible identity. Duchene would almost certainly draw more interest than Landeskog, as the forward did pot 30 goals just the previous season. Although the talk seems distant now, there was considerable conversation following the 2009 draft that the Islanders would have done better to draft Duchene than John Tavares. This is a player who can make a meaningful difference on the playmaking side of things, but saw a drastic drop off in play. Trading Duchene seems the most logical option, but his departure will only leave the center ice position more lackluster.

The Avalanche could toy with moving RFA center Mikhail Grigorenko, or RFA defenseman Patrick Wiercioch, but the returns after last season would be marginal at best. One can only assume that Sakicc attempted to unload forwards like Blake Comeau ($2.5 MM), and now UFA defenseman Fedor Tyutin to no avail. Thankfully the well-worn Jarome Iginla was shipped off to Los Angeles and there are indeed older players coming off the books. The 35 year-old Rene Bourque and 32 year-old John Mitchell will both be UFAs and will have difficulty finding work next season in the league.

Ultimately, the problem for the Avalanche wasn’t that their stars didn’t produce, although that certainly didn’t help their goal totals. Their team was filled with washed-up veterans and outside of the big 3 on offense there was really no threat to score. On the backend, once Erik Johnson went down, the rest of the defense was not nearly good enough to keep up. Tyson Barrie is the only player who should feel remotely safe, and the young RFA Nikita Zadorov is likely to hang around. Francois Beauchemin is not the defender he was even two seasons ago, and if he could somehow be traded it would help performance substantially.

Trading away the #4 selection is usually an unthinkable notion with a team at this stage of a rebuild, but if they can move it for substantial help on defense or on the wing, it should be considered. Especially considering how mediocre this draft class is, it might turn out to be a prudent maneuver. One of Landeskog or Duchene seems likely to depart, but without a king’s ransom coming back, it’s not likely to alter long-term prospects for the franchise. Colorado simply needs to draft better, develop better, and find a coach with the structure that a young, struggling squad will need. If they could make a serious pitch to Karl Alzner this off-season, or perhaps even Thomas Vanek on the wing, they would be in a better position to compete on a nightly basis. Their offensive stars are unlikely to be quite as dreadful in points production yet again. Perhaps the most positive aspect of the upcoming season will be the infusion of youth from the minor leagues, and the ditching of dead weight up and down the lineup. Sakic will need to provide stability for the franchise and perhaps even display some patience rather than dumping a slumping offensive talent for a lackluster package. Although fans may wish for change at any cost, ditching their core players for scraps is not likely the best way forward. Whatever course Colorado decides to take, fans around the league will be watching with interest this summer.

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