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Keeping An Eye On Entry-Level Slides: An Update

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Two weeks ago we ran an article looking at the young players in the NHL who were also eligible to see their contracts slide by one year. Should they be sent back to their junior or European clubs before playing in 10 NHL games, they would avoid burning the first year of their entry-level contracts.

At the time, none of the players eligible had surpassed that threshold. Today is a different story. Three players have already played their 10th game in the NHL, changing the goalposts somewhat for their respective teams. Now, those clubs must decide whether or not to keep them past the next threshold of 40 games, when they’ll get a year closer to unrestricted free agency. Below, we’ll take an updated look at the entire group.

10+ Games Played

Mikhail Sergachev (TBL)
Victor Mete (MTL)
Alex DeBrincat (CHI)

Each of these three seemed to have a good shot at staying with their respective teams right from the start, but now the most interesting thing to watch will be that 40 game mark. For Sergachev especially it holds quite a bit of value. Due to a condition on the trade that brought him to Tampa Bay, if he fails to play 40 games this season the Montreal Canadiens would have to send a second-round draft pick (Montreal would also receive a sixth-round pick in return). That extra asset could be tantalizing for the Lightning, but with Sergachev’s outstanding start—the young defenseman has 10 points in 11 games—it may not be worth sending him away from the team.

8-9 Games Played

Pierre-Luc Dubois (CBJ)
Nico Hischier (NJD)
Jesper Bratt (NJD)
Nolan Patrick (PHI)

All four of these players seem destined to play past the nine game threshold, with Dubois set to play his tenth game tonight, and Patrick only sitting out due to injury this week. Bratt and Hischier have played in all eight of New Jersey’s games, combining for 13 points. Their strong early play will likely keep them in New Jersey for the year.

Interestingly, Dubois has lasted in the Columbus lineup despite registering just one point all season. He’s not being sent back before tonight’s game, but it will be interesting to see how the season plays out. He’s not struggling with the pace of play, but hasn’t received the opportunity to really show what his offensive ceiling is. Should Columbus face more injuries, Dubois could be thrust into a more important role.

5-7 Games Played

Kailer Yamamoto (EDM)

Yamamoto is one of the most interesting cases, because though he’s played seven games with the club and at times been one of the ice-time leaders beside Connor McDavid, he was scratched last night against the Dallas Stars. As Leon Draisaitl and Drake Caggiula came back, there seemingly wasn’t a spot left for Yamamoto in the top nine.

The diminutive forward has three points through his seven contests, but isn’t a lock to stay past nine games if the Oilers feel he still needs some more development. Though he obviously has the skill to play at this level, if they’re not going to play him every night his path may lie back in the WHL. That would certainly change the fate for the Spokane Chiefs, his junior team, who are currently 8-6-1 on the season.

1-4 Games Played

Owen Tippett (FLA)
Janne Kuokkanen (CAR)
Samuel Girard (NSH)

Tippett finally worked his way into the lineup for Florida, and the early results suggest he could stay there all year. The winger from the Mississauga Steelheads scored his first goal last night, and could find himself getting more ice time as the Panthers try to dig their way out of a rough start. By no means is he guaranteed, but the team has hinted that he would stay in the NHL right away since the start of training camp.

Kuokkanen started off hot for the Hurricanes in limited minutes, but has been relegated to the press box for the team’s last five games. As we wrote in the previous article, the Hurricanes could actually send him to the AHL instead of back to junior, meaning he could bounce up and down this season.

Girard has certainly impressed in the three games he’s played, but none of those have come in the team’s last four. He may be back in the lineup tonight however when the team takes on the Chicago Blackhawks, and if he keeps up his high level of play they may have no choice but to keep him around. Still, it’s always tough for a 19-year old defender to stick in the NHL and especially one that is just 162-lbs. He’ll have to show beyond a shadow of a doubt that he’s ready to be a contributor to this team all season.

No Longer On Roster

Logan Brown (OTT)
Filip Chytil (NYR)
Alex Formenton (OTT)
Martin Necas (CAR)

All four made their NHL debuts, but were eventually sent back before breaking the first threshold. Only Chytil remains in the North American professional ranks, currently playing for the Hartford Wolf Pack of the AHL.

Pacific Notes: McDavid, Sutter, Boeser, Kempe

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Edmonton Oilers’ Connor McDavid rejected the idea outright. Without blinking, the young superstar made it very clear that scoring 100 goals is impossible. Just days ago, Jaromir Jagr predicted that McDavid could score 100 goals someday, but McDavid would have none of that., according to Jim Matheson of the Edmonton Journal.

“It’s not possible at all … no one’s ever done it,” said the 20-year-old McDavid, who scored 30 goals a year ago. “Not going to happen.”

The closest anyone has ever come was by Wayne Gretzky, who scored 92 goals in the 1981-82 season. Gretzky also had 87 goals in 1983-84. Alex Ovechkin, who has seven goals in the Capitals first two games might have a better shot at it than McDavid. However, the 32-year-old’s best season was 65 goals in 2007-08.

  • In the same article, Matheson pointed out that McDavid played his first game without taking a faceoff in Saturday’s game against the Vancouver Canucks. The center yielded to linemate Leon Draisaitl, who is a better faceoff specialist, having won 49 percent of his faceoffs (out of 972 attempts) in the 2016-17 season, while McDavid won just 43 percent (806 attempts). “People know that I’m not that good on faceoffs,” McDavid said. “It’s one of the perks of having Leon on the line.”
  • Jason Botchford of the Vancouver Sun writes that a lot of the credit that goes towards the Canucks 3-2 victory Saturday was the play of Brandon Sutter. The 28-year-old center and his line of Markus Granlund and Derek Dorsett shutdown McDavid, who didn’t register a point in the game and finished with a plus/minus of -1 in 24:38 of ice time.
  • In the same article, Botchford writes that the public outcry that top prospect Brock Boeser was scratched due to the team focusing more on shutting down Edmonton’s offense. “I know it’s a hot topic,” Vancouver head coach Travis Green said. “He’s going to play. He’s going to get his chance. We set our lineup against a very strong Edmonton team. He’s not going to sit here for a month.”
  • Curtis Zupke of the Los Angeles Times writes that Los Angeles Kings’ Adrian Kempe’s role on the forward line is already beginning to diminish. The former 2014 first-round pick only played two shifts in the third period for the second straight game and it looks like Alex Iafallo has taken his place on the second line of the power play. Kempe has struggled to break through as a wing on the professional level. He scored 12 goals in 46 games for the Ontario Reign of the AHL last year and scored just two goals for the Kings in 25 games.

 

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Edmonton Oilers

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Navigating the Salary Cap is probably one of the more important tasks for any general manager to have. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2017-18 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Edmonton Oilers

Current Cap Hit: $65,647,000 (under the $75MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

D Matt Benning (One year remaining, $925K)
F Drake Caggiula (One year remaining, $925K)
F Connor McDavid (One year remaining, $925K)
F Jesse Puljujarvi (Two years remaining, $925K)
F Anton Slepyshev (One year remaining, $925K)
F Kailer Yamamoto (Three years remaining, $925K)
D Darnell Nurse (One year remaining, $863K)

Potential Bonuses

McDavid: $2.85MM
Puljujarvi: $2.5MM
Nurse: $850K
Slepyshev: $600K
Caggiula: $425K
Benning: $300K
Yamamoto: $230K

Total: $7.755MM

Believe it or not, McDavid is still on the list as the Art Ross Trophy winner, Hart Memorial Trophy winner, and Ted Lindsay Award winner is on the last year of his entry-level deal. McDavid will also be listed later in the story under four year and more as McDavid signed his eight year, $100MM extension this summer and will be locked up long term regardless. More on him later …

The Oilers have high expectations for both Benning and Nurse to take that next step. With injuries mounting, both should be vaulted into bigger roles than they were last year. The 23-year-old Benning played in 62 games last year and played solidly while filling in for injured players. The 22-year-old Nurse also had a solid showing in 44 games this year. Both may be asked to jump onto top-four pairings on defense throughout the year.

Slepyshev, who suffered an ankle injury in the offseason looks close to being ready. He had 10 points in 41 games a year ago, but also scored three goals in the playoffs for Edmonton last year and many feel the 23-year-old is ready to take that next step. Caggiula, a big college player from the University of North Dakota, had seven goals and 18 points in 60 games a year ago in his first year with Edmonton and is also thought to be a player ready to make a jump.

Both Yamamoto and Puljujarvi (Edmonton’s 2017 and 2016 first-round picks, respectively) went head-to-head and battled it out for a final roster spot this training camp with Yamamoto getting the edge and Puljujarvi getting sent to Bakersfield, but don’t be surprised if Puljujarvi is back up at some point during the season.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

D Mark Fayne ($2.6MM, UFA – team saved $1.025MM in cap relief by sending him to AHL)
F Ryan Strome ($2.5MM, RFA)
F Mark Letestu ($1.8MM, UFA)
F Patrick Maroon ($1.5MM, UFA)
F Jussi Jokinen ($1.1MM, UFA)
G Laurent Brossoit ($750K, RFA)
F Iiro Pakarinen ($725K, RFA)

Connor McDavidPerhaps the most interesting player the team must focus on will be Maroon, who had a breakout year playing next to McDavid. The 29-year-old wing scored 27 goals and has proven to be one guy who seems to play well next to McDavid. He is a presence in front of the net and a physical force for the team.

Letestu, is another player the team will have to consider. Likely to be the team’s fourth-line center, Letestu put up 16 goals last year, although that was a career high and he’s already 32 years old. Jokinen, who signed a one-year deal this offseason, put up 11 goals last year in Florida, but at 34 years old is likely not a priority to the team.

As for restricted free agents, the team will take a long look at Strome, who the team acquired in the Jordan Eberle deal. The 24-year-old center has had an inconsistent career with the New York Islanders, but put up 13 goals and 30 points last year. The Oilers hope he can keep improving on those numbers. Brossoit will get his first chance to be Talbot’s backup. The 24-year-old looked promising in eight appearances last year.

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Snapshots: McDavid, Polak, Dotchin

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Connor McDavid has taken over the top spot on TSN’s yearly player rankings, after an incredible eight-year run by Sidney Crosby. McDavid still only edged the former #1 for the top spot, but will try to start a run of his own this year. Several other players made huge jumps, including Nikita Kucherov who jumped from 27 to 7, and Mark Scheifele who improved 35 spots to crack the top 15.

Two top-10 stalwarts in Alex Ovechkin and Jonathan Toews both plummeted down the rankings after disappointing seasons, but could easily see a resurgence should they should it was more an anomaly than a trend. Check out the entire list, then leave below what you think should have been different.

  • Roman Polak won’t play tomorrow night for the Toronto Maple Leafs, but according to head coach Mike Babcock (via James Mirtle of The Athletic) he’s making progress and should still get in before the season begins. Polak is technically on a professional tryout with the team, but it does seem like he would be signed by the team should he show that he’s completely healthy after the terrible injury last year. The Maple Leafs already have several players competing for the last few defensive spots, but none of them save for Connor Carrick are right-handed. Since the Maple Leafs are already going with three lefties in their top-4, having a right-handed option like Polak in a depth role seems prudent, even if he’s not an exciting option.
  • Jake Dotchin still hasn’t gotten into any preseason action for violating a team issue, and he told Joe Smith of the Tampa Bay Times that “it’s hurting” him. Dotchin was widely expected to start the year in an increased role with the Lightning after an impressive rookie campaign, but every day he sits out is another chance for someone else to make an impression. The young defender has been known to cross the line physically while on the ice, and though there is no report on what he did yet the team is clearly not happy with him.

Afternoon Notes: McDavid, Draisaitl, Letang

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The Edmonton Oilers will continue to try to experiment with the lines and their two stars in Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, who have previously played together. However, many feel that the two young stars should be separated with the idea of eventually having two elite lines instead of the one. McDavid, who put up 100 points (including 70 assists) last year, should still be able to produce big numbers without Draisaitl, who has been playing wing up until now. Even as a wing, Draisaitl put up 48 assists of his own. But who could take the place of Draisaitl on that number one line? McDavid and Patrick Maroon have several options, according to The Athletic’s Allan Mitchell.

The scribe writes (subscription required) that there are a number of candidates that could fill that role and many questions will obviously be answered in training camp. Regardless, he lists Drake Caggiula as the top candidate for that first line. The 23-year-old forward is coming off his rookie year in which he played 60 games, scoring seven goals and 18 points on the season. However, Mitchell writes that Caggiula and McDavid had some chemistry in the time they played together and might be the best fit. He adds that Caggiula struggled through injuries early in his rookie year and the real player may not have been evident until late in the year. It’s true, he did put up three goals in 13 playoff games for Edmonton, so the former University of North Dakota star might surprise many this coming year if he gets the job.

While Mitchell lists eight candidates, it’s quite obvious that Edmonton is as clueless as anyone so far about what will happen. One of those eight candidates is Draisaitl himself, who Mitchell believes will be thrown back onto that first line the moment that McDavid’s line struggles. This may not be the year for Edmonton to make this change. One sleeper that should be considered is the team’s top pick in this year’s draft, Kailer Yamamoto. The 22nd overall pick in the draft is considered to be a high volume shooter, and his speed and talent may work perfectly with McDavid, but at 18 years of age, 5-foot-8 and 153 pounds, the youngster might need another year of development before leaping onto the Oilers’ number one line.

  • Pittsburgh Penguins coach Mike Sullivan said that he did not ask defenseman Kris Letang to change to a more conservative style of hockey, writes Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Sullivan says that he asked him to use better judgement while playing. Letang has missed a lot of time over his career due to his often reckless play and managed to only play in 41 games last year when he needed surgery on his neck and missed the team’s championship run in the playoffs. “There might be an assumption that we’re trying to change the way “Tanger” plays the game. That’s not what the message has been to Kris,” Sullivan said. “It’s been more about making more calculated decisions on when there simply isn’t a play to be made.”

Snapshots: Demers, Upshall, McDavid

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Various players were in Toronto today for the BioSteel Camp, which gave savvy media members a chance to talk to them individually and away from the normal post-game scrum. One of them, Luke Fox of Sportsnet, caught up with Florida Panthers defenseman Jason Demers and asked about the report from earlier this summer that he blocked a trade to the Vancouver Canucks. Demers definitely didn’t deny the report, saying that Pierre LeBrun of TSN has “got his sources.”

Regardless, Demers is still playing in Florida this season and is getting ready to try and bounce back from what was a disappointing year. The right-handed defenseman was one of the best two-way options on the open market in 2016 when the Panthers snatched him up for five years and $22.5MM but scored just 28 points and wasn’t as effective in his own end. It will be interesting to see if he becomes available once again if the Panthers get off to a bad start, or if the right deal comes along to pry him out of Florida. His no-trade clause covers just eight teams around the league.

  • Scottie Upshall is waiting for another NHL opportunity after scoring 18 points last season for the St. Louis Blues, and he told John Matisz of Postmedia that he already has offers from the KHL and Europe in hand. Upshall, like James Wisniewski earlier today, still believes he can help an NHL team, but is also excited about the possibility of playing in the Olympics should he be playing in a European league come February. Upshall never did reach the high potential he showed to be selected sixth overall, but has been a solid contributor and fan favorite for nearly 700 games. Only 33-years old, he could be in for a professional tryout like in 2015 when he ended up signing with the Blues on October 5th.
  • Of course, no media day would be complete without talking to the reigning league MVP Connor McDavid, and Kristen Shilton of TSN asked him several questions at the BioSteel camp. When asked about being called the best player in the league, McDavid immediately deflected the praise to Sidney Crosby, saying that “at the end of the day everyone knows who the best player in the league is, and it’s not me.” Many fans would disagree with that, but McDavid went on to say that he wants to work on the things that make Crosby so dangerous, namely scoring from in tight and on deflections. Edmonton Oilers fans will be happy to hear that the $100MM contract he signed hasn’t made McDavid rest on his laurels, and that he’s working to come back even stronger next season.

Nugent-Hopkins Watch Might Start Early

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With the recent signings of Leon Draisaitl ($8.5 MM AAV), and Connor McDavid ($12.5 MM), there are those around the league who are anxious to see how GM Peter Chiarelli will deal with the inevitable cap crunch on the horizon. David Staples of the Edmonton Journal contends that the possibility of Ryan Nugent-Hopkins being moved in the short-term is overblown. That said, it stands to reason that Nugent-Hopkins will be a focus of trade speculation for a long while. Milan Lucic is the only other forward with as heavy a cap hit, also at $6 MM AAV, but he has a no-movement clause to accompany his deal. If money is moving out, Nugent-Hopkins could be the man in the cross-hairs.

Staples provides a useful breakdown of salary for the next three seasons, and shows how minimal that cap crunch might end up being. Still, it’s expected that Edmonton will attempt to build on its successful season and attempt to compete this year. If they want to add this season, they can certainly do so at the deadline. With their current $8.33 MM in space they’ll have over $30 MM in deadline space, so it seems reasonable to anticipate short-term buys. That said, any additions will complicate the cap picture in 2018-19.  They’ve already moved multiple pieces who initially had great value, notably Taylor Hall, Nail Yakupov, and Justin Schultz, and received little in return, with the exception of Adam Larsson (for Hall). It seems unlikely that Chiarelli would risk having another top pick and valuable asset thrive elsewhere just in the name of saving a few dollars.

The trade of Jordan Eberle certainly alleviated some of the pressure that Nugent-Hopkins is bound to face, but that may only be temporary. His 18 goals and 25 assists in a full season are a sharp decline from even his rookie totals. For Nugent-Hopkins to cement his place on a team with two momentous contracts, his production will need to improve dramatically. He’ll certainly see more scrutiny this campaign if he struggles for long stretches, as the concern over money will only make fans and reporters more critical. If the 24 year-old were to be traded, it would most certainly be next summer, when the crunch really starts to surface as McDavid’s hit kicks in. Even after another season under 50 points, Nugent-Hopkins would likely bring in a sizable haul via trade, which might fill out the rest of the forward corps at a cheaper price in Edmonton. Thankfully for the Oil, the organization has multiple players who can slot in at center if necessary – Draisaitl, Mark Letestu, Jussi Jokinen, and Ryan Strome all have experience up the middle and could slot in after McDavid. Nugent-Hopkins will have to stand well above his competition at camp and throughout the year to prove his long-term value to the organization. If it’s another season of being outclassed by the likes of Letestu, he could find himself in the midst of intense speculation.

Morning Notes: Matthews, Boqvist, Vancouver

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While the Edmonton Oilers lock up Connor McDavid and the Buffalo Sabres prepare an extension for Jack Eichel, the Toronto Maple Leafs have their own young phenom to start worrying about. Auston Matthews will be eligible for an extension on July 1st 2018, and James Mirtle of The Athletic was on TSN Radio this morning to discuss the general parameters.

Mirtle disagreed with the idea that players are upset at McDavid for taking less than the maximum, but did admit that it will set a sort of ceiling on any contract coming out of an entry-level deal. He suspects Matthews will earn around $11MM per season on his eventual deal. While the Maple Leafs are currently playing games with long-term injured reserve just to stay under the cap, they’ll have plenty of room by 2019 when Matthews (and Mitch Marner) are due for huge raises. The team has just six active skaters signed for that year, and could easily have some prospects still working through their ELC to help balance the check book.

  • Grant McCagg of Recrutes.ca released his latest “Grant’s Slant” piece today, discussing the emerging draft stock of Adam Boqvist and how he could challenge Rasmus Dahlin as the top option out of Sweden next year. Boqvist played extremely well at the Ivan Hlinka tournament and McCagg points at recent examples—Oliver Kylington and Timothy Liljegren in particular—of Swedish defenders falling rapidly in their draft year. It doesn’t look like Dahlin will give up his spot at the top of most draft boards next spring, but it would be silly to sleep on Boqvist who will be a top prospect in his own right.
  • Rick Dhaliwal of News 1130 in Vancouver has been all over the Alex Kerfoot situation, and now reports that the NCAA free agent will visit the Canucks today. That will be his first visit, but it won’t be his only one as “several teams” have been in contact with his camp. The former Harvard captain did not sign with the New Jersey Devils before the deadline, and has been linked to his hometown Canucks for some time. The undersized forward has a nice skill set but like many other college free agents could have limited upside in the long-term.

Boston Bruins Don’t Want Pastrnak’s Deal To Surpass Marchand

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At this point in the offseason, there are often teams that still have unsigned restricted free agents and there are quite a few names still remaining, including Edmonton’s Leon Draisaitl, Columbus’ Alexander Wennberg, Vancouver’s Bo Horvat and Boston’s David Pastrnak. However, Joe Haggerty of CSNNE suggests one hold up to a deal is the team doesn’t want to give Pastrnak a deal that is bigger than their star veteran, Brad Marchand.

The 29-year-old wing, who signed an eight-year, $49MM ($6.125MM AAV) extension less than a year ago, is coming off a 40-goal season (if you include the playoffs) and his extension suddenly looks like a bargain. However, the team would like Marchand, who is the team’s leader and core franchise player, to be the top-paid player and not be overshadowed by a younger player. According to Haggerty, the team was working with Pastrnak to come in at a deal that was slighty below that of Marchand, but those talks have been put on hold.

While Marchand put up 39 goals and 46 assists for 85 points, Pastrnak had a breakout season himself. After putting up 25 goals in his first two seasons in Boston, the scored 34 goals and added 36 assists for 70 points. He is one of just 26 players to have reached the 30-goal plateau last year.

What is likely to work in Pastrnak’s favor is that Connor McDavid’s extension may have changed the landscape for top, young forwards and suddenly Pastrnak may wait until McDavid’s teammate, Draisaitl signs an extension. Many believe that contract will be significant and Pastrnak will want the same deal. Of course, Draisaitl may also be waiting for Pastrnak to sign as well, so it might take a while. Many believe, however, that Draisaitl may agree to a contract in the $7-8MM range, therefore altering Pastrnak’s demands as well.

Pastrnak, meanwhile, states that he is practicing hard and is not worried about signing an extension, according to Tim Campbell of NHL.com.

“I’m just waiting, leaving it all to my agent [J.P. Barry] to communicate with them,” Pastrnak said during the European Player Media Tour on Thursday. “I’m just focusing on getting ready for next season. I’m focusing on getting better and I’m trying not to think about that stuff. I just let it go and something will happen.”

NHL Snapshots: Toews, Red Wings Logo, Klingberg

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Chicago Blackhawks star forward Jonathan Toews spent all of last offseason training harder than he ever had and while the 29-year-old had a solid season, his numbers dropped, particularly his goal-scoring as his 21 goals last year were the lowest number of his career. According to Sportsnet’s Chris Johnston, Toews admitted that over-training might have been a mistake and is looking to make changes to his offseason work habits.

“Last summer is the first time I really got the time to train really hard and I might have overdone it in the wrong way. Just worrying about power and strength all the time,” Toews said. “I came into the season and just couldn’t move, just felt slow. I mean the game is so fast nowadays. It’s kind of a wake-up call in that sense.”

Toews said that he has been focusing on loosening up his body and improving his mobility. He adds that he is taking ideas from some of the young stars like Toronto’s Auston Matthews and Edmonton’s Connor McDavid and intends to devote time to skating and working on his offensive game.

  • The Detroit Red Wings and the NHL are considering legal action after white nationalists used an altered form of the Red Wings logo during the “Unite the Right” rally in Charlottesville, Va. this weekend. The Red Wings tweeted that they vehemently disagree and are not associated with the event and will explore any legal action possible.
  • Sportsnet’s Sonny Sachdeva writes that Dallas Stars defenseman John Klingberg says that he is looking forward to working with new coach Ken Hitchcock this year in hopes that the veteran coach can emphasize defense more in hopes of bringing the Stars back to the playoffs. The 24-year-old blueliner has been one of the team’s brightest offensive stars, putting up a career-high 13 goals last year to go with 36 assists for 49 points. Klingberg who led the team in average ice-time (23:21) last season would embrace a coach that emphasized defense. The Stars went from winning the Central Division in 2015-16 to a sixth-place finish last year.

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