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Ryan Shea Not Expected To Sign With Blackhawks

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Soon after a report surfaced that Luke Martin was unlikely to sign with the Carolina Hurricanes, news that another top collegiate defenseman will test free agency has popped up. According to Rinkside Rhode Islander reporter Mark Divver, Ryan Shea will not sign with the Chicago Blackhawks and instead will become an unrestricted free agent later this summer. Shea recently completed his senior season at Northeastern University, where he served as captain.

Unlike Martin, whose game almost entirely revolves around his defensive play, Shea has blossomed offensively over the years at Northeastern and recorded 31 points in 34 games this season. The left-handed defenseman was a fourth-round pick of the Blackhawks back in 2015 but played a year in the USHL before heading to college. He can become an unrestricted free agent after August 15th—though that date may change depending on how the league ends up scheduling the coronavirus-delayed offseason.

Chicago announced four signings earlier today, including Evan Barratt, one of their more highly-touted college prospects, but Shea shouldn’t be completely overlooked. The 23-year old has improved his skating and defensive play every year and was relied on in all situations by the Huskies.

Earlier this year, Scott Powers of The Athletic (subscription required) spoke to Shea and asked him if he felt any loyalty to the Blackhawks organization. At that point, the young defenseman told Powers that his relationship with Blackhawks director of player development Mark Eaton was “very strong” and that Chicago felt like the right spot by “all indications.” Obviously, things haven’t gone exactly according to that plan.

Luke Martin Not Expected To Sign With Hurricanes

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Every summer, some of the college players that were drafted several years ago end up becoming unrestricted free agents. They have spent four years in their NCAA program and only have to wait a few months to earn the right to sign with whichever team they want. While the day that draft rights expire is usually in the middle of August, it’s not clear how that will work this year thanks to the current pause.

Still, news is bound to start coming out about which prospects intend to test free agency. Luke Martin appears to be one of those players, as Andy Strickland of Fox Sports Midwest reports that the University of Michigan defenseman is not expected to sign with the Carolina Hurricanes.

Martin, 21, was the 52nd overall pick in 2017—slightly higher than his ranking on several lists before the draft. He ended up ranked 61st among North American skaters by NHL Central Scouting, but the Hurricanes clearly liked what they had seen in his first year of college hockey. Martin had previously been a member of the national team development program and had registered seven points in 35 games as a freshman with the Wolverines.

The 6’2″ defenseman never really has taken a step forward offensively. His junior season resulted in just nine points in 36 games, but he has logged big minutes against top opponents since his freshman season and could be an interesting depth addition for an NHL organization later this year.

Toronto Maple Leafs Sign Filip Kral, Kristians Rubins

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The Toronto Maple Leafs have completed some paperwork today, signing two young prospects. Filip Kral has signed a three-year entry-level contract, while Kristians Rubins has signed a two-year entry-level contract. Kral had been playing with the Spokane Chiefs of the WHL when the season was canceled, while Rubins has been part of the Toronto organization for the past two seasons playing on a minor league deal.

Kral, 20, was selected 149th overall by the Maple Leafs in 2018, after his first season in the WHL. The Czech defenseman had just recorded 35 points in 54 games as a rookie but had also represented his country many times on the international stage. Kral was part of the Czech Republic team that took home gold at the 2016 Hlinka-Gretzky tournament—a first for the country—and attended the World Juniors in both 2018 and 2019. This year, the savvy defenseman scored 49 points in 53 games and continued to show off his quick-thinking, deceptive game. Though not exceptionally talented in any one area, Kral seems to often be ahead of his opponents through sheer hockey awareness.

Rubins meanwhile is a much different story. The 22-year old Latvian defenseman went undrafted out of the WHL but is another example of the Maple Leafs deep player development program. He originally signed an ECHL contract with the Newfoundland Growlers, only to earn an AHL deal this season with the Marlies. After impressing in 47 AHL games this year, he’s now the proud owner of an NHL contract and a shot to continue climbing the Toronto organization.

With a Kelly Cup championship in his back pocket along with experience at the IIHF World Championship playing against NHL competition, Rubins will try to continue his development path all the way to the top. A left-handed defenseman that stands 6’4″ 220-lbs he may not look like many other Toronto defenders—which perhaps will give him a leg up on the competition.

PHR Panel: Franchise Building Blocks

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We’re now several weeks into an NHL postponement and there is still no clear timeline on when professional hockey will return. While fans of the sport have received small tidbits of news over that time, including college signings and contract extensions, the thirst for discussion has rarely been quenched.

With that in mind, we’re happy to introduce a new feature: The PHR Panel. Three times a week, our writing staff will give our individual takes on a question many hockey fans have been wondering about. If you’d ever like to submit a subject for us to discuss, be sure to put it in the comments. This series will run each Monday, Wednesday and Friday.

Last week we touched on potential playoff formats the league could use if the season resumes later this summer, and took a look at how the shortened scouting period affects draft prospects.

Today, we’ll each give our thoughts on who we would want to build a franchise around.

Q: If you had to build a team around one player drafted in the past three years, who would it be?

Brian La Rose:

It’s the age-old debate of what’s more valuable—the number one center or the number one defenseman.  Two players from the 2017 draft immediately jump to mind in Colorado’s Cale Makar and Vancouver’s Elias Pettersson.

In Makar, Colorado has a dynamic offensive threat from the back end and considering he has just one full season under his belt, it’s certainly reasonable to expect that he will improve considerably from where he is now.

Meanwhile, Pettersson has immediately stepped into a key role in Vancouver and this season, he proved that his rookie campaign was no fluke.  He has shown that he can handle the rigors of playing down the middle without too much difficulty.

Makar is going to be an elite offensive weapon in the NHL.  He basically already is.  But I’m not sure his defensive game gets quite to that level.  Meanwhile, Pettersson has made some strides defensively and has the potential to be that all situations type of player.

If I’m a GM building a team around one of the two, I’d take Pettersson as a result.  There are no limitations with him—he should soon be a point-per-game player or better and number one centers are extremely hard to acquire outside of the draft.  Makar is an electric player already with room to get even better but will his defensive play improve to where he can be that all situations player?  I’m not as certain about that so I’ll take the safer play with Pettersson.

Holger Stolzenberg: 

There are a number of impressive prospects who have made quite an impact early in their careers and while I could easily go with a defenseman like Makar or Quinn Hughes as the anchor to my team’s defense and quarterback of my power play, I am still of the belief that if possible, it’s always better to build around your centers, just like the New Jersey Devils have done over the past three years, picking up both Nico Hischier and Jack Hughes.

Looking at all the top centers drafted over the past three years, I’m inclined to pick the Canucks’ Pettersson as the player that I would build around. Pettersson spent his first season in the SHL where he broke numerous rookie records and was often compared to the great Sedin twins. He came to North America and had an impressive rookie season in 2018-19 in which he posted 28 goals and 66 points. He matched that production again this year with a 27-goal, 66-point campaign in 68 games, while avoiding a major injury.

The skilled forward has taken the Canucks to a whole new level of play this season and had them in the middle of a playoff race before the shutdown. Pettersson still has plenty of room to take his game up a level or two and in my opinion, makes the most sense to build a team around.

Zach Leach:

I am a firm believer in building a team around the literal centerpiece of your lineup: a top line center. Look back through the annals of NHL history and you will be hard-pressed to find a Stanley Cup winner that didn’t have an elite center on their first line and usually a top option on their second line as well. A top contender is built down the middle.

The problem with this premise and the past three draft classes is that too few centers have yet to establish themselves as “elite” in the NHL. The jury is still out on 2019 No. 1 pick Jack Hughes, who disappointed as a first-year pro, and New Jersey Devils teammate Nico Hischier is a solid two-way player, but to this point has shown limited star power. Carolina’s Martin Necas, Vegas’ Cody Glass, and Chicago’s Kirby Dach are among a large group who simply have too small of an NHL sample size as well.

Vancouver’s Elias Pettersson is the only player who might fit the bill. The reigning Calder Trophy winner has posted 66+ points in back-to-back seasons to begin his NHL career and has shown strong offensive instincts and a sniper’s touch. However, it remains to be seen whether he will actually continue to line up at center for the Canucks, who have used him on the wing more often than not this season. The winger role would seem to align better with his style and tendencies, but does bring down his value somewhat. Petterson is a hard player to pass up, but I’m not entirely sold that he can be a team’s best player.

So if not Pettersson, then who? If not a center, then what position? A superstar defenseman is another highly valuable asset and there are at least four who fit the mold among the past three classes: Buffalo’s Rasmus Dahlin, Dallas’ Miro Heiskanen, Vancouver’s Quinn Hughes, and Colorado’s Cale Makar. While all project to be elite, top-pair defensemen, only one to me is destined to be a perennial Norris Trophy candidate.

Makar is my choice as the best available player to build around. Between his collegiate career, taking UMass from an unknown to the National Championship game, to his NHL start, a strong playoff debut followed by what could very likely be a Calder-caliber rookie season, Makar has left few questions unanswered. A generational puck-mover who already skates and sees the ice as well as anyone, Makar is also not afraid to throw his weight around and shows good defensive awareness and the speed to make up for any mistakes. Perhaps most importantly, Makar has already shown some prize intangibles in college and the pros, including leadership ability and the ability to excel under pressure. Even on a loaded Avalanche roster, it is not hard to see a day when Makar could be the team’s very best player, as he could for most NHL clubs.

Gavin Lee:

In a year’s time you may be talking about Jack Hughes, Kaapo Kakko or Kirby Dach as potential options here, but there just hasn’t been enough time for any of them to prove they can be franchise-altering talents. That’s the kind of thing they’re going up against when you look back at the 2017 and 2018 drafts, which provided a huge number of potential league superstars.

It’s hard to argue with the selection of Pettersson, who looks like he’ll be a first-line center for years to come in Vancouver. Hughes, his teammate, would also be an outstanding pick and gives the Canucks a dynamic duo that will make opponents regret taking any penalties over the next decade. Either one would be a great building block for your franchise, just as players like Rasmus Dahlin, Andrei Svechnikov, Miro Heiskanen or even Hischier—who is routinely overlooked when discussing up-and-coming talents—would be.

But my choice lies in Colorado, where Makar has quickly taken over as the second-best player on a team already loaded with other top talents. It’s easy to forget that just three years ago the toughest competition Makar had faced was in the AJHL, and now he’s making NHL opponents look silly on a regular basis. The 21-year old simply doesn’t have an offensive ceiling and could well be competing for the Norris Trophy instead of the Calder in a year’s time.

Perunovich Contract Likely To Open Up Deals For Other Top Collegiates

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While many undrafted college players have already signed in the last couple of weeks, only a handful of top collegiate players have inked new deals. One of the reasons is due to questions surrounding whether players could sign contracts for this year, since it the rest of the season remains in limbo. However, with the recent signing of defenseman Scott Perunovich with the St. Louis Blues to two different contracts, that could open up a flood of players who are ready to sign contacts, according to Scott Powers of The Athletic (subscription required).

Perunovich agreed to two contracts Friday, one that would start this year (assuming the season continues), while the other would start in the 2019-20 season, although both contracts would be two-year deals. The scribe notes that St. Louis had to get NHL approval of the two contracts, which now could open up possibilities for several college players, including Chicago Blackhawks’ Ian Mitchell, Vegas Golden Knights’ Jack Dugan and Winnipeg Jets’ Dylan Samberg.

Powers uses the example of Mitchell, who wrapped up his junior season at the University of Denver and has to sign a three-year, entry-level contract due to his age. Mitchell would prefer to sign starting this season as it would immediately burn that first year.

“Right now we are waiting to see what happens with the NHL season,” the 21-year-old Mitchell wrote. “There is a freeze on contracts being signed for this season. If I were to sign a contract now, I wouldn’t be able to play this year if the season resumes. So right now it is just wait and see.”

Technically, Perunovich has not signed either contact, but will sign one of the two once it’s decided on whether the 2019-20 season will continue or not. That could be the case for any other college prospects who are eager to sign, but would prefer to sign for this year and not wait an extra year.

Mitchell continues to wait on whether there is a season this year, but is suddenly more open to signing soon after Perunovich’s deal.

“Yes, all options are on the table,” said Mitchell in a text when asked about signing a similar deal.

Powers believes that the contract itself has already been worked out, especially since Chicago has been willing to hand out “A” bonuses to their top prospects in the past and with Mitchell having the ability to threaten to return to Denver for his senior year, he is likely to get that, although it’s believed that he is leaning towards signing a pro contract.

Edmonton Oilers Tell Philip Broberg To Remain In Sweden Next Year

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The Edmonton Oilers have informed prospect Philip Broberg that they would prefer him to remain in Sweden for another year, rather than have him come to North America and play in the AHL, according to Postmedia’s Jim Matheson. Broberg, the team’s eighth-overall pick in the 2019 NHL draft, did play a full season with the SHL last season as an 18-year-old, but did not show the offense the Oilers were hoping for in his first pro season.

The Oilers were quite enamored by Broberg’s 6-foot-3, 203-pound frame as well as his fast and impressive skating, when they shocked a few by taking him with the eighth-overall pick, but general manager Ken Holland has preached speed when drafting and signing players since he took over last year. Broberg is an example of that. He has averaged 14 minutes a game in his first season in the SHL, but has received little to no power play minutes. He finished his season with one goal and eight points in 45 games for Skelleftea. The hope is that soon-to-be 19-year-old will accrue more minutes in the SHL and have a chance to develop his offensive skills. He did score one goal at the World Juniors in December, but also was asked to take a lesser role and focus on defense for Sweden.

The Oilers have several defensive prospects, so the team likely could hold on for another year without Broberg in the immediate system. The team is likely going to give every chance first to their No. 1 prospect, Evan Bouchard, who has fared quite well in Bakersfield of the AHL this past year, and likely will be given a shot at winning an job with the Oilers next season. The team also has Dmitri Samorukov, who played a secondary role with Bakersfield this year and might now get a chance to take on a bigger role next season.

Prospect Notes: Rasanen, Niemelainen, Berglund, Farrance, Harris

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There have been many international prospects over the years that have turned to the NCAA to try to help get ready for the NHL or bolster their chances of getting drafted.  There aren’t as many that have gone the other way but it appears that’s the case with Oilers prospect Aapeli Rasanen.  The 21-year-old recently wrapped up his junior year at Boston College but Jeff Cox of the New England Hockey Journal reports (Twitter link) that the forward has informed the team that he’s leaving and is returning to Finland to play professionally.  Rasanen grew up playing in the Tappara so it’s likely that he would rejoin that program.

  • Still with the Oilers, Sportsnet’s Mark Spector notes that Edmonton is hoping to sign defensemen Markus Niemelainen and Filip Berglund. Both players were draft picks in 2016 and have until June 1st to sign their entry-level deals.  Niemelainen played in 55 games with Assat Pori of the Finnish SM-liiga this season while Berglund suited up in 52 contests with SHL Skelleftea, his fourth straight year of being a regular in that league.  They’re also both under contract for next season already (Berglund for two more years) but both countries have a transfer agreement with the NHL so those deals shouldn’t get in the way.
  • Predators prospect David Farrance is coming off a very strong junior year with Boston University that saw him collect 14 goals and 29 assists in just 34 games. While it certainly seems as if he’s ready to turn pro, AHL reporter Mark Divver mentions (Twitter link) that the 20-year-old hasn’t yet decided whether or not to return for his senior season.  With Nashville’s back end being filled with low salary players, it’s quite possible that Farrance could immediately make the jump to the NHL like Dante Fabbro (a Boston University alum) recently did.
  • Canadiens prospect Jordan Harris has given a verbal commitment to return to Northeastern for his junior year, reports Sportsnet’s Eric Engels (Twitter link). Last month, GM Marc Bergevin mentioned the possibility that Harris could forego the rest of his college eligibility and turn pro but that doesn’t appear to be the plan.  Harris had 21 points in 33 games this season while chipping in with a goal in five games for Team USA at the World Juniors.

Philadelphia Flyers Sign Wade Allison

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The Philadelphia Flyers won’t be losing one of their draft prospects after all. Wade Allison has signed an entry-level contract with the team following his senior season at Western Michigan University. Allison could have become an unrestricted free agent had he waited until August (under normal league circumstances at least), but will instead start his professional career with the team that drafted him.

CapFriendly reports that the deal breaks down as follows:

2020-21: $925K salary (including signing bonus)
2021-22: $925K salary (including signing bonus), $425K in performance bonuses

Now 22, Allison is a tall, powerful winger that recorded 23 points in 26 games for the Broncos this season, serving as an alternate captain for the second year. His college career ended with 97 points in 106 games, but it’s his strong return from injury that should excite fans who were worried about his long-term career path.

In January of 2018, Allison tore his ACL. He had been on track to contend for the Hobey Baker as a sophomore with 15 goals and 30 points in his first 22 games, but that was likely the last thing on his mind at the time. How would he look when he came back, would his NHL future be in jeopardy?

More than two years later and Allison has finally signed that NHL contract and is on his way to joining the organization that used the 52nd overall pick on him back in 2016. Flyers’ AGM Brent Flahr described his newest prospect as “a great package of size, speed and skill” while suggesting that he can be a power forward at the NHL level.

PHR Panel: Draft Prospect Impact

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We’re now two weeks into an NHL postponement and there is still no clear timeline on when professional hockey will return. While fans of the sport have received small tidbits of news over that time, including college signings and contract extensions, the thirst for discussion has rarely been quenched.

With that in mind, we’re happy to introduce a new feature: The PHR Panel. Three times a week, our writing staff will give our individual takes on a question many hockey fans have been wondering about. If you’d ever like to submit a subject for us to discuss, be sure to put it in the comments. This series will run each Monday, Wednesday and Friday.

Earlier this week we gave our thoughts on potential playoff formats the league could use coming out of the pause. Today, we’ll talk about how draft prospects are impacted by the sudden conclusion of their junior and college seasons.

Q: Which kind of draft prospect is impacted the most by the shortened scouting season—high-, mid- or late-round?

Brian La Rose:

By now, teams have a pretty good idea of the players that are going to be at or near the top of their draft lists.  There could be some movement up or down but most players ranked in the first round on a list at this point are still probably going to be ranked in the first round when final lists are set.

The stretch run and playoffs can certainly help a mid-ranked player move up (or down) but it shouldn’t affect their stock in terms of being drafted.  It would take a significant injury or a dreadful late performance to knock a player from being ranked mid-round midseason to the do not draft list.

That can’t be said for the late-round prospects.  Oftentimes, a big showing in the playoffs or the Under-18’s can make that lasting impression that gets them onto the late flier list.  Conversely, the lower-ranked player that played well at the start of the season but struggles in such an event can fall off the list entirely.  The movement in the rankings is much more drastic.

There is a considerable gap between first-rounders and those taken after.  There is a small difference between second and third-rounders relative to those who go later.  But once you hit the back end of the draft, the gap is minimal and it doesn’t take much to rise or fall in those rankings.  That’s why they’re the most impacted by the early ends to their respective seasons.

Holger Stolzenberg:

For the most part, high-round picks have already been established. Teams and scouts are already well aware of the top-caliber players and where they will go in the first couple of rounds. While there is always some shuffling up and down those first few rounds, most of those players have been scouted quite a bit (perhaps minus a handful of Russian prospects, but isn’t that always the case?)

It’s the later picks that are likely to be affected the most. With no playoffs coming at the junior and collegiate levels as well as overseas, many of those often-missed prospects won’t get a chance to shine at the final level and show that they should be taken earlier. Plenty of prospects establish themselves near the end of the season as they develop in their own team’s systems or get to step up and prove themselves when injuries creep up. These late-season tournaments as well as the IIHF canceling the IIHF U18 World Championships will eliminate key scouting opportunities that will have a major effect on the mid to late rounds.

Zach Leach:

Unlike the other top pro sports leagues, the NHL is unique in that all rookie contracts are more or less created equal. The entry-level system creates a narrow salary window in which each draft pick is able to negotiate his contract, while also allowing time before signing to create leverage for a greater base salary or performance bonuses within that range, as opposed to negotiating based solely on draft position.

This is all to say that the most important thing for an NHL prospect is just getting drafted, not where you are drafted. For this reason, the “late-round” prospects are absolutely the group most impacted by the Coronavirus-shortened season, as they are not locked in to be selected at all. Top prospects who can safely assume that they will be picked in the first four or five rounds have that security because there is a consensus that they are a strong NHL prospect. That consensus can only be built by multiple viewings by multiple scouts over the course of the season. A shortened season still leaves most teams with more than enough information to make a decision on those top- and middle-tier prospects. Those late-round prospects often do not have the luxury of multiple viewings by scouts. High school, prep school, Junior-A and European junior league games do not offer the same value to scouts as attending CHL, USHL, or European pro games, where there are multiple draft prospects to watch. As such, postseason play and other spring tournaments offer the best opportunities for scouts and the best chance for a late-round prospect to be seen and make an impact on a team, improving his draft odds. Many of those players will not get that opportunity this year and some lower-caliber players from bigger leagues may get the nod based on teams’ number of viewings alone.

Once a player is passed over in their first year of eligibility, earning a selection only gets tougher. So it is those fringe, late-round prospects who may have lost their chance to impress the maximum number of teams possible who will be most affected by the shortened recruiting season.

Gavin Lee:

There’s no doubt that the players at the fringe of any ranking may end up missing a chance to impress an NHL team enough to earn a selection, but I would argue that it doesn’t really change their situation all that much by going undrafted. Every year teams decide not to hand out NHL contracts to their sixth- and seventh-round picks from prior drafts, letting them become free agents or bringing them in on minor league deals instead. The situation for a seventh-round pick isn’t all that fundamentally different from one that slips by—they’re still going to have to put in a lot of hard work to prove they are worthy of an NHL contract slot.

No, I believe it is actually those first-round talents that could be affected the most, in both positive and negative manners.

Last year, just a few weeks before the draft, Peyton Krebs suffered a torn Achilles in an offseason workout. Krebs had been in line for a potential top-10 selection, ranked that high by several outlets including by TSN’s Bob McKenzie, who polls NHL scouts from around the league. Instead, after his injury, Krebs dropped to the Vegas Golden Knights at 17th. If you compare his entry-level deal to that of, say, Victor Soderstrom, who went 11th, you’ll notice that Krebs has a substantially lower number of available performance bonuses—some $750K over the three years.

For an example the other way, one can point at Mortiz Seider’s performance for Germany at the IIHF World Championship in May of 2019 as a potential reason why he ended up being the sixth player off the board in June. NHL.com correspondent Aaron Vickers wrote exactly that last year when he spoke to players like Leon Draisaitl who was so impressed with the 18-year old’s play. Seider landed more than $2.5MM in potential performance bonuses for going so high, twice as much as Krebs and certainly more than he would have at his #16 ranking in the same TSN scouting poll.

Scott Perunovich Agrees To Terms With St. Louis Blues

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The St. Louis Blues have convinced one of their top college prospects to turn pro, agreeing to terms with Scott Perunovich. Interestingly though, this deal comes with a twist according to Jeremy Rutherford of The Athletic. Perunovich has agreed to two different versions of his entry-level contract. One would start in the 2019-20 season if it resumes at some point, and the other would be starting in 2020-21. The deal is for two seasons either way, though obviously would expire at different times.

Perunovich, 21, was the 45th selection in the 2018 draft and has continued to dominate at the college level. As a junior this year for the University of Minnesota-Duluth, he recorded 40 points in 34 games—as a defenseman mind you—and was named a top-10 finalist for the Hobey Baker Award as the country’s top college player.

Should the season resume at some point, Perunovich would actually be eligible to play for the Blues right away. Just as other college prospects have in recent years like Charlie McAvoy, Brock Boeser and Cale Makar, the young defenseman could be an impact player right away at the NHL level.

The 5’10” 175-lbs defenseman has won almost countless awards during his time at UMD, including the Tim Taylor Award as the NCAA’s best rookie in 2018. Add in two national titles with the Bulldogs, a World Junior bronze medal with Team USA and a potential Hobey Baker and you have a player that’s ready for the next level.

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