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Salary Cap Deep Dive: Nashville Predators

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Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2019-20 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Nashville Predators

Current Cap Hit: $80,165,476 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

D Dante Fabbro (two years, $925K)
F Rem Pitlick (one year, $925K)
F Eeli Tolvanen (two years, $894K)

Potential Bonuses

Tolvanen: $2.85MM
Fabbro: $850K

The team has a few players with entry-level contracts who could make an immediate impact. Fabbro is the obvious one, especially after the team traded away P.K. Subban to New Jersey in a cap-saving move. Fabbro, the team’s first-round pick in 2016, finally signed in late March after three seasons at Boston University, playing in four regular season games, followed by six playoff games, combining for one goal and two points in amongst those 10 games. Now with Subban gone, the team has to hope that Fabbro will be ready to immediately take over the open top-four spot in the team’s defense. If not the team could have some issues at that spot. The team also inked Pitlick, the team’s third-rounder in 2016, after three years at the University of Minnesota. After tallying 47 goals in three years, the team hopes that Pitlick can make his mark on the team immediately.

Tolvanen, who dominated in the KHL at 18 years of age, failed to make the Predators team last year and spent most of his season with the Milwaukee Admirals in the AHL, scoring 15 goals and 35 points in 58 games and will try to force his way into the Predators lineup this year with a good training camp.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F Mikael Granlund ($5.75MM, UFA)
F Craig Smith ($4.25MM, UFA)
D Roman Josi ($4MM, UFA)
D Dan Hamhuis ($1.25MM, UFA)
F Austin Watson ($1.1MM, UFA)
F Rocco Grimaldi ($1MM, UFA)
F Miikka Salomaki ($750K, UFA)
F Daniel Carr ($700K, UFA)
D Matt Irwin ($675K, UFA)
D Yannick Weber ($675K, UFA)
F Frederick Gaudreau ($667K, UFA)

The most well documented story is the Predators’ desire to lock up Josi to a long-term deal. The 29-year-old has proven to be an excellent defensive blueliner, but has also shown off quite a bit of offense, putting up 40 or more points for the past six seasons, including a 56-point performance last year. Josi has indicated that he wants to stay in Nashville, but evidently is waiting to see how the restricted free agent market pans out before signing any deal.

With significant cap issues coming up over the next few years, the Predators will have to make key decisions on what they want to do with Granlund and Smith. Nashville acquired Granlund at the trade deadline last year, swapping a younger Kevin Fiala for the 27-year-old, who will be a free agent at the end of the season. Granlund, who scored 47 goals in his two previous seasons, stepped back last year, scoring just 16 goals last season and only one of those in 16 games with Nashville. If Granlund can return to his 25-goal ways, the Predators are likely to find a way to keep him in the future, but another poor season could end their relationship early. Smith is a different situation. He’s been a 20-goal scorer for five of his last six seasons, but will be 31 when he signs his next deal. The question is whether the team wants to lock him up when he’s on the wrong side of 30.

Most of the other players listed here are depth options, with a number of bottom-pairing forwards and defensemen.

Two Years Remaining

G Pekka Rinne ($5MM, UFA)
F Nick Bonino ($4.1MM, UFA)
G Juuse Saros ($1.5MM, UFA)
D Steven Santini ($1.42MM, RFA)

The next two years could be the final two for Rinne, who will be 38 at that time. The veteran goaltender and Vezina Trophy winner put up another impressive season last year with a 30-19-4 record and a .918 save percentage. He will likely carry the load for the next two years, but Saros, the team’s goaltender of the future, will likely see more and more games before taking over as the Predators’ No. 1 goaltender in 2021-22. Saros played 31 games last season and while posting a 2.62 GAA, he did sport a .915 save percentage and should eventually get an extension.

Bonino was brought in from Pittsburgh to be the team’s third-string center and jumpstart the team’s bottom-six. He has done that, but also has found himself dropped down to the fourth line in the meantime and at $4.1MM, that’s a lot of money to be paying a bottom-line player. The only long-term hope, is that room is made so that Bonino, who posted 17 goals and 35 points last season, can return to his third-line role eventually.

Three Years Remaining

F Filip Forsberg ($6MM, UFA)
D Mattias Ekholm ($3.75MM, UFA)
F Calle Jarnkrok ($2MM, UFA)

The team has a solid bargain going with Forsberg making just $6MM per season. The Predators have gotten impressive production out of the winger, who posted 28 goals and 50 points last season (surprisingly his worst season of his career so far) and there is still hope that the 25-year-old may take his game up another notch and return to his 30-goal, 60-point mark that he has reached twice in his career or even take his game even further. However, the skilled winger remains an impressive player at a reasonable price for the next three years.

Ekholm may be the biggest bargain of the lot as the 29-year-old is one of the most underrated players in the league, showing off great defensive skill as well as posting 40 points for the first time in his career last year. Ekholm scored eight goals and 44 points last year and at under $4MM, the team has a cheap top-four player for quite a few years to come. Jarnkrok also gives the team a discounted player as the depth winger is a solid value at just $2MM per year.

Four Or More Years Remaining

F Matt Duchene ($8MM through 2025-26)
F Ryan Johansen ($8MM through 2024-25)
D Ryan Ellis ($6.25MM through 2026-27)
F Kyle Turris ($6MM through 2023-24)
F Viktor Arvidsson ($4.25MM through 2023-24)
F Colton Sissons ($2.86MM through 2025-26)

The team had to finally pay out to get themselves the No. 2 center that they desired. They thought they did that a few years ago when the traded for Turris and extended him, but so far that match hasn’t been what the team hoped for. However, after moving out Subban, the team had enough cap room to replace him on the roster with their biggest need, which will be filled by Duchene, who should be the perfect top-six center the team has coveted for year. Duchene is coming off a 31-goal, 70-point season and if he can continue to post numbers like that should be a solid value as well at $8MM per year. Turris, on the other hand, now moves down to the third-line center position and the team has high hopes that the 30-year-old will rebound from a seven-goal, 23-point disappointment last year. However, after a solid showing at the World Championships this summer, the team hopes he can rebound.

It’s hard to believe that people talk about the Nashville defense constantly, but only one of them is signed longer than three years. However, Ellis signed his long-term deal, which looks like a bargain for the team. The 28-year-old broke 40 points for the first time in his career and with his exceptional defense, is going to be a key member of their blueline for a long time.

Johansen’s goals have been down since coming over from Columbus, but he continues to be a dominant passer and put up a career high in assists this year with 50 as well as 64 points, the second-best of his career. The 27-year-old should only get better. Arvidsson is also locked up long-term as the 26-year-old scored a career-high 34 goals last season and has proven to be a top-line winger and even looks like a bargain at $4.25MM. Sissons also was just recently signed to a long-term, seven-year contract at a low price as the team believes he should be part of their bottom-six for a long time.

 

Buyouts

None

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Still To Sign

None

Best Value: Ekholm
Worst Value: Turris

Looking Ahead

The Nashville Predators have been put together impressively, using their no-tax situation to their advantage as players have made it clear that they want to stay in Nashville. The team has a solid core, but after a disappointing playoffs, the team must prove that they can return to their old dominance, especially in a challenging division like the Central, and continue to be one of the top teams in the league. Adding another top-six center should help and if they can get the most out of their players, the Predators should be a dominant team for years, but if head coach Peter Laviolette can’t get some of his players to take the next step in their development, they may be in trouble too.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Nashville Predators Hire Dan Lambert

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The Nashville Predators have hired Dan Lambert as an assistant coach, adding him to Peter Laviolette’s group for the 2019-20 season. Lambert spent the last two seasons as head coach of the Spokane Chiefs of the WHL, where he amassed a record of 81-46-13. Predators GM David Poile had this to say about his new coach:

Dan is an experienced, passionate coach and will nicely round out our coaching staff in 2019-20 and beyond. Having enjoyed a lengthy career as a player and now a coach, he has had success at every level running the power play, and we look forward to adding his knowledge and insight in this area to the organization.

Lambert, 49, was named to the Hockey Canada Program of Excellence last month and was set to serve as head coach for the 2019 Hlinka-Gretzky Cup. It’s not clear if he’ll still take on that role, but it goes to show just how he is perceived as an up-and-coming coach in the hockey world. Finishing a long professional career in 2009, he jumped right onto the bench of the Kelowna Rockets as an assistant, only to take over as head coach a few years later and win a WHL Championship. He jumped to the NHL after that with the Buffalo Sabres, and took over as head coach of the Rochester Americans of the AHL in 2016-17.

As a player, Lambert put up huge point totals in his career including a 102-point season in the WHL and an 87-point season in the IHL. As a coach with the Rockets, he helped develop NHL defensemen like Damon Severson, Madison Bowey, Josh Morrissey, and Tyson Barrie. That’s the exact type of development he’ll likely be asked to accomplish in Nashville, where the team already has an incredible defense corps but also a player like Dante Fabbro who the organization expects big things of. Lambert is also known as a powerplay specialist, something the Predators have struggled with for some time.

Central Notes: Saros, Subban, Fabbri, Anisimov

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The Nashville Predators have succeeded this year based on the play of Vezina Trophy winner Pekka Rinne’s play. While Rinne has posted a 14-5-1 record, a 1.96 GAA and a .929 save percentage, his backup Juuse Saros, who many felt might share net responsibilities with the 36-year-old Rinne this year, hasn’t fared nearly as well with an 8-5 record, a 3.14 GAA and a .893 save percentage.

However, while Saros’ numbers suggest that he’s struggling this season, head coach Peter Laviolette said Saturday that he believes that the team isn’t playing well when the 23-year-old is in net, according to The Athletic’s Adam Vingan (subscription required).

“I’m going to be perfectly honest. I think that we’ve played lousy in front of (Saros),” Laviolette said. “There’s got to be accountability to the 18 guys that go out in front of him. Just too many odd-man rushes, too many point-blank chances, and that’s got to stop. And when that stops, he’s going to feel better and look better in there. There’s just too much coming at him.”

While Vingan writes that there is some truth to the comment as the team has had some of their worst defensive showings with Saros in net, including losses to San Jose on Nov. 13, to St. Louis on Nov. 23 and Calgary on Dec. 8. However, when looking even deeper, Vingan notes that both goalies have faced the same number of quality shots per game and it’s just Rinne’s amazing play that has separated the two goaltenders.

  • Sportsnet’s Nick Kypreos suggested (via The Athletic’s Adam Vingan)that the unknown injury that Nashville Predators defenseman P.K. Subban is dealing with has nothing to do with the suspected back injury that he dealt with two years ago. Subban has missed 15 games this year with the undisclosed injury, but Kypreos said that Subban could be out for a bit longer. “It’s a real conservative approach by Nashville to keep him out. They think a 50-plus (game) regular season for P.K. could benefit him,” Kypreos said Saturday night on Hockey Night in Canada.
  • Lou Korac of NHL.com writes that oft-injured forward Robby Fabbri said he still should have a better idea around Christmas of his timetable of returning from his separated shoulder injury. “We’re just taking it day by day. I’m listening to the shoulder. What I do that day depends on how I wake up feeling and how I felt from the day before.”
  • Jon Lieser of the Chicago Sun-Times writes that while he’s not playing today, Chicago Blackhawks forward Artem Anisimov is close to returning to action. The 30-year-old should be eligible to be activated off IR before Tuesday’s game as he continues his recovery from a concussion suffered by a hit from Montreal’s Shea Weber on Dec. 9. “He looks like he’s closer to coming back, so hopefully he can,” coach Jeremy Colliton said at the morning skate. “I haven’t heard that he’s ready-ready, but we think he’s not far away.”

Nashville Predators Place Pekka Rinne On Injured Reserve

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The Nashville Predators have placed goaltender Pekka Rinne on injured reserve after leaving Friday night’s game in Calgary, according to TSN’s Ryan Rishaug. The transaction means that Rinne will be out a minimum of three games and won’t be able to return until next Saturday against Edmonton.

Rinne exited the ice early in the third period soon after colliding with teammate Kevin Fiala as the two got tangled up on Sam Bennett’s goal 2:20 minutes into the period. Rinne stayed in for another 2:43 seconds before finally being replaced by Juuse Saros. According to the Tennessean’s Paul Skrbina, head coach Peter Laviolette said it wasn’t the team’s or Rinne’s decision to leave the game. He left due to the league’s concussion protocol.

“We didn’t pull him, so something was wrong,” Laviolette said.

Saros is expected to fill in for the Predators for tonight’s game against Edmonton. The team intends to recall Miroslav Svoboda from Atlanta of the ECHL for tonight’s game, adds Rishaug, but considering that he’s in Atlanta and the game in Edmonton, it might be a challenge to get him there by game time.

It’s a big loss for the Predators. Rinne, last year’s Vezina Trophy winner, is 3-1 through five starts this year, posting a 2.10 GAA and an impressive .929 save percentage. The team is lucky to have Saros, who is Rinne’s eventual successor, although Nashville has been discussing an extension with Rinne recently. Saros has won all three of his appearances this season and boasts a 2.23 GAA and a .919 save percentage. Svoboda, the team’s seventh-rounder in 2015, has been impressive in two appearances in the ECHL, posting a 1.50 GAA and a .946 save percentage.

Poll: Who Will Be The First Coach Fired In 2018-19?

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Not a single NHL head coach was fired during the 2017-18 season, though several changes have been made since. Barry Trotz and Bill Peters resigned their positions in Washington and Carolina, and were each hired to replace the outgoing bench bosses in New York and Calgary. Those two were Doug Weight and Glen Gulutzan, who both failed to get their teams to the playoffs in year two of their coaching history (Weight replaced Jack Capuano partway through the 2016-17 season). Assistant coaches moved up the ladder in Washington and Carolina, while the NCAA ranks were mined for new openings for the Dallas Stars and New York Rangers. Jim Montgomery and David Quinn took over for Ken Hitchcock and Alain Vingeault respectively, bringing new ideas and fresh faces to the NHL coaching circuit.

It’s not new for coaches to be fired in the offseason, but seeing no one sent packing during the year is a very rare occurrence. It was the first time it had happened since 1966-67, meaning the likelihood of it happening again in 2018-19 seems very low. So then, who will be the first to feel the seat burning underneath him? The last time we asked a question like this the readers correctly guessed that Vingeault was on his way out, but also listed Claude Julien in Montreal, Jeff Blashill in Detroit and Rick Tocchet in Arizona as possibilities.

Who will be the first coach fired in 2018-19? Will it happen at all? Cast your vote below and make sure to explain why in the comment section.

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Poll: Who Should Win Coach Of The Year?

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The Jack Adams is a tough trophy to award. Almost always based on team success relative to the prior year, or in the face of injury, it’s an award whose voters rarely have all of the pertinent information. No one can say for sure what is the best coaching method, or how one individual decision affected the results of an entire hockey team.

That said, the league seemed—from the outside at least—to have an excellent field of coaches to choose from this year. Three finalists were named in Gerard Gallant (Vegas), Jared Bednar (Colorado) and Bruce Cassidy (Boston), but other names like John Hynes (New Jersey), Paul Maurice (Winnipeg) and Peter Laviolette (Nashville) all could have found themselves in the race in any other year.

The question is should they have been in the race this year? Should someone else, like Jon Cooper or Peter DeBoer have been considered? What exactly determines the “coach adjudged to have contributed the most to his team’s success” in your mind? While Gallant may be the expected winner by many around the league, should he be?

Vote below on not who you think will win, but who you think should win the Jack Adams trophy. Our similar poll for the Calder resulted in different finalists, while our readership picked the same top three for the Norris. Remember this is based on regular season results, not the first round of the playoffs. Explain your choice in the comment section below.

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Snapshots: Panthers, DeBrusk, Trouba, Tolvanen

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Despite an impressive second-half run – 19-7-2 since February 1st – the Florida Panthers are still fighting for their playoff lives in each and every game. They face a major test this afternoon against the Boston Bruins and will do so without two offensive weapons. According to Panthers play-by-play man Steve Goldstein, both Denis Malgin and trade deadline acquisition and former Bruin Frank Vatrano are too “banged up” to go today. Vatrano has four points in eleven games since joining Florida, while Malgin has 11 goals and 20 points in 49 games for the Cats thus far. Their replacements, unproven Maxim Mamin and grinder Micheal Haley, have been far less productive in 2017-18. Given the importance of the match-up and the fact that Boston is getting Jake DeBrusk back in the lineup makes the absences of Malgin and Vatrano a stroke of bad luck for the playoff-hungry Panthers.

  • A postseason-bound club getting healthier is the Winnipeg Jets. The Jets will welcome defenseman Jacob Trouba back into the lineup tonight, reports Sportsnet’s Chris Johnston. Trouba has missed the past two weeks while battling concussions symptoms. He suffered that head injury in just his second game back after missing 20 games due to a lower-body injury. If Trouba is really back at 100% and ready to return to his major role on the Winnipeg blue line, it will be a major boost for the Jets.
  • Making his long-awaited debut for the Nashville Predators today is 2017 first-round pick Eeli Tolvanen. Tolvanen finished up his KHL season last week and joined the Preds on Wednesday, but head coach Peter Laviolette confirmed that he will be in the lineup today against the Buffalo Sabres. While Tolvanen found instant success in Europe and looks poised to be a big-time player for a long time in Nashville, it’s no surprise that he makes his debut in a relatively meaningless game against the lowly Sabres. Tolvanen may need an adjustment period to get used to the North American game and it remains to be seen how he will be used down the stretch and in the postseason.

Poll: Which Coach Is Least Likely To Be Back Next Season?

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The NHL has gone almost the entire season without seeing a head coach fired, something that hasn’t happened in more than fifty years. Even with that said, it seems unlikely that all 31 head coaches will be back next season, either through expiration of their contract or termination by a frustrated GM.

Barry Trotz, for instance, is on the last year of his current contract and seems tied to the Washington Capitals playoff success this year. Though Washington GM Brian MacLellan was given a contract extension recently, there has been no word on Trotz, who has never advanced past the second round in his 19-year NHL coaching career.

There has been some talk of even the great Joel Quenneville being let go from Chicago, after the disappointing season the Blackhawks have suffered through. Quenneville is one of the greatest of all time, but even he might have to pay the price for underperforming stars and an aging core.

Who do you think is least likely to be brought back by their current team? Which coach won’t be wearing the same colors next season? Make sure to explain your vote in the comment section below.

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NHL Reveals Coaches For Upcoming All-Star Game

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The NHL announced the coaches for the 2018 NHL All-Star game in Tampa Bay on Jan. 28, as Tampa Bay Lightning’s Jon Cooper, Vegas Golden Knights’ Gerard Gallant, Washington Capitals’ Barry Trotz and Nashville Predators’ Peter Laviolette will coach their respective divisions.

For the third straight season, the all-star game will feature a 3-on-3, three-game tournament, showcasing each division. Each divisional team will have six forwards, three defensemen and two goaltenders. The coaching selections were based on the team that had the highest point percentage as of Jan. 6, the halfway point of the season.

Cooper earned his first trip to the all-star game in six years as an NHL coach. Tampa Bay has the best record in hockey at 29-9-3. Gallant has earned the invite by taking a first-year expansion team and given them the second-best record in hockey at 28-10-2. It is his second all-star selection in seven years of NHL coaching. Trotz will make his third NHL all-star appearance in 19 years of coaching. The Capitals boast a 25-13-3 record. Laviolette will make his second appearance in 16 seasons as a coach. The Predators have a 25-11-6 record, tied for second in the Central Division, but have a slightly higher points percentage than Winnipeg Jets coach Paul Maurice, who has one more overtime loss.

Full all-star rosters will be released Wednesday. The all-star captains were already named by fan votes as Edmonton’s Connor McDavid (Pacific), Washington’s Alex Ovechkin (Metropolitan), Tampa Bay’s Steven Stamkos (Atlantic) and Nashville’s P.K. Subban (Central) were voted in.

 

Nashville Places Filip Forsberg On Injured Reserve

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4:41pm: Vingan reports that it is an upper-body injury and there is no timetable for his return.

4:31pm: The Nashville Predators have taken a huge blow as star forward Filip Forsberg was placed on injured reserve today after sustaining an unknown injury in Friday’s game against the Minnesota Wild, according to Adam Vingan of the Tennessean. The winger left the game with 8:40 remaining in the third period.

“He left with a problem,” Predators coach Peter Laviolette said Friday. “We’ll have an update Saturday (probably).”

No update has come across yet. While the impact of the injury is unknown, the loss of Forsberg for any time will be felt. He leads the team in goals scored (15), assists (19) and points (34). Forsberg has been one of the healthiest players in the NHL as he hasn’t missed a game since before the 2014-15 season. He last missed on April 13, 2014 and was one of nine NHL players to have played in every NHL since the 2014-15 season.

The team already made a corresponding move when they recalled forward Frederick Gaudreau from the Milwaukee Admirals of the AHL earlier today. Gaudreau has already played 17 games for Nashville this year and has three assists.

Assuming he would be eligible to return within a week and the move is retroactive to Friday, the team would only lose Forsberg for two games, including tonight’s back end of the home-and-home with Minnesota and another game Thursday at Arizona.

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