Who Is On Pace To Score 60 Points In 2017-18?
In 2016-17, only 42 NHLers hit the 60-point benchmark for the season. It was the lowest total since the 2012-13 lockout-shortened season (obviously), when only Martin St. Louis notched sixty, and down eleven from the 53 players who hit the mark two years earlier in 2014-15. However, with scoring up this season in the NHL, will the league increase it’s number of top scorers? Or will a greater depth and distribution of talent continue to limit players from reaching the high numbers of yesteryear?
As of now, with the 2017 segment of the season about to close, here are the players on pace for 60 points in 2017-18:
- Nikita Kucherov, Tampa Bay Lightning – Currently: 54 points in 37 games, Projection: 120 points
- Steven Stamkos, Tampa Bay Lightning – Currently: 48 points in 37 games, Projection: 107 points
- John Tavares, New York Islanders – Currently: 49 points in 38 games, Projection: 106 points
- Josh Bailey, New York Islanders – Currently: 49 points in 38 games, Projection: 106 points
- Jakub Voracek, Philadelphia Flyers – Currently: 46 points in 38 games, Projection: 99 points
- Claude Giroux, Philadelphia Flyers – Currently: 46 points in 38 games, Projection: 99 points
- Connor McDavid, Edmonton Oilers – Currently: 45 points in 38 games, Projection: 97 points
- Nathan MacKinnon, Colorado Avalanche – Currently: 43 points in 37 games, Projection: 95 points
- Blake Wheeler, Winnipeg Jets – Currently: 44 points in 39 games, Projection: 93 points
- Johnny Gaudreau, Calgary Flames – Currently: 41 points in 38 games, Projection: 89 points
- Phil Kessel, Pittsburgh Penguins – Currently: 41 points in 39 games, Projection: 86 points
- Alex Ovechkin, Washington Capitals – Currently: 41 points in 40 games, Projection: 84 points
- Anze Kopitar, Los Angeles Kings – Currently: 40 points in 39 games, Projection: 84 points
- Anders Lee, New York Islanders – Currently: 39 points in 38 games, Projection: 84 points
- Patrick Kane, Chicago Blackhawks – Currently: 38 points in 37 games, Projection: 84 points
- Brock Boeser*, Vancouver Canucks – Currently: 38 points in 36 games, Projection: 84 points
- Brayden Schenn, St. Louis Blues – Currently: 41 points in 41 games, Projection: 82 points
- Brad Marchand, Boston Bruins – Currently: 32 points in 29 games, Projection: 82 points
- Jon Marchessault, Vegas Golden Knights – Currently: 34 points in 33 games, Projection: 81 points
- Evgeny Kuznetsov, Washington Capitals – Currently: 39 points in 40 games, Projection: 80 points
- Taylor Hall, New Jersey Devils – Currently: 36 points in 36 games, Projection: 80 points
- Jonathan Huberdeau, Florida Panthers – Currently: 36 points in 38 games, Projection: 78 points
- Vincent Trocheck, Florida Panthers – Currently: 36 points in 38 games, Projection: 78 points
- Mathew Barzal*, New York Islanders – Currently: 36 points in 38 games, Projection: 78 points
- Sean Couturier, Philadelphia Flyers – Currently: 36 points in 38 games, Projection: 78 points
- Evgeni Malkin, Pittsburgh Penguins – Currently: 35 points in 35 games, Projection: 78 points
- Vladimir Tarasenko, St. Louis Blues – Currently: 38 points in 41 games, Projection: 76 points
- Jack Eichel, Buffalo Sabres – Currently: 35 points in 38 games, Projection: 75 points
- David Pastrnak, Boston Bruins – Currently: 34 points in 37 games, Projection: 75 points
- Mark Stone, Ottawa Senators – Currently: 34 points in 37 games, Projection: 75 points
- Brayden Point, Tampa Bay Lightning – Currently: 34 points in 37 games, Projection: 75 points
- Sidney Crosby, Pittsburgh Penguins – Currently: 35 points in 39 games, Projection: 74 points
- Jamie Benn, Dallas Stars – Currently: 35 points in 39 games, Projection: 74 points
- David Perron, Vegas Golden Knights – Currently: 29 points in 30 games, Projection: 74 points
- Evander Kane, Buffalo Sabres – Currently: 34 points in 38 games, Projection: 73 points
- Aleksander Barkov, Florida Panthers – Currently: 33 points in 37 games, Projection: 73 points
- Mikko Rantanen, Colorado Avalanche – Currently: 33 points in 37 games, Projection: 73 points
- Leon Draisaitl, Edmonton Oilers – Currently: 32 points in 34 games, Projection: 73 points
- Auston Matthews, Toronto Maple Leafs – Currently: 29 points in 29 games, Projection: 72 points
- Artemi Panarin, Columbus Blue Jackets – Currently: 34 points in 39 games, Projection: 71 points
- Tyler Seguin, Dallas Stars – Currently: 34 points in 39 games, Projection: 71 points
- Vlad Namestnikov, Tampa Bay Lightning – Currently: 32 points in 37 games, Projection: 71 points
- Eric Staal, Minnesota Wild – Currently: 33 points in 39 games, Projection: 70 points
- Ryan Getzlaf, Anaheim Ducks – Currently: 18 points in 15 games, Projection: 70 points
- Sean Monahan, Calgary Flames – Currently: 32 points in 38 games, Projection: 69 points
- Dylan Larkin, Detroit Red Wings – Currently: 31 points in 37 games, Projection: 69 points
- John Klingberg, Dallas Stars – Currently: 32 points in 39 games, Projection: 67 points
- William Karlsson, Vegas Golden Knights – Currently: 29 points in 36 games, Projection: 66 points
- Gabriel Landeskog, Colorado Avalanche – Currently: 28 points in 33 games, Projection: 66 points
- Shayne Gostisbehere, Philadelphia Flyers – Currently: 29 points in 35 games, Projection: 66 points
- Nicklas Backstrom, Washington Capitals – Currently: 31 points in 39 games, Projection: 65 points
- Alexander Radulov, Dallas Stars – Currently: 31 points in 39 games, Projection: 65 points
- Patrik Laine, Winnipeg Jets – Currently: 31 points in 39 games, Projection: 65 points
- Clayton Keller*, Arizona Coyotes – Currently: 31 points in 40 games, Projection: 64 points
- John Carlson, Washington Capitals – Currently: 31 points in 40 games, Projection: 64 points
- Reilly Smith, Vegas Golden Knights – Currently: 28 points in 36 games, Projection: 64 points
- Nikolaj Ehlers, Winnipeg Jets – Currently: 30 points in 39 games, Projection: 63 points
- P.K. Subban, Nashville Predators – Currently: 29 points in 38 games, Projection: 62 points
- Mats Zuccarello, New York Rangers – Currently: 29 points in 38 games, Projection: 62 points
- Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Edmonton Oilers – Currently: 29 points in 38 games, Projection: 62 points
- Teuvo Teravainen, Carolina Hurricanes – Currently: 29 points in 38 games, Projection: 62 points
- Sebastian Aho, Carolina Hurricanes – Currently: 29 points in 38 games, Projection: 62 points
- James Neal, Vegas Golden Knights – Currently: 27 points in 36 games, Projection: 62 points
- Kyle Turris, Nashville Predators – Currently: 27 points in 34 games, Projection: 62 points
- Danton Heinen*, Boston Bruins – Currently: 26 points in 33 games, Projection: 62 points
- Drew Doughty, Los Angeles Kings – Currently: 29 points in 39 games, Projection: 61 points
- Dustin Brown, Los Angeles Kings – Currently: 29 points in 39 games, Projection: 61 points
- Mitch Marner, Toronto Maple Leafs – Currently: 29 points in 39 games, Projection: 61 points
- Jordan Eberle, New York Islanders – Currently: 28 points in 38 games, Projection: 61 points
- Joe Thornton, San Jose Sharks – Currently: 26 points in 35 games, Projection: 61 points
- Mikael Granlund, Minnesota Wild – 27 points in 34 games, Projection: 61 points
- Rickard Rakell, Anaheim Ducks – Currently: 27 points in 34 games, Projection: 61 points
- Tyler Johnson, Tampa Bay Lightning – Currently: 27 points in 36 games, Projection: 61 points
- Erik Haula, Vegas Golden Knights – Currently: 25 points in 32 games, Projection: 61 points
- Victor Hedman, Tampa Bay Lightning – Currently: 27 points in 37 games, Projection: 60 points
- Patrice Bergeron, Boston Bruins- Currently: 25 points in 32 games, Projection: 60 points
- Erik Karlsson, Ottawa Senators – Currently: 25 points in 32 games, Projection: 60 points
What Your Team Is Thankful For: Florida Panthers
As the holiday season approaches, PHR will look at what teams are thankful for as the season nears the quarter point of completion. There also might be a few things your team would like down the road. We take a look at what’s gone well in the first month and what could improve as the season rolls on. So far we’ve covered ANA, ARZ, BUF, CGY, CAR, CBJ, COL, DET, LAK, NSH, NJD, NYI, STL, TOR, VAN, VGK and WSH.
What are the Florida Panthers most thankful for?
The upcoming 2018 draft class.
It’s not that the Florida Panthers are already out of playoff contention. They’re not. It’s that even if this season doesn’t turn around, and they do end up finishing where they are right now—that is, 28th out of 31 teams—they’ll be in fine shape at next year’s draft. The team already has some solid pieces up front, and two impressive young defensemen locked up long-term in Aaron Ekblad and Mike Matheson, but they need more on the back end and they know it. Luckily, this year’s draft class has several potential franchise-changing options on defense.
Rasmus Dahlin, projected at the moment to go first-overall is already a star in Sweden and could make his country’s Olympic squad before he turns 18. Adam Boqvist, another Swede, is just about as impressive and oozes elite offensive upside. Quinn Hughes and Ryan Merkley are both puck-rushing dynamos, though similarly undersized. If the small, mobile defender isn’t your thing, Noah Dobson, Jared McIssac, Bode Wilde and Evan Bouchard all carry more weight and two-way ability, though in different ways. In a nutshell, this year is loaded with defensive talent.
Florida has an extra thing going for them in the draft. While they don’t have their own second-round pick, they do have Arizona’s. Since the lottery only moves picks in the first round, and Arizona looks poised for another stint at or near the very bottom of the league, the Panthers are looking at selecting their second player somewhere in the early-thirties regardless of what they do for the rest of their season. There should still be plenty of talent in the early second.
Who are the Panthers most thankful for?
Quite simply, Barkov is a superstar. Not only is he well on his way to a career-high in points, currently sitting at 26 in 27 games, but he should receive Selke votes as one of the league’s best defensive forwards for the fourth straight year. Though he’s never won the trophy, it’s important to note that he’s still just 22-years old and already playing 23 minutes a night as one of the best two-way centers in the league. Not to mention that he’s signed for just $5.9MM for four more seasons and is on pace for his first 30-goal season. There’s no doubt that Florida has made some mistakes over the past few years, but signing Barkov long-term immediately wasn’t one of them.
Surrounding Barkov are Vincent Trochek and Jonathan Huberdeau, two other young stars not yet even halfway through their twenties. Both are basically point-per-game players this season, and though the Panthers clearly rely on those three more than a winning team should need to, they represent an excellent core to build around. All three are signed through at least 2021-22, giving the team more than enough time to give them the support they need.
What would the Panthers be even more thankful for?
A do-over at the Expansion draft.
It was obvious when Dale Tallon regained control of the Panthers that he didn’t agree with some of the decisions made by Tom Rowe and his more analytical-driven team. One of those decisions was Reilly Smith‘s $25MM extension, which Tallon jettisoned at the expansion draft just before it was set to kick in. To rid their books of Smith’s contract, they left Jonathan Marchessault available for the Vegas Golden Knights to select, handing over a 30-goal scorer that was owed just $750K this season. Though it was considered a budget-slashing move at the time, just a few weeks later the Panthers signed Evgeni Dadonov to a three-year, $12MM contract and then handed Radim Vrbata $2.5MM on the open market.
Sure, Dadonov has been a very good player for the Panthers this season and Vrbata doesn’t come with the same long-term risk that Smith’s deal represented, but after watching the duo rack up 46 points through the first part of the season on playoff-bound (for now) Golden Knights there has to be some regret. Florida had to lose a player, as every team did, but sending Smith, allowing Marchessault to be selected, and receiving just a fourth-round pick in return looks like a huge blunder at this point. At the very least, Marchessault would have been worth much more than that as a rental player if this season had still ended up poorly.
What should be on the Panthers’ Holiday Wish List?
A bubble to keep Roberto Luongo healthy after he returns.
The Panthers are without their starting goaltender once again, as Luongo is out for some time with what is expected to be a groin injury. While James Reimer was signed for this very reason, he hasn’t been nearly good enough this season to inspire much confidence. Luongo, 39 in April, has been having his best season in years between injuries, recording a .928 save percentage and generally looking as sharp as ever. Reimer on the other hand has just an .892 mark (easily the worst of his career) and hasn’t been able to find his game just yet.
It’s likely that Reimer rebounds at least somewhat to the .914 goaltender he’s proven to be throughout his career, but if the Panthers are to make any run at a playoff spot this year they’ll need this to be the last injury of the season for Luongo. If Barkov and company can drag them a bit closer, perhaps the veteran goaltender can lead a late-season surge towards respectability.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Metropolitan Notes: Santini, Ho-Sang, Hunwick, Niskanen, Vesey
The New Jersey Devils got back into the win column Saturday after failing to win their previous four games. Despite that fact, New Jersey remains in first place with a 10-4-2 record in a tough Metropolitan Division. Yet, the team’s 2-1 victory Saturday against the Florida Panthers was a defensive effort in which many players praised the play of unheralded defenseman Steven Santini, according to The Record’s Andrew Gross.
The physical 22-year-old defenseman only played in 38 games a year ago, but is a mainstay on the team’s defense this year. The former second-round pick from 2013, showed off his physicality against Florida with big hits, most notably a hit in which he dumped the Panthers’ Aleksander Barkov into his team’s own bench in the second period. Santini got plenty of ice time with 23:42, was credited with four hits and was smart enough to avoid a penalty when challenged by Panthers’ enforcer Micheal Haley in the third period.
- New York Islanders Joshua Ho-Sang made the most of his emergency recall Saturday when he scored a goal against the St. Louis Blues last night, according to Arthur Staple of Newsday. Ho-Sang, the team’s first-round pick in 2014, had played six games with the Islanders to start the season, but was sent down to work on improving his in-game mentality — knowing when to drive to the net and when to dump the puck. Ho-Sang had put up two goals and four assists in six games during that span with the AHL Bridgeport Sound Tigers, but with Anthony Beauvillier day-to-day, Ho-Sang got his chance to redeem himself. He can stay up on an emergency basis for 30 days or 10 games, but the team could always officially recall him as well.
- Jonathan Bombulie of The Trib Live writes that Pittsburgh Penguins defenseman Matt Hunwick, who has already missed 12 games due to a concussion diagnosed on Oct. 17, has hit a plateau in his recovery and will be held off the ice for a few more days. “He’s been having a tough time getting over that last hurdle, and so they want to take a little bit of a different approach to try to get him over that last hump,” coach Mike Sullivan said.
- NBC Sports Tarik El-Bashir writes that Washington Capitals defenseman Matt Niskanen will travel on the team’s upcoming road trip to Nashville and Colorado, according to head coach Barry Trotz. Niskanen, who has been on LTIR since Oct. 14 due to an upper-body injury, will not suit up tonight against the Edmonton Oilers, but could be ready to suit up for one or both of the away games this week. The Washington Post’s Isabelle Khurshudyan tweets that Niskanen has been cleared for contact, but is not “full go” and may or may not be ready for games this week. A key veteran defender, the team’s defense would get a big boost upon his return.
- New York Rangers forward Jimmy Vesey went straight to the dentist after Saturday’s victory over the Edmonton Oilers, according to Newsday’s Steve Zipay. The 24-year-old wing took a Zack Kassian skate to the mouth in the second period. Two of Vesey’s teeth had to be removed from his lip. Despite the injury, Vesey returned for a shift in the third period and wore a protective plastic cage attached to the lower part of his helmet. He is day-to-day.
NHL Snapshots: Kadri, Sanheim, Matheson, Jaros
Toronto Maple Leafs center Nazem Kadri is entering his ninth season of playing NHL hockey and for the first time ever, the 27-year-old broke the 30-goal plateau last year. Yet the center who feeds Patrick Marleau and Leo Komarov, believes he can do it again, according to Jonas Siegel of The Athletic (subscription required).
Siegel analyzes whether Kadri can, in fact, accomplish his boast. He writes that Kadri has one major asset that’s in his favor — to have a key role on one of the best power play units in the league, which he does. He scored 12 of his 32 goals last year on the power play, which was eighth in the league. Now with Marleau around added to the team’s arsenal, Kadri could very likely accomplish that feat.
However, one other thing that Siegel points out is that Kadri has learned a lot after having played in more than 400 games. His experience has taught him where to set up in front of the net, how to anticipate a scoring opportunity and quick reactions.
- Sam Cardichi of Philly.com writes that Philadelphia Flyers’ Travis Sanheim will likely stick with the Flyers for the time being after a bounce-back game against the Anaheim Ducks. Unfortunately, that means that 22-year-old defenseman Samuel Morin will likely be sent down to Lehigh Valley soon, despite a strong preseason and receiving three healthy scratches in the team’s first three games.
- NBC Sports Adam Gretz breaks down the Florida Panthers future salary cap situation after the team locked up defenseman Michael Matheson to an eight-year, $39MM contract Saturday. He writes the team now has nine players who are signed through the next four seasons, of which six are 25 years or under and they total $47.3MM combined. The group of Aaron Ekblad, Jonathan Huberdeau, Aleksander Barkov, Vincent Trocheck, and Nick Bjugstad lead their youth movement, while they also have Keith Yandle, Roberto Luongo and James Reimer locked up. However, Gretz writes that since the team doesn’t have any upcoming big contracts to hand out, the team will have a significant amount of cap space to fill out their roster with even more talent, suggesting that the Panthers are heading in the right direction.
- Along with the recall of Thomas Chabot, the Ottawa Senators also recalled defenseman Christian Jaros on Sunday. The 21-year-old defenseman came over from Sweden just this year and has played in just two games for the Belleville Senators, picking up one assist. He and Chabot will fill in for all the team’s defensive injuries.
2017-18 Primer: Florida Panthers
With the NHL season now just a couple of weeks away, we continue our look at what each team has done this summer and what to watch for in the year to come. Today, we focus on the Florida Panthers.
Last Season: 35-36-11 record (81 points), sixth in Atlantic Division (missed playoffs)
Remaining Cap Space: $11.49MM per CapFriendly
Key Additions: F Evgeni Dadonov (free agency, KHL), F Radim Vrbata (free agency, Arizona), F Jamie McGinn (trade, Arizona)
Key Departures: F Jaromir Jagr (free agency, unsigned), D Jason Demers (trade, Arizona), F Reilly Smith (trade, Vegas), F Jon Marchessault (expansion, Vegas), F Jussi Jokinen (buyout), F Shawn Thornton (retired), F Thomas Vanek (free agency, Vancouver)
[Related: Panthers Depth Chart From Roster Resource]
Players To Watch: F Aleksander Barkov & F Jonathan Huberdeau – Last year was an extreme disappointment for the Panthers, who came into the season with high expectations after winning the Atlantic Division in 2015-16. Even with solid performances from young players like Marchessault and Vincent Trocheck, the Panthers failings resulted from one key thing: Barkov and Huberdeau played just 92 games combined.
When healthy, the pair combined for 78 points in those 92 games, Barkov providing the majority with 52 in 61. While it’s easy to point at injury for many teams, the Panthers lost key players (including Aaron Ekblad) for long stretches and could never recover.
Some people may forget that Barkov and Huberdeau are a couple of the most impressive young players in the league, who each have 60-point, 30-goal potential if they can stay healthy and take a step forward. As just 22 and 24 respectively, it doesn’t seem that far-fetched.
Key Storyline: The Florida Panthers’ front office was one of the battlegrounds in the fight between analytic and traditional scouting methods. The Panthers looked like they were going to be on the forefront of statistical evaluation running the team, but this season fell apart and both Gerard Gallant and Tom Rowe were fired.
Back came Dale Tallon, and with him some of the old-school hockey knowledge that has a slightly different idea in how to improve this team. Demers, Smith, Marchessault were all shipped out of town quickly, before they could do any long-term harm, replacing some of the work Rowe did last summer.
The Panthers have a new direction led by an old face, but should be able to overcome any possible possession regression and still be quite a dangerous team. Whether it really has been an ousting of the “analytics people” from the decision making is unclear, but it will be interesting to see how they bounce back this year. A healthy team could provide a false positive for their new style, and hurt them down the road. Or, like many have believed before, perhaps the old guard really can see something that numbers don’t tell us.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Florida Panthers To Give Tippett Every Chance To Make Team
Since taking back control of the Florida Panthers franchise in April, general manager Dale Tallon has been busy reshaping his roster this offseason after the team failed to make the playoffs this past year. He unloaded young wing Reilly Smith and his large contract to Vegas along with soon-to-be unrestricted free agent Jon Marchessault to remove future cap problems that likely would have arisen. He handed out a one-year deal to free agent scorer Radim Vrbata to make up for some of that goal scoring and brought back former Panther Evgeni Dadonov from the KHL on a reasonable three-year deal. He also re-signed penalty killing defenseman Mark Pysyk to a three-year deal. However, his focus has been on building a team around its youthful core, including Jonathan Huberdeau, Aleksander Barkov, Vincent Trocheck, Nick Bjugstad and defenseman Aaron Ekblad, all who are 24 years of age or under and already locked up long-term. However, the Panthers might be ready to add another name to that list.
The Panthers seem ready to give their 2017 first-rounder Owen Tippett every chance to join their young team immediately, according to NBC Sports Adam Gretz. After an impressive showing at their development camp, Tallon was quick to point out that Tippett will be given every opportunity to make the squad this year.
“He’s going to get every opportunity,” said Tallon (via the Panthers). “I don’t have any problem and [head coach Bob Boughner] and our coaching staff don’t have any issues playing young guys. We’re building a team that’s going to be around for a long time and we’ll give him every opportunity to play this year.”
Tippett, who is a pure scorer, would fill a major need as many of their top players are playmakers rather than goal producers. The 18-year-old is coming off a season in which he scored 44 goals for Mississaugua Steelheads in the OHL last year. He was ranked as the seventh-best North American skater by NHL.com.
Snapshots: Despres, Shero, Hextall, Flames
Anaheim general manager Bob Murray released a statement regarding the buyout of defenseman Simon Despres. The 25-year-old was placed on waivers earlier in the day with the intention of being bought out. Murray said the following from Anaheim’s twitter account:
“Simon Despres is a good hockey player and a good person. But, at this point, we feel it is the best interests of both Simon and the organization to part ways. We wish him the very best in the future.”
Despres responded as well on Twitter, writing:
“I’d like to thank the
@AnaheimDucks for a wonderful 2 and a half years. I wish my teammates all the best moving forward.”
- Ray Shero still has the #1 pick with a week to go before the draft writes the AP’s Tom Canavan. Shero isn’t denying that he could still trade the pick away, but for all intents and purposes, he told his staff to prepare for taking someone with the first overall choice. The next question: who would they take? Shero told Canavan that the draft reminds him of 2013, where there were four very good players in Nathan MacKinnon, Aleksander Barkov, Jonathan Drouin, and Seth Jones. Canavan writes that the Devils need a goal scorer, which would definitely be found in either Nolan Patrick or Nico Hischier, both believed to be the top two prospects in the draft.
- Flyers general manager Ron Hextall might still make a move writes Philadelphia Inquirer’s Sam Carchidi. Saying there was a 25-75% chance he makes a move, Hextall is going with the 7-3-1 format and has to decide between Michal Neuvirth and Anthony Stolarz when choosing the one goaltender to protect. Hextall calls it a more “philosophical” decision than a “difficult” one since it essentially comes down to picking a veteran or a rookie. Carchidi also writes that Hextall may still re-sign Steve Mason while saying that he will not be buying out any contracts. Sitting behind New Jersey with the second pick, Hextall also professes to having “no idea” what the Devils will do with the first overall pick.
- Postmedia’s Kristen Odland reports that the process of an expansion draft is especially taxing to players who have no idea what to expect. She quotes assistant general manager Craig Conroy, who survived an expansion draft with the St.Louis Blues in both 1998 and 2000. Conroy likened it to the trade deadline, saying there’s nothing players can do about it and that they “signed up for this.” Odland lists netminder Brian Elliott as a question mark, wondering if he’ll be protected as free agency looms. With a goalie market that isn’t exactly full of options, she believes that he could be protected, but his struggles during the playoffs may be a reason he’s left off the list.
Expansion Primer: Florida Panthers
Over the next few weeks we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, and which will likely warrant protection or may be on the block. Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4pm CDT on June 17th. The full rules on eligibility can be found here, and CapFriendly has provided a handy expansion tool to make your own lists.
After cracking 100 points and winning the Atlantic Division in 2015-16, injuries and overall under-performance sent the Panthers tumbling back to Earth in 2016-17. Florida finished with over 20 points less, at 81, good enough for sixth in the division and a top-ten draft slot. Yet, hopes remain high in Sunrise, FL as the Panthers are still a team built around young stars that has just begun to reach its potential. With Huberdeau, Trochek, Barkov, Bjugstad, Ekblad, and Matheson forming a core group under 25 with top prospects like forwards Henrik Borgstrom and Adam Mascherin and goalie Sam Montembeault still on the way, Florida only has to worry about adding complementary pieces to a talented young group.
Yet, the shadow of the Expansion Draft still looms large over the Panthers. With so many good, young players under contract, the expansion process will not be easy for the Cats. They may be able to protect their best young players, but they are nearly guaranteed to lose a solid complementary veteran.
Eligible Players (Non-UFA)
Forwards
Jonathan Huberdeau, Aleksander Barkov, Reilly Smith, Vincent Trocheck, Nick Bjugstad, Jussi Jokinen, Derek MacKenzie, Colton Sceviour, Jonathan Marchessault, Steven Hodges, Michael Sgarbossa, Graham Black
Defense
Keith Yandle (NMC), Aaron Ekblad, Jason Demers, Alex Petrovic, Mark Pysyk, MacKenzie Weegar, Reece Scarlett
Goaltender
Roberto Luongo, James Reimer
Notable Exemptions
Jared McCann, Denis Malgin, Michael Matheson, Ian McCoshen
Key Decisions
The Panthers don’t have an easy decision to make at any position group. They face the risk of losing a prominent forward, defenseman, or goalie if they don’t read the Vegas Golden Knights correctly. Perhaps the biggest name who may be left unprotected in net: potential future Hall of Fame goalie Roberto Luongo. Many were surprised when the Panthers brought back Luongo, and with him the remainder of a 12-year, $64MM contract, in 2014. Even more were surprised when, nonetheless, Florida signed James Reimer to a five-year, $17MM contract on July 1st of last year. That move seems like it has partly been leading up to this point. While Luongo and Reimer each started 39 games in 2016-17 with very similar records, Reimer had the edge on Luongo in performance statistics. While this was their first season sharing the net, it is now the second season in a row in which Reimer has outplayed Luongo. It seems very unlikely that Florida will choose to protect the 38-year-old Luongo, who is under contract at $5.33MM per year until the age of 43, over the 29-year-old Reimer, with a more reasonable $3.4MM cap hit over that same span of time. Luongo will thus likely be one of the biggest names under contract and available to Vegas, but don’t expect a new team to take on that contract. Should they expose Reimer instead, the chances are much higher that the Knights will select a Panther goalie, but chances are both keepers are back in Florida next year regardless.
Among the forward corps, there is a lot to sort out. To get the easy ones out of the way, young scorers Jonathan Huberdeau, Vincent Trocheck, Aleksander Barkov, and Nick Bjugstad are almost surely safe. Assuming the Panthers go with the 7/3 scheme, that leaves them with three forwards left to protect. If they do go 8-skaters, then those four would represent all the protected forwards. After a breakout campaign in which he led the Panthers with 30 goals, 26-year-old Jonathan Marchessault is also highly likely to be protected. This leaves just two spots left for four valuable veteran forwards: Reilly Smith, Jussi Jokinen, Colton Sceviour, and captain Derek MacKenzie. Luckily for the Panthers, all four meet the qualifications (having played 70 games over the last two seasons or 40 games last season and be under contract) to meet the two-forward quota, so whoever the GM Dale Tallon wants he can have without having to consider other expansion criteria. With the free agent status of Jaromir Jagr up in the air, the leadership value of Jokinen and MacKenzie must be considered by a young Florida team. However, MacKenzie has not scored more than 20 points in a season since 2010-11 and is likely not of interest to Vegas and can be left unprotected. So who of Jokinen, Smith, and Sceviour will join him in the Draft? The 25-year-old Smith has the best chance to be the best producer for the longest amount of time in Florida. This also could be a way for the Panthers to dump the five-year, $25MM extension they signed him to last summer before it even begins. As he did with the Boston Bruins, Smith had a great first season with Florida in 2015-16, but just as he did in Boston, Smith fell off significantly in year two. The Panthers will have to re-sign Bjugstad and Marchessault and give non-entry level deals to Denis Malgin, Jared McCann, and others before that contract expires. Can they afford the weight of a $5MM annual cap hit for an average player? If Smith has scared them off, expect them to expose him and hope Vegas takes the risk. If not, it comes down to Jokinen and Sceviour. Again, the 33-year-old Jokinen has the leadership and experience and is just one year removed from a 60-point season. Sceviour can’t boast that kind of career production, but at $950K to Jokinen’s $4MM and Smith’s $5MM, he gets the Panthers more bang for their buck.
Defense is the real nightmare for Florida. Keith Yandle‘s No-Movement Clause makes him automatically protected, though he would be protected regardless after signing a seven-year deal last year that began with a nice 41-point season. Aaron Ekblad is also as close to a sure thing as their is in the Expansion Draft as far as protection. The 2015 Calder Trophy-winner struggled a bit last season, but is still a top pair defenseman at just 21 years old. That leaves defensive spot left in the 7/3 scheme and three stalwart defeseman to choose from: Jason Demers, Alex Petrovic, and Mark Pysyk. Unfortunately, unless circumstance change, Demers is out of the equation. With Yandle and Ekblad protected and Petrovic and Pysyk as restricted free agents, Demers is the only defenseman on the roster who can meet the 70-40 quota. It is possible for Florida to re-sign and expose Petrovic, Pysyk, or impending unrestricted free agent Jakub Kindl and then protect Demers, but their hesitation to do so yet seems to imply that they won’t be. Thus, Demers will be exposed and stands a very high chance of playing in Vegas next season. As for Petrovic verus Pysyk, both are similar in age and have great ability, but little to show for it on the score sheet early in their careers. The Panthers brass know best which 25-year-old fits best on the team, and likely both will remain in Florida, but don’t be surprised if they give the homegrown talent Petrovic the nod.
Projected Protection List
Scheme: 7F/3D/1G
Forwards
Jonathan Huberdeau
Vincent Trocheck
Aleksander Barkov
Nick Bjugstad
Jonathan Marchessault
Jussi Jokinen
Colton Sceviour
Defensemen
Keith Yandle (NMC)
Aaron Ekblad
Alex Petrovic
Goalie
Every team has a few risks that they must take in the Expansion Draft. As extraordinarily unlikely as it is, losing Luongo would be a blow and would cause the Panthers to have to change their off-season priorities to focus on helping Reimer in net. Smith being selected could come back to bite them if his $25MM deal pays off in Vegas. Being stripped of their captain would be rough on the locker room and they will likely hold out hope that there is no interest in MacKenzie. Having Pysyk taken from them after he was the centerpiece of last summer’s Dmitry Kulikov trade would feel like a waste.
So what sets Florida apart? Exposing Demers barely qualifies as a risk. The 28-year-old was one of the prizes of free agency last summer and just finished the first season of a relatively affordable five-year, $22.5MM deal. He scored 28 points this season, the second best campaign of his career and a level of production closer to that of his time back with the San Jose Sharks. He also has seen a steady climb in shooting percentage as the years have gone on and could easily break double digits next season, regardless of where he plays. However, the best thing about Demers for the Golden Knights is that he is a safe pick. He can lead their defense, can easily play 20+ minutes per night, can hit and block shots, and is signed long-term, meaning he can become a franchise player and potentially the team’s first captain. Unless the Panthers go 8-skaters or extend a current qualifying defenseman to then protect Demers, they face a real risk of losing a very solid player for nothing after just one year.
Florida Panthers’ Potential Targets
The Florida Panthers were expected to do far better this past season than they ultimately did. Not unlike their Floridian rivals, the Tampa Bay Lightning, many were looking to this franchise to dominate a week Atlantic division. Looking back on a season with a coaching change, losing streaks, an lots of turmoil, how does the team recover and adjust their roster going forward?
Florida’s offensive core as of this moment consists of Aleksander Barkov, Jonathan Huberdeau, and Vincent Trocheck, with Nick Bjugstad, Reilly Smith, and the surprising Jonathan Marchessault feeling content in their roles. Their defensive core is essentially just Aaron Ekblad, with a decent if unremarkable group surrounding him. Keith Yandle has looked adequate but nowhere near worth his $6.35 MM contract, locked in until 2023. Unfortunately, that contract looks like an albatross that is there to stay. Jason Demers was solid if unremarkable, and the group as a whole struggled with consistency. With Thomas Vanek likely to look for a payday elsewhere, a declining Jaromir Jagr, and a brutal internal cap, it bodes questioning whether Florida will be able to compete for a playoff spot next season. Their youngsters performed above offensive expectations, with the notable exception of Huberdeau. Barkov, Trocheck, and Marchessault all broke 50 points. Yet the team still finished 14 points out of the playoffs, giving up .46 more goals than they scored in an average 60 minute game.
Florida needs to spend a moderate amount of money to acquire solid 3rd-line point producers. Minor league callups can fill the gaps on the fourth line to an extent, but rolling with only two viable offensive forward groups is a recipe for disaster in today’s NHL. They absolutely need a game-changer up front to provide run support for the young core. They might also look to bolster their D. Here are some potential targets the Panthers should consider for 2017-18, instead of spending precious dollars on the fading Jagr:
F – Ilya Kovalchuk – UFA/KHL
As mentioned by colleague Holger Stolzenberg, Ilya Kovalchuk is a definite possibility for Florida. They have the cap space to accomodate the sort of money he will be looking for, and they have a talented young group that could easily compete for a playoff run given the right moves. There are few players more dynamic with the puck on their stick than Kovalchuk. His savvy and remarkably consistent point production would be tailor made for the Panthers team in need of a true #1 threat as Barkov continues to progress. Jagr is that no longer, but replacing his insight and experience would be difficult to do. Kovalchuk hits all the checks in terms of need for Florida, and would help launch them back into the playoff conversation single-handedly.
D – Dmitry Kulikov – UFA
Kulikov had an absolutely awful season for the Buffalo Sabres, but he would be a very cheap reclamation project for his old stomping ground. He didn’t exit the Panthers with a good performance, either, posting only 17 points in 2015-16 and a terrible 46.8 Corsi For Percentage. Kulikov had one year remaining with the Sabres at $4.3 MMl, and posted a 5 points and a -26 through 47 games. And yet, he was part of the group that propelled the team into the post-season and a Game 7 that could’ve gone either way. He’s a smooth skating 26 year-old defenseman who moves the puck with a decent offensive hockey IQ. He makes mistakes in his own zone, but he pushed the pace of the game in a way that is difficult to replace. His contract would be dirt-cheap and there is always the possibility he finds his groove back in the Sunshine State.
F – Matt Duchene – Colorado Avalanche
Matt Duchene is another talented player who had a truly down year. Duchene was rumored to be moved for months, but come deadline, GM Joe Sakic didn’t find the pieces he was looking for. In Florida, there is a definite fit if the Panthers are willing to take the risk. They have the defensive pieces the Avalanche would want in return, and Duchene would provide another dynamic offensive force to a struggling offense. Sakic is almost certain to pull the trigger eventually, so the Panthers GM will simply need to be persistent. Duchene can set up plays with the best of them when he is on his game. His speed and infectious energy would also fit in well with the group of youngsters down south.
F – Justin WIlliams – UFA
WIlliams is almost certain to be a top commodity in a weak UFA class. However, his wealth of playoff experience would come in quite handy for this team and hasn’t showed signs of slowing down. He would add an element of grit to the lineup, as well, rounding out their offense. He would be a wonderful mentor for the likes of Barkov, Trochec, and oothers. He can slot up and down the roster and is practically a lock to score at least 20 goals as a 35 year-old. If the Panthers find their way into the first round, a player of his mold would be certainly welcome in close contests. The main obstacle to this getting done is of course the price, which may prove too steep for a team in rebuild, low-cost mode. He also could want term at this stage of his playing career, and that could be a risky proposal if longer than 2 or 3 years.
Morning Notes: MacArthur, Jagr, Darling
Ottawa’s Clarke MacArthur is day-to-day following an injury sustained in the second period of Game 2 versus the New York Rangers. MacArthur took a rather routine, if tough, hit from New York captain Ryan McDonagh. MacArthur appears to have gotten his hands up to absorb some of the high body check, but with MacArthur’s recent history, another concussion is always the fear. MacArthur missed the bulk of this and last season (8 games combined) to lingering concussion symptoms, and would likely have been a finalist for the Masterton had he not been on the same squad as goalie Craig Anderson. The 32 year-old left winger had dealt with quality-of-life issues and was forced to even contemplate retirement. Although coach Guy Boucher did not express major concern, Senators fans will certainly be holding their breath in hopes that nothing serious was sustained. As Boucher said, “it’s something he had last game and he aggravated today” – whatever it was, he had already played through once. It’s difficult to see a coach taking chances with concussion symptoms in this day and age, with this player – even in the playoffs. Whether he returns for Game 3 or at all this series is up in the air.
- As expected, the Carolina Hurricanes organization will attempt to sign Scott Darling to a contract as soon as they are able. The Hurricanes took a bit of a gamble in acquiring an impending UFA for a 3rd-round draft pick. Certainly they have the inside track with regard to signing the goaltender, but there is every possibility he could choose to test the market. His phenomenal season as the backup in Chicago would certainly attract a few suitors, and by heading to July 1st, he only improves his leverage. Carolina was already in a pickle as to which goaltender they would protect. If Darling signs before June 18th, the team would expose both Cam Ward and Eddie Lack in the expansion draft, which could be quite financially beneficial. If they cannot sign him before that date, they could choose to leave Darling unprotected. It’s unlikely that Vegas would opt to choose a UFA who is seemingly holding out (considering they would have a limited negotiation period), but he might be one of the few UFAs that would be intriguing enough for them to roll the dice.
- Jaromir Jagr‘s agent is expected to meet with Florida Panthers management in hopes of negotiating a new contract. The 45 year-old future Hall of Famer has played for 8 separate franchises, but has spent his last 3 seasons in the sunshine state. Dale Tallon, newly re-instated, has nothing but praise for the tough, creative winger. This season, however, Jagr showed signs of slowing down, literally and figuratively. He posted a career low 16 goals and personally substandard 46 points. The totals were still good for 4th on the team, behind youngsters Vincent Trocheck, Aleksander Barkov, and Jonathan Marchessault. Jagr has repeatedly expressed his desire to keep playing until his body fails him, even proclaiming the goal of playing until the age of 60. Jagr will likely be able to find a fit for next season in Florida if his salary demands aren’t too excessive.