Nick Bjugstad

Deadline Primer: Florida Panthers

February 15, 2019 at 2:00 pm CDT | by Zach Leach Leave a Comment

With the trade deadline fast approaching, we continue our look at the situation for each team over the coming weeks. Where do they stand, what do they need to do, and what assets do they have to fill those needs? As we continue with the Atlantic Division, here is a look at the Florida Panthers.

For all the talk of the Florida Panthers trading for Artemi Panarin and/or Sergei Bobrovksy, it doesn’t really make much sense. The Panthers are 11 points back of a playoff spot and don’t seem to have the makings of late-season run like in 2017-18. The team doesn’t need Panarin and Bobrovsky this year, they want them for the future. Luckily, both are slated to be unrestricted free agents this summer. The rumors of Florida’s interest may very well be true, but they will take their shot in the off-season.

No, the truth this season is that the Panthers are pure sellers and that’s it. The team entered the campaign with high expectations and have failed to perform up to the level many assumed they would. Florida has the talent in place, but simply couldn’t put it together this year. They will sell off what they can, tweak the roster this summer, and likely enter next year with high expectations again.

Record

24-24-8, sixth in the Atlantic Division

Deadline Status

Seller

Deadline Cap Space

$11.67MM in full-season cap hit, 1/3 used salary cap retention slots, 43/50 contracts per CapFriendly

Upcoming Draft Picks

2019: FLA 1st, PIT 2nd, EDM 3rd, FLA 4th, MIN 4th, PIT 4th, FLA 5th, FLA 6th, FLA 7th
2020: FLA 1st, FLA 2nd, FLA 3rd, FLA 4th, FLA 5th, TOR 5th, FLA 6th, FLA 7th

Trade Chips

The Panthers already made a major trade this season, sending Nick Bjugstad and Jared McCann to the Pittsburgh Penguins for Derick Brassard, Riley Sheahan, and a package of picks. While a second-rounder and two fourth-rounders is a nice get for Florida, this deal is still only half done. Barring an unexpected extension of either player, both Brassard and Sheahan are impending unrestricted free agents brought in as pieces for Florida to flip before the deadline. Expect the Panthers to shop both aggressively.

Yet, even prior to that trade the Panthers had UFA pieces ready to move. Veteran bottom-six forwards Troy Brouwer, Micheal Haley, and the recently-waived Jamie McGinn are all up for grabs. Defensemen Bogdan Kiselevich, Julian Melchiori, and Chris Wideman, another player acquired earlier this season, are depth options on the block as well. None of these players will return much to Florida, but if they’re able to trade all or most of them, it will result in a nice bundle of mid- to late-round picks or project prospects, which never hurts.

The team has already refuted reports that Jonathan Huberdeau is available, but the same might not be true for several other Florida players with term or team control. Mike Hoffman has been a great fit for the Panthers and is on pace for a career year offensively. However, he has just one year left on his contract and would be more highly-valued on the market now as opposed to this off-season or next season. The same can be said for Evgenii Dadonov, who has quietly been a dominant presence in Florida but will be due a significant raise after next season. There isn’t a great chance that either player is moved, but it’s certainly possible. More likely, albeit for a significantly lesser return, is that the Panthers move on from an aging RFA defender like MacKenzie Weegar or Ian McCoshen, if there’s a market. Neither has developed the way the team had hoped and it seems unlikely that they’re both back on the roster next year.

If the Panthers can figure out some way (read: retained salary) to move James Reimer, they will. The Reimer-Roberto Luongo tandem experiment has not worked out, as evidenced by the teams purported interest in Bobrovksy. Florida does not want to buy out or bury Reimer if they can trade him. Some team in need of a backup may be willing to make a deal if the Panthers eat a chunk of his $3.4MM cap hit over two more seasons. Sadly, Reimer has been the better of the two goalies this season and Luongo’s contract is basically immovable.

Five Players To Watch For: F Derick Brassard, F Riley Sheahan, F Troy Brouwer, D Bogdan Kiselevich, D MacKenzie Weegar

Team Needs

1) Prospect Defensemen: The Panthers’ biggest needs are a starting goaltender and top-four defenseman; they won’t be getting those at the deadline. However, those needs are reflective of a team defense that is simply horrid. Not a single player on Florida’s roster has a positive plus/minus following the trade of Bjugstad. No other team in the NHL can claim that unfortunate mark. This has to change if the Panthers ever want to improve. Looking ahead, the team is missing that top defensive prospect who could come in and make an impact without being yet another defensive liability. While Florida has some promising forwards in the pipeline, they should target a high-upside blue liner if possible.

2) Draft Picks: Do the Panthers really need draft picks? No. This team wants to retool in the off-season and try to compete again next year, rather than rebuild. However, when most of your deadline pieces are depth players on expiring contracts, the best you can do is maximize your draft pick return. Those picks could then be used on prospects, but also traded away for immediate help as well. If the Panthers can’t pry a top prospect – preferably a defenseman, but a forward is fine – for Brassard, look for the team to target another second-round selection this year to replace their own and pair with Pittsburgh’s.

Metropolitan Notes: Holtby, Bjugstad, Niederreiter

February 2, 2019 at 5:57 pm CDT | by Holger Stolzenberg 4 Comments

The Washington Capitals finally broke their seven-game losing streak, but there still is plenty of concern on whether the Stanley Cup champions can re-establish themselves as top candidates to re-capture the title this season. While many point to fatigue as the team played a lot of extra games in the playoffs last season, there are even bigger concerns, including the goaltending.

Perhaps one of the biggest area of concern, according to The Athletic’s Scott Burnside (subscription required) is the play of their goaltending, most particularly the play of Braden Holtby, who is posting another disappointing regular season. Despite an impressive Stanley Cup championship run during the playoffs, Holtby struggled during the regular season with a 2.99 GAA and a .907 save percentage. This year has been even more disappointing as the veteran has a 3.10 GAA and a .905 save percentage. He ranks 19th, among goalies with 20 or more appearances, at even-strength save percentage with a .918.

“The goalies have just lost it here,” Capitals general manager Brian MacLellan said. “They’re flailing away at it, letting in bad goals at bad times, stuff like that.”

Seth Rorabaugh of The Athletic (subscription required) writes that the impressive play of Pittsburgh Penguins’ newly acquired center Nick Bjugstad could eventually bring about head coach Mike Sullivan’s dream of spreading out Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Phil Kessel over three lines. The belief is that the additions of Bjugstad as well as Jared McCann should open up multiple possibilities on offense which neither Derick Brassard or Riley Sheahan did. “Nick Bjugstad is a guy that’s shown an ability to score in this league,” Sullivan said of a player whose career season of 2014-15 saw him score 24 goals and 43 points in 72 games. “He’s a 45- to 50-point guy. He has more upside, he’s still young. He brings more size to our team and a whole lot of skill.”
News & Observer’s Chip Alexander asks the question ’What was Paul Fenton thinking?’ when referring to what so far looks to be a steal of a trade when the Carolina Hurricanes acquired Nino Niederreiter from Fenton and the Minnesota Wild for Victor Rask. Niederreiter has sparked the team with five goals in five games as the team has gone 3-1-1 in that span, including a big victory over Vegas Friday, while Rask has just one assist in Minnesota over four games. Niederreiter seems to have found a home on the team’s first line next to Sebastian Aho and veteran Justin Williams.

Atlantic Notes: Larkin, Point, Brassard, Condon

February 2, 2019 at 4:29 pm CDT | by Holger Stolzenberg 3 Comments

The Detroit Red Wings pulled off a big overtime win over the Toronto Maple Leafs Friday, but suffered an even bigger loss when star center Dylan Larkin had to leave the game in overtime while trying to chase Mitch Marner. He was doubled over and appeared to hurt his rib cage.

Fox Sports John Keating reports that coach Jeff Blashill said that Larkin will miss one to two weeks with a strained oblique muscle, although the team is hoping he will only miss one week. He has already been ruled out for tonight’s game against Ottawa. Andreas Athanasiou is expected to replace Larkin at center on that line.

Larkin has been a key player for the struggling Red Wings. He is having a career-year as he already has 22 goals, just one shy of his career-high and is close to being a point-per game player.

In a mailbag article, The Athletic’s Joe Smith writes that Tampa Bay Lightning soon-to-be restricted free agent Brayden Point has made it quite clear that he wants to remain in Tampa Bay for a long time and the scribe suggests that the team might be best offering a five-year deal which might be the perfect compromise between a bridge deal and an eight-year pact. Both sides have agreed to put off contract talks until the summer. With 30 points goals and 65 points already in 51 games, the 22-year-old should receive quite a bump in pay when signing his new deal.
Even though the Pittsburgh Penguins were able to get their new acquisitions Nick Bjugstad and Jared McCann into their game Friday by giving them a police escort from the airport to the game, the Florida Panthers didn’t do the same thing. The Panthers, who acquired Derick Brassard, Riley Sheahan, three draft picks and future cap room from Pittsburgh earlier in the day Friday, opted to go without the pair Friday and are expected to have the two in the lineup Saturday against Vegas, according to Sun Sentinel’s Wells Dusenbury “I didn’t find out [about the trade] until about 11 [am],” Boughner said. “We were planning on having a different lineup in there tonight and so we built the lineup with what we had and unfortunately [Brassard and Sheahan] couldn’t get in for the game.”
The Ottawa Senators continue to be without goaltender Mike Condon, who the team placed on waivers on Oct. 31 who had and still is trying to come back from a hip injury, according to Bruce Garrioch of the Ottawa Sun. The veteran goaltender cleared waivers, but has appeared in just one game for the Belleville Senators in all that time. Condon has recently started skating and working out in Ottawa, but there remains no timetable for his return. The hope is that he can make a return to the ice for Belleville March. The team acquired goaltender Anders Nilsson to be their backup goaltender on Jan. 2, who has fared well in eight appearances for Ottawa with a .922 save percentage, meaning that Condon will have a tough time getting back into the goaltending rotation, barring injury.

Pittsburgh Penguins, Florida Panthers Complete Four Player Swap

February 1, 2019 at 11:27 am CDT | by Gavin Lee 19 Comments

The Pittsburgh Penguins have found a taker for Derick Brassard, and filled their third-line center role in the process. The team has sent Brassard, Riley Sheahan, a 2019 second-round pick (PIT), and two 2019 fourth-round picks (PIT & MIN) to the Florida Panthers in exchange for Nick Bjugstad and Jared McCann. Neither team will be retaining any salary.

Pittsburgh had been looking to ship Brassard out all season, as the veteran forward just never fit into a role with the team. Acquired last season from the Ottawa Senators, Brassard has registered just 23 points in 54 regular season games with the Penguins, and contributed just four points during the team’s early playoff exit last spring. That wasn’t enough given the opportunity he was given to play alongside Phil Kessel, and he’ll now find himself in the Florida sun for the time being. Don’t count on Brassard staying there long though, as his pending unrestricted free agency isn’t attractive for a Panthers team that is likely to miss the playoffs.

Flipping Brassard to another contender could help the Panthers keep collecting picks while opening up cap space, the biggest asset they’ve gained in this transaction. Florida is expected to take a run at both Artemi Panarin and Sergei Bobrovsky in the offseason—or perhaps even sooner—and Bjugstad wasn’t providing enough to justify his $4.1MM contract. The big center has had trouble staying healthy throughout his career and has just 12 points in 32 contests this season. McCann meanwhile has 18 through 46 games but still hadn’t really established himself as a key member going forward.

That’s exactly what the Penguins will hope happens for both players, as they prepare for another run at the Stanley Cup this season. Pittsburgh is now just three points behind the New York Islanders for first place in the Metropolitan Division, but will have to fight tooth and nail to hold off the rest of the group fighting for their spot. Even with the Washington Capitals and Columbus Blue Jackets on long losing streaks, all three Metro playoff spots are undecided.

It’s important to note how close the Penguins have now pushed up to the salary cap ceiling, as it will be difficult to make any additional moves without sending money the other way. Pittsburgh is close to getting Justin Schultz back from long-term injured reserve, and would no longer have the room to add someone like Micheal Ferland who they have been linked to extensively. That might not matter though, as Bjugstad brings plenty of size to a lineup that was looking to add muscle for a stretch run. The 6’6″ forward isn’t an overly physical player, but can use his strength to get pucks out of traffic and create chances for himself and teammates. He’s expected to start at center for the Penguins, though has plenty of experience in Florida on the wing as well.

Three picks are a hefty price to pay for Pittsburgh, given that they spent a good bit on Brassard just last year, but the team is in clear win-now mode with Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Kessel all still able to compete at a high level. There will come a point where the team struggles to graduate any players from their prospect system, but they’ve shown in the past to be excellent college and undrafted free agent recruiters to fill those gaps.

Florida meanwhile has now restocked some of the draft picks they had traded away in recent years. At one point this season they were without any selection in the second or third rounds, but now will select six times in the first four and could get even more by flipping these expiring contracts. For a team with a good young group of players and now plenty of cap space in the summer, the Panthers are a team to watch on the trade market over the next month and near June’s draft.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Atlantic Notes: Bjugstad, Athanasiou, Karlsson, Callahan

July 10, 2018 at 5:30 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 4 Comments

Panthers forward Nick Bjugstad has long been in trade speculation but nothing has come to fruition. Even though his name has popped up in the rumor mill once again as of late, his agent Ben Hankinson told Michael Russo of The Athletic during an interview on KFAN (audio link) that it’s unlikely that his client winds up being dealt:

“I’m pretty close with their GM, Dale Tallon, who’s a big Nick Bjugstad fan. Even the last couple of years hasn’t been, numbers-wise, as productive for him so there was a lot of talk. A couple of years ago too. And it’s the same teams: Montreal, Pittsburgh was looking, the Wild have always been in the mix. So every time I go to Dale, he says, ‘Not a chance, Hank. There’s not a chance we’re trading him. I love him.’”

The 25-year-old adapted well to being shifted to the wing with Florida and posted a career year offensively with 49 points (19-30-49) in 82 games. However, given Bjugstad’s size and ability to play down the middle, the Panthers are assuredly going to continue to field interest in him but it doesn’t appear that they’re willing to deal him just yet.

Atlantic Notes: Bruins, Barkov, Canadiens

July 7, 2018 at 5:53 pm CDT | by Holger Stolzenberg 6 Comments

While the Boston Bruins added a couple of small, but important pieces to their team this offseason in goaltender Jaroslav Halak and defenseman John Moore, their two biggest Atlantic Division rivals seem to be working at a much bigger scale. The Toronto Maple Leafs have already successfully signed superstar center John Tavares to a long-term deal, while the Tampa Bay Lightning are trying hard to acquire superstar defenseman Erik Karlsson.

Those two moves (although nothing is definite about Karlsson going to Tampa) suggest that maybe Boston isn’t doing enough to improve their own team. The team looks like they lost veteran Rick Nash who is still trying to decide if he intends to return to the NHL and hasn’t added much to their forward core this season. No doubt Boston general manager Don Sweeney is trying to work the trade market in hopes of picking up a Jeff Skinner or Artemi Panarin. However, NBC Sports Joe Haggerty writes that there is nothing wrong if the team can acquire such a player, but the team needs to stay the course and not overreact to the whatever the Maple Leafs or Lightning do.

Haggerty writes the team had a plan at the end of the season and they need to stick to it, which means the team must hold onto their talented young players and not consider moving them for big-name players. The team already had a plan in place in hopes to upgrade its team, using prospects and pieces such as Torey Krug and Anders Bjork. However, the team also needs to keep their elite young players like Charlie McAvoy and Jake Debrusk, because they will need them to stay with the organization for the next decade. The team shouldn’t panic and attempt to grab a big-name player if it will cost them their long-term future.

The Florida Panthers could be making major shakeups in their lineups next season, according to Matthew DeFranks of the SunSentinel. With the addition of more talent this season, including Mike Hoffman and a host of young talent, coach Bob Boughner has a lot of option for loading up his top line which features star Aleksander Barkov. The talented center has spent much of the last three years playing alongside Jonathan Huberdeau and Evgeni Dadonov, who arrived last season. However, with Hoffman and how well forward Nick Bjugstad played on the top line at times last season, it’s likely Barkov could get all new linemates next season, giving the team more depth on both their second and third lines.
Brendan Kelly of the Montreal Gazette writes that the Montreal Canadiens have done nothing to get better this offseason. The scribe writes that when you finished the season as the 28th worst team in the league, you need to make big changes. Instead, the team’s biggest trade of Alex Galchenyuk for Max Domi didn’t make the team better, especially since most experts believe that Arizona won the deal, but at best it’s a wash. Then the team’s biggest free agent signing was bringing back Tomas Plekanec, who isn’t the same player he once was and since he spent the majority of the season with Montreal last season, also can’t be anything more than a wash as well. The scribe also points out that if the team was rebuilding then they wouldn’t have tried so hard to go after Tavares or Paul Stastny this offseason. It just looks like another down year in Montreal.

NHL Snapshots: Kadri, Sanheim, Matheson, Jaros

October 8, 2017 at 7:44 pm CDT | by Holger Stolzenberg Leave a Comment

Toronto Maple Leafs center Nazem Kadri is entering his ninth season of playing NHL hockey and for the first time ever, the 27-year-old broke the 30-goal plateau last year. Yet the center who feeds Patrick Marleau and Leo Komarov, believes he can do it again, according to Jonas Siegel of The Athletic (subscription required).

Siegel analyzes whether Kadri can, in fact, accomplish his boast. He writes that Kadri has one major asset that’s in his favor — to have a key role on one of the best power play units in the league, which he does. He scored 12 of his 32 goals last year on the power play, which was eighth in the league. Now with Marleau around added to the team’s arsenal, Kadri could very likely accomplish that feat.

However, one other thing that Siegel points out is that Kadri has learned a lot after having played in more than 400 games. His experience has taught him where to set up in front of the net, how to anticipate a scoring opportunity and quick reactions.

Sam Cardichi of Philly.com writes that Philadelphia Flyers’ Travis Sanheim will likely stick with the Flyers for the time being after a bounce-back game against the Anaheim Ducks. Unfortunately, that means that 22-year-old defenseman Samuel Morin will likely be sent down to Lehigh Valley soon, despite a strong preseason and receiving three healthy scratches in the team’s first three games.
NBC Sports Adam Gretz breaks down the Florida Panthers future salary cap situation after the team locked up defenseman Michael Matheson to an eight-year, $39MM contract Saturday. He writes the team now has nine players who are signed through the next four seasons, of which six are 25 years or under and they total $47.3MM combined. The group of Aaron Ekblad, Jonathan Huberdeau, Aleksander Barkov, Vincent Trocheck, and Nick Bjugstad lead their youth movement, while they also have Keith Yandle, Roberto Luongo and James Reimer locked up. However, Gretz writes that since the team doesn’t have any upcoming big contracts to hand out, the team will have a significant amount of cap space to fill out their roster with even more talent, suggesting that the Panthers are heading in the right direction.
Along with the recall of Thomas Chabot, the Ottawa Senators also recalled defenseman Christian Jaros on Sunday. The 21-year-old defenseman came over from Sweden just this year and has played in just two games for the Belleville Senators, picking up one assist. He and Chabot will fill in for all the team’s defensive injuries.

Florida Panthers To Give Tippett Every Chance To Make Team

July 9, 2017 at 11:32 am CDT | by Holger Stolzenberg Leave a Comment

Since taking back control of the Florida Panthers franchise in April, general manager Dale Tallon has been busy reshaping his roster this offseason after the team failed to make the playoffs this past year. He unloaded young wing Reilly Smith and his large contract to Vegas along with soon-to-be unrestricted free agent Jon Marchessault to remove future cap problems that likely would have arisen. He handed out a one-year deal to free agent scorer Radim Vrbata to make up for some of that goal scoring and brought back former Panther Evgeni Dadonov from the KHL on a reasonable three-year deal. He also re-signed penalty killing defenseman Mark Pysyk to a three-year deal. However, his focus has been on building a team around its youthful core, including Jonathan Huberdeau, Aleksander Barkov, Vincent Trocheck, Nick Bjugstad and defenseman Aaron Ekblad, all who are 24 years of age or under and already locked up long-term. However, the Panthers might be ready to add another name to that list.

The Panthers seem ready to give their 2017 first-rounder Owen Tippett every chance to join their young team immediately, according to NBC Sports Adam Gretz. After an impressive showing at their development camp, Tallon was quick to point out that Tippett will be given every opportunity to make the squad this year.

“He’s going to get every opportunity,” said Tallon (via the Panthers). “I don’t have any problem and [head coach Bob Boughner] and our coaching staff don’t have any issues playing young guys. We’re building a team that’s going to be around for a long time and we’ll give him every opportunity to play this year.”

Tippett, who is a pure scorer, would fill a major need as many of their top players are playmakers rather than goal producers. The 18-year-old is coming off a season in which he scored 44 goals for Mississaugua Steelheads in the OHL last year. He was ranked as the seventh-best North American skater by NHL.com.

Expansion Primer: Florida Panthers

May 28, 2017 at 12:52 pm CDT | by Zach Leach Leave a Comment

Over the next few weeks we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, and which will likely warrant protection or may be on the block. Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4pm CDT on June 17th. The full rules on eligibility can be found here, and CapFriendly has provided a handy expansion tool to make your own lists.

After cracking 100 points and winning the Atlantic Division in 2015-16, injuries and overall under-performance sent the Panthers tumbling back to Earth in 2016-17. Florida finished with over 20 points less, at 81, good enough for sixth in the division and a top-ten draft slot. Yet, hopes remain high in Sunrise, FL as the Panthers are still a team built around young stars that has just begun to reach its potential. With Huberdeau, Trochek, Barkov, Bjugstad, Ekblad, and Matheson forming a core group under 25 with top prospects like forwards Henrik Borgstrom and Adam Mascherin and goalie Sam Montembeault still on the way, Florida only has to worry about adding complementary pieces to a talented young group.

Yet, the shadow of the Expansion Draft still looms large over the Panthers. With so many good, young players under contract, the expansion process will not be easy for the Cats. They may be able to protect their best young players, but they are nearly guaranteed to lose a solid complementary veteran.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards
Jonathan Huberdeau, Aleksander Barkov, Reilly Smith, Vincent Trocheck, Nick Bjugstad, Jussi Jokinen, Derek MacKenzie, Colton Sceviour, Jonathan Marchessault, Steven Hodges, Michael Sgarbossa, Graham Black

Defense
Keith Yandle (NMC), Aaron Ekblad, Jason Demers, Alex Petrovic, Mark Pysyk, MacKenzie Weegar, Reece Scarlett

Goaltender
Roberto Luongo, James Reimer

Notable Exemptions

Jared McCann, Denis Malgin, Michael Matheson, Ian McCoshen

Key Decisions

The Panthers don’t have an easy decision to make at any position group. They face the risk of losing a prominent forward, defenseman, or goalie if they don’t read the Vegas Golden Knights correctly. Perhaps the biggest name who may be left unprotected in net: potential future Hall of Fame goalie Roberto Luongo. Many were surprised when the Panthers brought back Luongo, and with him the remainder of a 12-year, $64MM contract, in 2014. Even more were surprised when, nonetheless, Florida signed James Reimer to a five-year, $17MM contract on July 1st of last year. That move seems like it has partly been leading up to this point. While Luongo and Reimer each started 39 games in 2016-17 with very similar records, Reimer had the edge on Luongo in performance statistics. While this was their first season sharing the net, it is now the second season in a row in which Reimer has outplayed Luongo. It seems very unlikely that Florida will choose to protect the 38-year-old Luongo, who is under contract at $5.33MM per year until the age of 43, over the 29-year-old Reimer, with a more reasonable $3.4MM cap hit over that same span of time. Luongo will thus likely be one of the biggest names under contract and available to Vegas, but don’t expect a new team to take on that contract. Should they expose Reimer instead, the chances are much higher that the Knights will select a Panther goalie, but chances are both keepers are back in Florida next year regardless.

Among the forward corps, there is a lot to sort out. To get the easy ones out of the way, young scorers Jonathan Huberdeau, Vincent Trocheck, Aleksander Barkov, and Nick Bjugstad are almost surely safe. Assuming the Panthers go with the 7/3 scheme, that leaves them with three forwards left to protect. If they do go 8-skaters, then those four would represent all the protected forwards. After a breakout campaign in which he led the Panthers with 30 goals, 26-year-old Jonathan Marchessault is also highly likely to be protected. This leaves just two spots left for four valuable veteran forwards: Reilly Smith, Jussi Jokinen, Colton Sceviour, and captain Derek MacKenzie. Luckily for the Panthers, all four meet the qualifications (having played 70 games over the last two seasons or 40 games last season and be under contract) to meet the two-forward quota, so whoever the GM Dale Tallon wants he can have without having to consider other expansion criteria. With the free agent status of Jaromir Jagr up in the air, the leadership value of Jokinen and MacKenzie must be considered by a young Florida team. However, MacKenzie has not scored more than 20 points in a season since 2010-11 and is likely not of interest to Vegas and can be left unprotected. So who of Jokinen, Smith, and Sceviour will join him in the Draft? The 25-year-old Smith has the best chance to be the best producer for the longest amount of time in Florida. This also could be a way for the Panthers to dump the five-year, $25MM extension they signed him to last summer before it even begins. As he did with the Boston Bruins, Smith had a great first season with Florida in 2015-16, but just as he did in Boston, Smith fell off significantly in year two. The Panthers will have to re-sign Bjugstad and Marchessault and give non-entry level deals to Denis Malgin, Jared McCann, and others before that contract expires. Can they afford the weight of a $5MM annual cap hit for an average player? If Smith has scared them off, expect them to expose him and hope Vegas takes the risk. If not, it comes down to Jokinen and Sceviour. Again, the 33-year-old Jokinen has the leadership and experience and is just one year removed from a 60-point season. Sceviour can’t boast that kind of career production, but at $950K to Jokinen’s $4MM and Smith’s $5MM, he gets the Panthers more bang for their buck.

Defense is the real nightmare for Florida. Keith Yandle’s No-Movement Clause makes him automatically protected, though he would be protected regardless after signing a seven-year deal last year that began with a nice 41-point season. Aaron Ekblad is also as close to a sure thing as their is in the Expansion Draft as far as protection. The 2015 Calder Trophy-winner struggled a bit last season, but is still a top pair defenseman at just 21 years old. That leaves defensive spot left in the 7/3 scheme and three stalwart defeseman to choose from: Jason Demers, Alex Petrovic, and Mark Pysyk. Unfortunately, unless circumstance change, Demers is out of the equation. With Yandle and Ekblad protected and Petrovic and Pysyk as restricted free agents, Demers is the only defenseman on the roster who can meet the 70-40 quota. It is possible for Florida to re-sign and expose Petrovic, Pysyk, or impending unrestricted free agent Jakub Kindl and then protect Demers, but their hesitation to do so yet seems to imply that they won’t be. Thus, Demers will be exposed and stands a very high chance of playing in Vegas next season. As for Petrovic verus Pysyk, both are similar in age and have great ability, but little to show for it on the score sheet early in their careers. The Panthers brass know best which 25-year-old fits best on the team, and likely both will remain in Florida, but don’t be surprised if they give the homegrown talent Petrovic the nod.

Projected Protection List

Scheme: 7F/3D/1G

Forwards

Jonathan Huberdeau
Vincent Trocheck
Aleksander Barkov
Nick Bjugstad
Jonathan Marchessault
Jussi Jokinen
Colton Sceviour

Defensemen

Keith Yandle (NMC)
Aaron Ekblad
Alex Petrovic

Goalie

James Reimer

Every team has a few risks that they must take in the Expansion Draft. As extraordinarily unlikely as it is, losing Luongo would be a blow and would cause the Panthers to have to change their off-season priorities to focus on helping Reimer in net. Smith being selected could come back to bite them if his $25MM deal pays off in Vegas. Being stripped of their captain would be rough on the locker room and they will likely hold out hope that there is no interest in MacKenzie. Having Pysyk taken from them after he was the centerpiece of last summer’s Dmitry Kulikov trade would feel like a waste.

So what sets Florida apart? Exposing Demers barely qualifies as a risk. The 28-year-old was one of the prizes of free agency last summer and just finished the first season of a relatively affordable five-year, $22.5MM deal. He scored 28 points this season, the second best campaign of his career and a level of production closer to that of his time back with the San Jose Sharks. He also has seen a steady climb in shooting percentage as the years have gone on and could easily break double digits next season, regardless of where he plays. However, the best thing about Demers for the Golden Knights is that he is a safe pick. He can lead their defense, can easily play 20+ minutes per night, can hit and block shots, and is signed long-term, meaning he can become a franchise player and potentially the team’s first captain. Unless the Panthers go 8-skaters or extend a current qualifying defenseman to then protect Demers, they face a real risk of losing a very solid player for nothing after just one year.

Golden Knights Notes: Expansion Draft Targets, Gallant, Yakupov

May 20, 2017 at 10:00 am CDT | by Glen Miller 2 Comments

The NHL purposefully designed the rules regarding the expansion draft to give the league’s newest member the best possible chance to compete right away. Teams have two options in terms of whom to protect from their current roster: they can either choose to protect seven forwards, three defensemen and a goalie or they can go the alternate route of eight skaters and one goalie. Any player with two seasons or less of experience playing professional hockey in North America are exempt. Undoubtedly, many teams will confront some tough choices when it comes to whom they potentially lose to the Golden Knights later next month.

Rob Vollman, writing for ESPN.com, examines who among the four Stanley Cup semi-finalists Vegas GM George McPhee is most likely going to garner significant interest from the veteran hockey executive. From the reigning champion Penguins, Vollman suggests that unless the club can convince Marc-Andre Fleury to waive his NMC and subsequently trade him to another club looking for a #1 between the pipes, one of Pittsburgh’s goaltenders would be the best choice for McPhee and the Golden Knights. However, should the Penguins proactively move one of their ’tenders – almost assuredly Fleury – prior to the expansion draft, Vollman suggests blue liner Brian Dumoulin as the best choice given his penalty killing prowess and ability to play solid defensively.

According to the scribe, Anaheim, barring some shifty maneuvering, may risk losing Josh Manson or Jakob Silfverberg to their new division rivals. Manson, as a right-hand defenseman who can move the puck and plays with bite, would be an excellent addition for Vegas.

Because of their defensive depth, Nashville will likely choose to protect eight skaters, with four being blue liners. This means the Golden Knights will probably have their pick from a group which includes forwards Calle Jarnkrok, Craig Smith and Colin Wilson. Ultimately, Vollman thinks Jarnkrok would be the sensible choice given his affordable cap hit ($2MM annually through 2021-22) and his strong two-way play.

Given the lack of proven goal scorers likely to be available to McPhee in the expansion draft, Vollman wonders whether Vegas could be convinced to take the onerous contract of Bobby Ryan off of Ottawa’s hands. Ryan, who has five years – at which point the winger will be 35 – and an annual cap charge of $7.25MM, has struggled since joining Ottawa four years ago and finished with just 13 goals in 62 contests this past season. However, he has played better in the playoffs recording five markers and 14 points in 16 games. Vollman doubts McPhee would take that hefty contract on without the Senators offering them further incentive to do so but also notes the $7.25MM price tag would make it much easier to reach their targeted floor of $43.8MM in salaries. And at 30, there is hope Ryan can provide at least a few seasons of solid offensive production for a club who will likely struggle to put the puck in the net.

In other Golden Knights news:

The Golden Knights have done well in hiring veteran coach Gerard Gallant to be the franchise’s first bench boss, at least if some of his former charges and current contemporaries are correct. NHL.com’s Brian Hedger penned an article on Gallant, who is currently an assistant with Canada’s entry in the 2017 IIHF World Championship, which included quotes from Michael Matheson and Nick Bjugstad, who each played for Gallant in Florida. Matheson, a young defenseman who rejoined Gallant on Team Canada for this tournament, said: “He’s a tremendous coach and I loved my time with him. He just gives his players a lot of confidence. He realizes that you’re going to make mistakes but that it’s not the end of the world. He’s just going to put you back onto the ice because he has confidence in you.” For his part, Bjugstad said: “He’s one of my favorite coaches ever,” and indicated he was well-liked in the room in Florida. “Everyone respected him. He had a young team with us, and it didn’t take him long to kind of push us to that next level, the next step. There’s no reason he can’t do it with the next team.” Tampa Bay head coach Jon Cooper also offered up strong praise for Gallant: “I think it’s a great get for Las Vegas. I got to meet Gerard at the [World Cup of Hockey 2016], and that’s a big reason he’s here with us today. He’s extremely knowledgeable about the game, the guys play hard for him and I think he’ll do a [great] job in Vegas.” Gallant’s ability to help develop young players and earn the respect from his charges should do him well in his new position. While the Golden Knights will have access to quality NHL talent via the expansion draft, the organization will still likely rely on building with youth through the draft and it may be a few seasons before they are ready to compete regularly for the postseason.
With the probable lack of proven goal scorers available to Vegas in the expansion draft, the club will likely look for other ways to add offensive talent to the organization. The Golden Knights have already inked free agent center Vadim Shipachyov, a skilled Russian who was expected to draw significant interest from several NHL clubs this summer. He may well slot in as the team’s #1 center to begin the season. But, as talented as Shipachyov might be, he is more of a playmaker than a goal scorer and Vegas will have to add more talent around their new #1 pivot. Luke Fox of Sportsnet suggests that former top overall draft pick Nail Yakupov is just the sort of player Vegas should take a chance on as they search for impact offensive talent. Yakupov, who suffered through the worst season of his career with St. Louis in 2016-17, scoring just nine points in 40 games, has said he has no desire to return home and play in the KHL. Fox believes the 23-year-old winger is worth a short-term, small money deal for Vegas, or for another team starved for cheap offense, perhaps L.A. Signing Yakupov would certainly make a lot of sense for Vegas. The presence of Shipachyov could help ease Yakupov’s adjustment to the desert and provide the talented winger with the type of setup man that could help him thrive.

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