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Capitals Extend GM Brian MacLellan; No Word On Barry Trotz

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March 9th: The Capitals have officially confirmed the extension to Tom Gulitti of NHL.com.

March 4th: The Washington Capitals have signed general manager Brian MacLellan to a multi-year contract extension Saturday, according to Sportsnet’s Nick Kypreos. The next question is whether the team will extend head coach Barry Trotz as the coach is in the final year of his contract.

MacLellan has worked his way up the ladder with the Capitals having served as an assistant general manager for seven years with the organization before taking over general manager duties in 2014. While in charge, his teams have reached 100 points three consecutive years. The team’s lone issue has been its struggles in the playoffs as the team has failed to get out of the second round in each of those years.

Even this year, the Capitals are atop the Metropolitan Division this year with 81 points, despite losing a number of players due to their salary cap issues this year. The team lost several key players in the offseason, including defenseman Karl Alzner, Kevin Shattenkirk, Nate Schmidt as well as forwards Justin Williams, Marcus Johansson. Yet the team has continued to succeed with younger players and some veteran additions.

As for Trotz, there are questions whether the Capitals may move on from the veteran coach. Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman added on Saturday night’s Headlines segment on Hockey Night in Canada that the team might consider promoting assistant coach Todd Reirden. In the past, other teams have asked to interview Reirden for coaching jobs, including the Arizona Coyotes, Buffalo Sabres and the Florida Panthers.

“It’s gotten to the point where if he’s not signed soon … other teams are going to come out looking for him perhaps,” said Sportsnet’s Chris Johnston during Saturday night’s Headlines segment. “Barry’s future in Washington is very much uncertain.”

Evening Notes: Skinner, Debrusk, Ducks, Chiarot

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One of the hardest things the Carolina Hurricanes have had to deal with is finding the perfect lines, especially for winger Jeff Skinner who has played with quite a few players so far this year. Yet Friday night’s loss to the Toronto Maple Leafs may have suggested that Skinner might have finally found a perfect line as he had one of his best games alongside Derek Ryan and Justin Williams, according to The News & Observer’s Chip Alexander.

Skinner has found himself with almost everyone at different points in the season. The former seventh-overall pick in 2010 had 37 goals last year, but while he has tallied nine goals this year, has had a harder time adjusting. He has found himself playing next to Ryan, Victor Rask, Elias Lindholm, Brock McGinn, Josh Jooris, Phillip Di Giuseppe and Janne Kuokkanen.

With the combination of Ryan, Skinner and Williams on Friday, the line combined for 13 shots and two assists. “It’s a long season and things are going to change,” Skinner said. “You’ve got to be able to adapt and communicate with your linemates and try and find that success and get on a roll.”

  • Joe Haggerty of NBC Sports writes that Boston Bruins’ rookie Jake Debrusk has started to look more comfortable out on the ice after head coach Bruce Cassidy made him a healthy scratch a week ago. In four games since, the 21-year-old winger has two goals and five points and was instrumental with a pair of assists in their 4-3 victory over the Pittsburgh Penguins on Friday. “It goes back to the mentality of playing fast,” said Debrusk. “I think that was one of the focuses. And ever since I got scratched, I think that I’ve had some jump in all the games or at moments.”
  • Mike Coppinger of The Los Angeles Times writes that the Anaheim Ducks’ biggest problem is the team’s lack of speed. Obviously, the injuries to Ryan Getzlaf and Ryan Kesler doesn’t help, but the team is getting outskated. “We have fast players, too,” coach Randy Carlyle said. “I just don’t think we’re playing fast enough for 60 minutes.” The Ducks currently sit in sixth place in the Pacific Division with a 10-9-3 record.
  • Scott Billeck of NBC Sports writes that after the NHL’s Department of Player Safety handed down a $3,763.44 fine to Winnipeg Jets’ Ben Chiarot for butt-ending Anaheim’s Corey Perry, Winnipeg fans came to his defense. They have started a GoFundMe to raise the amount of money that Chiarot has been fined with the intention of donating the money to the Christmas Cheer Board, a charity that donates food and toys to children that are less fortunate during the holidays. The fundraiser has already reached half its goal as of earlier today, according to Billeck. Perry has been infamous for pestering Jets’ players for years.

July 1, 2017: An Early Retrospect

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Brian Burke isn’t one to mince words. The long-time NHL general manager who now serves as president of the Calgary Flames has uttered innumerable one-liners and catchphrases over the years, many of which are meant to entertain but none that are anything but truthful. One of his most common, was that front offices “make more mistakes on July 1 than any other day of the year.” He obviously wasn’t a fan of the free agent frenzy that happens each year as franchises rush to improve their teams.

In 2016, just a few weeks after Pro Hockey Rumors was launched, we saw an incredible number of long-term deals handed out to players that were either already in, or just past their prime. Milan Lucic, David Backes, Loui Eriksson, Kyle Okposo, Andrew Ladd, and on and on all secured huge paydays last year. Each of them have dealt with levels of inconsistency even in their first season, and still have several years of high cap hits left on their deals.

This summer though was different. The free agent cupboard was almost completely bare, save for a few aging legends and controversial defensemen. On July 1st, we saw just four free agents sign contracts that would pay them at least $4.5MM annually, and only one of them was for five years or more. Let’s take a look at those four, and see what the early results can tell us.

Martin HanzalMartin Hanzal (DAL) – Three years, $4.75MM AAV

Season stats: 11 games, 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point, -9 rating, 19 shots, 14:53 ATOI

Hanzal has been a terrible disappointment in Dallas so far, scoring just a single point while carrying some of these worst possession stats in the league. He’s currently out with a lower-body injury, but the Stars will need an immediate improvement upon his return to start recouping the money they handed out.

Dallas spent heavily in free agency this summer, signing Hanzal and Alexander Radulov while inking Ben Bishop before he hit the open market. You’re bound to miss on some of the shots you take, but at 7-6 it isn’t quite the immediate turnaround they were hoping for. Hanzal’s contract isn’t back-breaking, but it’s certainly not helping the situation.

Justin Williams (CAR) – Two years, $4.5MM AAV

Season stats: 11 games, 1 goal, 8 assists, 9 points, -3 rating, 25 shots, 17:25 ATOI

For being 36 with over 1,200 NHL games on his body, Williams looks as fresh as ever. Returning to the place where he won his first (of three) Stanley Cup, Williams has added a different dimension to the Hurricanes. Though Carolina is still off to a shaky start, Williams is tied with Jeff Skinner as their leading scorer and has been as dominant as ever five-on-five.

While it’s unlikely he’ll carry this 67-point pace through the entire season, he’s an incredibly responsible defender and has always been an opportune goal scorer. The Hurricanes are off to a shaky start, but it’s not because of the Williams addition. His contract is so reasonable that it will invariably draw trade speculation if the Hurricanes aren’t in playoff contention at the deadline. It came with trade protection in the form of a 15-team no-trade list.

Kevin ShattenkirkKevin Shattenkirk (NYR) – Four years, $6.65MM AAV

Season stats: 14 games, 2 goals, 9 assists, 11 points, -4 rating, 27 shots, 21:33 ATOI

The prize of free agency was Shattenkirk, even with a poor showing in the playoffs for the Washington Capitals. No, he’s not an outstanding defender in his own end and he won’t lead the league in hits anytime soon. What he is though is an elite powerplay quarterback that can log big minutes and provide a positive impact in the possession game.

Shattenkirk has come just as advertised, scoring more in New York than anyone not named Mika Zibanejad or J.T. Miller. His offensive game is among the best in the league, but the Rangers are struggling to keep their head above water at 5-7-2. The 29-year old defenseman could have signed a longer deal somewhere else, but wanted to help New York get over the hump. If it starts to look bad in a few years, remember that it’s so front loaded that he’ll earn just $4MM in the final year of the deal (half of which is owed as a signing bonus).

Karl Alzner (MTL) – Five Years, $4.625MM AAV

Season stats: 13 games, 0 goals, 4 assists, 4 points, -6 rating, 12 shots, 20:28 ATOI

It’s not pretty in Montreal right now with the Canadiens off to a 4-8-1 start. There are many factors that have gone into that record, but Alzner is certainly one of them. For the UFA who signed the longest deal (along with Alexander Radulov) Alzner is sure making a pretty lukewarm first impression.

Alzner’s not without redeeming qualities. He logs a ton of ice time for the Canadiens against some top competition, and is a primary penalty killer. The problem, is that Montreal’s PK is among the worst in the league and they’ve been routinely out shot when he’s on the ice at even strength. He only recently turned 29, but Montreal won’t be able to rely on him for 20+ minutes for the entire length of the contract.

Washington Worried About Filling Out Its Defense

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Decimated by losses this offseason, the Washington Capitals are focusing on rebuilding their team as quickly as possible so they can contend once again, but while there is some progress on the offense as some young players have stepped up, there hasn’t been that infusion of new talent on the Capitals’ blueline, writes Washington Post’s Isabelle Khurshudyan.

After a disappointing playoff run which ended in the second round to the eventual champion Pittsburgh Penguins, the team endured multiple losses, including Kevin Shattenkirk, Karl Alzner, Justin Williams, Marcus Johansson, Nate Schmidt and Daniel Winnik. All of the losses were due to the fact the team was up against the cap, but the team instead focused on re-signing some of their core, including extending stars Evgeny Kuznetsov, Dmitry Orlov and T.J. Oshie.

While the offense seems to have found replacements for their top lines in youngsters like Andre Burakovsky and Jakub Vrana, fixing the defense might be a totally different story, according to Khurshudyan. The scribe writes that Washington head coach Barry Trotz said that no defenseman has stood out so far into training camp to claim the final two spots in the team’s top six. Even with the losses of Shattenkirk, Alzner and Schmidt, the team still has a solid top four in Matt Niskanen, Brooks Orpik, Orlov and John Carlson. However, the team must fill in those final two spots.

Amongst those defensemen attempting to win one of those two spots is Taylor Chorney, who has been the team’s extra defenseman for the past two years. The team also brought in two of their solid AHL defenseman in Madison Bowey and Christian Djoos, who the team hopes will be ready to take on a new challenge. The team also has several others ready to take a spot, including 2016 first-rounder Lucas Johansen, Aaron Ness, Tyler Lewington, and Connor Hobbs.

Chorney has spent the last two years on the Capitals roster, but has managed to get into 73 games in those two years and just 18 last season. The 30-year-old defenseman accululated 11 points in those two years, but is trying to break the label of journeyman.

Much of their defensive hopefuls come from their AHL affiliate, the Hershey Beras. Bowey, 22, is coming off an injury-shortened season in the AHL after suffering a gruesome ankle injury with the Hershey Bears. He managed to play only 34 games, but has lost 12 pounds and is skating faster than he did a year ago. Many people thought Djoos, 23, had the best shot to make the team’s roster this year as he had a great season for Hershey a year ago. He scored 15 goals and 45 assists for 66 points for them last year. Ness has also been in the Washington system, playing the last two years in Hershey. He also managed to get called up and get into 10 games over the past two years. A quality skater, he has played a total of 39 NHL games over the course of his career. Lewington, 22, played 72 games for the Bears last season, compiling 142 penalty minutes to go with 17 points.

Johansen,19, was the 28th overall pick in the 2016 draft and many feel he might be ready to step into the team’s lineup, while Hobbs, the team’s fifth-round pick in 2015 had a breakout year with his junior team. The 20-year-old prospect, known for his hard shot, had 31 goals and 54 assists with the WHL Regina Pats.

With the team right up against the cap, a trade would seem unlikely to aid the defense. So, the team hopes that two of these defensemen will step up soon to solidify the Capitals defense.

 

 

NHL Snapshots: Johansson, Hanzal, Spezza, Tuch

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Former Washington Capitals forward Marcus Johansson said he wasn’t surprised that he found himself traded a couple of months ago to the New Jersey Devils. Despite winning another President’s Trophy, given to the top regular season team, Johansson knew that the team’s lifespan was limited and was prepared for a possible breakup. The Capitals traded Johansson, lost defenseman Nate Schmidt to the expansion draft and allowed Justin Williams, Kevin Shattenkirk and Karl Alzner all depart via free agency.

NBC Sports Cam Tucker writes that Johansson recognizes that as being part of the game and is ready to move on to a bigger role with the Devils who need scoring. New Jersey had the third-worst offense in the NHL last year at 2.2 goals per game.

“Sometimes you have to change things and we had some good opportunities to win these past two years and we didn’t take them and I think this is what comes afterward,” said Johansson. “They have to change something and guys needed new contracts and stuff like that, so that’s the way it goes. There’s nothing more to say about it.”

  • Steve Simmons of the Toronto Sun writes that the renaming of the Toronto Maple Leafs arena last week that has Scotiabank getting the naming rights for $800MM (CAD) on July 1, 2018, will have a huge benefit to the players throughout the league. He writes that half of the $40MM each year goes to the hockey-related revenue, which should have a positive influence on the future salary cap.
  • Sportsday’s Mike Heika interviewed Dallas Stars’ head coach Ken Hitchcock about the team’s center position and learned that the new coach expects to play newly acquired Martin Hanzal at center, but still hasn’t made up his mind when it comes to Jason Spezza. “To me, Hanzal is a center. The role Jason will have is a split duty role, and if I play Spezza on the wing, it will be a left wing. Jason will play a lot of center and some wing. We need to start with the puck, so he’s definitely going to be taking draws on his strong side,” Hitchcock said.
  • Las Vegas Review-Journal’s David Schoen writes that while the Golden Knights are not likely to keep any first year players (other than Vadim Shipachyov, people should keep an eye on Alex Tuch. The 21-year-old wing who was a first-round pick of the Minnesota Wild in 2014, could be a darkhorse candidate to make the team. Vegas, known for stockpiling draft picks, actually traded their third-rounder two months ago for Tuch. He scored 18 goals in 57 AHL games for the Iowa Wild and managed to play in six NHL games a year ago.

Carolina Hoping For Darling Of A Season

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Carolina have been perceived as ’winners’ of this off-season, despite accomplishing only minor upgrades on paper. Outside of signing their own RFAs, Carolina acquired Marcus Kruger and Trevor van Riemsdyk in trades. In the free agent market, they acquired the services of senior Justin Williams via UFA. Although solid acquisitions, Carolina was nowhere near a contender prior to these transactions. So to what do we attribute the grand sense of optimism in and around Raleigh?

Summarizing Adam Gretz of NBC Sports: Scott Darling. Darling was acquired back in April after the Blackhawks were eliminated from playoff contention. Subsequently, the team relieved itself of Eddie Lack’s services by offloading him to the Calgary Flames, while relegating long-time Cane Cam Ward to the backup role. Gretz rightfully spotlights Darling as a potential saviour to the team in the short-term. Darling certainly has the credentials to backstop an NHL team, as his career .924 save percentage is quite impressive. Last year, he tallied a 18-5-5 record – he seems ready to perform. Gretz also showcases the fact that Carolina allowed the second-least amount of shots against in the past three seasons (behind Los Angeles), while the goals-against-average was on the lower end of the middle pack. He points to the success of Carey Price on a middling Canadiens squad as rationale to hope for a resurgence in the standings.

Although Gretz is correct in assuming Carolina will likely improve, it doesn’t necessarily ensure a playoff berth. In the Metropolitan division, even the Islanders’ 94 points were insufficient to land the team Spring hockey. Four teams (Washington, Pittsburgh, Columbus, NY Rangers) all finished above 100 points. The Hurricanes finished with 87. Although Victor Rask and Sebastien Aho are nearly certain to have improved outputs, the competition remains fierce. The team will need to avoid multiple game losing streaks and start the season off on the correct foot. Although impressive down the season’s stretch, Carolina couldn’t clinch their first berth since 2009. If coach Bill Peters is to remain in his current position, he will need quick, inspiring success in 2017.

Although an 8-point improvement is certainly within the realm of possibility, Carolina will need to rely on health and the steady progression of its young players. Elias Lindholm and Teuvo Teravainen could both push for 20 goals, and Aho could easily become a star. If tides turn for the worse, however, expect GM Ron Francis to be proactive in his approach, despite the re-assuring words provided to Chip Alexander of the News & Observer. Francis certainly has room to be active on the trade market as well, with 8 upcoming free agents (4 UFA, 4 RFA) in 2018, and a wealth of space to maneuver. With an astounding $17.2 MM in space, it will nevertheless be difficult for Francis to successfully lobby for the acquisition of a large contract, considering the tenuous owner situation. Still, ownership should allow its GM marginal leeway in the hopes of catapulting the Canes into the the post-season. If Francis does go on the hunt for additional roster players, it would likely take the form of additional scoring or a veteran defender. Those first few months in Raleigh very well could determine the season’s trajectory, so those who are hungry for movement might look toward the tar heel state for early action.

Carolina Hurricanes Extend Phil Di Giuseppe

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The Carolina Hurricanes and Phil Di Giuseppe have come to terms on a new contract that will keep the young winger in Raleigh, or at least across the state in Charlotte, for another year. TSN’s Aaron Ward reports that Di Giuseppe has re-signed with the ’Canes on a one-year, two-way deal that will pay him $725K at the NHL level.

Di Giuseppe, a 2012 second-round pick of the Hurricanes, will enter his fourth pro season in 2017-18, but is still looking for his breakout campaign. The 23-year-old has had modest success in the NHL, but has been unable to carve out a full-time role for himself in Carolina. A former star at the University of Michigan and a consistent scoring threat in the AHL in with the Charlotte Checkers, Di Giuseppe’s skill is undeniable. A swift skater with good instincts, Di Giuseppe has complied 77 points in 144 AHL games over the last three seasons after registering 78 points in 115 games for the Wolverines. However, that scoring pace has not quite translated to success with the Hurricanes, where Di Giuseppe has 24 points in 77 games over the past two seasons. Still working to build a well-rounded game, Di Giuseppe’s ability to put up points is nothing to complain about – he could very well be a 30-point player over the course of an 82-game NHL schedule – but on a team full of young talent, Di Giuseppe has simply been unable to hold onto a roster spot due. The young forward could stand to bring a little more two-way play and special teams ability to the mix if he wants to make himself into a valuable piece of the puzzle for a Carolina team that is desperate to get back to the playoffs.

For now, Di Giuseppe is likely to be given a shot to make the NHL roster in camp, but faces an uphill battle to secure a spot with Jeff Skinner, Sebastian Aho, Teuvo Teravainen, Elias Lindholm, Lee Stempniak, Brock McGinn and now Justin Williams as the competition for a shot on the wing. Di Giuseppe seems likely to head back to the Checkers to begin this season, but must capitalize on the next chance he gets in Carolina. The scoring forward seems like he has what it takes, but has simply lacked the ability to hold on to his job for longer than 30 or 4o games in a season. We’ll see if that changes in 2017-18.

With Di Giuseppe signed, the Carolina Hurricanes have dealt with all of their restricted free agents and look to have a deep and promising lineup that is ready to go for the new season. Predicted to be one of the worst teams in the NHL in 2016-17, the ’Canes showed everyone with a season that nearly ended in a playoff berth. The young squad hopes that they can take that next step this year.

Looking Ahead To 35+ Contract Situations

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In the NHL, signing players after they turn 35-years old comes with some added restrictions and capabilities. For one, those players are now eligible for one-year contracts that include performance bonuses, a way to mitigate risk for the team while still providing opportunities for previously successful players. The big restriction though, is that the cap hit of any contract signed after 35 will stay on the books regardless of what happens with the player. Whether their bought out or retire, the team will still face the full cap hit for the entire length of the deal.

This year, we saw Colorado swallow their pride and buy out Francois Beauchemin even with this extra clause, and they will face the full $4.5MM cap hit this season. Mike Cammalleri, who is now 35 himself and was similarly bought out will not fall under this rule because he signed his contract several years ago. Only if the contract is signed after 35 does it come into effect.

With that clear, let’s look at some of the players who will be under contract for the 2018-19 season and could potentially cause their teams a cap hit without actually playing for them. Here are all the 35+ contracts that will still be active after the coming season.

Patrick Marleau – Toronto Maple Leafs

The Toronto Maple Leafs signed Patrick Marleau to a three-year, $18.75MM contract this offseason and took a substantial risk in doing so. Marleau turns 38 before the season starts, and though he has been known to keep his body in great shape throughout his career is clearly on the regular downward trajectory every player experiences. The Maple Leafs did an interesting thing to reduce some of their risk however, by front-loading Marleau’s contract and paying nearly the whole thing out in signing bonuses. Patrick Marleau

On July 2nd 2019, a few months before the final season of the contract begins, Marleau will have just $1.25MM left owed to him. Though he’ll be 41 for that season, and still carrying a $6.25MM cap hit, he’ll be a near-free option for a team struggling to hit the cap floor. That’s assuming he’s not still effective and the Maple Leafs want to keep him around, though they will be paying their young players like Auston Matthews a good chunk of the cap and may need the room. Marleau does have a no-movement clause, but if he’s set on retiring anyway it likely wouldn’t matter to him if his contract was traded.

Justin Williams – Carolina Hurricanes

Williams signed a two-year deal with the Hurricanes to return to the place he won his first Stanley Cup, and he comes with very little risk for the club in terms of retirement. Still a very effective scoring option, last season Williams actually registered his highest goal total since his days in Carolina a decade ago. It’s hard to see how he would fall so far in 2017-18 to make him think retirement was the only option.

That said, there is always a chance that a 35+ player could fall off a cliff production wise or just reach a point in his life that he wants to move on from hockey. If he did that next summer, the Hurricanes would be on the hook for a $4.5MM cap hit with no player to show for it. Luckily, the Hurricanes are one of those cap floor teams and an empty hit like that would pose no issue to their salary structure. They’d rather have an effective Williams in the lineup, but this deal came with almost no risk.

Ron HainseyRon Hainsey – Toronto Maple Leafs

Here come the Maple Leafs again, who handed out two multi-year deals to 35+ players this offseason. Hainsey comes fresh off a Stanley Cup victory with the Pittsburgh Penguins in his first taste of the playoffs, and will be expected to log difficult minutes in Toronto to take some pressure off their young group. His two-year, $6MM deal also comes front loaded should the team need to move him next summer.

Hainsey will be 38 when the contract expires, and some have already started to point out his deficiencies as the years roll on. With the Maple Leafs having to make decisions on James van Riemsdyk, Tyler Bozak, William Nylander and Leo Komarov next summer, any further decline from Hainsey could be a problem. With no buyout relief available, the Maple Leafs would likely have to bite the bullet and keep him around through the end of the deal.

Alex Burrows – Ottawa Senators

It took a two-year extension from the Ottawa Senators to get Burrows to waive his no-trade clause at last year’s deadline, and that number will be tough to watch for the team should he continue his rapid decline. For a player who once scored 35 goals in a season, Burrows had just 24 the last two combined. While he did show some better jump in the Ottawa lineup, the team has several young players who will deserve more playing time over the next couple of seasons.

$2.5MM isn’t the end of the world, but when you’re a team who works on a tight internal budget like the Senators every dollar can mean a lot. Without the buyout option and the risk of Burrows hanging it up, that $2.5MM could haunt them next summer. Luckily, it will expire before the team needs to shell out the dollars for Erik Karlsson, who will be eligible for extension next offseason but won’t have his expected record-breaking deal kick in until 2019-20.

Ryan Miller – Anaheim Ducks Ryan Miller

Anaheim took a risk handing out a 35+ contract to Miller, but there doesn’t seem to be any sign of him wanting to retire just yet. He’s now closer to his offseason home with actress Noureen DeWulf, and $2MM per season to backup John Gibson seems like a perfect scenario 37-year old goaltender. Even though he could suddenly turn ineffective, their faith in Gibson and his similar inexpensiveness (he’s owed just $2.3MM in each of the next two seasons) covers their back.

Derek MacKenzie – Florida Panthers

The two-year extension the Panthers gave their captain last summer was a surprising one, if only because you don’t usually see players of his stature receive a guaranteed contract a year before they’re due for one. MacKenzie signed his first 35+ contract, but it comes at such a small cost—$2.75MM total over two years—that it poses little risk. The team wouldn’t need to buy him out, and even if he were to hang up his skates next summer they would have plenty of cap room. Besides, the Panthers have had great success with 35+ contracts in the past—just ask Jaromir Jagr.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Oshie Contract A Huge Gamble

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When the Washington Capitals opted to re-sign T.J. Oshie to a $5.75 MM AAV for the next seven years, the hockey world was rightfully befuddled. Most expected Karl Alzner, Justin Williams and Oshie to depart, while the team locked up Evgeny Kuznetsov and retained other important pieces. Some anticipated the possible exposure or dumping of Brooks Orpik and his $5.5 MM for the next two seasons. Instead, the Capitals decided to pay the 30 year old Oshie to an extraordinarily long deal.

Oshie has indeed been one of the best wingers in the game over the last few seasons. He’s broken 50 points each of the last four campaigns, and his production on the powerplay has been incredibly valuable in maintaining high-octane offense. He’s also performed admirably in the post-season on a team where quite a few other individuals have fallen short. 22 of his 31 post-season points have come with Washington in just the last two years. That said, he will be 37 at the conclusion of this deal. It’s almost unheard of to maintain the production or speed you had at 30 when you are 37. Oshie’s decline could come as soon as the next few seasons. Oshie easily could have gotten this term on the open market as the best available winger, but is it wise to invest so heavily in this particular player?

In an off-season where many teams opted to go with shorter-term on unrestricted free agents, Oshie’s contract stands out as a future potential albatross. But how much will it impact Washington’s window? Well, the short answer is that we won’t know until the team finds itself playing games next spring.

Oshie’s signing, in conjunction with the Kuznetzov signing, forced the movement of Marcus Johansson from the roster. Johansson actually scored more points than Oshie last year, and his game is more well-rounded. Oshie’s Corsi For % has consistently declined over the last two seasons in Washington, Johansson’s has increased. Although Oshie has greater creativity and flash, Johansson has been a consistent performer of late, and had two years remaining on a very reasonable $4.58 MM contract. Perhaps more importantly, Johansson is four years Oshie’s junior. On a team that will need to fill gaps internally, going with the younger player is not often the wrong decision. Especially with losing both Nate Schmidt and Alzner on the backend, they will need younger players to contribute at every position in relief this season.

Ultimately, this decision will be judged in terms of post-season success. Still, when the team has lost two top-six wingers and a top pairing defenseman, it’s hard not to question the management’s handling of the situation. Alex Ovechkin and crew are still looking for a conference finals berth, and taking such steps backwards in the Metropolitan Division can only draw fire from an increasingly frustrated fanbase.

Free Agent Profile: Jaromir Jagr

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Not many believed that Jagr would be left without a contract over a full week into July. While many Florida fans believed GM Dale Tallon was looking to impress his vision on the franchise in an aggressive way, a return at a reduced cost seemed possible. Barring that, Jagr was sure to draw interest from offense-starved squads. He was listed as our 13th best available UFA for a reason, and yet, there’s been little to no chatter on the Czech star.

Jagr has seen a dip in his value, undeniably. He scored 11 less goals than the previous season; that said, he’s still a lock for 40 points. He’s slowed down quite noticeably, and one can only imagine that is the crux of his issue in attracting suitors. His vision and hands are still world-class, but his speed is an encumbrance to whichever line he’s on. That said, he’s a positive impact player in terms of analytics and fancy possession stats. If you look at his HERO chart (a handy bar-graph representation of advanced stats such as shots suppressed and generated), he performs well above the “prototypical” second-liner. No one in the analytics community seems to understand how such a consistent performer can be left unclaimed at this date. People constantly criticize players like Jagr for poor defensive qualities. There is an element of truth to these claims, as he is certainly hustling harder going north than south. But results, and actual goals against for his lines over the years, show that perhaps he knows something we don’t.

The game is changing, and with faster teams heading deeper into the playoffs, Jagr’s ability to fend off attackers and maintain a cycle is less valuable than it was previously. More rush play, more dump and chase, and less east-west movement through the neutral zone is the way many teams are hoping to push the pac and tilt the ice in their favor. Signing Jagr doesn’t fit that trendy ideology, and that’s the main holdup at this juncture. The amount of teams who are willing to slow the game down, even just on special teams, are becoming fewer and fewer. Ultimately, he will find a home, but it could be a drastic reduction in pay and icetime. Jagr was already getting acclimated to a sheltered role with short shifts, but he may be even more of a utility skater in his new home.

If for nothing else, Jagr is a magician on the powerplay and can pass the puck with ease. He would be a wonderful asset merely as a leader, whose experience and off-ice attributes would benefit the growth of younger players.

Potential Suitors

We originally projected that Jagr would return to the Florida Panthers, as we also believed would be the case for Thomas Vanek. We were wrong on both fronts, as Dale Tallon has opted instead for a massive roster shakeup. Jagr quipped on Twitter that he had no calls this July 1st, although that claim may merely be an attempt to garner greater interest.

A New Jersey reunion might be in the cards. They finished 29th in goals for and Jagr could be relegated to 3rd-line duty with a healthy roster after all of GM Ray Shero’s shuffling. He’s certainly not going to lead the team in scoring, but in the tough Metro division it’s difficult to see them making the playoffs anyway. In what should be a year to build upon, and with multiple youngsters (Nico Hischier, Pavel Zacha) looking to cement themselves in the league, what better role model than Jagr to provide leadership and calm? The team could also do to add NHL proven forwards – they have the second fewest organizational contracts at 33, and many are not ready for prime-time.

Although they’re not the ideal landing spot, the New York Islanders seemingly always need a little extra fire power. They too have the disadvantage of trying to survive in the high-flying Metro, and Tavares could use another piece on the powerplay to bring it back to respectability (they finished with a 15% conversion rate in 2016-17). Again, his leadership abilities on a relatively young squad would provide a good example. He can also still manufacture chances on his own, and outside of Tavares, the team still struggles with that for long stretches. Pair him with one of their many two-way forwards, such as Josh Bailey, and his minimal defensive shortcomings won’t be as impactful. Cap room on an internal basis is an issue, but Jagr is getting cheaper by the day.

Many teams could take a flier on a one year deal. At 45 years-old, it would be highly unlikely to make a significant commitment to him. Arizona and Colorado could both certainly use the offensive help, but they both moved on from their own free agent old-timers in Shane Doan in Jarome Iginla, so both seem unlikely. Carolina already added a greybeard in Justin Williams, but scoring depth couldn’t hurt there. Vancouver is already incredibly old, so why not double down at this point and help out your special teams? And there’s always the possibility that Jagr finally decides to take a paycut to chase after a final championship. It has been since 1992 for him.

Expected Contract

Jagr will continue to wait away in free agency limbo for some time. This may be his final contract, but it’s difficult to determine how important competitiveness of the team will be to him. I think he stays in the East, namely New Jersey, for one year at a measly $1.75 MM. It won’t delay the rebuild, which is necessary in Newark, but it will keep the team just above water in the division. I’m not certain Shero wants to gamble on a total tank, as we saw how well that worked for Colorado in the recent draft. They ultimately need proven forwards to round out the roster, and the price is right to buy low.

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