At the beginning of the 2025-26 season, it seemed like a foregone conclusion that the Pittsburgh Penguins would trade Erik Karlsson and use Anthony Mantha as a half-year rental before dishing him at the trade deadline. Now, according to Josh Yohe of The Athletic, the Penguins want both players on their opening night roster for the 2026-27 campaign, if not longer.
Before this season, Karlsson looked like a shell of himself, far removed from the Norris Trophy campaign during the 2022-23 season with the San Jose Sharks. From 2023 to 2025, Karlsson scored 22 goals and 109 points in 164 games with a -20 rating, averaging 23:45 of ice time per game. Additionally, his 87.2% on-ice SV% at even strength last season was the worst of his career.
Although that’s typically respectable production from a puck-moving defenseman in his mid-30s, it didn’t justify his $11.5MM salary, $1.5MM of which was being paid by the Sharks. It was particularly his drop-off defensively that had the writing on the wall in Pittsburgh.
However, under head coach Dan Muse, Karlsson has found new life. He’ll finish with similar point totals this year, but he’s been much more responsible in the defensive zone. His 53.8% CorsiFor% at even strength is the best he’s had since he was 28, and his 89.7% oiSV% at even strength is right on line with his career average.
According to Yohe, instead of trading Karlsson this offseason, the Penguins may look to extend him for a few more years. It would be an interesting gamble, given that Karlsson will be 37 for his next contract. However, if he maintains his production level and assumes a significantly lower salary, it might not be a bad idea.
Meanwhile, Mantha has made the most of his one-year, $2.5MM prove-it deal in Pittsburgh. After losing much of the 2024-25 season due to an ACL injury, Mantha has rebounded in a big way, scoring 26 goals and 52 points in 67 games for the Penguins.
Furthermore, as Yohe points out, Mantha is only 31, meaning he’s not necessarily old by NHL standards. It’s unlikely that the Penguins will engage in a bidding war if Mantha makes it to the open market this summer, but a four-year deal shouldn’t be out of the question given how he’s played this season.
Regardless, as much as the influx of youth has benefited Pittsburgh this season, its top five scorers are in their 30s. They’re a primary reason that the Penguins are poised for a postseason run for the first time since the 2022 Stanley Cup playoffs.
I think Mantha is going to get PAID. Weak FA class, rising cap… someone’s going to give him a big deal. He’s earned it this year as a strong contributor and not just on the scoresheet. They should definitely want him back, but I don’t think the right move is expanding the core to include another big contract for a player over 30. Say thanks and wish him well, and then sign a few more reclamation projects to compete with the young guys coming up. Try to create the same problem in the next offseason.
3×7, absolutely. 5x$9M…
Yep. Look, Pittsburgh was playing with house money this year, and they’ve gotten younger: Brazeau, Dewar, Chinakov, Skinner, all steps in the right direction.
But it’s still an ancient team, and they’re still far too reliant on too many increasingly brittle greybeards. How about they don’t worry yet about extending Karlsson — who is still signed for another year? How about they don’t go bonkers concerning Mantha, whom I agree is going to get overpaid by someone?
What Dubas absolutely should be doing, instead of signing the Manthas of the world to big money contracts, is use that immense draft capital to pick up 20-somethings who are already signed to longer term deals. Pittsburgh has FIFTEEN 2nd and 3rd rounders over the next four years. If (for instance) Toronto is dumb enough to be shopping Matthew Knies, why not dangle a first and a couple 2nds at them? It may be an overpay, but that’s an overpay the Pens can readily afford.
Hey NHA, maybe you should look at their roster situation too. They have A LOT of FA’s and spots to fill this coming year and next.
Off their current roster: Chinakov, Mantha, Malkin, Koivunen, Dewar, and Acciari at FW. Shea, Solovyov, and Clifton at D. Both Skinner and Silovs at G. Thats just this year. Add in next year… Sure some AHL guys will come and go, but that’s a lot of turnover especially with a weaker FA class to turn it over with.
Yeah, and we all know the tendency of most of the GMs in the league is to overpay for those FAs. Another reason why the Pens should be using that horde of picks to go after the young stars already tied up longterm — especially where cash-limited teams need to clear cap space.
4×8 then? Hmmm…
Well, It sounds like Dubas Is headed for more solid decision making, And, Nobody should be surprised, He’s built some solid NHL teams.
Yeah, that Jarry trade and Chinakov trade really blew up in his face.
Dont bother with Wilf/this weeks new name. He knows better than anyone on this site and will be the next big shiny GM in any league he likes to share his expertise with.
The Muse hire was a jackpot
PIT is one of the more interesting stories going into this off-season, but expectations are rising & Dubas can’t have another off-season of moves like signing Tristan Jarry and Ryan Graves if he wants to drag this team back into real playoff contention.
He also cant have a season where 3/4’s of the team turns over thru free agency in 2 years like he has this and next year. He did very well this season. Not sure if he can continue it for 2-3 more seasons while many players MAY age out.
Agreed. I’ve said before: Where Dubas decides to deploy his $$$ for actual long-term deals will be the difference between him advancing to true Wonderkid status or devolving back into the guy who gives chunky contracts to declining talent. Time will tell.
Most pro sports teams succeed with a bit of continuality within their starting roster. Too much turnover causes some time for players to create a repertoire with eachother. Same can happen with coaching staffs when it happens between seasons. Some get a big boost when it happens in season for some reason.
I would try and sign both of them again,Im sure we could do a sign and trade for Mantha , I dont see Dubas letting anybody go without assets back.
The only incentive for players in a sign and trade that is they can get an extra year and I don’t see anyone giving Mantha 8 years. Dubas isn’t getting any assets for him, unless he can trade his rights prior to 7/1
Can’t extend Mantha. As good a fit as he is, it just doesn’t line up.
EK has been great but why not let him play out another year of the deal and then decide.