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2019 NHL Draft Lottery Date And Odds Revealed

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The date of the NHL Draft Lottery, what fans of the 15 teams who don’t make the playoffs wait for, has been announced and those fans won’t have to wait very long this season. The NHL has revealed that the lottery will be held on Tuesday, April 9th this season. The lottery has typically taken place much later in the month, but instead will come just three days after the end of the regular season this year.

As usual, the league notes that the lottery will take place in Toronto and will be nationally televised by NBC Sports, Sportsnet, and TVA. As opposed to last year, when the lottery took place over two separate sessions during playoff game intermissions, the event will return to being an independent hour-long show, beginning at 8pm ET.

As for the lottery odds, the league has opted not to change the odds that they used for last season’s draft lottery. The odds have frequently changed from year-to-year in the past, sometimes as a reaction to the results of the draw or, in last year’s case, to accommodate the addition of an added lottery team. However, after a draw last season that saw both the team with the worst record – the Buffalo Sabres – hold on to the top pick, as well as an exciting leap up the board by the Carolina Hurricanes, it seems the NHL is content to stick with it’s current format. Below are the odds at winning the first overall pick for each of the final spots in the league standings:

31st: 18.5%
30th: 13.5%
29th: 11.5%
28th: 9.5%
27th: 8.5%
26th: 7.5%
25th: 6.5%
24th: 6.0%
23rd: 5.0%
22nd: 3.5%
21st: 3.0%
20th: 2.5%
19th: 2.0%
18th: 1.5%
17th: 1.0%

Each team’s odds at the No. 2 and No. 3 pick increase marginally after the first ping pong ball is selected. To explore these odds further or to run some simulations, check out this Lottery Simulator from Tankathon.com. As for draft lottery story lines to keep an eye on, the Colorado Avalanche continue to be the team to watch. As holder’s of the Ottawa Senators’ first-round pick, the Avs are likely to have the best odds at picking first. However, they themselves may also be a lottery team, which would only further increase their odds at the top pick and may even land them two top-four picks in the coming draft. The specific player “won” by the lottery winner is also becoming a more intriguing discussion; initially believed to be USNTDP standout center Jack Hughes beyond a doubt, there are now some rumblings that Finnish winger Kaapo Kakko could be the preference instead, mirroring the Nico Hischier–Nolan Patrick debate from two years ago. Only the team whose ping pong ball is lucky on April 9th will have to make that call, but it’s a tough decision that any club would gladly take. 

Metropolitan Notes: Mueller, Patrick, Martin, Flyers, Blackwood

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The New Jersey Devils got some good news on the injury front as defenseman Mirco Mueller was recently released from the hospital after taking a scary hit Wednesday against Calgary, which required him to be stretchered off, according to NJ.com’s Chris Ryan.

Mueller stated that the injury won’t keep him out long-term. Head coach John Hynes stated that Mueller didn’t suffer any significant head or neck injuries and Mueller would likely play again this season. Mueller has played a career-high 47 games this year, putting up a goal and 10 points.

  • With Jakub Voracek already out, the Philadelphia Flyers lost another forward as Nolan Patrick was hit in the head with a shot and is unlikely to return to the game against the New York Islanders, according to Philly.com’s Sam Donnellon. Patrick has had a rough few days as he was boarded by New Jersey’s Kurtis Gabriel Friday, which cost Gabriel a one-game suspension. No word on how serious the injury is.
  • The New York Islanders played without forward Matt Martin today, who is out with an upper-body injury. However, Newsday’s Andrew Gross reports that Islanders head coach Barry Trotz said that the injury isn’t long-term and that he was a real possibility to play today. Martin, a key bottom-six forward, has five goals and 13 points in 52 games this season.
  • One downside to the Philadelphia Flyers trading away the physical Wayne Simmonds is that teams are taking advantage of them more on the ice, according to Sam Carchidi of Philly.com. Nolan Patrick was hit hard into the boards by New Jersey’s Kurtis Gabriel, who got a one-game suspension for the hit, but the team knows it has to show that they are physical even without Simmonds around. “But we’re still the same team. We still stick together,” Travis Konecny said. “I think Simmer left a lot of that with us. He taught us young guys to stick up for our teammates.”
  • With the impressive play of New Jersey Devils goaltender MacKenzie Blackwood, the team might have an opportunity for him to compete for the Calder Trophy next season. Blackwood has appeared in 15 games for New Jersey, but with just 16 games remaining in the season for the Devils, The Athletic’s Corey Masisak writes that if Blackwood plays in 10 or fewer games, he’d be eligible for the Calder Trophy next year.

New Jersey’s Kurtis Gabriel Suspended One Game For Boarding

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The Department of Player Safety announced that it has handed New Jersey Devils’ Kurtis Gabriel a one-game suspension for boarding Philadelphia Flyers forward Nolan Patrick during Friday’s game.

The incident happened the early minutes of Philadelphia’s 6-3 win as Gabriel hit Patrick from behind directly into the boards. Patrick did not see the hit coming. A fight ensued and Gabriel received a five-minute major for boarding. Patrick got some revenge later in the game when he knocked Gabriel to the ice with a shoulder hit.

The 6-foot-4 Gabriel has appeared in 14 games for the Devils this season, spending most of the season with the Binghamton Devils of the AHL for most of the year. He has two goals, three points and 44 penalty minutes for New Jersey this season.

Jaden Schwartz Receives Max Fine For Cross-Checking

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Cross-checking is apparently the flavor of the week for the NHL Department of Player Safety. After handing Winnipeg Jets defenseman Ben Chiarot a maximum fine for cross-checking on Monday, they have assigned the same punishment to St. Louis Blues forward Jaden Schwartz, per an announcement. Schwartz will be out $5,000 as a result of his actions, the most he could be fined under the CBA.

The hit in question was on Carolina Hurricanes defenseman Dougie Hamilton in last night’s game between the two teams, a convincing 5-2 Hurricanes win. Late in the first period, Hamilton delivered a hard, but legal check on Schwartz along the boards and Schwartz decided to retaliate with a cross-check up high on Hamilton. The decision cost Schwartz a two-minute minor right away, but has cost him even more in retrospect. It’s another knock against Schwartz in a disappointing season for the 26-year-old winger. Schwartz has just 28 points through 58 games and it could be that his offensive frustration is beginning to boil over into his checking game.

Player Safety might not be done dolling out discipline today. They have also announced that New Jersey Devils forward Kurtis Gabriel will have a hearing this afternoon in regards to a boarding penalty against the Philadelphia Flyers’ Nolan Patrick last night. So too will Winnipeg Jets forward Adam Lowry for what’s being called “high-sticking/slashing” on Nashville Predators forward Filip Forsberg. With the Devils set to face the Boston Bruins tonight, the department will likely act swiftly in their punishment of Gabriel following his hearing, while they can take more time with the Lowry decision as the Jets are off today.

Eastern Notes: Nylander, Patrick, Donato

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Since signing his six-year, $45MM contract in December, Toronto Maple Leafs forward William Nylander has found himself struggling mightily with just one goal and three points in 19 games (and a current seven-game scoreless streak). Nylander, who admitted to being in the worst slump of his career, showed up to practice this morning both clean-shaven and on a new line as the 22-year-old has been moved down to the team’s fourth line along with Frederik Gauthier and Par Lindholm, according to TSN’s Kristen Shilton.

“He’s getting in his own way. He thought things were going to come easier, and when it didn’t come, you’re pressing and then you press some more,” explained head coach Mike Babcock ahead of the Leafs’ matchup Sunday night against the Arizona Coyotes. “It’s not like he’s not trying, and it’s not like we’re not trying to help him. We’re doing all that; it’s just not going as good for him. Ideally this will allow him to take some heat off himself and get playing.”

Babcock pointed out that Nylander has always been used to being a dominant player who shoots the puck with confidence. However, the opposite of that is true as he has just six shots on goal in his last four games, and even worse, holds a minus-seven rating.

  • There has been much concern over the struggles of 2017 second-overall pick Nolan Patrick this season, especially concerning his lack of production considering a week ago, he had five goals and 11 points in 38 games. The 20-year-old has finally responded with two multi-point games in his last three, including a two-goal, two-assist performance Monday, followed by another two-goal game Saturday. Charlie O’Connor of The Athletic (subscription required) writes that Patrick’s confidence seems to be soaring and the youngster seems to be figuring things out. Patrick, who tallied 13 goals and 30 points last season as a rookie, is beginning to show his assertiveness like he did a year ago during the second half of the season.
  • The latest Boston Bruins’ player to find himself scratched was Ryan Donato, according to Matt Porter of The Boston Globe. And while many would think that he found himself in the press box due to scoring just one goal in the past 10 games, head coach Bruce Cassidy had a different reason. The coach wants Donato to work harder on his strength on the puck. Donato needs to learn how to get the upper hand on larger and stronger defenseman, something that many young players struggle to do. “It’s not like a flat tire you put air in and it gets fixed,” Cassidy said. “It takes a while. Some guys have it naturally.”

Philadelphia Flyers Issue Update On Injured Players

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The Philadelphia Flyers, win-less in their last five games, have struggled with injuries at every position this season. With 39 games under their belt already, Philadelphia approaches the midway point of the season as the last-place team in the Metropolitan Division and currently 12 points out of a playoff spot. While new general manager Chuck Fletcher has a reputation for making big trades, the team seems unlikely to be anything but a seller unless their fortunes change dramatically in the second half. Any chance of that happening thus depends on the team getting back to full health and staying that way, allowing for some consistency on the roster to yield results. The Flyers today released an update on six players currently sidelined, paired with predictions of when they might return to action.

The most pressing injury update obviously belongs to starting goaltender Brian Elliott. Elliott, out since mid-November with a lower-body injury thought to be a groin injury, has played in just 14 games this season for the Flyers. With injuries hampering Michal Neuvirth, Alex Lyon, and Anthony Stolarz (also currently out) at times this season as well, Elliott is one of six different keepers to man the Philadelphia net this season, none of whom have had much success. Elliott remains the Flyers’ top option and best chance of winning games. The team relayed that they expect the veteran net minder to finally return to action in the next 10-14 days. They also added that Stolarz, who missed almost the entire 2017-18 season due to injury, is also on the mend and should be back from his own lower-body injury within days.

On the blue line, veteran Andrew MacDonald is also struggling with a lower-body injury, but should not miss much time. The Flyers announced that he will sit for the team’s next two games, but should resume skating on the other side of the weekend. More importantly, young counterpart Samuel Morin, who has yet to play this season due to off-season ACL surgery, is finally progressing toward a return. However, a serious knee injury takes time and, while Morin is back at practice with the team, they don’t expect him to be game-ready until later in February. Up front, young center Nolan Patrick is not expected to miss much time with a recently-suffered upper-body injury. Patrick has missed the team’s past three games, but is close to being cleared and is expected to play at some point next week. Finally, Corban Knight, out since late October following surgery to repair a broke collarbone, is ahead of schedule on his initial four month timeline. Knight will be re-evaluated later this month and is expected to return in February.

The question now is whether or not the improved health of the Flyers makes a difference. Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman recently named Philadelphia as a team he expected to be active on the trade market, but acknowledged that it is still unclear whether they consider themselves buyers or sellers. Despite the poor on-ice performance, Fletcher still sees the potential in his new club and would like to improve the roster rather than dismantle it. However, if health alone isn’t enough to close the gap substantially by the NHL Trade Deadline, he may have no choice but to move out his expendable pieces. Elliott, an impending unrestricted free agent, could be a valued piece for teams with needs in net, especially if he can prove that he is back at full strength with some strong play. Neuvirth and Stolarz, who also have expiring contracts, are other potential goalie rentals, albeit less likely to move. The real value for the Flyers would come from moving several forwards, namely Wayne Simmonds, but also fellow UFA’s Michael Raffl and Jordan Weal. Whether or not it comes to that for Fletcher and the Flyers depends on the team’s play down the stretch and they hope that this upcoming return to health helps to make the difference.

Metropolitan Notes: Penguins, Orpik, Patrick

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Although the new five-year, $30MM deal the Penguins gave forward Jake Guentzel on Thursday really tightens their salary cap situation, GM Jim Rutherford told Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette that this doesn’t affect their projections for next season:

“This doesn’t put us in any cap difficulty for what our projections are and what our vision of the team is.  If you’re going to be successful in the cap world, you have to have some guys coming who are going to be at the lower end of the pay scale.”

Considering that Pittsburgh now has just over $74MM committed to just 14 players for next season per CapFriendly, they are going to be needing a lot of players at the lower end of the pay scale.  Even if the cap raises to $83MM as the league projects, that doesn’t leave much wiggle room for the Penguins to fill out a roster beyond players making close to the minimum salary.  That could certainly affect their efforts to bring back pending UFA goalie Casey DeSmith who is off to a very strong start to his season and should command a notable raise this summer.

Other notes from the Metropolitan Division:

  • The Capitals could have defenseman Brooks Orpik back as soon as Monday night, reports Isabelle Khurshudyan of the Washington Post. The 38-year-old has missed the last 26 games due to a knee injury and is currently on LTIR.  Washington will have to do some salary cap manoeuvring in order to activate him as simply sending one of Jonas Siegenthaler or Tyler Lewington back to the minors won’t be enough to get them back into cap compliance.  However, if Christian Djoos is going to be out for another week at a minimum, they can transfer him to LTIR which, when coupled with the demotion of one of their other blueliners, would be enough to be able to activate Orpik.
  • Flyers center Nolan Patrick will miss the next three games due to an upper-body injury sustained on Thursday against Tampa Bay, notes Sam Carchidi of the Philadelphia Daily News and Inquirer. His sophomore season has not gone as anyone has hoped as he has managed just five goals and six assists through 33 games, a pace that’s below his output from his rookie year.  Winger Jordan Weal is set to take his place in the lineup.

Philadelphia Flyers Could Be Ready To Make Coaching Change

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Sunday: Despite the Flyers falling 5-1 to Vancouver Saturday and the road trip being completed, there has been no coaching changes made of yet, according to Philly.com’s Sam Carchidi. The scribe writes that while a coaching change MAY happen at some point, rumors that the team has hired Joel Quenneville are not accurate. Hakstol remains the coach in Philadelphia.

Saturday: While it likely wouldn’t come as any surprise, they Philadelphia Flyers may be ready to make a coaching change. The Athletic’s Charlie O’Connor tweeted that he’s heard rumblings from key people that the Flyers may be ready to fire head coach Dave Hakstol after their road trip ends, which will be tonight after their game against Vancouver.

While Hakstol had an impressive coaching resume when he was hired back in 2015, that success hasn’t necessarily translated to the NHL. While he’s reached the playoffs twice on a rebuilding roster, the team has failed to get past the first round of the playoffs and the team has been abysmal in a season where many people felt the team was ready to compete for the top of their division. Instead, the Flyers have struggled this season, currently holding a record of 12-14-4, tied for last place in the Metropolitan Division.

The team’s struggles already cost the job of general manager Ron Hextall back on Nov. 26 and replaced soon after with new GM Chuck Fletcher, whose intention was to sit back and observe the team before making any changes. Hakstol’s chances are likely near an end, however, after the team’s recent losing streak as they have gone 3-7-3 in the last 13 games. That has included a recent string of tough losses, which started with a 7-1 loss to Winnipeg last Sunday, followed by a 6-5 overtime loss to Calgary in which the Flyers held a two-goal lead with 68 seconds left in the game and still lost. The team followed that up with a 4-1 loss Friday to Edmonton.

While the team seems to be waiting until after the road trip, that’s not too unusual. The Los Angeles Kings fired head coach John Stevens on Nov. 4 after the team pulled off a 4-1 victory over Columbus the day before, suggesting the team had already made up their mind about firing Stevens. The same could happen here. The Flyers are a team loaded with a core of top forwards, including Claude Giroux, Jakub Voracek, Sean Couturier, Travis Konecny, Nolan Patrick, James van Riemsdyk, Wayne Simmonds as well as top defenseman Shayne Gostisbehere and Ivan Provorov, but haven’t been able to put anything together. The team’s goaltending situation is a mess and likely to be one of Fletcher’s first acts as GM, to find a reliable netminder. Regardless, the team doesn’t seem to be responding to Hakstol at the moment.

Nolan Patrick Out With Upper-Body Injury

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The Philadelphia Flyers announced today that young forward Nolan Patrick will be out for seven to ten days with an upper-body injury suffered yesterday in Ottawa. Patrick played just 3:30 in the first period before leaving with the injury, one that only furthers the tough start to his 2018-19 campaign.

Selected second overall in 2017, Patrick was actually expected for quite some time to go even higher than that until several injuries ruined his draft season with the Brandon Wheat Kings. While Nico Hischier soared up draft boards in Halifax, eventually landing in the top spot, Patrick played just 33 games and was held completely out of the WHL playoffs. Still, he did make the Flyers out of camp last season and ended up playing 73 games, but didn’t have nearly the impact that Hischier enjoyed in New Jersey. In those 73 contests Patrick scored 30 points, but was limited to fewer than 13 minutes of ice time 24 times—something that Hischier experienced on just three occasions after quickly taking over as a top center option.

The comparison between the two will likely die down eventually, but Patrick hasn’t done much to quiet his critics early in the season. He’s been held scoreless in all four contest so far and before Wednesday’s short outing had registered a minus rating in every game. Though that certainly doesn’t tell the entire story, it’s obvious that the Flyers still don’t fully trust him as a top option down the middle. The fact that he’s now dealing with an injury is unfortunate given the rough start, especially as the team is also missing out on James van Riemsdyk and could use Patrick’s help on the powerplay.

Eastern Notes: Carolina GM Search, Simmonds, Islanders

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With just a 9.9 percent chance to finish in the top three, the Carolina Hurricanes beat the odds Saturday when they moved up from a team with the 11th-worst record in the league and were awarded the No. 2 pick in the 2018 draft. While that gives the franchise lots of new options that they weren’t expecting, it also makes their general manager and coaching openings much more attractive, according to Chip Alexander of the News & Observer.

The general manager position, which has been open since the team transitioned former general manager Ron Francis to President of Hockey Operations on Mar. 7, was not a popular destination after new owner Tom Dundon ousted Francis and multiple candidates declined to interview, forcing to team to announce they would wait until the offseason to address their needs. On top of that, the team then lost head coach Bill Peters when he triggered an out-clause in his contract and took the head coaching position with the Calgary Flames.

However, Alexander writes both openings are now more intriguing with the No. 2 pick as adding an impact player immediately after they take the job is always a positive. Adding a winger like Andrei Svechnikov could change the team dramatically as he would likely be the No. 1 overall pick if Rasmus Dahlin not been there.

  • NHL.com’s Bill Meltzer writes the Philadelphia Flyers have a lot of work ahead of them this offseason. To start with, the team must depend on the continued development of their youth, including Nolan Patrick, Travis Konecny, Oskar Lindblom, Travis Sanheim, Robert Hagg and Samuel Morin. However, general manager Ron Hextall intends to make many roster changes to improve the team with the idea of adding more speed, especially to the special teams. Hextall, who is known for making offseason trades, is likely to be active again on the trade market and could attempt to move winger Wayne Simmonds. While Simmonds has said he wants to stay, the team could get a good return as the 30-year-old will enter the final year of a reasonable $3.975MM deal. With plenty of youth in their system working their way up, it would seem unlikely the Flyers would extend his contract.
  • With two picks in the lottery, the New York Islanders have multiple options in front of them, writes Arthur Staple of The Athletic (subscription required). While the team could use the 11th and 12th picks in the 2018 NHL Draft to trade down and pick up a top forward, the team could also stay where they are and rebuild the team’s prospect pool, which isn’t as strong as it once was. The scribe also adds that the team could use one of the picks in a package to acquire a veteran defenseman who could help fix their leaky blueline.

 

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