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Expansion Primer: New York Islanders

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Over the next few weeks, we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, who will likely warrant protection, and which ones may be on the block to avoid the risk of losing them for nothing? Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4:00 PM CDT on July 17th. The full eligibility rules can be found here, while CapFriendly has an expansion tool to make your own lists.

In 2017, the New York Islanders were one of the few lucky teams not to lose a player in the Expansion Draft, as the Vegas Golden Knights selected free agent goaltender Jean-Francois Berube. They paid dearly for that privilege though, trading a first-round pick, second-round pick, and defenseman Jake Bischoff (as well as the contract of Mikhail Grabovski) in order for Vegas to take Berube. The team was also the only one to protect three forwards and five defensemen.

This time around, the Islanders are unlikely to pay a heavy price to keep their unprotected players from being selected in the NHL Expansion Draft and they are also expected to go with a more orthodox protection scheme. Will they lose a good player? Sure. However, two-time reigning GM of the Year winner Lou Lamoriello has left his team in decent shape as expansion approaches.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards:
Josh Bailey, Mathew Barzal, Anthony Beauvillier, Kieffer Bellows, Cal Clutterbuck, Austin Czarnik, Michael Dal Colle, Jordan Eberle, Ross Johnston, Otto Koivula, Leo Komarov, Andrew Ladd, Anders Lee, Matt Martin, Brock Nelson, Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Dmytro Timashov

Defense:
Sebastian Aho, Thomas Hickey, Nick Leddy, Scott Mayfield, Adam Pelech, Ryan Pulock, Parker Wotherspoon

Goalies:
Ken Appleby, Semyon Varlamov

Notable Unrestricted Free Agents

F Casey Cizikas, D Braydon Coburn, D Andy Greene, F Kyle Palmieri, F Travis Zajac

Notable Exemptions

D Johnny Boychuk (Inj.), D Samuel Bolduc, D Noah Dobson, D Robin Salo, G Jakub Skarek, G Ilya Sorokin, F Oliver Wahlstrom

Key Decisions

When you miss the playoffs or even exit early, it is easier to look toward the future when it comes to making difficult decisions in regards to the Expansion Draft (see: Philadelphia Flyers). However, when it comes to the Islanders, their current deep playoff run could make that difficult. The team faces several decisions in which they must choose between a top veteran or a younger future piece and must sort that out.

However, there are some no-brainers to start. In goal, the team specifically signed Appleby only to expose him, allowing them to protect starter Varlamov. On defense, the tongue-twisting top pair of Pelech and Pulock are locked in for protection. At forward, young core pieces Barzal and Beauvillier and captain Lee are also guarantees.

After that, things get difficult. The seemingly easy call is to protect their other top-scoring veteran forwards. Bailey, Nelson, Eberle, and Pageau are all key pieces to this season and playoff run and are all signed long-term. However, Bailey and Eberle will both turn 32 next season and carry expensive contracts for several more years, but have shown signs of decline in recent seasons. They will both certainly be contributors for another year or possibly longer, but are they worth losing another forward and missing out on using the cap space elsewhere?

If any of that core group of top-nine forwards is not protected, other candidates include reliable fourth liners Clutterbuck and Martin. However, the player who deserves the most consideration is young Bellows. The 23-year-old forward is a 2016 first-round pick who produced with the USNTDP, in the NCAA, the WHL, and most recently the AHL. His scoring has yet to translate to the NHL, but it seems like a safe bet. With more time and opportunity, Bellows could easily be a top goal-scorer for an NHL team. Do the Islanders risk that team being the Seattle Kraken?

One thing that is certain is that the depth up front will ensure the Islanders use the 7-3 protetion scheme. On defense, behind Pelech and Pulock, it may seem like top-scoring defenseman Leddy should be the final pick and he very well may be. After some down years, Leddy impressed this season and was invaluable to the Islanders’ success. He also plays a key leadership role as an experienced, long-time member of the team.

However, Leddy’s age and his expiring contract could make him a diminishing asset for the team. In his place, they could keep the younger, more affordable, and arguably equally valuable Mayfield. Initially more of a stay-at-home defenseman, Mayfield has rounded out his game in recent years and with that his role has increased. At $1.45MM for two more years, Mayfield is a bargain and would have a greater total impact on the team if Leddy leaves after next season, even if Leddy is the superior performer next season alone. Is that enough to make him the selection? Another outside-the-box candidate would be 22-year-old Aho, who showed potential last season but took a step back this year.

Projected Protection List

F Josh Bailey
F Mathew Barzal
F Anthony Beauvillier
F Jordan Eberle
F Anders Lee
F Brock Nelson
F Jean-Gabriel Pageau

D Nick Leddy
D Adam Pelech
D Ryan Pulock

G Semyon Varlamov

Skater Exposure Requirement Checklist

When Vegas had their expansion draft, a minimum of two forwards and one defenseman had to be exposed that were under contract and played either 40 games in the most recent season or 70 over the past two combined.  Due to the pandemic, those thresholds have been changed to 27 games played in 2020-21 or 54 in 2019/20 and 2020-21 combined.  In creating our expansion list for each team in this series, we will ensure that these criteria are met.

Forwards (3): Cal Clutterbuck, Leo Komarov, Matt Martin

Defensemen (1): Scott Mayfield

The Islanders’ current playoff run could very likely determine their approach to the Expansion Draft. If they feel strongly about their success in winning the East Division or if they are able to advance to the next round, they may feel that they are close enough to winning a Stanley Cup that they keep all of their top-performing veterans. Yet, if they win the Cup, perhaps that focus shifts back to the future and the emphasis becomes long-term assets. Either way, the Islanders will have to expose good players and after giving up a king’s ransom to Vegas in the last round of Expansion and already with a relatively shallow prospect pipeline and missing several draft picks, they are unlikely to make any side deals.

If available, a top veteran like Leddy, Bailey, or Eberle would be an easy pick for Seattle. However, assuming they are protected, Mayfield does stick out as the top option. The only issue there could be that there will be many teams who expose solid defensemen and don’t have any quality forwards available. A young, high-upside forward like Bellows may be hard to pass up. The Kraken will have plenty of options and the Islanders will lose a good player – likely their No. 4 defenseman or top forward prospect – but they will survive.

Overseas Notes: Komarov, Kadeykin, Nickl

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New York Islanders forward Leo Komarov is far from a free agent. Not only is the veteran still actively playing with the Islanders this season, who hope to have a long playoff run ahead of them as well, but Komarov also has one year left on his current deal. Yet, that hasn’t stopped European clubs from making their interest known, should Komarov be bought out by New York this off-season. After all, Komarov had landed on waivers thrice this season and has just four points in 21 games. The Islanders could easily see the upside in opening up more than $1MM in savings next season by buying out the remaining year and $3MM cap hit of Komarov’s contract. There would not likely be much NHL interest in the 34-year-old either if he hits the open market this summer, hence the push from European suitors already. Just how far has the early courting process already come? Finnish hockey insider Markus Nuutinen reports that Komarov actually has a handshake agreement in place for next season in the event he is bought out by the Islanders, but it isn’t in his native Finland. Instead, Komarov is expected to return to the KHL’s Dynamo Moscow, the same club he was with prior to beginning his NHL career back in 2012-13. There are obviously no terms available yet for this unofficial agreement, but it would come as little surprise if a Komarov reunion with Moscow does come to fruition.

  • Though most Detroit Red Wings fans have likely forgotten or are unaware of the name Alexander Kadeykin, the club is assuredly keeping tabs on him. Unfortunately, they will not have the opportunity to negotiate with the KHL forward for yet another year. Following a career year with Salavat Yulaev Ufa, in which he set new highs in goals and points, Kadeykin has signed a one-year extension to remain with Ufa, the club announced. It certainly didn’t hurt his extension chances that Kadeykin was second on the team in postseason scoring, as Ufa made it to the conference semifinals of the Gagarin Cup. Kadeykin, 27, was a seventh-round pick of the Red Wings in 2014 and since he has never made the move overseas, he remains under indefinite team control. One more year in the KHL does not completely rule out the chances that he will ever sign with Detroit, but with each passing year it grows more and more unlikely. Should Kadeykin finally decide to try his hand in the world’s top league, the 6’5″, 220-lb. center with ever-improving offensive numbers would certainly be a name to watch.
  • Anaheim Ducks defensive prospect Thimo Nickl returned to Europe this season after spending last year in the QMJHL, a decision that was likely spurred by numerous factors. The young blue liner initially signed with the U-20 club of Rogle BK, but that was a short-lived stint. After recording five points in his first nine games at the junior level, Nickl was recalled to the SHL squad and has never looked back. In fact, Rogle has been so impressed with the 19-year-old that they have signed him to a one-year extension on an SHL contract. This is unlikely to bother the Ducks at all; a 2020 fourth-round pick out of Austria, Nickl was not expected to push for a spot in the organization any time soon. Playing against pro competition in Sweden, and more so finding success, is surely a developmental path that Anaheim is content to let him follow. The next challenge for Nickl will be postseason play, with the SHL playoffs approaching and Rogle sitting pretty in second place.

Leo Komarov Clears Waivers

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March 24: As expected, Komarov has cleared waivers and can now bounce between the taxi squad and roster whenever necessary.

March 23: In what has become a monthly routine, the New York Islanders have placed Leo Komarov on waivers today according to Chris Johnston of Sportsnet. The veteran forward has already cleared waivers twice this season, once on January 13 and once on February 13, but continues to suit up and play with the Islanders. Last night he even started on the team’s first line, but if they want to move him to the taxi squad he needed to clear again since more than a month has passed.

Komarov, 34, has just two points in 16 games for the team this season and hasn’t totaled more than seven goals in a single year since the 2016-17 campaign. The bang-and-crash winger is capable defensively, but the offensive output that once got him selected to the All-Star game has completely dried up. Still, he seems to still be a favorite of head coach Barry Trotz, who inserts him into the lineup on a regular basis to add some energy.

There is almost no way that Komarov is claimed this time around given how little cap space is available around the league. The veteran forward carries a $3MM cap hit through the end of next season, a number that far outstretches his on-ice contribution. More likely is he will clear and continue to play a part-time role on the Islanders down the stretch.

Snapshots: Blue Jackets, Islanders, Stastny, Yamamoto

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The Columbus Blue Jackets were forced to trade away center Pierre-Luc Dubois, who demanded a trade. Their return was very good in Patrik Laine and Jack Roslovic, however, neither player fulfilled the team’s biggest hole — the one that Dubois left — the No. 1 center. And now, the Blue Jackets are looking for a way to fill that hole, which could be challenging, according to The Athletic’s Aaron Portzline (subscription required).

The team has a history of looking for a No. 1 center in the past as they struggled to find a top center to put next to Rick Nash. Not much has changed as the team has looked like they found their answer in Ryan Johansen and eventually Dubois. However, with Dubois gone and Max Domi playing on the wing at the moment, there again is quite a hole in the top of their lineup. However, Columbus general manager Jarmo Kekalainen said he’s looking outside the organization for help.

“We’ll keep searching and doing our job and building a team. We have some very good potential center ice men growing into that role within our team. But we’re also going to look for ways to strengthen that position from the outside.”

  • The New York Islanders are looking for some help for their third line, according to The Fourth Period’s David Pagnotta. The team is looking for a left wing they can pair with Jean-Gabriel Pageau and rookie Oliver Wahlstrom. However, the problem for New York and general manager Lou Lamoriello is that New York has little to no cap space to work with. So, in order to acquire that forward, the team will have to move out equal salary which will be challenging. Up until now, there has been no interest in Leo Komarov. According to Pagnotta, there had been some discussion of swapping Komarov for Brett Connolly, but talks stalled since Florida wasn’t willing to retain some of Connolly’s salary to make the money fit.
  • When asked in his most recent mailbag whether the Winnipeg Jets should consider trading Paul Stastny at the trade deadline, Sportsnet’s Ken Wiebe was quick to answer ’no.’ Stastny, who has moved to the wing and suddenly finds himself next to Mark Scheifele and Blake Wheeler, has played quite well in that role. With his quiet leadership and stability on the team, Wiebe believes the team will attempt to sign Stastny to a one-year extension to bring him back next year at a cheaper cost rather than trade him away.
  • Edmonton Oilers forward Kailer Yamamoto has been fined $3,854 by the Department of Player Safety for tripping Calgary Flames defenseman Rasmus Andersson. The fine is the maximum allowable under the collective bargaining agreement. The incident (video here) occurred at 14:12 of the first period when Yamamoto pulled the legs out from underneath Andersson in front of the Flames net. He was assessed a two-minute minor for tripping.

Injury Updates: Johansen, Roy, Senators, Beauvillier

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While the Predators are likely disappointed with having to have two of their games postponed as a result of the rough weather in Dallas, it did allow them to avoid having to play those contests without one of their top forwards.  In an appearance on ESPN 102.5 (audio link), GM David Poile indicated that center Ryan Johansen is questionable for their upcoming pair of games in Columbus, signaling that the veteran wouldn’t have been available against the Stars.  The 28-year-old is averaging nearly 18 minutes a game so far this season (fourth-most among Nashville forwards) but is struggling offensively with just four assists although he has been one of the better players at the faceoff dot, winning over 56% of his draws.

Other injury news from around the league:

  • The Kings are welcoming back defenseman Matt Roy to the lineup tonight, relays Zach Dooley of LA Kings Insider. The 25-year-old established himself as a top-four option for Los Angeles last season and was off to a decent start this season with three assists in eight games while averaging 18:35 per game before suffering an upper-body injury late last month.
  • The Senators will welcome back defenseman Erik Brannstrom for tomorrow’s game against Toronto, notes Postmedia’s Bruce Garrioch (Twitter link). He suffered an undisclosed injury last week that has caused him to miss the last four games.  As for starting goaltender Matt Murray, he has recovered from his neck strain and will play in one of the two games in their back-to-back stretch.
  • The Islanders activated winger Anthony Beauvillier off IR in advance of their game tonight against Buffalo, notes Newsday’s Andrew Gross. The 23-year-old had missed the last nine games after sustaining a lower-body injury last month.  Leo Komarov, who recently cleared waivers again, was sent to the taxi squad to make room for Beauvillier on the active roster.

Leo Komarov Clears Waivers

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Saturday: As expected, Komarov has once again cleared waivers, Johnston reports.

Friday: According to Chris Johnston of Sportsnet, the New York Islanders have placed Leo Komarov on waivers for the second time this year. The veteran forward cleared just before the season began, but the team needed to reset his clock in order to have the ability to place him on the taxi squad. Once a player clears, they must go through the waiver process again after spending 30 days on the active roster or playing in ten NHL games. Komarov only spent one day of the last month on the taxi squad, meaning his time was about to be up.

Frankly, it appears as though the end may be approaching for Komarov, who has failed to record a single point in six games this season. The in-your-face winger was always known for his physicality and defense, but even those skills have slipped over the last year. Once a participant in the All-Star Game, Komarov has scored just 17 goals since the start of the 2017-18 campaign, despite playing 210 regular season games over that stretch.

The fact that he is still signed through next season with a $3MM cap hit all but assures that Komarov will get through waivers unclaimed, but it is not clear where his role with the Islanders really lies.

Leo Komarov, Alex Nedeljkovic Clear Waivers

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Jan 13: Both Komarov and Nedeljkovic have cleared waivers and can be assigned to the taxi squad or minor leagues.

Jan 12: The big waiver day was yesterday, with teams putting dozens of players on the wire at the same time to prepare for the upcoming season, But the New York Islanders weren’t done there, as Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet reports that Leo Komarov has been placed on waivers today. After claiming Anton Forsberg from the Edmonton Oilers, the Carolina Hurricanes have also placed Alex Nedeljkovic on waivers.

Komarov, 33, has fallen off a cliff offensively since his early days with the Toronto Maple Leafs but is still a coach’s favorite given his in-your-face playstyle and defensive responsibility. To see him on waivers with the Islanders is something of a surprise, but certainly not much of a risk given his contract that carries a $3MM cap hit through the 2021-22 season. The Islanders are dancing a tight rope with regards to the salary cap and will gain some additional flexibility should Komarov clear. He’ll then be able to be moved at will to the taxi squad, periodically burying part of his cap hit.

Still, it seems likely that the veteran forward will get into the lineup at some point as the Islanders navigate the condensed schedule. A veteran of 457 regular season games, he played in 17 postseason contests with New York last year, scoring three points.

Nedeljkovic’s placement perhaps is even more surprising, given he was seen as the “goaltender of the future” for the Hurricanes relatively recently. The 25-year-old won the AHL Goaltender of the Year award for the 2018-19 season when he and the Charlotte Checkers took home the Calder Cup but did see something of a regression last season when he posted just a .906 save percentage in 29 minor league appearances.

Still, risking him to the rest of the league is certainly not ideal, especially if it was because of their claim of Forsberg today. While he has much more NHL experience, it still seemed as though Nedeljkovic had more upside. That is exactly the kind of reasoning a team may use to claim the young goaltender, though they would then need to carry him on the NHL squad until they can slip him through waivers themselves.

East Notes: Zibanejad, Islanders, Devils, Voracek, Marchand

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The New York Rangers have been trending upwards as they look forward to the upcoming season. However, one troubling aspect of training camp is the fact that their team leader and MVP Mika Zibanejad has missed the entirety of training camp with no explanation for his absence (standard league policy).

However, The Athletic’s Rick Carpiniello (subscription required) writes that Zibanejad did skate Saturday before the team’s practice, suggesting he might be close to returning to the team. Head coach David Quinn said that Zibanejad has “had a couple of good days.”

The 27-year-old center had a breakout season last year, scoring 41 goals in 57 games and will be looked upon to lead the team once again.

  • The New York Islanders and general manager Lou Lamoriello signed Mathew Barzal to a three-year deal early Saturday, but there was hope that the two sides could agree to a six-year pact instead, according to The Athletic’s Arthur Staple (subscription required). The two sides were discussing a deal similar to the six-year, $9.25MM contract that Colorado’s Mikko Rantanen signed last year, but the Islanders could not make that work. The hope was the team could unload the contracts of Leo Komarov and/or Thomas Hickey to free up the necessary cap room, but no team was willing to take either contract.
  • The New Jersey Devils could be looking the trade route to fill its backup goaltending spot on the roster after veteran Corey Crawford announced his retirement. The Athletic’s Corey Masisak (subscription required) writes that they might be looking towards the Arizona Coyotes, who have quite a bit of goaltending depth, including Adin Hill, who Arizona would have to pass through waivers to get on the taxi squad. That could give New Jersey a chance to trade for Antti Raanta, who is in the last year of his contract and is earning $4.25MM.
  • Philadelphia Flyers head coach Alain Vigneault is completely focused on a long playoff run this season and has sent a message to veteran Jakub Voracek, who was moved off the first-team power play in practice and was told to step up, according to Philadelphia Enquirer’s Marcus Hayes. Voracek scored just 12 goals during the regular season, but especially struggled during the Flyers’ seven-game playoff series against the New York Islanders in which he had just one point. “I talked to Jake about this. I challenged him about this season. There’s a man who’s been in the league for a long time,” Vigneault said. “Basically, he’s won two playoff rounds.” Other young players are ready to take bigger roles on the team, including Oskar Lindblom, Nolan Patrick and Joel Farabee, which could put even more pressure on Voracek.
  • Boston Bruins forward Brad Marchand, who is coming off sports hernia surgery, left practice early Sunday, according to Boston Globe’s Matt Porter. The 32-year-old was given a four-month recovery window in September, but Marchand returned early from that prognosis. While there is no word on why he left practice early, head coach Bruce Cassidy said he was getting treatment and doesn’t believe the injury is serious. He is a game-time decision for Monday’s scrimmage.

East Notes: Rask, Kapanen, Komarov

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Bruins goaltender Tuukka Rask spoke with reporters yesterday, including Boston Hockey Now’s Joe Haggerty, for the first time since leaving the bubble to tend to a family emergency.  During the discussion, he was asked about the potential of playing elsewhere as the 33-year-old is set to become an unrestricted free agent in July.  While there is no extension in place, Rask didn’t mince words about his preference:

I have no intentions of playing anywhere else except for with the Bruins. If I’m good enough to play one, two or three more years then so be it and if not then so be it. That’s where my head is at.

Rask has been a fixture in Boston’s lineup since the 2009-10 season and has suited up in 536 NHL games, all for the Bruins who acquired him from Toronto back in 2006.  His playing time has been more limited recently though so he should be expecting to take a dip from his current $7MM AAV in order to stick around.

Elsewhere in the East Division:

  • Penguins winger Kasperi Kapanen is expected to have his work visa in hand by Friday, notes Mike DeFabo of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. That’s an important hurdle to clear as he looks to join his new team after being dealt during the postseason but it still seems quite unlikely at this point that he’ll be available on opening night.  Kapanen will still have to go through a mandatory quarantine period of seven days so unless there is some sort of exception granted which seems extremely unlikely at this point, he will have to miss the first two games of the year against Philadelphia.
  • The Islanders are trying to trade winger Leo Komarov, reports David Pagnotta of The Fourth Period (Twitter link). GM Lou Lamoriello is trying to free up some extra cap room with Mathew Barzal still needing a new deal and with Komarov underachieving since joining them, he’s a logical player to try to move.  Of course, in this cap environment, an underachieving fourth-liner with two years left on his contract at $3MM is going to be a tough sell and will likely require some sort of incentive to get another team to take the 33-year-old on.  Komarov had just four goals and ten assists in 48 games last season.

East Notes: Reinhart, Komarov, Myers, Barkov

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One of the big items on new Sabres GM Kevyn Adams’ list this offseason will be Sam Reinhart’s case.  The pending restricted free agent has wrapped up his bridge contract and in doing so, he showed that his 50-point campaign in 2017-18 was no fluke.  Now just two years away from UFA eligibility, a long-term contract is going to be what both sides are likely looking for.

With that in mind, NHL.com’s Dan Rosen took a stab at trying to figure out what a good comparable would be.  He suggested Blues winger Jaden Schwartz, whose cap percentage at the time the deal was signed would translate to a roughly $6MM price tag today and next season with the Upper Limit expected to remain around the $81.5MM mark.  Buffalo has a plethora of players to sign still for next year but as a fixture in their top six, the Sabres shouldn’t have many qualms about signing Reinhart to a contract around that price tag.

More from the Eastern Conference:

  • A large group of Finnish players will be heading back to their respective club teams later this week. Heikki Miettinen of Helsingen Sanomat in Finland notes that Islanders winger Leo Komarov has leased a private plane to fly several of his NHL compatriots from Helsinki to New York in advance of training camps opening up next month.  The hope is that by doing a private flight, they will be able to avoid self-quarantining guidelines although that is not set in stone.
  • Flyers defenseman Philippe Myers has fully recovered from his fractured kneecap in March, reports Sam Carchidi of the Philadelphia Daily News and Inquirer. Prior to the injury, he was starting to carve out a bit of a bigger workload, averaging more than 18 minutes a night before going down.  Still just 23, this will be his first taste of the postseason and it will be interesting to see if head coach Alain Vigneault deploys him in a similar manner once it gets underway or if he’ll defer more to his veterans.
  • Panthers center Aleksander Barkov has purchased a stake in Tappara’s hockey program, notes George Richards of Panthers Pressbox. The 24-year-old is from Tampere and played in Tappara’s system from 2009 through 2013 before making the jump to the NHL.

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