Which Teams Would Have Flexibility In Another Expansion Draft?
Midway-through the 2017-18 NHL season, it is nearly impossible to predict what rosters could look like following the 2019-20 season, more than two years away. Trades, free agency, and much more shape teams often in ways that no one sees coming. With that said, it seems like another Expansion Draft is coming to add the league’s 32nd team, the Seattle __________, and the timeline most are suggesting is a June 2020 draft date. Like it or not, the general managers of the other 31 NHL need to be keeping that in the back of their mind with each move they make over the next two seasons.
However, it could be that some have already made decisions that could impact their roster protection plans more than two years from now. The structure of the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft will the remain the same, allowing for teams to protect seven forwards, three defensemen and one goalie or eight skaters regardless of position and one goalie from being selected. The one caveat that threw more than a few teams for a loop last June was that all players with No-Movement Clauses (NMC) in their contracts had to be protected, unless the players voluntarily chose to wave them i.e. Marc-Andre Fleury. So, with that one aspect of the expansion process in mind, it is possible to look ahead at certain long-term contracts to see, assuming those players don’t waive them ahead of time, who could be locked in for protection in 2020 or which teams will have more flexibility without any such players:
Total Flexibility
Arizona Coyotes (0) – The only NMC players on the Coyotes are defensemen Alex Goligoski and Niklas Hjalmarsson. Hjalmarsson will be a free agent in the summer of the projected Expansion Draft and Goligoski’s clause will have shifted to a Modified No-Trade Clause. Arizona will likely have complete flexibility.
Buffalo Sabres (0) – Kyle Okposo‘s NMC expires after this season and Jason Pominville‘s contract expires after next season. Buffalo won’t have any restrictions on their protection scheme as of now.
Calgary Flames (0) – There is no one on the roster with a NMC and no one that will predictably get one by the end of the 2019-20 season. Kudos to GM Brad Treliving.
Los Angeles Kings (0) – Kings’ captain Anze Kopitar in their only NMC player right now and even his clause will have shifted to No-Trade by 2020. L.A. is free and clear.
Nashville Predators (0) – GM David Poile does not seem to be a fan of NMC’s in his recent long-term deals and in the new NHL expansion era, that’s a good thing.
New Jersey Devils (0) – see Calgary Flames
New York Islanders (0) – The Andrew Ladd and Johnny Boychuk contracts already look bad for the Isles. They would be much worse if their NMC’s didn’t expire soon. With John Tavares and Josh Bailey both candidates for NMC’s should they re-sign in New York and a defense that needs a re-haul, the Islanders could lose some flexibility, but they should be fine.
Toronto Maple Leafs (0) – The Leafs have no NMC players under contract beyond 2019-20 right now. That could easily change with Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, and William Nylander in need of extensions, but Toronto should still be in a good spot. After all, those are players that would protected regardless.
Vancouver Canucks (0) – Loui Eriksson‘s NMC shifts to a No-Trade Clause following this season and will be an afterthought by 2020. It’s fortunate, as Eriksson’s tenure in Vancouver has not gone according to plan.
Vegas Golden Knights (0) – The Golden Knights didn’t sign or trade for any players with NMC’s and only drafted two – Marc-Andre Fleury and David Clarkson – who already had them and they both expire before the Knights would be set to become the NHL’s second-newest team. With that said, the current Knights’ roster will see a lot of turnover in the next two years and they may struggle to avoid NMC’s completely.
Washington Capitals (0) – GM Brian MacLellan has avoided NMC’s in any of his recent mega-deals. If he can do it again this summer in his attempt to re-sign (or replace) John Carlson, then the Caps will be in good shape for another round of expansion drafting.
Winnipeg Jets (0) – The NMC in Bryan Little‘s contract will both kick in and expire between now and June 2020. The Jets should be left with a fully flexible lineup.
Some Flexibility
Boston Bruins (2) – There’s little concern that Brad Marchand and Patrice Bergeron will still be playing at a high level in two years. Their NMC’s should be a non-factor for Boston. If David Krejci and, especially, David Backes still had their NMC’s too at that time, there would be a real logjam up front. However, both will have shifted to Modified No-Trade Clauses by then, potentially saving the Bruins from making tough decisions about their many talented young forwards.
Carolina Hurricanes (1) – As important a job as he’s had in Carolina, Jordan Staal will never be the star forward that finally puts them over the top. If his NMC causes a problem in 2020, he could easily be traded to a contender to play a complementary role. The Hurricanes need to retain as many promising young forward assets as they can in hopes of one day finding that true superstar.
Colorado Avalanche (1) – There are mixed opinions on Erik Johnson, but he has a leadership role for the Avalanche and will be key in grooming a strong crop of up-and-coming defensive prospects. The Avs won’t lose sleep about having to protect him in expansion, especially if he’s still one of their top-pairing guys in two years.
Columbus Blue Jackets (1) – The Blue Jackets were one of the biggest losers in the most recent Expansion Draft. They might be smart to sell off Nick Foligno if there’s any risk that history repeats itself.
Dallas Stars (3) – Call it optimism about his play in his first season in Dallas, but the NMC for Alexander Radulov doesn’t seem like it will be a major issue even after a couple more years. Of course, Jamie Benn‘s NMC will also be a non-factor. Ben Bishop on the other hand may not be the goalie the Stars would prefer to keep in two years. As of now, there’s no immediate competition though.
Detroit Red Wings (1) – Detroit only has one NMC player who will still be under contract in 2020-21 (and another season after that), but it’s Frans Nielsen, who has been a major disappointment for the team since coming over from the New York Islanders. He could throw a wrench in their plans if he continues his downward trend over the next two seasons.
Minnesota Wild (2) – The Ryan Suter and Zach Parise mega-deals will still be making an impact in 2020, but with most of the core locked up throughout that season and no other NMC contract likely on their way, Minnesota should be okay in the Expansion Draft.
Montreal Canadiens (2) – Even if the Canadiens continue to struggle through two more seasons, there will be few Habs fans that blame superstar goalie Carey Price. His NMC won’t be an issue because the team would never dream of leaving him exposed. Jeff Petry on the other hand could be a problem. Luckily (?), it doesn’t look like Montreal will have many defenders worth protecting even in the next couple of seasons.
Ottawa Senators (2) – Some things never change. The NMC’s for Bobby Ryan and Dion Phaneuf were problems for the Senators in this past Expansion Draft and they’ll likely be problems again next time around. If Phaneuf is traded between now and then, that alleviates some concern for Ottawa. Good luck moving the Ryan contract though.
Philadelphia Flyers (1) – Only Claude Giroux has and predictably will have an NMC come June 2020. That’s a pretty safe situation for Philly.
San Jose Sharks (1) – Marc-Edouard Vlasic plays a confident, stay-at-home defensive game that often ages nicely. He looks to be the only NMC in San Jose in 2020, which shouldn’t cause a stir.
St. Louis Blues (1) – Patrik Berglund will be on the wrong side of 30 and still under a NMC when the potential 2020 draft rolls around, but with the rest of their core signed long-term without NMC’s, the Blues should be pretty safe.
Tampa Bay Lightning (2) – Steven Stamkos and Victor Hedman may be the two safest NMC contracts in the NHL. Fortunately, Ryan Callahan‘s otherwise-problematic NMC expires just prior to projected 2020 Expansion Draft.
Little Flexibility
Anaheim Ducks (3) – Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf, and Ryan Kesler will all be 35+ and still be NMC-protected in 2020. That’s a large chunk of your protected forwards to dedicate to players in the twilight of their careers. Some up-and-coming young talent could leave Anaheim again in this next Expansion Draft a la Shea Theodore.
Chicago Blackhawks (4) – The downside to signing all of your core players to long contracts with NMC’s could hit the Blackhawks hard in the next Expansion Draft. Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews will be well past 30 and Brent Seabrook and Duncan Keith will be in their mid-to-late 30’s during the 2020-21 season, but all four will need to be protected ahead of that season, which could force other promising younger players out of Chicago’s protection scheme. At least they’ll narrowly avoid having an issue in net with Corey Crawford‘s contract expiring prior.
Edmonton Oilers (2) – Milan Lucic and Kris Russell. Each two years older than they are now. Those aren’t exactly players that a team wants to be forced to keep. It’s foreseeable that one or both could have a negative impact on the team’s protection plan.
Florida Panthers (3) – The Panthers probably won’t mind having three players locked up come Expansion 2.0. The team knew what they were doing when they signed Keith Yandle long-term. Even in his mid-30’s, Yandle will be a reliable player and a leader for the young Florida defensive core. Sure, they considered asking him to waive his NMC this past June, but they never actually did. Yandle won’t be a major issue in two years unless his play falls off considerably. There should be no concern whatsoever over Jonathan Huberdeau and Aleksander Barkov, whose NMC’s kick in later on in their contracts. The same might not be true about Evgeni Dadonov, whose been somewhat underwhelming so far in Florida, but luckily his contract runs out just prior the probable draft date.
New York Rangers (4) – Although they will have near total control over their forwards, outside of Mika Zibanejad, the Rangers could be in a tough position with their protection schemes in net and on the blue line in 2020. Then-38-year-old Henrik Lundqvist will require protection, as will underachieving defensemen Kevin Shattenkirk and Marc Staal. New York is apparently readying themselves for somewhat of a rebuild, which could mean some of those players are traded beforehand. Otherwise New York could face quite the dilemma.
Pittsburgh Penguins (4) – It seems unlikely, even years from now and in their mid-30’s, that the NMC’s for Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, or Phil Kessel would cause trouble for the Penguins. Injury-prone defenseman Kris Letang could be different though. Being forced to protect him after another two seasons of hard minutes could be difficult to swallow. Pittsburgh also has some work to do filling out the forward corps between now and 2020. GM Jim Rutherford would be well-served to avoid acquiring or handing out any further NMC’s.
Eastern Notes: van Riemsdyk, Price, Ho-Sang
While the Toronto Maple Leafs find themselves in an interesting cap situation in the future, the team seems to be content with making a playoff run and using their trade deadline assets in James van Riemsdyk, Tyler Bozak and Leo Komarov as “own rentals” instead. All three players will be unrestricted free agents next season and it seems unlikely that all three will be retained.
While the team may be able to find a way to keep one or two of the free agents, there is a lot of speculation that the team is unlikely to be able to extend van Riemsdyk due to the scorer’s likely high contract demands this summer and their own cap situation, The Athletic’s James Mirtle (subscription required) asks the question whether it’s a good idea to lose the veteran wing for nothing. The in-depth story begins by looking at van Riemsdyk’s value as he currently has 19 goals in 47 goals and is on pace for one of his best seasons ever. Breaking down the numbers, Mirtle suggests that the team could easily afford the 28-year-old for the first two years of a deal, but complications will come after that when the team must start extending their young stars in Auston Matthews, William Nylander and Mitch Marner. That doesn’t even get to the thought the team might want to bring in a big-name defenseman at some point.
No matter how you look at it, the scribe writes, there is no easy way to fix the problem. He writes the team should have moved van Riemsdyk a year ago to have gotten the true value they needed, but can’t move him now when the team is poised for a playoff run. It seems clear the team intends to invest elsewhere in the future and will have to fill the veteran’s place from within.
- Eric Engels of Sportsnet writes that Montreal Canadiens goaltender Carey Price said that he was suffering from chronic fatigue at the beginning of the season and couldn’t recover his energy after games and practices. “I was always tired,” Price told TVA Sports. “A guy who eats well and sleeps well like me isn’t supposed to be tired like I was.” After seeing a nutritionist, it turned out he had vitamin deficiencies in vitamin D and B12. Once taking supplements, Price said it took about three weeks before he began to see an improvement in his energy levels. Before being injured on Nov. 2, Price had a 3-7-1 record and a .877 save percentage.
- Newsday’s Arthur Staple writes that while the New York Islanders have made a number of moves, bringing up players from the Bridgeport Sound Tigers to help the team, many fans have noticed that prospect Joshua Ho-Sang has not been among them. That’s because, according to head coach Doug Weight, Ho-Sang is not trying very hard in the AHL. He was a healthy scratch with the AHL squad last week with finger-pointing towards his lack of effort. “It’s a crying shame he’s not playing with John Tavares when (Josh Bailey) goes down,” Weight said. “We had six guys out. It was a perfect opportunity. And Josh should be upset with himself. Whether our view of the world is wrong is something we can argue later. But the fact is, we need to be able to look at how some guys are laying it on the line [in Bridgeport] and he’s a healthy scratch. So to go from that to the first lineup here, where is he learning from that? That’s a big, big part of this.” Ho-Sang has five goals and 10 assists in 20 games with Bridgeport.
Who Is On Pace To Score 60 Points In 2017-18?
In 2016-17, only 42 NHLers hit the 60-point benchmark for the season. It was the lowest total since the 2012-13 lockout-shortened season (obviously), when only Martin St. Louis notched sixty, and down eleven from the 53 players who hit the mark two years earlier in 2014-15. However, with scoring up this season in the NHL, will the league increase it’s number of top scorers? Or will a greater depth and distribution of talent continue to limit players from reaching the high numbers of yesteryear?
As of now, with the 2017 segment of the season about to close, here are the players on pace for 60 points in 2017-18:
- Nikita Kucherov, Tampa Bay Lightning – Currently: 54 points in 37 games, Projection: 120 points
- Steven Stamkos, Tampa Bay Lightning – Currently: 48 points in 37 games, Projection: 107 points
- John Tavares, New York Islanders – Currently: 49 points in 38 games, Projection: 106 points
- Josh Bailey, New York Islanders – Currently: 49 points in 38 games, Projection: 106 points
- Jakub Voracek, Philadelphia Flyers – Currently: 46 points in 38 games, Projection: 99 points
- Claude Giroux, Philadelphia Flyers – Currently: 46 points in 38 games, Projection: 99 points
- Connor McDavid, Edmonton Oilers – Currently: 45 points in 38 games, Projection: 97 points
- Nathan MacKinnon, Colorado Avalanche – Currently: 43 points in 37 games, Projection: 95 points
- Blake Wheeler, Winnipeg Jets – Currently: 44 points in 39 games, Projection: 93 points
- Johnny Gaudreau, Calgary Flames – Currently: 41 points in 38 games, Projection: 89 points
- Phil Kessel, Pittsburgh Penguins – Currently: 41 points in 39 games, Projection: 86 points
- Alex Ovechkin, Washington Capitals – Currently: 41 points in 40 games, Projection: 84 points
- Anze Kopitar, Los Angeles Kings – Currently: 40 points in 39 games, Projection: 84 points
- Anders Lee, New York Islanders – Currently: 39 points in 38 games, Projection: 84 points
- Patrick Kane, Chicago Blackhawks – Currently: 38 points in 37 games, Projection: 84 points
- Brock Boeser*, Vancouver Canucks – Currently: 38 points in 36 games, Projection: 84 points
- Brayden Schenn, St. Louis Blues – Currently: 41 points in 41 games, Projection: 82 points
- Brad Marchand, Boston Bruins – Currently: 32 points in 29 games, Projection: 82 points
- Jon Marchessault, Vegas Golden Knights – Currently: 34 points in 33 games, Projection: 81 points
- Evgeny Kuznetsov, Washington Capitals – Currently: 39 points in 40 games, Projection: 80 points
- Taylor Hall, New Jersey Devils – Currently: 36 points in 36 games, Projection: 80 points
- Jonathan Huberdeau, Florida Panthers – Currently: 36 points in 38 games, Projection: 78 points
- Vincent Trocheck, Florida Panthers – Currently: 36 points in 38 games, Projection: 78 points
- Mathew Barzal*, New York Islanders – Currently: 36 points in 38 games, Projection: 78 points
- Sean Couturier, Philadelphia Flyers – Currently: 36 points in 38 games, Projection: 78 points
- Evgeni Malkin, Pittsburgh Penguins – Currently: 35 points in 35 games, Projection: 78 points
- Vladimir Tarasenko, St. Louis Blues – Currently: 38 points in 41 games, Projection: 76 points
- Jack Eichel, Buffalo Sabres – Currently: 35 points in 38 games, Projection: 75 points
- David Pastrnak, Boston Bruins – Currently: 34 points in 37 games, Projection: 75 points
- Mark Stone, Ottawa Senators – Currently: 34 points in 37 games, Projection: 75 points
- Brayden Point, Tampa Bay Lightning – Currently: 34 points in 37 games, Projection: 75 points
- Sidney Crosby, Pittsburgh Penguins – Currently: 35 points in 39 games, Projection: 74 points
- Jamie Benn, Dallas Stars – Currently: 35 points in 39 games, Projection: 74 points
- David Perron, Vegas Golden Knights – Currently: 29 points in 30 games, Projection: 74 points
- Evander Kane, Buffalo Sabres – Currently: 34 points in 38 games, Projection: 73 points
- Aleksander Barkov, Florida Panthers – Currently: 33 points in 37 games, Projection: 73 points
- Mikko Rantanen, Colorado Avalanche – Currently: 33 points in 37 games, Projection: 73 points
- Leon Draisaitl, Edmonton Oilers – Currently: 32 points in 34 games, Projection: 73 points
- Auston Matthews, Toronto Maple Leafs – Currently: 29 points in 29 games, Projection: 72 points
- Artemi Panarin, Columbus Blue Jackets – Currently: 34 points in 39 games, Projection: 71 points
- Tyler Seguin, Dallas Stars – Currently: 34 points in 39 games, Projection: 71 points
- Vlad Namestnikov, Tampa Bay Lightning – Currently: 32 points in 37 games, Projection: 71 points
- Eric Staal, Minnesota Wild – Currently: 33 points in 39 games, Projection: 70 points
- Ryan Getzlaf, Anaheim Ducks – Currently: 18 points in 15 games, Projection: 70 points
- Sean Monahan, Calgary Flames – Currently: 32 points in 38 games, Projection: 69 points
- Dylan Larkin, Detroit Red Wings – Currently: 31 points in 37 games, Projection: 69 points
- John Klingberg, Dallas Stars – Currently: 32 points in 39 games, Projection: 67 points
- William Karlsson, Vegas Golden Knights – Currently: 29 points in 36 games, Projection: 66 points
- Gabriel Landeskog, Colorado Avalanche – Currently: 28 points in 33 games, Projection: 66 points
- Shayne Gostisbehere, Philadelphia Flyers – Currently: 29 points in 35 games, Projection: 66 points
- Nicklas Backstrom, Washington Capitals – Currently: 31 points in 39 games, Projection: 65 points
- Alexander Radulov, Dallas Stars – Currently: 31 points in 39 games, Projection: 65 points
- Patrik Laine, Winnipeg Jets – Currently: 31 points in 39 games, Projection: 65 points
- Clayton Keller*, Arizona Coyotes – Currently: 31 points in 40 games, Projection: 64 points
- John Carlson, Washington Capitals – Currently: 31 points in 40 games, Projection: 64 points
- Reilly Smith, Vegas Golden Knights – Currently: 28 points in 36 games, Projection: 64 points
- Nikolaj Ehlers, Winnipeg Jets – Currently: 30 points in 39 games, Projection: 63 points
- P.K. Subban, Nashville Predators – Currently: 29 points in 38 games, Projection: 62 points
- Mats Zuccarello, New York Rangers – Currently: 29 points in 38 games, Projection: 62 points
- Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Edmonton Oilers – Currently: 29 points in 38 games, Projection: 62 points
- Teuvo Teravainen, Carolina Hurricanes – Currently: 29 points in 38 games, Projection: 62 points
- Sebastian Aho, Carolina Hurricanes – Currently: 29 points in 38 games, Projection: 62 points
- James Neal, Vegas Golden Knights – Currently: 27 points in 36 games, Projection: 62 points
- Kyle Turris, Nashville Predators – Currently: 27 points in 34 games, Projection: 62 points
- Danton Heinen*, Boston Bruins – Currently: 26 points in 33 games, Projection: 62 points
- Drew Doughty, Los Angeles Kings – Currently: 29 points in 39 games, Projection: 61 points
- Dustin Brown, Los Angeles Kings – Currently: 29 points in 39 games, Projection: 61 points
- Mitch Marner, Toronto Maple Leafs – Currently: 29 points in 39 games, Projection: 61 points
- Jordan Eberle, New York Islanders – Currently: 28 points in 38 games, Projection: 61 points
- Joe Thornton, San Jose Sharks – Currently: 26 points in 35 games, Projection: 61 points
- Mikael Granlund, Minnesota Wild – 27 points in 34 games, Projection: 61 points
- Rickard Rakell, Anaheim Ducks – Currently: 27 points in 34 games, Projection: 61 points
- Tyler Johnson, Tampa Bay Lightning – Currently: 27 points in 36 games, Projection: 61 points
- Erik Haula, Vegas Golden Knights – Currently: 25 points in 32 games, Projection: 61 points
- Victor Hedman, Tampa Bay Lightning – Currently: 27 points in 37 games, Projection: 60 points
- Patrice Bergeron, Boston Bruins- Currently: 25 points in 32 games, Projection: 60 points
- Erik Karlsson, Ottawa Senators – Currently: 25 points in 32 games, Projection: 60 points
Atlantic Notes: Hoffman, Kane, Red Wings Rebuild
While a lot of talk about the Ottawa Senators currently revolves around defenseman Erik Karlsson, who will become a free agent in 2019 and expects top dollar, the Hockey News’ Lyle Richardson writes that a deal isn’t likely to happen any time soon as general manager Pierre Dorion still has hope that he can eventually work out an extension when the two parties can begin negotiating next July.
However, Richardson instead suggests the team might focus on moving some other pieces this season, especially pointing a finger at center Mike Hoffman. The 28-year-old will have two years remaining at 5.19MM AAV after this season, which increases his value. While his numbers are a little down (he’s only scored once in his last nine games), Hoffman is still in line for a solid 20-goal season as he currently has nine goals and 13 assists in 30 games. On top of that, he has put up 20 goals in each of his last three seasons.
Besides that, players such as Cody Ceci and Jean-Gabriel Pageau are other trade options, according to Richardson, but considering they are 23 and 25, respectively, the team may want to keep their youth if the goal is to rebuild the team. Bobby Ryan, Dion Phaneuf and Derick Brassard are also trade possibilities, but even less likely as all three have modified no-trade clauses and because of their high salaries, are unlikely to be going anywhere.
- In the same article, Richardson writes the Buffalo Sabres are not likely to trade forward Evander Kane before the upcoming holiday trade freeze (Dec. 19 to 26). It’s more likely the team will make a move after that as they are still trying to raise his pricetag. The 26-year-old looks to be having a career year as he already has 31 points this season in 33 contests, nearly a point a game, along with 14 goals. Richardson writes that several teams are likely to bid on Kane, including the San Jose Sharks, the St. Louis Blues, the Anaheim Ducks and the Calgary Flames, although few of them are good fits.
- Craig Custance of The Athletic (subscription required) compares the Toronto Maple Leafs roster and to the rebuilding plan of the Detroit Red Wings, pointing out where Detroit stands when it comes to building a franchise like the Maple Leafs. Custance writes that the obvious missing piece on the Red Wings is the lack of a superstar like Auston Matthews, but there some of the other pieces are present on the Red Wings roster. He compares Mitch Marner to that of Anthony Mantha, William Nylander to that of Dylan Larkin and Nazem Kadri to that of prospect Michael Rasussen and keeps going. Among many conclusions, Custance points out the lack of a superstar as well as the team’s need to grab a franchise-changing defenseman and goaltender, but feels Detroit might not be that far away if luck rolls their way.
What Your Team Is Thankful For: Toronto Maple Leafs
As the holiday season approaches, PHR will look at what teams are thankful for as the season nears the quarter point of completion. There also might be a few things your team would like down the road. We take a look at what’s gone well in the first month and what could improve as the season rolls on. So far we’ve covered ANA, ARZ, BUF, CGY, CAR, CBJ, COL, DET, LAK, NYI, STL, WSH, and VGK.
What are the Toronto Maple Leafs most thankful for?
A diverse front office.
When Brendan Shanahan took over as President of the Maple Leafs in 2014, the team was reeling from a late-season collapse that took them out of the playoffs and showed what the club was really made of. Shanahan was a new voice, running a team for the first time since his Hall of Fame playing career ended and within the next few years he would surround himself with a diverse group.
Lou Lamoriello, a legendary GM who had been with the New Jersey Devils for nearly 30 years was brought in to orchestrate the team’s tear down and subsequent rebuild, scouting guru Mark Hunter and whiz-kid Kyle Dubas were added to give the group a few different voices, and Mike Babcock was brought in as coach. Though his role is technically not in the front office, Babcock has a big impact on personnel, including recruiting trips to Russia to bring in extra talent.
The Maple Leafs blew up the team, trading away key players like Phil Kessel and Dion Phaneuf for underwhelming returns and added several top prospects over the last few seasons. Now everything is coming together for Shanahan and company, and some tough decisions will have to be made on how to navigate their upcoming salary obstacles. With the versatility that’s been shown so far from this group, Maple Leafs fans should feel secure in their team’s future.
Who are the Maple Leafs most thankful for?
Yes, things changed in Toronto right around the time Auston Matthews got to town. Last season was built on nightly incredible performances by the rookie, helping the team jump from dead last in the league to a playoff spot overnight. But it was also the first season for Andersen, who immediately (or, at least after a shaky October) gave stability to the Maple Leafs’ crease and helped the team become a contender.
This season after another inconsistent first month, Andersen has shown even more improvement and remains arguably the most important part of the Maple Leafs. Carrying a .958 save percentage over his last eight games, Andersen is looking the part of an All-Star level goaltender and one that could legitimately take the young Maple Leafs team deep into the playoffs. Leading the league in minutes, shots faced and saves, it’s not clear where the team would be without their top netminder.
What would the Maple Leafs be even more thankful for?
Consistency from two of their “Big Three”
While Matthews has still led the team in points even as he works through a mysterious upper-body injury, both Mitch Marner and William Nylander have had their share of troubles. Both have been relegated to the fourth line at times, and though their point totals would be more than acceptable for any other sophomores these two have already shown higher highs.
Both scored 61 points last season and were expected to improve on those totals in their second full-seasons. They’ve combined for just four even-strength goals, but it’s not all bad. Babcock told the media after last night’s 4-1 win in Calgary that he though it was Marner’s best of the season, and the pair is shooting a combined 5.6%. That number is sure to improve over the year, making the Maple Leafs even more dangerous down the stretch.
What should be on the Maple Leafs Holiday Wish List?
Another full-time defenseman.
Andreas Borgman has been a revelation for the Maple Leafs this season, coming over from the SHL to jump right onto their third pairing. The 21-year old Swede doesn’t log a ton of ice time for the team, as he’s not on either special teams group, but has still shown an ability to play on a nightly basis.
The other side of that third pairing though hasn’t been as stable. Babcock has shuffled through Connor Carrick, Roman Polak and Calle Rosen at different points this year, and the team could benefit from that revolving door becoming a little more stationary in the second half. Pittsburgh’s Ian Cole has been linked to them recently, though a right-handed option would likely be more beneficial.
Interestingly, the Maple Leafs do have quite a bit of trade capital as they head towards the deadline. James van Riemsdyk, Leo Komarov and Tyler Bozak are all pending unrestricted free agents, while the team carries an extra second-round pick from a previous trade with the San Jose Sharks. It seems unlikely that they’ll try to make a huge splash on the defensive market, but an addition that could be trusted on the penalty kill and play a full-time role of 15-18 minutes a night would help take some pressure off the rest of the group.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Maple Leafs Notes: Andersen, Rielly, Marner, Rask
The Toronto Maple Leafs started the season scoring tons of points, but still finding it hard to close out games as their defense and their goaltending was under constant scrutiny. Things looked even worse last week when they team wrapped up its road trip and allowed 11 goals in two games against the St. Louis Blues and Los Angeles Kings combined. However, the tide seems to be turning and suddenly the goaltending seems to have shaken their rust off, according to Eric Koreen of The Athletic (subscription required).
The scribe points out that starting goaltender Frederik Andersen has steadied the ship on their recent three-game homestand in which Andersen has allowed just seven goals in three games, a much stronger percentage that previously. With a save percentage hovering well under .900, Andersen seems to have settled down in net this week with a .930 save percentage. Even backup Curtis McElhinney got into the act, putting up a strong performance Saturday against the Boston Bruins, stopping 38 of 39 shots for the win.
Koreen admits that Toronto’s defense has improved, but the goaltenders have had to make quite a few big saves during the games, suggesting that if the goaltenders can keep it up, the team should find itself continually atop of the Eastern Conference standings.
- Howard Berger of Between the Posts praises the offensive play of Toronto Maple Leafs’ Morgan Rielly. He notes that Rielly is the unsung hero of the team as he has quietly put up 16 points in 19 games so far this year. Only John Klingberg, Kevin Shattenkirk and Erik Karlsson have more points for a defenseman that Rielly, who is on pace to amass 74 points on the year, which would be the fourth-highest number for a Toronto Maple Leafs blueliner. Rielly’s highest points total in his career is 36 points, which he attained in the 2015-16 season.
- James Mirtle of The Athletic writes that the Maple Leafs have high hopes that Mitch Marner can get back on track after a quality performance against the Boston Bruins on Friday night. He points out that after 55 games last year, Marner was 22nd in scoring, but then got injured and has never really seemed the same since then. In fact, he’s had just five goals in his last 39 games from that point on. He finished the season with 19 goals and 61 points, but has struggled this season. However, with Auston Matthews down, Marner stepped up and has started to show his skills on the ice. He added his second goal of the season last night, suggesting he might be ready to be a key contributor to the team going forward.
- Lance Hornby of The Toronto Sun writes that the Maple Leafs are beginning to find some success against goaltender Tuukka Rask, best known to be one of the worst trades the team has made in a long time. Rask’s rights (he was a first-round pick in 2005) were traded back in 2006 in exchange for goaltender Andrew Raycroft, who started one year for Toronto and put up a 2.99 GAA that year before taking a backup role the next year. The team, however, has had some success against the now-veteran, 10 years later, as they have bested him in their last four meetings, dating back to last year.
Atlantic Notes: Athanasiou, Canadiens, Kronwall, Marner
Often when you have lengthy holdouts, fans have to wonder whether one of the big obstacles (besides money) is that the player doesn’t really want to play for the team he’s on, only creating a longer bridge towards finding a happy stalemate. Even after the holdout ends, often the player finds himself resenting the organization, which only creates more problems. Not so, however, with the Detroit Red Wings and recently signed forward Andreas Athanasiou, according to Craig Custance of The Athletic (subscription required).
The scribe writes that a conference call held earlier this week between Athanasiou, his agent Darren Ferris and Red Wings brass changed everything and was not just the critical step that helped end the stalemate, but helped show the 23-year-old center that the team really wanted him to return to the team, while the Red Wings understood Athanasiou’s reasons for asking for a trade.
“The philosophical stuff that was causing the desire to be traded was addressed,” Athanasiou’s agent Darren Ferris said. “I really think that call turned the bus around.”
After that phone call, the wheels of progress began to churn and a deal began to be chiseled out. Custance writes that Ferris said while only a one-year deal was struck, Athanasiou plans to prove himself to the Red Wings in hopes of getting a long-term deal with them for next year — in Detroit. Ferris says he wants to stay there.
- Mitch Melnick of The Athletic writes his Good, Bad and Ugly column about the Montreal Canadiens 6-2 loss to the Anaheim Ducks last night, pointing fingers to Paul Byron and Victor Mete as the team’s top players lately. While that was the good, Melnick points out how bad that is too if those two are your best players. The 19-year-old Mete, who no one expected to make the Canadiens’ roster this year, has thrived on the team’s defense in his rookie campaign, while Byron is a 28-year old, whose best season saw him score 22 goals last year. Neither was expected to make a major impact. Catch all of Melnick’s commentary as it’s a good read.
- Helene St. James of the Detroit Free Press writes that veteran defenseman Niklas Kronwall tried stem-cell treatment for his bad knee. The 36-year-old blueliner revealed the information today after having played in his 800th career NHL game yesterday. He has been playing on a permanently damaged knee for the past two years and has been told that surgery would not help him. St. James writes that Kronwall wouldn’t go into specifics about what procedure he had undergone. “It’s a long process,” he said. “It is for another time to discuss.”
- Mitch Marner of the Toronto Maple Leafs, recently downgraded to the team’s fourth line, was quite positive about his demotion and has learned a lot from veteran Matt Martin, tweets Kristen Shilton of TSN. “You just want to go out there and help the team win,” Marner said. “If you don’t, then just be the guy on the bench that’s staying positive and helping the guys out. That’s what I’ve learned from Marty.”
- CapFriendly tweets that the site has confirmed that Boston Bruins defenseman Adam McQuaid has gone on LITR. The move gives the Bruins a $2.75MM salary relief pool. Boston can now exceed the cap by $2,654,209.
Performance Bonuses Still A Consideration For Maple Leafs
The Toronto Maple Leafs are one of the teams in the league who are almost always right up against the salary cap ceiling. With their tremendous financial backing from corporate ownership, and a rabid fan base that is hard to scare away with even the most futile rosters, they use their situation to get every advantage possible. With that in mind, they’ve previously completed moves that a less wealthy team would just not be able to—moving David Clarkson (who was healthy but ineffective at the time) for the injured Nathan Horton for instance.
Last year brought the next wave of Maple Leafs stars, with rookies like Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, William Nylander, Connor Brown and Nikita Zaitsev all finding great success as freshmen. While all of them were on inexpensive entry-level contracts, their excellent play earned them all hefty performance bonuses. Leading the way was Matthews, who earned $2.85MM thanks to his 40-goal performance. Chris Johnston of Sportsnet broke down the bonuses for the Maple Leafs, which totaled a whopping $5.37MM on the year, the second most of all-time.
Because the Maple Leafs were using long-term injured reserve (from the aforementioned Horton along with a few others) last season and were above the salary cap ceiling, that entire bonus pool of $5.37MM was applied to this year’s salary cap as an overage. That hurts their ability to manipulate the cap, but not nearly as much as it could in the future.
The Maple Leafs are still in relative safety when it comes to the cap, with their stars still vastly underpaid and a pair of long-term injuries to use as a cushion of sorts. They were able to use some of that room to bring in Patrick Marleau and Ron Hainsey to augment the roster, while seeing almost their entire core return from last year. The problem arises when these entry-level contracts start to expire.
Much has been written over the past year on the Maple Leafs impending contract negotiations with Matthews, Nylander and Marner, but little of it has concerned the impact bonuses could still have. With the team again over the cap and using LTIR, any bonuses earned will again be carried over. With the roster they’re currently carrying, there is the possibility for up to $6.25MM in bonuses, though it doesn’t look early like they’ll have to pay the maximum.
Matthews, with his explosive start looks like a good bet to max out at $2.85MM, though he’d have to finish in the top-10 in goals once again. He’s currently tied for fourth, though obviously it is still early. Nylander and Marner each could earn up to $850K again.
The two wildcards are Swedish defenders Andreas Borgman and Calle Rosen. The pair have rotated in and out of the lineup early on, and are generally limited to the bottom pairing. If that changes because of injury, or they show improved ability and force head coach Mike Babcock into giving them more minutes they too could each earn up to $850K.
While performance bonuses are never exactly a bad thing—they do after all reward success—the Maple Leafs don’t want to have to deal with overages as they head into the next contracts for their big three. Though right now they project to have over $26MM in cap space for next season, that’s not including Nylander’s new deal or possible new contracts for James van Riemsdyk, Tyler Bozak or Leo Komarov. Hacking 20% off that amount with another $5MM bonus penalty will certainly hurt their ability to re-sign the pending unrestricted free agents, and push them even closer to the 2018-19 cap ceiling where they really need to be careful.
Obviously, the Maple Leafs are quite a distance away from being locked into any cap situation. But they have to be considering how to manage the cap for the 2019-20 season when the rest of the big three (Matthews and Marner) move onto their next contracts. That’s not even considering a Jake Gardiner extension, as he’s headed for UFA status in the summer of 2019 as well. When the Maple Leafs are spending next offseason, don’t be surprised if they leave themselves a little bit of extra room to avoid an overage. If not, they could be putting themselves in a very tricky situation.
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Snapshots: Three Stars, Marner, Hill
The NHL released its “Three Stars of the Week” today, and after Alex Ovechkin was #1 a week ago, Nikolaj Ehlers takes home the title this time around. Ehlers scored five goals and two assists in just three games, including sending Jets fans home happy with two game-winners. The 21-year old Dane is looking even better than last year when he broke out with 64 points, and more than deserved of the seven-year, $42MM extension he signed earlier this month.
Auston Matthews and Nicklas Backstrom rounded out the three stars, after impressive performances of their own. Backstrom is currently tied for the NHL lead in points with 11, including six on the powerplay already. With Ovechkin looking determined to get back to the 50-goal club this year, Backstrom will certainly continue to rack up points. Speaking of offense, Matthews’ four-goal week included a few highlight reel tallies as the 20-year old Maple Leafs forward continues to show off his incredible skill set. The Maple Leafs wouldn’t be sitting at 4-1 without his two overtime winners.
- Speaking of the 4-1 Maple Leafs, head coach Mike Babcock tinkered with the lines today in practice. According to Chris Johnston of Sportsnet, Babcock had Mitch Marner practicing on the fourth line with Matt Martin and Dominic Moore. Connor Brown was the recipient of a promotion, moving up into Marner’s spot alongside Tyler Bozak. Though Maple Leafs’ Twitter immediately went into panic mode, but Babcock gave a quick explanation to reporters including Kristen Shilton of TSN: “Let’s not read too much into this. Their line wasn’t going. Tie goes to the veteran.” That veteran would be James van Riemsdyk on the other wing, who continues to struggle in the defensive zone despite his six points in five games.
- The Arizona Coyotes have sent Marek Langhamer to the AHL and recalled Adin Hill. The goalie swap comes after a 22-save shutout by Hill for the Tucson Roadrunners on Saturday night, and could be a move just to get both goalies some work. Langhamer hadn’t suited up for a game yet in the NHL, and the team likely wants him to stay fresh during the season. We saw a similar situation last year in Columbus after the Blue Jackets waived Curtis McElhinney. Anton Forsberg and Joonas Korpisalo flip-flopped constantly between the two leagues thanks to their waiver-exempt statuses, something the Coyotes could do as well. While Antti Raanta continues to nurse a lower-body injury, Louis Domingue looks to get the lion’s share of the work for the Coyotes.
Eastern Notes: Bozak Line, Bergeron, Anderson
The Toronto Maple Leafs have scored 15 goals in just two games so far this season. It can be assumed that offense will not be an issue for this team with so much talent on the offensive end. And while that’s an incredible accomplishment and should not be overlooked, there are other things the team should worry about if they want to be a Stanley Cup favorite this year. The Athletic’s James Mirtle writes (subscription required) that what looks worrisome is how the team’s defense allowed the New York Rangers to come back from a 5-1 deficit and tie the game up in the second period, turning the game, albeit briefly, into a close game.
The scribe writes that the culprit seems to fall upon the Maple Leafs’ line of Mitch Marner, Tyler Bozak and James van Riemsdyk. The line, while a solid offensive force, struggles defending and is not a great two-way line. They were on the ice for all three second-period goals that allowed the Rangers to come back. In fact, what’s surprising is that line gets quite a bit of even-strength ice time, according to Mirtle as Bozak received more even-strength minutes than Nazem Kadri, who plays on a more balanced line.
The problem is that the Marner, Bozak and van Riemsdyk line needs a better defensive presence, but considering how well the offense is running, there are very few players who would make a better fit into that line besides, maybe Connor Brown and moving the young and talented Marner to the fourth line doesn’t make any sense either. Therefore, Mirtle suggests the team cut the even strength minutes to that line and emphasize them more during special teams play. We’ll see if that situation improves over the next few games.
- Joe Haggerty of NBC Sports writes that Patrice Bergeron is not likely to be ready for Monday’s game against the Colorado Avalanche. The 32-year-old center wore a non-contact practice jersey at practice on Sunday and didn’t finish practice either. “He didn’t finish practice. He started it and took some line rushes, so he’s progressing,” said head coach Bruce Cassidy. “How far he’s progressed is something we’ll determine in the morning. We’ll make a decision then as well. We’ve got three of [the game-time decisions], but Torey Krug and Austin Czarnik look a little closer [to playing] than Bergeron. But I wouldn’t rule any of them in or out until [Monday].”
- The Columbus Blue Jackets announced they have recalled Josh Anderson from his conditioning loan from the Cleveland Monsters where he played one game with no points. The 23-year-old wing just signed a three-year, $5.5MM extension with Columbus last week and was just getting back into shape. He will join the team for their game against the Carolina Hurricanes on Tuesday. Anderson scored 17 goals in a breakout season a year ago.