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The Contract Each Team Would Most Like To Trade: Part I

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Nearly every team has one of those players: a top talent they were excited to sign and never thought could do anything but help them. In hindsight, history shows that more often than not, expensive, long-term free agent contracts don’t work out. It may look good at first (or it may look bad right away to the outside observer), but players struggle to make their value last throughout a lengthy contract. Those contracts come back to bite teams and are hard to get rid of. As teams begin to finalize their rosters at this point in the off-season, many are struggling to make everyone fit under the salary cap and are regretting these past signings that exasperate a cap crunch that can be tough for even a mistake-free club. Here are the contracts that each team would most like to trade, from Anaheim to Dallas:

Anaheim Ducks: Corey Perry – three years, $25.875MM remaining

Corey Perry is no doubt a fan favorite in Anaheim. The big winger is a career Duck who has always played with an edge and a knack for finding the back of the net. However, the former 50-goal scorer has just 19 and 17 in the past two years respectively to the tune of $8.625MM per year. His lack of speed is apparent to even the most inexperienced hockey fan and he has drawn criticism from both GM Bob Murray and coach Randy Carlyle for the drop-off in his skating ability and production. The Ducks aren’t quite up against the salary cap just yet, but have three restricted free agents still unsigned and some big decisions on the horizon. Things are about to get tight in Anaheim and, as much as Ducks fans may not want to hear it, trading Perry away in the right deal would be the easiest solution.

Arizona Coyotes: None

The Coyotes trade for bad contracts, as the perennial salary cap floor dwellers rarely sign or acquire an expensive, long-term deal with an actual asset who may not be worth it.

Boston Bruins: David Backes – three years, $18MM remaining

On July 1st, 2016, it was leaked that Boston would sign David Backes to a one-year, $6MM contract and the Bruins were praised for bringing the veteran forward in as a hired gun. That celebration was short-lived, as the report was soon corrected to being a five-year deal with the same yearly salary and many questioned adding a 32-year-old with 727 games to his credit on a contract of that length and value. Two years later, the doubters have been proven right for the most part. Backes has not been bad in Boston (71 points in 131 games) and injuries have certainly affected his game, but it appears that his 50-point upside and Selke-caliber high-energy play are a thing of the past. Backes doesn’t have a defined role with the Bruins going forward and, as a team that doesn’t need the extra leadership and locker room presence and does need as much cap space as it can get, Boston would be better off if Backes were elsewhere.

Buffalo Sabres: Zach Bogosian – two years, $10.286MM remaining

The Sabres are finally trending in the right direction and have even used other teams’ bad salary cap situations to bring in some nice players this off-season. Buffalo themselves are in fine shape with the cap. However, there is still one contract that is bringing them down and that is Zach Bogosian. If Bogosian was fully healthy, his cap hit of just over $5.1MM would not be too bad. The 28-year-old defenseman has been a very capable two-way player in his career. Unfortunately, he just hasn’t been healthy enough during his time in Buffalo to be worth that salary. Bogosian played in only 18 games last year due to injury – and when he did play it showed that he wasn’t 100% – and has never topped 64 games in a season with the Sabres. The team has several young defenseman that could use as much ice time as possible and a beat up Bogosian isn’t helping anyone in Buffalo. Chances are the Sabres could still get a good return for the rearguard if he does show signs of being back at full-strength.

Calgary Flames: Troy Brouwer – two years, $9MM remaining

Calgary is in a really difficult salary cap situation with little space as is and five restricted free agent situations still to sort out. The team simply can afford to be paying Brouwer $4.5MM in each of the next two years for what he brings to the table. Many were skeptical of the Brouwer contract when signed and they were correct. The veteran power forward has only 25 and 22 points respectively in his first two years in Calgary, including just six goals last season, and at 32 years old he is unlikely to improve. Brouwer has even lost some of his trademark physical edge and recorded a career-low average time on ice last season when he was simply a non-factor in most games. With multiple players filing for salary arbitration, the Flames have been awarded an extra buyout period and it would not come as a shock to see Brouwer fall victim to it.

Carolina Hurricanes: Scott Darling – three years, $12.45MM remaining

The argument here is not that the Hurricanes should trade Darling because they need the cap space but that they should trade Darling because they need a better starting goaltender. Carolina is in fine salary cap shape, but so long as Darling is making more than $4MM per year, the team is likely to stick with him as the top guy. They have already committed to giving him another chance as the starter next season. Unfortunately, Darling’s first season in Raleigh hardly convinced anyone that this contract would work out. Moving from backup to starter, Darling seemed to crumble under the pressure even behind a stout defense, posting an .888 save percentage and 3.18 GAA as one of the worst keepers in the NHL. Perhaps his play will improve in year two, but the Hurricanes can’t be happy with the early results.

Chicago Blackhawks: Brent Seabrook – six years, $41.25MM remaining

When the Blackhawks made Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews the highest paid players in the league back in 2014, who would have figured that a different contract would be causing the team problems? Brent Seabrook’s eight-year, $55MM extension is already a nightmare for Chicago with the bulk of the contract still to come. Seabrook is a fine defenseman, but that doesn’t cut it when you’re paid like one of the top defenseman in the league, but your play is slipping and your team is finishing last in the division. This past season especially, it was clear that Seabrook has lost a step. Both his scoring and checking have diminished and he no longer resembles the player who was regularly posting 40+ points and garnering Norris Trophy votes. Seabrook will turn 34 later this season and it seems guaranteed that this contract only gets worse unless the team finds some way to trade him.

Colorado Avalanche: Erik Johnson – five years, $30MM remaining

The Avalanche have one of the lowest payrolls in the league with superstar Nathan MacKinnon locked up long-term at a reasonable rate. Their distance from the cap ceiling this season makes egregious contracts with just one year remaining – like streaky starter Semyon Varlamov and invisible forward Colin Wilson – somewhat tolerable. However, several major contributors are set to be restricted free agents after next season, Colorado will need to add another goaltender, and could still stand to add another difference-maker up front. Things could get tighter for the Avs moving forward and the one contract that could become a problem is Erik Johnson. Johnson eats up minutes and plays a defensively sound game, but the veteran defenseman is injury prone and does not create enough offense to warrant a $6MM cap hit. If the Avalanche were offered a reasonable deal for Johnson today they may not take it, but this time next year that same deal will be far more attractive.

Columbus Blue Jackets: Brandon Dubinsky – three years, $17.55MM remaining

The Blue Jackets pay Brandon Dubinsky like a second-line center and last season got fourth-line production from the veteran. Yes, Dubinsky has had his fair share of injuries, but a consistent 40+ point scorer dropping to just 16 points on the year was alarming. Columbus is no longer a small market team still figuring things out; the Jackets are a contender and like most contenders are close to the salary cap limit. The team can’t afford to have Dubinsky continuing to produce at this level while costing them $5.85MM against the cap. They hope that he bounces back this year, but even a slow start could have Columbus taking their best offer.

Dallas Stars: Martin Hanzal – two years, $9.5MM remaining

It may be too early to judge last summer’s Martin Hanzal contract, but if Dallas was offered a re-do right now, they would take it. Hanzal’s first season with the Stars was a disaster. Injuries limited him to just 38 games and even when active he contributed only ten points –  a 22-point pace over a full season – and somehow finished with the second-lowest plus/minus rating on the team. If Hanzal gets healthy, which is a big if, he could return to form next season, but if not the Stars could be quick to deal him away. The team desperately needs to bounce back from a devastating slump that cost them a playoff spot and have been rumored to be interested in big (expensive) names all off-season. That plan doesn’t mix well with a $4.75MM player who brought almost nothing to the team last year.

Keep an eye out for Part II of this three-part series coming soon…

 

Poll: What Kind Of Extension Is Predators’ Ryan Ellis Worth?

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With top defensemen getting locked up to big, long-term deals everywhere, one only has to look around the league to see who is next. The most obvious target would be Nashville’s Ryan Ellis, who will be wrapping up the final year of his five-year, $12.5MM deal. Ellis, who is one of the core of Nashville’s talented back end, is one of the most underpaid blueliners in the league at $2.5MM AAV, should be in line for a great extension. After all, many of his defensive teammates are already well-paid, including P.K. Subban ($9MM for four more years), Roman Josi ($4MM for two more years), and Mattias Ekholm ($3.75MM for four more years).

Nashville claims that locking up the 27 year old is the team’s top priority this offseason. Yet little has happened. However, how much is he worth, asks Adam Vingan of the Tennessean? While two of the most significant extensions went to Los Angeles’ Kings Drew Doughty (eight years, $11MM AAV) and Arizona Coyotes’ Oliver Ekman-Larsson (eight years, $8.25MM AAV), Ellis likely doesn’t fit into that category. Therefore, Vingan writes that Nashville must compare Ellis’ play with several other tiers of defenseman that have recently signed new deals. The most likely comparables for Ellis will come down to the recent contracts signed by Washington Capitals’ John Carlson (eight years, $8MM AAV) and Tampa Bay Lightning’s Ryan McDonagh (eight years, $6.75MM AAV). However is he as good as those two?

The next tier would be contracts handed out a few years ago that could compare, such as Pittsburgh Penguins’ Kris Letang (eight years, $7.25MM AAV), Erik Johnson (seven years, $6MM AAV) and Anaheim Ducks’ Cam Fowler (eight years, $6.5MM AAV). Ellis’ stats are challenging to look when attempting to compare to any of those defensemen. Offensively, he’s never put up 40 points in a season yet, coming close once with 38 points (16 of those were goals). However, after missing the first half of this past season after undergoing knee surgery in the offseason, Ellis’ stats took a jump when he put up 32 points in 44 games, suggesting that his offense is starting to emerge. With his defense never under question, the Predators must come up with a number soon.

So what range should Ellis fall into?

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Avalanche Lose Varlamov, Johnson To Major Injuries

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The Colorado Avalanche’s playoff chances took a big hit as the team announced today that starting goalie Semyon Varlamov will be out for the season after sustaining a lower-body injury Friday night, while defenseman Erik Johnson will miss the next six weeks with a fractured patella. The two injuries figure to be a huge blow to team who many felt had a good chance of reaching the playoffs this year.

The irony is that Varlamov and Jonathan Bernier made history Friday after the two combined for the first combined shutout in franchise history (Nordiques as well). Varlamov saved 30-of-30 shots before Chicago’s Tomas Jurco collided with Varlamov on an attempted shot late in the third period, forcing the goaltender to be helped off the ice. Bernier finished the game. Varlamov was having a solid season as he has a 2.68 GAA and a .920 save percentage in 51 games. Bernier will have to take over as starter. He has a 2.82 GAA and a .913 save percentage in 33 games this year.

Johnson did not play in Friday’s game with no explanation, but is just as likely done for the year unless the Avalanche can not only reach the playoffs, but make an extended run in them. The oft-injured defenseman has been having a solid season, but has never played an entire 82-game season ever. His 62 games this season are the highest in two years.

Despite the disappointment, the Avalanche who finished with the worst record last season, have put together a remarkable season and considering they made no moves at the trade deadline, the team should look at this season as a positive regardless of whether they make the playoffs or not.

 

Avalanche Activate Erik Johnson From IR

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The Colorado Avalanche have points in nine of their last ten games and have climbed back into playoff position. Now, they’ll get even stronger as they bring back one of their top defenseman. NHL.com’s Callie Parmele writes that Erik Johnson has been activated from the injured reserve and is set to return to the lineup today against the Detroit Red Wings.

Johnson, who has struggled with injuries throughout his career, was most recently sidelined with an undisclosed upper-body injury. He was placed on IR back on February 19th and has missed Colorado’s past 13 games. Fortunately, the Avs went 7-2-4 in that span and now Johnson’s return could vault them into a playoff spot.

As it stands, Colorado holds the first wild card berth in the Western Conference with 84 points in 71 games. The Dallas Stars and Anaheim Ducks also have 84 points, but the Avalanche have a game in-hand on both. With Johnson back in the lineup, potentially resuming his play on the top pair with Nikita Zadorov or, as Parmele suggests, possibly taking on a new role, maybe with Patrik Nemeth, the Avs will solidify their back end and could hold off those seeking to take away their postseason chances. Colorado faces the Los Angeles Kings, Philadelphia Flyers, and the Vegas Golden Knights twice in their next six games so Johnson’s impact, and the Avs’ ability to fight for their playoff lives, will be on display.

Injury Notes: Marchand, Duclair, Vatrano, Klefbom, Smith, Avalanche, Seeler

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Boston Bruins forward Brad Marchand could miss some time — not due to injury — but after another incident in which the forward collided with Chicago Blackhawks winger Anthony Duclair in Saturday’s game. You can see the video here. While on the surface it does look as if Marchand was attempting to avoid Duclair, one has to wonder how the Department of Player Safety will treat the incident after numerous incidents this season. A repeat offender, Marchand served a five-game suspension back in January for concussing New Jersey Devils forward Marcus Johansson.

Marchand was given a two-minute interference penalty on the play, but Duclair was forced to exit the game as he suffered a knee injury. The Blackhawks later announced that he will not return for the rest of the game and Mark Lazerus of the Chicago Sun-Times reports that he will miss one-to-two weeks.

  • Matthew DeFranks of the SunSentinel writes the Florida Panthers have activated forward Frank Vatrano and will make his Panthers debut Saturday night. Vatrano, who was acquired a week before the trade deadline from the Boston Bruins for a third-round pick, will attempt to find his game with the rising Panthers despite missing some time with a high ankle sprain. He is slated to appear on the team’s second line alongside Vincent Trocheck and Jonathan Huberdeau as the team hopes Vatrano could be a valuable addition to their core. After putting up 39 goals in 45 career AHL games, he has struggled in the NHL. With Boston, the 23-year-old had just two goals in 25 games this year and often found himself scratched.
  • Edmonton Oilers head coach Todd MacLellan said defenseman Oscar Klefbom will miss the next two games to undergo a “minor procedure.” With rumors that Klefbom was been playing injured for much of the year, the eventual question will be whether the team should shut him down in the near future.
  • Las Vegas Review-Journal’s Steve Carp writes that center Reilly Smith was sent back to Las Vegas after he sustained an upper body injury during Tuesday’s game against the Columbus Blue Jackets. He is not playing today and is not expected to be ready for Monday’s game against the Philadelphia Flyers. Smith is having a career year with 22 goals and 38 assists in his first year with Vegas.
  • Kyle Fredrickson of the Denver Post writes that the team intends to start Jonathan Bernier today after Bernier has missed the past 10 games with a head injury. Starter Semyon Varlamov has struggled recently having allowed 11 goals in the past three games. The scribe also writes that defenseman Erik Johnson skated Friday in a non-contact jersey. He hasn’t played in a game since Feb. 18. There is no timeline for Johnson, according to head coach Jared Bednar. Forward Vladislav Kamenev, who broke his arm in November after being acquired from Nashville, practiced Friday and is likely to be sent to the AHL for a couple of games on a conditioning stint.
  • Sarah McLellan of the StarTribune writes that defenseman Nick Seeler, who has been dealing with a right bicep strain and the flu, is improving, but did not travel with the team to Vancouver and would only join the team in Edmonton if there is an injury on defense before then.

Snapshots: Hajek, Larkin, Colorado Injuries, Lamoriello

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The key to the Ryan McDonagh to Tampa Bay trade was the inclusion of prospect defenseman Libor Hajek and had he not been involved, McDonagh would still be with the Rangers, reports Larry Brooks of the New York Post.  The 2016 second-round pick is having a strong season at the WHL level and put forth a very strong showing back at the World Juniors and figures to be an important piece of their retooling on the back end.  Brooks adds that Pittsburgh, Washington, and Florida made runs at McDonagh before the trade deadline while noting that the Capitals would have needed to get a third team involved to get a deal done.

More from around the league:

  • The Oilers are expected to sign UMass-Boston forward Colin Larkin to an NHL entry-level deal, reports Mark Divver of the Providence Journal (Twitter links). The 24-year-old has had a strong season at the NCAA Division III level, posting 24 goals and 22 assists in just 27 games and averaged a point per game or better in each of his four collegiate seasons.  He is also the brother of Red Wings center Dylan Larkin.
  • The Avalanche should have goaltender Jonathan Bernier available for their upcoming road trip, reports Mike Chambers of the Denver Post. He has missed the last eight games due to a concussion.  Meanwhile, winger Sven Andrighetto, who has been out since December 31st due to a leg injury, is also nearing a return.  The news isn’t as promising for a pair of defenders as Erik Johnson (shoulder) and Mark Barberio (concussion) are not close to returning to Colorado’s lineup.
  • The contract extension for Washington GM Brian MacLellan leaves two general managers in limbo. One of those is Lou Lamoriello of the Maple Leafs whose initial three-year contract is set to expire at the end of the season.  While there has been speculation that he could cede his spot to Kyle Dubas, the 75-year-old told reporters, including Postmedia’s Terry Koshan, that he isn’t concerned about his role with the team next year at all, calling it a “non-issue”.  Even if Lamoriello is out of the GM chair next season, he’s likely to stick around in an advisory role at the very least.

Colorado Dealing With Big Changes On Defense

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The Colorado Avalanche are one of this year’s best stories, coming back from a historically bad season in 2016-17 to be a potential buyer at the upcoming trade deadline. The team sits five points behind the Minnesota Wild for the last playoff spot, but does have a game in hand. Today, that playoff chase took a big hit when the team announced that both Erik Johnson and Anton Lindholm would be out indefinitely due to injury. In their place, the Avalanche have recalled David Warsofsky and Andrei Mironov from the AHL, pushing their depth to the limit.

Whatever you think of Johnson’s value versus his long-term contract, his impact on the Avalanche is immense. Logging more than 25 minutes a night, the 29-year old sits fifth in league average time on ice and plays in all situations for Colorado. While Tyson Barrie has a bigger impact offensively, Johnson is the glue that holds the entire blue line together and his presence will be sorely missed.

The team now has to weigh their options, and decide whether adding another defenseman is worth the price. Making the playoffs would be a huge accomplishment for the young team, especially after trading Matt Duchene earlier in the year, but there are some impact prospects on the way and this team is nicely set up for future success. Selling off some assets wouldn’t cripple that future, but there’s no guarantee it results in a playoff run this year.

Which Teams Would Have Flexibility In Another Expansion Draft?

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Midway-through the 2017-18 NHL season, it is nearly impossible to predict what rosters could look like following the 2019-20 season, more than two years away. Trades, free agency, and much more shape teams often in ways that no one sees coming. With that said, it seems like another Expansion Draft is coming to add the league’s 32nd team, the Seattle __________, and the timeline most are suggesting is a June 2020 draft date. Like it or not, the general managers of the other 31 NHL need to be keeping that in the back of their mind with each move they make over the next two seasons.

However, it could be that some have already made decisions that could impact their roster protection plans more than two years from now. The structure of the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft will the remain the same, allowing for teams to protect seven forwards, three defensemen and one goalie or eight skaters regardless of position and one goalie from being selected. The one caveat that threw more than a few teams for a loop last June was that all players with No-Movement Clauses (NMC) in their contracts had to be protected, unless the players voluntarily chose to wave them i.e. Marc-Andre Fleury. So, with that one aspect of the expansion process in mind, it is possible to look ahead at certain long-term contracts to see, assuming those players don’t waive them ahead of time, who could be locked in for protection in 2020 or which teams will have more flexibility without any such players:

Total Flexibility

Arizona Coyotes (0) – The only NMC players on the Coyotes are defensemen Alex Goligoski and Niklas Hjalmarsson. Hjalmarsson will be a free agent in the summer of the projected Expansion Draft and Goligoski’s clause will have shifted to a Modified No-Trade Clause. Arizona will likely have complete flexibility.

Buffalo Sabres (0) – Kyle Okposo’s NMC expires after this season and Jason Pominville’s contract expires after next season. Buffalo won’t have any restrictions on their protection scheme as of now.

Calgary Flames (0) – There is no one on the roster with a NMC and no one that will predictably get one by the end of the 2019-20 season. Kudos to GM Brad Treliving.

Los Angeles Kings (0) – Kings’ captain Anze Kopitar in their only NMC player right now and even his clause will have shifted to No-Trade by 2020. L.A. is free and clear.

Nashville Predators (0) – GM David Poile does not seem to be a fan of NMC’s in his recent long-term deals and in the new NHL expansion era, that’s a good thing.

New Jersey Devils (0) – see Calgary Flames

New York Islanders (0) – The Andrew Ladd and Johnny Boychuk contracts already look bad for the Isles. They would be much worse if their NMC’s didn’t expire soon. With John Tavares and Josh Bailey both candidates for NMC’s should they re-sign in New York and a defense that needs a re-haul, the Islanders could lose some flexibility, but they should be fine.

Toronto Maple Leafs (0) – The Leafs have no NMC players under contract beyond 2019-20 right now. That could easily change with Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, and William Nylander in need of extensions, but Toronto should still be in a good spot. After all, those are players that would protected regardless.

Vancouver Canucks (0) – Loui Eriksson’s NMC shifts to a No-Trade Clause following this season and will be an afterthought by 2020. It’s fortunate, as Eriksson’s tenure in Vancouver has not gone according to plan.

Vegas Golden Knights (0) – The Golden Knights didn’t sign or trade for any players with NMC’s and only drafted two – Marc-Andre Fleury and David Clarkson – who already had them and they both expire before the Knights would be set to become the NHL’s second-newest team. With that said, the current Knights’ roster will see a lot of turnover in the next two years and they may struggle to avoid NMC’s completely.

Washington Capitals (0) – GM Brian MacLellan has avoided NMC’s in any of his recent mega-deals. If he can do it again this summer in his attempt to re-sign (or replace) John Carlson, then the Caps will be in good shape for another round of expansion drafting.

Winnipeg Jets (0) – The NMC in Bryan Little’s contract will both kick in and expire between now and June 2020. The Jets should be left with a fully flexible lineup.

Some Flexibility

Boston Bruins (2) – There’s little concern that Brad Marchand and Patrice Bergeron will still be playing at a high level in two years. Their NMC’s should be a non-factor for Boston. If David Krejci and, especially, David Backes still had their NMC’s too at that time, there would be a real logjam up front. However, both will have shifted to Modified No-Trade Clauses by then, potentially saving the Bruins from making tough decisions about their many talented young forwards.

Carolina Hurricanes (1) – As important a job as he’s had in Carolina, Jordan Staal will never be the star forward that finally puts them over the top. If his NMC causes a problem in 2020, he could easily be traded to a contender to play a complementary role. The Hurricanes need to retain as many promising young forward assets as they can in hopes of one day finding that true superstar.

Colorado Avalanche (1) – There are mixed opinions on Erik Johnson, but he has a leadership role for the Avalanche and will be key in grooming a strong crop of up-and-coming defensive prospects. The Avs won’t lose sleep about having to protect him in expansion, especially if he’s still one of their top-pairing guys in two years.

Columbus Blue Jackets (1) – The Blue Jackets were one of the biggest losers in the most recent Expansion Draft. They might be smart to sell off Nick Foligno if there’s any risk that history repeats itself.

Dallas Stars (3) – Call it optimism about his play in his first season in Dallas, but the NMC for Alexander Radulov doesn’t seem like it will be a major issue even after a couple more years. Of course, Jamie Benn’s NMC will also be a non-factor. Ben Bishop on the other hand may not be the goalie the Stars would prefer to keep in two years. As of now, there’s no immediate competition though.

Detroit Red Wings (1) – Detroit only has one NMC player who will still be under contract in 2020-21 (and another season after that), but it’s Frans Nielsen, who has been a major disappointment for the team since coming over from the New York Islanders. He could throw a wrench in their plans if he continues his downward trend over the next two seasons.

Minnesota Wild (2) – The Ryan Suter and Zach Parise mega-deals will still be making an impact in 2020, but with most of the core locked up throughout that season and no other NMC contract likely on their way, Minnesota should be okay in the Expansion Draft.

Montreal Canadiens (2) – Even if the Canadiens continue to struggle through two more seasons, there will be few Habs fans that blame superstar goalie Carey Price. His NMC won’t be an issue because the team would never dream of leaving him exposed. Jeff Petry on the other hand could be a problem. Luckily (?), it doesn’t look like Montreal will have many defenders worth protecting even in the next couple of seasons.

Ottawa Senators (2) – Some things never change. The NMC’s for Bobby Ryan and Dion Phaneuf were problems for the Senators in this past Expansion Draft and they’ll likely be problems again next time around. If Phaneuf is traded between now and then, that alleviates some concern for Ottawa. Good luck moving the Ryan contract though.

Philadelphia Flyers (1) – Only Claude Giroux has and predictably will have an NMC come June 2020. That’s a pretty safe situation for Philly.

San Jose Sharks (1) – Marc-Edouard Vlasic plays a confident, stay-at-home defensive game that often ages nicely. He looks to be the only NMC in San Jose in 2020, which shouldn’t cause a stir.

St. Louis Blues (1) – Patrik Berglund will be on the wrong side of 30 and still under a NMC when the potential 2020 draft rolls around, but with the rest of their core signed long-term without NMC’s, the Blues should be pretty safe.

Tampa Bay Lightning (2) – Steven Stamkos and Victor Hedman may be the two safest NMC contracts in the NHL. Fortunately, Ryan Callahan’s otherwise-problematic NMC expires just prior to projected 2020 Expansion Draft.

Little Flexibility

Anaheim Ducks (3) – Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf, and Ryan Kesler will all be 35+ and still be NMC-protected in 2020. That’s a large chunk of your protected forwards to dedicate to players in the twilight of their careers. Some up-and-coming young talent could leave Anaheim again in this next Expansion Draft a la Shea Theodore.

Chicago Blackhawks (4) – The downside to signing all of your core players to long contracts with NMC’s could hit the Blackhawks hard in the next Expansion Draft. Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews will be well past 30 and Brent Seabrook and Duncan Keith will be in their mid-to-late 30’s during the 2020-21 season, but all four will need to be protected ahead of that season, which could force other promising younger players out of Chicago’s protection scheme. At least they’ll narrowly avoid having an issue in net with Corey Crawford’s contract expiring prior.

Edmonton Oilers (2) – Milan Lucic and Kris Russell. Each two years older than they are now. Those aren’t exactly players that a team wants to be forced to keep. It’s foreseeable that one or both could have a negative impact on the team’s protection plan.

Florida Panthers (3) – The Panthers probably won’t mind having three players locked up come Expansion 2.0. The team knew what they were doing when they signed Keith Yandle long-term. Even in his mid-30’s, Yandle will be a reliable player and a leader for the young Florida defensive core. Sure, they considered asking him to waive his NMC this past June, but they never actually did. Yandle won’t be a major issue in two years unless his play falls off considerably. There should be no concern whatsoever over Jonathan Huberdeau and Aleksander Barkov, whose NMC’s kick in later on in their contracts. The same might not be true about Evgeni Dadonov, whose been somewhat underwhelming so far in Florida, but luckily his contract runs out just prior the probable draft date.

New York Rangers (4) – Although they will have near total control over their forwards, outside of Mika Zibanejad, the Rangers could be in a tough position with their protection schemes in net and on the blue line in 2020. Then-38-year-old Henrik Lundqvist will require protection, as will underachieving defensemen Kevin Shattenkirk and Marc Staal. New York is apparently readying themselves for somewhat of a rebuild, which could mean some of those players are traded beforehand. Otherwise New York could face quite the dilemma.

Pittsburgh Penguins (4) – It seems unlikely, even years from now and in their mid-30’s, that the NMC’s for Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, or Phil Kessel would cause trouble for the Penguins. Injury-prone defenseman Kris Letang could be different though. Being forced to protect him after another two seasons of hard minutes could be difficult to swallow. Pittsburgh also has some work to do filling out the forward corps between now and 2020. GM Jim Rutherford would be well-served to avoid acquiring or handing out any further NMC’s.

Tyson Barrie Unlikely To Be Traded By Deadline

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As it is with most teams who make a surprising turnaround from one year to the next, the Colorado Avalanche, fresh off one of the worst seasons in recent memory, may not even be a seller this time around at the NHL Trade Deadline. The 2017-18 season has gone much better for the Avs, with their play of late – a convincing eight-game winning streak – pulling them into the playoff picture. Of course, the team also already made a major deal earlier in the year, netting three prospects and three quality draft picks for Matt Duchene. With that impressive return already in the bag and the team rolling on all cylinders, it seems unlikely that Colorado would still resort to trading away valuable players over the next month. That even includes, in the opinion of The Hockey News’ Matt Larkin, polarizing defenseman Tyson Barrie.

Next to Duchene, Barrie was easily the next man up on the trade block for the Avalanche and, if this season was anything like 2016-17, he may have already been traded. Barrie, 26, is a gifted offensive blue liner who plays major minutes for Colorado and is depended on for much of their puck movement. However, he often struggles in his own end and there are questions as to whether he could ever really be a top pairing defenseman, despite his ample $5.5MM salary. In fact, that exact argument was reportedly part of former head coach Patrick Roy’s sudden departure from the team in 2016. It still feels like Barrie, who is currently on injured reserve, has yet to really carve out a comfortable, long-term role in Denver, which has led to much speculation that he could be moved. Around the league, there is less skepticism and many teams would love to add his offensive touch.

However, those teams will likely have to wait until the off-season for him to become available again. Larkin believes that the Avs’ recent play and lack of depth on defense has all but eliminated the chance that Barrie would be moved by the Trade Deadline. Behind Barrie, Erik Johnson, and young Nikita Zadorov, the rest of the Colorado blue line is made up of uninspiring names like Patrik Nemeth, Mark Barberio, Anton Lindholm, and David Warsofsky. Removing Barrie from that mix, even if a stopgap defender was part of the return, would hurt Colorado’s chances of making the playoffs. It seems like a move that Joe Sakic, who has stood by Barrie, would not make at this time.

With that said, Larkin acknowledges that Samuel Girard, one of the new pieces acquired for Duchene, has looked good and is deserving of more ice time and also notes that 2017 selections Cale Makar and Conor Timmins look like they will be surefire NHLers in no time. Barrie could certainly be moved sooner rather than later, to make room for the youth and to address the Avs’  lack of forward depth, but the soonest will likely be this off-season unless Sakic is blown away by an offer which has a long-term benefit worth sacrificing playoff hopes this season. Not too many blockbusters like that come around in-season, especially two in one year for the same team, so Barrie is likely safe and can soon return to the Avalanche lineup to help continue the team’s miraculous turnaround.

Zac Rinaldo Declines In-Person Hearing With Department Of Player Safety

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Zac Rinaldo could be in trouble again, as the Arizona Coyotes forward was offered an in-person hearing from the Department of Player Safety after punching Colorado defenseman Samuel Girard. Rinaldo has waived his right to that in-person meeting, and will instead try to defend himself over the phone tomorrow.

Because they offered Rinaldo the meeting, the NHL reserves the right to suspend him for five or more games, which seems likely given his history. Rinaldo has already been suspended four times in the past despite playing in just 306 career NHL games. After delivering a check on Avalanche forward Nathan MacKinnon, Rinaldo grabbed Girard and threw a punch while the defenseman was looking past him. While both Erik Johnson and MacKinnon were immediately involved in altercations, their discipline will be limited to the major fighting penalties they served, and MacKinnon’s game misconduct.

Rinaldo was last suspended in March of 2016, meaning he isn’t technically a repeat offender in terms of the salary he will sacrifice if suspended. That doesn’t mean that the DoPS won’t use his past transgressions in deciding his fate, as all previous incidents are considered regardless of how long ago they took place.

Last year we saw Micheal Haley suspended one game for a similar punch, his first such discipline from the DoPS. One would imagine a regular offender like Rinaldo will face a stiffer penalty.

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