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Eastern Notes: McDonagh, Nash, Bruins, Stone

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Trade rumors seem to be buzzing around the Tampa Bay Lightning as a team very likely to make a big deal at the trade deadline this year. Already with the best record in the NHL with a 36-13-3 record, the Lightning might be looking to improve both its forward depth as well as its defense for a run at the Stanley Cup this year.

While he is quick to acknowledge that teams cross-scouting each other doesn’t mean a trade is forthcoming, New York Post’s Larry Brooks writes that he wouldn’t be surprised if both teams are scouting each other for a potential deadline deal surrounding New York Rangers defenseman Ryan McDonagh. The fact that Rangers assistant general manager Chris Drury was spotted at a Syracuse Crunch game (Tampa’s AHL affiliate) on Friday, suggests they might be looking at what they can get from the Lightning in such a move. Tampa Bay’s assistant GM Pat Verbeek has also been spotted at Ranger games recently. McDonagh has often been mentioned in trade rumors as he has one year remaining on his contract after this year, making him a more advantageous acquisition than a pure rental player.

The Lightning might be looking to bolster their defense. The team struggled when they lost Victor Hedman for several weeks to injury. Considering that Tampa Bay likes former Ranger players such as Ryan Callahan and Dan Girardi, perhaps a trade is a possibility. Brooks added that he believes the Rangers would also be willing to retain half of his $4.7MM salary in order to get a quality return.

  • In the same article, Brooks adds he believes the New York Rangers also would be willing to retain half of veteran forward Rick Nash’s contract as well. Nash, who is in the final year of his deal with an AAV of $7.8MM, is believed to have multiple suitors if the price is right, including the Nashville Predators, Columbus Blue Jackets, Dallas Stars, St. Louis Blues, San Jose Sharks and possibly the Pittsburgh Penguins.
  • The Boston Globe’s Fluto Shinzawa writes that the Boston Bruins would also have quite a bit of interest in acquiring McDonagh for their defense. The scribe writes that the veteran’s leadership, character and performance could be quite valuable to a young Bruins’ team. However, would the Bruins be willing to relinquish a first-rounder, a young NHL player and a prospect for him?
  • The Ottawa Sun’s Bruce Garrioch reports that the Ottawa Senators might be getting back forward Mark Stone from injury soon, after having already missed six games due to a knee injury. Although not expected to play today against Montreal, Garrioch writes that Stone has resumed skating and is a possibility for Tuesday’s game against the New Jersey Devils. “I have to find out if it swelled up again,” Senators head coach Guy Boucher said Saturday. “There’s no structural problem waiting to heal. It’s the swelling. Once the swelling is gone, then he’s ready to play. I know the swelling was down big time. Mechanically he was able to move his leg a lot better, but certainly not enough to play (this weekend), and he hasn’t practised yet. He has to do real practices with the team, and then he’s ready to play. I’d love to get him back, but we’ve lived with this all year.”

Atlantic Notes: Howard, Detroit Injuries, Stone, Ottawa Arena

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While many have expected the Red Wings will try to move goaltender Petr Mrazek before the trade deadline, MLive’s Ansar Khan reports that Detroit will look to move netminder Jimmy Howard.  The 33-year-old is having a down year compared to his stellar 2016-17 campaign and has posted a 2.82 GAA and a .911 SV% in 38 games this season.  However, what makes him a tougher candidate to deal than Mrazek (eligible for restricted free agency with a $4.15MM qualifying offer) is Howard’s contract, which has one year left on it beyond this season with a cap charge just shy of $5.3MM and a 10-team no-trade clause.  The goalie market isn’t expected to be too robust in the next month and expiring contracts will likely yield more attention for those teams seeking help or additional depth.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic:

  • Still with the Red Wings, they’re expected to get both center Darren Helm (leg) and winger Justin Abdelkader (groin) back on Wednesday, reports Helene St. James of the Detroit Free Press. Both players have been out of the lineup since sustaining their injuries back on January 13th against the Penguins.
  • The Senators are hoping to have winger Mark Stone back on Tuesday, their first game following the All-Star break, notes Postmedia’s Ken Warren. He has missed the last three games due to a knee injury.  The 25-year-old is Ottawa’s leading point-getter with 18-26-44 in 44 games so far this season and is one of the few players believed to be untouchable for the Sens in trade talks.
  • Also from Ottawa, although they have reached a preliminary agreement on a new downtown arena, Postmedia’s Bruce Garrioch cautions that it may take until the 2022-23 season if not longer before the arena is actually built and ready for use. It will still be another year or two before everything is finalized for the site to start being cleared and the arena being built so while brighter days appear to be on the horizon for the Senators in terms of a new place to play, they will still be waiting a while before they can move in.

Ottawa Begins To Prep For Trade Deadline

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With the Ottawa Senators on their bye-week, general manager Pierre Dorion is certainly not taking a vacation. The GM must start making decisions about the avenue his club will be taking in the coming weeks as the trade deadline begins to loom closer. After a lackluster start of the season, especially after the team acquired center Matt Duchene from Colorado, the team must decide whether they plan to blow the team up or just make a couple tweaks to their roster.

The Ottawa Citizen’s Bruce Garrioch writes that blowing the team up is unlikely, but writes Dorion has spent quite a bit of time with team scouts to try to figure out what has gone wrong and what the best course of action should be for the franchise. The scribe suggests the team is unlikely to tear down the entire team, but writes that several players are likely heading out of Ottawa by the deadline. While Dorion remains realistic about his team’s playoff chances, the team remains just nine games out of a playoff spot and have had some recent success before the break, so it’s unlikely any deal would be made soon in case the team can turn its fortunes around.

Garrioch believes that forward Mike Hoffman is the most likely candidate to be traded as the interest in him is quite high. Despite his recent chemistry with Duchene, the scribe believes that a top-six winger should get a good return for the team, whether that be in prospects, picks or both. The 28-year-old has had three straight 25+ goal seasons and still has two years remaining after this one on his contract for a $5.19MM AAV. Hoffman currently has 11 goals and 29 points in 42 games. The money the team would save from moving Hoffman could be used to lock up Mark Stone, who the franchise has deemed untouchable along with defenseman Erik Karlsson. Veteran Derick Brassard is also not going anywhere.

Zack Smith’s contract and hard-nosed style has also drawn many calls from other teams, while Garrioch adds that defenseman Johnny Oduya and fourth-liner Alexandre Burrows are veterans and have received some attention as well. The 29-year-old Smith still has three years on his $3.25MM AAV deal, which isn’t too high of a price for a solid center. The 36-year-old Oduya has been solid on the team’s third pairing, but has more than 100 games of playoff experience, while the 36-year-old Burrows has 85 games of playoff experience as well. Garrioch does suggest that while youngster Jean-Gabriel Pageau is a trade candidate, it’s unlikely that he will be traded as he’s still a quality young player.

 

Who Is On Pace To Score 60 Points In 2017-18?

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In 2016-17, only 42 NHLers hit the 60-point benchmark for the season. It was the lowest total since the 2012-13 lockout-shortened season (obviously), when only Martin St. Louis notched sixty, and down eleven from the 53 players who hit the mark two years earlier in 2014-15. However, with scoring up this season in the NHL, will the league increase it’s number of top scorers? Or will a greater depth and distribution of talent continue to limit players from reaching the high numbers of yesteryear?

As of now, with the 2017 segment of the season about to close, here are the players on pace for 60 points in 2017-18:

  1. Nikita Kucherov, Tampa Bay Lightning – Currently: 54 points in 37 games, Projection: 120 points
  2. Steven Stamkos, Tampa Bay Lightning – Currently: 48 points in 37 games, Projection: 107 points
  3. John Tavares, New York Islanders – Currently: 49 points in 38 games, Projection: 106 points
  4. Josh Bailey, New York Islanders – Currently: 49 points in 38 games, Projection: 106 points
  5. Jakub Voracek, Philadelphia Flyers – Currently: 46 points in 38 games, Projection: 99 points
  6. Claude Giroux, Philadelphia Flyers – Currently: 46 points in 38 games, Projection: 99 points
  7. Connor McDavid, Edmonton Oilers – Currently: 45 points in 38 games, Projection: 97 points
  8. Nathan MacKinnon, Colorado Avalanche – Currently: 43 points in 37 games, Projection: 95 points
  9. Blake Wheeler, Winnipeg Jets – Currently: 44 points in 39 games, Projection: 93 points
  10. Johnny Gaudreau, Calgary Flames – Currently: 41 points in 38 games, Projection: 89 points
  11. Phil Kessel, Pittsburgh Penguins – Currently: 41 points in 39 games, Projection: 86 points
  12. Alex Ovechkin, Washington Capitals – Currently: 41 points in 40 games, Projection: 84 points
  13. Anze Kopitar, Los Angeles Kings – Currently: 40 points in 39 games, Projection: 84 points
  14. Anders Lee, New York Islanders – Currently: 39 points in 38 games, Projection: 84 points
  15. Patrick Kane, Chicago Blackhawks – Currently: 38 points in 37 games, Projection: 84 points
  16. Brock Boeser*, Vancouver Canucks – Currently: 38 points in 36 games, Projection: 84 points
  17. Brayden Schenn, St. Louis Blues – Currently: 41 points in 41 games, Projection: 82 points
  18. Brad Marchand, Boston Bruins – Currently: 32 points in 29 games, Projection: 82 points
  19. Jon Marchessault, Vegas Golden Knights – Currently: 34 points in 33 games, Projection: 81 points
  20. Evgeny Kuznetsov, Washington Capitals – Currently: 39 points in 40 games, Projection: 80 points
  21. Taylor Hall, New Jersey Devils – Currently: 36 points in 36 games, Projection: 80 points
  22. Jonathan Huberdeau, Florida Panthers – Currently: 36 points in 38 games, Projection: 78 points
  23. Vincent Trocheck, Florida Panthers – Currently: 36 points in 38 games, Projection: 78 points
  24. Mathew Barzal*, New York Islanders – Currently: 36 points in 38 games, Projection: 78 points
  25. Sean Couturier, Philadelphia Flyers – Currently: 36 points in 38 games, Projection: 78 points
  26. Evgeni Malkin, Pittsburgh Penguins – Currently: 35 points in 35 games, Projection: 78 points
  27. Vladimir Tarasenko, St. Louis Blues – Currently: 38 points in 41 games, Projection: 76 points
  28. Jack Eichel, Buffalo Sabres – Currently: 35 points in 38 games, Projection: 75 points
  29. David Pastrnak, Boston Bruins – Currently: 34 points in 37 games, Projection: 75 points
  30. Mark Stone, Ottawa Senators – Currently: 34 points in 37 games, Projection: 75 points
  31. Brayden Point, Tampa Bay Lightning – Currently: 34 points in 37 games, Projection: 75 points
  32. Sidney Crosby, Pittsburgh Penguins – Currently: 35 points in 39 games, Projection: 74 points
  33. Jamie Benn, Dallas Stars – Currently: 35 points in 39 games, Projection: 74 points
  34. David Perron, Vegas Golden Knights – Currently: 29 points in 30 games, Projection: 74 points
  35. Evander Kane, Buffalo Sabres – Currently: 34 points in 38 games, Projection: 73 points
  36. Aleksander Barkov, Florida Panthers – Currently: 33 points in 37 games, Projection: 73 points
  37. Mikko Rantanen, Colorado Avalanche – Currently: 33 points in 37 games, Projection: 73 points
  38. Leon Draisaitl, Edmonton Oilers – Currently: 32 points in 34 games, Projection: 73 points
  39. Auston Matthews, Toronto Maple Leafs – Currently: 29 points in 29 games, Projection: 72 points
  40. Artemi Panarin, Columbus Blue Jackets – Currently: 34 points in 39 games, Projection: 71 points
  41. Tyler Seguin, Dallas Stars – Currently: 34 points in 39 games, Projection: 71 points
  42. Vlad Namestnikov, Tampa Bay Lightning – Currently: 32 points in 37 games, Projection: 71 points
  43. Eric Staal, Minnesota Wild – Currently: 33 points in 39 games, Projection: 70 points
  44. Ryan Getzlaf, Anaheim Ducks – Currently: 18 points in 15 games, Projection: 70 points
  45. Sean Monahan, Calgary Flames – Currently: 32 points in 38 games, Projection: 69 points
  46. Dylan Larkin, Detroit Red Wings – Currently: 31 points in 37 games, Projection: 69 points
  47. John Klingberg, Dallas Stars – Currently: 32 points in 39 games, Projection: 67 points
  48. William Karlsson, Vegas Golden Knights – Currently: 29 points in 36 games, Projection: 66 points
  49. Gabriel Landeskog, Colorado Avalanche – Currently: 28 points in 33 games, Projection: 66 points
  50. Shayne Gostisbehere, Philadelphia Flyers – Currently: 29 points in 35 games, Projection: 66 points
  51. Nicklas Backstrom, Washington Capitals – Currently: 31 points in 39 games, Projection: 65 points
  52. Alexander Radulov, Dallas Stars – Currently: 31 points in 39 games, Projection: 65 points
  53. Patrik Laine, Winnipeg Jets – Currently: 31 points in 39 games, Projection: 65 points
  54. Clayton Keller*, Arizona Coyotes – Currently: 31 points in 40 games, Projection: 64 points
  55. John Carlson, Washington Capitals – Currently: 31 points in 40 games, Projection: 64 points
  56. Reilly Smith, Vegas Golden Knights – Currently: 28 points in 36 games, Projection: 64 points
  57. Nikolaj Ehlers, Winnipeg Jets – Currently: 30 points in 39 games, Projection: 63 points
  58. P.K. Subban, Nashville Predators – Currently: 29 points in 38 games, Projection: 62 points
  59. Mats Zuccarello, New York Rangers – Currently: 29 points in 38 games, Projection: 62 points
  60. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Edmonton Oilers – Currently: 29 points in 38 games, Projection: 62 points
  61. Teuvo Teravainen, Carolina Hurricanes – Currently: 29 points in 38 games, Projection: 62 points
  62. Sebastian Aho, Carolina Hurricanes – Currently: 29 points in 38 games, Projection: 62 points
  63. James Neal, Vegas Golden Knights – Currently: 27 points in 36 games, Projection: 62 points
  64. Kyle Turris, Nashville Predators – Currently: 27 points in 34 games, Projection: 62 points
  65. Danton Heinen*, Boston Bruins – Currently: 26 points in 33 games, Projection: 62 points
  66. Drew Doughty, Los Angeles Kings – Currently: 29 points in 39 games, Projection: 61 points
  67. Dustin Brown, Los Angeles Kings – Currently: 29 points in 39 games, Projection: 61 points
  68. Mitch Marner, Toronto Maple Leafs – Currently: 29 points in 39 games, Projection: 61 points
  69. Jordan Eberle, New York Islanders – Currently: 28 points in 38 games, Projection: 61 points
  70. Joe Thornton, San Jose Sharks – Currently: 26 points in 35 games, Projection: 61 points
  71. Mikael Granlund, Minnesota Wild – 27 points in 34 games, Projection: 61 points
  72. Rickard Rakell, Anaheim Ducks – Currently: 27 points in 34 games, Projection: 61 points
  73. Tyler Johnson, Tampa Bay Lightning – Currently: 27 points in 36 games, Projection: 61 points
  74. Erik Haula, Vegas Golden Knights – Currently: 25 points in 32 games, Projection: 61 points
  75. Victor Hedman, Tampa Bay Lightning – Currently: 27 points in 37 games, Projection: 60 points
  76. Patrice Bergeron, Boston Bruins- Currently: 25 points in 32 games, Projection: 60 points
  77. Erik Karlsson, Ottawa Senators – Currently: 25 points in 32 games, Projection: 60 points

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Senators Preparing To Move Players

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Following a convincing 5-1 loss to the Boston Bruins last night – the same team they knocked out in the playoffs last season yet trail by 15 points in 2017-18 – the Ottawa Sun’s Bruce Garrioch writes that GM Pierre Dorion is ready to make some changes. It has been well reported to this point that the Senator’s struggles this season are real and, with the franchise’s future offering more questions than answers, there is a possibility of a fire sale and rebuild in the near future.

While earlier reports indicated that all-world defenseman Erik Karlsson may even be up for grabs, Garrioch says that Dorion has changed his tune, with the word being that Karlsson and young winger Mark Stone are the only untouchables on the Senators roster. Logic would dictate that promising rookies Thomas Chabot and Filip Chlapik are likely on that list as well, but the entire remainder of the roster could be up for grabs at the right price.

The shortlist offered up by Garrioch of the top trade bait includes winger Mike Hoffman, centers Derick Brassard and Jean-Gabriel Pageau and young defenseman Cody Ceci. While they might be harder to move, the team would surely like to get rid of Bobby Ryan and Dion Phaneuf as well. Of that group, the most intriguing name is definitely Hoffman, who by every metric is a top six scoring winger and would be of major interest to many teams across the league. While he may net the Senators a strong return, Hoffman is signed through 2020 at a reasonable $5.2MM and may be a player that Ottawa would regret moving on from.

Changes are coming to Ottawa. It could be a major trade tomorrow or it could be a series of smaller moves up until the Trade Deadline or perhaps even this off-season. However, Dorion is ready to make moves now and, with few pure sellers at this point in the season, the Senators will be a team to watch for the remainder of the 2017-18 campaign.

What Your Team Is Thankful For: Ottawa Senators

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As the holiday season approaches, PHR will look at what teams are thankful for as the season nears the quarter point of completion. There also might be a few things your team would like down the road. We take a look at what’s gone well in the first month and what could improve as the season rolls on. So far we’ve covered the following teams:

Atlantic: BOS, BUF, DET, FLA, MON, TOR
Metropolitan: CAR, CBJ, NJD, NYI, NYR, PHI, PIT, WSH
Central: COL, MIN, NSH, STL
Pacific: ANA, ARZ, CGY, EDM, LAK, SJS, VAN, VGK

What are the Senators most thankful for?

They have to be thankful for that no matter how bad things have gotten in Ottawa in recent weeks, the Senators are only six points away from earning a playoff spot in the Atlantic Division. Shocking isn’t it. The Boston Bruins, currently holding the third playoff spot in the division, have 35 points, while Ottawa has 29 points with their 11-13-7 record. While that might require the team to actually win a few games, a sudden turnaround could easily have them competing for a playoff spot. The team might also be thankful for a solid performance at Saturday’s Centennial Classic where they shutout the Montreal Canadiens 3-0 in front of a national audience.

Who are the Senators most thankful for?

Several players are having solid seasons, but the play of Mark Stone has been solid this season. Even while on a current scoring drought (one goal in the past 13 games), he leads the team with 14 goals in 31 games, which should be an improvement over the 22 goals he had last season in 71 games. His defensive abilty is also a big plus on the ice. What’s even better is that he is just a restricted free agent next season, so the team has some remaining control of the 25 year old. In all likelihood, even if the team begins a rebuild, it’s likely Stone will be considered a part of that and wouldn’t be shipped off for picks or prospects.

What would the Senators be even more thankful for?

More than anything, the team needs to see some production from Matt Duchene. After trading away Kyle Turris, prospects and picks to win the Duchene sweepstakes, the 26-year-old center hasn’t improved the team’s offense at all and so far looks like the team may have made a mistake. He has six goals and nine assists in 31 games this season, but Duchene has put up just two goals and three assists in the 17 games that he’s been with the Senators. The team needs him to figure things out and begin leading a line that can put points on the board every night. It doesn’t help that the Nashville Predators addition of Turris only seems to have helped them. Turris has four goals and 13 assists in his 17 games with the Predators, which only makes the deal look worse.

What should be on the Senators Holiday Wish List?

The Senators have found themselves in the news for many things, but defenseman Erik Karlsson’s comments that he won’t take a hometown discount when he becomes an unrestricted free agent in 2019 didn’t sit well with many fans or their owner. In a perfect world, the Senators would find a way to recapture the magic they had a year ago and find a way to convince Karlsson to sign long-term and pay him what he’s worth. The question is what is the long-term plans for this franchise. Are they playing to win or should they blow up their team and rebuild for the future? A rebuild would go much quicker if they trade Karlsson, but finding a franchise defenseman isn’t an easy task either.

Ottawa Senators Plummet While Trade Speculation Heats Up

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The Ottawa Senators were within a goal of the Stanley Cup Final last season. On the backs of heroic performances by Erik Karlsson and Craig Anderson, a trapping, defensive team pushed the Pittsburgh Penguins to the brink of elimination before bowing out in double overtime of game seven. That had fans of the team excited about this season, and pushing for GM Pierre Dorion to add to a team that was close to the Stanley Cup.

As former NHL executive Frank Provenzano notes for The Athletic though, thinking your team is close to winning it all after one unexpected playoff run can be dangerous. Provenzano is among the first (of what is sure to be many) to suggest what had previously been unthinkable: perhaps it’s time to consider trading Karlsson.

Erik KarlssonJust a few weeks ago the Senators went out and added Matt Duchene, bringing in a former Olympian who was expected to kick-start their offense. The fact that he had just a year and a half left on his deal (coincidentally the same length as Karlsson) didn’t matter, as they were close enough that he could push them over the edge right away. They needed to move out Kyle Turris (and several other pieces) to do so, but he seemed unlikely to re-sign with the team after this season when he became an unrestricted free agent. The problem there is, as Craig Button screamed into the radio airwaves yesterday on TSN 1050, “they traded a better player for a lesser player.” Button believes Turris is better than Duchene right now, and the early returns would back him up.

Turris has 12 points in 13 games for the Nashville Predators since the deal, while Duchene has just two. The Senators meanwhile have gone 3-8-1 with Duchene in the lineup, including losing seven of their last eight in regulation. That has seen them tumble down in the standings, even as they play in arguably the weakest division in the NHL. As of Thursday, they find themselves ahead of only Buffalo in the Atlantic Division and tied with the Florida Panthers with 24 points. Not good enough for a team that expected to compete.

While the NHL season is far from over, and a rebound from the team is more than just possible, it may be time to start thinking about drastic changes to their core group. As noted above, Karlsson is only signed until the summer of 2019 and has made it clear that he’ll cost a boatload on the open market. Derick Brassard and Mike Hoffman are signed for one and two years respectively after this season, and are both no longer young players with years of improvement ahead of them. Mark Stone, the team’s best forward will hit restricted free agency this summer and should expect a big deal, but it’s not clear how long-term he’ll want to go with the club. Stone will turn 26 before the summer hits, and could get to unrestricted free agency himself with just a one-year deal.

It’s not over for the Senators just yet, but Provenzano’s article won’t be the first written about the possibility of a Karlsson trade. After July 1st hits, and an extension is possible, every passing day will fuel speculation on whether the team should move him before he hits the open market. As one of the most valuable players in the league, it’s not clear who would even have the guts to give up the kind of package Ottawa would need in return. But it’s an interesting possibility if the season continues to progress as it has so far for the Senators.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Failed Trade Might Prompt Senators To Move Turris Quickly

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After Friday night’s attempt to deal Ottawa Senators’ Kyle Turris to Nashville in a three-team trade fell through, don’t be surprised if the Ottawa Senators escalate their search for a trade partner to fix this rapidly awkward situation. While no one was surprised that Turris was not available for interview after the team’s 5-4 loss to the Vegas Golden Knights Saturday, the situation has become much more tense in the past 24 hours. Not only that, but the team is

Bruce Garrioch of The Ottawa Sun writes that an extension with Turris is highly unlikely, especially now. And the fact that Turris almost got traded to Nashville suggests the team isn’t planning on trying. Supposedly, he is asking for seven years at $6MM annually, while Ottawa is offering five years at similar money. And while that doesn’t seem like the negotiations are too far off and a bridge could be found, there are definitely questions whether they ought to lock up the 29-year-old center to a long-term deal. They already have 30-year-old Bobby Ryan locked up for four more years after this one at $7.25MM and don’t forget 32-year-old defenseman Dion Phaneuf is signed for three more years at $7MM. To add another long-term deal where all of them could begin to decline at once, could place the team into a hole the franchise might not recover from. They also have to consider long-term extensions for Erik Karlsson and Mark Stone as well.

That leaves the trade option. And Garrioch writes they need to move quickly, because the team can’t afford to let him walk away at the seasons’ end for nothing and Ottawa needs to get as much value as possible for Turris, so they don’t even have the luxury of waiting until the trade deadline.

The obvious deal would be to still make a deal for Colorado’s Matt Duchene, who they were supposed to get in the three-team for Turris, but since a third team was needed to make the deal, it’s obvious that Colorado has no interest in Turris and why would they want a 29-year-old soon-to-be free agent to join their rebuild? Would the Senators move a player like Thomas Chabot and more to acquire Duchene?

The Athletic’s James Gordon (subscription required) writes that Nashville might still be a viable option. They are obviously interested in Turris since they were trying to get him yesterday. However, what will the Senators get back in return? Would they be willing to take a package of young players and hope that their young talent like Colin White and Logan Brown are ready to produce now? However, a trade for youth could also hold up the team’s success another year or two, which won’t help their core of veteran players.

While the questions remain unanswered for the time being, the team’s loss to Vegas today reiterates that the Senators are a playoff bubble-team at best, so changes might be necessary no matter what to improve the franchise’s long-term options.

Senators Passed Up Chance To Unload Ryan

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One of the few players who was heavily anticipated to become a Vegas Golden Knight did not – Bobby Ryan. Despite an above-average playoff performance in the Senators’ heartbreaking Conference Final run, Ryan has vastly under-performed relative to his contract. Instead of coordinating a deal to unload that contract to Vegas, they instead lost Marc Methot, perhaps the second best defenseman on the team in that Cinderella story. Methot’s contract was not perfect, to be sure, but Ryan’s deal still looms large over the team for years.

It should be noted that Ryan has been a consistent 50+ point producer prior to this season, where he tallied only 25 through 62 contests. He’s been on pace for over 50 every year since he was a rookie. That said, his fall from grace in 2016-17was concerning and dramatic. His puck control seriously declined, his decision making faltered, and his production took a nosedive. With only 12 goals, and coming off a hot post-season, the time was ripe for GM Pierre Dorion to take advantage of Vegas’ unique situation and rid himself of a bad contract. Earning $7.25 MM AAV for the next five seasons, Ryan is the 36th highest paid forward in the league, and second-highest on the payroll behind Erik Karlsson.

For those who believe such an arrangement could not have been worked out, merely look at some of the contracts Vegas did take on. The essentially retired David Clarkson’s $5.25 MM for the next 3 seasons was shipped out at the price of a first and a 2020 second. The perennially concussed Mikhail Grabovski was dealt for a similar package, which also protected some of the Islanders’ players. Vegas also didn’t shy away from taking veteran players with value – they selected James Neal (29 years old) from Nashville as well as David Perron from the Blues (29 years old). Certainly, with a little encouragement, George McPhee might have entertained the possibility of Ryan as a Knight. The price may have been steep, but Karlsson is in the prime of his career, while many players are looking for raises in the immediate future. Clearing Ryan’s albatross off the books may have gone a long way towards building toward a consistent contender.

Ultimately, Dorion decided against unloading a bloated contract in hopes that Ryan’s post-season revival was no mirage. With the UFA crop available, it’s difficult to blame the management for doubling down on the struggling winger. Five roster players will be UFA after this season, including Craig Anderson and Kyle Turris, while Mark Stone (RFA) has earned a raise. Karlsson will then be due a raise for 2019-20, as will five other forwards. The team will need to rely upon cost-effective ELC players and bargain contracts to continue holding pace with the rest of the Atlantic division. Only time will tell whether the Ryan decision was the correct one.

Ottawa’s Expansion Conundrum

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The Ottawa Senators are in for a tough decision come the completion of their playoff run, whenever that might be. Ottawa has a team which is built upon depth and scoring by committee, but each NHL team can only protect 7 forwards, 3 defensemen, and 1 goaltender – or alternatively, 8 total skaters and 1 goaltender in the upcoming expansion draft. The Senators are in a situation where they will likely prefer to lose a veteran with a large contract. This seems doubly true because the organization is believed to have an internal cap for financial reasons, and will need to clear space in order to hand out hefty raises to Mark Stone and Kyle Turris following the 2017-18 campaign.

Obviously, Erik Karlsson, Stone, Turris, and Mike Hoffman will be protected. Karlsson is a perennial Norris favorite, captain of the team, and one of the best offensive defensemen the game has seen in decades. Stone and Hoffman are the driving forces behind offensive production, and are both on the young end of their primes. Turris has finally, fully come into his own as a number one center, posting  a 27 goal, 55 point season. Considering the price to acquire him (Mika Zibanejad) and the relative value of centers to this team which isn’t too formidable up the middle, Derick Brassard also seems a certainty to stay. Craig Anderson is the obvious pick in net. He’s been an absolute rock that the team has depended on the past few seasons, and this year was simply extraordinary. Cody Ceci is also a rather safe bet, consider minutes logged, age, and his role on the back-end. Marc Methot should seemingly be a core piece to the defense as well, but as we will soon see, his situation is far more complicated. So, in terms of definitely protected players:

Forward:    Hoffman, Stone, Turris, Brassard

Defense:    Karlsson, Ceci

Goalie:    Anderson

That leaves 3 forwards and 1 defensemen, or, alternatively, 2 total skaters to protect. It seems somewhat unlikely (although not impossible) that they will opt for the latter option. If we look at the potential list of who can be protected, there are no easy answers. Up front, Alexandre Burrows seems to have been a solid fit, as he has played well since being promoted to Turris’ right wing on the top line, and his cap hit drops to a measly $2.5 MM going forward. Zack Smith has been a more-than-capable third-line center, and is signed to a cap-friendly deal for four years after this. Bobby Ryan is incredibly overpaid ($7.25 MM) considering his performance this past year (25 points), but has expressed his profound disappointment in his own season to the relative acceptance of the fanbase. It doesn’t hurt his cause that he has been Ottawa’s best skater this post-season by far, leading the team with 7 points through 6 games. Jean-Gabriel Pageau and Ryan Dzingel could also receive consideration for a protected forward spot, but only one is likely to remain unguarded.

In terms of defense, Dion Phaneuf has a bloated contract which would be especially helpful to be rid of. Phaneuf is getting an absurd $7 MM per year , but he is on the “must-protect” list due to his modified no-trade, no-movement clause. The team could ask him to waive, but considering his solid play of late, this is more difficult to conceive. There is also no guarantee that Vegas would be interested in the player. The up-and-coming Fredrik Claesson is exempt from the expansion draft and needs no protection. Therefore, it seems likely that Methot ($4.9 MM) will be the odd man out, as he would likely be exposed in the 7-3 option. This would be a difficult pill for Ottawa fans to swallow, as Methot has arguably been their best shutdown player and he logs a ton of tough minutes.

For a team that has worked so hard to shore up its back-end and add depth up front, there are no easy solutions for GM Pierre Dorion. If you lose Methot, you lose your best defensive defenseman – if you expose a resurgent Ryan, you surrender a creative offensive weapon. Either way, Vegas is likely going to pick one of its integral players from Canada’s capital city.

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